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Coral Eclipse Stks.

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Replies: 242
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:03
sorry didn't take off the 3lb penalty. which changes it to 1.42 riz, 7.1 bye bye.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:04
Thanks Sandown. That does make sense.
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 13:10
fabulous looking filly that  Reezena , if they paid out on sheer presence ExcitedGrin
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:13
well could not have picked that one.
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 13:14
but they don't , ground?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:15
I wonder if she went off a bit quick in the albany into that headwind
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 13:18
Winner was second worst on my figures! Just as well Rizeena was too short for me to back, whereas I'll take that kind of price on an older horse (I have backed Sky Lantern) I always want a bit more value for a 2yo. Some punters apparently specialise in backing 2yos but I find them a bit erratic for my liking. Rizeena stumbled out of the stalls and never looked happy.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:19
she did finish those last 2f slowly in the albany. I really should have done my sectionals that day
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:20
although I wouldn't have marked her up enough to get anywhere near Rizeena
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:27
based on first 2 races I shall be looking at a figure of 106 for Lucky Kristale now. 1lb lower than what I gave to Rizeena at Ascot
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:38
rubbish that chord guest. actually that sartorious had my best 2ns best speed figure at the weights on the thirsk run. should have had a saver really at that price
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:38
rubbish that chord guest. actually that sartorious had my best 2ns best speed figure at the weights on the thirsk run. should have had a saver really at that price
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 13:46
you put one up Stevie , that is what counts
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 13:47
Disappointing to see Hughes content to let the race turn into a sprint finish, nullifying his weight advantage, but I suspected as much when I made the bet, so I knew of the risk.
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 13:47
just backed  E kate , same old tactics of veering across course to win , but they all do it now
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 13:49
Sorry for the aftertiming Stevie but I had Sartorialist best in, the only trouble is I never backed him Cry
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 13:51
I also  am in line for  visit by  AT inspector Whoops done it again
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:54
I thought after the 1st 1/2 furlong hughes was going to make it but then he dropped back
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:56
Figgis, i'm not surprised as the thirsk time was good unless like me you downgraded it a touch for being first race on softish ground. thought it may have got chewed up after that.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 13:59
you might still get this figgis
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 14:00
Yes, Stevie, I thought so too. I think jockeys are often too scared (and tactically naïve) to take control of a race, particularly on a better class horse, when ironically it is on the better horses that they should make use of that speed advantage. Having said that, there is no proof that she'd have won anyway.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 14:04
anyone having a bet in the sprint. Secretinthepark has my highest figure for the win in 2000 guineas day. hoping the break since last time sees him return to form
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 14:10
No bet for me, Stevie, but I agree with your top rated, that win must've taken a lot out of him, will be interesting to see if he returns to that form.
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 14:12
robot boy  and chillworth icon   a couple of likely  ones  at prices  now Burning blaze out gl
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 14:12
did you change your going allowance after rain burst that day?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 14:13
gl mac
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 14:18
On Guineas day you mean? Yes, I have the ground getting slower from the Guineas onwards, which explains why many rated the Guineas slower than I have it. Actually there's an argument that the 5f race was more wind assisted than the others anyway, as the first race didn't look particularly slowly run to my eyes, however, that's debatable.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 14:21
blimey that elusive kate race was slow
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 14:27
anyway I think we've gone off topic about the eclipse for long enough. time for the thread to drop off the page weighed down with all my losers
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 12 Jul 13 20:24
Personally I don't see anything wrong with Al Kazeem's rating. Again the eclipse was a smart performance, took time to get to the winner but was well in charge at the finish. Some horses will always just do enough to win, it doesn't necessarily mean they aren't very good animals. We will see in the Arc exactly how good but to win three group 1's on the bounce takes a certain toughness which shouldn't be discounted in the horses ability.
By:
jair1970
When: 12 Jul 13 22:42
This is a good thread, don't give up on it. Sod the Eclipse!  :)
By:
Sandown
When: 14 Jul 13 12:56
Trainer Roger Charlton confirmed he does not intend to run Al Kazeem on fast ground again this season. He said: "He is on his holidays and he's very happy. We've seen a few races this week when horses haven't produced their form on fast ground and that can happen.

"He really wants good or good to soft ground and I don't think I'll get away with running him for a fourth time on really quick ground. Hopefully by August or September we'll have some really nice, fresh ground and he can go for the Juddmonte International or the Irish Champion Stakes.

"There's also the Champion Stakes which is a special race, but the Arc is worth £2.2 million to the winner and he is disputing favouritism for that, so that has to be his main aim."



RP July 14



As I suspected, it seems that the ground was too firm for AK and his antics at the end were mostl likely due to that fact. His performance was very meritorious in the circumstances. Nevertheless, it was yet another hard race and the effects will tell. But I belive that his rating is fair. He could rate higher given ideal conditions - after a long break.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 13 13:10
I'd have to disagree with Charlton on that. Of AK's 12 races half of them have been on G/F and I've not seen any improvement in his form when it's been slower. Good or slower ground might be better for the horse's legs long term (debatable as softer ground can also be responsible for leg problems) but I doubt that it will allow him to run any faster.
By:
Sandown
When: 14 Jul 13 13:37
AK has improved this year and won three G1's all on GF ground so clearly he will go on fast ground. But its clearly a case of "in spite of" and not "because of" and that is down to the fact that he is a heavy-topped horse who doesn't have a fast ground action. We can credit him with courage in so doing. It's not a case of whether he can run "faster" relatively speaking but a case of doing so more comfortably and possibly with greater reserves as a result. He has to beat other horses not run fast times. We mustn't be blinkered into thinking that's all that matters.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 13 13:54
Sandown

I know times are not the be all and end all, I can't see how anyone could hope to profit believing that. I also know that until a horse is beaten we really can't say for sure how good it isn't. However, I also know that sooner rather than later a top horse will run a fast time. The longer a horse goes without achieving a good time performance the more doubtful I become. Especially one that, to me, doesn't look like he has loads in reserve.

The point is that AK is being regarded as a top class horse. In my opinion he hasn't proved he's up to the usual standard I would expect of a multiple Gp1 winner. It all comes down to price. If AK was widely regarded as fluking his wins and priced up accordingly I would be looking for the possibility that he was underrated. As things stand I think he's overrated, so I am only interested in opposing him when I get the chance.

It depends how you play the game. Some people like to try to take something from every race they bet in. Therefore you can make reasoned arguments for why half the field can win and cover them accordingly for a small steady profit. That isn't my approach. While I'm not as gung ho as I used to be years ago, I still like to make a decision and go with it, knowing I'll have my fair share of losers but have confidence that the winners will outweigh the losses.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 14 Jul 13 14:25
Good to read that, he deserves a nice rest and I hope he comes back fresh and well and ready to run to his best with no excuses.

As for the ratings, to me it just exposes the flaws with collateral ratings and race standardisation. Mukhadram 125 is 1lb higher than Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey. Laughable
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 Jul 13 14:28
Have to agree - AK is nothing more than a decent enough Group 2 horse (115+/-?) to my eyes.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 13 15:13
Just to emphasise the point about the price influencing the decisions, I backed AK in the Tattersalls. I had him with a 2lb advantage over Camelot. As I don't make automatic adjustments for wfa improvements Camelot still had to prove to me he had improved as a 4yo. For all I knew he could well have done, but I thought AK was a value price in the circumstances. I had AK highest rated in the POW, but even though I couldn't see what would beat him I had him on a lower than average mark for the race and thought he was vulnerable to an improver so decided not to back him. As it turned out this was the wrong decision, but at the price I didn't kick myself too much over it.

It's sometimes difficult to know whether to back your highest rated horse when he's still lower than you'd normally expect the winner to be. One of my big regrets was not backing Benny The Dip in that year's Derby at a big price. Aside from the Guineas winner Entrepreneur, who was unproven further than a mile and imo had looked to have a hard race, BTD was highest rated but not up to average standard. I thought surely something will come along a bit better on the day and was routing for Silver Patriarch on the run in to spare me one of those "if only" moments. BTD prevailed by a torturous short head.

Anyway, back to AK. I again had him narrowly highest rated in a substandard Eclipse but saw no value in his price. I took the view that Declaration Of War didn't have much to find and could probably be a bit better than his Queen Anne run. In hindsight this was obviously wrong, the Queen Anne win is as good as he is and he probably peaked there. At the price he was, though, it's not a bet I regret too much, it wasn't impossible he could've improved again and I've certainly had worse bets. AK might go on to prove he's been fooling me all along, keeping a bit for himself and that he is indeed a proper Gp1 horse. If he does I'll take it on the chin and freely admit I was wrong, as I know that more often when I oppose such horses I'm right.
By:
Sandown
When: 14 Jul 13 15:32
Figgis

Camelot may be an example of a horse which gets bottomed/has a very hard race and then takes a long time to recover. I believe that the Irish derby win in heavy ground was such a run and the Arc trip just made matters worse. I've often thought this about really gruelling races and their after effect. The Grand national can do it, so can the Arc and the Melbourne Cup especially if a trip is involved.Doubt if they will keep Camelot in training for another season but if they did I wouldn't be surprised if he performed much better.Think of other sports like boxing. Ali and Frazier took a huge amount out of each other after The Thriller in Manilla.They were never the same afterwards.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Jul 13 15:50
Yes, I completely agree. There is a lot of revisionism going on now about Camelot's Derby, but while not being the very best I've seen it was up with the better ones, certainly better than average. I still believe his Guineas was the worst I've seen over the last few years, but that's not too bad for a horse seen more as a middle distance prospect. In a decent year he might've got a place. I had no financial interest in him for the Derby, so no reason to want to overrate him, but I'm not going to downgrade the performance now just because he's regressed.

This is another important issue we have to deal with every time we see a horse clock a fast time, or a few fast times. On one hand I'm enthusiastic, but then I always have to wonder how much it will have taken out of the horse. Sometimes the fault lies with me and I've overrated a performance, other times it's just that the horse is no longer able to run to that form again, probably because of a physical problem. I'm sure with Camelot it's a case of the latter.
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