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Coral Eclipse Stks.

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Replies: 242
By:
Sandown
When: 11 Jul 13 13:00
I am very sanguine about whether others have doubts about the value of using sectional times and their  quantification into ratings. Truth be told, from a purely personal point of view,I'd rather not have others get involved in their use.The more that do, the less the edge will provide value. What is true that the interpretation of sectionals has taken me quite a long time to perfect. So, even if the availability of sectionals increases (which I doubt as their provision isn't of commercial value) I doubt that many will have the desire or the expertise to invest a goodly amount of their time.Needless to say, I do not spout on about each and every race for fear that my methods will become too clear. So, no proselytizing from me lads.Grin
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:04
Sandown

Just out of curiosity, what did you make of The Fugue in the POW. I know she was reckoned to have done a good late sectional and that some reckoned it meant she was capable of troubling the colts. Personally, I thought as the race was nothing special a fast late sectional didn't mean very much. For me, the best performance on the clock she'd ever given was last year's Musidora, which again wasn't particularly notable.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:05
Actually I had the POW perfectly matching the Musidora run.
By:
Sandown
When: 11 Jul 13 13:12
The run of SJH will have no bearing on War Command as on my ratings he is miles behind that one.I would lay him too, Figgis. Cue egg on face.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 13:15
well jallota and SJH ran well enough there to boost war command
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:21
I'm still happy enough with that to be against WC, providing he's up against other top 2yos, I'm not sure that will happen in his next race, though.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 13:23
well I had SJH 10lb behind Figure Of Speech so I'm not all that happy with it really. I will have to wait and see what ratings I come out with today before looking back at coventry. I'm sure Figure Of Speech is better than that.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 13:26
Something not right about that race with Whalewhrigh station not far behind. Will have to look back at race and sectionals
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:30
I think with the Coventry, Stevie, like lots of times when there's a wide margin winner, some behind didn't quite run to their optimum. SJH was probably a bit better than the bare form. Plus these lightly raced 2yos can be quite erratic. A fast time can be as much of a hinderance as a blessing. We remember the ones that go on but there are just as many that need time to recover, or never do.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:31
*hindrance
By:
Sandown
When: 11 Jul 13 13:33
Figgis

Just out of curiosity, what did you make of The Fugue in the POW


Well, I have a different interpretation for you to consider. The Fugue put up a better performance imo in the POW than in the Muisidora, so much so that I was not entirely surprised by her run at Sandown. The Ascot run followed a break of 7 months and then 17 days later she runs again. In the paddock at Sandown she looked out-classed by AK and DOW at least in terms of condition. Now, I'm not saying that she did bounce but it is entirely plausible that she did. She was not on my short list at Sandown, for sure, but she ran much worse than expected given she had her ground and her trip. That was not her form.

Forgive me, but no more from me until after racing.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 13:36
Fair enough, I'm sure that wasn't her true running, but still think she's never shown anything to suggest she can compete with colts at the highest level. She is, however, still lightly raced as a 4yo and open to more improvement.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 13:38
Jallota I had on 86 for Newmarket maiden and then 77 in coventry. I had Figure of Speech 94+ for his maiden win. So I am quite pleased that Jallota beat SJH as it does seem I may be right with that one in the coventry. Whaleweigh station I only had on 78 for his last run and he's only 2l behind today. So FOS must have run below best today as he beat that one 4l lto
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 13:48
looking at the last 2f sectionals, I will probably give mark ups of around 9 or 10lb to the winner and figure of speech and less for those up with the pace. I'll wait til they're all up on the turftrax site.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 14:20
Maputo impressive there. I think Goodwood Mirage needs 12f with cut.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 14:23
track record broken
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 15:53
not a great overall time from Montiridge there but some quick closing sectionals. 6f maiden pace was quite steady as well. Hopefully this 5f hcap will be truly run. wind 9mph behind I think.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 13 16:22
Maputo's time, while certainly being good, is another where it is definitely out of step with the rest of the card, imo, even allowing for some of the other races being less than truly run. Unfortunately when this happens the winning time is so exaggerated that it's obvious to all and sundry and often results in the horse being poor value next time.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 16:42
well I can't tell for sure but looking at the sectionals that came up on the screen even the 5f race was a little on the steady side. anyway need to do all my ratings and then study tomorrows so will have to get on with it.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 18:20
well at least the doncaster races proved easy to rate today and a good figure for muthmir in the maiden. still not sure what allowance to use for newmarket, going to wait for sectionals to appear on turftrax site.
By:
mac99
When: 11 Jul 13 18:29
Space ship  never in with a chance today , maputo magnificent , what can you say   , had it all  lined up for  a  good bet at Goodwood  , not far off monterosso  , maybe  better  , will they suupplement for the king george ?   120 performance   today , Shall steel myself  for the appearance of crazy faces !!   Goodwood Mirage unlucky to come up against    Mob  pace tactics from Johnston
team ,  gets   ten furlongs  alright
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 18:37
yes even though they went quite quick both space ship and Goodwood mirage could not make up enough ground from the back, possibly they could both be a bit better. I'm looking at around 111 on my figures for maputo which isn't bad.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 11 Jul 13 19:42
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking-data-newmarket-july2013.html

sectionals up now for those interested. im switching off. too much racing
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 06:51
Start rant.

backing  Spaceship yesterday was  not wise .  The fear that  WB  would sit well  off the pace  turned out to be the reality  .The Horse  stays a mile  and a half  , he was not badly drawn  in the proper sense of that word ie drawn wide on a turning Track ,   there was little  to be gained  by hold up tactics  he was not a doubtful stayer    nor was the  ground  soft ,  a pace collapse  in the last furlong or so  was improbable

Perhaps some top Jockeys  would benefit from  a few rides over the  Sticks  were  at least on   quick ground such exaggerated waiting  tactics  are seldom employed  , that way instead of the usual   routine  debrief  at the end of a  big race    they might  experience  the  visible  anger   of  connections who  could have done  with the  ten or fifteen grand place money !  ,

Seasoned  professional riders  like  G .Lee and  Johny .Murtagh do not set their mounts  impossible tasks,  neither to be fair does  Dettori  , R.Moor has weaned himself off the practise  and become a great Jockey in doing so    . WB is a great rider with   top of the range  timing and strength in a finnish   but he still  on ocassions   needs to  use a bit of common sense   if he is to stay at the top,    all  imo , the winner   would have  won  whatever tactics  were employed , but that is not the point

end of Pocket talking rantCry did hedge so no great damage done Wink
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 07:08
Stevie

will check out those sectional , should be  revealing
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 07:51
yes lots of interrsting sectionals yesterday.

Have a look at the 5f race this compared to last year

Jedward 1st 2f
13.36
10.61

Last sovereign
14.31
10.88

Jedward final 2f
11.43
13.10

Last sovereign final 2f
10.72
11.63

Final 2f fininishing speed
Jedward 97.36%
Last Sov 104.41%

So can you see how different the pace was in both those
races. Anyway I have done my speed figures and sectional mark ups now and quite happy with them. GL today
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 09:41
I expected Sky Lantern to be shorter. On these terms I have her 9lbs in hand of Giofra and 12lbs in hand of Elusive Kate. I've made no allowance for EK improving with age, as there was no sign of it in the Queen Anne. It was her first run of the year so she still might improve but even if she does it's highly unlikely to be as much as 12lbs. A slow pace would reduce the benefit of the weight allowance, nevertheless I'd still make SL much shorter.
By:
mac99
When: 12 Jul 13 09:53
Burning blaze
 
I thought   his two length defeat  of Cour  Valant last year was hot  stuff
and  then  very unlucky in running at  At newmarket   in May  gl
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 10:19
I have Elusive Kate on a 109 for her sun chariot which included my wfa allowance. Sky Lantern I have on 116. So 7lb difference plus another 3lb as my wfa is diff to bha one. so 10lb diff. But Elusive Kate could get the run of the race and I'm slightly worried SL might take a keen hold. so I may play in-running
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 10:25
probably my best bet of the day is Chord Chart in the ascot 6f nursery. I gave him a 70 at wolves plus an 18lb mark up for last 2f which puts him well clear on my ratings. So looks pretty good IF my mark up is correct. I've been steadily backing him all morning.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 10:31
of course if my mark up is wrong then he's a bad bet.
By:
Sandown
When: 12 Jul 13 11:59
stevie g

I gave him a 70 at wolves plus an 18lb mark up for last 2f


Be careful with 5f/6f races where because of the smaller relative difference between early furlongs and last 2f, and because sprints are usually fast from the off, I have found that projections using last 2f from these distances can considerably over-estimate potential.
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 12:26
How do you rate Rizeena, Stevie? I have her 7lbs clear, although she probably had a fairly hard race at Ascot and this is obviously 1f further.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 12:28
cheers sandown I shall bear that in mind.
Actually looking back at it I have him running the last 2
1.3s quicker than archie stevens in the claimer but the last 3 was only slightly quicker. they slowed down between the 3 and the 2 in the maiden with a time there a second slower than archie in the claimer around 12.5 v 13.5. although not that easy to get accurate sectionals.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 12:35
well if I used the same allowance at the curragh 6f as I used for the 7 that day then bye bye birdie is 12 lb behind. But I think it could me more like 6 behind if I change allowance. But think Rizeena should be hard to beat Figgis.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 12:38
form wise though if you thought Heart Focus ran to her naas form or even her Ascot form then Bye Bye Birdie is going to go close getting 3.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 12:42
and of course Queen Catrine could be anything, charlie hills has some really good 2yos this year
By:
Figgis
When: 12 Jul 13 12:50
My mistake, I have her 8lbs clear of Bye Bye Birdie, I think her Ascot run was top class, I don't rate the O'Brien filly too highly.
By:
Sandown
When: 12 Jul 13 12:54
stevie g

Just a little more clarification. IF a fast last 2f in a sprint is linked to a slowish first 3f then the projection can be false  because WHEN it comes to the horse running in a FAST early pace over the same sort of trip, then the horse will be running a reverse pace profile. Hope that helps.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 12 Jul 13 12:58
According to my spreadsheet. purely on my ratings she should 1.23 with bye bye birdie 15.38, 30.75 bar those 2. But I really need to look into changing my formula
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