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Fallen Angel
05 Jun 13 08:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 2,232 | Blogger: Fallen Angel's blog
This race could really break up could easily see it having less than 8 runners with so many uncertain plans for horses that have been entered. For me this had a very similar make up to the Canford cliffs vs Goldikova match up of a couple of years back.

I have taken plenty of the animal kingdom ante-post, the horse clocked a very good time when flying home in the breeders cup after a disrupted passage. Wise Dan certainly got the better run of the race with AK being shuffled back early on, finding trouble when first attempting to get going 2f from home and then charging home late. Wise Dan broke the track record in the race and i felt AK would have been a good deal closer had he had the same run, good / good to firm ground seems to be vital. Looks to be a bit of rain forecast next week but still should be good ground at a minimum before the start.

The other horse obviously to be worried about from my perspective is Farhh, who ran a really good race at Newbury. The problem I have with that form is the two horses in behind are rated 110 at best and I still feel Farrh is going to be better at 10f rather than 8f. This is a completely different test to Newbury and will be a much tougher race. I thought there was also still a possibility they go for the Prince of Wales which would be an added bonus.

Declearation of War looks much too short in the betting considering he wasn't good enough at Newbury when he looked beaten fair and square. His form in Ireland isn't great, appears to want softer than good ground and in any case I think he is 15 pounds off what is needed to win this race.

Didn't necessarily want to make firm conclusions on any of the rest until the 5 day decs but I could see most of them dropping away.  That most improved is 4th favourite says it all about the likely strenght in depth of the race.

Be interesting to know the thoughts of those on here
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Report harry callaghan June 5, 2013 1:53 PM BST
Good write up angel glad you put it up was going to put it up myself...here was a write up on the horse if people hadn't read it...shame if farhh misses the race for me but until we know he is definite non runner i am holding fire as missed the 5's on animal when the book opened



BY PETER SCARGILL 6:44PM 4 JUN 2013

ANIMAL KINGDOM was on Tuesday cut to 2-1 (from 5-2) by Ladbrokes to land the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in two weeks as he continues to delight connections with his preparation for racing's most glamourous meeting.

Trained by Graham Motion for Team Valor, Animal Kingdom is adding yet another layer of international competition to Royal Ascot, which is also set to feature runners from Australia, South Africa, France and Germany, with the US-trained Dubai World Cup winner bang on target for the opening race of the fixture.

The 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, who is staying with David Lanigan in Lambourn, impressed many in a workout over the final four furlongs of the Queen Anne course at Ascot last week and hardened as favourite for the race with connections of chief rival Farhh considering a shot at the Prince of Wales's Stakes instead.

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Speaking from his base in the US, Motion said on Tuesday: "So far everything is going well and he has come out of his Ascot workout in great shape. He's going to do another piece of work tomorrow which I won't be there for, but I'll be over for his final piece next week."
Motion was on hand to watch Animal Kingdom at Ascot last week but has mainly been monitoring the progress of his star from the US.

He said: "Being in such a large country we're used to running satellite yards so I'm used to it this way, and it's such a neat thing to be involved with I'm just so excited about it."

The trainer has also been keeping a close eye on the weather and is hoping the sunshine and warm temperatures continue up until the start of the royal fixture.

He added: "I'd like the weather to stay the way it is at the moment, but I know what the weather is like so I know there's a chance it's going to rain before the day. So far everything is going to plan and I just wish the race was next week and not two weeks away."
Report bosra shame June 5, 2013 1:54 PM BST
Not sure Farhh will be better at 10f - has never actually won over the trip in its career.

It would be logical to send Farhh over the straight mile at Rotal Ascot which he has proved he excels at -   but with Sheikh Mo having an interest in AK,I can see it heading for the Prince of Wales, (which looks wide open).
Report EastLower Gooner June 5, 2013 7:12 PM BST
I'm with Bosra on this......the sheik mo part ownership probably means these two never meet.....at least we should get cracking odds in the POW....Al Kazeem probably making the market and it's not like Farhh has desperate form over 10f....felt last year he was just missing a few things from his game...he's a lot stronger and more professional this year...
Report Tucho June 5, 2013 7:17 PM BST
Had the same thoughts, I've been backing Animal Kingdom and am waiting for him in a decent multiple too, hoping the Sheikh would keep Farhh in the other race.

Got absolutely no idea what else is going to turn up in the race, it's one of those that looks just far too simple and now you're half expecting something to go wrong.
Report Fallen Angel June 5, 2013 7:59 PM BST
Obviously the price on Animal Kingdom has collapsed, I thought about waiting a couple of days before pilling in but glad I didn't wait as others obviously had the same idea. I agree tucho, I just stared at the list of entrants and couldn't see what else was certain to turn up. I can honestly see there being 6 runners and AK being 5/4 or 11/10 on the day if Farrh goes to the POW.

My thoughts on Farrh being better at 10f come purely from the race at York which I honestly feel is his best performance on form, beating SNA a head is top class run as I also feel that SNA has been hard done by on official ratings. I am no way discounting him, as to be fair the Newbury race was a excellent time, even if I don't feel the runner up and 3rd are up to the highest standard
Report Belmez June 5, 2013 9:59 PM BST
Cityscape seems to be the forgotten horse here and an e/w steal at 20/1.
His last run was too bad to be true with fast ground the apparent reason for this very bad run. With the weather forecast next week seemingly unsettled, I'm hoping for good ground and a much better run.
Animal Kingdom and Farhh (who looks likes running in POW) aside, it seems a weak looking renewal. Trade Storm (who appears to have significantly improved from 3 - 4) and Giofra deserve respect but based on last years form, Cityscape looks to have an outstanding chance of placing and potentially winning if things drop his way.
Report A_T June 5, 2013 10:51 PM BST
Farhh will hack up in this race if he runs. AK should really run in the PoW but this looks an easier opportunity to bag a European G1 so they'll probably send Farhh to the 10f race.
Report BJG June 6, 2013 2:46 PM BST
Cityscape sadly will not be running in the Queen Anne Stakes as he was slightly jarred up after the Lockinge and we will wait a little longer with him.
Report elisjohn June 6, 2013 5:13 PM BST
money yesterday suggested farhh pow, today looks queen anne
Report turnip turns June 8, 2013 10:35 AM BST
Farhh is out of Rascot,lame this morning.
Report turnip turns June 8, 2013 10:52 AM BST
Posted 08 June 2013, 10:10 GMT
Farhh was found to be lame behind after routine exercise on the morning of Saturday, June 8 and will miss his engagement at Royal Ascot.
Simon Crisford, the Godolphin racing manager, said: "Unfortunately, Farhh is lame today and cannot run at Royal Ascot.
"It is not possible to make plans for him at the moment but hopefully he will be back on the racecourse later this season."
Farhh was the impressive winner of the JLT Lockinge Stakes on his return to action this year on May 18 at Newbury.
He was entered in two Group One races at Royal Ascot, the mile Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday, June 18 and the 10-furlong Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday, June 19.
Report Figgis June 8, 2013 11:18 AM BST
Seems to be an awful lot of Godolphin horses that end up on the injury list.
Report Fallen Angel June 8, 2013 11:38 AM BST
This race AP movement has been the only high point of my month although couldn't have predicted Farhh would be withdrawn. I can see AK going off at something like 8/11 on now, he could be 10 pounds clear of anything else that runs in the race. Looks a very weak race now excluding the fav.
Report Senor El Betrutti June 8, 2013 11:56 AM BST
I was very keen on AK after his run in Dubai but his price is way too short now for a horse who has never run in this country. I'd rather have a decent EW bet on something where if the horse is placed the pay out is better than backing AK to win. I took 25/1 about Trade Storm as he seems to be improving and he doesn't have much to find, if anything, against the likes of Declaration Of War, Most Improved, Aljamaaheer or Sovereign Debt.
Report Millerracing67 June 8, 2013 12:55 PM BST
Fav looks a bit of a banker for the race now, as long as the ground is g/f.
Report Fallen Angel June 9, 2013 9:45 AM BST
yeah will be watching the weather closely.
Report Sterling Morrison June 9, 2013 6:13 PM BST
AK an awful price now
Report BJG June 9, 2013 6:45 PM BST
On what basis should he be bigger tho? Opposition is shocking i think
Report Senor El Betrutti June 9, 2013 9:07 PM BST
Personally I think AK is a fair price but I just don't get involved with odds on shots.
Report Tucho June 9, 2013 9:50 PM BST
yeah will be watching the weather closely

they're watering the course again tomorrow Cry

i thought they were predicting an unsettled week with a bit of rain
Report Fallen Angel June 10, 2013 9:56 PM BST
@BJG, I honestly think he should be even shorter. I know there are lots out there that don't like odds on shots but in all honesty I could make a case for him being 4/6 on or shorter, you start taking out all the likely non-runners and I could only get to an 85% book with the current view of who was going to turn up. This is a top class animal taking on Group 2 horses.
Report Fallen Angel June 10, 2013 9:57 PM BST
@tucho, this would be my only concern the race
Report ReaseHeath June 10, 2013 11:40 PM BST
agree the opposition looks like being weak but he's never won over a mile (OK, only tried twice and second both times), is only 2/4 on turf (yes, Ascot not dissimilar to AWT these days), won't have encountered similar ground before and is racing in an alien environment (yep, been here a while and well traveled).

Question is, what can beat him? I hope Gosden runs Elusive Kate.
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2013 8:48 AM BST
@Rease Heath, you have posed all the right questions with regards to AK, we should find out today what if anything will be the opposition. I am not blind to the possibility of an e/w steal somewhere in the market but I couldn't be confident about finding any certain runners. We may well know more in 2 hours or so.
Report HaylingBilly June 13, 2013 8:06 AM BST
Elusive Kate has the G1 form in the book and looks the pick of the rest after AK. Does anyone know is Gosden plans to run her in this ?
Report BJG June 13, 2013 11:51 AM BST
Animal Kingdom is set to face a formidable challenger in the Queen Anne Stakes after Elusive Kate was confirmed a "very likely runner".
Report sj June 13, 2013 11:59 AM BST
sorry must be going blind in me old age,didn't see this thread and started another,again i apologize
Report paul22 June 13, 2013 12:07 PM BST
Paddy money back if fav wins, guessing ton max
Report sj June 13, 2013 12:12 PM BST
Conditions

   
Max refund: E100/£100 per customer.
Applies to win singles and the win part of each way singles only.
Applies to bets placed from 12pm, on June 12th.
Does not apply to extra racing markets or betting in-running.
Does not apply to Tote bets.

there you are paul
Report paul22 June 13, 2013 1:02 PM BST
Cheers sj, in shops as well? or just online?
Report layingisthewayforward June 13, 2013 6:45 PM BST
Elusive Kate could now be set to swerve Animal Kingdom in Tuesday's Queen Anne Stakes and head for the Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes a day later.

Not seen since finishing third behind Excelebration in last October's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day, John Gosden's filly has the option of tackling her own sex in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes, formerly known as the Windsor Forest.

Patrick Barbe, racing manager for Japanese owner Teruya Yoshida, felt the Queen Anne was the more likely destination when contacted on Thursday morning but, after speaking with Gosden later in the day, is now unsure.

Barbe said: "There might be a change of plan. She could run in the race on Wednesday (Duke of Cambridge), but it is not definite yet.

"It could be a tough ask running against a horse like Animal Kingdom first time out. We will make a final decision on Friday afternoon."

Speaking on Thursday morning, Barbe said he felt Animal Kingdom will be playing a "different game" in Berkshire.

"Animal Kingdom is a very good horse, but this will be a different game for him," said Barbe.

"Dubai is very similar to Churchill Downs (where he won Kentucky Derby) - it is a flat, left-handed track - but at Ascot he will be running over a straight course that is up and down.

"I wish him all the best, but it will be a different game for him."
Report elisjohn June 16, 2013 9:04 PM BST
im shocked so many runners tbh, but ill guarantee well see at least evens in shops on fav if not 6/4 on the day
Report Charlton2005 June 16, 2013 9:53 PM BST
ReaseHeath
10 Jun 13 23:40
Joined:
15 May 04
| Topic/replies: 9,317 | Blogger: ReaseHeath's blog
agree the opposition looks like being weak but he's never won over a mile (OK, only tried twice and second both times), is only 2/4 on turf (yes, Ascot not dissimilar to AWT these days), won't have encountered similar ground before and is racing in an alien environment (yep, been here a while and well traveled).

Question is, what can beat him? I hope Gosden runs Elusive Kate.


actually 1/4 on turf and come home a loser on 4 of his last 6 visits to the track. anything can beat him. I would be looking for a trifecta payout over over 10000/1 in this race.
Report FELTFAIR June 16, 2013 10:21 PM BST
Banker for me.
Report Charlton2005 June 16, 2013 10:36 PM BST
Felt, just studying the form and christ this is an absolutely sh1t group 1, so you may be right. As a layer though, at the price, I have to be against this one. GL to us both!
Report ReaseHeath June 16, 2013 10:49 PM BST
he's ridiculously short in my opinion and I'm not even sure why DoW is second in the market.

I have traded Elusive Kate and am thinking about getting with Trade Storm also.

Will take another look at the race tomorrow.
Report Fallen Angel June 17, 2013 10:00 AM BST
Suppose it depends on whether you think Animal Kingdom will turn his dirt form into turf form. If he does he wins. Personally i feel he will win and win well, but I can see him being taken on tomorrow with the bookies def offering even money. Il be taking some more 6/4 if it becomes available.
Report ClayDavis June 17, 2013 1:08 PM BST
Dirt form to turf? What the feck are you talking about Fallen Angel? He was an unlucky in running 2nd to the brilliant Wise Dan in the Breeders cup Mile and he was 2nd to the very good Point of Entry on turf given an 'iffy' ride. A reproduction of any of those efforts will be more than enough to beat this shower of sh1te.
Report GoldCupWinner June 17, 2013 1:37 PM BST
I was looking at Elusive Kate but it's only that one run which looks genuine group 1 form, the rest has been in fillies races. I'm a bit worried she may have been flattered given how close Caspar finished to her. The rest of her form puts her back with the pack imo.
Report Fallen Angel June 17, 2013 3:56 PM BST
@clay davis. You obviously haven't read the of the thread. As stated already I think the horse will win, I have back it heavily ante-post. However I have to agree that there are some questions to answer which would need a yes before backing at even. I am trying to look at every angle. However as stated numerous times on here, I think the horse will win I have backed it accordingly
Report ClayDavis June 17, 2013 4:06 PM BST
It was the comment about translating his dirt form to turf. His turf form is good enough to win this easily. His run behind Wise Dan is arguable his best ever run
Report Fallen Angel June 17, 2013 5:05 PM BST
yes I noted the run in the breeders cup in the intro. The time in that race is breath taking. It marks him as potentially a real world class animal. I agree this is the huge question about the rest of field in this race as none of them have show that propensity of class.
Report ReaseHeath June 17, 2013 5:09 PM BST
about the price, innit? If I'd backed him at 5/2,11/4 which was around about the price when Farhh was still in the race then I'd be pretty content with life.

Not at odds on though, lengthening now but 8/11,4/5 in places when I made my comments.

He might do the same to this field that Farhh did to a lot of 'em in the Lockinge. But Farhh was 5/1 that day.
Report Fallen Angel June 17, 2013 5:13 PM BST
Yeah that is a fair point. I laid a decent chunk at 1.91 this morning to knock the stake out and a bit on top. I'm normally sitting on some kind of ante-post gamble that gets taken on in the morning and this looked like another one where the bookies were going to go evens in the morning. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some 5/4 about from lads or hills. he might even drift further. Half the time its not about identifying the winner but identifying how the trading of the big firms will impact the price you take.
Report ReaseHeath June 17, 2013 5:20 PM BST
they've just said on ATR that one of those firms will go 5/4 tomorrow morning - Ladbrokes, I think (was only half listening).
Report Fallen Angel June 17, 2013 5:33 PM BST
interesting i just checked Kate millers twitter and they are enhancing four of the big ones at RA, i would imagine AK will be one.
Report Figgis June 17, 2013 10:55 PM BST
The form of the British and Irish runners doesn't look up to scratch this year but I'm not sure Animal Kingdom is that far in front of them. A 2 length win (admittedly comfortable) over an ageing Red Cadeaux isn't brilliant Gp1 form. Wise Dan aside, I'm not convinced the Breeders Cup Mile form is all that, Obviously doesn't look quite top class and, imo, Excelebration was a bit below par. It's still the best form on show and he's a deserved favourite but I don't think he should be so short, he might well prove he's a class above but he's not a betting proposition in my eyes.

I'm having a few quid on Gregorian. He needs to improve on what he's shown but I think he could still be progressing. I thought his latest win was his best effort yet, the bare form is somewhat below what will be required here but I really liked the way he ran his race. They didn't go that quick early and he looked to me like he could've gone a bit faster if needed, there's a possibility that the way the race was run didn't allow him to show his true superiority. In a race where likely improvers look thin on the ground he's a fair price.
Report SallyCinnamon June 17, 2013 11:35 PM BST
Didn't AK have a shocking draw in Dubai as well?
Report harry callaghan June 17, 2013 11:44 PM BST
A tricky race this...have been racking my brains trying to get this horse beat...

having had it off on wise dan in last years breeders and followed him through his career i personally felt he ran below his woodbine form in the mile and still won...i adjusted his rating to 123 that day compared with his supreme woodbine romp 128+ and with that i only had animal kingdom at 120 in which i thought was his best turf run but the race itself was a mess and he shouldn't be upgraded to much...

his run in another weak looking world cup was nothing special and red cadeaux holds the form down as does side glance just an average grade 2 horse over here. it looked like a good grade 2 on paper to me but he himself was the only proven grade 1 horse who turned up

anyway harping on but for me i have animal as a ceiling horse on turf whom will struggle to achieve a much higher rating than 119-120 on turf over a mile...

but the problem still remains who can run to a figure borderline of 120 in order to beat him i was keen on elusive kate but have missed the price and wanted a price to find out if she has trained on

anyway don't like the simcock horse and aljamaheer whom i respect in this just doesn't seem that willing so am going to go against my beliefs and back the o'brien horse who i just cannot have running his race last time and whom i slated pre race in the lockinge...

he is the only horse who i see being able to improve to being able to run to 120 and put it up to animal kingdom...think he may well be ridden differently and will prefer the ground less fast...penitent is worth a small mention in the place market

but for me it will only be small stakes here as feel the horse i have come up with is a risky proposition and respect animal kingdom in what is a weak renewal of the queen anne...whatever happens its great they have turned up for the challenge as the race needs him and he will take some beating as is a top class colt
Report johnnyrant June 18, 2013 12:06 AM BST
Gregorian & Elusive Kate are the 2 for me who could topple Animal Kingdom.
Report Fallen Angel June 18, 2013 8:23 AM BST
@harry callagham interesting that you have wise dan running so below form considering the speed figure on the race
Report harry callaghan June 18, 2013 11:10 AM BST
fallen angel...

yes i did consider the speed figure but for me the track rode like a road as the track record was also broken in the turf sprint the same evening from average horses...the proximity of obviously who ran third that evening who i don't consider in the same league as wise dan said to me it was just workmanlike from wise dan just an opinion you obviously thought it was better as did other speed figure fans, i didn't...
Report ClayDavis June 18, 2013 11:58 AM BST
Harry - they went quite slow in the first quarter in the BC Mile and still broke the track record and still post an excellent speed figure. I like that. The 3rd got the run of the race in front and an easy lead on slow fractions - after the first quarter they just kept quickening and quickening and quickening. Animal Kingdom was still the last horse off the bridle. I like the Breeders Cup Mile form a lot.
Report harry callaghan June 18, 2013 12:35 PM BST
i'm not knocking the form clay just saying i didn't give it the figure that others did because of how the track was riding on the night
Report GoldCupWinner June 18, 2013 12:38 PM BST
If Excelebration was in this race I'd have no qualms about lumping him but for Animal Kingdom it's a different day, different course, different country. Much like the lockinge I don't think there is a genuine group 1 miler in this field bar the favourite. I don't see any form to justify the hype of DOA. Elusive Kate has that one good group one run in france but the rest of her form amounts to group 2/3 level imo. Trade Storm ran well in Dubai but he most likely had "assistance" and I've seen a lot of daubai form not translate over here. Red Cadeaux for instance since you mentioned him.

Gregorian has form in weak group ones and will have to improve and Bick prefers the filly.
Report GoldCupWinner June 18, 2013 12:53 PM BST
I think Trumpet Major may be worth chancing at the prices. I know he has become a little inconsistent but he does have some form which would give him place chances here, if not win if the favourite does under perform.
Report GoldCupWinner June 18, 2013 1:24 PM BST
Is the far side high or low stall numbers?
Report GoldCupWinner June 18, 2013 1:26 PM BST
nm it's high
Report harry callaghan June 18, 2013 1:32 PM BST
the stands rail is high hope this helps
Report GoldCupWinner June 18, 2013 1:51 PM BST
What? Says the opposite on what I found.
Report bazzar June 19, 2013 9:42 AM BST
The far side is now the side of LOW numbers, the BHA changed how the draw is announced and have regulated for ALL courses.
Report EastLower Gooner June 19, 2013 10:37 PM BST
DOW's going to take the world of beating in the Classic imo. fort larned, oxbow, verrazano and orb aint got sh*t on him.
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