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jamesp
28 Jun 12 06:31
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
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The 1000 Guineas used to be a good 'trends race', with most winners of the race having already shown smart form in pattern company as juveniles.  However, in the last four years it's fair to say that only Special Duty followed the long-established trend.  The other three most recent winners of the race were certainly hard to pick on juvenile form: Ghanaati showed considerable promise when winning her maiden easily on her second start but was never asked to compete in pattern company at two; Blue Bunting progressed nicely to win a Listed race over a mile on her third start but was always expected to be a middle distance performer at three; Homecoming Queen failed to win any of her first seven races but broke her duck at the eighth attempt in a nursery off a mark of 72 (the first time she had raced on soft ground) before showing considerable improvement to finish a close second in Group 3 company and then winning a Listed race.  Frustratingly for antepost punters the two most recent winners were stable companions of much more strongly fancied fillies that either missed the race through injury (White Moonstone) or for various reasons failed to make the grade on the day (Maybe).  It is with some trepidation, therefore, that I open a new thread on the 2013 renewal of the 1000 Guineas.

Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 22 June, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):

105 (108p)  Newfangled (J.Gosden)    -11
103 (104)   Ceiling Kitty (T.Dascombe)    -24111
102 (105p)  Sky Lantern (R.Hannon)    -11
100 (103)   True Verdict (D.Wachman)    -22
99  (100p)  Hoyam (M.Bell)    -22
96     Agent Allison (P.Chapple-Hyam)    -12
95     Premier Steps (T.Dascombe)    -713
95     Graphic Guest (M.Channon)    -3110
95     Hairy Rocket (R.Hannon)    -123
94     Upward Spiral (T.Dascombe)    -14
93     Infanta Branca (A.O'Brien)    -213
92     Harasiya (J.Oxx)    -1

These ratings, obviously, are just one person's interpretation of past events, but they're a good starting point.  It's good to see Tom Dascombe with three fillies in the top ten - he's a very talented trainer who deserves to get some better class horses.

We must obviously start by considering the merits of Newfangled, whose impressive win last Friday in the Albany Stakes at Ascot has seen her introduced as the early favourite for next year's Guineas (top price 10/1, though bigger prices up to 16/1 were available to small stakes immediately after Friday's race).  She made a big impression just two weeks earlier when spreadeagling the opposition in a Newmarket maiden, showing a high cruising speed and a smart turn of foot on soft ground to win by 4½ lengths.  She looked a classy filly in the race and it took William Buick a long time to pull her up after passing the winning post.  At Ascot the plan was to drop her in and give her some cover, but she had other ideas - she quickly moved to the front and never looked in danger, sprinting clear of her toiling rivals with well over a furlong to race.  She got a bit tired towards the finish, but that was hardly surprising in the circumstances (she made all on soft ground, into a strong headwind, on a stiff track).  In fact, a number of shrewd and seasoned commentators before the race were stressing how important it would be for the juvenile fillies to get some cover and that it would be folly to try and make all the running into such a strong headwind.  This makes Newfangled's electrifying performance all the more impressive.  It may not have been a great renewal of the Albany in terms of the class of the opposition - a Racing Post Rating of 105 puts Newfangled on a par with previous winners of the race - but, as James Pyman noted in the Racing Post, the style and overall impression of her win screamed quality.

Buick's comments after the race were understandably very positive: "She's a fantastic filly.  You can see the way she moves, she's effortless the way she does everything.  There wasn't anything good enough to give her a lead.  She has a good temperament.  The ways she moves, she doesn't feel like she particularly wants soft ground."  She appears to have most of the attributes you would look for in a potential Guineas filly - class, speed, size, scope, ability to handle any ground (she has a fluent action which suggests that she should be at home on faster ground), good temperament and a sharp turn of foot.  There seems little point in stepping her up in trip this year and she's likely to run just twice more this season in the Gr.2 Lowther and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes.  Her pedigree suggests that she should get a mile without any difficulty, though trainer John Gosden will need to get her to settle a bit better in her races (she reportedly settles fine in her home work): she is by first-season sire sensation New Approach out of winning miler Scarlet Ibis (a daughter of Machiavellian and top-class 8-10f mare Flagbird).

It's interesting to set Newfangled's performance in the context of other recent winners of the Albany Stakes:

2003: Silca's Gift (M.Channon) won by 3 lengths, quite impressively (RPR 103); she was sprint-bred and it turned out to be a weak race.
2004: Jewel In The Sand (R.Hannon) won by 1½ lengths (RPR 101); she went on to win a poorish renewal of the Cherry Hinton before having her limitations exposed in Group 1 company.
2005: La Chunga (J.Noseda) won by 3½ lengths impressively (RPR 108), beating 50/1 shot Vague and subsequent dual Gr.1 winner Rumplestiltskin; she was later a good second in the Lowther; at three she failed to see out the mile in the Guineas and later won a Gr.3 over 6f.
2006: Sander Camillo (J.Noseda) won by 1½ lengths, quite impressively (RPR 104), beating subsequent Lowther winner Silk Blossom and Gr.3 winner Scarlet Runner; went on to win Cherry Hinton impressively by 5 lengths (RPR 116) and leading winter fancy for the Guineas (failed to train on).
2007: Nijoom Dubai (M.Channon) shock 50/1 winner by 1¼ lengths (RPR 103), beating subsequent Cherry Hinton winner You'resothrilling; unplaced in six subsequent starts (failed to train on).
2008: Cuis Ghaire (J.Bolger) won a poorish renewal comfortably by nearly 2 lengths (RPR 101), having achieved a higher rating when successful earlier at Naas; she was later runner-up in the 1000 Guineas (RPR 112) but had problems thereafter.
2009: Habaayib (E.Dunlop) won by 1¼ lengths (RPR 105), beating warm favourite Lillie Langtry (dual Gr.1 winner at three); she later proved disappointing and failed to last a mile in the Guineas.
2010: Memory (R.Hannon) won by a head (RPR 105), coming from a long way back to pip subsequent smart sprinter Margot Did; she was an impressive winner of the Cherry Hinton next time out (RPR 111) but later disappointed in the Moyglare and famously refused to start in three of her four races the following season (including in the Guineas).
2011: Samitar (M.Channon) won by three parts of a length (RPR 105), showing a smart turn of foot to beat mostly poorish (Listed class at best) opposition; she later finished a good second in the Fillies' Mile (RPR 109) and this season won the Irish Guineas.

Sander Camillo was 25/1 (in a place) and 20/1 for the Guineas straight after her Ascot win in June 2006 and could be backed at 10/1 following her demolition job in the Cherry Hinton a few weeks later.  Nijoom Dubai was a 33/1 chance for the Guineas and attracted little if any interest at that price.  Cuis Ghaire was 10/1 (as short as 5/1 in places) for the Guineas after her odds-on victory in the Albany in 2008.  The 2009 winner Habaayib was a 25/1 chance for the Guineas straight after her Ascot win, but there were always doubts about her stamina (she was a daughter of Royal Applause).  Memory was a 20/1 shot for the Guineas after the Albany in 2010 and was cut to 8/1 after her impressive win in the Cherry Hinton next time out.  Last year's winner Samitar was a 33/1 chance for the Guineas after her Albany victory.  In terms of Guineas betting, Newfangled's current price of 10/1 doesn't look terribly attractive (in terms of 'value') at this stage of the season, but it's easy to see why bookmakers don't want to go any bigger.  She's as short as 6/1 with a couple of firms.

Of the other fillies that have already been tested in pattern company, Sky Lantern is certainly one to bear in mind.  She was a comfortable winner of a traditionally strong Listed race at Naas on her second start and trainer Richard Hannon's post-race comments made for interesting reading:

"You'd have to be impressed with the way Sky Lantern won in Ireland, and she could be quite exciting.  She is a lovely scopey Red Clubs filly - much more than just a two-year-old, and we like her a lot.  She looks as if she already wants seven furlongs, but she also has plenty of speed and has a great attitude, as you saw the way she buckled down when the second came at her at the furlong-pole and looked like going past.  Sky Lantern was well bought at 75,000 Euros at Goffs.  She has a good pedigree, and her second dam was Negligent, who was a smart two-year-old and won the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket and then went on to finish third in the 1000 Guineas.  We hope that Sky Lantern might eventually prove a Guineas filly herself, but, more immediately, we will be looking at the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.  We know that she has the speed for six, but we will be looking at races like the Prestige at Goodwood and the Sweet Solera at Newmarket in the second half of the season, and there is plenty to look forward to with her."

Personally, I'm not 100% convinced that Sky Lantern will get a mile.  Her dam Shawanni won over 7f at two but she only ran twice more and did not conclusively prove that she stayed a mile.  Shawanni has produced a number of speedy types such as 5-6f sprinter Arctic (by Shamardal), 5-7f winner Hinton Admiral (by Spectrum), 6f winner Shropshire (by Shamardal), 5f winner Twilight Sonnet (by Exit To Nowhere) and dual 7f winner Sharaby (by Cadeaux Genereux), but she has also produced useful 10-16f winner Shanty Star (by Hector Protector), 7-8f winner Mystic Man (by Cadeaux Genereux) and winning miler Lucky Token (by Key Of Luck).  Sky Lantern is arguably more speedily bred than any of her siblings, being by Red Clubs, and she has shown a lot of speed in both her races to date.  We should learn a lot more when she tackles 7f for the first time.

It's hard to get too excited about any of the other juvenile fillies that have already tackled pattern races this season.  Agent Allison came from a long way back to finish runner-up to Newfangled in the Albany but was completely outclassed by the winner and at this stage it's hard to see her developing into a really top-class performer.  Ceiling Kitty and Hoyam, the first two home in the Queen Mary, are both sprint-bred and very unlikely to get a mile.  Upward Spiral remains of some interest, despite her defeat in the Queen Mary: she is regarded as superior to stablemate Ceiling Kitty by trainer Tom Dascombe and has reasonable prospects of staying a mile later on (she's by Teofilo out of a 7f winner). 

Of the unexposed maiden winners, there was a lot to like about the debut win of John Oxx's filly Harasiya (RPR 92) at Leopardstown, where she was a bit slowly away and showed signs of greenness but ran on strongly in the straight and won quite easily.  She's well regarded and could end up being aimed at the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.  She looks a smart prospect and is sure to get a mile (indeed may need middle distances next year), but doesn't appeal as a Guineas betting proposition at this stage.  Her trainer rarely targets the 1000 Guineas - during the period 1989-2012 inclusive (24 years) he's had just one runner in the Guineas (Arch Swing, who was runner-up to Finsceal Beo in 2007); in the same period he's had 21 runners in the Irish 1000 Guineas.  Even if Harasiya turns out to be a top-notcher, the chances are that she will probably bypass the English Guineas.

Rayaheen (RPR 84) made a striking impression first time at Nottingham in what was probably just an ordinary maiden race (the runner-up has since finished tailed off at Ayr).  She had been working well at home beforehand and showed a good turn of foot to win with the minimum of fuss.  She is bred in the purple (by Nayef out of 1000 Guineas winner Natagora) and is definitely one to keep a close eye on.  Roger Varian's Exceptionelle (RPR 84) showed plenty of pace when winning an all-weather maiden at Kempton with her ears pricked and has earned a step up in grade, but she's by the speed influence Exceed And Excel and sprinting may be her game.  Mick Channon's juveniles have tended to need a run this season so Sandreamer (RPR 80) did very well to win on debut at Newmarket: she was slowly away but made up ground readily and then showed a good turn of foot to win her race, beating a couple of subsequent winners; the winning time was quite slow and the form is nothing special, but she's well regarded and is sure to improve.  Charlie Hills has a nice prospect in the shape of Just The Judge (RPR 85), who made a promising start to her career when winning a 7f maiden at Newbury this week; she had been going nicely at home and holds the Moyglare Stud Stakes entry. 

As mentioned in the separate 'NEWFANGLED' discussion thread I have backed John Gosden's filly at 33/1 for the Guineas (after her maiden win) and backed her again after the Albany at 16/1.  She's the only one I've backed so far.  I'll be keeping an eye on the Prix Yacowlef at Deauville today and the weekend racing at the Curragh, where Aidan O'Brien has a couple of regally-bred unraced fillies entered for the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes on Sunday (both also engaged in the 7f fillies maiden on Friday).  The Empress Stakes (Listed) at Newmarket on Saturday should be an informative race with Rayaheen and Sandreamer both intended runners.

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Replies: 565
By:
roobuck
When: 28 Jun 12 07:42
Absolutely brilliant opening post James - really informative and considered.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Jun 12 09:27
Amazing bound to be the winner mentioned on the thread this time 3rd time lucky.
By:
tinkler
When: 28 Jun 12 10:18
Interesting and informative  post.
Imo Newfangled's Ascot win,in reference to next years 1,000 guineas, was the most taking performance seen by a UK 2 y/o filly since Cape Verdi won
the Lowther in 1997. It looks as though she is going to follow a very similar path to Cape Verdi and there
appear to be plenty of similarites. Both won Newmarket Maidens before going on to Royal Ascot and Newfangled looks like taking in the same races Cape Verdi did after Ascot ,namely the lowther,cheveleyPark
and 1,000 guineas. Cape verdi was beaten over 7f at Ascot at which point she didn't look like any world
beater , trainer Peter Chapple-hyam then gave her plenty of time to mature and grow before running her
in the lowther at York. At york she showed a tremendous combination of speed stamina and courage to become
the only horse to ever beat the very talented Embassy. There was then a re-match in the Cheveley Park
where Emabassy got her revenge winning well, though Cape Verdi looked like she'd gone over the top for the year.  Godophin purchased Cape Verdi and she ran away with the 1,000 guineas and ended up starting
favourite to beat the Colts in the Derby. Unfortunately she injured herself in the race and was never the
same horse after. To me Newfangled showed something similar to what Cape Verdi did back in 1997. On the negative side Newfangled hasn't beaten anything of the quality of Embassy and the time she did was average
at best. Still she looks like a future star to me and the money's gone down at 16/1 and 10/1.
By:
The Big O
When: 29 Jun 12 01:57
Give it a spell Eric.

Great read James, always a thread I look forward to reading.
By:
Punterbaker
When: 29 Jun 12 07:39
Very interesting reading james. I wish you every success for 2013 , just hope the Coolmore fillies don't make a mess of things, they have alot not even tested yet !
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Jun 12 10:20
eric usually doesnt seethe so early in the thread. im worried about him, think he might just crack this year with the forums love for james insightful posts.

hes going down hill i tell ya.

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

fine write up james. gl with your bets
By:
STELLAR MANIPULATOR
When: 02 Jul 12 20:23
Jamesp, excellent write up and I was particurly impressed with your telling stat about John Oxx horses running at Newmarket . Still , he might be tempted to break the habit of a lifetime when Harasiya wins the Moyglare and the Marcel Boussac .....check out her pedigree so far as improvement with age is concerned.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 03 Jul 12 15:13
Be great if we could beat this years record of 23 pages without anyone mentioning the winnerCry
By:
jamesp
When: 10 Jul 12 04:56
tinkler, I hope that Newfangled will prove to be as good as Cape Verdi.  The Lowther should tell us a lot more.
By:
jamesp
When: 10 Jul 12 05:03
A smart performance by Sendmylovetorose at the Curragh (to win the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes) has seen her elevated to second position in the Racing Post & Timeform ratings, just one pound below top-rated filly Newfangled.  She's clearly a talented filly and it might be premature to write her off as just a sharp early two-year-old, but enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that the ground at the Curragh was soft/heavy (winning time was nearly six seconds slower than standard) and by the fact that the placed fillies have yet to win a single race between them.  Furthermore, her pedigree suggests that 7f will be as far as she'll want to go - she's by the sprinter Bahamian Bounty out of a 6/7f winner and she showed bags of pace in her latest race.  She holds an entry in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes on Friday and would certainly be an interesting contender if Andy Oliver decides to run her there, but it remains to be seen whether she's capable of making an impact in a higher grade.

French-trained fillies To My Valentine and Sage Melody ran well to fill the places in what looked a poorish renewal of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois at Chantilly.  Both fillies are starting to look a bit exposed and neither appeals as the type to make an impact at a higher level (or even over a longer trip).  City Image ran out a comfortable winner of the Empress Stakes (Listed) at HQ, beating the highly regarded Channon-trained filly Sandreamer, and deserves a crack at a Group race next time, though she will need to step up on the bare form of this latest success.  It's hard to get a handle on the relative merits of the Hannon-trained fillies at this stage (and I suspect that the Hannon team themselves don't really know), but they clearly have some useful ammunition with which to contest the upcoming Group races (Sky Lantern, City Image, Maureen, Rayaheen, Fleeting Smile).

Here's the current list of top-rated fillies (up to 5 July, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):

105 (108p)  Newfangled (J.Gosden)    -11
104 (107)  Sendmylovetorose (A.Oliver)    -11
103 (104)   Ceiling Kitty (T.Dascombe)    -24111
102 (105p)  Sky Lantern (R.Hannon)    -11
100 (103)   True Verdict (D.Wachman)    -222
100    To My Valentine (F-H.Graffard)    -1232
100    Sage Melody (P.Demercastel)    -223
99  (100p)  Hoyam (M.Bell)    -221
96     Agent Allison (P.Chapple-Hyam)    -12
95     Premier Steps (T.Dascombe)    -713
95     Graphic Guest (M.Channon)    -3110
95     Hairy Rocket (R.Hannon)    -1237
94     Upward Spiral (T.Dascombe)    -14


Incidentally, Premier Steps has been given an official rating of 99 by the BHB handicapper, which suggests that Newfangled already has a provisional rating of about 108-109 (allowing 9-10lbs for the ease of her 2½ length win over Tom Dascombe's filly in the Albany Stakes).

Recent maiden winners to keep a close eye on include Dermot Weld's Moyglare Stud Stakes entry Rawaaq (RPR 92), who was unfancied first time out when beating the colts in a Curragh maiden on testing ground; Charlie Hills' filly Reyaadah (RPR 87), a big scopey type who won a 6f maiden at HQ in the style of a filly that will appreciate a step up to 7f (holds an entry in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes); and John Oxx's Sinaniya (RPR 85), who showed a smart turn of foot to leave her rivals struggling over a furlong from home in a smart-looking Curragh 7f maiden.

The next significant pointer is the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket on Friday, a race which has produced three winners of the 1000 Guineas in the last 20 years.  Previous winners of the race include Kerrera (runner-up in the Guineas in 1989), Chimes Of Freedom (winner of the Coronation Stakes in 1990), Musicale (beaten favourite in the Guineas in 1992), Sayyedati (winner of the Guineas in 1993), Dazzle (third in the Guineas in 1997), Wannabe Grand (runner-up in the Guineas in 1999) and Attraction (winner of the Guineas in 2004); while fillies that were beaten in the Cherry Hinton include Harayir (winner of the Guineas in 1995).  It should give us a chance to evaluate the worth of the Albany Stakes form, with the Ascot runner-up (Agent Allison) and third (Premier Steps) among the entries, and other notable entries include the Grangecon Stud Stakes winner (Sendmylovetorose) and runner-up (True Verdict), the Empress Stakes winner (City Image) and runner-up (Sandreamer), and the once-raced maiden winner Rayaheen.  The last-named, a daughter of Nayef and 1000 Guineas winner Natagora, is the one that interests me most: she showed a good turn of foot to win her maiden at Nottingham and she looks a smart prospect.
By:
jamesp
When: 17 Jul 12 07:03
Soft ground played havoc with running plans at the July Meeting and it's hard to get too excited about the bare form of the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes, which was won by tough Irish filly Sendmylovetorose (RPR 107).  Maureen (RPR 107), who found plenty of trouble in running but flew home, making up several lengths in the final furlong, was the real eye-catcher.  She clocked the fastest closing furlong on the card (13.03s), making up about half a second on Sendmylovetorose in the process, but was still a neck down at the line.  Given the way her race was run, late gains were not especially difficult - it's always easier for a horse to make up ground if its energy has been preserved at an earlier stage of the race - but even so, she showed good acceleration in the rain-softened ground and looks a smart filly.  The form is solid if unspectacular, with Albany Stakes third Premier Steps and Queen Mary Stakes fifth Jadanna finishing close up (in fourth and third respectively).

Sendmylovetorose is clearly a tough and very useful 6f filly who goes well on soft ground, but her breeding suggests that she won't want to go much further than 6f (she's by the sprinter Bahamian Bounty out of a 6/7f winner) so she doesn't appeal at this stage as a likely Guineas filly.  Maureen, on the other hand, was staying on strongly in the Cherry Hinton and her breeding suggests that she should eventually get a mile, as she is by Holy Roman Emperor out of a dam who was placed over 10f (in the French provinces). The dam is a sister to Belle Famille (stayed 12f) and half-sister to winners at 7-8f. The dam has already produced 8-10f winner Glass Mountain (by Verglas) and 7-9½f winner Roedean (by Oratorio).  It is therefore enormously promising that Maureen has shown so much speed and class in her first two races.  Holy Roman Emperor's best three fillies to date (Homecoming Queen, Banimpire and Ishvana) all stay(ed) a mile+, though all three were stoutly bred on the dam's side, and it seems likely that he will produce plenty of milers and middle distance performers in future (his full sister Milanova stayed 10f). 

I was slightly puzzled by Richard Hannon's comment after the filly's Newbury maiden win that Maureen was not terribly big ('not very big' was the comment in the Latest News section of Richard's website, 'she is only small' was the comment on the Racing Post website) - she certainly wasn't the biggest in the Cherry Hinton line-up but she didn't look particularly small either (compared with the Irish filly that beat her or compared with most of the rest of the field), as far as I could tell watching the race on TV.  The Gr.1 Prix Morny is reportedly a possible next target, which indicates how highly she's regarded.  Hannon has had only two fancied runners in the Prix Morny in recent years (Canford Cliffs and Libranno) and if Maureen turns out to be only as good as Libranno (best RPR 115) she could still be close to Guineas class.  Fillies have quite a good record in the Prix Morny: Natagora and Special Duty both finished second in the Morny before going on to win the 1000 Guineas (both also picked up the Cheveley Park Stakes en route) and the following fillies have won the Morny in recent years: Tersa (1988); Coup De Genie (1993) (later finished third in the 1000 Guineas); Hoh Magic (1994) (later finished fourth in the 1000 Guineas); Divine Proportions (2004) (later won four more Group 1 races); Silca's Sister (2005).  Maureen is 20/1 (16/1 in places) for the 1000 Guineas, which is probably about right, given that she was undoubtedly the best filly in the race and was having only her second start after an impressive winning debut at Newbury.  She could well develop into a Group 1 performer later in the season.

Mahmood Al Zarooni's filly Certify (RPR 98, Timeform 103p) was the other filly to impress at the July Meeting when winning the 6f fillies' maiden by 3 lengths.  She had to be ridden along to move into contention just after halfway and was given several smacks of the whip by Mickael Barzalona inside the final two furlongs (never good to see on a two-year-old first time out), but once she got the hang of things she flew up the hill to win quite impressively by 3 lengths.  She has been given an exceptionally high rating for a debutante: it's one of the highest ratings awarded to a maiden winner in recent years.  Personally, I'm not convinced that she deserves such a lofty rating.  Runner-up Pearl Sea had run well previously at Doncaster on her debut (RPR 76) but can we be sure that she improved by nearly a stone to achieve her Newmarket rating (RPR 89) - she led the far side group for the first two furlongs of the race and remained prominent after joining the centre group, it's possible that racing up with the pace on soft ground may have taken its toll in the final furlong.  The fifth Royal Steps had shown plenty of promise on debut nearly three months earlier but had evidently met with some sort of setback to keep her off the track for so long and may well have needed the race.  The seventh Hasanan had run well in a Listed race 12 days earlier on much faster ground, staying on well, but ran no sort of race on this occasion, failing to get home in the conditions.  Whilst I have my doubts about the value of the form, especially considering that Certify reportedly hadn't been showing much at home and had to be ridden quite vigorously (perhaps due to greenness) to win the race, the Godolphin filly is undoubtedly a very nice prospect: she not only ran faster overall than Alhebayeb (winner of the Gr.2 July Stakes earlier on the same card), she did so with a remarkable burst of speed that saw her post an 11.06s penultimate furlong and cover the last two furlongs 0.83s faster than that colt.  The final furlong was run in 12.45s, the fastest on the card and significantly quicker than the 13.03s clocked by Maureen the following day (when ground conditions were slower).  The dam won seven times at around 6½-8½f in the US (up to Grade 3 level).  Certify is half-sister to smart US juvenile Cry And Catch Me (by Street Cry), a speedy filly who won over 5½f before stepping up in trip to land the Gr.1 Oak Leaf Stakes over 8½f (where she just held on to win after racing prominently throughout); at age 3-4 she raced over 6-7f.  Certify (by Elusive Quality) is therefore quite speedily bred and may prove best at distances short of a mile, though Timeform reckon she "will be suited by 7f+".  Her odds for the 1000 Guineas (25/1 widely available) don't make huge appeal at this stage, given the stamina doubts, but she is certainly one to keep a close eye on next time out.

Latest list of top-rated fillies (up to 13 July, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):

107 (107)  Sendmylovetorose (A.Oliver)    -111
107 (106p)  Maureen (R.Hannon)    -12
105 (108p)  Newfangled (J.Gosden)    -11
103 (104)   Ceiling Kitty (T.Dascombe)    -24111
102 (105p)  Sky Lantern (R.Hannon)    -11
102    Jadanna (J.Given)    -1153
100 (103)   True Verdict (D.Wachman)    -222
100    To My Valentine (F-H.Graffard)    -1232
100    Sage Melody (P.Demercastel)    -223
99  (100p)  Hoyam (M.Bell)    -221
98  (103p)  Certify (M.Al Zarooni)    -1
98     Premier Steps (T.Dascombe)    -7134
96     Agent Allison (P.Chapple-Hyam)    -12
By:
harry callaghan
When: 18 Jul 12 18:21
I know this will become the newfangled 1000 guineas thread....as it was the maybe one last year

but did she really achieve much at ascot apart from beating drains and showing herself a top class mud loving early juvenile??

6-1 in places defies belief at this time of year for the 1000...lets just see how she gets on on better ground against some decent fillies who like better ground and then if she wins by 4 lengths again then 6-1 might look an ok price...but i doubt she will as looks a filly who likes the cut...

I remember backing six perfections for the guineas at 7's after the boussac and people want to back this early type at the same price after winning a soft ground grade 2 against weak opposition...although the ridden for a place agent allison may have a future back on better ground...

good luck with bets as always and nice write up about newfangled
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 19 Jul 12 18:19
Harasiya pretty impressive tonight. Debutante followed by Moyglare would be the obvious route from here. Whether she'll turn up at Newmarket in May is another matter of course.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Jul 12 18:55
You'd have to be impressed by that performance from Harasiya, even allowing for the fact that the filly with established Group race form (True Verdict) raced too keenly and didn't get the trip tonight.  If I thought she would be aimed at the Guineas I'd certainly be interested in backing her, but the stats suggest that she's very unlikely to turn up at Newmarket.  In any case, she could turn out to be a middle distance filly for next year rather than a miler - her dam Hazariya (a half-sister to Irish Oaks third Hazarista) won at up to 9½f and ran in the Irish Oaks, while Harasiya's half-sisters Haziyna (by Halling) and Hazarafa (by Daylami) were both 10-12f fillies.  Korals go just 14/1 for the Guineas, a price which is very easy to resist.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 19 Jul 12 19:46
Hi James; we've had this discussion before (on another thread) and I agree there's considerable doubt that she'll turn up at HQ, although she's undoubtedly good enough imo. She might stay further, but a mile should be fine as a 3yo.

Apologies in advance for the after-timing. I backed her today @ 2/1 (couldn't get last night's bigger prices) and a while ago @ 33/1 for the Guineas (to small money). She probably won't go there, but it will be interesting to watch her develop. She could be a female Azamour (who DID go to HQ).
By:
DoesntMatter
When: 26 Jul 12 05:53
RAYAHEEN is an interesting potential candidate (& my initial Guineas fancy): runs today in the Star Stakes @ Sandown.

One could scarcely imagine a filly better or more appropriately bred to be a Guineas horse than she: by Nayef out of Natagora.

Equally, the impressive 6f maiden win > 7f listed race seems to me to be an ideal early pathway to Newmarket 2013
By:
jamesp
When: 26 Jul 12 08:50
RAYAHEEN is certainly one to watch today.  Richard Hannon doesn't have a great record in the Star Stakes (13 runners in the last 10 years, no winners) and I get the feeling that she's not quite at the very top of the pecking order among the Hannon-trained juvenile fillies, though that could all change.  She's certainly bred for the job and an impressive win today would doubtless see her being quoted for the Guineas.  However, the Star Stakes is not normally a race to get too excited about as far as the Guineas is concerned.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Jul 12 09:03
^ I've had an eachway bet on Amazonas in that race. I think the ground was against her last time out,being by Cape Cross, when 4th to Newfangled. The trainer jockey combo also had the runner-up Arsaadi last year. 5/1 seems fair though there are plenty of winners in the race.
By:
Adelaide
When: 26 Jul 12 09:03
107 (107)  Sendmylovetorose (A.Oliver)    -111
107 (106p)  Maureen (R.Hannon)    -12
105 (108p)  Newfangled (J.Gosden)    -11


I think I would put the maiden Strictly Silca above all of those, but for the 1000G I am waiting to see the reappearance of Gosden's 'Chat', a filly who won her maiden easily at Haydock and has the Fillies Mile entry, whereas Newfangled goes for the Lowther/Cheveley Park.   I heard Chat beat Newfangled in a gallop before she ran, and being by Dynaformer out of a Kingmambo mare, I quite like the breeding too.
By:
roobuck
When: 26 Jul 12 10:59
Whilst I couldn't agree with your assessment of Strictly Silca over the current top rated fillies, an interesting observation with regards Chat. Hannon's very well touted Toronado beat SS a similar distance on his most recent run so she could turn out to be very decent.

May well be proved wrong, but not sure if Gosden has sent any of his 'best' 2yos there for their debut
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Jul 12 11:01
I'd be amazed if he has another one better than Newfangled.
By:
BJG
When: 26 Jul 12 14:11
Hmmm, a race to write off there i reckon
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Jul 12 07:34
I reckon the Star Stakes form is quite useful, with the first four home all unexposed beforehand and pulling well clear of the disappointing Amazonas, but I'll be surprised if there were any stars on show.  The winner has been given a preliminary Racing Post Rating of 97.  The favourite Rayaheen finished lame, which doesn't bode well for her immediate prospects (it's rare for a juvenile to bounce back quickly after a setback like that).

Strictly Silca ran well last time at Ascot behind a highly regarded Hannon-trained colt but is still a maiden after three starts and has an official rating of just 88.  All three of the races she has contested so far have been quite slowly-run affairs, so it's hard to get too excited about the form.  On breeding she's unlikely to get a mile, but she's been given an entry in the Fillies' Mile, so who knows.  She is qualified for nurseries now.

John Gosden's Chat, who beat Strictly Silca first time out at Haydock, did well to win over 6f as she's bred to be much better over at least a mile.  From what we've seen so far she's not in the same league as her stablemate Newfangled, but she's been given the Fillies' Mile entry and it will be interesting to see whether her trainer decides to pitch her into Group 3 company next time (in either the Sweet Solera Stakes or Prestige Stakes).  I wouldn't pay too much attention to home gallops reports.
By:
roobuck
When: 27 Jul 12 08:43
It would be nice to see some of Newfangled's form being franked, nothing out of her two races has yet to win as far as I can see. Maybe the Albany  wasn't as good as it first seemed
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Jul 12 10:06
I agree that the Albany Stakes form doesn't look anything special, though it's not all that bad either: Premier Steps ran well in the Cherry Hinton; Amazonas was clearly nowhere near her Albany form yesterday (up in trip on much faster ground, though she should have been able to handle it); Equitania (beaten 15 lengths in the Albany) recently won a nursery off 71 (now rated 83); All On Red (beaten 17 lengths in the Albany) ran well in the Rose Bowl on similar ground (beaten a couple of lengths).  Apart from the winner there were eight other winners in the Albany field, including last-time-out winners in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  It will be interesting to see how Fleeting Smile (runner-up to Newfangled on debut) goes today at Ascot.  I still think that Newfangled is probably a very smart filly.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 28 Jul 12 00:01
Newfangled won like a decent animal, but on my clock the time was ordinary (said so at the time). By contrast the Queen Mary was run at a good pace and I've backed runner-up Hoyam to over-turn the odds-on Maureen in the Princess Margaret; at over 3/1 she seems generously priced.
By:
cruise d
When: 06 Aug 12 23:04
Here is the winner......

Orpha
By:
metro john
When: 07 Aug 12 11:53
Garah was a very speedy high class sprinter who dissapointed on soft ground over 6f(will it stay?)
By:
cruise d
When: 07 Aug 12 20:09
You would hope she'd get a mile. Garah's offspring haven't exactly been great to say the least but but depending on the sire they have stayed further than a mile wlthin the confines of their ability.

She looks brilliant on Channon's website against his decent 2yos. Entered a week today in a maiden and we will know a bit more after that. She has been running well for a while at West Isley and yet they are waiting.  I really think they think a lot of her.

That said I've come on here the last two years championing some Channon runner or other to no avail (Music Show was very unlucky though).
By:
jamesp
When: 09 Aug 12 08:12
Good luck with Orpha.  She looks a nice prospect on the gallops, but I'll wait to see how she runs on debut before forming any initial impressions.  Her latest gallop over 7f on Tuesday was nice, but she was accompanied by the moderate three-year-old hack sprinter Selinda and the two-year-old Jillnextdoor, who is still a maiden (albeit a useful one) after three starts.  She had galloped well a week earlier over 6f in company with Cruck Realta (needs a longer trip) and the nursery-class Effie B.  As a New Approach half-sister to the very useful 8-10f performer Olden Times, Orpha should get a mile OK (she holds an entry in the Fillies' Mile).  At this stage, Sandreamer and Ollie Olga look to be the best of the Channon-trained juvenile fillies we've seen so far this season.  Ollie Olga worked nicely this week with useful three-year-olds Lady Gorgeous (OR 98) and Fillionaire (OR 85) in preparation for Saturday's Sweet Solera Stakes.
By:
jamesp
When: 09 Aug 12 08:37
It is interesting to note that both Newfangled and Maureen have recently been entered for the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville on 19 August.  My guess is that John Gosden and Richard Hannon will try to keep these two smart fillies apart, so it's quite possible that one will run in the Morny and the other in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes on 23 August.  But if they take each other on, so be it.

More immediately we have the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday and the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday.  John Oxx holds a strong hand in the Debutante with the highly promising pair Harasiya and Sinaniya, but Aidan O'Brien's Galileo filly Magical Dream looked good last time and has scope for significant improvement on faster ground, and Mark Johnston's Discernable showed a decent level of form last time to win a Listed race at Deauville.  Final decs for the Sweet Solera are due later this morning: if Certify, Discernable, Ollie Olga, Reyaadah and Sky Lantern all hold their ground it will be a good renewal.  Certify is likely to start favourite to maintain Godolphin's recent stranglehold on this race, and the longer trip and faster ground could bring about significant improvement, but this represents a big step up from her maiden win.  Saturday's race will tell us whether or not she's a potential Guineas filly.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 12 Aug 12 09:52
Hopefully Harasiya can continue her progression with a win in today's Debutante Stakes. This will be the quickest ground she's encountered so far, which to some may be a concern (as she's by Pivotal), but I'm pretty confident she'll be OK on it as she seems to have a pretty nice action.

I've topped-up at 16/1 recently for the Guineas; not just in anticipation of victory today but also because Oxx has given her an entry in the Fillies' Mile over the Guineas C&D. In light of previous conversations about coming across the Irish Sea, that looks significant to me, especially as she's the only filly he's entered for it.

We'll know more this evening.
By:
jamesp
When: 12 Aug 12 11:59
Whatever happens today I doubt if I'll back Harasiya for the Guineas unless it is specifically mentioned as a likely target.  The last time Oxx and the Aga Khan had a two-year-old filly as good as Harasiya was in 1998 when Edabiya won the Debutante Stakes on her debut, then followed up with a fluent victory in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, before losing out by a neck and a short head in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot.  Despite Edabiya showing plenty of speed in her races at two, Oxx ruled out the Guineas straight after the Fillies' Mile, saying that she would be trained for the English or Irish Oaks.  In fact she made her three-year-old debut in the Irish Guineas and didn't race again until the Prix Vermeille in the autumn.  It's interesting but not terribly surprising that Harasiya has been given the Fillies' Mile entry: I expect that she will also be given an entry for the Prix Marcel Boussac.  She has loads of stamina in her pedigree and it's possible that she won't even be trained with a Guineas campaign in mind.  Harasiya is odds-on and should win today, but it wouldn't surprise me if the O'Brien filly Magical Dream showed considerable improvement from her maiden win, so the result is not a foregone conclusion.
By:
jamesp
When: 12 Aug 12 14:31
I didn't like Harasiya's head carriage today.  There was presumably something amiss.
By:
BJG
When: 23 Aug 12 13:36
SadNewfangled
By:
roobuck
When: 23 Aug 12 14:14
Cracked pelvis apparently, not impossible to come back from and hopefully she'll recover OK

If she turns up on 1000 Guineas day for her next run may be a decent price
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Aug 12 20:06
Hope she'll be OK. She had Guineas class stamped all over her imo. Before the race Gosden was saying how much she had grown since Ascot. When he saddled The Fugue later on he had a real glum look on his face, understandably. Sad
By:
harry callaghan
When: 23 Aug 12 20:19
was hitting the ground very hard the filly...lets hope she can come back...

had shown a lot of potential with ease in the ground...but not the end of the world and she will return i would of thought but where is anyone's guess...

has thrown the market wide open...
By:
bosra shame
When: 24 Aug 12 19:54
I wouldn,t back Newfangled with counterfeit. In my experience, once horses have injuries,particularly fillies,  they never truly recover and are predisposed to further problems and niggles in their training regime.
Especially a pelvis injury, which potentially poses problems for the spine.
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