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elisjohn
09 May 12 13:26
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 16,181 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
after the guineas and pretty polly, dont see maybe as an oaks filly, and wading friendless, kisses could well be coolmore top horse for this.dont see nothing from cheshire oaks even running, so as things stand though has to be supp and with godawful but i really like kalianni, bred for the trip , mighty impressive in p polly and at around 12/1 on here has to be the bet .the fugue if ok after the 1000 could well run into a place .

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Replies: 118
By:
hippie
When: 09 May 12 15:46
Whatever went wrong with Wading happened on 23rd or 24th April (as shown by the betting at oddschecker). She either makes her seasonable debut in the Oaks or (more likely) she's a non-runner. An update from the stable would have been nice (Confused).

Kissed is so closely related to Gagnoa she was probably earmarked for the Saint-Alary & Prix de Diane until the issue with Wading. If she appears in the Blue Wind Stakes (16 May) she's following the same path as Adored to the Oaks (another Galileo out of a Darshaan mare and debuted in same Navan maiden 4 years earlier). On breeding and performance (albeit a slow time) she looks the one to beat at the moment.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59241/another-galileo-filly-shines-at-tattersalls
By:
lobster luck
When: 09 May 12 15:53
Certainly a muddle at the moment.  Kissed really needs to step up in grade to back up that visually impressive effort.  Vow could be a sleeper; heads to York I believe.  Maybe has stamina issues for me.  The godawful filly will need it soft if she takes after mum (Kazzia), it was as soft as Epsom gets that day.  The Fugue should come forward from her 2nd ever run and will improve for the trip.  I backed Wading last year, which is down the pan already judging from the vibes.
By:
hippie
When: 09 May 12 15:56
btw, the GalileoAlluring Park filly in that article that sold for 1.2 million guineas is Was. She's also likely to appear in the Blue Wind Stakes and shows how strong a hand Coolmore have.
By:
sewter lives again
When: 09 May 12 16:23
I am waiting on another gaileo filly called UP, she is entered at the 5 day stage for the French guineas this weekend, and was only a running on length behind Homecoming Queen last time over 7f, seeing that she was running on over a mile in the BC last year she remains of interest to me.
By:
elisjohn
When: 09 May 12 16:26
makes me wonder why kalianni wasnt going for 1,000, her mum won it, and the ground, ok in hindsight but im sure shed have been placed
By:
baNjackst
When: 09 May 12 21:15
Was in Navan when kissed won, she looked the real deal and showed amazing balance and natural speed. Joseph spoked about her been a live oaks filly being a three parts sister of pour moi and that she prefer better ground than was in Navan. Very exciting prospect, but having backed her immediately after her race for oaks I'm a bit frightened about today's money for Maybe.
By:
elisjohn
When: 10 May 12 06:26
personally i wouldnt be too worried about the markets for coolmore horses, camelot drifted to a high of around 6 for 2000, yet there really wasnt a doubt he was heading to newmarket, maybe backed ridiciously low for 1000, so was wading for both classics, dont think anyone really knows with this stable.
By:
elisjohn
When: 12 May 12 13:59
big chance vow , if steering ok
By:
trev w
When: 12 May 12 14:14
yeah..impressed with that despite the hanging....need to watch again...but think jonny did'nt draw his whip....saving it for epsomWink to keep her st then maybeConfused
By:
Masterminded
When: 12 May 12 16:20
Really like her but wouldn't be too sure about her at Epsom. She can't run around like that there so hoping it's down to greenness. Was is interesting and I was very impressed with Kissed. Firdaws could also run very well imo.
By:
Ramruma
When: 12 May 12 16:53
Vow looks a live contender but it is a shame the Lingfield Oaks Trial was switched to the all-weather. The time was slow, though.
By:
elisjohn
When: 12 May 12 17:39
muisidora on wednesday , just looked it up now , a obrien has never won this race.
By:
hippie
When: 14 May 12 18:51

O'Brien could have three representatives in the Investec Oaks and added: "Maybe and Kissed will go straight for Epsom and we could look at the race for Was, who we might run at Naas on Thursday, as well. Wading didn't come right in the spring and I don't want to force her so I'd be surprised if she makes Epsom."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=166152


By:
jair1970
When: 14 May 12 19:55
Scratch beneath the surface elisjohn and you'll see he ran Moonstone and Alexandrova in it... plus a couple that didn't do anything; Cabaret, Amazing Beauty
By:
bbsband
When: 14 May 12 21:17
I wonder would O'Briens UP get the trip?
Looks like she wants a trip anyway.
I see she's entered bit only time will tell I guess...
By:
turnip turns
When: 14 May 12 21:24
Reply  Retweet  Favorite
4m Mark ‏ @TeeteeMr
@BillEsdaile Hi Bill,any word on where he's going with Up next ?


Bill Esdaile ‏ @BillEsdaile
@TeeteeMr wanted to see how she came out of the trip to France before any decisions made

would be very interesting if she did turn up for this imoCool
By:
Ramruma
When: 14 May 12 22:22
^ No Oaks for Up, according to the Racing Post:

O'Brien could have three representatives in the Investec Oaks and added: "Maybe and Kissed will go straight for Epsom and we could look at the race for Was, who we might run at Naas on Thursday, as well. Wading didn't come right in the spring and I don't want to force her so I'd be surprised if she makes Epsom."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=166152
By:
sintonian
When: 15 May 12 08:39
Pirce wize tipped Vow & Kailani but the looks of things on Oddschecker.

Interesting Kissed goe straight there.
By:
sewter lives again
When: 15 May 12 08:45
I am not sure what to make of Up and Im not sure that AOB's team does either

She has been running on the a/w, good and soft ground-and over various distances. In all her races she seems to be finishing well and these have been mostly group or decent races.

She is by Galileo out of a Spectrum mare so there are definitely grounds for thinking 12 furlongs would be within her compass.
After her run in the BC last year you might have expected her to step up in trip but she was actually dropped back in trip to 7f behind Homecoming Queen-look at the video she is plum last turning in and actually makes up around 7 lengths on HCQ in the last 2 furlongs.

So she has speed over 7f and a mile, form at group 1 level behind 2 guineas winners, has been running on in her races, goes on most ground and is bred to stay.

Why wouldnt you run her in the Oaks, or at least a trial? Unless of course you thought that youve got at least 2 better than her at home!!
And that is probably the real reason, who knows where she will run next.
By:
Ramruma
When: 15 May 12 10:09
@sewter lives again -- maybe the French Oaks over 10 furlongs?

http://www.prix-de-diane.com/prixDeDianeUK.html

or in French:
http://www.prix-de-diane.com/
By:
Tascro
When: 15 May 12 11:58
anyone with an opinion on was? was very impressed with this very expensive filly first time up. if she does tomorrow win tomorrow 20s could look very big
By:
Ramruma
When: 15 May 12 12:39
@Tascro -- Was is currently forecast 2/1 for the Group 3 Blue Wind at Naas tomorrow.

So if that is accurate, she'd need to be put in quite short for the Oaks for the current 20/1 to look compelling.

Given Ballydoyle already has the two 3/1-ish 7/2 joint favourites, is that likely? Surely if she is that good, she'd be odds-on at Naas? (Of course, maybe she will be!)

Was's only previous run was last August. If she is unsound, I'd not want to back her ante-post.

Also, she has a bloody stupid name.
By:
roobuck
When: 15 May 12 12:45
Also, she has a bloody stupid name.

LaughLaugh Absolutely. If going to be a Classic winner they'd surely have named her IS
By:
Tascro
When: 15 May 12 13:05
"She's good. She was very well and we had her very forward and, would you believe, one day, the horse that was making the running for her, the shoe came off and cut her over the knee. That's what delayed her, she had to get four or five stitches over her knee. But she's back perfect again."

a good enough reason not to be out early i think
By:
roobuck
When: 15 May 12 13:35
She was very well and we had her very forward

Who's WE Tascro?
By:
Ramruma
When: 15 May 12 14:23
@Tascro -- is that what stopped her running after August last season or before now this season?

And whichever it is, what explains the other?
By:
sintonian
When: 15 May 12 14:34
Aidan O'Brien's Twirl, like so many from the Ballydoyle Stable, is regally bred being a full sister to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Misty For Me.

Twirl finished second in the Park Express Stakes on her first start this season and is one of a powerful army of fillies O'Brien has in the Classic division this season.

Others include 1000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen, Oaks favourite Maybe, Kissed and Wading.

Speaking at a Ballydoyle press day on Monday, O'Brien said: "Twirl in the Musidora Stakes, and if she came through the trial she could join Maybe and Kissed in the Investec Oaks.

"Kissed is a good filly but still a little inexperienced. She worked well on the grass this morning, as did Maybe, who is by Galileo so should stay the longer distance at Epsom.

"Maybe needed her race in the Guineas and she should be sharper for it. She was staying on at the end of the mile, so I would be optimistic that she would get the trip, and she is one who is not short of experience."



Clearly, Maybe has been trained for the Oaks, not the Guineas.

Seething. Angry
By:
bbsband
When: 16 May 12 13:03
Totally agree Sewter,
Does O'Brien know what to make of UP ?

He says:
"Kissed is a good filly but still a little inexperienced. She worked well on the grass this morning, as did Maybe, who is by Galileo so should stay the longer distance at Epsom.''

UP has the same sire Galileo as Maybe and from my eye UP
needs a trip.Unless he just knows Maybe is a better horse.
Something tells me not though...
By:
sintonian
When: 16 May 12 14:19
The Fugue is going to be very hard to keep out of the frame imo.

I cant have AOB's pair tbh. Kissed looks real classy but it is debatable what she has beaten and I would like to have seen her race again given she won back in April. Maybe possibly has stamina doubts and it is quite possible Gosdens horse will improve past her from the Guineas due to the extra distance.

Vow & Colima have big chances as does Kalaini IF supplemented.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 16 May 12 14:32
It won't stop The Fugue running well in, or winning, an Oaks, but that Musidora didn't look to be worth tuppence to me.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 May 12 14:36
You are probably right HM. Some people have suggested as much already.

But at least she finished 4th in a Guineas aswell.

Do you think the Lingfield form is the strongest?
By:
Steamship
When: 16 May 12 14:45
I'm quite confident that we have seen the Oaks winner today, 4th inn a classic won a major trial, trainer does not overface his horses, will be suited by further. W
By:
elisjohn
When: 16 May 12 14:47
the form of the muisidora mightnt be strong, but what about kissed, kalianni, vow, probably even worse tbh , but she did beat the chester oaks winner easily
By:
The Headmaster
When: 16 May 12 14:56
I'm rather hoping we might see the Oaks winner today, sint - but not at York. Newbury may well throw something up too.  Can't have the Chester race (elis?!?).  The Fugue's effort today may have one or two looking at their Guineas fillies again.  Bolger? Channon? (and, yes, I do think Vow holds strong claims too).

Race is wide open, no?
By:
sintonian
When: 16 May 12 14:59
Certainly is. 4/1 the field at the moment.
By:
roobuck
When: 16 May 12 15:00
Come on elis, the Cheshire Oaks was only a week ago, ran on desperate ground. Can use thatas a form yardstick.

I think it was a good performance by The Fugue and she will go close in the Oaks. However it is sometimes easy to get carried away by the visual impression and it is important to remember that Twirl wasn't one of his three that AOB mentioned for the race.
By:
elisjohn
When: 16 May 12 15:17
no of course i dont take the chester race seriously as form guide, but looking forward to the naas race tonight.
By:
RockMonkey
When: 16 May 12 16:15
On Kissed & Was at big prices but would rather be on The Fugue-very impressive.
By:
baNjackst
When: 16 May 12 16:24
On Kissed myself BIG TIME, and really hope she is special because like previous poster I was very impressed with The Fugue.
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