Betfair Bowl Aintree

I'd expect Riverside to win myself. Course should suit better than Cheltenham did and will put more distance between himself and Medermit. I believe the GC was the poorest for a while and can see the placed horses from that race being over bet.

have to agree that Riverside is the most likely winner and will probably be favourite I imagine. The only thing with Medermit is that he will be stepping up to 3 miles for the first time which might bring some improvement.

IIRC, this is a Grade 2 race right? Does that mean RT will have a Grade 1 penalty and will have to give a bit of weight?

Riverside will prob go to Punchestown, hendo said today he's undecided.

I'd be backing Hunt Ball if riverside doesnt run

Nah it's a grade 1 race. Expecting Riverside to be favourite too. Medermit has never really looked like catching Riverside in both defeats to him. I backed him in the Ryanair and he seemed to flatten out to me.

Be interesting to see hiw they price Giant Bolster and Time for Rupert up.

Race is a Grade 1 now, has been for 2 years.

thanks fellas, I was doubtful what with Kauto running in it

so at level weights Riverside should be clear favourite and Hendo says he runs

Hendo doesn't say he runs. I just told you that.

This is from the man today.

"It's not quite firmed up if Riverside Theatre goes to Aintree or Punchestown and Master Of the Hall is in the Bowl as well."

And I told you he is quoted as saying he does so STFU cant

""We’ve decided not to run Long Run and he will now go on holiday. However, Riverside Theatre is a likely runner in the Bowl and he will be joined by Master Of The Hall."

it's not certain but is more than likely, I can read as well you know

RT had a bloody hard race at Cheltenham as did a few of the others.As always its tricky after their races they were trained for,and whether they are now over the top.
Good luck if you are playing,and if i do,Hunt Ball may interest me as well,dont think he had such a hard race as most of these,possible that may be the difference.
Whatever i do i wont be parting with much!!

Both quotes we posted are from today but from different sites. Wonder why he said 2 different things.

Anyway from my point of view it's not certain he liked going left handed. May be a better idea going for Punchestown.

Sure we'll see, he has 2 in the bowl and I'd say it's not certain riverside Runs at Aintree. Especially given nicky has said he isn't a confirmed runner yet.

Dont think he enjoyed himself full stop,so great credit to the horse that he won the race,but no way would i be backing him after that.
In fact if i owned him i would insist he dont run at Cheltenham again,but then i am a big softie when it comes to horses.

Only 2nd run of the season bud, he won't have had as hard a race as he would have had he run 2 times more this season. I'd prefer him back right handed at Punchestown as he did rump right at chelts.

Love the horse, he alone made my festival.

True,hes lightly raced this season,but i personally feel like you hes better the other way,and that coupled with the race he had at Chelt is enough to stop me backing him.

Did he jump right or did Captain Chris force him right?  Geraghty couldn't have found a worse position if he tried.

I think having race so much right handed it was him who was jumping right, he jumped straighter as the race went on. Some stamina to win given how how he jumped and travelled. Will prob be fav at Aintree if lining up

This is always a trappy race imo.

What A Friend is a previous winner and on his 4th in last years Gold Cup has a chance. His early exit this time around could be a blessing in disguise but he is not a horse to trust so it depends what price he is.

I echo the thoughts re Riverside. He'll be happier back at Aintree but 3 Grade 1 chases in the space of 3 weeks ?? Not for me personally especially given he is likely to be favourite.

The Giant Bolster is not running either. Trainer said yesterday he will be saved for next year.

Time For Rupert travelled like the wrath of god in the GC. Looked like the extended 3 miles stretched him there. He has won at Aintree before also.

MOTH likes small field and flat tracks and could spring a surprise but shouldn't really be good enough.

* 7 weeks, not 3 weeks, re Riverside.

IF, and it is unlikey, the going is Soft/Heavy then MOTH would be a lively chance.

What about Nacarat / Weird Al etc ?

Nacarat last years winner weren't he ?

Nacarat won RP Chase too this year. But might be a bit old, won a rubbish race last year.

You forgot Hunt Ball sint

Yeah I did I was just thinking of other horses that hadn't been mentioned yet on the thread. Hunt Ball just keeps defying the handicapper and looked a tool last time out.

Not the easiest race to price up imo.

Weird Al broke blood vessel in Gold Cup so doubt he'll be running.

I was on Hunt Ball LTO and thought no way I was winning with the way he was jumping but he proved me wrong and then some. Must have some engine on him.

Poquelin is going to Aintree I think but not sure if for the Melling or this ? His run last time out conceding stones to The Giant Bolster looks good but question marks over the trip of 3 miles.

Albertas run,if running, and Riverside Theatre have to be favourites for sure. I'd expect Riverside to be sub 2/1.

Hunt Ball is at least on target and if he keeps rolling will lay down a strong challenge, unbelievably, it seems.

Expect to see Carruthers, Weird Al, Diamond Harry et al in the entries.

Is Riverside hardy enough to take this after two tough races?? Not many miles on the clock there but this is the third back after a break

I agree Zil. He IS the class horse in the race, but 3 grade 1 chases in the space of 7 weeks has to be a worry imo. Likely favourite so if he wins it wont break your heart you did not back him.

IIRC Gold Cup placed horses have a dreadful record in this. Albertas will presumably go for the Melling. I'd like Riverside Theatre as well - his Ryanair win has persuaded me he is exceptionally classy having won with so much against him. I can't have Hunt Ball - if he wins, he wins, but I'll be shocked. Captain Chris would be interesting if he runs but I think he might go to Punchestown. It's very tough at this stage, the race can cut up badly.

Captain Chris defo goes to Punchy.

No horse who has been placed in a Gold Cup has won this since Exotic Dancer in 07.

Last Ryanair winner to win was Our Vic in 2008

My point about the Gold Cup (though I didn't say so clearly) is that those who had a tough race have done badly in this even when favoured - Demnman and Imperial Commander have run stinkers for example in the last couple of years. Horses who finished down the field in the GC have quite a good record in the Bowl.

Thanks for the info on Capt C - seems sensible to go right handed when they can.

Burton Port won over c&d as a novice and may not have had a hard race in Gold Cup. Dunno about him would depend on price. Not interested in any other GC runner, but he's highest placed finisher who'll run anyway

CV I thought you didn't like handicap form for grade 1s?

Hunt Ball

at the festival

When Burton Port, regardless of class of race, has faced a stiff finish he has not won - although he has run well at Chelts, dont think it's his track, and flat tracks suit this well. A fresher horse than most - and it wouldnt surprise if this was the real target all season. Riverside is a horse who can appear to get a little outpaced at times and that wont suit at this track especially if Nacarat runs in this one. He could just get caught on the backfoot. Think there will be a few surprise entries for this race.

What about What A Friend?
Not a horse I particularly like and have never backed before but didn't he win this race 2 yrs ago. Is the only horse coming from the gold cup not to have had a hard race so will be fresher than most (providing no after effects from his fall).
I love Riverside Theatre but imo had a really hard race at chelt and would readily oppose this year at Aintree.

Riverside Theatre or Hunt Ball would be my early pics

What am I missing with Hunt Ball? He's won a Listed limited handicap off a mark of 142 over 2 1/2 m. Why do people think he's going to be up to winning a 3 mile Grade 1 against proven Grade 1 stayers?

because the horse is thriving on racing and fast improving ,its finished in hcps imo and why not let it have its chance ,won like a fresh horse at chelt .

It will probably be priced up shorter than it should be on all the publicity its had though

this race traditionaly cuts up and often one of the short priced runners runs a shocker ,so does not take that much winning .
also the ground determins if a chelt runner takes it chance .
proceed with caution .

Denman and Imperial Commander were never suited by the course anyway. I don't think that will be the case for Riverside. I think he won despite the course at Cheltenham whilst the other two loved Cheltenham. We don't know for sure how Riverside takes his racing. He didn't lose form over hurdles in 09 over a trip shorter than his best but has been a bit more injury prone since then.

I'd be worried Aintree is still left handed. I'd prefer Riverside to go to Punchestown. Also had a tough race too, but all depends on price.

I'd probably be most interested in backing What a Friend for this given his early exit at Cheltenham, he's probably fresh and we know he likes the track.

Burton port and Riverside had 2 runs in quick succession and that might have taken the edge off.

Nacarat won a useless race last year.

Master of the Hall prob isn't good enough and would like it a bit softer than this.

Hunt Ball totally unexposed and improving, all depends on price with him.

Time for Rupert ran well in the Gold Cup, but the horse loves Cheltenham and he only ran to form really in the race.

Prices will decide everything, but you'd prob want What a Friend and maybe Huntball depending on price.

I know Hunt Ball is improving rapidly and I agree it deserves a chance at this level. But people aren't saying that - they are saying they fancy it to win which is a whole different matter.

Well no reason he can't win, he's improved so much this season, no idea where it'll stop. It all depends on price with him.

That's true of course, but I'd be looking for a big price which I doubt I will get given the hype. His current price for the 2013 Gold Cup is lunacy. I know the ratings are supposed to be a linear scale, but in reality it's a big, big jump from being a 150 horse to being a 170+ horse which is what should be required here. We quite often see a horse put up a Grade 1/2 type rating in a handicap then get stuffed in actual G1 races. The Grade 1 horses do everything that bit better, jumping, travelling, quickening. I find it hard to believe a horse that was rated 70-odd quire recently has the inate class to keep company with established Grade 1 horses. One caveat is we don't know what's going to turn up in opposition.

This Aintree Bowl is a fake grade 1 though. You can win this every year without putting anything near a 170. So Huntball could go out and post a low 160s or something and go home with the win.

That's what I meant by my last line really. The likes of Caroles Legacy spring to mind last year. Hopefully some of the horses we're talking about (Riverside, What a Friend, Burton Por, Weird Al) will show up and it's a decent race.

It looks to be a good, competetive race if half of them turn up - maybe worthy of a Grade 1 this year CVB. I'd still like Riverside, though the vibe at Hendo's yard today was he's not a certain runner. Otherwise, What a Friend catches the eye. Poquelin is an interesting entry - thought he'd be saved for the Silver Trophy next week.

Looks quite an open renewal and will wait for final decs. Would love to see Hunt ball win it purely to keep the fairytale firmly
on the road to next years Gold Cup. The owner reputedly won half a million at Cheltenham and I would suggest he will be lumping
on again. Good luck to Anthony Knott and connections.

Riverside will surely go for the 2 1/2 mile race and Burton Port go for this?

Makes perfect sense to split them if you have two horses with great chances, espcially with the Trainers Championship at stake.

Yeah but that would really pi55 me off if I was the owner - the horses should go for the race best suited to it

Henderson has Finians Rainbow for the 2 and a half mile race.

Medermit going for the Melling.

Weird Al going for the National.

Betting is out btw,

7/2 RT

The plan is to step both FR and RT up in trip now.

sorry I said Medermit was going for the Melling but he has entries in both so could run here.

At first perusal of the odds Time For Rupert looks OK at 14/1, only 1/5 odds for a place. He is a definate runner here. Have not bet though.

Have decided to have a bet on WAF. I know he is a rogue but he is fresher than most of these and might have more left at the finish.

You can make cases for several of these for one reason or another.

Surely Time For Rupert will turn up here and on his last outing over a flat left handed track he easily beat The Giant Bolster at Newbury.

He also won a handicap hurdle here over 3 miles although off a relatively low mark and demonstrated that he could hold his form into the spring (his previous run was in The EF Final and prior to that won The Sidney Banks) so has as good a chance as any of showing his form here.

Burton Port, less than half his price, only collared him halfway up the run in at Cheltenham so is no good thing  to reverse the form here and his Aintree victory 2 years ago has taken plenty of knocks.

This field could easily cut  up to 6 or 7 runners and in that instance Time For Rupert could get a fairly comfortable time in the lead and outrun his price.

Totally with you sint, WAF price too big. Riverside could yet skip and go for Punchestown and then price crash on most. Albertas will go for Melling.

Going is now Soft so whoever wins will need to be a stayer to boot.

Have added a saver on MOTH just incase it cups up, he'll like conditions if it does. 16/1.

yeah moth will like it soft. but what a friend ran in national last year, horse has plenty of stamina and has won a lexus which is prob the kind of soft it'll be on thursday this year.

Waffer all the way now backed him ew 14/1

Riverside Theatre - festival form looks very strong .Didn't appear that tired after the race. Strong contender if they line up.
Burton Port - Appears to love flat RH tracks ,which he'll get here. Heard nothing as to whether they intend to run
Medermit - don't see him staying if theres signifiant cut. May well run in the Melling chase.
Hunt Ball - difficult to see him overcome a class and distance rise.
Albertas Run - Very gutsy horse. May well run in the melling chase.
What a friend - Heavy looking fall at Cheltenham will do well to have fully recovered from it.
Time for rupert - Has a breathing problem.
Nacarat - likes flat tracks ,could go well.
Master of the Hall- A real character, has ability ,could run well if race cuts up and he's in the mood.
  Not keen on opposing Riverside Theatre and Burton Point if they line up, unsure what their true prices
should be having to factor in what condition they will turn up in and will probably pass the race.

On Jockey bookings looks like both BP and RT run, with McCoy on BP. Interesting.

Albertas on route to Melling.

Burton Port is the bet in this for me. Fresh Horse, stays, goes well on Flat tracks and more importantly will love the ground. Not had softer ground for a while.

Diamond Harry   -never been a backer of this one, but at the prices, back on Softer ground and flat track will run well imo.

This race is quite often a graveyard for fancied horses.

Therefore given the likely soft ground - have backed WAF on here at 16 and Carruthers with Sid James at 40/1.

These two fought out the finish a couple of years ago.

11 decs. Notable absentee - Time for Rupert. Interesting Webber comments about CHelt horses at Fairyhouse.
Tinkler on Master of the Hall - Ruby on WAF. Be the first time he has ridden him in a chase since he last won and guess what race that was!

Still fancy BP to outstay them on the likely tacky ground. 

Sun is out in patches and wind picking up - it will dry out a bit me thinks if stays like this.

yes but a few mm of rain here or there will keep it soft.

Paul Webber said TFR was a definate runner last week tut tut

GMOOH ran at Chelts and won at Fairyhouse fwiw but it's a valid point as we know.

Can't see why Burton Port would outstay What a Friend tbh. Latter has finished like a train in super fast run Gold Cup and has run in a National, also comes here fresher than most. Very happy with 14s ew.

You've got a decent bet there CVB, but WAF is such a dodgepot you'll have your buttocks clenched if he jumps the last upsides Burton Port or Riverside Theatre.

sint - i have been caught out before at this course when there has been heavy rain about. The course does dry really fast and as it is so exposed the wind really attacks it. The local forecast has just been on and it is localised showers over next few days. Aintree may well miss those.
Looking at the course layout from Turftrax (Mildmay) this morning, there was more good to soft areas than soft, yet they calling it soft.  I can see a change to Good to Soft tomorrow, with Softer patches on the National course. TBH I am more interested in the midlmay conditions for my course punting on Thurs/Fri!
The worst will be tacky ground, which becomes a lotto.

Disappointed not to see Poquelin in there - good luck with Medermit, judo.

PFN thinks WAF has a massive chance according to his BF Video blog. Hope he's right.

I think he has a massive chance last 2 winners skipped chelts, while Madison DB had an easier Gold Cup as was eased home when well beaten.

WAF fell at the 2nd, has to be super fresh. Will prob be in same form as he was going to be for Gold Cup, while hard cheltenham races may take their toll. You only ever find out after the race though

Agree with most, thinking this is a very tricky race.

Nacarat and Carruthers will make sure that they don't hang around, so will need one that stays the trip fully.

Based on that, I can't back Medermit or Hunt Ball because they are unproven at the trip, so to try it for the first time in a decent Grade 1, all at sub 6/1 is not for me.  Riverside has ran in the King George, but agree with most that I'm not sure if he would have been better suited to Punchy.

The two Irish ones at the bottom look a little short of quality, although I do think Roberto Goldback does have the ability to run a huge race, but quite inconsistent these days.  I see Diamond Harry and Carruthers as solid handicappers and don't think they're up to this level.

That basically leaves me with Burton Port, Nacarat, What a Friend and Master of the Hall; and of those I like a fresh Nacarat with conditions in his favour and Burton Port who is a garaunteed stayer.

I initially was sceptial about Burton Port because he would have run a lot in a short space of time.  However, looking at his novice chases:

8th Feb: 1st
20th Feb: 1st
17th Feb (RSA): 2nd
9th Apr: 1st

That's a lot of racing in a short space of time.  I know he will have had a hard race in the Gold Cup but the RSA can be a horse breaker, so he would have had a hard race in that but then held his form at Aintree.

Won't be a big bet for me.  A couple of quid on Burton Port win, and a couple on Nacarat ew.

Good luck all - lets all enjoy it because before we know it, it will be 23 runner handicaps at Thirsk soon!

Come on then, who backed What a Friend at 1.18 on here?

8th Feb: 1st
20th Feb: 1st
17th Mar (RSA): 2nd
9th Apr: 1st

.....but you all knew that

not me stront

Only a couple of quid lined up to back Hunt Ball then........

there's thousands lined up to back

Layed Hunt Ball a place at 2.4. He hit a few in his win at Cheltenham I dont think he will get away with that at this level

he was yoking CV

Backing Caruthers win and place. Nice to see the confidence behind WAF on here as theres very little between the 2 Just hope is fully recovered from his injury as he definitely needed the Gold Cup run

Burton Port for me. I like Hunt Ball but I think he's due a break, never mind a Grade 1 Festival race in which he needs to find another stone. I hope they're not going to the well once too often.

View of what happened
Follow the plan - probably won by de-fault but he he won well and has to be given some credit.
Burton port - didn't jump well enough
Hunt Ball - If it was 2 1/2m he might have won. Non-stayer
medermit - has become a tripless placer/follower
Nacarat - gutsy effort probably not as good as he was.
Riverside Theatre - Used a classic 1,2 avoidance tactic to avoid having to race. Semi bolted going to post then stubbornly refused to do much when they set off. Possibly a very clever horse.

Anyone have a view on what ratings the winner/placed horses ran to? I'm finding it very difficult!

Very difficult I dont think a great deal of the field ran to their best