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29 Dec 11
23:12
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
The gold cup looks set up for Long Run come march though of course it would be something else to see Kauto Star win it again, I for one dont think that he will e able to fend off the younger horse come festival time, with this in mind it appears that David Pipe is now considering letting Grands Cru take its chance, well i guess why not, he jumps so well, has a fine cruising speed and stamina from his hurdle days should ensure he can get home up the hill, however at the time of writing he is now 8-1 for the gold cup so whilst its a thin looking race has he got any fencing form to put him at 8-1, well theres nothing at present to suggest that.
Currently rated aroud 160 he would have to improve a tonne over fences to give Long Run something to think about in fact its got to be a 20lb improvement in two races, namely his prep run and then the gold cup, perhaps they may try the cotswold chase with him in January? surely this horse should be more like 16-1 for the gold cup even allowing for its poor depth of course if he could go and win the cotswold from a decent horse then we can look to drag that price in, the bookies have just got him far to short.
Nothing emphasises this than the current price of around 14-1 for Syncronised even after he carries out a demolition job on the lexus field the other day, that form has been crabbed by many and its questionable how good the Irish chasers are but lets not forget that the horse who finished second and third that day had ratings of 166 and 169 and Synchronised murdered them, for me after that run he has to be put on somewhere around 175 it could even be a couple of pounds either way.
Its been said in the past that this horse has to have heavy ground and yet it was good to soft at best at the Irish track so ground may not be the issue it once was, this form also seems to good to be a flash in the pan as does the style of the victory.
Lets not forget also that in his first run of the season in a hurdle at Haydock Synchronised ran a stormer trying to give weight to a certainty in Dynaste, even the runner up and fourth have gone onto run well next time out let laone dynaste second to big bucks.
So why is Synchronised 14-1 and Grands Cru 8-1, surely on all known form it would havve to be the other way around, Synchronised on that form is at present the only one that could go up against the top two in the market and whatsmore he is seemingly improving, has to be great value.
Currently rated aroud 160 he would have to improve a tonne over fences to give Long Run something to think about in fact its got to be a 20lb improvement in two races, namely his prep run and then the gold cup, perhaps they may try the cotswold chase with him in January? surely this horse should be more like 16-1 for the gold cup even allowing for its poor depth of course if he could go and win the cotswold from a decent horse then we can look to drag that price in, the bookies have just got him far to short.
Nothing emphasises this than the current price of around 14-1 for Syncronised even after he carries out a demolition job on the lexus field the other day, that form has been crabbed by many and its questionable how good the Irish chasers are but lets not forget that the horse who finished second and third that day had ratings of 166 and 169 and Synchronised murdered them, for me after that run he has to be put on somewhere around 175 it could even be a couple of pounds either way.
Its been said in the past that this horse has to have heavy ground and yet it was good to soft at best at the Irish track so ground may not be the issue it once was, this form also seems to good to be a flash in the pan as does the style of the victory.
Lets not forget also that in his first run of the season in a hurdle at Haydock Synchronised ran a stormer trying to give weight to a certainty in Dynaste, even the runner up and fourth have gone onto run well next time out let laone dynaste second to big bucks.
So why is Synchronised 14-1 and Grands Cru 8-1, surely on all known form it would havve to be the other way around, Synchronised on that form is at present the only one that could go up against the top two in the market and whatsmore he is seemingly improving, has to be great value.
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If it's proper soft ground then Synchronized could easily figure (similar type to Master Oats, Cool Ground, Sir Rembrant etc) - on normal goodish ground I can't have him at all.
if its really soft/heavy ground for the gc then that would also suit grands crus who would have too much toe for synch. Bostons Angel and Quito de la roque would also be suited by serious give in the ground. Saying that it very rarely rides too soft in gc nowadays so the top 2 in market prob right ones
nope,but all it has to do is p!ss down before the Friday,and/or on the day itself.
This is england!!
This is england!!
Soft ground would also seem to really suit Long run looking at his form in France.
topweight
30 Dec 11 09:54 Joined: 26 Jun 09 | Topic/replies: 468 | Blogger: topweight's blog
if its really soft/heavy ground for the gc then that would also suit grands crus who would have too much toe for synch.
I can't have Grands Crus staying 3m2.5f around Cheltenham on soft ground at all. The reason I wouldn't run him in the Gold Cup is that I just don't think he'll stay well enough to trouble the principals. If he needs a quick pace to jump well, then just run him in the Arkle where a quick pace is guaranteed, and which often goes to a horse which stays further.
30 Dec 11 09:54 Joined: 26 Jun 09 | Topic/replies: 468 | Blogger: topweight's blog
if its really soft/heavy ground for the gc then that would also suit grands crus who would have too much toe for synch.
I can't have Grands Crus staying 3m2.5f around Cheltenham on soft ground at all. The reason I wouldn't run him in the Gold Cup is that I just don't think he'll stay well enough to trouble the principals. If he needs a quick pace to jump well, then just run him in the Arkle where a quick pace is guaranteed, and which often goes to a horse which stays further.
Not sure the lexus form is much good and everything fell perfect for him. GC on good or G/s ground with KS
setting a decent pace would probably expose his dodgy jumping technique. If they potter round like they did in
the lexus then his turn of foot would give him a chance ,but whats the chance of that in the GC.
Grand Cru is an excellent jumper but to me could have stamina problems.
setting a decent pace would probably expose his dodgy jumping technique. If they potter round like they did in
the lexus then his turn of foot would give him a chance ,but whats the chance of that in the GC.
Grand Cru is an excellent jumper but to me could have stamina problems.
I am a massive Grands Crus fan but totally accept the stamina query is a major ponderable.
That said, if Synchronised beat him in any race and under any conditions (barring an absolute slog in glue) I would be bitterly disappointed. Think the Lexus looked one of the weakest Grade One three milers I have seen in a long, long time.
That said, if Synchronised beat him in any race and under any conditions (barring an absolute slog in glue) I would be bitterly disappointed. Think the Lexus looked one of the weakest Grade One three milers I have seen in a long, long time.
every year there is a push for the top novice to go for the gold cup - but on nearly every occassion they let the novice run against its fellow novices - who was the last novice to run/win the gold cup?
leave the gold cup to the big boys
leave the gold cup to the big boys
Captain Christy was the last novice to win the Gold Cup
not sure who the last novice to run in it was? maybe Beef Or Salmon?
not sure who the last novice to run in it was? maybe Beef Or Salmon?
Tomdean, people were not saying that before the race. Only when Sync won did people start saying how shoite it was.
Synchronised is on of my favourite horses. When he won the Welsh National he turned my fortunes around.
However, if he wins the Gold Cup I'll have to seriously consider giving up gambling.
However, if he wins the Gold Cup I'll have to seriously consider giving up gambling.
sintonian - Maybe other people weren't saying so before the race but I certainly was.
Quito De La Roque has his fans but I'm not one of them - beat a legless Sizing Europe on his reappearance and just outdid Sarando as a novice. That is the measure of him in my opinion.
Rubi Light is a nice horse but not sure he stayed and he has yet to convince he is Grade 1 standard, whereas the likes of Joncol have had their chances at a lower level time and time again.
I totally stand by my comments and agree with flyingbolt. If Synchronised won the Gold Cup it would be one of the biggest shocks of my punting life.
Quito De La Roque has his fans but I'm not one of them - beat a legless Sizing Europe on his reappearance and just outdid Sarando as a novice. That is the measure of him in my opinion.
Rubi Light is a nice horse but not sure he stayed and he has yet to convince he is Grade 1 standard, whereas the likes of Joncol have had their chances at a lower level time and time again.
I totally stand by my comments and agree with flyingbolt. If Synchronised won the Gold Cup it would be one of the biggest shocks of my punting life.
Surely the Pipe's wont run Grand Crus after what happened to Gloria Victus.
Mightymoyes it has been heavy a few times for the GOLD CUP, many times it has been soft, a stupid question really.
Gloria Victus could have happened in the RSA!!
It jumped right at virtually every fence, would have been suited by softer and was still in there when falling two out
It jumped right at virtually every fence, would have been suited by softer and was still in there when falling two out
My humble opinion is that Synchronised beat NOTHING in the Lexus - indeed I think Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross would have given him a harder time had he pitched up at Chepstow and if either LBB or GC pitched up in the Gold Cup they would be 250/1 at least....
Grand Crus is still a novice - lets be honest....
The Gold Cup has ended many careers before they have begun in terms of what it can take out of a horse....and if GC were to go down the GC route so early in his Chasing career there is no doubt it might leave a negative indelible mark later on....
If I were Pipe I would look at the BIGGER picture......Long Run isn't improving and in 2013 the Gold Cup could be a far more realistic target for a better more experienced and improved Grand Crus.....there are better easier races at Cheltenham in 2012 for him....
Grand Crus is still a novice - lets be honest....
The Gold Cup has ended many careers before they have begun in terms of what it can take out of a horse....and if GC were to go down the GC route so early in his Chasing career there is no doubt it might leave a negative indelible mark later on....
If I were Pipe I would look at the BIGGER picture......Long Run isn't improving and in 2013 the Gold Cup could be a far more realistic target for a better more experienced and improved Grand Crus.....there are better easier races at Cheltenham in 2012 for him....
I agree with your humble opinion,and pretty much echo all that you say there mr willy!!
Not many realistic contenders as far as I see. I can't have synchronised in the race but Grand Crus would probably have a good chance - I would be tempted if I owned the horse but would probably side with the RSA
bazzar 01 Jan 12 01:45
Mightymoyes it has been heavy a few times for the GOLD CUP, many times it has been soft, a stupid question really.
----------------
when was the last time then? hasnt been soft once in the last 10 years.
Mightymoyes it has been heavy a few times for the GOLD CUP, many times it has been soft, a stupid question really.
----------------
when was the last time then? hasnt been soft once in the last 10 years.
Just out of interest everyone, it appears that the form of the lexus xhase is being discounted, it maybe right or wrong to do so, however in winning the race what rating would you all put synhcronised on, because as i mentioned in my original post the horse he thrashed had ratings of 166 and 169, one was seemingly improving and the other had only been beaten once over chases and had won two grade ones on the run at aintree and in ireland, are you all saying they did not run to form as the finishing distances between them may not suggest that and even if they ran 5LB below there previous level then the winner still has to be in the early to mid 170,s, BUT IF THEY DID RUN TO FORM THEN HE IS MID 170S PLUS. People have also said about his ground requirements but then it was barely good to soft in ireland for the lexus, its surely possible that the horse is reaching a new level.
If we are to discount this horse from the gold cup it seems it is because of the ground requirements he had in the past and also the form of the lexus, but it may be dangerous to dismiss this horse in a poor poor year especially when the only excuse for his victory in the lexus is that the opposition where poor, well then thats to be seen but outside of the top two in the betting for the gold cup who would have a rating right now as high as him
If we are to discount this horse from the gold cup it seems it is because of the ground requirements he had in the past and also the form of the lexus, but it may be dangerous to dismiss this horse in a poor poor year especially when the only excuse for his victory in the lexus is that the opposition where poor, well then thats to be seen but outside of the top two in the betting for the gold cup who would have a rating right now as high as him
I'd rate him around 169 through noland and roberto goldback.
Extra distance in GC could also see an improvement given he has won a national. I think it'll finish;
Long Run
Synchronised
Kauto
I haven't always been convinced about Kauto over the extra distance in the Gold Cup even though he has won two of them.
Long Run
Synchronised
Kauto
I haven't always been convinced about Kauto over the extra distance in the Gold Cup even though he has won two of them.
strontium can i ask you why you rate him only through the horses who finished fourth and fifth and not the horses who where second and third, even allowing for that you seem to be rating him literally pound for pound which would not take into account the ease with which he won, however more interesting would be why you choose to totally discount the horses in second and third, just out of interest and in no way trying to be funny
strontium can i ask you why you rate him only through the horses who finished fourth and fifth and not the horses who where second and third, even allowing for that you seem to be rating him literally pound for pound which would not take into account the ease with which he won, however more interesting would be why you choose to totally discount the horses in second and third, just out of interest and in no way trying to be funny
by the way if i am rating the winner on that race alone, well he went into it at 155 as i say he beat 166 and 169 rated horses and i if handicapping would put him on 174
The ratings angle is one I tend to steer clear of because more often than not I find it to be unhelpful and misrepresentative.
For what it's worth, I think the race was simply a bad one, and I wouldn't be comfortable putting any kind of figure on it. If pushed, I'd have Synchronised on something like 165. As I said initially, I am far from convinced Rubi Light really stayed, which is why I couldn't use him, and if Quito De La Roque is worth 169 I will be totally shocked. His Aintree form in beating Sarando, Golan Way and Wayward Prince would suggest he was no better than 156-159, and there has been no reliable evidence to suggest he has improved much, if at all since last season.
Gut feeling is simply that the Lexus was a bad race and I would be surprised if anything comes out of it to give even the slightest bother to Kauto Star, Long Run or Grands Crus. Also think the likes of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry would be a lot classier than Synchronised, and suspect it would need huge improvement and very deep ground for him to be involved in the Gold Cup.
For what it's worth, I think the race was simply a bad one, and I wouldn't be comfortable putting any kind of figure on it. If pushed, I'd have Synchronised on something like 165. As I said initially, I am far from convinced Rubi Light really stayed, which is why I couldn't use him, and if Quito De La Roque is worth 169 I will be totally shocked. His Aintree form in beating Sarando, Golan Way and Wayward Prince would suggest he was no better than 156-159, and there has been no reliable evidence to suggest he has improved much, if at all since last season.
Gut feeling is simply that the Lexus was a bad race and I would be surprised if anything comes out of it to give even the slightest bother to Kauto Star, Long Run or Grands Crus. Also think the likes of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry would be a lot classier than Synchronised, and suspect it would need huge improvement and very deep ground for him to be involved in the Gold Cup.
Noland and RG both appeared to give their running and had no excuses and both are good yardsticks with solid form against good Grade 1 or 2 horses in 2011.
I didn't give Synchronised any bonus as he appeared to be ridden out to the line, he won clearly and well, but not "easily" (say in the way Oscar Whisky beat Pounghach yesterday by 2 l but hard on the steel).
I don't think Rubi Light stayed so can't rate the race through him.
I thought QDLR was offically overrated before the race - and I'm certain he didn't run to 169. If he did, Synchronised ran to 180+! Who knows what the ratings of last years novices are actually but many of the ORs are too high.
So you get Synchronised on around 167-9.
I didn't give Synchronised any bonus as he appeared to be ridden out to the line, he won clearly and well, but not "easily" (say in the way Oscar Whisky beat Pounghach yesterday by 2 l but hard on the steel).
I don't think Rubi Light stayed so can't rate the race through him.
I thought QDLR was offically overrated before the race - and I'm certain he didn't run to 169. If he did, Synchronised ran to 180+! Who knows what the ratings of last years novices are actually but many of the ORs are too high.
So you get Synchronised on around 167-9.
well each to their own i guess and views are what makes the world go round, however ratings are the cornerstone of horseracing as its the indication of form which is what we have to use to base our views on, otherwise it becomes a bit like pie in the sky, they are of course only used as a guide when studying form for future races and we all take our views on races and adjust accordingly, lets not forget though these are official handicappers who do it for a living and whilst we may agree or disagree they have to be respected surely.
It will be interesting to see what the official handicapper does with Synch, Long Run, Kauto and Grands Crus when they revise this week.
it will be as it may not be easy to rate them on the last races
Love all this Synchronised is one pace mudlark business....keep it up.
Really cannot see Synch keeping up with Long Run and Kauto on anything like decent ground.May stay on for a place,but he will be too far away to trouble the front 2 imo.
The Lexus to my eyes was pretty poor really if you are talking in Gold Cup terms,and i will be major surprised should that race have much to do with the Gold Cup as regards formlines,aside from a running on placer maybe,like Quito or Synch.
The Lexus to my eyes was pretty poor really if you are talking in Gold Cup terms,and i will be major surprised should that race have much to do with the Gold Cup as regards formlines,aside from a running on placer maybe,like Quito or Synch.
Budd - The Lexus was not great form no doubt but to put it in perspective for Synch to do what he did was next to impossible. Consensus beforehand and probably still now for some is Synch optimum trip is 3.5miles in knee deep sh1te. Basically the race had no pace so in effect turned into a 1.5 mile race and Synch beat Rubi Light 8 lengths in a 1.5 mile race on good ground giving him a few lengths start. Now given Rubi's optimum trip is 2.5 mile i think most will agree I'd think that performance is kind of amazing.
Anyway people read races different ways but I think people gonna have to wake up and realise that Synch is a lot more than a mudlard stayer and he's run well on good ground on many occasions now. Can't have him out of the frame in the GC and if he's within 5 lengths come the last not sure what can stop him. To me he should be 2nd fav behind Long Run and come the day even with the Kauto sentimentalists out there he won't be far short of 2nd fav.
Anyway people read races different ways but I think people gonna have to wake up and realise that Synch is a lot more than a mudlard stayer and he's run well on good ground on many occasions now. Can't have him out of the frame in the GC and if he's within 5 lengths come the last not sure what can stop him. To me he should be 2nd fav behind Long Run and come the day even with the Kauto sentimentalists out there he won't be far short of 2nd fav.
Agree with your race analysis Guru , as you say an amazing performance . Plus he was outjumped by QDR at most fences . We tend to regard him as a knocked about plodder , but he has only had 8 chases which is a very light campaign for a 9-y-o .
Whilst not really being a fan of Synchronised (his sloppy jumping & connections being the main reasons) he's undoubtedly in with a shout of the frame at least.
A career best was posted on ground perceived to be too fast for him, as well as his raw ability being in question - he most certainly surprised me.
He looks at least as good right now as many Gold Cup WINNERS of the past (Cool Ground, Norton's Coin, Cool Dawn, The Thinker & Charter Party to name a handful) so it's not so foolish to put him on the premises, Long Run aside.
I tend to agree with Strontium & Tom Deane's reservations of the rating on the Lexus, in erring on the side of caution - I'm getting a bit sick of some of the collateral marks given in haste, especially over the last few years.
At the risk of much derision, I too have always harboured slight concerns about Kauto Star's stamina despite winning two Gold Cups, as GCW suggests, as he beat a very similar sort in Exotic Dancer who could never really get home, and a 90% (at best) Denman on the other occasion.
Sometimes big races are won by 'default' and perish the thought the real Long Run fails to show, then I can see ANYTHING winning a sub-standard race.
I have huge reservations about the Lexus form, and bigger ones about the entire field, apart from Long Run and for that reason, I couldn't totally discount Synchronised as some of you have.
I do think that Long Run will absolutely hose up in this, even allowing for a few sloppy errors, as long as they don't stop his momentum too much.
The one thing I'd be quietly confident about is that a bum rated two stone inferior (or more) to Long Run will surprise, by being suited to a strong gallop that'll catch out the perceived superior horses, and could well plod on for the frame.
The question is...which one?
The ones I'd be interested in are Chicago Grey, Wayward Prince & possibly China Rock too at HUGH-MONGOUS odds - there are some alternative markets nearer the race, like betting W/O Long Run or for the first five.
I'm sure some of you will be in bulk at those suggestions, and I hope you're around come Cheltenham
A career best was posted on ground perceived to be too fast for him, as well as his raw ability being in question - he most certainly surprised me.
He looks at least as good right now as many Gold Cup WINNERS of the past (Cool Ground, Norton's Coin, Cool Dawn, The Thinker & Charter Party to name a handful) so it's not so foolish to put him on the premises, Long Run aside.
I tend to agree with Strontium & Tom Deane's reservations of the rating on the Lexus, in erring on the side of caution - I'm getting a bit sick of some of the collateral marks given in haste, especially over the last few years.
At the risk of much derision, I too have always harboured slight concerns about Kauto Star's stamina despite winning two Gold Cups, as GCW suggests, as he beat a very similar sort in Exotic Dancer who could never really get home, and a 90% (at best) Denman on the other occasion.
Sometimes big races are won by 'default' and perish the thought the real Long Run fails to show, then I can see ANYTHING winning a sub-standard race.
I have huge reservations about the Lexus form, and bigger ones about the entire field, apart from Long Run and for that reason, I couldn't totally discount Synchronised as some of you have.
I do think that Long Run will absolutely hose up in this, even allowing for a few sloppy errors, as long as they don't stop his momentum too much.
The one thing I'd be quietly confident about is that a bum rated two stone inferior (or more) to Long Run will surprise, by being suited to a strong gallop that'll catch out the perceived superior horses, and could well plod on for the frame.
The question is...which one?
The ones I'd be interested in are Chicago Grey, Wayward Prince & possibly China Rock too at HUGH-MONGOUS odds - there are some alternative markets nearer the race, like betting W/O Long Run or for the first five.
I'm sure some of you will be in bulk at those suggestions, and I hope you're around come Cheltenham
Anything is possible, but Long Run's form last year has been in my view devalued.
He has now won 2 top races, in the first he beat Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, by no means an outstanding effort, and in the second time he beat a well past it Denman by 7 lengths; both times Kauto Star was not at his best.
This season Long Run has been thrashed once by a nearly 12 year old Kauto Star with Weird Al only 2 lengths away 3rd. Next he got beaten again and fair and square too, by a horse within 6 days of his 12th Birthday in a race miles slower than the one won by a novice having only his third chase ever.
Long Run, in spite of the continued efforts of Yogi Breisner, continues to give the impression of being a clumsy brute, lacking real jumping talent. In the King George he looked quite slow too, as if the Eider Chase or Grand National would be more his cup of tea. He looks shocking value, and is at current odds a place lay as he would have every chance of unseating his undoubtedly enthusiastic if limited rider.
He has now won 2 top races, in the first he beat Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, by no means an outstanding effort, and in the second time he beat a well past it Denman by 7 lengths; both times Kauto Star was not at his best.
This season Long Run has been thrashed once by a nearly 12 year old Kauto Star with Weird Al only 2 lengths away 3rd. Next he got beaten again and fair and square too, by a horse within 6 days of his 12th Birthday in a race miles slower than the one won by a novice having only his third chase ever.
Long Run, in spite of the continued efforts of Yogi Breisner, continues to give the impression of being a clumsy brute, lacking real jumping talent. In the King George he looked quite slow too, as if the Eider Chase or Grand National would be more his cup of tea. He looks shocking value, and is at current odds a place lay as he would have every chance of unseating his undoubtedly enthusiastic if limited rider.
CoT - although I was roaring on Kauto Star, and I was chuffed to see him prevail, I got the distinct impression that the fences really did get in Long Run's way (as at Haydock too) and there was a lot of gas left in his tank.
Conversely, if there was one more fence and LR could have jumped it clean, I believe he'd have picked up KS with relative ease, as he looked tired - thoroughly understandable for an OAP.
PS - I can't believe I've got away with the ridicule (so far) for those outsiders I've suggested
Conversely, if there was one more fence and LR could have jumped it clean, I believe he'd have picked up KS with relative ease, as he looked tired - thoroughly understandable for an OAP.
PS - I can't believe I've got away with the ridicule (so far) for those outsiders I've suggested
I don't mind China Rock at all, he travelled sweetly for much of the race before apparently picking up an injury, and his form before that was also good whenever he got decent ground. I might have a speculative punt and then top up if he makes a semi-successful return
Cheltenham has (a) more space between fences (b) a longer run in than Kempton and (c) a hil at the end, all of whcih will suit Long Run. I agree with almost everything you say, but the horse has a big engine and as long as his jumping isn't terrible his ability on the flat seems to keep him in touch.
Can you guys remember some of the horses that've been relatively close up and made the frame in the Gold Cup over the
last decade or so?
Chasers with little or even no apparent chance of being on the premises, and as I mentioned earlier, some not-so
stellar chasers have even WON it!
Royal Athlete
Go Ballistic
Strong Promise
Commanche Court
Truckers Tavern
Harbour Pilot
Sir Rembrandt
Take The Stand
Turpin Green
Most of those listed were exposed beforehand (and subsequently) as having limited ability (on ratings) but that didn't
prevent them from running their career best performances over a gruelling C&D, as their main asset was bottomless
stamina - the main pre-requisite for what's nearly always a sustained gallop.
As I've mentioned, I don't like the horse, but for those so dismissive of Synchronised...think again, as he has just
posted a solid run, is a very strong stayer and possibly one that hasn't yet reached a peak.
I'd really like to be wrong, but I just can't have Kauto Star at 12yo, and Long Run apart, we're looking at an
average Gold Cup with innumerable question marks against ALL the protagonists.
As I see it, there's EVERY chance of an upset (possibly another Norton's Coin) if Long Run's rhythm is affected
with momentum-losing blunders - if he's fluent, I cannot see anything but an impressive victory.
Chicago Grey fits the bill for me, in that he's a similar sort to some of those listed above, and he'll be a monumental
price as he has a massive amount to make up on the handicap.
I could see him asleep for most of the race, and when the principals will be beating each other up at the front end,
he'll creep into it as the pace starts to take its toll.
Maybe he'll run like Mon Mome did a few years ago, and not get near enough, but I can see him staying on really
strongly from a fair way back, if connections decide to give it a go.
Being realistic, he looks much more like a National horse, but so many of that ilk have run well in Gold Cups over
the last two decades and just a few are listed below.
West Tip
Docklands Express
Miinnehoma
Royal Athlete
Dubacilla
Rough Quest
Hedgehunter
Mon Mome
last decade or so?
Chasers with little or even no apparent chance of being on the premises, and as I mentioned earlier, some not-so
stellar chasers have even WON it!
Royal Athlete
Go Ballistic
Strong Promise
Commanche Court
Truckers Tavern
Harbour Pilot
Sir Rembrandt
Take The Stand
Turpin Green
Most of those listed were exposed beforehand (and subsequently) as having limited ability (on ratings) but that didn't
prevent them from running their career best performances over a gruelling C&D, as their main asset was bottomless
stamina - the main pre-requisite for what's nearly always a sustained gallop.
As I've mentioned, I don't like the horse, but for those so dismissive of Synchronised...think again, as he has just
posted a solid run, is a very strong stayer and possibly one that hasn't yet reached a peak.
I'd really like to be wrong, but I just can't have Kauto Star at 12yo, and Long Run apart, we're looking at an
average Gold Cup with innumerable question marks against ALL the protagonists.
As I see it, there's EVERY chance of an upset (possibly another Norton's Coin) if Long Run's rhythm is affected
with momentum-losing blunders - if he's fluent, I cannot see anything but an impressive victory.
Chicago Grey fits the bill for me, in that he's a similar sort to some of those listed above, and he'll be a monumental
price as he has a massive amount to make up on the handicap.
I could see him asleep for most of the race, and when the principals will be beating each other up at the front end,
he'll creep into it as the pace starts to take its toll.
Maybe he'll run like Mon Mome did a few years ago, and not get near enough, but I can see him staying on really
strongly from a fair way back, if connections decide to give it a go.
Being realistic, he looks much more like a National horse, but so many of that ilk have run well in Gold Cups over
the last two decades and just a few are listed below.
West Tip
Docklands Express
Miinnehoma
Royal Athlete
Dubacilla
Rough Quest
Hedgehunter
Mon Mome
Just one thing on the lexus and the form good or bad, can i ask people on here to say what they would think had the placed horses remained the same in the same order and beaten the same distance, only instead of Synchronised winning it was Kauto Star, would everyone then crab the form as kauto winning by around 10l going away?
as for hugh mongous i have to agree in that the gold cup is very weak and if long run fails to run its race or falls or does not make the race then anything could win this years gold cup, perhaps not chicago grey but you would be able to see many horses winning it, something along the lines of planet of sound or that type, its looking a poor race, therefore if you discount the lexus winner as some have then your not thinking things through properly
My original post was to point out the prices between two horses named initially however for the hell of it and being a punter who likes bigger prices and ew type horses i do believe that the horse to back is Weird Al.
Two runs only for his new trainer and coming in quick order he hosed up in the charlie hall before finishing two lengths behind long run in the betfair.
He has lots of ability has always been well thought of and has potential over the trip he is mine for the gold cup ew but i have to say that i had backed ages ago at around 180-1 Quel Esprit who was my selection after last years festival
Two runs only for his new trainer and coming in quick order he hosed up in the charlie hall before finishing two lengths behind long run in the betfair.
He has lots of ability has always been well thought of and has potential over the trip he is mine for the gold cup ew but i have to say that i had backed ages ago at around 180-1 Quel Esprit who was my selection after last years festival
I have mentioned on other threads my liking of Quel Esprit, however he is entered at Thurles on Saturday in a chase over 2m2f and has not yet proved he stays 3 miles.
I have also put down Synchronised's win in the Lexus, but I have to concede the point about stayers running on in the Gold Cup. Personally couldn't back him, but do take the point.
I have also put down Synchronised's win in the Lexus, but I have to concede the point about stayers running on in the Gold Cup. Personally couldn't back him, but do take the point.
Hugh-Mongous
With the excemption of Mon mome a lot of the examples you have given seem to me to be from a long time ago.
A few years ago did they not put a new drainage system down? and does this mean that the staying plodders of
old would have less chance now?
With the excemption of Mon mome a lot of the examples you have given seem to me to be from a long time ago.
A few years ago did they not put a new drainage system down? and does this mean that the staying plodders of
old would have less chance now?
Tinkler - you might have a point about the drainage system (what year was it?) but recent Gold Cups have been of vintage standard, where the main protagonists have been head & shoulders above the plodding types.
After all, even though Mon Mome was placed, he never got into the race, and was a light year behind (against very classy rivals) whereas the horses in the first list (over the last decade or so) were bang there in contention - that possibly adds credence to your drainage theory.
I think it's much overlooked just how much stamina is required to win an average Gold Cup, and I would suggest that's because the ground is rarely soft, which may throw the 'experts' off the scent.
A more sustained pace on quicker ground is arguably as sapping as a relative crawl on softer ground, and those lists I made were just to illustrate my argument.
The second lists the type of horse that has run well in both the National AND the Gold Cup, though admittedly, most are from more like 20 years ago.
I was just attempting to highlight a pattern, in that the emphasis is very much on stamina, because solid stayers tend to run very well.
I fully expect to get ridiculed for nominating Chicago Grey, but I'm convinced he will run way above expectations, if he takes his chance and doesn't go for the inadequate 3M handicap.
He was well beaten off 150 last time, but I think he's nearer a 160 chaser on his victory in the NH Chase last year.
That puts him within striking distance of all but Long Run & Kauto Star.
After all, even though Mon Mome was placed, he never got into the race, and was a light year behind (against very classy rivals) whereas the horses in the first list (over the last decade or so) were bang there in contention - that possibly adds credence to your drainage theory.
I think it's much overlooked just how much stamina is required to win an average Gold Cup, and I would suggest that's because the ground is rarely soft, which may throw the 'experts' off the scent.
A more sustained pace on quicker ground is arguably as sapping as a relative crawl on softer ground, and those lists I made were just to illustrate my argument.
The second lists the type of horse that has run well in both the National AND the Gold Cup, though admittedly, most are from more like 20 years ago.
I was just attempting to highlight a pattern, in that the emphasis is very much on stamina, because solid stayers tend to run very well.
I fully expect to get ridiculed for nominating Chicago Grey, but I'm convinced he will run way above expectations, if he takes his chance and doesn't go for the inadequate 3M handicap.
He was well beaten off 150 last time, but I think he's nearer a 160 chaser on his victory in the NH Chase last year.
That puts him within striking distance of all but Long Run & Kauto Star.
If 160 puts Chicago Grey "within striking distance" it depends on your definition of "within striking distance".
If this means within 20 lbs of the likely winner this year, I would agree. After all 20 lbs is only 15 lengths or so.
If this means within 20 lbs of the likely winner this year, I would agree. After all 20 lbs is only 15 lengths or so.
Whilst im not sure that Chicago Grey is either going to run or good enough to win lets not forget he was a novice last year and his form with beshabar stacks up, again he is open to a lot of improvement and we know he stays and also can travel in his races, it would be no surprise if he made the frame.
There are two horse with form totally superior to others namely the first two in the betting outside of them its wide open
There are two horse with form totally superior to others namely the first two in the betting outside of them its wide open
It would surprise me if Chicago Grey made the frame. Hammered in the Charlie Hall btn 30l by Weird Al getting 3lb and then last in a Cheltenham handicap. Hugh and Manuel are you tripping. As mentioned previously with the possible exception of Quel Esprit, last seasons novices are not up to scratch, worst generation in living memory.
shockster, in view of them aiming Chicago Grey for the National this year, personally I wouldnt be giving those runs too literal an interpretation. while I agree it is a stretch to see CG placing in a Gold Cup, the general point (of a perceived 'plodder' placing) is a good one I think.
Just So - like your namesake squire
Some DO actually WIN!
Shockster - tripping?
I think this generation of chasers is awful too, and I believe Manuel thinks likewise.
What's made you think I thought they were remotely good?
I thought I'd made it very clear that they're not within a fence of the front two in the market, but there are doubts about them too!
I'm just trying to find an angle, and a 'Norton's Coin' - I do know it's very optimistic
Who's your idea of a possible massive shock?
Some DO actually WIN!
Shockster - tripping?
I think this generation of chasers is awful too, and I believe Manuel thinks likewise.What's made you think I thought they were remotely good?
I thought I'd made it very clear that they're not within a fence of the front two in the market, but there are doubts about them too!
I'm just trying to find an angle, and a 'Norton's Coin' - I do know it's very optimistic
Who's your idea of a possible massive shock?
What A Friend - short head behind Kauto last year in Gold Cup and up until a couple of nights ago was available on here at over 100/1. No Denman this year, Kauto now 12 and I'm not convinced he is any better and has had 2 hard races already. Long Run def not as good as last year as Kauto has beat him twice and only Best mate in last 40 years has retained the championship. If you want another long shot at daft price then Tidal Bay, now with Nicholls, ran 3rd in hurdle race off 160 last week. Argento next.
What A Friend also being trained for the race. P.Nicholls quote in racing post this Tuesday.
Shockster - I have BOTH of them on my side in the AP book...just in case
It's a little odd to doubt Kauto because he's 12 but support an 11 yo horse who has achieved far, far less.
far far far far far far far far less!!!
i give up the game if WAF wins a Gold Cup.
i give up the game if WAF wins a Gold Cup.
Strontium - Tidal Bay?
He's just a speculative few quid at massive odds, and handy as an addition to the portfolio.
Believe me...if Kauto Star was such a massive price, it'd be easy to forget about his pensioner status - it's ALL about value.
PS - someone on here will be laughing at me...I laid Kauto Star for £4 at 85!
He's my worst Gold Cup result at only £20 green, but it'd still be great to see him win it!
He's just a speculative few quid at massive odds, and handy as an addition to the portfolio.
Believe me...if Kauto Star was such a massive price, it'd be easy to forget about his pensioner status - it's ALL about value.
PS - someone on here will be laughing at me...I laid Kauto Star for £4 at 85!
He's my worst Gold Cup result at only £20 green, but it'd still be great to see him win it!
i know Stront,neither have a chance imo,unless TB actually decides to produce what hes probably capable of,but he never does.
Back Your
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
Kauto Star 85 £2.00 £168.00
£2.00
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
Kauto Star 85 £2.00 £168.00
£2.00
I'm only teasing i've not backed it at all at anywhere near 85! Happy you got green out of it though, hope your not too big a red on a winner that week!
I can take it STS - if it hadn't of been you, it'd have been the next in the queue.
I'm still £20 up on Kauto Star, so I'm not whining
Laid for £3.55 @ 85, and for 36p @ 140!
I'm still £20 up on Kauto Star, so I'm not whining
Laid for £3.55 @ 85, and for 36p @ 140!
I do think your winning your £20, many would disagree with me but just have that feeling he is going to do it! Have said it before, and think it is obvious as to the tactics Ruby will employ in the race in that all he will have to do is hold onto him for a good 3-4f further than he did at both Kempton and Haydock to try and get the hill and to do LR for toe again. All SWC will have to worry about is will LR jump better and will he (being an out and out stayer) be able to catch KS on the run in. If KS don't make it up the hill LR wins. Though i wouldn't go as far as to say it is a stick on f/c bet as i am sure if it is LR to win it, KS will have folded on the final climb and he may well get caught for 2nd by a finisher like last year but unlike last year he is obviously in better form this term and so should hold on for a place, if KS wins, LR will surely be 2nd, it is the only way i can see the f/c copping. Yes far too early to be talking about the 1-2 etc, unlike in Imperial Commanders year, this seasons string of top notch 3 mile chasers are very thin on the ground and cannot honestly see anything remotely getting close to the top two in the betting apart from if Ruby gets his fractions wrong or LR jumps fluently.
The fact that there is 5k wanting to lay LR and 7k wanting to back KS with still 10 weeks to go (even if it is chelt fest) is unbelievable!
But, so many imponderables! Which is why i have also backed CC @ 16/1 nrnb and GC at 8/1 nrnb and intend to back Burton Port at 40s if i can get it when i go to place bet and Synch' of which i am holding onto a bit as i think this one may get pushed out a couple of points in the next couple weeks. I like you always look to back a few runners in these races antepost, i can save my bets, a few small bets becomes a big bet and of course they are affordable that way plus the bigger prices you invariably get betting antepost allows you to dutch all the runners you can make an excuse for winning! Though have to admit i cannot see past the front two in this i can make a small reason for the other 4. By far my biggest antepost wager come the day will be e/w on the front two for as long as LR stays 5/2 - 11/4 and KS stays 10/3+!
The fact that there is 5k wanting to lay LR and 7k wanting to back KS with still 10 weeks to go (even if it is chelt fest) is unbelievable!
But, so many imponderables! Which is why i have also backed CC @ 16/1 nrnb and GC at 8/1 nrnb and intend to back Burton Port at 40s if i can get it when i go to place bet and Synch' of which i am holding onto a bit as i think this one may get pushed out a couple of points in the next couple weeks. I like you always look to back a few runners in these races antepost, i can save my bets, a few small bets becomes a big bet and of course they are affordable that way plus the bigger prices you invariably get betting antepost allows you to dutch all the runners you can make an excuse for winning! Though have to admit i cannot see past the front two in this i can make a small reason for the other 4. By far my biggest antepost wager come the day will be e/w on the front two for as long as LR stays 5/2 - 11/4 and KS stays 10/3+!
Well its so nice to be proved correct, that Lexus was form and this horse does not need bad ground, finally a fantastic ride from the champ
Budd - The Lexus was not great form no doubt but to put it in perspective for Synch to do what he did was next to impossible. Consensus beforehand and probably still now for some is Synch optimum trip is 3.5miles in knee deep sh1te. Basically the race had no pace so in effect turned into a 1.5 mile race and Synch beat Rubi Light 8 lengths in a 1.5 mile race on good ground giving him a few lengths start. Now given Rubi's optimum trip is 2.5 mile i think most will agree I'd think that performance is kind of amazing.
Anyway people read races different ways but I think people gonna have to wake up and realise that Synch is a lot more than a mudlard stayer and he's run well on good ground on many occasions now. Can't have him out of the frame in the GC and if he's within 5 lengths come the last not sure what can stop him. To me he should be 2nd fav behind Long Run and come the day even with the Kauto sentimentalists out there he won't be far short of 2nd fav.
Really feels good to proved right. The 16k helps too!
Anyway people read races different ways but I think people gonna have to wake up and realise that Synch is a lot more than a mudlard stayer and he's run well on good ground on many occasions now. Can't have him out of the frame in the GC and if he's within 5 lengths come the last not sure what can stop him. To me he should be 2nd fav behind Long Run and come the day even with the Kauto sentimentalists out there he won't be far short of 2nd fav.
Really feels good to proved right. The 16k helps too!
Guru it is always nice to get things right, i for one could not believe some of the comments regarding sync, sometimes what you see is just what you see and its not wise to look for fault, its not even hindsight as my post was after the lexus itself and of course it appears yours was january, both correct and whatsmore he had a setback prior to the goldcup and its only recently he got back to his best, im sure people will crab the gold cup today, maybe long run is not the horse people think or maybe he has peaked who knows but dont laugh at the giant bolster as thats improving at a rate of knots as it proved by turning around its form with time for rupert, for me it doubled up with BELLVANO another one i posted in feb for the grand annual so a good day all round
Bellvano is a sore point - had 525 ew on Tanks for That at 14's.
At least you collected guru, my bet in the Grand Annual started out the back, stayed at the back and, as far as I know, may still be out there trying to get round!
Great shout Manuel on Synch way back in December. I have to confess I missed that meeting altogether as I was in transit to Thailand that day and when I caught up was too busy getting excited about Last Instalment to be thinking about Synchronised winning the Lexus. When I drew up my shortlist of young progressives after the entries he was at the bottom of it with a "?" then he missed the Irish Hennessy, where I was seeing him a contender, or at least a yardstick to see if Quel Esprit might be good enough, at that stage he was reported not 100% so I put him to the back of my mind. It was only when I read a glowing report on his wellbeing on Thursday that my brain clicked. So very well done on being on his side so early!
Great shout Manuel on Synch way back in December. I have to confess I missed that meeting altogether as I was in transit to Thailand that day and when I caught up was too busy getting excited about Last Instalment to be thinking about Synchronised winning the Lexus. When I drew up my shortlist of young progressives after the entries he was at the bottom of it with a "?" then he missed the Irish Hennessy, where I was seeing him a contender, or at least a yardstick to see if Quel Esprit might be good enough, at that stage he was reported not 100% so I put him to the back of my mind. It was only when I read a glowing report on his wellbeing on Thursday that my brain clicked. So very well done on being on his side so early!
by the way everyone was crabbing sync and calling him saying he was just a handicapper and that a handicapper couldnt win the gold cup with the big two around, well if i am not mistaken he has only ever had 9 runs over fences with the 8th being the lexus and the ninth the gold cup and one of the others was the welsh natioal and of the nine chase runs he has won six of them and third in two others, just to put a little more perspective on it LONG RUN has had sixteen chase runs......finally yesterdays gold cup had the two most progressive chasers in the field first and second, the giant bolster has improved hand over fist since going up in trip and changing tactics and you would be foolish to think he is a poor runner up
I was pretty keen on The Giant Bolster before Newbury manuel, I knew he was way better suited by Cheltenham but decided he was unlikely to get the trip after the Denman Chase effort. Got that wrong! Long Run was on his 14th chase not 16th, most chasers improve age 6 to 7 or 7 to 8 or 8 to 9 because they are gaining experience rather than because of physical maturity.
Running in handicaps has never been a bar to success in the CGC, someone on the main HR forum was saying he could only remember Master oats stepping up in last 20 years. A quick check revealed that almost every CGC winner had been campaigned at least partially in handicaps in last 20 years! Kauto Star ran in 3, Denman hennessy, Imperial Commander paddy power, Long Run paddy power, , Jodami ran in 4 handicaps, See More Business ran in a few handicaps, Imperial Call ran in a novice handicap, Cool Ground loads of handicaps, Cool Dawn same after graduating from hunter chases, Best Mate first 2 starts out of novice company in handicaps, even former King George winners The Fellow and See More Business ran in handicaps the season they won the Gold Cup!
Running in handicaps has never been a bar to success in the CGC, someone on the main HR forum was saying he could only remember Master oats stepping up in last 20 years. A quick check revealed that almost every CGC winner had been campaigned at least partially in handicaps in last 20 years! Kauto Star ran in 3, Denman hennessy, Imperial Commander paddy power, Long Run paddy power, , Jodami ran in 4 handicaps, See More Business ran in a few handicaps, Imperial Call ran in a novice handicap, Cool Ground loads of handicaps, Cool Dawn same after graduating from hunter chases, Best Mate first 2 starts out of novice company in handicaps, even former King George winners The Fellow and See More Business ran in handicaps the season they won the Gold Cup!
manuel
hope you won a fortune with this one and bellvano
very impressive work indeed
hope you won a fortune with this one and bellvano
very impressive work indeed
I didnt win huge as to be honest i dont bet huge its wins in the hundreds on these not in the thousands, its almost as pleasing to have your view vindicated and know that your brain and knowledge are still in tact
yeah sums of money don't matter
thought process and method more important
thought process and method more important
Totally agree and a big well done on tipping up Synchronised,and all his backers.
My feeling is he benifitted big time on Kauto pulling up as he was the horse i expected to prevent Synch and many others fron figuring in the finish.
Kauto pulling up imo had a huge effect on the race.
All the same,congrats.
My feeling is he benifitted big time on Kauto pulling up as he was the horse i expected to prevent Synch and many others fron figuring in the finish.
Kauto pulling up imo had a huge effect on the race.
All the same,congrats.
well done manuel its nice when a plan comes together !
also think synchronised could rate a fair bit higher than he already is , if only he could jump fluently ,he seems to scramble his way over fences and makes small mistakes if these could be ironed out he would be frightning!
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