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Anaglogs Daughter
31 Aug 11 18:39
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 6,316 | Blogger: Anaglogs Daughter's blog
Nine Irish in Cesarewitch The last Irish-trained winner of the was Leg Spinner for Tony Martin in 2007 and there are nine entries from Ireland for this year's edition of the Newmarket marathon..

Dermot Weld, triumphant in 1992 with subsequent Group One Melbourne Cup winner  Vintage Crop, could rely on Rainforest Magic (8st 1lb) while Martin may run Buy Back Bob (8st 4lb) and fellow Irish handler David Wachman could saddle Mount Athos (9st 2lb).

Aidan O’Brien’s quintet includes Group Three Queen’s Vase fourth Regent Street (8st 6lb) and Melrose Handicap third Apache (8st 1lb), while Noel Meade could run top-class hurdler Donnas Palm (8st).

Tuscan Gold(8st) is the current 10/1 Betfred favourite for the heritage handicap. Sir Mark Prescott’s progressive charge, successful twice and runner-up three times from five starts last term, was unfortunate to unseat Stevie Donohoe when leaving the stalls on his recent seasonal reappearance at York on August 18th.

Nicky Henderson has twice captured the Betfred Cesarewitch thanks to Landing Light (2003) and Caracciola (2008). He has a talented duo going forward in Sentry Duty (8st 11lb) and the talented mare Veiled (8st 9lb) successful in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June.

THE BETFRED CESAREWITCH

Class 2, Heritage Handicap, £160,000 Total Prize Fund.4.15pm, Newmarket, Saturday, October 8, 2011.  2m 2f


411246  FOX HUNT (IRE)  4-9-10  Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum Mark Johnston

D-00112 LACATENO   4-9-08  Gestut Ittlingen             Waldemar Hickst GER

6//30-441 PETARABAY(IRE)  7-9-08  Bernie Ecclestone, J Humphreys, Mrs B Mills Robert Mills

225-212 TACTICIAN   4-9-08  The Queen    Michael Bell

401-302 DIAMOND BOY (FR)  5-9-08  Mrs B Destremau   Francois Doumen FR

1-54026 AAIM TO PROSPER (IRE) 7-9-07  CGA Racing Partnership 2  Brian Meehan

0-(1)4440 MOUNT ATHOS (IRE)  4-9-02  Dr Marwan Koukash   David Wachman IRE

30-0610 SWINGKEEL (IRE)  6-9-01  Heather Slade    John Dunlop

30062-0 DARLEY SUN (IRE)  5-9-00  Godolphin    Saeed bin Suroor

23/2/10-0 MAMLOOK (IRE)  7-8-12  Peter Deal & G Lowe   David Pipe

0610-30 AJAAN    7-8-12  Niarchos Family   Sir Henry Cecil

636-060 SENTRY DUTY (FR)  9-8-11  Peter Spiller    Nicky Henderson

511-10B ACTIVATE   4-8-10  Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Tudor Minstrel Michael Bell

0(1)(4)-305 MYSTERY STAR (IRE)  6-8-10  John Brenchley    Mark Tompkins

31-0324 MOUNTAIN HIKER (IRE) 4-8-09  Saeed Suhail    Jeremy Noseda

31/0010- BERNIE THE BOLT (IRE) 5-8-09  B P McGuire    Andrew Balding

1(4)/00-11 VEILED   5-8-09  Pump & Plant Services Ltd  Nicky Henderson

2/121-  BIG OCCASION (IRE)  4-8-09  The Old Betfairians   David Pipe

0-03614 ILE DE RE (FR)  5-8-08  Michael Watt    Ian Williams

(2)4(2)11 KEYS (IRE)   4-8-08  Seasons Holidays   Roger Charlton

203-(0)00 PLYMOUTHROCK (IRE) 5-8-07  Arashan Ali    Jeremy Noseda

3001-40 DAYIA (IRE)   7-8-07  Lady Green    Lydia Pearce

0(1)(3)000 BAY WILLOW (IRE)  4-8-06  Godolphin    Saeed bin Suroor

11-0012 KAZBOW (IRE)  5-8-06  Bruce Corman    Luca Cumani

(1)-23405 REGENT STREET(IRE) 3-8-06  Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE

(2)(3)/(2)-240 WALDVOGEL (IRE)  7-8-06  Craig Bennett    Nicky Richards

0-00003 LA VECCHIA SCUOLA (IRE) 7-8-05  Johnnie Delta Racing   Jim Goldie

342001  DAZINSKI   5-8-05  Beryl Lockey    Mark Tompkins

101-224 ERMYN LODGE  5-8-04  Ermyn Lodge Stud & Heatherwold Stud Pat Phelan

2131-50 ASHBRITTLE   4-8-04  J L Rowsell & Peter Deal  Ralph Beckett

010060  ENGLISH SUMMER  4-8-04  Dr Marwan Koukash   Mark Johnston

2413(0)3- BUY BACK BOB (IRE)  4-8-04  Patsy Byrne    Tony Martin IRE

0-12304 HAWKMOUNTAIN(UAE) 6-8-04  Paul Morrison & Nick Luck  John Quinn

0-130  ADMIRAL OF THE RED (IRE) 3-8-03  Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE

001124  COLOUR VISION (FR)  3-8-03  Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum Mark Johnston

(0)10/-042 DOWNHILLER (IRE)  6-8-03  Windflower Overseas Holdings Inc John Dunlop

001004  MY ARCH   9-8-02  J D Spensley & Mrs M A Spensley Ollie Pears

(1)(1)(1)(1)50 LA ESTRELLA (USA)  8-8-02  Don Cantillon    Don Cantillon

(1)(0)(0)3(0)6PHOENIX FLIGHT (IRE) 6-8-02  D Ross     James Evans

16(1)/-200 SUNWISE (USA)  5-8-02  Highclere Thoroughbred Racing - Sunwise William Haggas

2-23103 APACHE (IRE)   3-8-01  Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE

2-22350 PLATO (JPN)   4-8-01  Niarchos Family   Sir Henry Cecil

06636-1 RAINFOREST MAGIC (IRE) 4-8-01  Dr Ronan Lambe/Dermot Weld  Dermot Weld IRE

1/043-00 BRAVEHEART MOVE (IRE) 5-8-01  C H McGhie    Geoffrey Harker

2(2)12(1)-U TUSCAN GOLD  4-8-00  The Green Door Partnership  Sir Mark Prescott Bt

(5)46334- OCEAN'S MINSTREL  5-8-00  W McLuskey    John Ryan

240232  HONG KONGISLAND (IRE) 4-8-00  Terri Anne Nixon   Micky Hammond

02(5)333REGAL PARK (IRE)  4-8-00  Andrew Tinkler    Marco Botti

12/1-  DONNAS PALM (IRE)  7-8-00  Grand Alliance Racing Club  Noel Meade IRE

520004  NAVE (USA)   4-8-00  Anthony Hogarth   Mark Johnston

00/-0201 GIFTED LEADER (USA) 6-8-00  Gifted Leader Partners   Ian Williams

510-004 PALOMAR (USA)  9-7-13  Koo's Racing Club   Brian Ellison

3/12-430 ALAZAN (IRE)   5-7-13  Caren Walsh & Richard Budge  Philip Hobbs

0(1)-(4)212 NEVER CAN TELL (IRE) 4-7-13  Dr Marwan Koukash   Jamie Osborne

311501  BOLLIN JUDITH  5-7-13  Sir Neil Westbrook   Tim Easterby

(6)30300 EXEMPLARY   4-7-13  Dr Marwan Koukash   Mark Johnston

(1)2/(3)(2)-(2)0 RIGHT STUFF (FR)  8-7-12  The Ashden Partnership & Partners Gary Moore

(3)(1)(1)-1 BEYOND (IRE)   4-7-12  Robin Geffen    David Pipe

510651  COSIMO DE MEDICI  4-7-12  Bevan, Doyle & Lawrence  Hughie Morrison

501522  RED ANTHEM   4-7-12  G B Partnership   Gerard Butler

463650  BOWDLER'S MAGIC  4-7-12  Paul Dean    Mark Johnston

012103  ROSEWIN (IRE)  5-7-11  Major P H K Steveney   Ollie Pears

(0)(6)0410SHERMAN MCCOY  5-7-11  Mustajed Partnership   Rod Millman

0242-40 ABERGAVENNY  4-7-11  Dan Gilbert & Kristian Strangeway Brian Ellison

3/30425- ALCALDE   5-7-10  The Alhambra Partnership  John Berry

23(1)13/4/- TASHEBA   6-7-10  Terry Benson    David Pipe

32315////- MOBAASHER (USA)  8-7-10  Seasons Holidays   Rod Millman

000060  BECAUSEWECAN (USA) 5-7-10  Douglas Livingston   Mark Johnston

06-0201HOLLINS   7-7-09  R D Bickenson    Micky Hammond

330030  TROVARE (USA)  4-7-09  John Connolly    Amanda Perrett

06-500(0) L FRANK BAUM (IRE)  4-7-08  Aussie Connection   Gay Kelleway

622(5)(1)(6)- VALID REASON  4-7-08  M J Yarrow    Dean Ivory

200003  MONTPARNASSE(IRE) 4-7-08  Dr Marwan Koukash   Mark Johnston

0-06130 WELLS LYRICAL (IRE) 6-7-08  M Barber    Bryan Smart

310445  GOGEO (IRE)   4-7-08  Mrs J Porter    Alan Swinbank

0/02111//- BLIMEY O'RILEY (IRE) 6-7-07  Trevor Benton    Mark Tompkins

4-03055 GORDONSVILLE  8-7-07  Thomson Fyffe Racing   Jim Goldie

(4)-00246 BOW TO NO ONE (IRE) 5-7-07  Bob Morton    Alan Jarvis

(2)(3)-0151 LONG LIVE THE KING (IRE) 3-7-07  Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE

4/(0)060-6 BOTHY   5-7-07  Dan Gilbert    Brian Ellison

1(1)(5)122 MONEY MONEY MONEY 5-7-06  Jenny Willment    Rod Millman

41543  NANTUCKET BAY (USA) 3-7-06  Sue Magnier, MichaelTabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O'Brien IRE

350111  FRENCH HOLLOW  6-7-06  Tim Fitzgerald    Tim Fitzgerald

034222  ESHTYAAQ   4-7-06  Trevor Gallienne   David Evans

(2)(1)2312 MOHANAD (IRE)  5-7-05  Heart of the South Racing  Sheena West

1300///0-6 SECRET TUNE  7-7-05  R Davies    Shaun Lycett

(4)02060 MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR (IRE) 8-7-05 Broughton Thermal Insulation  Willie Musson

(1)52416 MANIFESTATION  3-7-05  H R H Princess Haya of Jordan  John Gosden

(5)(4)(1)(1)(0)3COTTON KING   4-7-05  Sarah Hamilton    Tobias Coles

122043/- MR CRYSTAL (FR)  7-7-04  Champagne Ascent Partnership  Micky Hammond

(3)5(1)3(2)-0 SEA CHANGE (IRE)  4-7-04  Ambrose Turnbull   Jim Goldie

33(2)(0)-11 LASTROSEOFSUMMER (IRE) 5-7-03  E P Duggan    Rae Guest

061546  SIMONSIDE   8-7-03  Racing Management & Training Ltd Brian Ellison

(1)(1)(3)-(1)20BLACKMORE   4-7-03  Good Company Partnership  Julia Feilden

6/-20560 ADVISOR (FR)   5-7-02  The Royal Ascot Racing Club  Michael Bell

(3)(1)-2226 HAWAAFEZ   3-7-01  Hamdan Al Maktoum   Marcus Tregoning

(1)15060 HALIFAX(IRE)   3-7-01  Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum Mark Johnston

401000/- PATEESE (FR)   6-7-01  The Test Valley Partnership  Philip Hobbs

645(1)1 PLANETOID (IRE)  3-7-00  Bjorn Nielsen    David Lanigan

1-43421 SLIGHT ADVANTAGE (IRE) 3-6-13  The City & Provincial Partnership Clive Cox

411304  JOHN FORBES  9-6-13  Brian Ellison    Brian Ellison

14(4)/-465SPIEKEROOG   5-6-12  G Schoeningh    David O'Meara

1-(5)10(0)2 DARK RANGER  5-6-12  Recycled Products Limited  Tim Pitt

540-414 FORREST FLYER (IRE) 7-6-12  Camille Macdonald   Jim Goldie

612241  PETELLA   5-6-10  A Crute & Partners   George Moore

133446  SANCHO PANZA  4-6-09  Carol Bushnell & Partners  Julia Feilden

(2)6(4)3(4)(2)  ROSEWOOD LAD  4-6-09  Miss D L Wisbey & R J Viney  Stan Moore

46025  JONNY DELTA  4-6-09  Johnnie Delta Racing   Jim Goldie

406415  WAYWARD GLANCE  3-6-09  The Queen    Michael Bell

0-00152 NEPTUNE EQUESTER  8-6-09  Koo's Racing Club II   Brian Ellison

5////(0)-2113 SOPRANO (GER)  9-6-04  Johnnie Delta Racing   Jim Goldie

006504  KINGSDALE ORION (IRE) 7-6-01  Koo's Racing Club   Brian Ellison

112 Entries remain
Pause Switch to Standard View THE CESAREWITCH
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Report roobuck August 31, 2011 10:48 PM BST
I also like Keys.

Would also be interested in Bernie the Bolt, as long as it has another run beforehand.
Report zilzal1 September 1, 2011 12:21 AM BST
IMO if it comes up good or better its Mount Athos's race to lose. ive thought he needed this since the Chester Cup and i havent changed my opinion
Report Beryl September 3, 2011 3:42 PM BST
I got Bothy's rating wrong. He was dropped 3 pound for his comeback race so he is rated 79 for this.

Michael Bell has said that Tactician is unlikely to go for this.
Report Beryl September 3, 2011 4:00 PM BST
Zilzal, do you not think Mount Athos may wait for the stayers race at Ascot the following week?

Fox Hunt, Petara Bay, Aaim to Prosper and Mount Athos are all entered for the Ascot race. It is a group 3 and has a prize fund of 200k.

I wonder if the French or German horses will turn up.

I'm trying to work out who will be top weight on the day.
Report SOULDANCER September 6, 2011 9:15 AM BST
Googled Cesarewitch trends and came across this, draw changes to low numbers now, though.            WEDNESDAY, 13 OCTOBER 2010
Cesarewitch trends Saturday 16th Oct
If this distance race does not get you tingling - your already dead

The Totesport.com Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 16th October and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Credit Swap two weeks ago.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-23
4yo: 2-7-102
5yo: 1-10-80
6yo: 3-8-55
7yo: 1-2-42
8yo+: 2-2-30
Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-205).
5 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year, the only non-hurdler aged 6+ to have won this was Sergeant Cecil, who subsequently won at group 1 level.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-0-19
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-61
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-10-74
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 4-6-80
Horses carrying 7-13 or less: 0-9-98 (note that the 10% place stat for the minor placings)
In recent years higher weights have held the advantage with 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 8-11 or more, though there has been no very strong trend regarding the weights.
Top Weight: 0900000059 (0-0-10)
Record of horses carrying a penalty: 0-4-37

Official Ratings
Horses rated 99 to 107: 1-1-28
Horses rated 86 to 98: 6-12-159
Horses rated 85 or lower: 3-17-145
Horses officially rated 86 to 98 have won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 4) and filled 11 of the 16 places in the last 4 years.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)



9 of 10 winners had not run in the past 4 weeks
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps

8 of 10 winners ran at class 2 or higher last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts
7 of 10 winners (last 6) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start
7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level
6 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (5 of the 6 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-5) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 5 runners in the past 10 years.
Mark Johnston (1-0-14) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000, though his other 13 runners all failed to make the frame.
Jeff Pearce (0-2-2) and Dermot Weld (0-2-3) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in the past decade.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 10 runnings (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).
Irish-trained runners (1-6-16) have made the frame with 7 of 16 runners, though Tony Martin accounts for the winner and 2 places, and he has no entry in the race this year.

Draw
Horses drawn 1-16: 1-12-160
Horses drawn 17+: 9-18-172
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn 17 or higher.
7 of the last 9 winners were drawn 23 or higher.( Interesting counter stat of races run over last five years gives a slight advantage to draws 3 7 10 17 22 25 26 27 28 35 - but that is not this race merely the facts of all runs this distance

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 but the other 9 winners since 2000 were all priced 16/1 or below and came from the first 7 in the betting.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division
This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there. ( in running punters should look for a lay early -
hold up horses should be looked at with an in running eye

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5
or hurdles runner aged 6+
Not carrying a penalty
Officially rated 86 to 98
Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 2 or higher
Posted highest RPR in last 2 flat starts
Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps
Won over at least 2 miles
Won over hurdles (and ran at this years Cheltenham Festival)
Contested a group or listed race
Drawn 17 or higher
Priced 16/1 or below
Likes to be held up or settled in midfield
Trained by Nicky Henderson or another NH trainer


Conclusion -- saturday Morning ---
this as always is a head scratcher - Sentry Duty 10/1 Ticks so many boxes its impossible to leave out -especially with Peslier Booked ! for the older horses with flat and NH form it has been trained to the minute for this - Henderson not really getting his act together does not worry me


however  there are at least  7 animals that I could select and that's gotta be a worry for trend backers - here are the others


Oceans Minstrel14/1  - Aim To Prosper 21/1 - Red Cadeaux16/1  - Act Of Kalanisi 49/1 -Gala Evening 47/1 -   and Universal Truth 10/1 - this year could even give a chance to the top weight Bergo 33/1


most of them tick many of the boxes -the layoff that seems necessary  and hold up horses -


And an update at 1.12 today sorry  - I love the profile of La Vecchia Scola  and will definitive having a bet on her she is a very good mare indeed!!!


so an in running race for me on these and thats the feel of it !


Posted by bobT at Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Report Pinza September 6, 2011 11:50 AM BST
I've given up on Racecallers stats (as above)after Ebor and also Borough Hcp last week.
Ten years isn't really enough data for a race which began in 1839.
Thanks for the Draw reminder though.

It's best to look at the positive stats as a starter

Just look for a horse that has won a National Hunt race and/or that ran in a Pattern race.

21 of the last 23 winners finished in first five on latest run.

Thats your starter list.
Then adjust according by deleting those with the negative stats such as draw, penalty and days since run.

Apprentice riders have won twice in that period.
Report Pinza September 6, 2011 12:18 PM BST
year    Winner         Age    Weight    Trainer           S.P
                   
1974    Ocean King    8    7-07    Arthur Pitt    25
1975    Shantallah    3    8-10    Harry Wragg    7
1976    John Cherry    5    9-13    Jeremy Tree    6.5
1977    Assured            4       8-04    Henry Candy    10
1978    Centurion    3    9-08    Ian Balding    9/2 F
1979    Sir Michael    3    7-08    Geoff Huffer    10
1980    Popsi's Joy    4    8-06    Michael Haynes    10
1981    Halsbury    3    8-04    Peter Walwyn    14
1982    Mountain Lodge    3    7-10    John Dunlop    9
1983    Bajan Sunshine    4    8-08    Rod Simpson    7/1 JF
1984    Tom Sharp    4    7-05    Walter Wharton    40
1985    Kayudee            5    8-01    Jimmy FitzGerald 7
1986    Orange Hill [1]    4    7-09    Jeremy Tree    20
1987    Private Audit'n    5    7-09    Mark Tompkins    50
1988    Nomadic Way    3    7-09    Barry Hills    6/1 JF
1989    Double Dutch    5    9-10    Brooke Sanders    7.5
1990    Trainglot    3    7-12    Jimmy FitzGerald 6.5
1991    Go South    7    7-11    John Jenkins    33
1992    Vintage Crop    5    9-06    Dermot Weld    5/1 F
1993    Aahsaylad    7    8-12    John White    12
1994    Captain's Guest    4    9-09    Guy Harwood    25
1995    Old Red     5    7-11    Mary Reveley    11
1996    Inchcailloch    7    7-03    Jeff King    20
1997    Turnpole    6    7-10    Mary Reveley    16
1998    Spirit of Love    3    8-08    Mark Johnston    11
1999    Top Cees [1]    9    8-10    Ian Balding    7
2000    Heros Fatal    6    8-01    Martin Pipe    11
2001    Distant Prosp't    4    8-08    Ian Balding    14
2002    Miss Fara    7    8-00    Martin Pipe    12
2003    Landing Light    8    9-04    Nicky Henderson    12
2004    Contact Dancer    5    8-02    Mark Johnston    16
2005    Sergeant Cecil    6    9-08    Rod Millman    10
2006    Detroit City    4    9-01    Philip Hobbs    9/2 F
2007    Leg Spinner    6    8-11    Tony Martin    14
2008    Caracciola    11    9-06    Nicky Henderson    50
2009    Darley Sun    3    8-06    David Simcock    9/2 F
2010    Aaim to Prosper    6    7-13    Brian Meehan    16
Report Beryl September 6, 2011 8:36 PM BST
Bothy removed from a number of lists including here. He must be injured.

Done my dough, thought he was handicap snip.
Report jack07 September 6, 2011 9:10 PM BST
is oceans minstrel an intened runner?
thanks
Report johnnyrant September 6, 2011 9:37 PM BST
Can horses be supplemented still? Was expecting, and hoping, for Tominator to be declared, and Motivado.
Report Beryl September 7, 2011 7:06 AM BST
Johhny, you can't supplement a horse into a handicap.
Report sintonian September 7, 2011 10:55 AM BST
Oceans Minstrel has been backed today a little bit. I've no idea if they have simply waited for this race or if he has just been injured. I suspect he has had a setback of somekind because it is odd not to have run for a year but connections will probably reveal all in due course. The horse is 1lb lower than when finishing 4th last season behind Aim To Prosper.
Report zilzal1 September 7, 2011 11:02 AM BST
Think its pricewise, sint
Report sintonian September 7, 2011 11:15 AM BST
ok cheers Zil. Did Tom say why he thought it had not run since last years race ?
Report zilzal1 September 7, 2011 11:21 AM BST
Just saw it in the main forum, havent got the post yet
Report morpteh mackem September 7, 2011 7:53 PM BST
tom gave om a favourable mention, checked with stable and its been oms target all season.
Report sintonian September 7, 2011 10:21 PM BST
My word just seen that Mobaasher has an entry. Laugh
Report Anaglogs Daughter September 14, 2011 10:34 AM BST
Injured Mamlook ruled out of Cesarewitch

BY JAMES BURN RACINGPOST.COM

LAST year's Chester Cup winner Mamlook will not be able to add another prestigious Flat prize to his cv after he was ruled out of next month's Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket.
Priced between 16-1 and 20-1 for the marathon handicap, Mamlook finished third in the2008 Cesarewitch and second a year later.
However, he will not run in this year's race on October 8.

Trainer David Pipe wrote on his website: "Unfortunately we have had to scratch Mamlook [from the Cesarewitch]. The seven-year-old son of Key Of Luck went for a racecourse gallop last week and came back with a bit of heat in a fore leg and the vet has confirmed that he is going to need some time off."

Pipe's remaining Cesarewitch entriesare Big Occasion, Beyond and Tasheba.
Report Rowley Mile September 14, 2011 1:31 PM BST
Lads, any views on the ces trial at newmarket this weekend ?
I'm interested in hollins, i thought they said they were keeping him for a novice chasing campaign after his goodwoood win but obviously a tilt at the cesarewitch is on the cards presuming he'll sneak into it.
Also, i see pipe has entered big occasion in the trial who looks interesting but hard to assess his chances on paper obviously. I notice also the ownership changed to a syndicate called the old betfairians as recently as yesterday [:x] but has been a long time off the track. Initially i liked the look of beyond from this stable also.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 18, 2011 8:07 PM BST
Sint, Headmaster because You must be and I think you are really shrewd .. and of course the other bright ones amongst us .. Will Dark Ranger get in do you think? About No 107 on the list (first page). Or have I thrown my money away again? I had the same sort of feeling about that one from Malton trained by (think it was) Mr Fitzgerald beginning with L that was placed I think. Something like Lisinopril or Escargot with a L and might have got a .. got on the end but definitely started with L. Good day today with Rangers (oh yes diddly ding dong) and then you've guessed it Man U (just over evens on here). Wife happy and so is (will be) my dear Bank Manager (fascist). What is the field size in the Cesarewich please.
Report Rowley Mile September 18, 2011 8:40 PM BST
Inchnadamph ?
Report bazzar September 18, 2011 11:16 PM BST
Strangely the safety limit is 35 for the CAMBRIDGESHIRE and 34 for
the CESAREWITCH.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 19, 2011 6:14 AM BST
That's the one Rowley. thank - you.
Report bazzar September 19, 2011 2:59 PM BST
Why is MOUNT ATHOS drifting in betting, anybody know?
Report bazzar September 20, 2011 7:05 PM BST
So nobody knows why MOUNT ATHOS is drifting, nothing on IRISH site and can't find WACHMAN'S site, for a reason?
Report stevo1 September 22, 2011 9:53 PM BST
Downhiller for me lightly raced on way back from injury with good run lto, goes at at Newmarket and likes bit of cut, large price e/w?
Report liberator of the oppressed September 23, 2011 6:06 PM BST
DARK RANGER .. do you think I'll get a run? ANYBODY please.
Report zilzal1 September 23, 2011 6:28 PM BST
Very much doubt it Loto
Report dan hardcore September 23, 2011 7:16 PM BST
you never know as noddies way got in last year, will likely be about 10lbs wrong though if he does.
bothy out with a tendon injury, plan will be to come and have a crack at this next year!
Report sintonian September 27, 2011 10:16 AM BST
John Ryan reports Ocean's Minstrel right on course for the Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket on October 8, despite suffering a slight setback.

The five-year-old has not run since finishing fourth in the two-and-a-quarter-mile marathon last autumn and was a last-minute withdrawal from a two-mile handicap at HQ on Thursday.

"That has always been the plan. He had a silly hiccup last week. I put him in a Listed race just to give him a run as he hadn't been out for a long time," said the Newmarket trainer.

"It was a case of being sensible and not to run him.

"He has worked well since and Martin Lane is booked to ride him again.

"They made a good partnership in the race last year and it looks as though he's going to get in off a light-ish weight.

"I'm happy with the way the horse is going and I wouldn't be concerned about the ground.

"It's been a long-standing plan, but we've got options for him afterwards abroad.

"This is a starting point, but he'll be 110% for it."

Ocean's Minstrel has been allotted 8st and runs off a 1lb lower mark than in 2010.

He is generally available at 16-1.
Report sintonian September 27, 2011 10:20 AM BST
Was looking at Bow To No One at a big price, 40/1. Currently rated 81 so might just squeak in. Has an entry for Ascot this Firday 30th Sept, so  i'll wait and see if they take up that engagement first. They probably will as he has ran some good races at Ascot. Martin Lane rides him aswell coincidentally so would be an interesting choice for the lad IF they were both to run in the Ces.
Report sintonian September 27, 2011 10:26 AM BST
Unlucky with Bothy,Dan.

All well with the Ebor winner ?
Report Augustine September 27, 2011 1:58 PM BST
Roger Charlton has said that Keys had traces of mucus in his lungs this morning and anyone wanting to back him should wait until nearer the race.

All trainers should be as informative.
Report dan hardcore September 27, 2011 3:06 PM BST
yeah he's fine thanks sint, everyone over there very happy with him.
Report Far From Trouble September 27, 2011 4:56 PM BST
Hope Noel Meade sees sense and sends Donna's Palm over, would be a penalty kick off 86, even in a race like this
Report seaside dreamer October 2, 2011 9:09 PM BST
phoenix flight looks interesting getting 7lb off veiled and over 100/1. backed sentry duty last year and think will go closer this time.
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 9:26 PM BST
does anyone have an opinion on Beckett's Ashbrittle, or Balding's Bernie The Bolt.

trying to get an idea if they will run
Report comingupthehill October 3, 2011 12:06 AM BST
all the main fancies,mount athos,tuscan gold,vieled,hawaafez,have form with or a line can be found with montparnasse.5th in the trial last year was always going to be too much for a 3 yr old,at the start of this campaign joined mark johnson(owner - koukash),hes been taking it easy ,set to carry 7 12,9 horses at this weight mark have been placed,but none won(so its due).at 50/1 represents great value
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 3, 2011 12:35 PM BST
Roger Charlton just tweeted

"Keys on course for the Cesarewitch after a clean scope this morning I was pleased with his work on Saturday but we need a good week with him"
Report liberator of the oppressed October 3, 2011 6:18 PM BST
Abergavenny 33/1 first five with the Nanny.
Report penzance October 3, 2011 6:34 PM BST
don't think the PW horse as been declared-Oceans Minstrel.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 3, 2011 7:22 PM BST
Jamie Osborne twitter
2I can confirm that L Dettori will ride Never Can Tell for Dr Marwan Koukash in Saturdays Cesarewitch2.
Report manyana October 4, 2011 9:50 AM BST
does anyone know why La vecchia scuola has been taken out...is it injured?
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 4, 2011 11:26 AM BST
Richard Hughes rides Keys in Cesarewitch. J.Spencer is stateside for Ed Vaughan
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 4, 2011 11:29 AM BST
David Pipes horses: William Buick booked to ride Beyond, Joseph O'Brien on Big Occasion and Kieren O'Neill will ride Tasheba.
Report zilzal1 October 4, 2011 11:57 AM BST
Any news about the participation of Mount Athos, ground will suit and ever since the Chester Cup ive put him down as the winner, carried a big weight when winning a handicap before and this isnt a good a race as chester
Report RozelKid October 4, 2011 12:49 PM BST
im hoping Bernie the Bolt is going to run.

I see D Probert is on the booked jockeys list , i hope that means good news.

It hasnt raced since August last year so i dont hold much hope.

Anyone have any news about the horse?

Thanks in advance.
Report Terry Venables October 4, 2011 12:52 PM BST
Big ask to win a race like this after well over a year off.

Doesn't look that well handicapped to me either.
Report RozelKid October 4, 2011 1:05 PM BST
mmm, beginning to agree.

shame , as i have a double running onto her with Danedream
Report zilzal1 October 4, 2011 1:09 PM BST
Just as well wait for the draw now, no real rain predicted for this week
Report bazzar October 4, 2011 4:07 PM BST
Does David Wachman have a site and if he does, can someone post the address, please?
Thanks in advance.
Report BIG AL 9 BALL October 5, 2011 5:06 PM BST
my mates had a big bet eachway on Tuscan Gold at 10/1--any thoughts?
Report Facts October 5, 2011 6:25 PM BST
No one's mentioned the winner yet -imo
Report zilzal1 October 5, 2011 6:40 PM BST
Jimmy Fortune booked, shades of John CherryCool
Report liam the lips October 5, 2011 7:36 PM BST
Abergavenny pour moi, single fig draw wud be nice
Report Augustine October 5, 2011 8:32 PM BST
Fortune ain't no Lester Piggott though, Zil.

John Cherry - now there was a horse. I remember him trotting up in the Chester Cup earlier that year and then he absolutely cantered in in the Ces. There was something about those Jock Whitney colours - pink with black and white striped sleeves. Off the top of my head: Baptism, Bright Finish, Intermission, Peace, Peacetime and, of course, Sea Pigeon.
Report zilzal1 October 5, 2011 8:34 PM BST
Fortune rides HQ well Augustine imo

He only has to sit and pointCool
Report bazzar October 5, 2011 8:39 PM BST
When JOHN CHERRY won the Chester Cup, JIMMY LINDLEY said that we had a horse to repel the French challenge in the Ascot Gold Cup, sorry JIMMY the horse was a gelding.
Report Facts October 5, 2011 9:59 PM BST
Had his limitations did our Jimmy !
Report sintonian October 6, 2011 9:03 AM BST
What wins Facts ?

Anyone fancy the Weld runner ?
Report Koo.... October 6, 2011 10:02 AM BST
Tasheba last one to make the cut, reserves are available for this race though
Report jolly buoy October 6, 2011 10:18 AM BST
KOO, WHAT ARE THE NON RUNNERS FROM THE TOP 34 ENTRIES? Thanks
Report Madhu October 6, 2011 10:19 AM BST
HI Koo...

Where do you get final decs so fast?
Report Koo.... October 6, 2011 11:18 AM BST
I work part time for the company that does the decs.   Sometimes they let me get control of the draw randomiser machine, but couldnt get near enough today to get a better draw for Abergavenny as well as Palomar today sadly.
Report SteveBowers October 6, 2011 11:23 AM BST
when will the draw be published?
Report Koo.... October 6, 2011 11:24 AM BST
all done and dusted already
Report Facts October 6, 2011 11:27 AM BST
All on RP website ( Sat.decs.)
Report Facts October 6, 2011 11:32 AM BST
sintonian

I've backed Cosimo De Medici
Report Koo.... October 6, 2011 11:37 AM BST
Sc

Dr

   
HorseTrainerWeightJockey

1(9)Mount Athos (IRE)

David Wachman, Ireland 9st 10lb  Jimmy Fortune

2(1)Sentry Duty (FR)

Nicky Henderson 9st 5lb Johnny Murtagh

3(12)Mystery Star (IRE)Mark H. Tompkins

9st 4lb Martin Dwyer

4(8)Bernie The Bolt (IRE) Andrew Balding

9st 3lb David Probert

5(22)Veiled Nicky Henderson

9st 3lb Eddie Ahern

6(34)Big Occasion (IRE) (Blinkers)David Pipe

9st 3lb Joseph O'Brien

7(24)Keys (IRE) (Blinkers)Roger Charlton

9st 2lb Richard Hughes

8(32)Dayia (IRE)Lydia Pearce

9st 1lb Olivier Peslier

9(6)Colour Vision (FR)Mark Johnston

9st 1lb (4lb ex)Neil Callan

10(35)Kazbow (IRE)Luca Cumani

9st 0lb Kieren Fallon

11(18)Dazinski Mark H. Tompkins

8st 13lb Jimmy Quinn

12(2) Ermyn Lodge (Visor)Pat Phelan

8st 12lb Ian Mongan

13(26)Ashbrittle (Visor)Ralph Beckett

8st 12lb Jim Crowley

14(10)Buy Back Bob (IRE)A. J. Martin, Ireland

8st 12lbW. M. Lordan

15(36) Never Can Tell (IRE)Jamie Osborne

8st 11lb (4lb ex)Frankie Dettori

16(7)Becausewecan (USA)Mark Johnston

8st 11lb (7lb ex)Joe Fanning

17(13)My Arch Ollie Pears

8st 10lb Tom Queally

18(14)La Estrella (USA)Don Cantillon

8st 10lb Dane O'Neill

19(31)Phoenix Flight (IRE)James Evans

8st 10lb Chris Catlin

20(33)Cosimo de Medici (Tongue Strap)Hughie Morrison

8st 10lb (4lb ex)

Robert Havlin

21(25)Bowdler's Magic Mark Johnston

8st 10lb (4lb ex)Phillip Makin

22(29)Rainforest Magic (IRE) (Blinkers)D. K. Weld, Ireland

8st 9lb Pat Smullen

23(28)Braveheart Move (IRE) Geoffrey Harker

8st 9lb Robert Winston

24(17)Tuscan Gold Sir Mark Prescott Bt

8st 8lb Seb Sanders

25(23)Regal Park (IRE)Marco Botti

8st 8lb Darryll Holland

26(30)Gifted Leader (USA) (Visor)Ian Williams
8st 8lb Ryan Clark (3)

27(11)Palomar (USA)B.Ellison

8st 7lb Tom Eaves

28(27)Right Stuff (FR)Gary Moore

8st 6lb Liam Keniry

29(3)Beyond (IRE)David Pipe

8st 6lb William Buick

30(5)Red Anthem (Sheepskin C/P)Gerard Butler

8st 6lb Liam Jones

31(20)L Frank Baum (IRE)Gay Kelleway

8st 6lb (4lb ex)Declan Cannon (3)

32(21)Abergavenny Brian Ellison

8st 5lb Paul Pickard (3)

33(4)Bow To No One (IRE) Alan Jarvis
8st 5lb (4lb ex)Martin Lane

34(19)Tasheba (Blinkers)David Pipe

8st 4lb Kieran O'Neill (3)




Reserves

R35(16)Trovare (USA)Amanda Perrett

8st 3lb Harry Bentley (3)

R36(15)Valid Reason Dean Ivory

8st 2lb
Report Facts October 6, 2011 11:43 AM BST
Repeat - info. on RP site!
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 6, 2011 9:53 PM BST
David Pipe follows his father's lead in targetting the Cesarewitch


HOTSPUR (J A McGrath) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/


Like father, like son. Just as Martin Pipe enjoyed doing in his time, David is gearing up for the launch of the jumps season proper by having a crack at winning the Betfred Cesarewitch on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile.

Martin liked nothing better than going for a 'touch’ against the major Flat stables and landed this end-of-season marathon with Heros Fatal in 2000 and Miss Fara in 2002.
On Saturday a maximum 34-strong field, headed by the David Wachman-trained Mount Athos, will line up and David is responsible for three of them.
The highly-regarded Big Occasion, a decent ride for Joseph O’Brien, Tasheba, the mount of Kieren O’Niell after having scraped into the field on bottom weight and, more intriguingly, the well-plotted Beyond, who will be partnered by William Buick
Significantly, Victor Chandler on Thursday reported backing for Beyond, who has been very lightly-raced. The four year-old joined Pipe after stints with Jeremy Noseda on the Flat and Evan Williams over jumps.
He won a Sandown Park handicap on his first Flat run for Pipe 14 weeks ago and has not been seen since.


Pipe admits the absence is because he wanted to keep the Handicap mark of 84 – an increase of 6lb for Sandown – to aim at the Cesarewitch. Beyond is owned by Robin Geffen, founder of Cheltenham sponsors Neptune Investments, who is better known on the Flat as the joint-owner of St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos.

Beyond shares favouritism at 10-1 with the Nicky Henderson-trained Veiled, who is well-fancied by his yard.

Henderson is another jumps trainer that enjoys a tilt at this rich prize and has also won the Cesarewitch twice with Landing Light (2003) and Caracciola (2008). Royal Ascot winner Veiled will be ridden by Eddie Ahern.

Trainer John Oxx has revealed that he will supplement Saddler’s Rock, the Doncaster Cup winner, for the two-mile QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup on Oct 15, provided the horse comes out of his last major gallop in good order.

The fee to be added to the field as a late entry is £18,000
Report Firstnamewinnerlastname October 6, 2011 11:00 PM BST
Come on gifted leader! cant really justify my choice, had a tenner on at odds between 200 and 140 one here.

Good luck all, think we'll all need it in this field! [;)]
Report sintonian October 7, 2011 9:20 AM BST
I see they have decided to run Bow For No One despite the poor run last time out at Ascot where she never landed a blow. She was a staying on 4th over 21f at Goodwood earlier in the season and with a handy draw she might go Okay. I got a fiver matched at 280 prior to Ascot last week and now Ocenas Minstrell is a non-runner Martin Lane keeps the ride whos overall record on the horse is 4 wins from 5 rides, fwiw.
Report sintonian October 7, 2011 9:26 AM BST
Will have a few quid eachway also at the 33/1. The form of the Goodwood run has worked out quite well.
Report worcesterwilly October 7, 2011 11:13 AM BST
Ermyn Lodge and Becausewecan for me....each way
Report Facts October 7, 2011 12:12 PM BST
As my AP selection  Cosimo De Medici appears to have a poor draw(?). I'll have a saver on one from the other side - Beyond.
Report bazzar October 7, 2011 12:29 PM BST
Why should the draw affect a horses chances, they'll be claiming the draw is against winning the Grand National, next?
Report Madhu October 7, 2011 1:08 PM BST
I just read that there has only been three winners from the top half of the draw- middle to wide since 1993, so certainly a stat to take notice of but this year with so many fancied runners drawn in that half who knows this could be the year to throw the stats out of the window. I have 8 left that I have backed at long odds out of 10 original wagers

Bowdlers Magic    
Bow To No One    
Gifted Leader    
Kazbow    
My Arch
Mystery Star
Never Can Tell
Regal Park

Gifted Leader would be my biggest winner-

Stevie Thunder's gallant 2nd in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday. Drawn on the wrong side of the track he still managed a career best effort to finish 2nd in one of the biggest handicaps of the year. We can now look forward to the other big Autumn handicap, The Cesarewitch (8th October), where we hope for a bold showing from Gifted Leader. Ian Williams

That gives me hope.
Good luck to everyone
Report 1st time poster October 7, 2011 7:52 PM BST
my arch 50,s pp for me
Report seaside dreamer October 7, 2011 8:43 PM BST
three against the field phoenix flight 200s
sentry duty 24s
and beyond 17s.
VERY HAPPY WITH MINE!
Report Rod Tidwell October 7, 2011 9:00 PM BST
Cannot understand the price of Phoenix Flight in relation to Veiled on their Ascot run. Trip and strongly run race would appear what it wants and I can't rule out on draw basis after King Revo appeared to have this this race sewn up a few years ago from 36 until Sergeant Cecil motored him down close home.
Bow To No One also a tad overpriced on Goodwood run I think and the Martin Lane stat that sint already mentioned.
Good luck all
Report town moor October 7, 2011 9:43 PM BST
Five win only darts for me: Tuscan gold, Rainforest magic, Kazbow, Braveheart Move and Pheonix flight.
Report rogerthebutler October 7, 2011 10:52 PM BST
Ashbrittle to place, with the visor re-applied for the first time since it's last win
Report Far From Trouble October 7, 2011 11:19 PM BST
One singular dart - Braveheart Move Cool
Report bazzar October 8, 2011 8:24 AM BST
COLOUR VISION, why pick up a penalty when the horse was already certainly in the race, not only that but he is now 25 lb worse off with NEVER CAN TELL for a 4 and a 1/2 length beating of that horse.
Report red and white October 8, 2011 9:04 AM BST
Great betting race, wide open. Keys battled well up the Cheltenham hill and should cope with the trip. Decent price due to high draw.
Report Facts October 8, 2011 10:49 AM BST
Certainly wide open.

20 individual horses tipped up on here(from 33 runners)Happy
Report red and white October 8, 2011 11:48 AM BST
Maybe there's some value in the other 13 ;)
Report Ilnamar October 8, 2011 2:25 PM BST
My uncle (god rest his soul) owned Tom Sharpe, won this in 1984 at 40-1.  Unfortunately I was only 13 and therefore did not have a bet on it :(

Rainforest Magic or Comso de Medici for me.

Good luck all.
Report jair1970 October 8, 2011 2:28 PM BST
Veiled or Ashbrittle for me.

Had the former in mind since day one and the latter might well have been waiting for this day. (like the rest aren'tLaugh)
Report bazzar October 8, 2011 2:49 PM BST
I think TOM SHARPE made all, didn't he ILNAMAR?
Report Ilnamar October 8, 2011 3:00 PM BST
I believe so.  He was ridden by an apprentice (I think) off an absolute featherweight, bolted off and they never caught him.  My uncle was on holiday in France and didnt think he would get in the race so not only missed the win but only had - for him - a very small bet on it as well.
Report bazzar October 8, 2011 3:05 PM BST
The author of that name has written some very funny stories, especially his character WILT.
Report Madhu October 8, 2011 4:02 PM BST
Ride of the season
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 8, 2011 4:09 PM BST
Anaglogs Daughter Joined: 05 Jan 10
Replies: 12456 03 Oct 11 19:22

Jamie Osborne twitter
'I can confirm that L Dettori will ride Never Can Tell for Dr Marwan Koukash in Saturdays Cesarewitch'.

He was 25s that day i thought he'd shorten after i posted it because he was 25 to back 26 to lay on betfair after been 36 earlier in the day. Never shortened.
Report 1st time poster October 8, 2011 5:50 PM BST
WELL DONE MADHU,YOUR LAREGE NET MANAGES TO BAG THE WINNER
Report Madhu October 8, 2011 10:50 PM BST
Thanks 1st time poster

Looking forward to November Handicap
Report bazzar October 9, 2011 10:07 AM BST
Very much a different ride to what DETTORI has been doing most of this season, witness ALL of BLUE BUNTING'S rides many of his group race rides, where the horse has got him out of trouble,REWILDING, LYRIC OF LIGHT and others.
He rides in the LONGEST handicap during the season and makes more than 3/4 of the running, if he applied as much thought before hand, then BLUE BUNTING would have been unbeaten this season, it seems that he is never criticised by his employer and is allowed to do his own thing, personally he has become unreliable and I cannot back him with ANY confidence.
Report Facts October 9, 2011 12:11 PM BST
You know as well as I do bazzar, the 'type' of ride a horse receives depends on what suits the horse. You wouldn't make the running on a hold up horse and you wouldn't disappoint one up who likes making it.
Report bazzar October 9, 2011 1:29 PM BST
Facts, from being an indepedent thinker he has fallen into the role of following the pack, namely giving his horse/s TOO much to do, FALLON never changed the tactics when he rode PRESVIS and came when the race was over, just like MOORE does EVERY time he rides the horse, DETTORI did exactly that on DABIRSIM , but yet again the horse got him out of trouble, why did he not learn from the lambasting he got for holding up SWAIN in BC CLASSIC all those years ago?
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