Horse Antepost

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The Headmaster
20 Jul 11 11:42
Date Joined: 14 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 3,863 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
Admiral of The Red (IRE)
Aloeil (FR)           
Apache (IRE)           
Brown Panther         
Buthelezi (USA)       
Casamento (IRE)       
Census (IRE)           
Dordogne (IRE)         
Eternal Heart (IRE)   
Fiorente (IRE)
Freedom (IRE)         
French Navy           
Genius Beast (USA)     
Laatafreet (IRE)       
Lyric Street (IRE)     
Marksmanship (IRE)     
Masked Marvel         
Memphis Tennessee (IRE)
Monte Carlo (IRE)     
Namibian (IRE)
Nathaniel (IRE)     
Regent Street (IRE)
Sadler's Risk (IRE)
Sea Moon           
Seville (GER)       
Solar Sky           
Thimaar (USA)       
Treasure Beach
Well Sharp             
Whiplash Willie       
Blue Bunting (USA)     
Wild Coco (GER)       
Wonder of Wonders (USA)
Zain Al Boldan

Fire away......
Pause Switch to Standard View The St Leger (G1)
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Report Win only - Sp only September 4, 2011 11:41 PM BST
If sea moon gets beat I will eat Rowley Mile's handbag. But hardly a tasty price (or bag)
Report Rowley Mile September 4, 2011 11:53 PM BST
Sorry for putting up the coincidence stat but it's something that interests me for other reasons than picking future classic winners and i was looking for any opinions. I do try and study the transfer of horses from different surfaces. I'm not sure where the handbag came from tbf ...
Report Rowley Mile September 4, 2011 11:54 PM BST
horses form from ***
Report unclepuncle September 5, 2011 7:34 AM BST
Having said Blue Bunting is a maximu lay I have one small caveat.

Looking at the Countryfile weather forecast it is a wet and windy week forecast - though Doncaster may actually be in the area that gets least rain.

If it also rains on Saturday and the ground gets genuinely very soft then form and ability can go out of the window a bit, in that case Blue Bunting may actually have a squeak as one thing she is is tough.
Report rhinestone September 5, 2011 7:56 AM BST
Not sure why your so against her unc Confused or is it just the price mate?

She's done nothing wrong and will improve for the trip, goes on any ground, hard as nails. Tough against the colts I know, and had a long season but her +'s outweigh the -'s for me ...
Report liberator of the oppressed September 5, 2011 8:53 AM BST
Bootiful if overcast day and looks like it is going to whizz it down shortly. Don't know how much rain actually fell in Doncaster yesterday but as I came past Ferrybridge on the A1M it was torrential and so bad traffic was actually slowing with wipers on full. TM gives terrific going stuff and updates if I remember correctly on Clerkwatch. Like rhinestone I think this might well become one long slog and the best stayer will win rather than class and whilst I have had a good go on Bunting I think Census is looking more and more like a place only bet to nothing. If it gets bad and turned over might connections pull something out. Sheikh Mo's lot look like they will be supplementing Rumh and that will hopefully ensure a very good even pace which will see off the non - stayers no doubt. Hope it is a spectacle and doesn't end up looking like at the end of a 4 miler round Sedgefield.
Report cruise d September 5, 2011 9:02 AM BST
Bad news Sint. From RP:-

One who will not run is Investec Oaks second Wonder Of Wonders, who had been as short as 20-1. O'Brien added: "Wonder Of Wonders is in the Ladbrokes St Leger but is unlikely to run. We're thinking of dropping her down in trip and she could go for the Prix de l'Opera."

Only chance of a run now would be if something happens to Seville I guess. Shame, I can't see Seville doing any better against Sea Moon for the extra distance personally.
Report unclepuncle September 5, 2011 9:59 AM BST
05 Sep 11 07:56

Not sure why your so against her unc Confused or is it just the price mate?

She's done nothing wrong and will improve for the trip, goes on any ground, hard as nails. Tough against the colts I know, and had a long season but her +'s outweigh the -'s for me ...

I agree with much of what you say but I just feel the form of the 3 year old fillies (English and Irish at least) is very weak, and while most of the colts aren't exactly vintage quality either (eg. Brown Panther and Census being 0-90 handicappers a couple of runs ago) I'll be very disappointed if there isn't at least one who can beat her.

I made Genius Beast my 'dark horse to follow' in the thread at the start of the season so maybe if it becomes really testing I'll give him another chance as massive odds.
Report The Headmaster September 5, 2011 10:47 AM BST
Genius Beast will almost certainly outrun his odds, I'd say, Uncle Puncle.  Although I doubt the 66/1 will last until Saturday.
Report The Headmaster September 5, 2011 1:04 PM BST
After confirmations:

Brown Panther     
Buthelezi (USA)   
Census (IRE)     
Freedom (IRE)     
Genius Beast (USA)
Masked Marvel     
Sea Moon         
Seville (GER)     
Blue Bunting (USA)
Rumh (GER)
Wonder of Wonders (USA)
Report liberator of the oppressed September 5, 2011 1:27 PM BST
It's really whizzed it down over the last 20 mins and still dribbling. Be interesting what the CoC predicts. I'd say it's on the slow side of good. If this continues strong possibility will become a bit of a bog and wellie time. Forecast isn't promising. All in the Bunting.
Report town moor September 5, 2011 2:33 PM BST
town moor

05 Sep 11 12:22

30 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 423 | Blogger: town moor's blog

Just back from the track at Donny. The grass has been trimmed to ankle height and it's being rolled at the moment. The surface is much improved over the last few weeks and there is a good covering of grass. I'd say the going at the moment is just on the fast side of good.
We're forecast for wet and windy weather over the next few days. There has only been 1mm of rain in my bucket over the weekend, and the clerk says he has no plans to water. I'd guess he'll be quite happy with a bit of rain over the next few days and unless we get an unexpected deluge we certainly won't have soft ground for the Leger.

Copied across from clerkwatch. as stated above it's pissed down since! I'll check the bucket later and walk the course again tomorrow. Bright and breezy again now.
Report sintonian September 5, 2011 3:45 PM BST
Yep WOW wont run. I thought that might be the case but speculated a few quid just in case. I thought it might be an option for her as she does not look good enough over 1m4f.
Report sintonian September 5, 2011 3:48 PM BST
re Seville, Cruise D, do you think he underpeformed on the ground ? Originally I thought he just ran flat and was not good enough, and before the race I thought he had no excuses to be beaten, but so many horses ran poorly during Ebor week and we are already seeing evidence of horses coming out and winning next time. Shumoos was beaten 10 lengths in the Lowther but won at Kempton over the weekend.
Report cruise d September 5, 2011 4:52 PM BST
I do believe that Seville ran below par and the ground could easily have been the reason. I'm just not covinced by the horse, I think he is a visually impressive but I just can't pinpoint what his ideal trip is. When he got beat by Carlton House I thought he looked an out and out mile and a half horse but then 3 times since (putting a line through Epsom) he has got there at the business and found at least one go past him. He could be one of those tripless nearly horses, I just haven't seen enough to think the extra 2f would have made him win any of the last three races he contested over 1m4f. I know it probably flies in the face of what everyone else thinks but I might be more inclined to back him over 10f than 1m6 myself.
Report The Headmaster September 5, 2011 6:06 PM BST
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute was today hopeful that Sea Moon, an eight-length winner of last month’s Group Two Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, could put up a bold show in Saturday’s Group One Ladbrokes St Leger at Doncaster.

Khalid Abdulla’s home-bred is 11/8 favourite with sponsor Ladbrokes for the final Classic, worth £540,050 and staged at 3.10pm on Saturday, after today’s five-day confirmation stage, in which 10 entries remained and Godolphin’s Rumh was supplemented at a cost of £45,000.

Sea Moon, whose dam Eva Luna won the Group Two Park Hill Stakes over the Ladbrokes St Leger trip at Doncaster, had won a handicap at York in July on his only other outing this season.

Speaking at the Ladbrokes St Leger Lunch at London’s Landmark Hotel today, Stoute said: “Sea Moon is a horse that we’ve always enjoyed and rated and we went to York hopeful for the Great Voltigeur Stakes but didn’t expect him to win in the manner that he did.

“He had won a York handicap off a mark of 92 on his previous start and had progressed very nicely in his preparation for the Voltigeur, which he needed to do. He’d gone forward, but we weren’t expecting him to do what he did.

“He loved the conditions at York, it was a bit moist and dead, and we’d love the same ground at Doncaster although we are not guaranteed to get that.

“The vibes are good with him but it’s the most competitive Ladbrokes St Leger we’ve had for many years. He’s got a proper Leger pedigree, his three-parts brother (Brian Boru) won the race so you’d be hopeful that stamina wouldn’t be a problem.”

Godolphin’s colours have been carried to victory in the Ladbrokes St Leger five times since 1995 and the owner’s Blue Bunting is set to bid for a rare Classic treble on Saturday, having already won the QIPCO 1,000 Guineas and Irish Oaks this season. She heads to Doncaster on the back on another Group One success, in the Yorkshire Oaks at York.

Godolphin will also be represented by supplementary Rumh and Genius Beast.

Simon Crisford, Godolphin’s racing manager, said: “Rumh was supplemented this morning and will act as a pacemaker.

"We have not decided on jockeys yet for her and Genius Beast, who is an interesting horse. He does need to improve 6lb-8lb to get into the mix. His dam, Shawanda, was very special and won the Irish Oaks.

"Genius Beast is a nice horse, a Group Three winner who we do think will stay quite well. He definitely deserves to take his chance and will give a good account of himself.

"Ever since Blue Bunting was competitive as a two-year-old, when winning a Listed race at Newmarket very well, we knew she was a very good filly. She had a small flake taken out of an ankle after that which was why she stayed in Newmarket over the winter. Leading up to the Guineas, we felt then that a longer trip than a mile would suit her much better but she was brilliant that day on fast ground.

"That sent us straight to Epsom and she has done nothing but please us through this whole campaign. She is super tough and very resolute - she gives everything she has though she wins her races by a narrow margin. She has been such a revelation because she is quite an odd filly to look at - she is not a supermodel on the catwalk but very correct. Half her tail was eaten away by her siblings when she was a yearling. So she is not a queen to look at but absolutely she is a queen on the racetrack.

"She is similar to Kazzia but her constitution is better. Blue Bunting has held on to her condition throughout a tough and busy campaign.

"Looking at her now, she is as robust and healthy as she was back in May which is why she is going for the Ladbrokes St Leger. We thought we must let her take her chance against the colts while she was in such great form.

"Obviously, her sex allowance will be incredibly important and hopefully will give her every chance of beating the colts.

"Her work is always very straightforward - she works on her own and she is reasonably lazy - she just does what she wants to do.

"When she worked on Saturday, Sheikh Mohammed watched her and he was pleased to see that she was just her usual self. Sheikh Mohammed has been lucky in the St Leger, winning the race many times.

"As long as she seems to be enjoying her racing and training, there is every chance Blue Bunting will stay in training.

"The Ladbrokes St Leger is the oldest Classic in the world and a fantastic race - you have to have a very good horse to win it."

Actress Liz Hurley is among the Highclere Thoroughbred Racing ownership syndicate who will be cheering on the Richard Hannon-trained Census, winner of the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month.

Hannon commented: “He’s a pretty good horse, he’s worked his way through the ranks and deserves to take his chance. He’s a fine, big horse who works well and we took him to Salisbury the other day for a gallop when he worked very well over a mile.

“He came to hand at the backend of last season and has just got better and better, he’s not been out of the first two on his last six starts. As long as the ground is good he’ll be fine and if it’s softer it won’t hamper him.

“We’ve had a few stayers over the years and the last horse we had for the Leger was Assessor (sixth in 1992) and he went on to earn a fortune. Census would be the same type of horse but with a little more speed. He’d going to be a really nice Cup horse over two or two and a half miles in the future as he’s getting a mile and six at three.”

Aidan O’Brien has won the Ladbrokes St Leger three times before (2001 Milan, 2003 Brian Boru and 2005 Scorpion) and this year he has three remaining entries in Freedom, the filly Wonder Of Wonders and Seville.

But although he still has to finalise plans, it is currently likely that Irish Derby runner-up Seville, who finished third in the Great Voltigeur Stakes on his most recent start, could be his only runner.

Speaking by telephone, O’Brien told the lunch: “Seville is our most likely runner. The filly (Wonder Of Wonders) ran a good race at York but wants better ground than she experienced there and at the Curragh (when a close third to Blue Bunting in the Irish Oaks) and has the option of dropping back to a mile and a quarter at Longchamp. She takes a lot of work and has been in good form since York but it’s only a possibility that she could run at Doncaster.

“It’s by no means certain that she or Freedom would run. With Freedom we were seeing what way the race was made up and if it looked like there was going to be much pace he could have made a nice pace for everyone. But it looks like there will be plenty of pace in which case he might not go.

“Seville ran very well in the Dante at York in May but then was slowly away and got a long way back at Epsom. He then found it strange going down the hill and it all may have happened a bit too quick for him that day.

“He worked well after that and then ran a good race at the Curragh, he then had a tough race in the Grand Prix de Paris but came out of it well.

“We always had one eye on the St Leger after that and wanted to slot in one race beforehand.  We were very easy on him before York and we thought if we were thinking of the Leger then we could lean on him a bit more. He ran well at York, he might have disappointed some people but the pace was a bit in and out and we were always looking towards the Leger.”

Footballer Michael Owen saw his home-bred Brown Panther win the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and the colt was reported to be in great shape ahead of Saturday’s race by trainer Tom Dascombe.

Kieren Fallon, bidding for his first Ladbrokes St Leger success, is set to take over the ride from Dascombe’s stable jockey Richard Kingscote.

Dascombe said: “On the whole he ran a fine race when he was second in the German Derby, it was a big step up from winning a handicap to running in a Group One. The ground was softer than we’d anticipated and he had a good draw, the plan was to drop him in and unfortunately we ended up in front.

“The form has worked out and he had a hard race that day. We gave him a rest, then he ran a nice race behind Census at Newbury and if we are still improving then we’ve got a solid chance at Doncaster.

“In April he got beat in handicap off a mark of 73 which was fantastic training performance given he’s now rated 115! He’s gone up in the handicap after every run so you’ve got to say he’s still improving. Good ground would be perfect for him at Doncaster, just not extremes.”

Explaining the jockey change, Dascombe said: “I’ve spoken to Michael (Owen) at length and it was a very tough, hard decision but it was decided on this occasion to go with a more experienced jockey. Obviously I’ve thought about it an awful lot and it was not easy but the decision we’ve come to was to use Kieren Fallon.

“Richard (Kingscote) has always done a very good job for me but you don’t get too many chances to win a Classic and I felt that it was a decision I had to make and time will tell. It hasn’t been easy.”

John Gosden has sent out three Ladbrokes St Leger winners (1996 Shantou, 2007 Lucarno and 2010 Shantou) from his last four runners in the Classic and he relies on Masked Marvel and likely pacemaker Buthelezi to add to that excellent record this year.

Masked Marvel has not run since beating Census by a head in the Group Three Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket on July 7.

Gosden, successful in last year’s race with Arctic Cosmos, said: “The Ladbrokes St Leger is a great race, it’s run at a wonderful fair track and there are no hiding places. By the time they’ve run over a mile, six furlongs and 132 yards, usually the best horse has won.

“I get sent a lot of staying types of horse but the idea that a plodder can win this race is a myth. They have to have shown you a lot at two if they are going to be good enough and if they don’t have a turn of foot they will end up finishing mid-division or out the back.

“Masked Marvel kicked on a long way out in the Bahrain Trophy and beat Census. They are both really nice horses that deserve to be at Doncaster. The filly (Blue Bunting) is the only Group One winner in the race but it’s a proper Leger with some high-class horses in there.

“Our horse is training exceptionally well, he’s been freshened up for the race and will stay well.

“It’s looking like we might be over-run with pace but Buthelezi will bowl along, he’ll stay all day and it will be a pretty good pacemaker to be out in front.”
Report sintonian September 5, 2011 9:41 PM BST
"Ever since Blue Bunting was competitive as a two-year-old, when winning a Listed race at Newmarket very well, we knew she was a very good filly. She had a small flake taken out of an ankle after that which was why she stayed in Newmarket over the winter. Leading up to the Guineas, we felt then that a longer trip than a mile would suit her much better but she was brilliant that day on fast ground.

Interesting snippet there. I thought BB stayed in HQ over the winter by design, not accident. Food for thought re Discourse etc.

re Seville, it sounds like connections were not to disappointed with his run lto. But make of that what you will.
Report mr_sykes September 5, 2011 10:55 PM BST
wouldnt shock me if Seville topped off a reeasonable season by winning,Ladbrokes certainly not against him
Report Rowley Mile September 6, 2011 12:56 AM BST
Sint i remember vividly crisford saying on ruk after the guineas that she stayed at home for the winter due to a setback. I don't think they'll learn from even this fine example of why most of them should be left in england for the cold spell.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 6, 2011 6:11 AM BST
Rained (certainly sounded like) continually throughout the night and would think are a good few mm in TM's bucket (sure he'll give a more concise update). Just let the hound out and doesn't look that bad. Breezy. Donnie has always been a good drainer (probably one of the best). Not long to go. It's exciting.
Report sintonian September 6, 2011 8:59 AM BST
Yes Rowley. When you compare how BB has done this season to some of their other 3yo's then it makes you wonder why they dont learn from it.

Maybe IF things goes badly next year with the likes of Gamilati/Discourse etc they may reconsider.
Report town moor September 6, 2011 9:35 AM BST
My weather station (bucket) shows only 3mm of rain in the last 24 hours. There is the odd spot of rain blowing about in the wind, but the gale force winds are keeping it away at the moment. I'll walk the track again later. Currently if it doesn't settle the wind may be a big factor as it's a westerly which means it's blowing right down the straight into the horses' faces. Hold up horses may be worth a second look tomorrow.
Report bluebirdfan September 6, 2011 9:46 AM BST
Can anyone explain Masked Marvels price in relation to Census's?? Looking at big e/ws on him and Seville now Wonder of Wonders won't be running
Report sintonian September 6, 2011 10:01 AM BST
I think it is to do with Census' impressive win lto. He travelled strongly and then stayed on strongly. He looks progressive,imo.

Masked Marvel beat him fair & square at Newmarket, but I personally thought Census didn't handle the track all that well.Other people disagree though and fancy MM at the prices.

Will MM handle soft ground if it pours down ?
Report johnnyrant September 6, 2011 10:24 AM BST
No discernible rain around this week at Donny looking at latest forecasts, and given this drying breeze, expect it will be good ground or quicker. I personally think Census stole the Newbury race under a canny Hughes ride. The eye-catcher there was Brown Panther. But quick ground would be against him, so this latest weather update makes me fancy Masked Marvel even more strongly.
Report apieceofcake September 6, 2011 11:10 AM BST
I personally think that Seville could bounce back to form and take this.

His last run was way to bad to be true, I would not be surprised if he had caught the virus that effected Await the Dawn around the same time. They both ran similar races, travelling well but finding absolutely nothing when asked to go and win their races.
The rest of his form makes him the one to beat imo.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 6, 2011 11:15 AM BST
Johhny .. it's just whizzed it down again. Bright at the mo and breezy.
Report cryoftruth September 6, 2011 12:48 PM BST
I still wonder about Seville. I always thought that with his pedigree, he would need a trip.

Trouble with him is that his overall form just looks a bit behind the others. His only win has been in a Tiperary minor event run in a bog, and his best run this year, behind Treasure beach in the Irish Derby, does leave him with a bit to find.

However he might well improve significantly for the step up in distance as I say.

I feel that this St Leger may be a real test of stamina, with Godolphin making it t test as they feel Blue Bunting will be suited by a real battle (they may be right too). 

Seville is not for me but i can see now how he could win it if I am right about his pedigree meaning he is a real strong stayer, maybe a Gold Cup horse in the making.
Report sisyphus September 6, 2011 3:43 PM BST
In Seville the old man Roberto Buthelezi reports that there could be a Masked Marvel or two. He says it’s no Wonder of Wonders that the Sea Moon brings a high tide and a wave of optimism forth, while the Genius Beast lurks at the back of the undergrowth in the form of a very large Brown Panther, all the time stalking his prey with Freedom as the Blue Bunting Whistles another God awful tune behind. The general Census should really have Rumh for optimism, for on each occasion Seville has had no pace to his race. Roberto says he will provide the pace once he has rumh up front and when his own tired legs begin to fold, and he glances over his shoulder expecting to see a Marvel like stable companion take over, that he would not be totally surprised to see that everything has fallen right for Seville. And that he has just simply provided the pace that Seville needed, to reinforce the stamina in his pedigree that allows him to go for home fully three furlongs out leaving all the other beasts needing a Gallileo telescope to observe him as they flounder on the straights of Doncaster. The Sea Moon can do no more than ebb as he surely bounces from the needlessly hard race given by his jockey in the Voltiger, the very jockey who intended to carry out the Census. Mr Buthelezi can’t understand why a jockey who is usually very adept at show boating and doing just enough; should whip and fully ride out a horse, whom to all and sunder had the race won as he liked.
Report solvingthepuzzle September 6, 2011 4:03 PM BST
sisyphus, a poet I am not but have you allowed for the fact that Blue Bunting has wings?
Report sintonian September 6, 2011 4:19 PM BST
AO: He came out if well, it was a tough race, but we always had one eye on the Leger after that. We just wanted to slot a race in somewhere between and the Voltigeur was the right one. He went to York but it was dead ground and he's a good-moving horse who likes to get a bit of kick from the surface. He disappointed a few people but I thought he ran well as a few things weren't in his favour and we decided he was going to the Leger.

What few things is AOB referring to iyo's ?
Report sisyphus September 6, 2011 4:22 PM BST
The Blue Bunting is mainly a songbird and its colours are that of the bright blue that Godolphin carry. If she plays the right tune she has more than a squeak, but against the boys I think she's too weak.
P.s.   C Moon has Wings too according to McCartney.
Report apieceofcake September 6, 2011 4:25 PM BST
God only knows sint, I'm sure we will find out after the race if he p1sses upLaugh
Report apieceofcake September 6, 2011 4:26 PM BST
I'm guessing from that quote that he never had him fit enough
Report sintonian September 6, 2011 4:38 PM BST
I suspect so too. Likes getting them fit on the track does Aidan. The horse had ran 34 days previously in France so you'd assume he should have been fit but you never know what they have done at home since.
Report sisyphus September 6, 2011 4:38 PM BST
There are many ways to train horses, and training in public is easy to get away with when you pretend to be trying a knew distance, then simply run off much too quick Like Cape Blanco did over a mile, thus ensuring a very good pace for Canford Cliffs (investment protection)to come off. Likewise others have been doing the same all year and this allows them to extend their season.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 7, 2011 8:58 AM BST
Is raining pretty heavily. Big heavy stuff. If you are coming watch the Rozzers in the vans down Bawtry Road and on Town Moor Avenue but PARTICULARLY at the top as you turn left when you go home adjacent to the school.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 7, 2011 9:00 AM BST
That should also have said (top of TM Avenue)after the lights (tis a 30).
Report sisyphus September 7, 2011 5:59 PM BST
Times are relatively fast, would suggest the ground is good.. Sea Moon wait for Arc..[;)]
Report sisyphus September 7, 2011 6:00 PM BST
Gallileo ground Grin
Report The Headmaster September 7, 2011 6:03 PM BST
66/1 Genius Beast under strong pressure.
Report tinkler September 7, 2011 6:28 PM BST
I'm a bit confused by your lengthy post, is it Post modernistic existential poetic verse or utter b0llocks?
Report Sterling Morrison September 8, 2011 11:02 AM BST
Sea Moon gotta be a lay
Report The Headmaster September 8, 2011 11:06 AM BST
Final declarations:

1 (2) Brown Panther          9  0       Kieren Fallon     
2 (6) Buthelezi (USA)        9  0 H     Robert Havlin     
3 (9) Census (IRE)           9  0       Richard Hughes   
4 (4) Genius Beast (USA)     9  0       Silvestre De Sousa
5 (3) Masked Marvel          9  0       William Buick     
6 (1) Sea Moon               9  0       Olivier Peslier   
7 (5) Seville (GER)          9  0       Joseph O'Brien   
8 (7) Blue Bunting (USA)     8 11       Frankie Dettori   
9 (8) Rumh (GER)             8 11       Richard Hills
Report Trusty September 8, 2011 11:16 AM BST
very quick as normal HM. Peslier has to be a strange jockey choice imo. 0/23 this year in the UK and only 3/20 last year. Considering he should be only coming over for strongly fancied mounts, the stats aren't good. See APOB has put the kid up as well; not sure that this is a good decision either but he is the only jock to have won on the horse....but then my gran wud have won that maiden on him.
Report sisyphus September 8, 2011 2:03 PM BST
Group 3 run to standard into a head wind...Sea Moon develops a cough and waits for the Arc
Report sisyphus September 8, 2011 2:32 PM BST
Joseph answers his critics with a decent Reply
Report sisyphus September 8, 2011 3:09 PM BST
Meeznah hates soft ground and she hosed up!!!!!
Report tinkler September 8, 2011 4:23 PM BST
If the ground is good to soft or softer the race looks straight forward to me on Good or faster it's anything but.
Sea Moon- put up an excellent performance in the Volt, having thought about I think he will reproduce with cut.
  The key I feel with this horse is cut in the ground, he travels great on that surface and would have too much
for these, with only Blue Bunting likely to offer resistence.On fast ground I'm unsure what he'll do.
Blue Bunting- Better horse with cut in the ground and has a good winning attitude. I have doubts that the trip
maynot be ideal.
Census,Masked MARVEL and Brown panther have closely linked form . With a decent amount of cut I could see Brown
panther running second to Sea Moon. On good or faster ground Masked Marvel is a interesting runner. At newmarket he quickened away from Census and he appears to have similaritites to Conduit and Sixties Icon.
Seville is the classic placer horse, odds to win 20/1 odds to come second 2/1 odds to come 3rd 7/2 looked
in great condition at York and if its good or faster here I'll be backing him to come second and a place bet, laying off the win part.
The times look quick at Doncaster and with the forcast looking dry it looks like all systems go with the Seville forcast and place bet.
Report Figgis September 8, 2011 4:56 PM BST
Why do you think Seville can only place? Apart from the Derby and last time, where he ran way below form, he has run pretty much the same every time. I have his best figures remarkably consistent and without finding improvement he ran how he was entitled to. I don't think he has ducked the issue at all, he's just been up against better horses, if he runs to his mark tomorrow he'll be difficult to beat.
Report Figgis September 8, 2011 4:57 PM BST
Actually if he runs to his mark tomorrow he'll have no chance, hopefully he'll run to it on Saturday Silly
Report sintonian September 8, 2011 4:58 PM BST
Meeznah ran so deplorably in the Geoffrey Freer it is hard to take that run literrallt but if she ran to form there you would have to say she would have been close to Census & Brown Panther.
Report tinkler September 8, 2011 6:37 PM BST
I've brought the Seville thread back to the top ,if you look at my posts from 27th may onwards and also
on the great Volt thread it will explain my thoery concerning Seville.
I've not changed my opinion of him
Report Figgis September 8, 2011 7:02 PM BST
Yes, I understand your point, I just don't see there has definitely been an occasion where he should've won but didn't.
Report sintonian September 8, 2011 8:55 PM BST
I tend to agree. He has just been beaten by better horses on the day, Carlton House, Treasue Beach and Meandre.
Report sintonian September 8, 2011 9:02 PM BST
Someone wants to lay Brown Panther for £250 at 17.5. Top bookie price is 10/1.
Report El Apache September 8, 2011 9:26 PM BST
Blue Bunting

Just cant see this filly being beaten.Proven G1 performer with right connections. How Sea Moon trades at 5/4 is beyond me.
Report solvingthepuzzle September 9, 2011 11:31 AM BST
With you all the way El Apache Proven class & Classic form struggling to understand the odds myself I've plenty on at 9/2 & keep thinking someone's going to arrest me for fraud!
Report solvingthepuzzle September 9, 2011 11:34 AM BST
Not to mention jockey bookings, sex allowance, course winner & going.
Report Platini September 9, 2011 1:34 PM BST
Fillies don't have a great record tho, do they?

I remember backing my all-time fav filly Diminuendo for this race

She cantered up alongsides the leaders at 2 out looking full of running
but in the end the brave filly was out-stayed by Minsters Son Cry
Report solvingthepuzzle September 9, 2011 2:05 PM BST
In full agreement Platini it would require a classy display from a classy filly. Diminuendo was beaten by a very good horse who himself was only beaten in the Derby. And may only have been beaten by the course that day. Blue Bunting impressed me in her 1st two wins being headed on both occasions but rallying back to win. She's tough as old boots has the right jockey & may just may be a lady who can do it.
Report sisyphus September 9, 2011 3:12 PM BST
With a 16mph southerly wind expected throughout the day tomorrow, the ground should ride even faster..
Report sisyphus September 9, 2011 3:16 PM BST
If Peslier rides Donny the way he rode Ascot in the Shergar cup, then Sea Moon aught to be a 5/1 shot....
Report sintonian September 9, 2011 3:50 PM BST
It will be Good to Firm by the start of racing tomorrow.
Report Trusty September 9, 2011 4:18 PM BST
Mike Dillon was interviewed on ATR about 30 minutes ago.

He mentioned all the top 5 in the betting bar Seville. Considering his connections with the stable that speaks volumes for me.
Report The Headmaster September 9, 2011 4:19 PM BST
From the Guardian's Chris Cook:

The oldest Classic is a little poorly. It struggles on, hoping no one will notice, but can no longer achieve things that used to be straightforward, like attracting Derby winners.

Age, in fact, is not the problem so much as irrelevance. The St Leger really doesn't feel like a race that matters in the way that a Classic should. If you're a committed fan of horse racing, prevented from watching the telly by some dreadful mischance this weekend, the main thing you'll miss will be the Arc trials on Sunday.

This is a sport that values its traditions more than most, but Racing For Change seems to have altered attitudes to the point where we are at least prepared to consider doing things differently. If the Leger's standing is to be revived, some kind of modification will surely be necessary.

But before we go tinkering with it, it might be a good idea to identify what exactly has gone wrong. Here's my list of problems facing the Doncaster race.

1) The bloodstock industry's disdain

This would be the main issue. Any owner of a horse who may one day be a commercial stallion is scared stiff to run him in the Leger for fear that he might actually win the thing, proving his bottomless reserves of, ugh, stamina.

The bloodstock injury is interested only in speed. Lightning sprinters, brilliant milers, these horses will have no gaps in their dance cards. Why on earth would you send your beautiful mare for a tryst with some beast who could go all the way around Newbury without running out of puff?

Winning the Derby is bad enough. There's enormous prestige and everyone is happy for you and you might make some money in your first three years at stud, before the offspring actually make it to the track. At that point, everyone realises that you are, in fact, going to be a sire of three-mile handicap chasers.

Winning the Leger is practically the same thing as gelding yourself. No one is going to be interested. Lucarno, the 2007 winner, was available for just £2,000 this year, Brian Boru (2003) for €2,500. It's as well these handsome animals don't realise their lowly status or they might lose the will to do their jobs.

The Leger has become a consolation prize for slow horses. If we want it to be relevant again, maybe we should lop off a couple of furlongs and make it a second Derby, taking place at a much fairer racecourse than Epsom.

2) It's a staying championship without any known stayers

One of the reasons we don't get more excited about the Leger is that the runners are fighting for a crown that none of them have previously worn or aspired to. Who's the best three-year-old over a mile and three-quarters? Um, well, I suppose we'll find out on Saturday. It's just not something you think about until the second Saturday in September.

After the race, we'll know that this one stayed, while that one didn't. It will probably not feel like a great surprise because there was no way to be sure in the first place.

There are horses out there with established reputations over this sort of distance. They are four or older and have built up rivalries with each other in races like the Sagaro, the Henry II, the Yorkshire Cup, the Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup.

If you don't approve of shortening the Leger, maybe we could make it more interesting by opening it up to these older horses that people have actually heard of and care about. Followers of the sport feel a fondness for these plodders that is often out of all proportion to their ability. Persian Punch and Yeats both have their own statues, for crying out loud.

High Chaparral, born two years before Yeats, won more than twice as much prize money and became the first horse to win two runnings of the Breeders' Cup Turf. Where's his statue? Ah, but he wasn't a dreadfully slow two-miler.

Opening up the Leger to these popular snails would certainly help with the race's profile, though it would also open up a competition with the Irish St Leger, which has been open to older horses since 1983. It would also mean the end of the Doncaster Cup, designed for those same older horses, but perhaps the Leger might meld with the Doncaster Cup to create something better than either.

3) Remember all those great Leger winners?

Horse races don't last very long and a large part of the pleasure lies in the buildup. Racing UK know this, which is why they show so many replays of previous runnings in the days before a major race.

With almost any Group One, there is a healthy list of previous renewals that blew our socks off at the time. Such, I suggest, is not the case with the St Leger.

Conduit was a smashing horse who never got the credit he deserved, in my book. Classic Cliche was pretty good. We all liked User Friendly.

But otherwise the list is pretty bland, full of Scorpions and Nedawis and Toulons. The days of Oh So Sharp and Reference Point, winners to make any race burst with pride, are a very long time ago. Nijinsky and Bustino won their Legers in a different world.

If you didn't care about the past 20 Legers, will you care about the next one?

4) Too many targets

The brilliance of the jumps season is that it all funnels towards the Cheltenham Festival, where the best horses in each discipline are thrown together. Such is not the case with the Flat season, which provides so many opportunities that it is a simple matter for the best horses to avoid each other. In this case, it also means there is no reason to target an unfashionable race unless there is really nothing else you can win.

If you have a good three-year-old who lacks the speed for a mile, you have options coming out of your ears at this time of year. If he's very good, you'll be thinking of the Arc, possibly stopping by the Niel on Sunday or Newbury's Arc Trial next weekend. You might also consider the Breeders' Cup Turf, or other races in Japan or Hong Kong later in the year.

Doncaster is easily avoided, which is why the Leger's fall from fashion is such a problem.

5) Can you bet on it?

The outcome of the Leger, it seems to me, is either tediously predictable (Milan, Scorpion, Sixties Icon) or completely mad (Mastery? Are you kidding?). Of course, even if that were a fair summation, it would still leave a contest interesting enough to attract lots of punters.

But it doesn't work for me, partly because the evidence as to whether each horse will stay the trip is so limited. Also, when I back a horse for a major race, I like to think that connections have had it as the target for some time, whereas the feeling with many of Saturday's runners is that they have ended up here. Even now, some of their owners would not be unhappy to learn that their horse does not stay a mile and six furlongs.

Are you depressed on the race's behalf? Resentful? Well, me too, because my instinct is that the sport's traditions should be preserved and celebrated.

But is it worth raising your voice in anger to defend this race? I put it to you that, if the St Leger did not exist, it would not be necessary to invent it and no one would think to do so.

We can try to soldier on with the Leger in its present form, if you insist, but I really think the time has come to try something different.

Personally, I think that's the biggest load of guff I've read in a long time. I could rip it to bits but don't really know where to start.... Cry
Report mythical prince September 9, 2011 6:59 PM BST
i'm starting to think this brown panther may have been underestimated. I think he's just a better horse than
census and the ascot race is more relevant for me than the newbury one. not sure about that newbury race- meeznah ran no sort of race yet came out and won the park hill easily.
Report solvingthepuzzle September 9, 2011 7:51 PM BST
As Platini said 'the colts have it' which I have to concede on historical evidence would appear to be the general case. Frankie did say today mind that they've put a front runner in there to ensure a steady pace. They must feel they have a serious chance which to my mind says the only threat is Sea Moon which fills me with hope as I'm not sure he has the form to justify his price. Good luck all.
Report El Apache September 9, 2011 7:53 PM BST
Blue Bunting

Reckon this will go off as a rightful favorite.
Report zilzal1 September 9, 2011 7:58 PM BST
The dreaded "Finish second to Sea Moon" and we'll refund your money concession is available!!
Report sintonian September 9, 2011 9:16 PM BST
Lol. Laugh

Undecided at this stage but can see money coming for Maked Marvel & BB in the morning at which point i'll step in and have a punt on Census. Im sure he'll lover every bit of the trip/track and pacemaker tomorrow and Richard Hannons horses going extremely well at the moment. Reckon 7/1 may become available as the money is arriving for the others.

Has price wise gone for Seville ?
Report Sharapour September 9, 2011 9:59 PM BST
Back Sea Moon to cover your stake on Betfair, but  back  Blue Bunting or Seville to win.....X
Report unclepuncle September 9, 2011 10:06 PM BST
Have to say I agree with a lot of that article. Tradition is great but while it's still a decent race to watch it ultimately has more influence on the National Hunt game than the flat.

Maybe it's time to go down the French route and have a 1m2f Derby and then make the Leger a 1m4f race - it's timing is also perfect as an Arc trial.
Report elisjohn September 9, 2011 10:19 PM BST
who was the last st leger winner to run in the arc, i recall user friendly , anyone since
Report zilzal1 September 9, 2011 10:24 PM BST
Conduit(a year later thoughSilly)
Report elisjohn September 9, 2011 10:28 PM BST
could oh so sharp have done the double
Report Sharapour September 9, 2011 10:55 PM BST
To elisjohn.....I don't know, but,reversedly , you probably already know about Nijinsky and then  Alleged :-)
Report zilzal1 September 9, 2011 10:56 PM BST
Nah imo, she had a hard season, was beaten against the colts too often as well(By Petoski and Rainbow at Ascot and Commanche at York)
Report EastLower Gooner September 10, 2011 1:29 AM BST
easy one for me...gotta take the classic form so Blue Bunting.
Report elisjohn September 10, 2011 7:53 AM BST
tell you why i mentioned oh so sharp, skipped clear of triptych in oaks on soft ground if i recall correctly, and had the stamina for 14 fur and wasnt that years arc won by rainbow run on soft ground, , i just wonder if she was better on that ground, fast ground the next season when she lost to the colts.anyhow sea moon nap today
Report Trusty September 10, 2011 8:59 AM BST
although Blue Bunting has the form in the book, I wonder how much Frankie's shocking ride last time will have taken out of her and with only 23 days since that run,will she have recovered? Place lay for me as a low risk strategy on the basis that Frankie will ease up (as always) if she can't win at 1.71 it won't break the bank.
Report cruise d September 10, 2011 9:25 AM BST
That race last time would put me off backing BB so soon. At the odds I think I'm gonna back Sea Moon, looks a great price IMO. Quite fancy Brown Panther ew as well I think he was given too much today against Census last time and personally I think BP is still the better horse.
Report town moor September 10, 2011 9:50 AM BST
Chris **** is just engaging in the annual slag the leger exercise. I remember reading all the same guff when I first got interested in racing 30 years ago. Personally I think one of racing's big problems is the negative attitude of the press, who would rather slag races than promote them. The breeding argument to me is nonsense, there is nothing to stop any horse dropping back in trip after running in the leger, and three of the biggest breeding operations in the world run horses today in the leger. I do think the race could be brought forward a week or so to allow more recovery time for later targets- but of course the voltigeur would have to move too.
We've had reduced crowds here all week I'd guess due to the recession rather than the racing, but today I think racegoers will turn out in their numbers and just about fill the place. There's nothing wrong with making improvements, but racing will be in trouble when it begins tearing up 235 years of history.
Report Graeme83 September 10, 2011 1:33 PM BST
1. Sea moon
2. Census
3. Seville
4. Blue Bunting
5. Brown Panther
6. Masked marvel
Report cruise d September 10, 2011 1:36 PM BST
1. Sea Moon
2. Brown Panther
3. Blue Bunting
4. Seville
5. Census
6. Genius Beast
Report zilzal1 September 10, 2011 1:39 PM BST
1. Masked Marvel
2. Seville
3. Census
Report zilzal1 September 10, 2011 1:39 PM BST
1. Masked Marvel
2. Seville
3. Census
Report unclepuncle September 10, 2011 1:45 PM BST
No longer fancy laying Blue Bunting as I just don't fancy anything else in the race.

Sea Moon may be different class but on the ground, and at the price, I can't back him, Seville has every chance on his Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris form, but is too unreliable and might not fancy a battle, and the rest look Group 3 class at best.
Report Platini September 10, 2011 2:22 PM BST
Plumped for Seville e/w in the end.  GL all.
Report EastLower Gooner September 10, 2011 3:23 PM BST
tactics won that. fair play to gosden.
Report cruise d September 10, 2011 3:34 PM BST
I think the best horse won it as well. Looked a great performance to me. I just couldn't have it myself after the last run, I thought Census would improve past it and I didn't rate Census's chances but MM was very very good there. Pleased that Brown Panther ran his race and in ordinary year would have won a leger imo.
Report sintonian September 10, 2011 4:24 PM BST
well done zilzal,trusty,johnnyrant and anyone else who made money from the race.
Report town moor September 10, 2011 6:07 PM BST
MM was the pick of the paddock, I ended up just sticking with my ante post bets so lost on the race. The fact that the track record was broken should not be ignored, when that headwind for the last 4f+ is taken into account. In the pre parade the consensus was that this was a vintage St Leger, and in retrospect I think we were spot on.
Report Pinza September 10, 2011 6:48 PM BST
The bloke who put this up on Racecallers forum was spot on with Sea Moon
Report mr_sykes September 11, 2011 8:51 PM BST
Great performance by MM,couldnt believe this horse was 10/1 last week,won well imo
Report sintonian September 12, 2011 9:01 AM BST
rekon Sea Moon was quite unlucky tbh. I wonder where next. If Soft in Paris they must be tempted.
Report Figgis September 12, 2011 9:06 AM BST
Don't you think Sea Moon had enough room around 2f out though, sint? I thought he was under pressure and going nowhere at that stage, thought he only ran past slowing horses at the finish.
Report sintonian September 12, 2011 9:16 AM BST
Yes but given the race was run at such a quick clip, when he needed to get out and run he got blocked in and lost momemtum whilst the other horses were still going forwards. Think this must have cost him at least 1-2 lengths imo.

Masked Marvel was very impressive though as My Sykes says.

Matt Chapman said something interesting on ATR yesterday. He basically said you can get two different opinions on Sea Moon's run, depending on what channel you watched it on. ATR footage made him look very unlucky, Channel 4 footage showed that he did not pick-up as quickly as you would have hoped and Peslier gave him several cracks of the whip.

I've only seen the ATR footage. Laugh[:D]
Report tinkler September 12, 2011 4:10 PM BST
Masked marvel showed a decisive turn of foot which the others couldn't handle and ran out a decisive winner.
I doubt the form amounts to much as most of the rest of the didn't like the fast conditions.
Brown Panther showed a great attitude despite disliking the ground. Sea Moon looked to have physically improved
since York and was in excellent condition. He showed a distinct lack of pace when needed. He looks a soft ground
animal and on anythingelse doesn't have enough pace. J o'brien wasn't strong enough to be able to restrain
Seville early and ended up chasing a vicious early pace giving the horse no chance of seeing the race out.
The horse needs strong handling now.
Don't know what happened to Blue Bunting and the excuse of her being in season isn't conclusive.
Report town moor September 12, 2011 5:39 PM BST
Looking at the race video it appears that even blue bunting beat the standard, not bad for horses that didn't like the fast conditions. I'd have thought the only reasons that this form would not stand up would be tha A) races are rarely run at a decent pace in Britain and B)races are usually run on overwatered ground.
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