the king george

His 3YO Form was a level above St Nicholas Abbey's.

Good 2nds to above average winners of The Guineas and Derby .

Though i still think he was a bit overated too

tobermory,
May well be a bizarre coincidence but Workforce is already part of the stat.
Forget about other King's Best progeny at Ascot.
This King's Best progeny has already raced badly @ Ascot.

Grendel,

Do you have any analysis on the distances the King's Best horses raced over?

Tobermory

Yeah I suppose Hawk Wing is debatable, imo he was a brilliant 2yo who didn't improve a tap as a 3yo. He didn't need to improve to finish second in a very ordinary Guineas (RoG improved afterwards), HC was a decent horse but that Derby was a poor race in reality, with everything else floundering on the ground. Hawk Wing eventually fulfilled his 2yo potential that day at Newbury, albeit only once.

Nathaniel

The key question is whether he is a Group 1 horse.Form with Treasure Beach suggests he is.His run at Royal Ascot endorsed this.

Me assertion is that given WFA at this stage of the season, 3 year olds have a signifcant advantage. This is exacerbated by horses in the case of Nathaniel have a preference for soft ground.

I did make the same case recently for Misty For Me against Midday.


I also feel there are big question marks against the opposition.

Workforce and Rewilding had very hard races last time out and their form shows they need a big break betwwen races. SNA has a lot to prove and jockey booking is not very smart.

Even at 7/1 Nathaniel represents cracking value.

Dunno what sorta distance stats you want Trent but regarding the KG c/d, King's Best progeny record in 23 races in all classes is 0 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third and 18 unplaced.

I will be backing Rewilding, I think the gap between races won't be such an issue as when he was a 3yo and neither SNA nor Nathaniel have posted anywhere near a figure capable of winning this, that's not to say they won't in future but rewilding has some huge speed figs from me and i prefer to stick to reproducing what they have done and not what they might do.

Just back from Donny, I had a chat with Al Zarooni's travelling head lad there, he said that he thinks rewilding has had plenty of time and looks ready, but did say he thought workforce would be difficult to beat.

Nathaniel

Think back 8 years ago to Alamshar who thrashed more illustrious older horses with the huge WFA.

Why do you think WFA is wrong ,perfectly fair IMO. Can't see why it would be considered 'huge' in that they have had 300 years to set the level correctly, how far out can they be with it?

Really only Falbrav of the older runners in 2003 was better than Workforce .Can't have  Nayef or Sulamani being better than him.

Also Alamshar had the best piece of form in that he had beaten Dalakhani (who would be about 8/15 to beat this years bunch).

Alamshar ran right up to what he was capable of and Falbrav was too bad to be true, so the best horse on the day won, and he had no particular advantage.

Nathaniel seems correctly priced to me, wouldn't put anyone off backing him , but the WFA does not favour him .The 3Y0s who have won this have all been top class . Judged on their whole careers they have been the equal of the older horse winners.

forgot to add , Nathaniel will therfore have to prove himself a top class horse to win this (run to high 120s) , which he hasn't done yet .But he seemed to run to about 122 last time without much exertion and , being lightly raced , has potential for improvement .If he wins then i will consider him as good as anything around at middle distance, rather than conclude he had an unfair advantage.

Nathaniel

Not only we he win , I think he will win by some distance.

Shove all ratings stuff where the sun doesnt shine.

Got to go by your instinct.

ok good luck

I like Rewilding but the gorund will be slow and not in his favour

I'm surprised that this Kings Best progeny coincidence is being given any credence.

Fascinating race this. I can't see the appeal at all with the 3 year old. Treasure Beach or Seville don't look top class to me but I doubt Nathaniel would have beaten them in the Derby, Irish Derby or Grand Prix de Paris. He's a throw out for me, as is Debussy who I assume is a pacemaker.

Shocked that Joseph is on St Nicholas Abbey and it'll probably put me off backing him, getting Roderick O'Conner home in the Irish Guineas doesn't make him the best available. That decision really disappoints me to be honest. I think he can win if he's wound up fully around the turn and gets to the front at the 3f marker, but probably a no bet race for me.

Tavaris,
I don't think 1/83 is a coincidence.
I would dismiss it as being irrelevant to Workforce except that Workforce has already run @ the track & ran badly.
It was by some distance his worst performance ever.
I don't know why he ran so badly.
Perhaps he had a hard race in the Derby.
If that's the case I'd be concerned by the hard race he had in the Eclipse.
Perhaps the field was too small,he couldn't get any cover & he ran too free.
His wins have been where there have been 12,12,19 & 8 runners.
His defeats have been in races with 5,6 & 5 runners.
Maybe he likes going past horses.
If that's the case I'd be concerned that there are only 5 runners in the race.

There are a lot of parallels with last years King George.

JO'B on SNA looks a significant negative. He's a horse who can pull and needs to be settled ,also he
needs very strong handling at the end to the get the  best out of him. Fallon would have been the perfect
rider for him.

On the subject of breeding, Rewilding is one of 6 horses with Topville as a damsire to contest class 1 races at Ascot as on older horse since 00 .... the other 5?, Yeats, Montjeu, Age Of Aquarius, Boreas and Turtle Bowl.  Between them 4 Gold Cups, a second in the Gold Cup by a neck, a King George on the bridle, a Prince of Wales stakes and a third in the Queen Anne at 33/1 from 9 runs.

The jockey doesn't worry me at all. SNA may have needed strong handling last time but the CC was a slowly run race, if it had been run at a truer pace I'm pretty confident he would've won more easily. Of course, we could get another slowly run affair, but if that happens any outcome would be possible. It could be that SNA's last 2 races have been a false dawn, otherwise I believe it will be an armchair ride, given a decent pace.

I wouldn't mind betting that this King's best stat is a result of data mining i.e. you don't set out with a hypothesis in mind , you just manipulate the data until you find something which seems unusual.

Why limit the analsis to c1 and 2 races for instance? What is the result for all the progeny at Ascot? And why should Sandown and Winsor, just a few miles away, sit at the top of the list? Is there a way that these horses somehow know that its Ascot and not Sandown or Windsor? And what about the courses where there have been no winners 0/34 added together (Haydock,Warwick, Lingfield etc) Do you draw the same conclusion?

The truth is that humans like to shape the world into patterns whether they exist or not. Its why you can see a pattern in a random walk which would show apparent rises and falls which look like definate cycles.

Remember - illusions don't just appear in the desert.

Totally agree with Sandown. Whether Workforce performs to his best on Saturday will be purely down to the form he's in on the day. Will he progress from that last run or will he regress? I think it's more likely he will regress to some extent.

If I had to pick a flat racecourse that was most like Sandown I'd pick Ascot.  And Sandown and Ascot are really nothing like Windsor. 

The fact Workforce ran a bad race in this race last year is an obvious worry, but that is counteredby the two very good runs at Sandown.  I seriously doubt the King's Best stat means anything.

I don't know why people are so keen to crab Rewilding and St Nicholas Abbey either. Neither has done much wrong this year

Nathaniel has run one really good race in his career and lots of merely decent ones.  On his last run, you would think he can win this, but on the rest you'd be putting him in at 33s.

The race looks a cracker this year, and I am really looking forward to it.

Nathaniel has only run one good race in his career has he? How about being beaten half a length by the wonderhorse or a head by the Irish Derby winner? Not bad surely?

my view is that work force will come on for that run, would write off the chances of nicholas abbey. my humble op

I did say on the 6th on July that there wasnt a lot of value in SNA'S price then.


Looking forward to a cracking race tomorrow

Nathaniel has only run one good race in his career has he? How about being beaten half a length by the wonderhorse or a head by the Irish Derby winner? Not bad surely?

Agreed, not bad, merely decent.

Getting beat by half a length a subsequent wonderhorse on his first visit to a racecourse isn't the same as getting beat by half a length by the same horse in the 2000 guineas.  Presumably Driving Snow would by a lock in here based on the way he put Sea The Stars in his place on his debut?   Treasure Beach also beat him more easily than the distance suggests, and that was running first time this season. 

And seriously, winning an Irish Derby by 3/4 length isn't much of a match for thrashing everything out of sight in the real Derby or winning an Arc, or even getting narrowly beat by So You Think?

On the King Edward the horse looked well capable of winning a group 1, hence the horse can clearly win this, but you have to be a bit more realistic on the rest of the form.

The size of the field is very disapponiting as it was in the coronation cup and Eclipse and this could
lead to another messy race as those 2 were. I would be amazed if debussy set a decent pace and the only
chance of a decent gallop is if Nathaniel makes the running. My guess is Debussy will set a very moderate
pace for 4f- 1m then nathaniel will take it up. Without Nathaniel in the field you could Guarantee they'll
go slow as Rewilding is the best 1 1/4m horse in the race and there would be no incentive to set a decent
pace.

could Guarantee they'll go slow as Rewilding is the best 1 1/4m horse in the race and there would be no incentive to set a decent
pace.

Think you'll find the situation is the exact opposite. Stable on record that RW needs strong pace and he is no good without one.

i would be loathe to back a horse at ascot who ran the only shocker of its career on previous visit

Think in most Scenarios here Rewilding will be the last to play his hand

He may need a fast gallop on fast ground over 1 1/4m. Over 1 1/2m on soft I don't see it , unless they think
he's a dour stayer. If thats the case what does that make SYT?

Ground looks to be drying very quickly looking at the times, the winner of the 10f race went around 4 seconds faster and more than Beachfire and Pisco Sour did at the Royal Meeting

Pity SYT isnt in this, would be a real cracker IMO.

Wish i had put some on workforce at around $10 a few weeks back!

I like rewilding at $4 right now though.

my opening post on here nathaniel intrests me at 100, well took the fancy prices available lots of bits annd pieces nets me arond 3000, i hoped workforce wouldnt run, but cant complain , i will lay though for a guaranteed profit,  good luck 2 great races coming up, cant wait for sussex though

Time done today over 10f was a good to firm time. Ascot have put punters away with their going description.
SNa and Rewilding will have no problem with the ground and Workforce has been overbet .

Warning though, there are heavy localised showers f/c, its whether they hit or not

2/1 available on wf tomorrow in my opinion, hills seem to go big on fav these days in big races on the day

it may be drying ground but aren't they expecting a couple of milimetres tonight ?

Hills going 7/4 WF in the morning.

Well looking forward to this tomorrow. Will be there so hope it remains dry throughout racing. I don't view drying ground as a negative for Workforce, he just didn't want a road. I think the drying ground means Nathaniel has even less chance of causing an upset. Rewilding the big danger for me, but I think SMS will have Workforce bang on this year and I expect him to win. My biggest concern would be a tactical slow run affair which given the field size is possible but hopefully between Debussy & Nathiniel this shouldn't happen. As lond as there is a proper race then with Good ground there are no excuses and the best horse should win

The best horse will win this.Fully expect SNA to outstay all his rivals.

"The best horse will win this"

Cant say the same for the jockey though IMO, thats where SNA is let down.

Nathaniel

D day has arrived - still confident . Even started backing him for the Arc.

7/2 about SNA  3.65 fyi.

4s with SJ, sint.

This dosnt look good for rewilding, very unfortunate.

Quite the upset all round, well picked teh Nathanial backers.

O'brien Jn fail..... as usual.

Workforce clearly hates Ascot.

O'Brien Jnr did nothing worng - the horse had no chance on the Coronation Cup form where he only beat Clowance a couple of lengths.

Rewilding beating SYT most likely took its toll, the horse gave everything that day and as we know Frankie whipped the hell out of him to get the result, Bad Karma to Frankie IMO, i feel very sorry for Rewilding though, hope hes alright.

Sad day Workforce obv hates the place


Interesting though the International was won in a time under standard, this place dries up very quickly

Not an enjoyable race for obvious reasons. No excuses for my bet, just not good enough. I don't agree that Workforce's drift cost him the race, the best horse on the day won. I said that I thought Nathaniel's latest win was good enough but my thoughts that he might not be one to trust were clearly rubbish. Well done backers.

The positive thing about Workforce is that he will be value in the arc, maybe its the short run in at Ascot and/or the small field that doesn't suit.

Well done Nathaniel supporters, I think this seasons top 3yo's are an exceptional crop.

yes first of all commiserations to Rewilding backers. Awful scenes.

Nathaniel easily the best horse today. SNA no excuses.

Elisjohn, you owe me a few beers mate. If you look at the Betfair Antepost Runners Request thread you'll see I got him added to the KG market. Several of us lumped on for the St Leger so when they said he wouldn;t run I need to cover my bets. I hope you took some of the Arc 33/1, too

This thread has been one of the better ones this season for debate.

Even better for making for making money sintonian

Rewilding will be remembered as the horse with the big heart who beat the Aussie super star So you Think, you dont get much better than that.

Agreed FM was gallant effort that day

thanks sint, i had a really nice book on the field, due to nathaniel, but the race in ireland with midday really made me think that the older horses werent that great

Confirms my assertion that a top class 3 yr old will generally beat older horses at this time of year given WFA.

Unknown unknowns  :Rewilding breaking down


Unknown knowns  : Pacemaker's bizarre tactics, WF's Ascot aversion resulting in unforeseable waywardness (Derby & Arc winner for goodness sake), SNA poor running,  10lb improvement from winner?

Known knowns : Much softer on round course

Conclusion: Totally unpredictable except that obviously some managed it. well done. Impossible race to price up, as I said.

Well done El Apache. I tried to ridicule your confidence in Nathanieland was proved way outta line.

Well done nathaniel believers, particularly the op who it sounds like has done very well. Poor rewilding was horrible to see right in front of the stands. Have just got back to our hotel had no stomach for the last race after that. Only seen the race live so need to rewatch but has anything come to lite re workforce hanging all the way across the track? Initial feeling was that he travelled fine and doesn't have an ascot problem and that maybe he was feeling something. Also unsure regarding overall form of race. Taking nothing away from the worthy winner and best horse on the day but clearly that isn't workforce's best, rewilding dnf and Sna probably ran to a similar level as epsom at best. Interested to hear the thoughts of others

More excuses for Workforce i see.

He won the worst Derby in years and a messy Arc, time to accept he really isn't this top horse that many continue to see him as.

Worforce scraped home in the group 3 then lost two group 1's, apart from being a "last start race and track winner" I dont see anything going for him with the Arc.

I suggest he go on long service leave with Rondetto.[;)]

The time was poor, no surprise given the farcical antics of the supposed pacemaker. Unlike the Oaks, though, I don't think the lack of pace altered the result, maybe the margins would've been different but that's all. I'm sure Workforce didn't run to his best, but that wasn't a surprise to me and I still don't believe it was the track. My faith in SNA's rejuvenation was misplaced, although you couldn't be certain he won't progress again. I'm kicking myself for not having anything on Nathaniel, I actually had him top of my ratings on wfa terms, albeit only by 1lb, can't believe I talked myself out of it.

Amazing what Ahmed Ajtebi did. Why did he not set a pace ? He was restraining the horse.

Can only think he was following instructions, sint, my guess is they thought a slow early pace would unsettle the opposition?

Very sensible to set a slow pace with Debussy. Rewilding had much more speed than the other boats in the race, and it also gave Debussy a very slim chance of winning rather than no chance had he gone a fast gallop. We will never know what would have happened had Rewilding not put his foot on a hole, but it was the right strategy imo.

If it was sensible plan, why did Dettori have Rewilding out at the back? Holding a horse up is not a great tactic off a slow pace, which I thought Godolphin would be all too aware of after the Oaks debacle.

Because that's how the horse races. He should still have been able to outpace the stayers. He wasn't exactly miles behind them. I agree he might have been better placed had he raced in 2nd or 3rd, but I suspect they didn't want to give the game away and they clearly had confidence he'd be able to pick them off.

It is downhill to swinley bottom, waste of time setting a fast pace until the course levels off and starts to climb from there onwards.

The time was poor for the conditions compared to average, regardless of the layout of the course.

Was there today and the rumors and talk around the course after the race were that Ahmed Ajtebi ignored the instructions completely and i connections were furious with him,guess we will find out more in the next few days as to the truth,as for the race,well the best horse won on the day,was on the WORKFORCE TWICE OVER double and dont think the fact that WF veered across the track made any difference to the result,he ran an ok race but that was certainly not upto his best and even tho Nath is a very good horse i would not expect him to confirm that form on another course with a proper gallop

Nice horsie Nathaniel and pleased for Gosden. A gentleman and showed plenty of heart supplementing him.

The Classic form looks rock solid this year but messy pace which didnt suit the others and WF was injured midrace so we'll see how the form pans out. Interesting pre race comment from Gosden...Despite Debussy running he was worried about a possible stop start gallop...good to see Buick take the horse right on the offensive from the word go.

agree well done supplementing him, but why the hell wasnt he entered /or taken out  in the ist place.

RIP rewilding, most unfortanet scenes there.

But just on workforce,

"Ryan Moore felt that Workforce may have been struck into on the bend and Sir Michael Stoute confirmed afterwards that he had a cut on his leg."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/rewilding-ascot-nathaniel-lands-king-george-as-tragedy-strikes/888932/latest/

Have watched a re-run of the race and I just have no spotted where REWILDING has supposed to have clipped WORKFORCE, can anyone else spot it and perhaps point it out, please?

great call with the OP Elisjohn

wd El Apache

I still am unconvinced the WFA had anything to do with it .Best Horse on the day won.

firstly commiserations to godolphin on the loss of their flagbearer Rewilding. RIP dear boy, we shall forever remember you for the way you cut down the highest quality of fields with your withering irresistible late run.

El Apache, wd in following your gut instinct regardless of what many of us were saying beforehand.

Bazzar, not sure if the camera's captured it, but there was a point coming round the final bend where Rewilding's back legs seemed just for a split second to go away from him, perhaps this was when it happened. I saw this on the on course screen's (assume this isn't the same feed used by the BBC?) and remember saying something at the time. It was before he unfortunately broke down.

When one of the favourites breaks down, and another veers across the track due to a cut leg, is there any wonder that Nathaniel won. All he had to do was run in a straight line in the end. No wonder horse.

Thanks resner, I used the sporting life replay facility and cannot see any possible contact, bearing in mind that I was one of a very few to have spotted G. Starkey pull his right reign which caused the
concertina effect which caused his stablemate to be thrown into the rail and the French horse being disqualified.

As a post script, and as a general point, the KG&D is the most prestigious British flat race of the year, second only to the Arc in terms of its European importance, and yet despite that and despite the prize money, it attracted a field of just 5 runners, one which was the supposed pace maker.

The horsemen's plea that prize money in the UK must be increased just doesn't wash because the correlation between prize money and runners is very weak across the board. surely there are more potential contenders than just 4 horses with a serious chance who might have run.

For me, races like this are the Championship races and I would hope to see the best horse in the country win backed by a strong pace which would produce a true running and solid form.

The tactics employed by Godolphin's pacemaker were not designed to find out who was/is the best horse on the day.I thought that Sh. Mo was someone who always put the best interests of the horse and the sport first. Apparently not.

Whilst handicappers can attempt to justify the collateral ratings given using WF and St NA as yardsticks you have to say that any figures are a guess. The time was equivalent to a handicap and not a top one at that. In such circumstances the benefit of being in front when the sprint begins cannot be overestimated and whilst Nathaniel deserved his win, you cannot say that the form would be repeated should the first 3 meet in the Arc.

in all honesty around 3 weeks ago i couldnt see more than handful of runners in this,and although nathaniel not really mentioned as going for this race i thought well surely mr gosden must see it as a good chance of winning especially as workforcs was very doubtful at the time.i took all the fancy prices i think the biggest i had was 120, but most was to couple of quid at most, i went down to 80s and then settled at around 38, my book showed me with near 3000 on nath, i also backed t/beach straight after the irish derby massive odds on here alas a nr.but when workforce was declared i thought he would win and did lay nath when he was around 8, my profit on the field was in the region of 300 on average , but just before race i put 150 on nath when he was shortening on here at around 6.5, so made a profit of around 900 after comm, im telling this just incase some thought that i might have had a really massive win.and again thanks to sint who asked for nath to be put inthe market

Someone with more superior knowledge will maybe confirm this but dont the horses who get beaten in the KG have a better record in the Arc than those who win it ?

I might be prepared to give SNA another chance, at a big price.

Sandown, only 4 runners in the Sussex too.

Only 3 in a valuable Listed race at Pontefract yesterday too.

Sandown it also points to the fact that being up with pace is an advantage not a disadvantage as MOST jockeys seem to believe, Moore
is a prolific subscriber to holding horses up, much to my annoyance, cannot somebody explain in diagrams that if a horse is only 5 lengths off the pace, then that horse only has to make 5 lengths up than Moore's normal 12 lengths, PRESVIS is a good example.

Personally I wouldn't be interested in backing Workforce to gain revenge on Nathaniel. He ran a fine race in the Eclipse and yes on the figures he has every chance of winning another Arc, with the less disadvantageous wfa terms in October. He should run well again, however, for the winner I would much prefer to rely on a horse still going forwards or at least, who has only just reached its peak, I really don't see Workforce in that category.

In a match bet if both were to line up at Longchamp, I would definitely side with Workforce to be ahead of Nathaniel if both were offered at 10/11.  Ascot form means very little anywhere else imo.

A look at the list of winners of the KG or St James's Palace would suggest otherwise.

What i mean is performances at Ascot that stand apart from a horses other form is not to be taken literally, Nathaniels form at other tracks show a 1/20 maiden victory in a 3 horse race and 3 seconds, Workforces form away from Ascot is a derby victory, an arc victory, a brigadier gerard victory, an eclipse second on unsuitable ground short of his best trip, a dante second behind subsequent 3 time Gp 1 winner Cape Blanco and his maiden victory.

You're hardly using the same criteria to judge both horses fairly. Those 3 seconds included one to Frankel, a 3 times Gp1 winner and most impressive Guineas winner for years and another to a Derby 2nd and Irish Derby winner, he's also obviously a year younger.

I also don't buy the argument that Workforce wouldn't be able to show his best at 10f. I've seen many good 10f horses that didn't really get the extra 2f but I've not seen any 'top class' 12f horses that couldn't run equally as well at 10f, given the chance.

so how would you price up a match bet of Workforce v Nathaniel if they were to meet in the arc on good ground?

If it was just a match bet then I would probably price them up evenly, or maybe just slightly favour Nathaniel. I'm not saying I strongly fancy Nathaniel to win the race, as I've said, I have Workforce rated above him so I wouldn't be surprised if he finished ahead of Nathaniel. It's just that if I was to back one of them to produce that bit extra to actually win the race I would side with the 3yo, as he still has potential for improvement, I don't think Workforce has.

Are people just completely ignoring the whole workforce was injured during the race thing? Or is it being dismissed as a lie (as someone seemed to suggest by saying they couldn't see it in the vision).

Seems hard to ignore to me and i'd put wf above nathaniel if they meet in the arc, but i probably wouldn't back either of them to actually win it.

The irony of the race is that SYT would have almost certainly bolted in to win given what happened, he would have shat all over Nathaniel IMO.

Unfortunately they probably did not want to risk going up against Rewilding and Workforce in the same race, but im kind off glad they didnt because it could well have been SYT that hit a "hole" if that's what actually happened.

Surely SYT has to be a much better bet at current prices on the Arc than Workforce and Nathaniel?

To me So You Think has demonstrated that he is no better than an average group 1 winning horse, has run to the same rating from me on each of his last 3 runs.  There are a few horses around that are superior to him in my book and I hope he runs in the arc along with Nathaniel as both will be underpriced. A 3yo wins it this year for me and Pour Moi is my leading fancy at the mo

I must apologise for writing that I re-viewed the race on the sporting life site, it was the ATR site, just viewed again and cannot see where workforce was struck into and we were not told which leg was cut.
Horses have been known to strike into themselves when over reaching.

grendel, no problem, i respect your opinion even though you are wrong.[;)]

Can anyone tell me what was the lowest price Workforce touched in running?

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/230711/Ascot-GB-Asc/1630

only evens apparently.

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/230711/Ascot-GB-Asc/1630

only evens apparently.

Thanks for that Dan. Doesn't surprise me too much I guessed at maybe 1.8/1.9 at best.