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Sussex Stakes

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Replies: 211
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 11 09:21
For me, the evidence is already there on the clock, but for people sceptical of times, there's also the fact that Cityscape got within two and three quarter lengths of her, in a race run at a good gallop.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 11 09:22
* ONE and three quarter lengths.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jul 11 09:27
Fair comment.

Enjoying the discussion,and it does seem i am in a minority.I am fully prepared to be proven wrong,but its only the horses that can do that.
To be honest i aint saying Frankel wont be great,i just need to see him beat the horse that i consider to be the proven best miler around,before i start saying it.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 11 09:32
Budd, I suppose it's how you define great. I think Frankel was a brilliant 2yo and his performance in the Guineas was a "great" performance, right up there with the best, whether he can repeat that kind of performance though is another matter.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jul 11 09:53
He certainly did'nt repeat it at Ascot,although i do think he was badly ridden,and had he been ridden differently he may well have repeated it.
Yes his guineas win was impressive and it did look a great performance,but i aint convinced about those behind him being top milers.
Yes we can define greatness differently,and those that are saying Frankel is great may well be right.Guess i am one of those boring gits that need more convincing!!
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Jul 11 10:48
I really cant see how anyone needs convincing to just how good Frankel is. I find the whole thing baffling tbh.

Canford Cliffs had not achieved half of what Frankel has at the same stage of his career.

Why do people expect horses to produce superstar performances all the time ? Human beings cant do it.

Look at Usain Bolt. We know he is the best srpinter we have seen, but at the moment he is strugging to break 20 secs over 200m but he is still winning.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 10 Jul 11 11:06
Was Cliffs ever 2/1 with Cor*ls?
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 10 Jul 11 12:52
frankels form (amongst his own age, which is all that can be expected really at this stage) is there for all to see. its unfortunate that there isnt another 3yr old miler to give him a good race. unfortunately the other 'milers' such as pathfork appear to have left their form behind them (for now anyway).

the guineas was a strange race, with many of the horses that finished in behind frankel not doing much since and have been very disappointing. i wouldnt argue that dubawi gold shouldve won the irish guineas but hey roc did with a clever ride and sure he was miles behind the brilliant horse at newmarket. horses down the field have run well but the likes of casamento and native khan and fury have diasppointed me at three personally.

frankel did beat treasure beach so impressively in the royal lodge but that was at 2 and over a trip that would be far shorter that his eventual best yet people talk as if frankel wouldve won the derby by 20L just because he had the derby winner behind him at 2? yes its in the form book hat he beat the derby winner but not under the circumstances that the winner won the derby in. would frankel have won the derby? i honestly dont know, ive always been against him as a middle distance horse purely on the way he runs, his pedigree is stout enough tho and one could probably find another derby winner over the years who was far more disadvantaged than frankel with regard to pedigree.

i dont think he wouldve won myself but we will never know. i think he is a fantastic horse and to crab his performances is just ridiculous BUT imo he does lack the versatility (so far) that you would associate with great horses RE being confined to the mile. its an interesting argument as many believe that a horse cant be a 'great' if he only runs over a mile. i dont think this personally, if a horse is totally dominant over a specific trip and like frankel neigh on unbeatable then i think the word great can be used provided they have raced and beat all the best horses of their time over that trip. frankel has not done this yet for me. as i said his achievements are there for all to see, the guineas was astounding and even his last win albeit unconventional, the fact that he held on was an achievement in itself , for me anyway. i dont think theres another horse in training at the moment that couldve been ridden like that and still won the SJP and that is the sign of a potential great.

i want to see him against his elders now, canford, goldi and even city scape, who ran a fine race lto, i want to see his dominance over the older horses and would love to see him at 10f, would love to see how he fares against them all. i want to see if he is the real deal, a great. i its just people are looking at the likes of treasure beach, and thinking frankel has beat him, wow, and he won the derby, he must be some horse, but the fact is he didnt beat treasure beach this yr over 12, would he? i dont know but i doubt it. as i said he lacks that versitality (so far) that the likes of sea the stars , dancing brave, sea bird, nijinsky all had, they dominated all trips, they were supreme, so far frankel has beat his fellow 3yr olds over a mile. as i said before its not like he lined up in the derby and beat them all over that trip.

i just think these things are worth considering when we talk about 'great' horses or potential greats, for me frankel still has a bit to prove, 1) against older horses and 2) over a longer trip outside his comfort zone. he can be a great miler, and can great milers be all time greats? to me , of course  BUT if he does not go on and beat gp 1 winners over 10f (at least) and older milers he will always have something to prove, to me anyway.

the fact that the trainer wouldnt run him in the derby just magnifies the achievements of sea the stars, mill reef, dancing brave et al and what a race like that requires, and that he didnt think frankel had the ability to stay thus showing the limitations of the 3 yr old champion!!

outstanding 3 yr old- absolutely

all time great- not just yet (imo).

apologies if i offended anyone, i dont want to crab the horse and im not, i think hes amazing just want to see him beat them all like the other greats had to and they did it over all distances, something frankel is unlikely to be able to do or even given the chance to do unfortunately!

gl
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 10 Jul 11 12:55
irish derby winner* and derby 2nd (was what i was trying to say re treasure beach sorry)
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jul 11 13:52
Sint,i need to see Frankel beat the best around.Thats my choice.Hope that helps you understand.

The below comments fron ILWAB pretty much sums up my feelings:

i just think these things are worth considering when we talk about 'great' horses or potential greats, for me frankel still has a bit to prove, 1) against older horses and 2) over a longer trip outside his comfort zone. he can be a great miler, and can great milers be all time greats? to me , of course  BUT if he does not go on and beat gp 1 winners over 10f (at least) and older milers he will always have something to prove, to me anyway.




i need to see Frankel beat the best around to be convinced.Thats my choice.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jul 11 13:53
oops,ignore that last sentence,already said that!!
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 10 Jul 11 16:26
yes i think thats fair budd. i was impressed frankel could win last time givent the ride tom gave tho having said that , he was ridden the same in the guineas yet he never came back to them , well he did but did it way easier, maybe the racing is having an effect.

for me personally its difficult to put him with the likes of sea the stars as sts did it all, all distances, and easily. the fact that these great horses could win the best races from a mile to mile and a half just makes their achievements moe remarkable that frankels if he decides to stay at a mile. i still believe he can go on and beat anything. i actually fancy him to beat canford myself but only if hes ridden with patience. i think he is an incredible horse and again want to make that clear, i dont want to see him beat and im not willing him to get beat but if for some reason he never saw the track again, i wouldnt be convinced he wouldve beat canford. its not that clear , to me anyway, i know others say he will stuff canford, maybe he will but i find it difficult for anyone to be THAT confident.

likewise if he doesnt win races over further against the best its hard (for me) to put him up there with the others, regardless of what timeform tell me!!

thats just me, on what ive seen , hes a special horse, but he has a bit to go yet imo!


gl
By:
grendel
When: 10 Jul 11 16:42
With regards to the St Jamess Palace stakes with Frankel, its easy to be disappointed with the apparent unconvincing winning distance, but don't forget the round course races tend to make them shorten their strides close home historically if going for home early.  In the '86 King George Dancing Brave cantered into a lead only to be closed down again close home by Bashkaroff.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jul 11 16:43
Apart from having to eat a slice of humble pie,i would not have a problem at all with Frankel beating Canford.In fact if he were to beat CC and stay unbeaten at a mile or maybe further it would be great for racing.

Looks like a few mates and myself will be going to Goodwood for the Sussex,i just hope and pray both turn up,and they are both in tip top shape.
By:
grendel
When: 10 Jul 11 16:48
Shardari sorry, not Bashkaroff ... dunno where I got Bashkaroff from???
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 Jul 11 16:52
Canford Cliffs will slap him silly
By:
grendel
When: 10 Jul 11 17:10
how do you think the race will be run?
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 Jul 11 17:15
Canford held up near the back, Frankel just in front, Frankel kicks on about 2.5f from home, puts a bit of fresh air between himself and Canford, Hughesy asks Canford to pick up shortly after, gap closes significantly half a furlong out, Canford soon hits the front and wins by 1 1/2L

imo Silly
By:
warringtonwire
When: 10 Jul 11 18:01
just taken me an hour to read this all the way through. great stuff guys. can't wait.
By:
jonibake
When: 10 Jul 11 18:49
I tell you one thing though - I can't see there being more than 4 runners in this race.

6 of the 12 declared ran this week:

Dream Ahead - won well but is heading for France next and trainer stated he now knows he doesnt get a mile.

Delegator - one of 4 Godolphin entries and finished down the field. Most likely to stick to shorter distances.

Dick Turpin - won well and COULD run I suppose but will be very ground dependent and, again, possibly more like to head for France.

Red Jazz - down the field and heading for the Lennox next.

Antara - second of Godolphin's and down the field in the Falmouth - surely no way near good enough.

Maqaasid - same comments as above.

That leaves Godolphin's other two - Rio De La Plata and Neebras of which I would say Rio is the likeliest runner and Zoffany who is supposed to be going for the Maurice Geest along with Dream Ahead.

Rajsaman, Canford and Frankel are the only 3 runners that have definitely been put forward by connections.

Even if Rio and Zoffany run it still leaves no front runner, in fact they are all hold up horses....except Frankel. But they don't want HIM to lead anymore!!!

It will be fascinating to see how this race unfolds tactically. In theory Frankel could be settled nicely in front and kick for home 3 out a la the Royal Lodge. In reality it is one thing to settle this horse in behind others but another to ask him to do it when he has nothing but clear grass in front of him. On the other hand they don’t want to let him stride out a la the Guineas and set the race up for Canford. Richard Hannon and Hughes have always said that their horse is better suited to a strongly run race and Frankel would be a sitting duck if he were to tire as he has done in his last two races.

I am sure this won’t happen but I would think about supplementing Bullet Train. Before you all call me nuts – he is Frankel’s regular galloping companion and usually leads him in all his work. He could set the exact pace that will suit connections tactics and allow the horse to settle without having to do the donkey work out in front. Like I said, it won’t happen but I don’t think it would be the worst tactic in the world.

Like I said, fascinating.
By:
Howellsy
When: 10 Jul 11 19:00
Absolutely superb idea Jonibake. Possibly a bit too imaginative and unconventional for racing folk though. It's so obvious, now you've mentioned it, that if they DON'T do it, it's a sign that they'll be happy to make the running again.
By:
jonibake
When: 10 Jul 11 20:46
Thanks Howellsy. Let's see.

ILWAB - re Frankel being a "great" - even as a fully paid up member of the Frankel fan club I couldnt argue with much you said. All perfectly reasonable arguments.

The only thing I WOULD say is - give him a chance. He is half way through his 3 year old career and the bigger tests lie ahead. Connections have known for some time that they have a most serious horse on their hands and have been diligent in the planning of his races. He missed the Derby because a) Henry wasn't sure he would stay but also b) he thought the race could bottom the horse.

He knew he would have to live with the fact that most of the great horses are Derby winners and Frankel never will be. What they HAVE done though is give the horse every chance to go on winning by taking things more gradually and they have never got too ahead of themselves. Having met and passed the challenge of beating his own age group, he must now beat his elders over a mile. IF he can do that, the next challenge will be a step up in trip.

Whether he ever runs over a mile and a half is highly questionable and will depend a lot on how he gets on over 10f. If he DOES win over 10f then he will have won Group 1's over 7f, 1m and 1m 2f (a variance of 3 furlongs as opposed to the 4 of Sea The Stars). Would that not make him a "great"?

Whilst not yet a great, he has produced some great performances - but even I would want him to pass another test or two before we can start putting him on the same plane as the all time greats.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 10 Jul 11 20:53
oh defo joni, thats what im saying, he still has somethings to prove but its only at this time of the season where the 3yr olds start to meet the older horses so he crabbed on that front. he will have his chance and hopefully he'll come out on top!
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 10 Jul 11 20:55
and yes his guimeas will prob be remembered as the most impressive ever. we will see what the rest of the field achieve at the end of their careers but one thing is for sure, few horses if any, wouldve have beaten him that day!

truly one of the greatest performances ever in that race!
By:
A_T
When: 11 Jul 11 19:19
There is a lot riding on the Sussex for Frankel's legacy. If he loses he'll be seen as only a great 2 year old and Guineas winner - but a win and he'll be one of the great milers.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 11 Jul 11 20:11
Canford team think 'big boys' could beat Frankel
By Peter Scargill 7:05PM 11 JUL 2011

FRANKEL is going to find life significantly more difficult against the "big boys" in the eagerly anticipated Qipco Sussex Stakes, according to connections of last year's winner, Canford Cliffs, who goes for a repeat.



Frankel has carried all before him in his seven starts against his contemporaries, including a magnificent front-running win in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, and is disputing favouritism for the 1m Group 1 Sussex Stakes with the year older Canford Cliffs.


However, Richard Hannon jnr, assistant trainer to his father, believes Frankel will be vulnerable when he faces the older horses for the first time.

He said: "Frankel is a very, very good horse and worthy of utmost respect, but he is a three-year-old among the big boys now and he might well find it tough."

Hannon, who described Canford Cliffs as "a proper man", admitted the multiple Group 1 winner was becoming increasingly lazy and added that taking on a new rival in Frankel would be what the horse needs to spark him into action.

"He is getting very lazy - he has seen it all before," Hannon said. "He loves his routine but we change it about a little bit and that is why Goodwood and taking on a fresh horse may be a good thing."
Frankel - Ascot - 14.06.2011



He added: "I don't remember a race that I have looked forward to so much."

Hannon's views will be of interest to Frankel's jockey Tom Queally, who is planning to look for as many "chinks in Canford Cliffs' armour" as he can.

The tactics employed by Sir Henry Cecil's stable jockey could prove significant.

The Khalid Abdullah-owned runner set a scorching gallop when winning the 2,000 Guineas and made an aggressive mid-race move, having initially followed a pacemaker, when just lasting home in the St James's Palace Stakes - a ride that received widespread criticism.

Cecil has already said that Frankel will be ridden differently but Queally was tight-lipped on his plans for Goodwood.

"It is hard to know [how Frankel will be ridden] - there may be contrasting tactics to what we have seen already," Queally said.

"From my point of view, all I can do is look for chinks in Canford Cliffs' armour, like in the races he has been beaten in."

He continued: "Frankel wants to please you - he is a trier. A lot of horses with that amount of ability get there, prick their ears, pull up and all sorts - not him, he just wants to keep going. It is going to be a great spectacle."






looks like tom forgot he said he idled last time.
By:
tinkler
When: 11 Jul 11 20:37
Its a bit strange that they haven't entered a pacemaker , especially as connections are always going on
about how much he pulls up in front.  Having said that Frankel is adaptable and can run from anywhere
whereas CC is a one dimensional hold up horse.   I don't see the race as big test for Frankel as I
think he'll have too much speed for CC. The real test will come if he lines up against SYT at York
.  It would be great to see if his ability can last another 2f.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jul 11 06:11
He may or may not have too much speed,but its always a test when a 3yr old takes on the more experienced and proven milers.
Their is a reason why the older horses carry more weight,they are bigger and stronger-normally.
Lets see if Frankel can prove he is as good as a lot think.
A worry for me would whether the jockey can get him settled in a small field,if he cant he could well struggle to beat Canford.
By:
grendel
When: 12 Jul 11 09:02
The reason why older horses carry more weight is the weight-for-age scale, its meant to pitch horses from different age groups to replicate a scenario of them racing as if they were all mature.  Last year Canford Cliffs received 8lbs from Rip Van Winkle so theoretically would have to improve 8lbs to put up the same performance this year.  The w-f-a scale dictates in mile races that horses improve from 37lb in early August of their 2 yr old season right up to the end of Dec of their 3 yr old season.  This is all theoretical and different horses mature at different rates ... having said that, i rated Frankel's 2 best 2yo figures at 90 and 89, which he improved upon in the guineas to 95, an improvement of 5 lengths or about 10lb

Out of interest i've added wfa allowances to my ratings at 3.2 lbs / length


adjusted lifetime ratings for CC are 94,95,?,- 85,89,91,90,91 - 86,91
                 ... and for Frankel 90,98,88,96 - 83,99,95

The ratings for Canford are reliant on what figure the second horse posts in his races as he's ridden to just get up but since his 2yo days has not needed to get above 91 whereas Frankel has 4 figures higher than 94 !, I didn't allow for weight carried as virtually all performances are close to 9-0
By:
grendel
When: 12 Jul 11 09:04
meant to type 5 lengths or about 16lb
By:
Graeme83
When: 12 Jul 11 11:51
I hope they can give us the same kind of racing rivalry that Ravens Pass and Henrythenavigator exhibited.
By:
harry2.1
When: 12 Jul 11 23:42
Just had a quick look at AP prices on my poker account site (Blue Square)and they go place odds each way 1/4 the odds first TWO ! Real attraction for punters there.
By:
grendel
When: 13 Jul 11 07:27
Will prob only end up being Canford, Frankel, Dick Turpin and a few rags racing for the prize money.
By:
Rondetto
When: 17 Jul 11 10:29
Comes as no surprise Tom Quealy is being tight lipped about how Frankel will be ridden after the rubbish written about him. Most of which is written by geniuses with full ashtrays and half empty cans of McEwans lager who of course know more about what makes a good jockey than Sir Henry Cecil does.

Richard Hughes said of Canford Cliffs after he almost pulled him into orbit at Goodwood as a 2 year old "He's a freak"

All associated with Frankel say "He's a Freak"

The big difference is Canford Cliffs has grown out of those tearaway antics and is now developed into a gentleman of a horse.

Frankel on the other hand has been encourage to do mad impulsive things like take off like Overdose and sustain the gallop for a mile.

Basically Henry and Tom Queally need to get their act together there is no denying that but Henry has been round a long time and you can bet your life he and Tom Queally now realise "he is not Pegasus" and they will have a plan that Tom will carry out to the letter. 

IMO:- To win Frankel has to be settled and it doesn't matter whether he does so behind or in front.

As long s he's traveling well within himself and and they reserve that explosive speed until just inside the 2 furlongs marker he should win.

The fact he is getting weight and is physically mature beyond his years is a huge plus. Add to that Canford Cliffs takes just that few strides more to get into full flight the combination should swing things in Frankel's favour.

That said if Canford Clifs proves superior it won't be the biggest surprise I've ever had.
By:
ocean0201
When: 17 Jul 11 13:52
only two runners? can anyone shed some light on other probable runners..
By:
grendel
When: 17 Jul 11 14:17
even Canford not definite to run if it ends up soft
By:
galileo79
When: 18 Jul 11 20:22
once the ground is good or better CC wins this. i even think frankel will set it up for him with queally kicking for home too early again.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Jul 11 05:21
For me Frankel has to at least produce his Guineas performance,which may or may not be good enough,and he must not run like he did at Ascot.He needs to settle and conserve speed for the finish,neither is by any means guaranteed.
Canford will run his usual race,no doubts in my mind he will.
If i were backing at the prices it would have to be CC,too many doubts for me to back Frankel at the likely price.
Having said that,i probably will just watch,imo its one of those races where one could be proved horribly wrong-whatever opinion you have,and at the likely prices i dont think i would be willing to risk it.
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 19 Jul 11 11:40
I would be a little worried about the ground for Canford Cliffs. I can see the ground being no better than good with all the rain forecast in the next week. I think if the ground was softer than good then it moves things very much in Frankels favour. While both prefer a better surface, Frankel was very good at Ascot & in the Dewhurst on ground worse than good. Overall despite being a big fan of Canford Cliffs I think Frankel if ridden in a different way may just show how special he is
By:
grendel
When: 19 Jul 11 11:56
Hannon getting a bit desperate with his comments on the RP website regarding his view that he's surprised that Henry Cecil doesn't drop Frankel back to 7 furlongs given the way he ran in the St Jamess Palace Stakes.

I wonder if there was a view by both trainers that the other trainer would withdraw from the race to avoid defeat, how much stud value would each horse lose by losing this clash.

I don't think it would take much time to decide not to run Canford Cliffs if 'soft' appeared anywhere in the going description, he already voiced concerns about it pre Queen Anne
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