***Paddy Power Gold Cup Cheltenham 2011***

Very annoying.

After the Nicky Henderson debacle in the same race a few years ago (remember Jack the Giant/Barbers Shop and the some would say contradictory statements about their participation?) I did try to be more careful and discount any bullish comments by trainers about running plans. Too bad I didn't follow my own advice here. Mr Nolan is now on my list as one to be wary of.

Very frustrating for backers, but don't think this one is quite on the same scale of a few of the real debacles we've had recently. I suppose his price said it all, really. Although Nolan should probably have been more forthcoming (or at least not suggested they were leaning towards the race), it is a reasonable decision not to run. The fact that he entered/left NP in the Fortria earlier in the week showed that connections had not made up their minds, so I suppose, while frustrating, the signs were there.

I would most probably have backed him on Saturday, as I love the horse and think conditions will be almost perfect, but I had been struggling to put a wedge down with him running off 160. He is all class but not many are able to win what is always a rattling good handicap off that sort of mark. Same goes for Wishfull Thinking - love the horse but just don't see him being up to defying 164. It's easy to make a case for him as he is so smart, and the lower weighted horses do not leap off the page as probable winners, but there is very often something lurking in these races and I suspect a lighter weight will win it this year. Am having a classic 180 moment here, but wonder if Great Endeavour is the one off these terms?

PS: Probably is better for the horse with the whole season ahead, but would not be at all surprised to see Big Zeb win at the weekend, even if he is not 100% wound up. Much quicker (and probably classier) than NP in my eyes.

Nolan said the decision to run Noble Prince in the Paddy Power, where he is due to carry 11st 2lb, may depend on whether top-weight Poquelin remains in the line-up.

"Things are still up in the air regarding where Noble Prince willrun at the weekend," said Nolan on Tuesday. "We're not ruling out the Fortria Chase at Navan on Sunday, but we are leaning towards Cheltenham.

"However, whether Poquelin runs in the Paddy Power could influence our decision as we don't really want the weights to go up."

I'm afraid that falls firmly into the "better to say nothing at all" category.

This is what's wrong with racing, too many bull****s out to make a fast buck. There were thousands for NP after yesterday's statement and I'd be amazed if some of it didn't end up in Nolans pocket.

Fair enough its ante post I know but if that wasn't a tuck up job i'd like to see one.

Headline on the RP site yesterday was Nolan leaning towards Paddy Power.

Headline less than 24 hours later Noble Prince to bypass Paddy Power.

In 24 hours he's gone from we will run if Poquelin does to his ratings too high. Bullshit, and it does the sport no good whatsoever.

Frankly we should all know better. Ante Post with nrnb only for me in future. Nolan should have kept his mouth shut.

Why do you think there was so much anger at the new rule about owners not being able to lay other owners' horses from the same stable? It's all a crock of **** but at the end of the day you don't have to bet.

I can understand people's frustration.

How much have the ratings chenged in the last 24 hours?

But at least Nolan has made an announcement. The second fav is still ominously weak.

I'm cross with myself, I should no better but how do people new to the sport view such rubbish? That's my point.

sadly..we're seeing this more & more....

but...we all know the score,not many on the antepost forum,stll wet behind the ears....so we lays our money and takes our chances..

do feel for anyone who had a cut of him after y/days comments & poq being confirmed.

^ Agree with trev w. Just re-read my earlier post and it didn't really explain what I meant too well. Was trying to say I feel for those who did get involved, but just that I don't think this is that bad a case of someone putting punters away.

Although very frustrating, Nolan never actually said NP would run if Poquelin stayed in - just hinted that would be the case. And as trev says, we do all know the score. It has happened to all of us and will happen to all of us again, but you do take your chance every time you bet antepost. We obviously do it because of the value on offer. NP would have been near enough half the price he was yesterday if he turned up, so on some level (that probably doesn't help those who backed him) it was a risk worth taking.

Unless connections say point blank that a horse will definitely be running in any race in the future, I think, sadly, we have to accept that we are risking a no-run scenario, even if the suggestions are that you will be getting a run for your dough.

I backed him lastnight after Nolans commemts. I should have known better really, rather than trying to be smart & nick an extra couple of points. On the plus side though, i see Nicky Henderson has confirmed Daves Dream to be a runner after all but ruling him out earlier in the week

bb..was just about to say same anout daves dream...he even named the two his that would be running...

think as dd suggested a few posts up....sme trainers just have to be ignored / or wait till dor markets...

2 trainers who do seem to find quite st forward...and both from..lets say interesting stables / dads

are david pipe & donald maCcain

trev i agree fully with your last two posts.....nolan likes to keep his tan topped up.....

WT beginning to shorten up now again, back into 7s

48 hour decs out tomorrow morning?

The poster 'New Approach' has put us all away here, saying yesterday that he has close sources and that Noble Prince definitely runs. Poster to avoid (NAP)

Done my money as well (NB)

I can understand your frustration but taking as gospel what people say on here is not advised.

ironic that he's called new approach

Nolan, what a clown. More or less said if Poq runs he'll run. In March he never confirmed him for the Arkle or Jewson for ages, then after the Jewson he says this had been the target for 3 months. Why bother, goes down alongside Mullins now.

Ground/weights in his favour. NP had a massive chance

Price looked too good to be true and so it proved. I've backed Wishfull but had saved my stake on Noble Prince for obvious form reasons. I'm worried now that Wishfull is too big and suspect he won't be declared later today. If he is, the 7/1 won't last long.

hope he is for you ff

I lost money as well. that was the word coming from the stable.

Probably going to annoy lots of people here but I dont actually think Nolan has done much wrong here. We knew the horse was running off 160 and statistically speaking his chances of winning would have been very difficult. He may have given an ambiguous statement but I presonally think there was enough doubt hanging around to have been wary. Comiserations for losing your doe but for me Paul Nolan is a good egg, he's just guilty of speaking his mind rather than being concious to the ante-post factor involved in this race,imo.

An apology to all those you put away would be the decent thing to do, New Approach.

I never intended to mislead anyone so apologies for that. That was the information I had at the time.

Fair enough. I think Nolan has a track record of indecisiveness and excessive caution anyway.

Re Wishful Thinking, he is far worse of at the weights with Loosen My Load and Calgary Bay on last Seasons form. Do you guys think he has more improvement in him?

To my eyes he will probably need to be Gold Cup class to win this of his current mark.

Commiserations to you NP backers, hard to take but thats the gamble with Ante Post bets unfortunately

Mon Parrain could go off at 2/1 here, ridiculous

He may well win but he would have to be a lay at those odds. There is nothing in his form that suggests he has that good a chance tbh.

Fine Parchment, prayers answered, claimer on board. 25-1 looks fair to me.Impressed over the course last year, jumps for fun.
Noble Alan,last run hinted he might have improved, maybe the stepping up from 2m or just a natural progression. Bit scared the final hill may find him out. 20-1

Sint

Nolan probably is a good egg, I've never met him so couldn't offer an opinion. However by placing so much apparent emphasis on the participation of Poquelin he was leaving himself open to criticism if, as he had every right to do, he opted for the Navan race.  I wasn't the only one who placed too much reliance on his words and dived in once Poquelin was confirmed an intended runner. There have been far worse cases of punters being put away but that doesn't entirely excuse him.

Difference of opinion & all that!

Anyone know how to find out which horses were withdrawn and which were balloted?

Not me Pete.

At 20/1 i've backed Noble Alan. Jumping is the name of the game but he didn't actually jump badly lto, he just pitched on landing and unseated rider, he was very unlucky imo, and he'd have won that race well and subsequently gone up 8lb or so. He is definitley well handicapped and looks like he will get his ground, so really if he completes I cant see him out the frame.

Well the way my book has panned out I'm shouting for Finger on the Pulse! A bit of an unlikely
one, I think. Whatever the balloted horses were, they've knocked my value quite badly.

But no one cries for us layers...

PTB
We wouldn't be here without you!
SINT
I backed 3 at the start Real Dubh(non starter) Wishful Thinking & Divers. Not sure how hopeful I am but at least I've got 14's on WT although big ask I think. Am going to have a saver on Noble Alan has fallen a few times but as you say bit unlucky last time & well treated compared to had he won. Thanx for the heads up you always lead well sir.

You're too kind solvingthepuzzle. I sometimes think I should have an opinion and try to
get a couple that win me a good sum, but I prefer to level it all off if I can. Once a
coward, always a coward! I normally end up with a few rags that would win ridiculous
amounts. One day one of them will come in for me

Still think Calgary Bay is very overpriced at 60 - he has been a bit inconsistent and hasn't perhaps lived up to early expectations, but he's run some very good races at Cheltenham and he has a lovely racing weight of 10-2.

Divers for me.....i can easily discount his carlisle run (incidentally l'antartique won at the festival and reappeared in the same race(winning) before success in the paddy power) as it's just ferdy isn't it and the fact that he reported the horse in fine form now after hating the ground up there is all positive to me....he is holding up well in the market too which just shows that the carlisle run is being totally discounted by many.

He just seems to me to be a horse with a bit in hand , he was looked after last year a nice little canter round out the back in a race tfr won early in the season(hated the ground there too) a little 3 runner affair won snuck him in down the bottom of the centenary. He pulled for a way and fiddled a few but he was still travelling turning in and has that kick which enabled him to win a bit cosy i reckon...now look at him sitting down the bottom of the weights tomorrow....a murphy special.

Two bullets in the race for me .
Firstly BILLY MAGERN . Will like the ground and if getting a lead and getting into a good rhythm could do a LITTLE JOSH .

HOLMWOOD LEGEND improved last year and if returning in the same sort of form could reward e/w support at big odds .

If the ground is good to firm Noble Alan wins this.

NOBLE ALANS A CERT

Is there a more appropriate horse for this phrase? Loosen My Load absolutely jizzes up

agreed

if the Giant Bolster gets around he wins

I think the front two in the betting are the proper grade 1 horses in this race. I'm a  big fan of Wishfull Thinking who has run some really good races around Cheltenham in the past, and put up two really good performances at the back end, winning at Aintree by 10 lengths from Medermit, and under top weight at Punchestowns. On that form, has to be highly respected. Mon Parrain looks the next Nicholls hot pot, and could be a good thing at the weights, unless there's some issue that caused him to stop so alarmingly at Aintree. Jumps very well.

On balance, I'd prefer to have my money on Wishfull Thinking, given his course form, and I'm hoping he's still improving and ahead of the handicapper, despite his big weight.

Can anyone point to the form that makes Mon Parrain fav for this race,i cant see it myself.

i agree

Just watched Wishfull Thinking's last two runs again, and he's an admirable sort.

he is,but i think hes got a bit too much weight

You could be right, but I hope his jumping will hold him in good stead. Plus, he generally seems to go from the front, and in a 20 runner field like this, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of carnage in behind, so in the front rank could be the best place to be.

Mon Parrain looks, imo, like he will love conditions, trip & ground, He doesn't look slow and jumps great. It just depends whether or not he is good enough off 152. I suspect he could be, but with lack of course form and prohibitive odds he probably just acca material.

Remember, PN ran Big Bucks in the Hennessy as a 5yo, who himself had finished the previous season at Aintree, and but for a last fence blunder, we all know BB would have won the Henessy.

Yes, it's a bit of an unknown regarding how good he could be.

All we know is that he is on an upward curve. His Topham run was a cracker for a 5yo off 149,imo.

i dont know BB would have won the Hennessey,nor does anyone else.in fact i thought he was beaten,but thats old hat now anyway.

So hes an unknown short priced fav for a competitive handicap- must be trained by Nicholls i reckon.

well I do Bud.

We know how BB finishes his races, that's a fact!

ok mate,no point in arguing about it.

i dont think BB would have won it either,but we will never know

lol. I must be the only one then.

Given we know how well BB finishes and powers up the finish, I think he would have caught the winner, Madison Du Berlais.

But like you say, we'll never know

The way Mon Parrain folded on the run-in at Aintree in the Spring doesn't augur well.....and that was on a flat track! He'll need to be both talented and courageous to deliver on Saturday. Will he have the resolution to go a gut busting gallop and climb the last 300 yards uphill? We'll see.

currently 7/2 best price- no thanks.

if wasnt trained by nichols, and price was based on form, instead of trainer rep,  wud be 8's,

Denman I think he would be a 10/1 shot actually if that was the case.

I also think Great Endeavour would be more like his SP last year (5/1) and as such rate this horse as massive value. Wishfull should be a 9/2 Favourite on form and IMO. I haven't got wishful in my book as think he will struggle even if he is top class FTO under a high mark.

Cheltenham have watered, so they're obviously not expecting a great deal of rain between now and Saturday.

So with the aid of a 7lbs claimer...I think Poquelin is overpriced at 33/1. A decent EW bet.

ao whos ap gonna be on?

anyone get the feeling theres a gamble in the pipeline...

so ap's lowest wt has been 10.02..so could ride FOTP...but not much of hidden plot there...

could a sweat a cpl more off 10.00 on quanty...or just ride him anyway 2 or 4 lbs over wt.....

i'm assuming he would'nt ride 8-10 over on aigle

looking at it..if he could get down to 10.00 he'd be 7 lbs better off with divers...against 4lbs if they were both in the h/cap proper..

anyone know if he's ever got that low..in the last few yrs?

Short as he is, I still think the favourite goes shorter.

Three reasons why:

The public will steam into Ruby and Nicholls on the day, particularly after the stable went virtually TTC last Saturday.

The second fav is friendless in the market.

Mon Parrain races prominently and jumps well. The big question mark about him is his ability to get home up the hill. So the in-running crowd will be lumping on before the off hoping to lay back at short odds three out.

He could easily go off 5/2 on the day.

I adore Wishfull Thinking and wish he was not going for such a competetative race with this rating. Mon Perrain I believe will be Nicholls number 1 Gold Cup horse in March. Great Endeavour admirable but not good enough. Noble Alan an unlucky horse. I cannot see D Brigewater training the winner of such a big race.Irish horses did not have a great record in the race before Tranquil Sea. Not a race for outsiders, you need a quality horse that is fairly unexposed. I'm going round in circles so
BILLIE MAGERN will be gambled on and win

Cant belive Mon Parrain will even run in the Gold Cup the way he finished at Aintree.
If he does do well this season will be in the QM or Ryanair i imagine.

Agree about Billie in that he will run a big race,whether he can win is a different matter but hes one i will have on my side.

Loosen My Load looks to be the forgotton horse in this. Weighted to reverse the form with WT, never been out of the three at Cheltenham & the trainer is proven at getting one right on the big day.

Agree with BB re Loosen my load, also think fine parchment will run a big race at a good price.
Mon parrain could well win and win well but with ??? and short price its not for me.
So backing Loosen my load and fine parchment... g\l

I agree bigben jumps super aswell. Traveled like a dream in the jewsons and your right weighted to beat WT I think that Jewsons form is more than good enough to win this race.

Forum Charge anyone? All over Loosen My Load as well, for all reasons mentioned. Managed to snaffle some 25/1 a few days back with a local firm and cannot see it being out of the frame. Actually very surprised it has not been tipped up more widely with its form with WT & NP and the trainer's outstanding record at Prestbury Park. Also like Tullamore Dew, great Chelts record and will love the ground. Second season chaser so improvement to come which will offset being 4lbs out of the handicap. The jumps is really back folks and I love it!!

Im on Loosen My Load to. Another positive is he,s fit. He,s had 2 runs already this season. Won easily on his first start and forget his 2nd run. 2 Miles on soft ground isnt his conditions. 2 miles + on good ground is what he needs. Henry De Bromhead is quoted has saying theres nothing till the spring after this so you think with his 2 runs before this is his big day. Ive took a win at 20/1 and i had a place bet on here last night 7/2 1st 4. Can,t see him being out of the frame if he gets around and he his a good jumper.

Great Endeavour fans must be feeling optimisitc after Pipe's treble today. Clearly anything he sends out this weekend is primed and ready.

How much rain are they expecting overnight? This could be critical to the race...

Poquelin: There to be popped at off top weight, should run his race but can't see him winning of his current mark.
Wishfull Thinking: Very progressive and has improved since festival, acts around the course, and I think he should be favourite.
Oiseau de Nuit: Course winner and ran a very good race behind medermit. He'll be running off 9.11 with his claimer, I think this is hugely significant, 40/1 is massive.
Loosen My Load: If he was going to win this he should not have got beat last time out. He does not look that well handicapped imo.
Mon Parrain: Way too short for me to bet, and you have to have concerns the way he emptied at Aintree. He may well be a superstar, but I'd like to see it first.
Great Endeaveour: Could not win this off 5lb lower last year, why this year?
Daves Dream: Leap of faith required.
Holmwood Legend: I cannot see this 10yo winning off a mark of 147.
The Giant Bolster: Interesting but I do not think he has much more up his sleave.
Finger on The Pulse: Could run a race, but another who is not well handicapped.
Calgary Bay: Not a bad mark, but fell latest, not great preparation. Trainer not known for handicap plots.
Araldur: Interesting but I am not sure if he will like the course.
Noble Alan: If he jumps well, he could play a part, but it,s a big if.
Quantativeasing: I don't rate the centenary form from the festival, just look at Vino Griego today.
Swincombe Rock: Connections respected but not their first string.
Ariel: ditto
Tullamore Dew: As above
Divers: As above.
Billie Magern: Will be popular given connections but 5lb out the handicap which is not great.
Fine Parchment: Highest ever mark, and does not come across as progressive.

Wishfull Thinking and Oiseau De Nuit look like the two value bets in this race and will be carrying my money.

has mon parrain lost a leg...drifting like a barge

Nicholls said he thought he was too short + people (particularly Laddies) are finally deciding to oppose the hype.
Ladbrooks 5/1 now so the market has to respect that. They also cut Wishful Thinking to 6s + Dave's to 10s hence corresponding moves on betfair.

pi**ing down in cheltenham as we speak!!!

Need a lot of rsain to replace the moisture lost today. Very mild and blowing a hooley at Prestbury Park!

yep..market just becoming more realistic...been lopsided with MP all week

Pi55ing down here at the minute.

comingupthehill Joined: 10 Jul 05
Replies: 1734 07 Nov 11 21:33   
shortlist - looks good ,at a glance.sunnyhill deleted non runner


MON PARRAIN - ok - top speed rating position - 2nd
NOBLE PRINCE  -ok - 3rd
GREAT ENDEAVOUR  - ok- 6th
LOOSEN MY LOAD - ok - 7th
CAPE TRIBULATION - ok - last ,overall 2nd ,but not in last 12 months ,keeping it in
DAVE'S DREAM -ok - low ,but same got high one b4 12 m
ARALDUR - ok - 6 th

these still in on class and speed

cape trib - non runner.
noble prince - non run.


so that leaves

mon parr
great end
losen m load
daves dream
aradlur

check these against going(soft or heavy)

losen my load seems to need it good or better ,so drop him.

mon parr, great end,daves d ,araldur.

daves dream as ran 19f or long on 6 times,it got beat every time by

73L,48L,21L,44,23,43
plus its tended to need it good - so no dave today .

puzzling ,i m going to start again ,missed something.

i m going to take a chance with holmwood legend,its swapped stables so it might have a bit more in it.

6mm of rain overnight. Ground now officially good to soft, good in places.

Pleasing

Great call on GE by Harchibald

well done harchinbald, eboue. Better handicapped than I thought.

still cant believe how well Noble Alan was going 4 out

My two against the field were Great endeavour and Noble alan.

Backed them both 3 weeks ago.

If Noble alan can sort his jumping out he'll win a big race. What a shame for connections.

Well done Harchi. Congrats

Just got back from Cheltenham. Second biggest stake of my life but biggest ever win at 14/1. TOTAL RESULT.

I was actually overcome with emotion. Just amazing scenes. Those of you who have known me a while will know my connections with this yard and in particular that jockey/owner/trainer combo. I love them. That is no exaggeration. Thanks to all Childofmine, Ebour, Workforce and more for your congratulations. I also posted this on Twitter and they're very pleased too.

I had the first 3 winners today at Chelters, I can tell you nothing has ever beaten the feeling of a winner there. True Magic.

WELL DONE DAVID PIPE #LEGEND

well done harchi...i'm sure martin pipe was a lot happier with the jocks performance on the horse compared to last year.

Well done Harchi mate. Live it up.

was that martins 9th victory in this race?

was the 9th

Mr Eboue.

IS IT a coincidence, Mark Howard (OJA) said exactly the same as you a few weeks ago too ?????

"There is a doubt about the participation of Noble Prince and therefore my two selections against the field, who will appreciate good ground are GREAT ENDEAVOUR (14/1 Spoilsports) & NOBLE ALAN (20/1 Laddies & WH).

so is he he or does he copy he.

I thought we all knew Mark Howard was Howdi!

Joking aside i had to stick with Noble alan having backed him last december and again in the summer when he would have won.

I'll end up following this horse over a cliff!