Nathaniel underestimated by Gosden?

UtHave to agree with that.
I know he is well fancied for the Leger but if he wins his next race impressively maybe the L'arc de Triomphe will become his main Autumn target.

Tipped him up on here several times for the Derby at around 80/1 and was guted when they pulled him out - and to rub it in I didn't back him yetserday

why not uncle? 10/3 a great price yday if you thought he could go close in Derby surely?

Becasue I'm an idiot

Listening to the Jockey & Trainer yesterday i'd be very surprised if they dont go for the Leger. Treasure Beach beat him fair and square at Chester, and the chances are both horses improved.

The 3/1 about Nathaniel is just about if he gets there fit and well, because if he does he'll win.

Wonder if they will go for the Voltigeur with him - if the likes of Treasure Beach, Carlton House, Brown Panther etc turn up I could see him getting beat there, especially on good to firm, which might ease his price out?

Yeah thats possible, he'd have a penalty aswell..

Pisco Sour is being aimed for the St Leger now too

I'd be wary of Nathaniel on faster ground tbh...

i like him but ide rather back the 2nd fiorente for the leger .

Not sure he is going for the Leger. Looks a cracking prospect though.

Apparently they are not aiming him at the Leger - unlikely runner according to owners racing manager.

^ Above post relates to Nathaniel.

Gutted if so.

King George then ?

strange how it often follows a similar pattern. Off the top of my head I can think of Taqleed (Lincoln), Green Destiny (Royal Hunt Cup) and now Nathaniel (St Leger).
Horses at the front of the AP market, heavily supported... suddenly become doubtful runners... and then don't run.
It's a troubling trend for AP punters. Bookies collect the NR money every time and all too often recently.

Make it back in the Arc market!

It should have a bit of juice in the ground at Longchamp in October and he's still 33/1 on here.

Seriously impressive beast

johnnyrant     21 Jun 11 18:02 
strange how it often follows a similar pattern. Off the top of my head I can think of Taqleed (Lincoln), Green Destiny (Royal Hunt Cup) and now Nathaniel (St Leger).
Horses at the front of the AP market, heavily supported... suddenly become doubtful runners... and then don't run.
It's a troubling trend for AP punters. Bookies collect the NR money every time and all too often recent

Not a recent thing by any means, though I suffered with Taqleed - Targets changing,ground etc means its gamble you take backing ante post

In fairness William Haggas did say there was a possibilty Green Destiny might not run, where as if you compare the comments of Gosden & Buick after Nathaniels win then you'd be hard pushed to say they didn't fancy his chances in the Leger!

Anyway, I still think he may run, tbh. Will have a few quid on for the Arc as Roger suggests as 33/1 for an imprving 3yo with proven topclass 2yo and 3yo form with cut in the ground is very big.

nathaniel from a betting point of view a very over rated horse. On soft ground he is clearly very talented,
though it has to be said the opposition was pretty soft. Next time when he runs on good or faster ground
, I'd expect him to be over bet and for his limitations to be exposed. Brown panther is another over rated
horse who looks like soft ground specialist to me. Both horses have a round action which was ideally
suited to the soft going.

Apparently connections are aiming him at the Grand Prix De Paris, this is obviously a fact finding mission to see where he stands with the French colts.

Imo all ante post bettors should be hoping he runs creditably in defeat, if he does win then I'm fairly confident that the Arc will become the big Autumn target. If defeated his sights will be lowered and the Leger will be his race.

Great Voltigeur entry.

Just a back up plan imo sint.

If he is found to be not quite top class in his next couple of runs then the Leger will come into the equation.

Yes quite possible Apoc.

They could actually for the Leger and then the Arc, imo. There is a 3 week gap between the two races but unlikely to happen.

Do you think he is good enough to be competitive in an Arc

On Soft he would have a real shot imh

Yeah only on Soft imo.

He looks to have real roundy action and if he was mine I'd be saving him for possible soft ground races in the Autumn
like the leger, the Arc trials, the Arc or even the Champion stakes if it came up very soft. I wouldn't be
interested in him on faster ground and I'd be saving his energy for when the soft ground comes.

Nathaniel went into my notebook on his debut last year. Could see he relished the cut underfoot. Something told me at the time it was an exceptional maiden. When the rain arrived at R.Ascot Nathaniel became my bet of the week. As others say, if it's soft on Arc day he will have a huge chance.

Any chance we'll get an update from Gosden about his next target ?

As Gosden said, "The Voltigeur is a strong possibility".

There's no reason to doubt that will be his next target.

I completely agree Hippie. But that comment was made before the racing manager had his say a few days later.

Anyway, I think the St Leger is his for the taking and it is interesting the 7/1, 13/2 has been taken on here.

Like most racing manager's he's a tool (Robert Ogden's racing manager, Barry Simpson, is pissing me off something chronic at the moment, can't believe a word he says) but as he was saying they'd perhaps stick to 1m4f this season ([smiley:crazy]) the Voltigeur fits that criteria.

Gosden just told Emma on C4 (Masked Marvel now going straight to St Leger after group 3 win) that if the weather is like this (i.e. raining) we'll next see Nathaniel in the Grand Prix de Paris.

Tilting at windmills, imo.

lol cheers. I've been watching RUK hoping Nick Lukc would interview him.

Nathaniel out at the first forfeit stage of the GP de Paris.

I don't think so, hippie.

you think I'm making it up?

No.

I think you've seen the forfeits and didn't know the horse wasn't entered in the first place. 

The only French race Nathaniel has ever been entered for was the 2011 Prix Hocquart, which rather proves the point the OP is making imo.

Before this mornings forfeit there must have been over 100 entries for the race and after Gosden's comments yesterday and France Galop being such a cumbersome site to navigate I assumed he was an entry rather than a supplementary.

I still think he'll be tilting at windmill if he participates.

So to be clear, it looks like they have decided against France.

I'd like to now from Gosden tbh as the TTF subs come up next week ..

If they're going to go to France they'll supplement on Monday.

cheers Hippie.

This horse is suited to the Leger, beat nothing at Royal Ascot wont have a chance with the top middle distance horses but should appreciate the Leger trip.

Not entered.

Nothing is entered yet

Yes there is. 9 entered of which A'OB has 4 runners. Nathaniel not included, according to ATR.

1    kreem (gb) m.ps. 3 ans P2    58    ***     MUTEB BIN ABDULLAH    A. FABRE    104.450   
2    treasure beach gb m.ps. 3 ans P2    58    ***     D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR    AP. O'BRIEN    1.124.804   
3    meandre m.ps. 3 ans ... (supp) P2    58    ***     FAMILLE ROTHSCHILD    A. FABRE    61.150   
4    grand vent ire m.ps. 3 ans P2    58    ***     GODOLPHIN SNC    A. FABRE    139.850   
5    FREEDOM IRE M.PS. 3 ans 58    ***     M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER    AP. O'BRIEN    11.725   
6    seville ger m.ps. 3 ans P1    58    ***     M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER    AP. O'BRIEN    361.514   
7    MARKSMANSHIP IRE M.PS. 3 ans 58    ***     MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH    AP. O'BRIEN    11.050   
8    reliable man (gb) m.ps. 3 ans P2    58    550     PRIDE RACING CLUB    A.DE ROYER DUPRE    886.100   
9    bubble chic m.ps. 3 ans P1    58    540     F.TABONE/STE BB.G.BOTTI    G. BOTTI (S)    477.950

plot thickens with nath

though baraan would have been in this also

Arc imo[;)]

Headmaster ..you seem a very wise man indeedy. A real shrewdie. What should I have my tenner on in the Leger?

bit and pieces coming for him this morning for kg,?

You've either been drinking or are taking the mickey, liberator of the opressed.  Both fine pastimes imo.

Anyway, Memphis Tennessee should be favourite.  As he isn't, the main value is with him atm. Godolphin usually support the Leger and I can't see a better candidate for them than Blue Bunting.  Masked Marvel also takes high rank on the short list.  That's three tenners unfortunately, loto

Sint, as you've mentioned it on two threads now, a word to the wise - Nathaniel isn't in the TTF.

surely he can be subbed in Hippie ?

NATHANIEL, favourite for the Ladbrokes St Leger,could have his sights aimed at the Betfair-backed King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot next month.




The three-year-old, an impressive winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at the royal meeting last time, could return to the track to face older rivals for the first time.

Alongside the challenge of becoming the first three-year-old since Alamshar to win the race in 2003, John Gosden's colt would have to be supplemented for the Group 1 at a cost of £75,000.

However that may not deter connections according to owner Lady Rothschild's racing manager James Wigan.

Wigan, quoted on the Independent's website, said: "It's up in the air at the moment, but we are discussing the possibility

"The ground will definitely be a factor, but good or good to soft will befine. It would be a big ask, obviously. The difficulty is that there are very few races at this time of year. If you didn't go where would you go?"

"It would depend on a few things, but if we were happy and John felt the same way, then that would be our route."

Gosden also confirmed the possibility of Nathaniel running in the King George VI as he said on Wednesday: "The King George is under consideration."

Ground concerns led to Nathaniel being scratched on Monday for Thursday's Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, although Wigan added that an Arc trial would also be considered if the ground wasn't right at Ascot.

Looks like no chance of having good to firm ground then.

If they do supplement him surely they'll run whatever the ground? Otherwise they may as well have gone for tomorrows race where he will definitely get his ground. I appreciate the Kg is more valuable but if they didn't end up running, nathaniel would not be underestimated so much as the op suggests but badly managed.

I'm confused as to why he's perceived as fast ground dependant, he's run his best 2 races on the slowest ground he's encountered ... close second to Frankel on debut and at Royal Ascot.

It's slow ground they're after.

tbh, I think the ground might be a little bit of a smokescreen now .. Gosden has said previously he would be happy to run on Gf provided it was not going down hill, like you get at Epsom. If he is running up a stiff finish on GF then he will be meeting the ground rather than coming down on top of it.

I still think the Leger is the plan myself but have covered myself for the KG & Arc.

Connections seem to have overrated this horse. On good or softer ground he'd have decent chance in the Leger
yet they don't seem interested in running in the race at all, saying that if they don't get the ground in the
KG he'll run in an Arc trial!.  The best chance he's got of running in the Leger is if he it poors down
and he's allowed to run in the KG where he'll probably come a onepaced 3rd or 4th and then they'll lower
their sights.

Personally I think the owner is looking long term and 'what might be', rather than thinking she has a possible classic winner on her hands. It seems the message is that winning the Leger wouldn't do much for it's value, but were it to win a King George or an Arc, you wouldn't be at all surprised were Godolphin to come calling and keep him in training for middle distance / staying races next season with a long term view of having a son of Galileo as a stallion.

We'll have to see how Treasure Beach gets on in Paris tonight, but were he to win, Nathaniel would look to be very much a leading Arc contender for the 3 yr olds.

I lost money backing it for the Derby and have traded my position on the Leger as I really don't think he'll run in it.

The UK and Ireland middle distance 3 y/o's are beginning to  look mediocre with the top 4 or 5 looking to have a similar level of ability. Given this if I owned Nathaniel I'd run him in the Voltigeur (assuming ground not to fast) then the Leger sticking with his own age group.

lots of rain this weekend..and more f/c for next week....think gosden will let him take a crack at the kg...

had a bit of 12s e/w

yeah they should supplement now for £75k as they get that back if they finish 3rd or better.

i've covered myself on him at big prices, but main bet is St Nick and  managed to trade Workforce for an Eric ''Coward'' Morris style freeby since the rain was forecast on Thursday. [:D]

From Sporting Life website:

William Buick believes the best is yet to come from Nathaniel, who has been added to the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday at a cost of £75,000.

John Gosden's colt was an impressive winner over the same course and distance in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot after finishing second to subsequent Irish Derby victor Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase.

Having skipped the Derby on account of fast ground, and also the Grand Prix de Paris last week, connections have taken the bold step to run him against older horses.

And the test could not be much sterner as last year's Derby and Arc winner Workforce, Coronation Cup scorer St Nicholas Abbey and Prince of Wales's Stakes victor Rewilding are all set to run in a potential seven-runner ensemble.

"It's a fantastic race and when Workforce is at his best which he showed in the Arc, he's obviously a very good horse," Buick told At The Races.

"But I think Nathaniel is improving and we certainly haven't seen the best of him yet. If he gets his conditions, he's a horse who definitely deserves his place in the race."

"The ground was a bit quick for him at Chester and the track didn't suit but that race made a man of him and really did him good."

"He grew up a lot mentally and it turned out to be a good race."

"It was an obvious move. Mr Gosden was happy to supplement him and so were the owners. I'm just pleased to be on the horse."

Tbf sint that is not an Eric style bet..........you have told us pre event

Come on Nathaniel

happy enough with 12s...and the 3 places..considering how its cut up...will go from the front imo...and see if he can make use of the 3 yr old allowance...

should be a cracker all the same...

terrible shame about rewilding....

but geethhfoookkkinnnn nathanial

Won't go for Leger now thats for sure.

Crying shame about Rewilding But thank you Nathaniel

trust you took some 33's the Arc Trev .. [:D]

at least we have our St Leger dough back and some.

awful for Rewilding. Apparently he continued to run in front of the stands, must have looked ghastly.

indeed i have sint....33s e/w 

and 365 were going 40s to win both today...

have topped up fiorente & slumber for the leger...

Took the 50/1 offered by Ladcrooks to win both.

Nice double rolling up on Blue Bunting for Leger.

I think the question that I posed at the top of this thread was well and truly answered today. Nathaniel has proved himself a top class 12f horse yet his trainer didn't even enter him in the Arc. He must go down as one of the best horses ever to skip the Derby and I believe he's the first 3yo winner of the King George not to run in any Derby in over 30 years. I think Ile De Bourbon in 78 may be the last and he also won the King Edward.

I must admit though that I thought today was too big an ask facing 3 multiple Group 1 winners and regretfully I wasn't on.

He surprised me today. Thought on the ground he had no chance. Was on course and to see Rewilding running past the stand was absolutely gut wrenching.

Gosden said something about not being able to enter him in the Arc because he was a maiden at the time. He only broke his maiden this year remember.

And why would you run him in the Derby if you believe the ground is to quick ? He could phuck up his whole season.

Good win by the horse but think he'll be another Petoski/King's Theatre/Belmez - a 3-year-old colt who has his day helped by the generous weight allowance but never does it again.

His chance will be helped by the plan to rest him now till the Arc, some of our best horses have been knackered by October. I agree about the wfa allowance, though, he will only be getting 8lbs then. Maybe he will improve in line with the wfa scale but I think we all know that doesn't necessarily follow. Even if he doesn't, on current form he still looks likely to be involved in the finish, but I think it might just take a bit more than that to win the race this year.

Figgis, you do speed ratings, what rating would you give the performance?

Grendel, it's a very poor figure, I have it just 6lbs higher than the following handicap, which was nothing special. Obviously that's due to the pace of the race and no reflection on the quality of the runners. Fwiw, I rated Nathaniel's previous win 1lb higher than Pour Moi's Derby win, but it's possible that Pour Moi could improve on the bare figure.

figgis...so do you have nath top rated going into the arc as it stands now?

Trev, I don't use wfa and my scale is lower than the official scale, my figures at the weights due to be carried are

SYT       103
Workforce 102
Nathaniel  99
Pour Moi   98

As you can see I don't have a great deal between them and more will depend on their preparation and which get there still at the top of their game. At the moment I think Nathaniel is the most likely to be still in peak condition, as he hasn't really had a hard race yet and is going to be rested. Actually the only bet I've had so far is Golden Lilac, who apart from having to prove her stamina, still has a lot to prove on speed figures.

whats your Frankel figure Figgis?, I do ratings as well and work in lengths per mile rather than lbs, which performances do these ratings relate to? ... out of interest here are my ratings which are adjusted for weight and wfa in the conditions on arc day i.e. 3yo's adding on 8lb equivalent .

Pour Moi     93 (Derby)
Nathaniel    91 (King Ed VII)
Workforce    90 (Brig Ger)
So You Think 88 (last 3 runs all same)

what do you have for Sarafina chaps ..

I don't do french races sint, only Uk and Ireland

cheer figgis & grendel...

i'm quite heavy into por moi & nathniel...so makes good reading from here.....

would did you both think of meandre..fabres other horse...

i think time test had him top rated in the outlook

SYT and Workforce are Eclipse figures, Nathaniel Royal Ascot, Pour Moi Derby. I factor in weight carried but not wfa. I'm not against the wfa scale (although I'd prefer it not to be used in championship races), that's the way it has to be done for official handicapping. It's just that for personal ratings I don't see the point of factoring in improvement that might not happen, while being mindful that it might.

I have Frankel on a very high figure for a 3yo, on his Guineas run at next week's weights I have him on 111 with CC over a stone lower on 96. However, using Frankel's SJP run his figure comes down to 98. On one hand I'm thinking I should be having a huge bet on Frankel, but on the other I'm not exactly sure what to expect from him. I know it's probably true that Queally went too soon last time, but what about the Guineas? He rode a very aggressive race there yet Frankel still managed to post a massive figure. Actually, I was expecting some kind of bounce after that big Guineas run so maybe that's all it was and he'll be back to his best next time. Can't be sure though so I'll just be watching and hopefully enjoying the race.

I don't mean to imply that Frankel is 8lbs better than SYT, that's just the resulting figure at the weights, I have him 2lbs higher than SYT, but that's very impressive for a 3yo.

I've only recently factored in weight for age and weight carried ... my lifetime ratings for Frankel with weight carried and WFA at the time of the races are in series:- 90,98,88,96 - 83,99,95 whereas Canfords highest is 91 (quite a few times)

I've had a big bet on Frankel at 11/10, win or lose its the right decision on my figures.

Sint, I have Sarafina only on 89 at the weights, the way she wins her races though with a late burst I couldn't be sure I have her measure, she could be capable of better. Trev, I have Meandre on 95 at the weights, I wasn't as impressed as some were with his style of victory and I don't really see him improving on that, but I'm sure many will disagree. The winner is now bound to come from something I've failed to mention

Sintonian, There's no rule that you have to break your maiden by a certain date to enter the Arc. Red Rock Canyon ran in the 2008 Arc and was still a maiden. I think Gosden was meaning he didn't think an entry was justified at that time. Even after the King Edward win Gosden only talked of the Leger and I believe it was racing manager James Wigan who stepped in and said we've got bigger fish to fry. It's a strange one because the close 2nd to Frankel fto should have given them hope but maybe he's an idle worker.

Lucky that Gosden saw this thread

The race fell in his lap on Saturday. Looks a very poor price indeed for the Arc, particularly as that race is usually run on decent ground and he is much better on soft. Pour Moi and Meandre have it between them, in my humble opinion.