Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
21 Apr 11 22:21
Date Joined: 16 Mar 11
| Topic/replies: 4,564 | Blogger: rubyisgodinthesaddle's blog
Is this the long term aim for the very costly recruit from Southern Hemisphere. 12/1 Currently on the antepost markets best price.

After the very arduous campaign he had last year and more than likely a very long tiresome campaign this year he want to be some superstar to do it.

Any Ozzy guys know how good this lad potentially is?
Pause Switch to Standard View So You Think: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Show More
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 10, 2011 3:35 PM BST
Any news on Workforce from the Newmarket moles
Report hippie May 12, 2011 9:38 AM BST

Workforce could make his seasonal reappearance at Sandown later this month rather than tackling the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.
Report EastLower Gooner May 12, 2011 12:08 PM BST
suppose they are right. if you're going to meet soyouthink you might as well make it in a huge race like the arc. no point getting beaten by him when your not even fully wound up yet. surprised they are going for the bridagier considering north light got beaten there.
Report sintonian May 12, 2011 12:50 PM BST
so did Conduit, albeit in a Photo.
Report ForceMajeure May 12, 2011 2:19 PM BST
We have them running scared already![;)]
Report getinthere10 May 12, 2011 7:12 PM BST
i dont agree with the thought that the season revolves around the arc and workforce should only take on good horses in the arc
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 13, 2011 1:48 PM BST
I just knew they would not run Workforce now that Soyouthink is on the scene at the Curragh.
A terrible shame...and those wise bookies were right not to price it up in the end. GRRRR....We could have got the best 1/2 shot in history that turned into a 1/12 shot
Report EastLower Gooner May 13, 2011 5:07 PM BST
Should work out well for both horses.

nice easy win for So You Think.

Workforce gets a nice workout. might scare away most of the opposition too.

hopefully they both meet up in the Eclipse or King George.
Report getinthere10 May 14, 2011 5:38 PM BST
coolmore has a lot of good horses for these type of races i cant see any french horses getting sent over like last year in the tatts...the horse they sent over last year looked real good and cant even remember the horses name now :(
Report hippie May 14, 2011 6:21 PM BST
Cutlass Bay, he was undefeated and trained by Fabre when he won the Prix Ganay but 3 weeks later he had been transferred to bin Suroor for the tatts, came 5th of 6 and never won another race.

Hopefully, Cape Blanco will represent Ganay form this year.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 16, 2011 2:13 PM BST
The more i think about it Stoute is some bo*&^cks for not showing up. I wonder will Ryan Moore ride since he be riding for them on Sunday or will Heff keep the leg up.Confused.

I say we will be looking at 1/5? on 2nd thoughts this could be a 1/12 shot. The field looks woeful now that workforce has gone to for a tin pot race at sandown
Report sintonian May 16, 2011 3:56 PM BST
If I owned Workforce I would have told Stoutey to avoid SYT and go for a race you can win. Not surprised they have ducked it tbh
Report cryoftruth May 16, 2011 8:58 PM BST
Just looking at the Timeform ratings I would say that there is quite a bit of value and some desperate value around in the Arc.

of course Timeform get things wrong but its  a decent source of objective assessments.

However of the likely Arc candidates amongst the older horses the ratings and current BEST odds are as follows

133 So You Think 6/1
133 Workforce      9/2f
128 Rewilding       20/1
127p Await The Dawn 33/1 but huge on betfair
126 Midday 25/1 but huge on betfair
126 St Nicholas Abbey 16/1
126 Sarafina 14/1

Now the 2 top rated older hoses are Workforce and So you Think, but their odds are truly skinny at this stage of the season. Backing them at the sort of odds available at the moment looks like madness. There are 3yo's to worry about don't forget. The Derby winner and the Oaks winner are possibles and that French Guineas winner looked not unlike Zarkava to me - a very interesting filly.

SNA is too short and looks likely to be chinned by Midday's turn of foot when they meet at Epsom.

You need big odds to speculate on the Arc at this stage so:

The only two that are worth a speculative ante post tickle at present are

Await The Dawn (an improver who may prove the best of the older hoses this season)
and Midday (consistently under rated) despite being at least as good as Sarafina she is twice the odds on here.

the case for Await The Dawn is on the other thread, but anyone with 5 minutes can just watch his last to runs and admire - he seems to have the lot!

The case for Midday is very clear. She is champion European middle distance filly, she acts well on anything between dead and good to firm ground, is now best at 12 furlongs, is trained by a genius and is game consiostent and has a turn of foot. I have to say I laughed when some clown laid me a bet at 280 on here - ignorance must be bliss I guess. The main thing about Midday this year is that she is not going to be going for the breeders cup as Henry doesn't think the course will suit her at all well. The Arc will be her last race before she visits Sea The Stars.

So there you are the cryoftruth long shots for the Arc.

And by the way I have honestly and truly won a great deal on this race for quite some time, having traded Midday for a huge profit last year, and also having smashed into Worjkforce, Sea The Stars and the amazing Zarkava so I do have some form.

Anyhow, good luck to you all.
Report brandyontherocks May 16, 2011 9:23 PM BST
i dont think you can have a punt in this race until you seen how good or bad this crop of 3year olds are.  they have a ridiculous swing at the weights
Report ForceMajeure May 17, 2011 8:13 AM BST
I appreciate your thoughts on the race, but not meaning to knitpick or anything but Midday has only traded up to 180, not that that is a bad price in itself.
Report sintonian May 17, 2011 9:29 AM BST
Await The Dawn ... Hardwicke .. King George .. imo.

and COT, stop lowering yourself to the others on here with this persistent aftertiming. It spoils the posts and counts for nothing.
Report ForceMajeure May 17, 2011 6:19 PM BST
Someone took all they could on SYT down to $6 today, im laying off at this price.
Report ForceMajeure May 17, 2011 6:59 PM BST
I suspect this Irish report out today had something to do with todays price movement IMHO.
Report EastLower Gooner May 18, 2011 3:41 AM BST
Looks a nice race...better than I first thought it would be.
Report sintonian May 18, 2011 10:00 AM BST
Will Await The Dawn run ? bit surprised by that tbh.

Famous Name has no chance.
Report hippie May 18, 2011 12:19 PM BST

RICHARD HUGHES will partner Presvis for the first time in Sunday's Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji, with Ryan Moore giving up the ride...Moore, who has ridden Presvis in seven of his eight career wins... will go to Ireland to ride So You Think for Aidan O'Brien in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, for which O'Brien is responsible for six of the ten possible runners.

Ballydoyle were always going to have to double up their ten furlong horses and if they think Await the Dawn is Royal Ascot material then this will be a good yardstick.

Report ForceMajeure May 18, 2011 1:59 PM BST
Someone just took $5.50 around $1250 worth FFS!!!

Im not sure if they realise this race is in October, not next weekend!
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 18, 2011 3:16 PM BST
1/3 seems very very generous. I may have to make a get a lump sum down on that. 1000 euro@ 1/3?...easy 300 surely?
Report ForceMajeure May 18, 2011 4:17 PM BST
Some fool layed at $4.50 for the Irish Gold Cup, whilst people are taking $5.50 for teh Arc!

WTF is going on here?Laugh
Report ForceMajeure May 19, 2011 4:34 PM BST
This appears to be the plan set out ahead,

"So You Think’s new trainer, the legendary Aidan O’Brien, hopes to duplicate in major European races including the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, the King George in July, the Arc de Triomphe in October and a rich group of targets near the end of the year."
Report mythical prince May 19, 2011 5:23 PM BST
think he'll win but wouldn't bother taking 1.3 cus I think he'll trade longer in running, think it'll be close.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 21, 2011 3:42 PM BST
1/3 looks incredibly good now!!. A lovely nice hack canter to win this. Prince of Sales should be the next target.

Not sure how that race works with the intended runners but i assume he be a odds on favorite.
Report ForceMajeure May 21, 2011 3:59 PM BST
Hes into $4.00 for the Arc........ Incredible!
Report Viva Pataca May 21, 2011 4:50 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien was interviewed on RTE and the way he was talking, So You Think was more likely to be dropped to a mile than be stepped up to the Arc distance. Which is interesting I think. Of course, there is really only
the Coronation Cup, King George and I think one or two French Grand Prix between now and then.

Sounded as if Cape Blanco was being trained for the Eclipse, and that St. Nicholas Abbey would tackle the mile and a half races.

I'd be interested if So You Think was dropped to a mile, and feel that he'd beat any of Canford Cliffs, Goldikova and Frankel if he was.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 21, 2011 4:55 PM BST
So you think for a mile?? Unbelievable. I believe it when i see Viva. I could see a very long campaign for this horse. While he will win many of these Group 1's in canters due to the lack of strength to take him on(his own stable is his biggest threat) until he takes on the 3yr olds i be surprised if they took on Canford Cliffs(Coolmore owned). Imagine Franke;/Goldikova and So You Think in the QU2 that would be a race. But i assume the Irish Champion Stakes is his major pre Autumn target. Coolmore send their best their and i don't see why it should be any different this year.
Report ForceMajeure May 21, 2011 5:09 PM BST
SYT has run out the 3200 metres in the Melbourne Cup and won two Cox Plates at 2,040 metres, i highly doubt going back to 1600 metre races would be the go here.
Report Viva Pataca May 21, 2011 5:17 PM BST
Don't go taking my post as gospel either - I just thought it was interesting how Aidan described him as a miler/mile and a quarter horse. I'd have thought he'd be talking King Georges and Arcs but maybe he's just trying to emphasise the horse's speed.

Good point about Canford Cliffs. That QEII would be some line-up alright!
Report ForceMajeure May 21, 2011 5:20 PM BST
I think hes just trying to show off a bit, as if to say you got Frankel, i got SYT.

Probably some kind of trainer babble, mines faster than yours type of thing!Laugh
Report A_T May 21, 2011 5:37 PM BST
July Cup and Nunthorpe surely - it's got so much speed
Report Tavaris Jackson May 21, 2011 10:29 PM BST
I heard the interview too and have to say that I took it a little differently than Viva.
I don't for a second think that Aidan really thinks he's a miler. It was just the usual bull$hit about having "so much speed".
Report Viva Pataca May 21, 2011 10:52 PM BST
Your probably right Tavaris.
Report The Big O May 22, 2011 5:13 AM BST
Have a look at his form in Aus, there is no way he would be beaten for speed over a mile if the sent him there.

Though I dont think they will. It will more than likely be Prince of Wales, York International and the Irish Champion before considering the Arc
Report so you think May 22, 2011 7:12 AM BST
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 9:39 AM BST

I can confirm you are indeed in the correct thread![;)]
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 22, 2011 10:10 AM BST
Lads i need advice.

Personally i think he is going to the Prince of Wales and like the financial markets SO You Think price will contract straight away after the race and then when AOB outlines further running plans which includes the Prince of Wales he drop into 1/2? but no firm are pricing it up. i know betfair has him around 1.75 to win but cant get any significant sums on at that price.

Should i ring up a bookmaker and ask them to give me a price? and pile in anything above 1/2?
Report cryoftruth May 22, 2011 10:18 AM BST
Williamhills are perhaps your best chance as they can price up races other don't.

Alternatively you cab save money by watching Famous Name trot up this afternoon.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 22, 2011 10:29 AM BST
Famous NameLaugh Best of luck!!!!!
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 11:03 AM BST
I was lucky enough to get a little bit on at 7 an 7.2 in the POW and since layed off, i wouldnt be taking odds on though you might nibble at the 1.7 odd on offer and then put some bets on at $2 and above an wait to get matched if you are lucky.

Of course if he was to lose this race today (anything is possible) you could get up to $10.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 22, 2011 3:04 PM BST
The 1/3 looks exceptional value nowCry
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 22, 2011 3:25 PM BST
Prince of Wales are next according to John Magnier
Report cryoftruth May 22, 2011 3:25 PM BST
Very impressive.

I am trying to work out what sort of rating he ran.

He seems to beat Camapnologist, including ease of victory etc by about a stone. Campanologist has been a bit disappointing but its hard the think he ran much less than 116. Famous Name was just disappointing and the going was probably too quick for him, I am sure he never ran anywhere near his best. Even so its hard to think that So You Think ran much less than about 130, and he may well be quite a bit better than that.

It may be that So You Think may be capable of getting Await The Dawn off the bit when they meet in the Arc.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 3:33 PM BST
Why did people back Famous Name ffs. He's been found out at this level in the past. The ground in excuse either, it was quicker last time when he Won.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 3:34 PM BST
Ruby, it would hardly make you rich though would it ?
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 3:35 PM BST
* is no excuse
Report EastLower Gooner May 22, 2011 3:41 PM BST
Prince of Wales confirmed as his next race.

looks like they might keep him at 10f.
Report flyingbolt May 22, 2011 3:54 PM BST
Maybe although there isn't a suitable 12f race in June.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 3:58 PM BST
Hes run out 3200 metres before, make no sense whatsoever to take the Frankel route and stick to 1600 metre races, you would surely go the Prince of wales at 2,012 metres, then the King George at 2,414 metres and go the Arc later in the year.

Why would you not go for the Arc? Makes no sense whatsoever.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 4:02 PM BST
Arc is secondary to trainer imo. He is more interested in the UK group 1's first.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 22, 2011 4:13 PM BST
I don't think any race is bigger than the Arc.

They are aiming Cape Blanco at the Ecilpse/F+G savel beg/gold cup. St Nick Cornation/King George. I guess the Prince of Wales and then maybe a mid season break and back for the autumn
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 4:19 PM BST
Well given he has to win at least two group 1's in England first i agree, he needs to step up, that was a dismal excuse of a group 1 race.

If he wins the POW and KG then what else do you have?

Of course we have all seen horses dissapoint when the hype is at fever pitch, it could all go to ****, no doubt.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 4:22 PM BST
You dont buy a horse that wins two Cox Plates and comes third untested with the top weight in a Melbourne Cup to run in third rate group 1 races do you?
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 4:30 PM BST
they have bought him to breed from I thought ? He'll have one season racing and then off to the paddocks ??
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 4:31 PM BST
or is he a gelding ?
Report EastLower Gooner May 22, 2011 4:32 PM BST
Its only his 2nd race. besides coolmore dont care. of course they'd like to beat top horses but its a group1 win to name. job done. wont be the last time this season where he scares off the opposition. The Irish Champion Stakes could easily be just like today minus campanologist.
Report getinthere10 May 22, 2011 4:33 PM BST
it was coolmore bought so you think i dont know why your crying to have the horse run in england for
Report EastLower Gooner May 22, 2011 4:34 PM BST
Quite happy with my Classic bet. Aidan's been trying to win that for ages. Thrown all the big guns at it. Time for this fella to have a go and its there for the taking this year. There are no older dirt horses to trouble him...none. and he's got an angle on all the 3year olds thanks to Master Of Hounds. Wonder how far So You Think would thrash MOH? pretty far imo.
Report dtamutants May 22, 2011 4:35 PM BST
No he's definitely a stallion. He'll just race one season
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 4:40 PM BST
Force, im just going on past history/results when I say the Arc comes secondary for Aidan O'Brien. The same can be said for the Breeders Cup. He is more interested in winning the UK/Ireland Group1's first and foremost, this is backed up by his strike rate.

SYT though is possibly the best of the lot so he may target different races ..
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 4:50 PM BST
I understand that but if you want a premium stud fee you need to test the big races and succeed i would think, there is always the Japan Cup and Dubai also to consider if they wanted.

Some people still think hes a chance to come back and run in the Cox Plate again but i doubt it, why would you do that when the Arc is a short trip away?

I just cant see them running two more group 1's in England then shutting up shop.

I bloody hope not anyway!Shocked
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 4:55 PM BST
He'll run again after Royal Ascot, for sure.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 4:58 PM BST
Not much point paying $30/40 odd million for a gelding i would think! [;)]

Anyway from what i understand Geldings are not allowed in The Arc, which is another clue he may well run IMHO.
Report flyingbolt May 22, 2011 5:05 PM BST
The Champion Stakes is an alternative to the Arc. I hope he goes to France though.
Report unclepuncle May 22, 2011 5:47 PM BST
He was 1/7 and won by 4L from a horse who was beaten 6L by Dandino last time out - whoopee dooConfused
Report Tavaris Jackson May 22, 2011 5:49 PM BST
Why on earth would you think that the Arc is a secondary target for O'Brien/Coolmore sintonian?

When fit he always runs his best horses there.
Report topweight May 22, 2011 5:51 PM BST
I think that after he beats Planteur in the POW, the natural next race will be the KG (aob has used this route before with Dylan Thomas & Duke Of Marmalade)then the Irish Champ, and finally the Arc. By the way Cryoftruth, i think that SYT's pacemaker for the KG and ARC.[;)]
Report topweight May 22, 2011 5:52 PM BST
^^^^^^^^will end up being Await The Dawn[;)]
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 6:11 PM BST
Tavaris, just because he runs his best horses there it doesn't mean they are targeted for the race. Look at his strike rate in the Arc vs the number of runners, ditto for the Breeders Cup.

He will prime his horses for the Uk/Ireland races first and then send them aborad later in the season, if they are still fit and well.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 6:19 PM BST
basically, it is an afterthought. Avoid his Breeders Cup runners like the plague.

SYT however is different given his talent and price tag.
Report mightymoyes May 22, 2011 6:19 PM BST
that may have been the case previosuly but his team of older horses this year is the strongest hes ever had.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 6:21 PM BST
Lets face it, the bookies are not fooled by Coolmores games, the odds have been smashed in already for the Arc and any other race where a horse may (or may not) show up against him.

Bring it on.[;)]
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 6:23 PM BST
yes Moyes, but care to pick which one is his Arc runner ? Could be one of five !
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 6:28 PM BST
Worforce dodged him, Canford Cliffs may well of been lucky to dodge him, Await the Sunrise or whatever its name is chickened out...............Lets get this party started O'Brien!
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 6:36 PM BST
The trainer is picking  and choosing the Group races, Force. This is because as we know he has an abundance of talent in the 10f-12f division of Colts. He wants all of them to win Group 1's this season so I wouldn't be surpsied if there is more dodging to come.

Await The Dawn, for example, has not had a try at Group 1 level yet, but he sure as hell looks good enough, so they will probably win the G2 Hardwicke at Ascot before coming back a month later for the King George IV, imo.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 6:45 PM BST
Obrien is one lucky prick IMO, he can scare off just about any opposition with SYT and pick off most other races with his other runners.

I dont give a **** what he dose raely as im greened up on every possible race with SYT, i didnt bet these two so far as i dont bet odds on on any race.

Im keen for a win, any win in any race suits me fine from now on.
Report mightymoyes May 22, 2011 6:56 PM BST
whys he a lucky prick if other trainers are gutless?
Report hippie May 22, 2011 7:02 PM BST
AOB has a set pattern for this type of horse (i.e. Duke of Marmalade, Dylan Thomas) - Prince of Wales, King George, International (possible clash with Frankel) then Arc. Dylan Thomas also took in the Irish Champion stakes so that's another option.
Report ForceMajeure May 22, 2011 7:21 PM BST
"whys he a lucky prick if other trainers are gutless?"

I guess hes lucky BECAUSE other trainers are gutless, if people dont want to have a ticket in the lucky dip your in all the better for you.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 8:30 PM BST
I wouldn't read to much into other trainers being gutless just yet,as it is only May.

Workforce will give him a proper test WHEN they meet.

In Ireland there is no opposition for him.
Report A_T May 22, 2011 9:17 PM BST
Reserve judgment until it wins a proper race over here.
Report jonibake May 23, 2011 8:19 AM BST
130? That's stretching isnt it? He beat Campanologist less than Dandino did. Ran to his normal 126 I thought. Bigger tests lie ahead.
Report Sandown May 23, 2011 2:26 PM BST
How can anyone rate the form from a race where the Top Speed figure was just 43? That means that any horse rated 43 or above could have run the race in the same time.That's most horses in training. How is it possible to say that SYT ran to 130 or C ran to 126? It was a falsely run race and all that can be said is that SYT quickened like a top class horse. It was a G1 race in name only.We know no more than we did before the race about just how good SYT is.
Report Figgis May 23, 2011 4:31 PM BST

Don't you think that Topspeed figure is well wide of the mark? I'm sure there was a huge difference between the straight and round course allowances yesterday, possibly partly because of the wind but more than likely due to the constant rail movement that goes on there. I agree with you, though, that it was well below Group 1 standard, more like a Listed/Group 3 race by my figures, with Famous Name well below his best. Even so, it does appear that SYT would be up to winning a proper Group 1 when he gets the chance and on the plus side he's yet to have a real race this year. On the negative side, at the age of 5 it will be interesting to see if he's still in form by the time of the Arc, if he takes in some more competitive Group 1s during the summer.
Report Sandown May 23, 2011 4:45 PM BST

I have the final time rating higher too but I used TS to make the point because its common currency. Even on my figures the point would be made. The difference in allowance is also a consideration but even on projected formula it doesn't come out G1. But, the actual split for the last 3f was top class and even if I didn't have the Australian form to go on, that would tell me that this is a G1 horse. I was just trying to make the point re. the inadequacy of making collateral rankings in slowly run races - relevant to Carlton House, too, of course.

Incidentally, how do you rate Misty For Me? That looks like a good performance which comes out at 115 actual not projected.
Report troy71 May 23, 2011 4:45 PM BST
surely this must go for the eclipse, after the prince of wales , i think sandown would be perfect for him!!!
Report Figgis May 23, 2011 5:18 PM BST
Yes, I agree entirely about collateral form ratings in those kind of races. As for Misty For Me, I don't use the official scale, but I would say it was around 7lbs short of an average Oaks winning figure. I have Together as running 5lbs worse than in the Guineas. Maybe MFM will improve again but I don't rate it as much of an improvement on her Boussac win.
Report ForceMajeure May 23, 2011 5:27 PM BST
The only risk i see with these soft group 1's is that SYT gets lulled into a pattern of not performing to his best when the true test is applied, i actually hope his next race is not dodged by the main contenders as has been the case so far.

Ratings from these types of non event group 1's are irrelevant IMO.
Report cryoftruth May 23, 2011 6:36 PM BST
Its not a long time between Royal ascot and the Eclipse - less than 3 weeks I think.

I would guess he is more likely to go for the King George than the Eclipse.

I saw the stuff about So You Think going back in trip to a mile. No doubt the chat about speed and various sprint entries will follow. However the fact is he damn near stayed 16 furlongs, so 12 would be fine.

I would personally be a layer for the ERclipse but not for very much!
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 29, 2011 12:38 AM BST
Around 4/5 looks ridiclous good value does it not for Prince of Wales. Workforce won't show and Planteur looks the only one to beat. May have to invest finally big time in him.Laugh
Report unclepuncle June 15, 2011 3:53 PM BST
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle June 15, 2011 4:12 PM BST
Aidan O Brien like any father taking the pressure of his son.

Joseph O Brien was shocking. He couldn't do his job pacemaking the horse was fresh and then totally cut off SYT on when he went to the front.

I am for certain Mr Magnier will be screaming at Aidan for letting his son at this moment but i am sure tempers will fall and they try just say "thats racing".

His son is certainly the villian in this piece. I actually like him to step back down to the Mile he clearly needs a very quickly run 10f to settle and maybe a mile could be a option.

Disappointed now but in reflection i say its just a wee blip on his career.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle August 30, 2011 2:04 PM BST
Arc back on the agenda according to Dato Tan.

Since Pour Moi is gone.

Report ForceMajeure August 30, 2011 2:21 PM BST
I doubt he was ever really off the agenda, at least we have all been able to load up at generous prices in the double figures. I really cant see SYT coming to Australia for the cox plate, i have no idea why they would want to go that route unless they thought he was not a chance in the ARC, eg: if he lost this weekend and/or the ARC opposition looked really tough.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle September 15, 2011 2:01 PM BST
Near 5 months after original post and so many big prices gone.

SYT is back in the raceCry
Report Authorized September 15, 2011 11:38 PM BST
This horse is an incredible value bet for the Arc at 5/1 now he's been given the go-ahead. This season he's been odds on every race and now we have an ew price for a horse that's only been unplaced once in 17 races. He's the highest rated horse on Racing Post ratings and although he's unproven at the trip, being by High Chaparral, there's every chance he'll get it.
Report InTheBath September 16, 2011 7:13 PM BST
Authorized - I started writing a response to your post along the lines that SYT may well not turn up in the Arc because of the ground.  O'Brien stated on Tuesday that his intended target is the Arc, but with 'ground permitting' (presumably a reference to his preferred good ground). There is a lot said, and perhaps assumed, about the prevailing ground conditions at Longchamp in early October; it is an often held view that the ground gets soft. 
This prompted some research into the going in recent years and for the record the ground conditions at Longchamp at the start of racing on Arc day are described as follows:

2010 - Very Soft
2009 - Good
2008 - Good-to-Soft
2007 - Good-to-Soft
2006 - Good
2005 - Good-to-Soft
2004 - Good
2003 - 'Holding'
2002 - Good
2001 - 'Holding'
2000 - Good

I was pleasantly surprised to see how many references to 'good' (even if some are 'good-to-soft') there are in this list.  I do not think they will run SYT if the ground is soft.  Good-to-soft may well be OK.
Therefore, I am now more positive about his prospects of running, but it is not a certainty.  The price of 5/1 still has that factored into it.  Let's hope and pray there is not too much rain before Arc day!
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539