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TAPK
29 Mar 11 15:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Mar 11
| Topic/replies: 9,104 | Blogger: TAPK's blog
I maybe the King of Ante-Post betting elsewhere but i"m just another nobody on here,being a naturally modest sort of person i will let my horses do the talking!
My biggest wager this year is on MEMORY for the 1000gns at 16/1,my only concern is if Richard Hughes tries to be clever as there are some stoutly bred fillies who will be staying on well up the hill,Memory will have too much speed for all of them if ridden correctly.
My second biggest Ante-Post wager is on SEVILLE for the Derby,he has the form in the book,looks like a Gallileo should unlike Frankel who wouldn"t look out of place in Mary Shelleys Novel,Seville will come into his own once he gets a trip in excess of 1/4m which is where he"ll start, 16/1 is the biggest price i have managed to get on him,dissapointing for me!
My next wager is on TAQLEED for Saturdays Lincoln at 20/1,16/1 and 14/1 and its beginning to look like a massive public gamble is under way,at this rate i can see him going off an 11/4fav,my philosophy has always been to minimise losses so i will certainly be laying the horse to cover my stake at 5/1. I have just got back from walking the course and it was being heavily watered at 1pm,the going should hopefully be just on the soft side of good as there was plenty of give underfoot,should that be the case Richard Hills will only have to point and shoot to win,it wont matter to Taqleed what side he"s drawn as he should make all and win convincingly! We"ll see!
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Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 4:57 AM BST
They both have the same timeform rating, why would you think Workforce would have +5 lenghts on SYT?

Ive heard some BS on this forum lately,

"Some handicapper from Australia"
"Keeps losing as favourite"
"wouldnt be favourite in a group 3 let alone the Arc"
"Was winning Caulfield Cups"

Strange thing is i have not heard anyone on here say they are laying him in any race bar myself who is laying him off at 4's and 5's after betting 9,8,7,6's on the Arc.

He of course may or amy not run in the Arc, I actually have full respect for Frankel and Workforce etc and would love nothing better than to see SYT tested against quality opposition.

The facts of the matter are that Australia sends it best horses over to England, and pillage and plunders the big races (and bookies) year after year, Whilst England send their best horses to Australia each year for the Caulfield/Melbourne Cups etc and never win.

Dermot Weld being the exception to the rule.......but hes Irish. Ok this year is a bit ifferent as SYT was bought by connections, but you get the drift.

I predict next year we will send some handicapper over to England that keeps losing as favourite and wouldnt be favourite in a group 3 let alone the arc and only wins Caulfield Cups.................Black Caviar.[;)]
Report TAPK May 24, 2011 8:52 AM BST
Force,when Ryan Moore got off SO YOU THINK,what do you think the first thing Aidan would have said to him is? Will he beat WORKFORCE? Ryans response,not a prayer over 11/2m and there lies the problem,Aidan will campaign him over 1m -11/4m now,but if he wants to be recognised as a champion he will have to run in the Arc,simple as that!For someone who rates the horse why are you laying him off so early,this 'Incredible' beast will surely be cut to 2/1fav for the Arc after he's mopped up all our Group 1's en-route and as for Timeforms ratings,lets just say they are an excitable bunch!Keep the faith though,he can only tip-toe around for so long before he gets his toes trod on!
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 9:09 AM BST
So far horses have been dodging SYT as far as i can see, not the other way round, the Arc distance is not too far different from the Cox plate which he has won twice, i dont see an issue at that distance.

He can run out 3200 metres if need be but that as we now know from the Melbourne Cup is not ideal.

Agreed that timeform can be questionable, with Frankel at 142 given his lack of vesatilty seems a tad extreme IMHO.

I guess we will just have to wait for a real contest between Workforce and SYT and a few others to get a real handle on just how accurate the current ratings are.

I am more than happy to green up at 5's an 4's on the Arc being it is only May, anything can happen yet going forward given this is horseracing with all its risks.
Report sintonian May 24, 2011 9:21 AM BST
For what it's worth, I rate the horse, and plenty of other people do to. It is just a shame the two races he has contested so far (in Ireland) have been against weak oppostion.

I dont think connections of Workforce ran scared of SYT, they are just mindful of the fact that having a hard race in May can potentially kibosh the whole season.
Report TAPK May 24, 2011 9:27 AM BST
Rest assured Force,nothings dodging SO YOU THINK as you put it,the 2 races he's won in Ireland have a history of small fields and the Tattersalls Gold Cup really is the weakest/least important Group 1 of the year,it looks like your horse is going to Royal Ascot for the POW,on a line through my 2, 1/2m horses who i'm confident will beat yours.WORKFORCE and SNOW FAIRY,lets hope the French colt PLANTEUR turns up,he will give him a race,lets not forget Aidan has horses of his own who are no pushover but will he run them against the 'Beast',JAN VERMEER,still a dark horse 4yo and of course the Derby winner SEVILLE,there's also ST NICHOLAS ABBEY,plenty to look forward too.
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 9:39 AM BST
OK, we will have to wait and see, nothing more to say at this stage i guess.

Must admit i dont know much about the English horses so far as i havnt seen any run bar Frankel, so i wont comment further at this stage.
Report TAPK May 24, 2011 10:07 AM BST
Force,make sure you get to see the 7,40pm from Sandown Park on Thursday night,The best horse in Europe makes his seasonal debut,he will have to concede any opposition 7lb but its just a pipeopener for him,its a chance to see just what a beast we have lined up waiting to put this SO YOU THINK to the sword.Campanologist is entered but he took the easy route to Ireland![;)]
Report duncan idaho May 24, 2011 10:19 AM BST
''Whilst England send their best horses to Australia each year''

Laugh we send handicappers down there....not sure we've ever sent anything that would be considered in the top 12 in Europe for Melbourne/Caulfield, Vintage Crop aside
Report duncan idaho May 24, 2011 10:20 AM BST
'The facts of the matter are that Australia sends it best horses over to England, and plunders the big races year after year, Whilst England send their best horses to Australia each year for the Caulfield/Melbourne Cups etc and never win.'

Laugh we send handicappers down there....not sure we've ever sent anything that would be considered in the top 12 in Europe for Melbourne/Caulfield, Vintage Crop aside
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 10:24 AM BST
You send your best 2 mile horses down here and they get whipped.......the jockeys you send arnt much good either BTW. [;)]
Report Graeme83 May 24, 2011 10:27 AM BST
ForceMajeure, you're talking a lot of pish. Laying off a horse you think is nailed on, and thinking that the Australians have better horses. Do me a favour. If you think Holberg and Manighar are top banana, then you'd have to get someone to examine your melon. After saying making your comment about the best English based horses being sent down under, you then say you don't know anything about English races. You're like one of these background people in home & away who just stands there and doesn't have a clue what's going on.
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 11:17 AM BST
"admit i dont know much about the English horses so far as i havnt seen any run bar Frankel"

You must have a reading problem Graeme, i didnt say anything about not knowing about English races, i clean up betting the Aussie horses each year over in England.

OK, so you waste your time and send over your worst 2 milers to contest the worlds richest two mile handicap.......do you honestly believe that?
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 11:19 AM BST
BTW i live about two miles away from "Summer Bay", you may well have spotted me at some time in a background shot!Laugh
Report Graeme83 May 24, 2011 12:00 PM BST
"You must have a reading problem Graeme"

"OK, so you waste your time and send over your worst 2 milers to contest the worlds richest two mile handicap.......do you honestly believe that? "


[>o][:x]
Report sintonian May 24, 2011 2:59 PM BST
I dont understand the bashing of Aussie racing, it is top class and the prize money is infinitely better than ours.

That said, we dont send many top class horses over, probably due to the travel and quarantine stuff, but that would work both ways.
Report jonibake May 24, 2011 3:10 PM BST
Not sure that he didnt start it tho Sint!
Report ForceMajeure May 24, 2011 3:35 PM BST
I will say no more on the matter........back to finding some ante post winners.Cool
Report Graeme83 May 24, 2011 5:28 PM BST
Nothing wrong with a bit of banter. I don't have an ego, and my skin is usually thicker than the contents of my head. I'd need a bit more evidence to support any claim from anyone that Australian racing stacks up to whats on offer over here. They have good sprinters, i think that's established. However, what have they had over 8-12f ?
Report Rondetto May 25, 2011 11:17 AM BST
Great to see you are in good form lads and not a baseball bat in sight.Laugh

If I had been next to one poster when I called So You Think a boat I may well have been in receipt of a hard whack with one.

Refreshing to see at least some of you agree that he hasn't had a real test yet and this talk of winning King George's is pie in the sky stuff.

He's obviously very useful in his own sphere but he gives me the distinct impression he'd find very little if coming up against something like Workforce who has a good turn of foot.


Aiden O'Brien said "We have never seen the likes of him" WTF is the man talking about? Even the lesser lights like Fame and Glory have achieved more than this fellow to date and he wouldn't be in their top 10 of past champions.

Usually someone with AOB's record would have my full respect but this man I have no time for.

Recently he sent St Nicholas Abbey for a listed race at the Curragh. He went off at 4/11 with fortunes riding on him and the punters had no chance, none of which was mines.

The horse never ran a message, must have been 6 gallops short of race fitness and not a word of warning from Ballydoyle. I heard more than a few people saying the horse had gone completely was a waste of time continuing and he should be retired to stud.

Little wonder having finished 4 lengths behind a horse who wouldn't get a job as a pacemaker in a Group race.

4 weeks later he turns out again up in class and wins by 9 lengths and looks like a Gay Future clone has stepped into his shoes.

The came the 2000 Guineas. Roderick O'Conner looked so bad they were saying he hadn't trained on and looked awful in his coat. He gets tailed off under cosh flying hitting fresh air no doubt and goes back to Ireland leaving a lot of very good judges thinking he has very little future as a 3 year old.

Then he comes out seemingly unfancied, reverses a 30 plus length deficit and wins the 2000 Guineas.

I can only assume they gave up on the 2000 Guineas and used it as a prep race for the Irish equivalent. Wouldn't be so bad if he had shown something at Newmarket but his performance was so bad he wouldn't have won a Hamilton seller.

So if anyone thinks Seville has no chance of reversing places with Carlton House think again. he could reverse form by 20 lengths the way AOB trains them and most likely will.

The Dante may seem like an important race to your average punter to AOB its a nothing race and just a tool to set things up for the real thing.

I'll still have a few quid on Natanile if he trurns up but major major bet has got to be Seville. With a man in charge that Arthur Daly, Steptoe and Delboy combined wouldn't have patch on you can bet there's more than a good chance he's already past the post.
Report TAPK May 25, 2011 1:43 PM BST
Excellent stuff as always Rondetto,dont tell everyone SEVILLES past the post though,i'm still snaffling the 8's on a daily basis! Now then what about the plans for WORKFORCE,we all know if he's fit he wins tomorrow but then what? Do you think SMS has aspirations for a sneaky pop at SO YOU THINK in the POW or even do a Harbinger and stroll around Ascots 11/2m for a pre King George excercise or is this purely a pre Eclipse C/D pipeopener?
Report jonibake May 25, 2011 3:31 PM BST
Well they definitely want a 10f Group 1 on his CV for stud and my guess is it will be the Eclipse. Another bonus of running him at Sandown tomorrow might be to give him some experience of the track plus uphill finish more likely to play to his strengths. Then King George, then Arc, then either Breeders Cup or stud. Not a horse that takes a lot of racing judged on last year.

Great post Rondo!
Report sintonian May 25, 2011 4:39 PM BST
Apparently WF worked at Sandown prior to his Arc win.
Report TAPK May 26, 2011 4:16 PM BST
It wont look good 'Schooling' a Derby/Arc winner in public tonight,if he gets beat a length by JAN VERMEER,looking burly fair enough so long as everything else is 10 lengths behind.I wouldn't put anyone off backing WORKFORCE at 6/4,if he's not straight enough to win this he shouldn't be running.Sir Michaels the sort of guy who tells you its going to rain on your barbecue just as you've splashed out on some cumberland sausage!
Report ForceMajeure May 27, 2011 5:38 PM BST
These are my thoughts about yesterdays race in which Workforce scraped home,


If SYT was in that race today he would have won 110%, BUT Workforce was not fully fit, IMHO SYT will likely peak before Workforce and would win any similar challenge with in the next meeting, in a third race from now i believe it would then be a fair fight between the two horses.

We can argue over what distances each horse has an advantage, and yes that would be a factor for sure on which one i would pick to win a certain race.
Report TAPK May 27, 2011 9:08 PM BST
Forcemajeure,'scraped' home is a slight exaggeration, just look at what the rest of the field did trying to close down a horse given way too much rope,admittedly POET winning an Eclipse is about as realistic as SO YOU THINK winning a Derby as a 3yo.I have been studying horses for over 25yrs and if SO YOU THINK beats WORKFORCE over 11/2m then my name isn"t 'The Ante-Post King' a 11/4m on fast ground and your horse would be favourite but my money would still be on WORKFORCE.
Bring it on eh?Grin
Report ForceMajeure May 28, 2011 11:21 AM BST
I was just being honest, normally when a horse "scrapes" home for a win when not in peek fitness and at a non ideal distance on a rain affected track (was raining if im not mistaken), that is a good sign of a class horse.

Plenty of mugs on the main forum appeared to be more than happy to lay him above $2 from what i saw.

Make no mistake, I believe he will be a force to be reckoned with in the next two to three races he runs.
Report sintonian May 28, 2011 11:23 AM BST
Yes I agree but i'd have my doubts about 10f in Group 1 company, particularly on quick going.

That said, im no even sure 10f is the optimum trip for SYT.
Report jair1970 May 28, 2011 12:11 PM BST
I think Workforce's connections were lucky the rains came for him and without his preferred going, he may have got a more 'tender' reintroduction.

It'd take a pretty special one to beat Workforce over 1m4f on any ground slower than good that's for sure.

1m2f or fast ground?  You've gotta take him on.
Report TAPK May 29, 2011 12:12 PM BST
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ol Sneaky draws let WORKFORCE take his chance in the POW at Royal Ascot as the Brigadier Gerard would have put him spot on for something about then,we'll see!My thoughts are geared towards the Derby again and i wait in anticipation for Aidan saying SEVILLE 'has always had the Derby as his main target' that will do for me!I took the 12's yesterday like a lemming over a cliff i am!
Report ForceMajeure May 29, 2011 2:01 PM BST
I would think SYT is primed for the 2,012 metres POW whilst workforce could well need another run to be at his best, seems connections are not targetting this race being as you can get around $6.00 and up for him.

Stranger things have happened though.
Report Rondetto May 30, 2011 1:04 PM BST
I was actually very impressed with Workforce. It's that ability and willingness to run on empty that separates the good horses to the really good ones and it's always good to know your fellow isn't going to lie down in a fight.

Be interesting to see where he goes next.

Can't see him going for the POW it doesn't have the prestige attached to it. The King George could be on the cards but SMS will be waiting to see how Carlton House fairs. Hopefully he or Workforce will shut up thise So You Think fans who are driving me nutsLaugh
Report brandyontherocks May 30, 2011 8:49 PM BST
Can't see him going for the POW it doesn't have the PRESTIGE attached to it??????????????????LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report ForceMajeure May 31, 2011 6:49 AM BST
Rondetto, writer (fiction) and comedian.

When hes not writing fiction on the betfair forum you can catch Rondetto's comedy act at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival.
Report Rondetto June 1, 2011 1:39 PM BST
What's this a gathering of village idiots? The Prince of Wales is nowhere near as prestigious  a race as the  The King George, so exactly what are you trying to say?

The very best very seldom run it and the very best like  Workforce will run there everytime in preference.

The King George is also worth twice as much to the winner.

Keep the insults down kids you may just bite off more than you can chew. Next time back up your insults with something concrete or keep your traps shut
Report brandyontherocks June 1, 2011 4:17 PM BST
not trying to insult you ron. but you had to be pulled up.

the prince of wales and king george are 2 very different races

to say the prince of wales at royal ascot is not a prestigious race and not contested by the best is very wide of the mark. FACT

the last 10 winners

fantastic light bt kalanisi
grandera.  also ran banks hill, nayef
nayef bt rakti, islington and falbrav
rakti also ran sulamani
azamour
ouija board
manduro bt dylan thomas
duke of marmalade
vision d'etat
byword bt twice over


hope this EVIDENCE helps.
Report sintonian June 2, 2011 11:33 AM BST
Stall 2 for Seve, TAP. Not good imo given he needs to in the front pack.
Report TAPK June 3, 2011 11:33 PM BST
He could go out and make all from Box 2 Sintonian,i prefer his draw to Carlton Houses anyway,i cant see the race being ruined from lack of pace so we'll see tomorrow if SEVILLE is as good as i think.
Report Rondetto June 4, 2011 10:01 AM BST
I had a rush of blood to the head and backed Masked Marvel when I found out Naathaniel wasn't running.

Although I still fancy Seville MM would be one helluva pay day if he were to win.

Maybe Carlton House is a league above them all but there's no concrete evidence to support that fact nor is there anything I can get overly excited about. You need only look at the views on Sportinglife racing news and all the leading fancies are being tipped as the winner.

The thing I liked about Masked Marvel was with 2f to run 4 of the 5 runners were still going well but William Buick gave him a squeeze and he had them all on the stretch by the furlong marker. Masked Marvel looked like he was just starting to get into top gear with lots more to come when the race was over. An extra furlong and a strong gallop may just be what he's been waiting for.

I think I'm on to something hereLaughLaughSo much so I'm backing him again.

1. Masked Marvel

2. Seville

3. Carlton House

4. Native Khan
Report jonibake June 4, 2011 2:38 PM BST
If you take MM out I have the same 1,2,3. In fact I have done that tricast for fun. Couldnt resist a little bit of CH when he drifted this morning and seeing as I am strong on the other two. Just dont want Recital or PM!
Report jonibake June 4, 2011 2:39 PM BST
If you take MM out I have the same 1,2,3. In fact I have done that tricast for fun. Couldnt resist a little bit of CH when he drifted this morning and seeing as I am strong on the other two. Just dont want Recital or PM!
Report Graeme83 June 4, 2011 3:29 PM BST
If i put 2 bob on a 1,2,3, it would be 1. Pour Moi 2. Native Khan 3. Seville
Report sintonian June 4, 2011 4:59 PM BST
Seville very disappointing there in 10th. Reckon he wants a good cut in the ground like Recital though.
Report ForceMajeure June 4, 2011 5:27 PM BST
Took the $6.00 for Pour Moi in the Arc ATM, got to be lay of the month against SYT and Workforce in the market.
Report jonibake June 4, 2011 6:52 PM BST
Bad result for me but best horse won. Felicitations les Francais! Will take the opportunity whilst on TAPK's page to state that last years Royal Lodge field doesnt look quite so bad now does it?[;)]
Report ForceMajeure June 9, 2011 1:16 PM BST
Not much going on here?, I take it all the experts are rebuilding their banks after such dismal tipping lately.[;)]

BTW i have been busy with another plunge on the two rubbish Australian horses racing in the UK next week.Laugh
Report ForceMajeure June 14, 2011 1:51 PM BST
"BTW i have been busy with another plunge on the two rubbish Australian horses racing in the UK next week"

Star Witness to win the king stand stakes today, if not im greened up anyway on the whole race.........WIN.

SYT to win the Prince of wales Tomorrow, if not im greened up anyway on the whole race.........WIN.

Hinchinbrook or Star Witness to win the Golden Jubilee Stks on 18/6/11, if not im greened up anyway on the whole race.........WIN.

Summary of the above.......WIN WIN WIN.[;)]
Report Graeme83 June 14, 2011 2:23 PM BST
I wouldn't want to see the Ozzys go to England and not win anything. I hope Star Witness wins. No bet.
Report ForceMajeure June 14, 2011 2:43 PM BST
The rumour on the big board is that someone heard a stable hand who knows a jockey who is a second cousin of one of their brothers best mates say Star Witness has not travelled well so may not be 100%, but ive heard that one before.[;)]
Report TAPK June 15, 2011 1:38 PM BST
Good luck with your horse today 'Force',if he can beat Twice Over by 3 lengths he'll be a threat to Workforce,i personally think if the real Twice Over turns up he'll make So you think,think!
Report ForceMajeure June 15, 2011 2:30 PM BST
Cheers, yes its do or die time, this is not a walk in the park IMO, im pretty excited about this race.

Adan has been rambling on for weeks now and hes doing my head in, hoping SYT lives up to expectations today.
Report Graeme83 June 15, 2011 2:56 PM BST
You'll find that it will be a walk in the park. Rewilding isn't a 10f horse, and Twice Over has stopped firing. Plantuer is more of a 12f type. He was easily beaten by Snow fairy over 10f. He may have beaten Sarafina, but that doesn't count for a great deal at this stage. I just don't see anything being a challenge here.
Report Rondetto June 16, 2011 6:31 AM BST
Now there's a post one would wish he had never madeLaugh 2 overrated horses Goldikova and So You Think firmly put in their place won't have done my polarity and favours.

Never mind Graeme I gotta horse for tomorrow the yard expect to go very close. Double figures at the moment..Name to follow!!!!.[;)]
Report ForceMajeure June 16, 2011 7:38 AM BST
Well here is your moment in the sun Rondetto, make the most of it while you can is my advice.

I think we all know what went down yesterday was a clear failure on Aidan O'Brien's part as a trainer and BS hype master of the highest order.

I admit i feel embarrassed to have been part of this circus that is the SYT show with O'Brien as the ringmaster and head clown.

I am perfectly happy to be a lowly Muppet in my own Muppet show rather than an unwilling participant of the O'Brien sideshow circus act.

I admit im now judging SYT on the merits of O'Brien rather than just the horse in any further calculations of how he will perform. This is not something i have ever had to do in Australia BTW, it is quite a foreign thought process to me.
Report Graeme83 June 16, 2011 11:00 AM BST
Ron i didn't back SYT at those odds. I don't regret my post though, simply because i never saw Rewilding as a 10f horse. He even won at 15f, and avoided the Dubai classic(10f) to run in the Dubai 12f race. I had CC to beat Goldi, despite wanting her to win.
Report Rondetto June 17, 2011 10:29 AM BST
I think all things considered SYT has done well. He's a beast of a horse ok but has that typical schoolyard bully about him. They look brilliant when racing within their comfort zone but when put under pressure they become cumbersome and their own worse emenemy. Of course you have to get them under pressure and there aren't many around who could.

Rewilding isn't the best guide to what See You Thinks limits are. He looked a certainty before the Leger only to disappoint so either he is very good or See You Think is very ordinary.

I'd tend to side with the former but either way I don't see the Kiwi being a danger to the real top dogs like the last two Derby winners.

About that horse for today I certainly wouldn't have pucked it out. Won it's only race but the next 4 home were all beat. What I was told from a usually reliable sourse is the TD was asked last week how he thought his team would do and he said his best chance of a winner was Switcher. He was 17 on the machine now 10.5 and there was some 12/1 available but that has now gone. You can still get some 10/1 EW which ain't so bad. As I say I couldn't have dug this one out with a shovel but these young horses improve very fast and the way the team has been going it's worth a few bob EW.

I'm going to give Gordon's big Antepost bet another chance. 8/1 seems huge about Memory who was so well fancied in the 1000 Guineas only to be left in the stalls. The Hannon team have done really well with Strong Suit especially who bounced right back to his best. Hope Memory can do the same.

G/L all have a winning day
Report Graeme83 June 17, 2011 11:19 AM BST
^^^Rond what was that double figure horse you were mentioning yesterday. I probably won't back it, but it would be interesting to watch out for it. They're saying Memory needs faster ground. That's why she's drifted out to 8 or 9. I'm going to maybe take a look at nathaniel.
Report Graeme83 June 17, 2011 11:21 AM BST
Oh yeah i might look in to Courageous for the last race as well.
Report Rondetto June 25, 2011 5:42 AM BST
I hear the building trade is in a slump so Gord is out with the horse and cart collecting rags and giving away balloons so he can have a massive bet on Workforce for the Eclipse.Laugh
Report sintonian June 25, 2011 9:52 AM BST
He'll be hoping Seville can redeem himself tomorrow in the Irish Derby. The ground is now Soft which makes things interesting.
Report jonibake June 25, 2011 1:47 PM BST
He has an awful lot to prove after a hugely disappointing season so far........Seville I mean not TAPK (although...)

I always like a really good reason to want to back a horse that has been beaten fairly by another horse. Treasure Beach is underated I think. Ok so he couldnt live with the Wonderhorse over an inadequate trip last year but that trouncing had people thinking he wasnt up to much. His Chester Vase win looks all the better since Nathaniels win at Ascot and I thought he outstayed Carlton House after looking likely to be swamped by that rival 2 out. The ground is an unknown but I think he will get the trip better than the fav and, at the prices, is the one to beat imo.
Report sintonian June 25, 2011 4:32 PM BST
I just get the sneaking suspicion Seville could run his best race of the season so far tomorrow. He had a poor draw at Epsom, and if it is true that he did not handle the track, then he could spring a surprise. Pisco Sour finished 1 placed ahead of Sevvy at Epsom in 10th, but we know he can beat that horse (Dante) and he has come out and won at Ascot since so perhaps both horses just hated Epsom.

I wont be backing him myself but hope he does win as it would put right near the top of the leaderboard in the TTF comp.
Report jonibake June 26, 2011 7:14 PM BST
Nice to get one right occasionally. Great run from Seville also - bounced right back.
Report Baxta June 27, 2011 8:10 AM BST
Forgive the run in the Dante, forgive the run in the Derby, forgive yesterdays run...
Jesus, however many chances are people gonna give this Seville...
Very expensive horse to follow.
Report sintonian June 27, 2011 9:17 AM BST
what you talking about Baxta finishing 2nd in the Dante and Irish Derby is hardly a crime.

He is clearly not top class, though, over 12f on decent ground. Maybe he could win with soft conditions at that level but he will either need a step up in trip,possibly, or a drop in grade to win.
Report TAPK June 27, 2011 11:10 AM BST
Jonibake,well done for mugging my horse yesterday,my bets had 'insurance' on them!! My season is as good as ever by the way as you well know.I have been busy 'Gone Fishing' lately but i am looking forward to Saturdays Eclipse,i have noticed reading back through this thread that virtually every horse i mention is like putting the Kiss of death on them,not that i'm supersticious like! Come on SO YOU THINK!LaughLaugh
Report ForceMajeure June 27, 2011 11:31 AM BST
O'Brien is the kiss of death for SYT, please dont try and steal his thunder on this.

He cant even come up with a jockey FFS!...........laughing stock over here in Australia.
Report Graeme83 June 27, 2011 12:38 PM BST
Majeure you're talking a lot of rubbish. I'm not a fan of his either, but you just take the biscuit. What do you mean he can't come up with a jockey ?.....and a laughing stock ?...i very much doubt it. I think you're just angry and try and make yourself happier by pretending everyone else shares your delusional view. I think australians have better things to think about. A good jockey will be on board, that's all you need to know. You ain't guaranteed anything over here off the back of beating Australian cart horses.
Report ForceMajeure June 27, 2011 4:21 PM BST
"I think australians have better things to think about"

I agree, we tend to prefer thinking about......WINNERS, hence i dont waste much time on O'Brien anymore.

Good trainers stick with a winning horse/jockey combo, flip flopping jockeys around is not a strategy for winners.

At least my inbox has been quiet from his BS lately, he has gone very very quiet on the spruking front.

The only people angry im guessing are those that paid 30/40 million $ for a share in SYT at this point.Laugh
Report Graeme83 June 27, 2011 6:01 PM BST
It's clearly a good uncompliacted horse, so the jockey selection isn't a big deal. It will be a good jockey who knows what he's doing, and that's all that's needed. If its Seam Heff, then he's rode him before and works him at home. Only a moron would get patriotic over a bloody horse. The bloody thing was bred in NZ anyway.
Report Rondetto June 27, 2011 8:31 PM BST
A wee birdy says Fallon will ride SYT[:o] Even if he does his genius wont help

Well done Jonibake I wish I had your guts to have backed Treasure Beach. Could kick myself after watching my original Derby fancy Nathaniel hack up and boost the form as you rightly pointed out.

However I expect Workforce to put things right and further anger the poor mob that bought SYT and give Graeme and ForceMajuere another topic to rattle their gums aboutLaugh
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 11:01 AM BST
I won't be bumping my guns. I backed Workforce. My only concern is that he's out to 7/4. When i said a good jockey is all that's needed, i meant all that's needed to give the horse a good ride.
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 1:01 PM BST
He's now 15/8 which makes me suspicious. If you take this headline about a 40 grand punt on SYT to get him to evens, then there must have been more imaginery money to get him in to odds on. The cynical side of me thinks the bookies have heard a whisper about Workforce maybe not running, and are dragging out the usual lies to cover their tracks. Why would someone place 40 g's ante post, when they would get a better price after the 48 hour decs ?
Report sintonian June 28, 2011 3:27 PM BST
you think they have just made up this 40k bet then Graeme and posted it all over the racing press and websites ?
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 3:34 PM BST
Yes i think they've made it up. No fake ladbrokes betting slips on the bbc would make me believe otherwise. I think Workforce will be a NR, and this imaginery 40k is the excuse they are using to take cover and lower SYT's price. 8/11-4/5 for a horse who got beat by Rewilding against 15/82/1 for the Arc winner. What's more the bookies should refund Workforce bets, as it's looking like a dirty trick. Something isn't adding up.
Report ForceMajeure June 28, 2011 5:13 PM BST
"Something isn't adding up."

From what i read on this forum UK bookies wont take 40 pounds at evens let alone 40k!

Only an Aussie would be bold enough to bet 40k BTW on SYT at this time, maybe the bookies know/think he (SYT) wont run and were happy to oblige taking the bet?
Report ForceMajeure June 28, 2011 5:25 PM BST
If either SYT or Workforce dont show for this race it will only confirm my suspicions about the pi$$ weak state of racing in the UK.......and i use the term "racing" lightly.

Its a pity because there are so many good horses in the UK right now and the punter/spectator is getting a raw deal here IMO.

I hope i am proved spectacularly wrong on this.
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 5:41 PM BST
Majeure - are you an attention seeking Australian version of Adolf Hitler, or are you genuinely this thick ?
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 5:44 PM BST
No, infact can you explain to me what you mean when you said "Only an Aussie would be bold enough to bet 40k BTW on SYT at this time". Laugh
Report ForceMajeure June 28, 2011 6:35 PM BST
We are the worlds biggest gamblers (check the stats if you doubt me) I highly doubt some random guy in the UK decided he would put 40k on SYT when he woke up yesterday.

40k would most likely be bookie money from Australia, an Aussie punter OR connections of SYT in the know (the Malaysian part owner for example).

Nobody even blinks over here with a 40K bet on a horse, its pretty standard stuff, quite "bold" though by UK standards i would think.

Its pretty clear to me the prizemoney in many of these races is not significant enough for trainers to enter horses if they dont think they can outright win it, or better still win 1/2/3 by having most of the field in the race.

Sorry but i dont call this racing when the field is 5 or 6 horses and one trainer has about 4 of the horses in a group 1.
Report Graeme83 June 28, 2011 6:44 PM BST
You bring Australia in to everything, even gambling. Christ, the worlds biggest gamblers now. I can see you sitting there with a cork screw hat, a vest, the cans of castlemains four X and an accent like one of those convicts from Home and Away who Irene Roberts would sh@g. I don't think 40k is bold by standards over here, far from it. I don't know why you assume this.
Report jonibake June 28, 2011 11:48 PM BST
FM - If racing is so bad over here why do you watch it?

Worse still why do you waste your time writing about it?

I would rather watch Rolf Harris arm wrestle Dame Edna than watch Ozzie racing but the LAST thing I would even DREAM of doing is going on one of your forums to tell your people how dull I find it.

It wouldnt be so bad if you were even vaguely amusing but you are not. You are a terrible advert for your wonderful country.

This is a legitimate thread for people who love their racing - leave it.
Report jonibake June 28, 2011 11:55 PM BST
"Jonibake,well done for mugging my horse yesterday,my bets had 'insurance' on them!! My season is as good as ever by the way as you well know"

TAPK did you mistype? Surely you meant "over" not "ever"? [;)]

Seriously as Carly Simon once put it "nobody does it better" so I want to know - as a huge Workforce fan - do you think can he beat SYT over 10f on Saturday? I think he can but one HAS to worry about the drift in the market and the form of the stable. However, if SYT can't beat a 1m 4f horse like Rewilding, surely he will struggle against a horse with more class and speed?
Report TAPK June 29, 2011 12:36 PM BST
Joni,bit of a comedian now are we,you leave the funny stuff to Graeme/Goldikova!Laugh had me in stitches there.ForceMajeure is feeling the pressure but then again so am i.Workforce v So You Think is a cracker,i just hope both do turn up as Sir Michael will wait till the last minute to warn everyone the Champ wont turn up on 'iffy' ground,just to line the bookmakers pockets Ante-Post,its called pay back time when that happens. Johnny 'be good' Gosden is the master of it! Joni go back and read my 'Fishing' thread and tell me its over!Laugh
Report jonibake June 29, 2011 12:46 PM BST
Where is this thread Gord?
Report TAPK June 29, 2011 12:53 PM BST
LaughLaughYou are a funny guy Joni,you know where it is?
Report ForceMajeure June 29, 2011 12:55 PM BST
Speaking of fishing, looks like im off to the US forum thread as SYT is nominated for the breeders cup.Laugh[;)]

Before everyone gets realy upset you cant beat the 100's of years tradition and Royal Ascot for racing in the UK.

I expect the prizemoney will improve when the economy dose.
Report Graeme83 June 29, 2011 12:58 PM BST
Joni i'll send you a link to it. Don't give Gordon the excuse he wants to put it up. If his head gets any bigger someone will sponsor it. He's been wanting to put it up for ages.
Report TAPK June 29, 2011 1:02 PM BST
Goldi,not seen you on there for some time,get back you stubborn b*stard,i like your style.
[;)]
Report jonibake June 29, 2011 1:20 PM BST
Yes please Graeme - genuinely dont know what he's going on about.
Report Graeme83 June 29, 2011 1:27 PM BST
I sent you it earlier Joni. Check your Betfair messages, located at the top right corner of the page. I'll send it again.
Report jonibake June 29, 2011 1:53 PM BST
AH!!! Thanks mate!
Report ForceMajeure July 2, 2011 3:17 PM BST
He he he.[;)]
Report jonibake July 2, 2011 3:24 PM BST
What do you think of Aiden O Brien now then?
Report ForceMajeure July 2, 2011 3:33 PM BST
At least he learnt from his mistake, ill give him that, but SYT is still hanging quite badly these last two races, i dont think hes 100% all there yet.
Report sintonian July 3, 2011 9:39 AM BST
wd Force.
Report Slabster July 4, 2011 9:56 PM BST
While most are pondering you're Steward's Cup conundrum Gord, what do you make of Reliable Man's chances in the King George? Cool
Report TAPK July 4, 2011 10:19 PM BST
I think BARAAN is the better French prospect but he's not entered,i dont give RELIABLE MAN any chance at all Tommy,give me SNOW FAIRY e/w at 16/1.
Report Slabster July 4, 2011 10:55 PM BST
Snow Fairy is a doubtful runner. I too like Baraan and think he'll be well fancied for the Arc. Given that there is unlikely to be more than 5 or 6 runners I think the 14/1 that was available on Reliable Man was very generous as he's hard, imo anyway, to see out of the frame. St Nic will be the one to  beat, even if Rewilding runs, because the AOB horse has a serious engine. I hope Await The Dawn bypasses the race because I'd also see him as a serious danger to all Devil
Report ForceMajeure July 24, 2011 8:01 PM BST
So what happened to this thread?

Did everyone end up broke and on the dole or go on a long holday?Silly
Report jonibake August 14, 2011 10:34 PM BST
No - just moved elsewhere. Did you not get the invite?
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