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TAPK
29 Mar 11 15:41
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Date Joined: 23 Mar 11
| Topic/replies: 93 | Blogger: TAPK's blog
I maybe the King of Ante-Post betting elsewhere but i"m just another nobody on here,being a naturally modest sort of person i will let my horses do the talking!
My biggest wager this year is on MEMORY for the 1000gns at 16/1,my only concern is if Richard Hughes tries to be clever as there are some stoutly bred fillies who will be staying on well up the hill,Memory will have too much speed for all of them if ridden correctly.
My second biggest Ante-Post wager is on SEVILLE for the Derby,he has the form in the book,looks like a Gallileo should unlike Frankel who wouldn"t look out of place in Mary Shelleys Novel,Seville will come into his own once he gets a trip in excess of 1/4m which is where he"ll start, 16/1 is the biggest price i have managed to get on him,dissapointing for me!
My next wager is on TAQLEED for Saturdays Lincoln at 20/1,16/1 and 14/1 and its beginning to look like a massive public gamble is under way,at this rate i can see him going off an 11/4fav,my philosophy has always been to minimise losses so i will certainly be laying the horse to cover my stake at 5/1. I have just got back from walking the course and it was being heavily watered at 1pm,the going should hopefully be just on the soft side of good as there was plenty of give underfoot,should that be the case Richard Hills will only have to point and shoot to win,it wont matter to Taqleed what side he"s drawn as he should make all and win convincingly! We"ll see!

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Replies: 290
By:
duncan idaho
When: 29 Mar 11 17:05
Yes, win, lose or draw, i also felt Seville had to be worth a bet at 16s. Good luck on Saturday TAPK
By:
Graeme83
When: 29 Mar 11 18:47
I like Memory also and have been backing her with small bets for a while now. I also like Moonlight Cloud, much due to the trainers regard, but her run on unsuitable ground against Wootten Basset was a fair effort. I don't have a Derby fancy yet, although i did think Seville was one to watch out for since his effort in the RP. I've maybe had a little too much on the 1000 guineas. The one O'brien horse i'm interested in would be Fame & Glory for the Ascot Gold Cup. He's currently 6/1, and if he really was aimed at this race i think he would probably have a favs chance. Do you have an opinion of the GC for F&G. I have to say Gordon, you're never far away from a double price AP. Your backing of Seville is a positive for the horse.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Mar 11 18:58
memory fan also!

gl
By:
jonibake
When: 29 Mar 11 20:26
Good to hear your thoughts as always Gord. I too am on Seville but at 25's (ner ner ner ner ner!!!!)I also have a little bit on Nathaniel at 50's as was taken by him on debut and liked Johnny G's comments after his second, slightly dissapointing run. Can't be having all this hype about World Domination for a race so early in the season but have heard a really good word for another Cecil unraced 3 year old called Royal Applause.

In contrast to you I think Frankel wouldn't look out of place in the Mr Universe competition. What a specimin! He will carry all before him this season and you will have lots of humble pie to eat - promise me you will if he does. I have him at 10's for the Guineas and 14's for the Derby so am nicely positioned and I know it kills you that, as The Ante Post King, you missed that boat but nobody's perfect eh? I also have a saver on Wootton Bassett as I can't see him finishing outside the three if fit.

Will be looking out for Taqleed this weekend - best of luck with that.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 Mar 11 21:40
aint be funny folks but hope this thread does not turn into an aftertiming convention, well meaning or not.
By:
jonibake
When: 29 Mar 11 22:20
correct - you're not being funny.
By:
Graeme83
When: 29 Mar 11 22:47
"aint be funny folks but hope this thread does not turn into an aftertiming convention"




That coming from you Laugh Laugh
By:
downallstar
When: 29 Mar 11 23:23
Sint is def not an aftertimer, hth.
By:
TAPK
When: 30 Mar 11 07:57
Sintonian,i can see where you"re coming from as you dont know i have 20/1 about TAQLEED but he hasn"t won yet!! Had i mentioned having 3 figures e/w at 10/1 about JUNIOR winning the Kim Muir or that i had the same on WORKFORCE for last years Derby at 25/1 before he had even made his reappearance or even that i backed ALBERTAS RUN at 90"s and 75"s for the 2010 Ryanair! Now that would be Aftertiming and i can do that with the best of you! I can assure you this thread will be Ante-Post only,its what i do.Blush
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Mar 11 08:34
gl TAPK.

Workforce a fav for many after his big race triumphs last season. Looking forwards to seeing him win the Tattersalls Gold Cup first up this season. Stoutey won it a few years back with Notnowcato. And what a price he was [;)]LaughCool
By:
jonibake
When: 30 Mar 11 08:40
and you can still get 50's about Nathaniel I believe. (probably a good reason though!!).

I don't like getting too heavily involved in the first couple of weeks but have had a bit of interest on the jockeys title as I think Ryan Moore is too short. Hanagan surely won't be far away but the one I liked was Sylvestre de Sousa. He's 40's with PP and i think that is way too big. I worked with him last year and he is really clued up having been raised on the dirt tracks of Brazil. He has that clock in his head rather like Cauthen had and I think he is a champion in waiting. Won't be long before one of the big trainers recognises him. Maybe he won't win it this year but I doubt any other jockey will have many more rides than him.
By:
TAPK
When: 30 Mar 11 09:29
Joni,there"s more chance of Sylvestre (Machinist) de Souzas missus (Vicky) winning the Title!Laugh What interests me about NATHANIEL is the fact that he will improve for 11/2m and that he is closely related to SEVILLE,he also makes one question just whether FRANKEL is a 27lb better horse than PICTURE EDITOR,i certainly dont think so! 50/1 is a massive price for such a stoutly bred horse with form over inadequate trips.
By:
jonibake
When: 30 Mar 11 09:57
ur probably right - but he might give me a run for my money. As for PE verses Frankel - their last runs might suggest that there is quite a gap although I would tend to agree that PE is a lot better than he showed. In fact word is he is still Henry's Derby horse.
By:
TAPK
When: 31 Mar 11 08:24
It never ceases to amaze me how Bookmakers get away with cutting a horses price on a daily basis during the build up to a big race,during the past week or so TAQLEED has been cut a point every day and its across the board.Today he trades at 4/1,you can guarantee they will push their luck again and go 3/1 and that really is taking the P*ss,its not as though half the field have pulled out,its a competitive race and its got nothing to do with weight of money either,Joe Bloggs isn"t walking into Ladbrokes with a suitcase full of readies one minute then across the road to William Hills the next,then round the corner to Corals with the same amounts.John Gosden will tell you on Saturday that he is amazed at the price and that it should be 10/1 the field,thats just before he romps in of course!The Bookmakers will do exactly the same thing 5 minutes before the off in next weeks Grand National before BACKSTAGE completes the spring double! The moral of this story is Ante-Post betting pays,take a price early and play it to your advantage,if you can lay enough off to cover your stake do it,i have covered mine at 9/2 and a little 4/1,obviously the skill is to find the right horse in the 1st place,easier said than done!
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Mar 11 08:43
same price as Penitent last year now. He was 3/1 on morning of race but then drifted to 4/1 once the result of the consolation race was known.
By:
TAPK
When: 31 Mar 11 13:14
TAQLEED has been drawn 11 and thats perfect for anyone concerned,he"s got GUNNER LINDLEY to his right and PRIME EXHIBIT to his left both of which can race up with the pace.Should Richard Hills decide to chase one side or the other he will be perfectly placed to decide from there,however he has the horse under him to make all straight down the middle if he wants,my concern now though is the fact that the GUNNER made the cut,he was my 2nd choice for the race when i went through it a couple of months ago but was sure he would just miss out,having said that my marker horse for this race was the reliable CREDIT SWAP and a line through him still puts Taqleed just ahead of Gunner Lindley.
By:
zilzal1
When: 31 Mar 11 13:32
Lot of pace near the stands side rail TAPK, both Gunner Lindley (Will win a round course handicap this year imo) and Brae Hill will force and seeing as the stalls are stand side this year i can see it being the place to be. GL with Taqleed and you've got the nice prices.

Myself i think one of the Nicholls longer priced pair could cause a shock and ive just taken 33-1 the pair, Dream Lodge ran Lovelace to a neck 1st time last season and with Crays claim is off 91 here whilst Al Muheer had no run at Goodwood for the Golden Mile and has straight course big field form, one of them placed returns a nice profit.
By:
Rondetto
When: 31 Mar 11 13:59
20/1 or 4/1 I can't see any reason to back Taqleed. He was swamped like a tree by 5 horses after taking a couple of lengths out of the field in the Cambridgshire. He was taking a drop in trip that day after beating Sharaayeen over 10 furlongs , so it's unlikley he was beaten because he didn't stay.

Back at a mile he's up against Gunner Lindley who I recommended at 16/1 earlier and like Sharaayeen is trained by Barry Hills and is expected to turn out a much better horse than him.

He just kept improving last season and even if he doesn't get soft ground he'll be very hard to beat and trust me, by the end of the season will be giving this lot weight not getting it[;)].
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Mar 11 14:15
Tartan Gigha could get a nice toe into the race with plenty of front runners drawn nearby. I've not bet anything in this race just yet but he was desperately unlucky in his penultimate start in France where he got no run on the bridle and had to come wide late on.

Gunner Lindley was looking at too but deffo better with cut imo and Hills sent Huzzah for this last year which bombed out. Think i'll decide on the day once ground is known fo'sure!
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Mar 11 14:51
Coming round to Gunner Lindley now so agree with Rondetto .. C.O.C is saying current going is easy side of Good, potentially a little more rain to arrive.
By:
TAPK
When: 31 Mar 11 16:07
Zilzal,i wouldn"t put anyone off backing any one of Dandys 4 runners as we all know just how well handicapped they are,particularly AL MUHEER,his run splitting GIGANTICUS and REDFORD at Ascot one day stands out.I notice the clerk of the course has said he watered last week (12mm) and again on Monday(5mm),i was walking the straight mile on Tuesday at 1pm and it was being heavily watered,one of us obviously cant remember what day of the week it is![smiley:crazy]
By:
zilzal1
When: 31 Mar 11 16:14
He shouldnt be watering with that reading on the easy side of good

interesting about the Tuesday, unless he forgot that[;)]
By:
TAPK
When: 31 Mar 11 16:26
Rondetto, GUNNER LINDLEY is a handicapper and thats what he"ll always be,a touch of the PABLO"S at best,he"s had 12 runs and won twice,beating CHARLIE COOL in receipt of 10lbs tells me at the weights he is a contender here but thats all.TAQLEED on the other hand is a Group horse in the making,he has only ran 4 times and won half of them,his Cambridgeshire run was exceptional for one so inexperienced and if anything he will find this mile a touch on the short side,thats why he needs to go lickety split from the off and a bit more water will help,clocks tickin!
By:
Graeme83
When: 31 Mar 11 18:54
My only bet is on Taqleed at not so fancy prices. Running at 10f isn't much of an issue for me. Gosden won this with Expresso star who dropped back to win this on faster ground after having won at a longer and softer trip at Nottingham of all places. Gosden was urging caution for Taqleed backers a while ago, citing you need to be rated at least 95 to get it. Great advice from JG, who also happened to have a 87 rated horse entered. The Cambridgeshire gave him experience of a big field, so hopefully he finds the improvement necessary.
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Mar 11 21:18
Does anyone know the least exposed winner of this race ? I.E is 4 runs enough exp?
By:
TAPK
When: 31 Mar 11 21:28
Sintonian,"Streams of Gold" "Expresso star" and "Penitent" were all lightly raced 4yo"s who have won this,all of whom had winning form at 3,and since 2003 every horse to have won the great race at Doncaster was a 4yo! TAQLEED is defineately the lightest raced since Streams of Gold who won twice from 4 starts too,all were rated around the mid 90"s also.
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Mar 11 21:33
Yes thanks. Im aware of the need for being lightly raced etc, just wondered if 4 runs was too little, but it appears not, cheers.

e.g no horse has won the Cambridgshire, as far as I am aware, with less than 5 runs.
By:
the istabraq years
When: 01 Apr 11 11:30
I was very keen on Taqleed but im told he didnt go well at all in his last gallop this week, in fact he went badly.we ll see tmrw i guess
By:
Rondetto
When: 01 Apr 11 12:58
News like that travels faster than a speeding bullet. Someones been firing blanks all the 4/1 has gone. Still don't think he'll win though.

TAPK reckons Gunner Lindley is only a handicapper. I can only respond by saying they all are and that's why it's called the Lincoln Handicap.

I'll be laying Taqleed to cover my bet on GL.

On that note GL to you all[;)]
By:
TAPK
When: 01 Apr 11 15:06
Rondetto,if you think GUNNER LINDLEY will be giving weight to these by the end of the season then you think he"s a Group 3 horse,personally i think a rise of 9lb in 9 outings suggests he"s pretty exposed,these MEDICEAN sorts can flatter to decieve and i doubt very much he will be giving weight to TAQLEED ever!We"ll see what happens tomorrow,all things being equal there should only be 2 lengths between them!![;)]
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Apr 11 16:12
im still undecided, rain looks like it is not materialising.

I might go for a thoroughly exposed beast ..Shocked

Barry Hills says GL was working with RedJazz and Redwood before they went to Dubai, fwiw.
By:
TAPK
When: 01 Apr 11 20:10
I could get my heel in easily on Tuesday afternoon and the Sun has hardly been out since,i cant see the straight mile drying out that quick,i hope not anyway.[:(]
By:
town moor
When: 01 Apr 11 21:02
6 inch stilletoes?
By:
TAPK
When: 01 Apr 11 21:14
My favourite Orange Footjoys actually.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Apr 11 22:24
decided to have a bash on Eton Rifles Shocked and Prime Exhibit. gl All.
By:
town moor
When: 02 Apr 11 07:25
Rabbit or Tiger TAPK?
By:
Rondetto
When: 02 Apr 11 13:08
Withdrawn. More to the bad gallop report than meets the eye?

Joys of AP betting
By:
eric_morris
When: 02 Apr 11 13:18
Fer-fer-fer-fer-fer-ferk-me-B-B-Bertie-he's-out
By:
eric_morris
When: 02 Apr 11 13:19
U-u-unlucky
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