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dwm767
11 Dec 10 13:29
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Date Joined: 07 May 06
| Topic/replies: 1,068 | Blogger: dwm767's blog
Ladbrokes gone 2/1 Master Minded for the Champion Chase, non runner money back!!! Madness!?
Pause Switch to Standard View Ladbrokes 2/1 Master Minded...NRMB!?
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Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 6:19 PM GMT
I don't read Aintree form literally because many Cheltenham winners get turn over there by fresher horses. The reason this happens is there is such a short space between Cheltenham and Aintree. Punchestown doesn't suffer similar problems, many Cheltenham winners follow up at Punchestown. This is because there is a sufficient gap of 5-6 weeks meaning horses can be given a break and then wound up again for that meeting. 4-6 weeks is usually the perfect gap between races.

If you don't understand that then I don't know what else to say. You hadn't posted on this thread for two pages and pop up with a comment about Menorah and Aintree on here trying to make a literal comparison with Zeb and Master Minded at Punchestown.

You do realise Zeb had a race between Cheltenham and Punchestown so Master Minded was the fresher horse, there were no pre race concerns from Nicholls or Clive as Master Minded went off at 3/10. I hadn't even rated Zeb until that race, that was the race that made me take him seriously.

You don't seem capable of having a normal discussion, just pop into threads to make jokes to rile other posters and I can't remember you making a good discussion on here so it's understandable why you get that reaction.
Report Masterminded December 21, 2010 8:33 PM GMT
As for the fresher horse it's very silly to only look at horses runs (even though it is clear that Master Minded had ran a lot of horses ragged and it had probably taken a lot out of him). You haven't got a clue on what they have been doing at home. It takes a lot out of Paul Nicholls' horses going up that hill all season.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 8:47 PM GMT
My point was Zeb put it up to Master Minded and would have won if jumping the last. No horse had got near Master Minded that season until him. So it was clear Zeb was his biggest rival for last seasons Champ Chase and so it proved.

No concrete reason to think Master Minded will beat Zeb if he's in the form he was in March. I've watched the race plenty of times and Geraghty waits until after the last to ask Zeb a question and he goes on to win going away. Zeb seems to live with any pace set until Geraghty asks him to go.

Master Minded is a galloper and hence likes soft ground as it'd stunt a speed horses turn of foot, visually Zeb seems untroubled by any pace they go in the race and he does indeed have an unbelievable engine to be still cantering at the end of every race on varying ground.

The ground is likely to be quick in March which would favour Zebs style over Master Minded. What the past two seasons have proved is Zeb and MM hammering opposition on the run up to Cheltenham doesn't give any real indication of how they will perform in the Champ Chase.

I personally think the Chasers Master Minded has beaten this season are of lower quality than Golden Silver and Captain Cee Bee. So The dial a bet chase would be the best trial this season imv.

But at the end of the day, this can only be settled in March.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 9:14 PM GMT
You think Cee Bee is better than Petit Robin and Somersby? That must only be based on how good you think he could be, rather than what he has shown so far.

Won't go into all the details posted previously, but to say there's 'no concrete reason to think MM will beat Zeb' is a bit silly given what has been said. The CC in March was slowly run, played into Zeb's hands as his form suggests to me he can't jump as fluently under pressure. I admit he was impressive in the CC but hindsight tells us he beat two horses of whom are not up to CC standard.

MM, for whatever reason, simply didn't run his race. BZ wasn't to do with that.
Report buddeliea December 21, 2010 9:27 PM GMT
good post CV,and you are correct,wont be settled till march,but more than happy with 4's nrnb.
Report buddeliea December 21, 2010 9:32 PM GMT
wicket,you make a fair point re BZ jumping IF mm puts him under pressure,two things have to happen there,one BZ has to make mistakes which he has not for a few runs now,and TWO MM has to get in a position to put the pressure on.Neither is guaranteed at all imo
Report Steeplechasing December 21, 2010 9:33 PM GMT
On the time gap debate, a repeat of my earlier post:

Nicholls is renowned for spouting excuses after one of his champs appears not to have run to form.  Against BZ at Punchestown it was ' The horse has been on the go since July'. The reality was that MM had run 3 races before Ireland, with a winning total of 33 lengths, never under any pressure.  He'd had a 7 week break since the Festival.

This year Nicholls cited the ground for MM's defeat in the QM.


The freshness of horses for Festivals is becoming more of an issue each year imo.  Cheltenham is becoming the be all and end all.  Runners there tend to go on to Aintree almost exclusively because of the prize money rather than the horse's readiness or wellbeing - hence the increasing number of 'surprise' results. 

Punchestown has been less affected; Mr Mullins cunningly keeps much of his ammo for his home meeting knowing they'll be facing some burned out opposition.  Punchestown prizes might not be as  big as Cheltenham's nor the achievements as prestigious, but the Mullins strategy has paid off handsomely enough so far.
Report buddeliea December 21, 2010 9:37 PM GMT
i am presuming you meant that MM would be the one to put the pressure on BZ,apologies if i have misread you.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 9:54 PM GMT
It all depends on how the race is run. If it's a furious gallop I can't see anything beating MM. MM was under pressure too far out in the CC for it to be his true running. Usually that's when he's cruising, waiting to take the lead. If it is a furious gallop I wouldn't expect Zeb's jumping to be foot perfect, and in a CC I can't take a price that short for BZ when I personally have those doubts. The last time BZ made those mistakes was the Tingle Creek at Sandown, because his jumping went to pot when Twist Magic (RIP) set a frantic pace. Since then he hasn't been in a race with a furious gallop up front so his jumping hasn't been tested in the way I'd need to see. I think the Tingle Creek that day also proved that Forpady just isn't a good 2m yardstick, and another reason to doubt just how good the CC form is.

I can see him winning easily in the Dial-A-Bet chase because it likely won't be truly run. If he gets shorter on here I will definitely be laying him.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 9:57 PM GMT
Wicketd I do indeed mean I believe Captain Cee Bee is better than Somersby given he was about to beat Sizing Europe before falling at Leopardstown, he then burst a blood vessel in the Arkle. His 3 losses over fences and hurdles to date are 2 burst blood vessels and one fall when cantering. So it's my opinion that he could be anything in open company, but he hasn't the form in the book, no. Given he beat Binoclar over hurdles and should have beaten SE over fences.

Also I accept that there is the danger Zeb's old jumping problems might come back but he seems over them to me, that jump at the last in the Champ Case was perfection. He was awesome fencing that day. I'm a punter that will not oppose a horse based on possible fall if I believe he is the most talented horse in the race. Zeb used to make blunders out of nowhere, not poor rounds of fencing.

People say they went a crawl in the Champ Case just because the comentator mentioned the slow early pace, but the pace picked up from there and Golden Silver and Pady were putting it on from the front. The final time was no slow time and Zeb imv could have put up a better performance given he was ridden to win not to put up a time. He was only asked as question after the last.

It's a personal view that speed finishers like Zeb and Kauto are never given the ratings they are capable of because they let others set the pace, with no risk needing to be taken by taking it up earlier than necessary if you have a finishing kick. I'm certain Zeb had plenty left and had he been asked a question after the 2nd last he'd have won by 10 or more lenghts.

I can't have either Master Minded nor Zeb as having concrete reasons to win in March as in the past two champ chases it's 1-1 but Zeb fell and MM wasn't at his best.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 10:20 PM GMT
Zeb put in a terrible round of jumping at Sandown when a strong pace was set from the off. The CC pace obviously picked up but was still comparitavely slow. I think it's a little naive to say he would've won by further had he been sent on earlier. Horses can often deceive with regards to how much they have in hand. He might've only won by 3 lengths had he gone on earlier and came back to them up the hill. It's just conjecture and definitely not 'concrete'.

With regards to Cee Bee, it's a HUGE step-up from novice chasing to mixing it with the big guns as I'm sure you know. Sizing was put in his place out of novice company over 2 miles and imo Cee Bee won't place in the Dial-A-Bet although he could well prove me wrong. I'm sure he would've beaten Sizing (at xmas) too, but did Sizing run to his Arkle rating that day?

An example would be Zaarito. Arguably should have mopped up absolutely everything in the novice 2m division last year. Was a bit unlucky against Cee Bee, was travelling well when falling at the last against Citizen Vic, had the Powers Gold Cup at his mercy when falling two or three out. Based on An Cathaoir Mor (RIP) and the way he is ridden (dropped out) he would've gone very close in the Irish Arkle.

He went up against Golden Silver and was totally outclassed. He'll come on for his run I'm sure but Golden Silver didn't break sweat to beat him.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 10:22 PM GMT
Didn't mean to put 2m division down for Zaarito, although he definitely had the pace for it.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 10:34 PM GMT
True Zeb was awful at Sandown but the short break between races was put down as the reason for it, especially when you have to travel over too, he's better fresh that's why he was given a nice break after that race. It's a fair excuse given he run a cracking racing in the tied cottage chase after that mullering Golden Silver by 7l. Also why this season they were never going to go over for it this year. Suffice to say a win in the dial a bet and tied cottage with a find round of fencing will have me very confident come Champ Chase day and anything good to soft or better.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 10:47 PM GMT
The travel may have dented his performance, I can accept that. But best with a gap? He beat Psycho over hurdles 15 days before losing narrowly to Master Minded. Won a novice chase in April 2008 a month after competing at Fairyhouse. He hasn't run so badly after a race that screams to me he is best fresh. Also, his win on debut in 2009 was absolutely effortless. He didn't have a hard race in the slighest. Best 'fresh' seems to be an excuse used frequently now to defend trainer's best horses when they don't run up to what they're capable of. That includes Nicholls.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 11:07 PM GMT
Well I think you'll find Nicholls was right on the best fresh given Kauto improved a stone due to his change in campaigning. Murphy has said Zeb is improving due to him keeping him fresh and I'm sorry but the evidence supports that fact.

His 7l hammering of Golden Silver on Heavy Ground, His impressive Champ Chase win, those two runs off 7 week breaks.

You look at early last year and he was run too many times in spring and his jumping was gash, yet his jumping was fine fto at Leopardstown in Dec 08. You look then to the short break to Sandown and his jumping went poor again. I believe trainers when I can see evidence of their opinion in the form of their horse.

It's evident in Zeb when off a 6/7 week break he puts in impressive performances. Have a look for yourself.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 11:10 PM GMT
*Though he did have jumping problems in spring last year, no doubt about it but they seemed to be ironed out.
Report CVByrne December 21, 2010 11:14 PM GMT
It'll be interesting to see if Zeb is slightly less impressive in the Tied Cottage Chase this year given it'll be off a 4 week break, his first short break since Sandown. I assume he'll likely have inferior opposition though, Golden Silver can't reoppose if he loses the dial a bet. It would be a good testing ground for this view if GS reopposes.
Report Wicketd December 21, 2010 11:52 PM GMT
How can you explain his run behind Master Minded then after just a two week break? Or are you saying the only thing that affects his jumping is how fresh he is? He is good fresh, no doubt about it but there's not enough evidence for me to say he's 'best fresh', when one of his best bits of form (loss to MM) was 2 weeks after a win over hurdles.

The evidence for me suggests his jumping isn't good enough when a true gallop is set. Remember this also, MM made the running at Punchestown which isn't his most suited style. It was a moderate pace which again would have played into Zeb's hands, not to mention the race was in Ireland. Given the proximity of the third placed horse, Conna Castle, you'd have to say MM ran below his Cheltenham best that day, which is understandable. Zeb's jumping was actually decent UNTIL the pace increased. He then put in a couple of horrible ones.
Report CVByrne December 22, 2010 12:15 AM GMT
Again two ways of seeing things I suppose. Hard to get anything definitive from the Punchestown race really, except Zeb is the only real rival Master Minded has faced.

Thing to note is Zeb's Champ Chase is 4.5 sec faster than the best of MM's 3 runs at Cheltenham, so it was a good time and proves given the slow early pace he can jump very well when the pace increased, so I wouldn't worry about that myself. There is no doubt he is certainly got a huge chance come March.

I do maintain Captain Cee Bee could the the Imperial Commander to the MM and Zebs Kauto and Denman. We'll see how he does next week.
Report apieceofcake December 29, 2010 6:18 PM GMT
Another smooth win for Big Zeb today, but told us nothing new in all honesty.

I see that the bookmakers couldn't resist shortening the big two for the Festival.
Report thefarmer December 29, 2010 6:30 PM GMT
Today told us that Big Zeb is still the best 2 miler around and that certainly in Ireland Golden Silver is a clear second best. As far as i could see Captain Cee Bee didn`t do an awful lot wrong. He jumped well enough but lacked the class of the first two.

No surprise to see Big Zeb shortened on the back of that run on ground that would have been a bit soft for him. Back on decent ground in the Champion Chase i confidently expect Big Zeb to confirm form with Master Minded.
Report vinnie_roe December 29, 2010 6:40 PM GMT
I was really impressed with his jumping today, seemed to idle in the finish. Reminded me of moscow flyer.
Report buddeliea December 29, 2010 7:52 PM GMT
Thought he showed real class today,not his ground,but after the last when for a moment he looked like he may be in danger of losing,he just pulled out a bit extra when needed,real class act this one.Jumped real well also and seems to have really put his previous problems well behind him.
Report Wicketd December 29, 2010 11:20 PM GMT
This race told us absolutely nothing and to shorten him for the CC was expected but in all honestly unwarranted. Another small field/slow pace combination played into his hands and his jumping once again was under absolutely no pressure. Golden Silver just lacks that top class gear, and as I pointed out to CV earlier in the thread Captain Cee Bee struggled against the top Irish two milers, although a fast pace would surely see him in a better light.

The proximity of Scotsirish today gives a clear indication into how much the race is worth from a form perspective.

I'll still look to oppose Big Zeb come March, a faster pace will not suit him and with Tataniano, Mad Max and Petit Robin possibly lining up, that'll be gauranteed.
Report Masterminded December 29, 2010 11:27 PM GMT
All you Big Zeb fans knocking Master Minded's form look at that today. All out to beat Scotsirish by 2 lengths. FFS not in Master Minded's league. He is a good horse and will win every slow run race in Ireland but he will get found out in true run championship races!
Report Steeplechasing December 29, 2010 11:31 PM GMT
Most surprisingly described as 'all out' in RP summary - far from it to my eye - a comfortable victory on the back of a held up prep, with laser-accurate jumping.  Amazed you can get 4/1 NRNB for the QM with Badblokes - ante-post bet of the season at that price.
Report Randle December 29, 2010 11:50 PM GMT
Masterminded will be 1.5 if it lines up on the 16th march
Report Far From Trouble December 30, 2010 12:21 AM GMT
He wasn't that short this year after having honked up in the Game Spirit. With Big Zeb around he won't even be odds on
Report Howdi December 30, 2010 1:11 AM GMT
Randle Joined: 10 Sep 10
Replies: 1148 29 Dec 10 23:50   


Masterminded will be 1.5 if it lines up on the 16th march

will it feck
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 7:52 AM GMT
Hated the ground and still won pretty comfortably,class act as i said.

MM,
  he will get found out in true run championship races!

Of course he will,thats why he is the current Champion Chaser

pmsl!!
Report apieceofcake December 30, 2010 10:53 AM GMT
Hey bud, great debate on here btw.

I don't think I can agree with you when you say BZ hated the ground, I personally don't think that horses win multiple grade1/grade2 races on soft/heavy if they can't handle the surface. Btw not disputing the fact that the horse is better on quicker ground.

Just trying to be objective as neutral who has backed neither BZ or MM
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat December 30, 2010 10:57 AM GMT
zeb had the race won 5out yesterday and was given as easy a race as possfrom 2out imho.the summary in rp is b ollocks
Report apieceofcake December 30, 2010 11:34 AM GMT
Agreed tweedle, very strange description of BZ's race.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 12:26 PM GMT
ok cakey,
lets say he would prefer decent ground then,no worries.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 2:08 PM GMT
I'm sorry Wicketd but "a faster pace will not suite him"!?

Zeb won the bl00dy champ chase in a time 4.5s quicker than any of Master Minded's 3 runs at Cheltenham, his jumping has been foot perfect in his 4 runs this year. The horse was hard on the steel jumping the last in the Champ Chase. His main weapon is how well he jumps and gallops at pace while still on the bridle. You comments are nonsense and have no basis in any evidence.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 2:17 PM GMT
Big Zeb's Champ Chase time is the fastest since Edredon Bleu in 2001. Yep sure hates fast pace doesn't he?
Report Wicketd December 30, 2010 2:21 PM GMT
He has not faced an end to end gallop from the off and come through. Sandown, his jumping went to pot, CC 2009, he fell. It was a modest early pace and this allowed him to get into a good early rhythm. It played into his hands. Fwiw I don't think times hold much weight in arguments. Obviously you think I'm saying that just to suit it here, but honestly I hardly factor times into anything unless I'm comparing races on the same day. There are just too many variables on different days, how quickly they got to the first fence, the early pace etc etc.

My evidence is that in two races where he has been forced to go quick early he hasn't shown up. That for me is good enough to oppose him in a strongly run race.

I must admit though, at least I base my arguments on facts, whereas you stated a while back that Mikael would 'piss' the Arkle based on nothing but hurdling form (over 2m+) and hype, given he hadn't even jumped a fence at that point. Mikael was outpaced badly today. I'm not aftertiming, I told you to apply caution in the Mikael thread. If there's any 'nonsense' without basis it's your inability to hear of defeat for any horse you fancy.
Report Wicketd December 30, 2010 2:23 PM GMT
Given the ED was rated 166 after his CC win, what does that tell you about the times?
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 2:29 PM GMT
You need to seperate throw away comments like Mikael p1ssing the arkle and reasoned debate like here about Zeb. It's not always serious on here.

Now I'll point out why you're wrong.

2009 Champ Chase he settled and jumped well and was going well in 5th before he fell at the 5th last. So his Rythem was fine and that was the 2009 Zeb, he's improved hugely from then, he's settling fine in races and his Jumping is excellent.

Sandown was soft and he was not fresh. The horse needs his time between races.

If he's beat in March it'll be because Master Minded is a better horse, not because he won't jump well or settle.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 2:33 PM GMT
Times tell you how fast they made it round the course, ie how fast they were asked to jump. Basically countering your argument that he will not settle or jump at a fast pace.

Horse is now a fantastic jumper. Plain and simple, like Kauto Star jumping is now an asset.
Report Wicketd December 30, 2010 2:34 PM GMT
OK I take your Mikael comment with a pinch of salt, but all the same it's a ridiculous thing to say.

I cannot have Zeb needing to be fresh, given that he almost beat MM after winning a race over hurdles 13 days earlier. Just doesn't add up whatsoever.

Four of his last five wins have been in small fields in Ireland crawling along at a non-demanding pace. His fourth placed Tingle Creek finish and fall in the 2009 CC were in strongly run races. No coincidence imo.

If you think he is fine under a strong pace good luck to you, I hope he proves me wrong, he is clearly a vastly talented horse, would love to see him regain his crown. I just think he's vulnerable under a strong pace, so will oppose him on that basis.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 2:45 PM GMT
He almost beat Master Minded in 2009 at Punchestown because he is a better horse than Master Minded.

Also his form is 1F1111 off a 6/7 week break.

You are basing your whole argument on the Tingle Creek and 2009 Champ Chase. Where the former was off a 3 week break, and the latter the early pace was no problem and the horse settled well before falling 5 out when going perfectly well. It happened to Moscow Flyer in 2004 at the 4th last.

There is no way possible to conclude he will have a problem with any early pace. It smacks of looking for what he didn't do in March when winning the Champ Chase and pointing to that as his weakness.
Report Wicketd December 30, 2010 3:15 PM GMT
CVB, we're going round in circles again. We'll agree to disagree, March will be the decider.
Report apieceofcake December 30, 2010 5:09 PM GMT
One thing I don't understand is why people continue to refer back to BZ's Tingle Creek run as evidence to his ability to handle a fast run race?

Sandown is not Cheltenham. Plenty of horses hate it round there, some just cannot get into a jumping rythhm over those railway fences. Cheltenham by contrast is one of the fairest tracks in the Country, BZ is proven round there at a decent pace.

In all, since his narrow Punchestown defeat to Master Minded, BZ has only put in one sloppy round of jumping(Sandown). In every other race in this period the horse has been exemplary at his obstacles.

Any Master Minded supporters that are using BZ's jumping as a reason to oppose him or take him lightly are barking up the wrong tree imho
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 5:35 PM GMT
Both horses are very good 2 milers on their day,i happen to think BZ has proved he is currently the best.Well he has has'nt he??
Now this season come March MM may beat him(THATS RACING),but imo absolutely no reason why MM should be fav,and i am more than happy with 4 nrnb BZ,very generous odds i think.
Report Wicketd December 30, 2010 5:37 PM GMT
I can accept that Sandown is not Cheltenham, but it was still a fast gallop and his jumping was not good. As I said a few pages back, I do not think BZ's CC was up to much formwise, with Forpady and KK in first and second. BZ is a class horse as I've said many times, but his wins in Ireland are in small fields with absolutely no pace, no test for a champion chaser. Golden Silver would have won all starts this year without Zeb in the mix and he is not up to CC winning standard for me.

I didn't like the way Zeb finished yesterday, at one point he looked like he was about to pull 8 lengths clear but suddenly stopped. I take into account the ground and that he'll improve for good though.
Report apieceofcake December 30, 2010 6:36 PM GMT
Roll on the 16th of March Happy
Report CVByrne December 30, 2010 7:01 PM GMT
Big Zeb's Champ Chase win was better form wise than anything Master Minded has put up since the one off in 2008. Master Minded has never imo run to the level Big Zeb did in March since that Champ win in 08.

The handicapper has boxed himself in, he has rated MM highly for defeats of Petit Robbin who is a horse not even remotely close to G1 level just to maintain the belief he wasn't wrong with the 186 he gave him in 08.

I've seen the 08 Champ Chase win and the 09 Gold Cup win, and I'm in no doubt Kauto hammering a field of G1 horses is deserving of a 186, while Master Minded's defeat of Voy Por Ustedes is the only way to rate that race. A horse who was no longer a 2 miler. At the time the tingle winner Twist Magic (RIP mate) wasn't known to be a hater of Cheltenham.

Master Minded is not a wonder horse, he's simply a mid 170's 2m chaser who has only ever faced 2 decent rivals, Voy Por Ustedes and Big Zeb. At the end of the day, Big Zeb is the champion, he beat Master Minded with the only excuse given by the trainer being the ground.

Master Minded is not fast enough on goodish ground to deal with a horse like Big Zeb. Master Minded's talent is his galloping and jumping, he'll go full pelt on soft ground and not stop until the line. That is a style of racing that has let him look so impressive beating tree's.

Zeb is a horse who travels on the steel at any pace set and finishes the race off after the last. Geraghty is supremely confident in the horses engine. Look at all his races in open company, Tingle Creek aside where he just want not going from the start, Zeb has been the winner when not blundering a fence. With his jumping sorted he looks solid to retain his crown.

He, to me is the most talented horse in the race and you have to back the most talented horse in the race.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 7:10 PM GMT
Especially at 4 nrnb!!
Report Masterminded December 30, 2010 7:47 PM GMT
Big Zeb is not good enough to beat a real Master Minded. They are not in the same league. He won a piss poor Champion Chase and times can't even begin to be mentioned in a national hunt race. They are debatable enough on the flat. I think Big Zebs a good horse but he's no way better than Master Minded. He struggled to beat Scotsirish. Master Minded leaves horses like that a fence behind.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 8:00 PM GMT
Laughable post MM.
Worried man sounds like to me.
They obviously are in the same league,and MMs Queen Mums were no better,in fact i would say probably worse.
As your name suggests you are most definitely biased,and really its rather difficult to take your comments seriously.
Report Masterminded December 30, 2010 9:08 PM GMT
Laugh It's clear I am biased. As are most in this thread. Not worried though. I would never be worried about a horse race I enjoy the banter it's what it's all about. I just find it funny how people love to knock a true Champion and one of the best 2 milers of all time and say Big Zeb is better. That truly is laughable.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2010 9:20 PM GMT
Yeh,people knocking Istabraq on another thread earlier today,just not right.
I aint knocking MM,he is a very good horse,just happen to think that BZ is now better,but i do know i could be proved wrong come March.
Report kavvie December 30, 2010 11:48 PM GMT
a very enjoyable thread, and it shows all that is good about this forum.no insults,just sound reasoning and debate.my position is i have a substantial bet on mm at the 2s nrnb.but i feel i might have an ew saver on bz..i was impressed with him against golden silver on the basis that gs had every thing in his favour ground wise and fitness wise.bz jumping seems to be flawless now and on that basis he has a very good chance.4s  ew nrnb is a great price ..if he gets there and dont fall(unlightly) hes a cert to at least place..
Report Should be studying January 22, 2011 11:58 PM GMT
5/2 nr no bet now with Ladbrokes for those who still believe
Report Wicketd January 23, 2011 6:47 AM GMT
I'll take that, think I must be one of the only ones impressed by yesterday's showing. Nicholls yard not on top of their game for a start. Why oh why didn't McCoy kick on when he quickened to the front. Cry He got the horse back on the bridle and then had to fend off the challenge of Somersby who had one strong sustained run at him. His jumping stood the test under pressure too.

5/2 is a great price.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2011 9:32 AM GMT
Think the original point about 2 nrnb has now been proved wrong,as its now bigger!!:D
And imo will be even bigger on the day.
Dont look to me anywhere near the horse that got that inflated rating all those years ago.
Report thefarmer January 23, 2011 12:56 PM GMT
I think the most impressive aspect of Master Minded`s performance yesterday was his jumping. However i still stand by my opinion that Master Minded is essentially a 2m 4f horse these days and wont be able to go the pace in the Champion Chase. I see Woolcombe Folly as the biggest danger to Big Zeb although i think Sizing Europe would have a massive chance if lining up.
Report CVByrne January 23, 2011 5:25 PM GMT
He had his ideal conditions yesterday, right handed track, soft ground, average horses and almost got beat. He'll not have his prefered conditions at Cheltenham, good ground, left handed track good horses.

Zeb will go outright fav if he wins the Tied Cottage Chase. Where I think he is at his most vulnerable, not fresh, soft ground.
Report Steeplechasing January 23, 2011 8:34 PM GMT
I posted after his first run that he regularly gets very low at his fences these days. Big Zeb the bet of the meeting for my money.
Report Wicketd January 24, 2011 2:46 AM GMT
CV, average horses? Give it up mate. Somersby and MM pulled 20 lengths clear of the rest and recorded a very good time. Add to the fact that AP admitted he ballsed up the ride on MM it reads very well. Somersby improving with every run.

BZ can crawl around in Ireland and beat up the same horses over and over again, it'll just give me a better price to lay.
Report Wicketd January 24, 2011 3:09 AM GMT
Forgot to add, PN's horses are hardly firing.
Report duncan idaho January 24, 2011 8:14 AM GMT
''He'll not have his prefered conditions at Cheltenham, good ground, left handed track good horses.''


You are very clever being able to forcast the ground 2 months in advance. Funny, track seemed fine when he won by 19 lengths 2 yrs ago. Think it was still LH back then.
Report sintonian January 24, 2011 9:18 AM GMT
Not to mention the recent re-arranged Tingle Creek win, at Cheltenham.

I actually changed my mind on MM prior to his win on Saturday and backed Big Zeb (posted elsewhere), but some of these comments about MM are a bit daft,imvho.
Report sintonian January 24, 2011 9:41 AM GMT
For the record, MM has 3 wins from 5 starts around Cheltenham. And one of those defeats was the race where he broke Rib.
Report floozy January 24, 2011 10:02 AM GMT
Master Minded 11/4 with vee cee
Report buddeliea January 24, 2011 12:32 PM GMT
MOUNT CLERIGO Joined: 26 Feb 02
Replies: 147 11 Dec 10 16:49

back Big Zeb NRNB at 4's with laddies then morons.  the original forum note is correct, with a NRNB 2/1 is a overpriced. fact

^ Perfect example of being careful when calling people names,it can come back and bite you!! and make one look rather foolish!!!
Report buddeliea January 24, 2011 12:36 PM GMT
Totally agree Steeple,Big Zeb is the bet of the meeting for me as well.
Did you take 4 NRNB?,stonking bet,has to be,given he is smaller now without the concession,and imo likely to be fav on the day.
Report CVByrne January 24, 2011 2:07 PM GMT
Yes Big Zeb us beating his rivals in ireland on ground he doesn't like. The form that maters is the form from march. He hosed up. Master Minded has it all to  prove not zeb

Oh and Golden Silver beat the arkle winner, who beat somersby. Zeb has never looked like losing to golden silver. There is form lines to add to his champ  chase title.

People have got to realise, this is not 2008.
Report CVByrne January 24, 2011 2:13 PM GMT
What's also overlooked is petit robin fell, he ended ahead of somersby last time so he may    have featured at the end too. Kalahari king was badly hampered while Mad max is a handicapper.
Report Wicketd January 24, 2011 2:21 PM GMT
You're such an arrogant arse.

Firstly, you have to realise that Chelteham isn't Punchestown. I'll reserve judgement on Sizing Europe against the best over two miles for the minute. If you want to take that form literally then be my guest.

Secondly, you're acting as if Somersby hasn't improved since his Arkle run. He was six years old in the Arkle and has, over two miles, markedly improved with every run since. I wouldn't be surprised to see Somersby reverse the form quite well if SE reverts to two miles this year.

Golden Silver is a good horse but no better than Petit Robin imo. Another one you label a 'handicapper' to bring MM's form down.

I'm absolutely fine with you having a different view to me but you do come out with some ridiculous stuff.
Report CVByrne January 24, 2011 3:17 PM GMT
I'm  arrogant? Cop on and look at yourself ffs. I thought you were a good poster but now resort to giving abuse when someone has a strong differing opinion.

Face facts, Zeb is the champ and he beat master minded to become champ.

You show your blinkered nonsense when you say Golden Silver is the same level as petit robin. What will you say next if Zeb beats Sizing Europe in the tied cottage chase? That Sizing has regressed? That Somersby has improved more than sizing europe?

I'm sure what ever conclusion you draw will down play big zeb.

You need to look in the mirror mate and have a bit of respect for other peoples  views you arrogant arse.

Would you have the humility to come on here and admit you were wrong if zeb retains his title in march?
Report Wicketd January 24, 2011 4:00 PM GMT
I'm  arrogant? Cop on and look at yourself ffs. I thought you were a good poster but now resort to giving abuse when someone has a strong differing opinion.

Yet in almost every thread in the Cheltenham forum I've seen you post in you have people telling you you can't take differing views and get defensive? Come on mate.

I think Zeb is a very good horse and completely deserved his champion chase victory, I don't think I've ever said anything different. All I've said is that the fast-run race at Cheltenham will suit Master Minded far better, and that his run in the 2010 renewal is impossible to belive given how close Oh Crick got to him. Clearly he is a LOT better this year.

Where have I been arrogant? Please show me.

It's your high horse comments that rile me. 'People have to realise this isn't 2008'. Seriously. It's as if you think you're the only one in the country that realises he clearly hasn't put up a performance to match that one since. Comments like that are just utterly arrogant and not needed. I have full respect for most views on this forum but you need to have some tact.

Tell me, why is it unfair to believe Petit Robin is as good as Golden Silver? I could say you're having the same 'blinkered' views.

As I've said I think Zeb is fully deserving of his crown and I'd love to see him win it twice (clearly you missed the post in which I said that earlier in the thread, but apparently I'm blinkered). It's just my opinion that a very strong pace FROM THE OFF will find him out.
Report CVByrne January 24, 2011 4:13 PM GMT
I think you are looking for the only think that might have zeb beat in typical over analysis style. And plumped for early pace as Zeb has clearly clocked a time round cheltenham faster than any of master mindeds 5 runs there so we'll go for early pace.

I'd love for someone to time the pace of the first mile in the past three champion chases for comparison.

Anyway, it's clear this will only be settled on the day, may the best horse win.  Though I'm very confident in Zeb there is no sure things in racing.

I do hope you'll acknowledge him as the better horse should he defeat master minded again. I most certainly will acclaim Master Minded should he regain his crown against this field.
Report Wicketd January 24, 2011 4:22 PM GMT
I have backed MM as the main bet and backed BZ as a saver, I rate the horse very highly. If he wins fair and square then fair play, he certainly has the ability to win it again.

I hold no grudges against you personally and do indeed value your insight on these forums, don't want it to seem like I'm going against you for the sake of it.
Report CVByrne January 24, 2011 4:36 PM GMT
I  have similarly  backed both. Main bet is of course Zeb. I suppose we're just both very confident in our picks.

This is my nap of the festival, I think he's improved since last season in how he settles and his  jumping is a huge asset.

I'm just very confident in Big Zeb. Similarly to how you are with MM.

I just hope one of them wins, out captain cee bee.
Report sintonian January 24, 2011 5:02 PM GMT
I understand why you are confident in BZ CVbyrne. But some of your posts about horses sometimes are disparaging rather than constructively critical.

Just as an example, you say BZ won last year fair and square so ''face facts'', but at the same time you dont acknowldege the horse had an injury interrupted season, BZ did not. It does in someways mis-represent the truth, and that winds people up.

For the record, I have backed BZ also, and im not interested in having a saver on MM, but MM is some horse in his own right.
Report downallstar January 24, 2011 5:15 PM GMT
A lot of carp talked here by both imo.
Only point I wish to take issue with is that Golden Silver is on a par with Petit Robin.
There are only 3lbs between them on OR.
Cannot have this at all - think PR is flattered by his mark. I believe we will see a different GS in the Ryanair this year, than recent visits to Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea January 24, 2011 5:16 PM GMT
very very cofident about Big Zeb,but i would get anxious if it were to come up soft or worse on the day,i think if that were the case MM would be tough to beat.Any good in the description i have no doubt if all went well on the day,BZ would win,i really think he is now the better horse and has been for a couple of years now.Of course it can never be proved,but i do think had he not fallen he would have 2 qmums,i genuinely think that.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 12:32 AM GMT
Wicketd, I stopped bothering with CVByrne some time go. A very boring poster who can't take any banter or challenging and refuses to hear of defeat for his horses leading to some incredibly circular discussions.

I only wish the Betdack forum had a similar block feature. Happy
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 10:04 AM GMT
I'm fairly sure we wouldn't want you over there Joist. We have the banter over there.

Difference with me is I have the humility to come back on here after cheltenham, admit when I get it wrong and congratulate the winners.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 11:24 AM GMT
Why wouldn't you want me, CV?

Also, I'm very confused as to how your second sentence applies to me. Though rest assured, if Big Zeb tonks MM again in March, I'll be the first to congratulate your selection, but it won't change my opinion of your incredibly arrogant, dislikable postings.
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 11:35 AM GMT
I think you needed to te read a few of your posts in this thread before you start talking about others.

Over on purple we have plenty of disagreements and discussion but we all  respect each other. You lack respect.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 11:42 AM GMT
Laugh

Whatever. There's only ever been a problem when you can't take a lighthearted post as it was meant.

I lack respect- for you, yes. For 90% of the other posters, I have full respect. Happy
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 11:50 AM GMT
I don't care about your posts, you've no insight of value so I couldn't care what you think and I'm certainly not the only one.

Reasoned debate on here is  becoming a thing  of the past.  More and more posters are swamping the place with pointless posts, typified by yourself.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 12:04 PM GMT
A standard tit-for-tat response, to be expected. Given the rarity of my posting, I'm certainly unaware of anyone else who has a problem with my posts, and even more suprised at your judgement that I have no insight given such rare posts to form an opinion of. In fact, in just this thread you have people saying the exact thing I did a few pages back about you. You're hardly Mr. Popular over on Dack either, it seems!

Reasoned debate is impossible with a person who only reads what they want to read of an argument, and it too arrogant to hear of defeat for their fancied horse.

Anyway enough playground stuff, boring.
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 12:12 PM GMT
Basically before we get bogged down on here with other posters we ask if anyone has experience with them. I did so and was told not to bother with you. So there's  opinions on you prior to this thread.
Report duncan idaho January 25, 2011 12:18 PM GMT
''Face facts, Zeb is the champ and he beat master minded to become champ.''


That sounds like an 8-y-os reasoning, if i'm honest
Report Joist January 25, 2011 12:24 PM GMT
I'm a bit confused- when do you ask about other posters, and where? Given most of my postings are tongue-in-cheek wind up attempts, it does not suprise me if this was the case, but I still find it all a bit spurious.

Still, rather be ignored for posting obvious non-serious things, than ignored for being a tool. Grin
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
He deserves more respect than he's getting. He is after all the champ and it is Master Minded with it to prove. That is more what I was getting at.

We have pretty polar opposites on this one. Different to many other races, this one looks a two horse race.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 12:39 PM GMT
I'm not sure it's a two horse race. Woolcombe Folly doesn't have a great deal to find to get competitive. He's still improving and clearly acts well at Cheltenham. His Arkle run can be forgiven where it's possible he bounced. He officially only has 5lbs to find.

I also can't rule out Captain Cee Bee; his last run clearly wasn't his showing and better ground will obviously be a help. It is a slight leap of faith to back him though given his record of bleeding but if gets there in top form then he has as much ability as any horse in the race.

Can't see anything else getting competitive though tbh.
Report abbott January 25, 2011 1:33 PM GMT
joist the Arkle run had nothing to do with him bounceing but had everything to do with Sam Thomas fcking up his last schooling session where he took a very heavy fall at the last fence.

I wouldnt be surprised if Woolcombe won the Championship as I had a massive e/w bet on him last year for the Arkle yet didnt bet him and of his wins before and havnt bet him since.
Report downallstar January 25, 2011 1:35 PM GMT
Spot on abbott. Thought I dunno whose fault the fall was.
Report CVByrne January 25, 2011 1:47 PM GMT
Cee Bee, Woolcomb and Sizing all have claims too. But they will all give us more clues in their next runs before cheltenham.
Report Wayward Lad January 25, 2011 2:40 PM GMT
Must admit Abbott, that I'd forgotten that gallops fall prior to the Arkle. Thanks for reminding me (there is some value to be found from this forum after all).
Report abbott January 25, 2011 2:45 PM GMT
no probs wayward.

downallstar its only a personal opinion but when watching it at the time I felt Sam was at fault, from memory the horse wanted to go for a big one and he pulled him back.
As I said I had a fairly lumpy e/w bet a 33s previous to that so my opinion may be slightly clouded.
Report downallstar January 25, 2011 2:47 PM GMT
I was talking about the schooling fall abbott!?
Who was on for that? Was a very heavy fall by all accounts.
Report abbott January 25, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
Thats what im talking about mate. Unless Ive totally lost the plot it was sam that was on it and that why he missed the festival. They showed the clip on RUK.
Report Joist January 25, 2011 6:38 PM GMT
Apologies Abbott, I completely forgot about that. Happy
Report abbott January 25, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
No probs bud, only reason I remember so well is that the horse shouldnty have run and I was on NRNB lol
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