Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
jay..b#
10 Oct 10 19:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Dec 07
| Topic/replies: 834 | Blogger: jay..b#'s blog
This years crop of 2 year olds is one of the strongest I can remember, and to have one horse, Frankel, as low as 2/1 for the 2000 Guineas is beyond ridiculous. Despite what this horse has achieved to date, how can anybody possibly back him at such low odds with a list of other top class 2yr olds as long as my arm.

Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express, all of whom are top class 2yr olds in their own right.

St Nicholas Abbey had the same hype as Frankel this time last year, and he was also rated 123(RPR) on his third ever outing (also unbeaten like Frankel) and look what happened to him.

Frankel is the biggest lay of the century at 2/1 and I filled my boots accordingly.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 122
By:
PFtrader
When: 10 Oct 10 19:39
You might be slightly hasty in laying him just now at 2's.

If I was going to lay him, and I won't be personally, I would wait until he bolts up next week after which he will be even shorter....
By:
jay..b#
When: 10 Oct 10 19:44
Yes, I intend to top up should he win the Dewhurst. I have already read the article in the Racing Post saying he will probably go on odds on should he win in style.
By:
pedrobob
When: 10 Oct 10 20:21
Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express....

At least 4 of that group of 7 will never win a Group 1 race at 3, so that reduces the credible opposition already
By:
mythical prince
When: 10 Oct 10 20:24
please post your lay ta
By:
Masterminded
When: 10 Oct 10 21:39
Plain I mean I'm not a layer but I can see the appeal. From now until the Guineas is a long time. Surely When you take that into account and if he improves at all over the winter there are a lot of risks involved backing him already. I've never been a fan of antepost on the flat as decisions and opinions of horses can change soooo much. He might go odds on if he wins but I doubt it will last long. I would want evens for a horse to turn up that far away. I will be waiting until the day.
By:
jair1970
When: 10 Oct 10 22:30
That RP article about him going odds on is hilarious . What a bookies advert; subtext, back him now cos he'll be shorter next week.

WALOFS.  I think you need yer head read if you wanna back him this weekend at current odds let alone for the Guineas.

Even if he did win this weekend and go odds on, it would still look like a terrible bet.
This is a classic case of value vs blind idiocy.
By:
Masterminded
When: 10 Oct 10 22:32
yep totally agree^
By:
neill d
When: 10 Oct 10 23:01
They say he already looks like a 3yo which could be a bad sign
By:
legend100
When: 11 Oct 10 02:04
signed in...


beat trees including a the gosden horse by a neck or something first time out,thats beeb beaten since,beat a screw of o briens last time,dream ahead beat some very smart animals on the bridle,beat a coventry winner by 10 lenghts


LAY OF THE CENTURY
By:
Prima Donna
When: 11 Oct 10 11:32
neill d     Joined: 19 Aug 09
Replies: 746 11 Oct 10 00:01 
They say he already looks like a 3yo which could be a bad sign

They also said that about Zafonic..........remember?
By:
neill d
When: 11 Oct 10 12:24
nope, before my time but if recent history is anything to go by (Rainbow View and St Nick both weren't big individuals)also St Nick and Rainbow were clearly the best 2yo around when these short prices for next years Classics were bandied about, we don't even know if he is the best yet. 2/1 aint much of a price for the Guineas although I've heard Gosden refer to it as the last 2yo race and I won't be laying it
By:
mythical prince
When: 11 Oct 10 13:28
legend100 Joined: 02 Jun 10
Replies: 1095 11 Oct 10 03:04   


signed in...


beat trees including a the gosden horse by a neck or something first time out,thats beeb beaten since,beat a screw of o briens last time,dream ahead beat some very smart animals on the bridle,beat a coventry winner by 10 lenghts


LAY OF THE CENTURY


post yer lay please ta
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 11 Oct 10 19:27
you're very nosey mythical
why should people show you their bets
By:
jay..b#
When: 12 Oct 10 18:05
I notice mythical prince has not posted his bet Laugh
Shocking that anyone can get off over Frankel winning a mickey mouse race last time out beating a 103 rated, exposed rag.
By:
mythical prince
When: 12 Oct 10 18:23
well i notice you haven't posted yours either

call it a mexican stand-off Laugh
By:
Masterminded
When: 12 Oct 10 18:49
Plain
By:
mythical prince
When: 12 Oct 10 20:01
saturday we'll see something very special indeed from frankel. in years to come we'll all be talking in hushed tones the day we saw THAT performance.
By:
jay..b#
When: 12 Oct 10 20:06
I take it you have already backed Frankel in the Guineas? Thanks in advance for your money
By:
mythical prince
When: 12 Oct 10 20:18
well yeah i'm sure you would be if you'd actually laid it.. but i rather suspect you haven't
By:
jay..b#
When: 12 Oct 10 20:32
LoL believe what you like, I know what I have laid. And I don't have to prove myself by posting my bet, just so I can satisfy the likes of yourself Laugh
By:
mythical prince
When: 12 Oct 10 20:55
surely if you have laid him for the guineas you've done the same for the dewhurst?
By:
pedrobob
When: 12 Oct 10 21:13
jay..b#     12 Oct 10 19:05 
I notice mythical prince has not posted his bet
Shocking that anyone can get off over Frankel winning a mickey mouse race last time out beating a 103 rated, exposed rag.


jb, if you describing the Group 2 Royal Lodge a mickey mouse race...... and a 10 length beating of a 103 horse .... as "shocking", maybe suggest reversing your lay bet as quietly as you can?
By:
Masterminded
When: 12 Oct 10 22:14
LaughPlainShocked
By:
mythical prince
When: 13 Oct 10 00:25
pedro Laugh
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 13 Oct 10 07:33
Frankel is currently 3.25 for the Guineas. Laying him at that price does not exactly fit my definition of "Balls of Steel" Laugh
By:
mythical prince
When: 16 Oct 10 16:28
not too late to lay off for a loss Laugh
By:
tons of sobs
When: 16 Oct 10 18:47
Lay Frankel Win & Place In The Dewhurst (Official Layers Thread)   


jay..b# Joined: 25 Dec 07
Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:25   

FRANKEL will be FINNISH after today.

jay..b#
Joined: 25 Dec 07
Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:32 

mythical prince
Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1783 16 Oct 10 17:28   
not too late to lay off for a loss 


i think he's lost enough.

and not just money.Laugh
By:
mythical prince
When: 16 Oct 10 18:50
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
mythical prince
When: 16 Oct 10 18:52
of course. he's nailed on for the guineas. however imv the guineas is always the best trial for the derby and the old saying about if youre nailed on to the the trip then youre probably too slow still holds. [;)]
By:
Ramruma
When: 16 Oct 10 19:01
Trouble is, given that connections also doubt Frankel's stamina, he may be aimed at the French Derby over ten furlongs rather than Epsom's twelve.
By:
kincsem
When: 17 Oct 10 00:02
I'll lay Frankel for a few hundred a month between now and May.

Why?

He is by a middle distance sire.
An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now.
Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field.
Three of his four runs had soft in the description.
Short price.
By:
pedrobob
When: 17 Oct 10 00:11
Kincsem,

He is by a middle distance sire - but clocked a blistering 11.1 sec furlong at AScot in the Royal Lodge in the penultimate furlong, probably the fastest furlong by any 2yo at any distance this season
An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now. - Someone mentioned earlier that John Gosden calls the Guineas the last 2yo race, so need the physical development now
Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field. - not slow away, would suggests been restrained by Queally to get cover as nothing can go fast enough to give a lead. Cecil will have pacemakers in 2011 so can be ridden prominently off a decent pace
Three of his four runs had soft in the description. - 2 of the 4 races (Ascot and Doncaster) were run on Good ground on my going correction
Short price. - agreed. But stopped a lot of people backing a winner today including Graham Cunningham who couldn't let a dual Grp 1 winner go off unbacked at 3/1 - this ignoring the obvious.

Suspect your lay will rest on Frankel not showing up. Doubt he will have to improve much, if any,  to win the Guineas now.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 10 00:44
Pedrobob, do you remember Xaar?
By:
kincsem
When: 17 Oct 10 01:11
Do you remember St Nicholas Abbey?
By:
the lay preacher
When: 17 Oct 10 08:13
all you are betting on is the ground being decent given good ground nothing will get near him.
By:
PFtrader
When: 17 Oct 10 08:18
Amazing what the price of a horse can do in terms of judging the ability of an animal. Now watched the tape back a few times and I am more impressed with that performance yesterday, despite the other two main protaganists failing to run their race.

Cons
Lost a length or two at the start after being hampered
Spotted the 2nd at least 2 or 3 easy lengths in the process
Proceeded to pull too hard for the first few furlongs
Arguably saw too much daylight on the outside which looked to contribute to him failing to settle
Forfeited ground on the placed horses by finishing about 3 or 4 horse widths wider than when starting his effort after the two pole

And despite this he made up ground effortlessly between 3 and 2 out, watch it again....the horse got to the front himself, Queally had barely asked him for any effort at that stage and didn't shake his reigns up until after 2 out. And he never once resorted to hitting him with the whip. Looks to me like better ground and a faster pace again will also suit the horse.

What is not to like about this horse ?
By:
pedrobob
When: 17 Oct 10 10:17
Figgis/kincsem, agree there is a possibility that Frankel may be fully grown (like Xaar and St Nicholas Abbey) and this as good as he is. Didn't think SNA grew at all over the winter judged on the one time we saw him in the Guineas. Trying to remember an image of Xaar, wasn't he a smallish type who also didn't physically develop after 2 or I am thinking of the wrong horse?

His trainer has also had 2yo champions who never went on at 3, someone listed them somewhere including Diesis, Dunbeath, Keen, High Estate etc. So of course it could happen to Frankel.

Let's hope not. As PFTrader pointed out, a lot went wrong for the horse yesterday, and as well as class, he's shown a lot of determination. Too many times we see the former come without the latter.

Many are saying he won't stay the Derby trip because he shows so much speed and pulls too hard. Trainer and jockey both said they had done a lot of work to rectify that and were unfortunately undone in the melee at the start caused by Waiters Dream/Fallon going right causing Dream Ahead to edge out and avoid him.

But he settled very well off a slower pace at Ascot, and with the help of pacemakers in 2011 and more time to teach him to relax, every chance that he will stay the Derby trip. Normally we would have no such doubts about a horse who won over a mile/soft ground on debut in August of his 2yo year?

According to Craig Thake in yesterdays RP, the last Dewhurst winner to have raced over further than 7f was Generous 20 years ago.

Have rated Roderic O'Connor as a massive improver, Glor Na MAra/Waiters Dream up around 3lbs each and Frankel 4lbs up on his Doncaster figure. Nothing spectacular,  but as above, a lot went wrong for him yesterday and Queally has done nothing but push him out. Think we all want to see a champion, hopefully he has plenty to come.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 10 10:41
Pedrobob

On my figures, without any wfa improvement factored in, Frankel would've dead heated with this year's Guineas winner, Makfi. Now Makfi wasn't up there with the best Guineas winners but he was decent. I'd say that it was pretty spectacular for a 2yo to be that good already.

I obviously don't doubt Frankel's current ability but I think anybody who sees this horse as a future betting prospect (who isn't on at fancy prices already) needs their head testing. I have usually found that 2yos as precocious as him don't improve much the following season, whatever their size. It's true that he might not need to improve to land the Guineas. If he just stays where he's at then one of the others is going to have to improve a fair bit (hardly impossible though as I don't think Makfi was rated very highly as a 2yo).

The problem though with a horse that's not going forwards is he might not just stay where he is, he could easily go backwards. Horses like Xaar, Armiger (another of Cecil's) SNA, Alhaarth, etc, that put up excellent performances as 2yos didn't just fail to improve, they regressed. I'd say Frankel's best chance of landing another Group 1 will be at the early part of his 3yo season. The chances of him carrying all before him throughout the year, like STS (a horse that made good improvement from 2 to 3) are very slim.
By:
reluctant
When: 17 Oct 10 11:08
once jouralists get a horse

to HYPE...HYPE...HYPE...

DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL...
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com