JOHN SMITH´S NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE 2M 26/06/10

*sighs* Do I have to post here as well?


Cosmic Sun
Merchant Of Dubai
Junior


shortlisted at very early stage

just put it up on other side for AR

kin hell terence , you do like your handicaps.

MM

Like the challenge of trying to dig one out at a nice price

Looks a classy race this yr w/ Munsef, Tastahil and Aajel entered. I will probably go for something off less. Chiberta King has to be the most progressive feasibly weighted horse, though I also like the idea of Cosmic Sun gradually stepping up in trip. Merchant of Dubai has if I recall a stiff flat mark for running over slightly shorter.

Gl all

terence ,i like my lowly weighted 3 yr olds from a southern stable. preferably with a low draw .

When are the weights published? I shall be interested to see how Rajik gets in.

I like Merchant of Dubai. A real galloper. He has won over 1m7f at Newmarket. But has speed to win class 2 over 1m4f.

ttt- keep terence happy

Taking a simplistic view. Bernie The Bolt was ante-post favourite for the Chester Cup, despite the trainer saying a week beforehand that the horse hadn't come in his coat.  Expecting the horse to put up a much improved performance, at a bigger price.

forecast looks good for the week. starting off today, nice and sunny, breezy. not too warm.

I liked Montaff for this but Channon has put the Kibosh on that having run him in the Gold Cup for a humilating 250 length thumping!!

red cadeaux?

merchant of dubai pisssses in know?

any news if Elyaadi is coming back over? Even if he is, I'd hope he's ridden slightly closer to the pace.

He'll need a miracle to get if but if he does, Deauville Flyer must have a massive shout

Think Overturn has a huge chance in this. Massively improving over hurdles and was going the right way when last seen on the flat. Presently number 32 in the list so should make the cut off point of 20. Forecast dry week ahead is the icing on the cake.

Chiberta King for me. I think they've looked after his mark nicely since he won LTO and from a stable that knows how to win good handicaps he's certainly at the top of my list.

Strewth I just realised he went up 9lbs for that last race. Maybe not so well in as I thought

Bernie The Bolt

weather update- nice warm sunny day already. forecast to stay that way for next few days ( at least )

Prices filtering through.

Deauville Flyer

^

Touch and go if he gets a run but 10/1 is far bigger than I was expecting.

Merchant of Dubai be ok on fast ground???

Red Cadeaux for me here, unlucky run in the Chester Cup and unlikely to find as much trouble in-running  here.  Wont play antepost tho as ground is an issue it seems, if its too fast he wont run.

t_mar, this is from the quotes section of the RP for the horse.  It may be irrelevant to be honest as it was as a 2yo but thought it may be of use. Chances are it wont be as much of an issue for him as a 5yo.


11Oct08 Musselburgh   ( 14 GS ,RPR98 )
He's a tough horse and he stays well, so we decided to make it a decent test of stamina. - P J McDonald; He's a horse who takes his racing particularly well, but took time to come back after getting jarred up on fast ground last summer at Newcastle. He'll go for the November Handicap now. - William Powrie (owners' rep.)

Cheers amaru.. ground the only slight concern for me, dont think I cant resist the 20/1 though :)

trying to decide on what gets in at the bottom, couple low down i like but not looking likely to get a run

overturn. end of fred

t_mar... I can't see Merchant of Dubai running unless there is some rain. He won't run with firm in the ground.

McCain said: "It is a bit of a shot in the dark but Overturn has the profile of a horse that could run well in it. We swerved Ascot to go there, and this has been the plan for a while.

"I think the race will suit him. It is a strong-galloping two miles and it should be right up his street - he races prominently and I don't see any reason why Newcastle shouldn't suit him."



Opinion Poll tops the weights but trainer Michael Jarvis said on Monday: "He's also in the Curragh Cup and he is ground dependent. The forecast doesn't look favourable for him and he might end up going nowhere."

James Armstrong, clerk of the course at Newcastle, whose three-day Plate meeting kicks off on Thursday, said on Monday: "We will be watering to maintain good to firm ground.

"We put 10mm on the straight course yesterday and 10mm on the round course today.

"There is a fantastic grass cover and we should be able to start the meeting on Thursday on ground with no jar in it. We can water before the evening card on Friday if we need to."

Backed MoD yesterday (cos I'm a mug obv)... I am worried about ground, however SL site reported the ground at Navan g/f firm in places?! So hopefully if he does run he wont be too inconvenienced... Obv the trainer pulling it out for fear of injury is a possibility although given how potentially well in MoD is will there be a better oppurtunity to bag a big hcap.. the plan was cup races after the Navan run.

this race usually suits prominent runners doesn't it? Or am I making that up ?

Like Chiberta King, Overturn and Bernie The Bolt at the moment.

t_mar.... Navan ground was good except for the final 1 1/2 furlongs which was concrete. He just got away with it. But he won't be risked in that again. Although as stated above there is a good cover of grass, which Navan didn't have.

Cheers drever, fingers crossed

TD_Gunner     22 Jun 10 10:22 
this race usually suits prominent runners doesn't it? Or am I making that up ?

Like Chiberta King, Overturn and Bernie The Bolt at the moment.

TD,as this is the only race the woeful Som Tala has managed to win since Sept '06 i think you can safely say that getting a low draw,getting the lead,slowing it right up to a walk,then 'kicking' (i use that term lightly) for home turning up the straight can enable horses of any ability to win this ridiculously biased contest......

Disclaimer: i had my plums on Wells Lyrical last year.

Seriously though,it does seem that the configuration of the course (very sharp bend after about 3f) can make it incredibly hard for hold up performers IF there is a poor pace - that may not be so much of an issue this year though,but i'd still be very wary of backing a hold up horse tbh.

like the look of macarther if he runs, the obrien cast off as run well in some top class races in the past, still unexposed at 2 miles, and the trainer as landed a touch in the ebor, at a big price, cant see it going off at 40/1 if it goes to post.

Andrew Balding intends launching a dual assault on the John Smith's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday with Chiberta King and Bernie The Bolt.

Chiberta King was given a fine front-running ride by Jimmy Fortune to win at Newmarket last time out, while Bernie The Bolt was unplaced in the Chester Cup on his only start so far this season.

"They've both been in good form and they shouldn't be inconvenienced by the prospect of fast ground," the Kingsclere trainer told At The Races.

"The question mark for Chiberta King is stepping up to two miles for the first time, but he shapes like a horse who should appreciate the trip. He should be comfortable on the ground as long as it isn't too fast.

"He's gone up a fair bit up in the weights - he's running off a mark of 103, which is slightly more taxing, but he's in great nick and if he stays the two miles he should have every chance.

"Bernie The Bolt has taken a bit of time to come to himself, but we're a lot happier with his work now, but I still don't think he will be at his best until the autumn.

"Having said that he doesn't mind fast ground and he's come on a lot since Chester. I think the Cesarewitch will probably be his race, but handicaps like this are well worth winning so he'll be doing his best. He is the type of horse that Newmarket suits better.

"I'll be hopeful they go a strong gallop on Saturday as he stays very well and he could play a hand at the finish."

What do we make of that ?

I like BTB for this but a conundrum comment from the AB there ... strange. Puts me off a bit actually.

Shipmaster ?
Desert Sea ?

Not exactly well in based on a 5lb rise for placing in a pretty crap race but La Vecchia Scuola could still be improving (after 44 runs ) and worth following for me. Hopefully they put a better jock' on (no offence to Bartley), had Fallon, Buick and Queally riding for the stable recently and any of them will do nicely.

Be surprised if it wasn't there abouts anyway.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-6
5yo: 0-6-45
6yo: 3-7-35
7yo : 3-4-37
No very strong age trends though horses aged 6  have won 4 of the last 6.
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-20-114
Horses aged 6  have a combined record of 6-11-72

Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-125
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 8-11 or less

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-13-63
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-91
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-3-35
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had ran in a class 2 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or 4 but at no higher
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 708 (0-0-3)
Chester Cup winner (Mamlook): 9830 (0-1-4)
Ascot Stakes winner (Junior): 288 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot last time out, finishing 725
3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing 

Trainers
No trainer with an entry in the race this year has won it in the past decade.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-5) have found a win and a place from just 5 representatives.
Alan Swinbank (0-2-3) and Richard Fahey (0-2-5) have both filled a couple of places in the past decade.
Brian Smart (0-1-1), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-1) and john Queally (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the places.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-5) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 6-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-6-46
5 of the last 7 winners were drawn 7 or lower.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 5 of the last 6 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
%u2022 Aged 6
%u2022 Carrying 8-11 or less
%u2022 Officially rated 85 to 93
%u2022 Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
%u2022 Ran in last 55 days
%u2022 Ran 2 to 6 times this year
%u2022 Won over 1M 6F
%u2022 Drawn 1 to 7
%u2022 Priced 12/1 or higher

Sorry official ratings numbers are slightly off, these are correct:
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-13-66
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-94
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-3-26

And in summary age should be 6 or older (plus sign not showing for some reason)

Cheers Racecaller.

What's the total runners for 4yo though?

LVS seems to fit nicely. [:D]

Bit of money for LVS's stablemate.  Any reason why?

Elyaadi out which accounts for compressing at the top of the market.

Benjy Joined: 09 Sep 09
Cheers Racecaller.

What's the total runners for 4yo though?

4yo: 3-13-66

BTB - trainer put me right off
Shipmaster - won't run, ground

SO

I split stakes on DESERT SEA & DRUNKEN SAILOR

Both bigger than they should be, especially the latter at 16's

another sunny warm day today. possible showers predicted tomorrow though.

All prominent runners in the betting handed a decent draw.

Except overturn

Merchant of Dubai declared and stall 1

had some e/w 25s la veccy for now...

[:p]

Not a great draw. Brennan taking off 5lb could be handy I suppose but I would still have liked better, although most seem to be elsewhere.

25s will do.

Think La Vecchia Scuola should be well suited to this race and trained by the master. Taken some of the 25s. Also like Chiberta King.

mod & desert sea...both seem to be fairly priced also...

lumped sea @ chester...and the jock fooked it right up..
may have to cover...not sure yet..

dont know what to make of mod's jockey booking tbh

interesting jockey booking on Mamlook... Seb Sanders aboard... won for Pipe on Junior rides for him again as Hughes not riding...

Not sure Chester Cup winners have a good record in this, but hard to see this horse not placed in the top 4

mod need soft trev?

dont think he needs it cumpulsory
navan lto gd
2nd @ham gd
and his 3rd to ajhar newm on good.

i am assuming theres been some watering

Took 7/1 yesterday - hoping he'd get in. Happy with Deuville Flyer. Very impressed with his last two runs. Improving sort.

df for me too, nice weight, nice draw.

Pinpointed a few that I liked, but narrowed it down to two. Was put off by the draw for Overturn and think the Ebor may be a more suitable race for Chiberta, so have gone for...

La Vecchia Scuola - Very good front running mare, unlucky to be picked off last time springing back to form. Good record at the track and think she can win off this sort of mark. 25/1 is fair.

Deauville Flyer - Forgot how easily he won last time until I rewatched the York success. He cruised through the race and went clear with ease under hands on heels to win eased down. Sneaks in off bottom weight must go seriously close if it falls his way. 9/2 is fair enough.


Good luck.

The Couch has just tipped up ......................





DESERT SEA

Can it still win ?

Cosmic Sun out due to stiffness, nothing to do with being in trap 22 of course.

Looks to be a lot of pace on here,but with the sharp bend maybe theyll hold on to them longer,surely theyll commit earlier than usual,and a hold up one will pounce,but not one who shows form on stiff tracks?[Sandown, Bath,Salisbury etc.]where your horse has to "dig deep".
Here on this track,its about being able to gallop the longest at a decent speed [one that dont flatten out].Even having this point of view still leaves one pondering just exactly whose good enough!!!

Ponder no more - DF is the one.Has all the neccessary credentials.

think aim to prosper has to enter the picture after sneaking in...if not for a poor draw would have been a perfect stat fit.
has solid form in the top staying h/caps...think the blinkers are back on last worn in the cez when the trip was a tad to far.

I've backed Zaralabad. Will stay, was placed in the Irish Ces, has a decent weight, and the stable in very good form. Don't think he will mind the ground. 33's seems very big.

Chiberta King has best form by far. Should win given clear passage.

Fastbearform  Joined:
Replies: 769 25 Jun 10 22:41 
Good evening,

Damika has been in good form of late and knows how to win at this course and although running off top weight, must surely have at least decent ew claims. 8/1 is available and this one could tie in nicely with our other selection .

In the Northumberland Plate, I really did like the look of our friends selection, Deauville Flyer. However, in races like this, there is no way I would take the odds of 4/1, that's the way to the poor house imvho. There are better 4/1 shots running tomorrow in far less competetive races.

My selection for this despite not having the best of draws is Aaim To Prosper, which when I backed it ew at 25/1 looked to me to have a place in the bag at least, I just hope for the beast to be held up for a late challenge rather than trying to keep up early on.

Although the draw is irritating, I am sure if ATP (now 22/1) is held up early on (as I hope he will be from that draw) then I hope that he will be staying on strongly up the hill towards the finish.

How much overweight will Deauville Flyer carry ? 3lb ??

I like Aaim To Prosper too - hard to understand why he is 6-8 points bigger than Rajik based on Ascot Stakes form - watched the race again and stil could n't see a reason.

Stanstill is the other one that appeals.

fbf, the draw could be a blessing in disguise if you favour those tactics for ATP - might have no choice but to hold him up from 17.

sorry - should've read your last sentence properly - you already made that point.

The way I see his form, his best runs have been when held up, rather than trying to stay up with the pace. That Ascot form looks pretty good to me . 

I like DFs not the tablets. Not a great race for favs but got £15ew at 10s.It shuold be placed

No idea about this one tbh.

Ignoring his Chester run where he was drawn out wide Bernie The Bolt looked progressive before that, price is skinny enough though.

Tried a few quid EW on MaCarthur at 66/1. Trainer not had a winner for a while but Secret Asset got beat by Captain Dunne in a photo tonight, and PJ McDonald rides Newcastle well. The only STAT he fits is being 6yo

PJ Mc is on STANSTILL

I now have -

DESERT SEA
STANSTILL
DRUNKEN SAILOR

I am tempted by MAMLOOK who will be trained to the absolute minute for this and who has been laid out for it.

Can he give the weight away ?

DF does look lobbed in but theres no price there at all now considering the ground.

Watching mamlook at Chester, there is no point throughout the last mile that Hughes could not have won. He takes a tug often enough and at the 2mile pole could have been sent forward. You have to feel this course will suit even better and the drop in trip with a fast pace is similar to the hurdles h'caps he ran in, coming through off the pace.

As said below, Seb is a proper booking here and he should be cantering in behind 6th or 7th before moving through. Of course there may be one or two lower down that nick it through a lightweight but I cant have any of those that finished behind him at Chester, and Pipe indicates that Hughes said the faster the better.

10-1 Laddies looks wrong

GL

I think Robert Winston is has chosen the wrong horse, as he surely could have ridden Stanstill who is lightly raced and probably still on the up.

Swinbank has come fairly close twice before in this race (out of 3 trys) and he as he nearly tops my ratings and fits the profile I'm looking for, so Stanstill should at least place again, @17/1 looks a good price to me.

Good luck all who back him...

Chester has tipped this up each way on his site - been laid out for the race as we all know, ignore double digit on a Pipey target at your peril IMVHO. Would love to see him do it.

Value at 12.5 on here IT IS INDEED.

(I now have 4 and that's it from me - was able to get stakes (and a bit more) from Captain Coke and Real Buddy Star last night)


DESERT SEA
STANSTILL
DRUNKEN SAILOR
MAMLOOK

PJ Mc is on FIRE by the way all ...

this 3.05 - you have to have more than one stab you really do.

i don't believe it -

2nd
3rd
& 4th

Talk about gutted, any one of them would have done. W/D Overturn backers though

ul harchi

Grrrrrr!!! Overturn looked almost perfect on the trends but threw him out because of the draw. Gutting!

Tks lads, I think the funniest dismissal was from 'the couch' who used the old classic that he'd been drawn in the car park and couldn't win from there ;)

What price the winner for the World Hurdle?

What overturn World Hurdle ? Surely not a certain stayer no ?

who rode MacCarthur then ?

He ran a smashing rac imo , finished 7th in the end.

No chance in WH imo.

wd btw Harch.

thanks sint - just a shame i didn't nail down the 1st place !

Funny how you can feel more confident without winning sometimes though

What overturn World Hurdle ? Surely not a certain stayer no ?

Nothing certain, but I'd take a decent price about him after making all in a hot flat hcap over 2 miles, from a bad draw, then keeping on very strongly.

Hugely likeable horse but his run in the Swinton did not suggest to me at least that he would appreciate another mile.

w/d plat..