Horse Antepost

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Terry Venables
26 May 10 17:33
Date Joined: 29 May 03
| Topic/replies: 1,242 | Blogger: Terry Venables's blog

Couple of interesting Jumps entered.

Whack off [;)]
Pause Switch to Standard View JOHN SMITH´S NORTHUMBERLAND...
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Report Far From Trouble May 26, 2010 6:52 PM BST
*sighs* Do I have to post here as well? Plain

Cosmic Sun
Merchant Of Dubai

shortlisted at very early stage
Report Terry Venables May 26, 2010 6:56 PM BST
just put it up on other side for ARLaugh
Report morpteh mackem May 26, 2010 7:50 PM BST
kin hell terence , you do like your handicaps.
Report Terry Venables May 26, 2010 8:39 PM BST

Like the challenge of trying to dig one out at a nice price Laugh
Report askari1 May 26, 2010 8:45 PM BST
Looks a classy race this yr w/ Munsef, Tastahil and Aajel entered. I will probably go for something off less. Chiberta King has to be the most progressive feasibly weighted horse, though I also like the idea of Cosmic Sun gradually stepping up in trip. Merchant of Dubai has if I recall a stiff flat mark for running over slightly shorter.

Gl all
Report morpteh mackem May 26, 2010 9:03 PM BST
terence ,i like my lowly weighted 3 yr olds from a southern stable. preferably with a low draw .
Report aft May 27, 2010 7:54 PM BST
When are the weights published? I shall be interested to see how Rajik gets in.
Report drever1 June 1, 2010 9:18 AM BST
I like Merchant of Dubai. A real galloper. He has won over 1m7f at Newmarket. But has speed to win class 2 over 1m4f.
Report morpteh mackem June 19, 2010 9:34 PM BST
ttt- keep terence happy
Report Me2 June 19, 2010 10:29 PM BST
Taking a simplistic view. Bernie The Bolt was ante-post favourite for the Chester Cup, despite the trainer saying a week beforehand that the horse hadn't come in his coat.  Expecting the horse to put up a much improved performance, at a bigger price.
Report morpteh mackem June 20, 2010 8:44 AM BST
forecast looks good for the week. starting off today, nice and sunny, breezy. not too warm.
Report sintonian June 20, 2010 9:30 AM BST
I liked Montaff for this but Channon has put the Kibosh on that having run him in the Gold Cup for a humilating 250 length thumping!!
Report nineteen points June 20, 2010 9:58 AM BST
red cadeaux?
Report platinni June 20, 2010 10:15 AM BST
merchant of dubai pisssses in know?
Report Prescription Drugs June 20, 2010 11:48 AM BST
any news if Elyaadi is coming back over? Even if he is, I'd hope he's ridden slightly closer to the pace.

He'll need a miracle to get if but if he does, Deauville Flyer must have a massive shout
Report forgotmyusername June 20, 2010 6:04 PM BST
Think Overturn has a huge chance in this. Massively improving over hurdles and was going the right way when last seen on the flat. Presently number 32 in the list so should make the cut off point of 20. Forecast dry week ahead is the icing on the cake.
Report redal2 June 20, 2010 8:28 PM BST
Chiberta King for me. I think they've looked after his mark nicely since he won LTO and from a stable that knows how to win good handicaps he's certainly at the top of my list.
Report redal2 June 20, 2010 8:32 PM BST
Strewth I just realised he went up 9lbs for that last race. Maybe not so well in as I thought Sad
Report Bobby Dazzler June 21, 2010 12:51 AM BST
Bernie The Bolt
Report morpteh mackem June 21, 2010 8:06 AM BST
weather update- nice warm sunny day already. forecast to stay that way for next few days ( at least )
Report Dark Destroyer June 21, 2010 2:56 PM BST
Prices filtering through.

Deauville Flyer Love
Report Dark Destroyer June 21, 2010 4:33 PM BST

Touch and go if he gets a run but 10/1 is far bigger than I was expecting.
Report t_mar June 21, 2010 5:07 PM BST
Merchant of Dubai be ok on fast ground???
Report amaru June 21, 2010 5:13 PM BST
Red Cadeaux for me here, unlucky run in the Chester Cup and unlikely to find as much trouble in-running  here.  Wont play antepost tho as ground is an issue it seems, if its too fast he wont run.
Report amaru June 21, 2010 5:18 PM BST
t_mar, this is from the quotes section of the RP for the horse.  It may be irrelevant to be honest as it was as a 2yo but thought it may be of use. Chances are it wont be as much of an issue for him as a 5yo.

11Oct08 Musselburgh   ( 14 GS ,RPR98 )
He's a tough horse and he stays well, so we decided to make it a decent test of stamina. - P J McDonald; He's a horse who takes his racing particularly well, but took time to come back after getting jarred up on fast ground last summer at Newcastle. He'll go for the November Handicap now. - William Powrie (owners' rep.)
Report t_mar June 21, 2010 5:26 PM BST
Cheers amaru.. ground the only slight concern for me, dont think I cant resist the 20/1 though :)
Report elise June 21, 2010 10:17 PM BST
trying to decide on what gets in at the bottom, couple low down i like but not looking likely to get a run
Report Win only - Sp only June 21, 2010 10:36 PM BST
overturn. end of fred
Report drever1 June 22, 2010 8:47 AM BST
t_mar... I can't see Merchant of Dubai running unless there is some rain. He won't run with firm in the ground.
Report sintonian June 22, 2010 10:07 AM BST
McCain said: "It is a bit of a shot in the dark but Overturn has the profile of a horse that could run well in it. We swerved Ascot to go there, and this has been the plan for a while.

"I think the race will suit him. It is a strong-galloping two miles and it should be right up his street - he races prominently and I don't see any reason why Newcastle shouldn't suit him."

Opinion Poll tops the weights but trainer Michael Jarvis said on Monday: "He's also in the Curragh Cup and he is ground dependent. The forecast doesn't look favourable for him and he might end up going nowhere."

James Armstrong, clerk of the course at Newcastle, whose three-day Plate meeting kicks off on Thursday, said on Monday: "We will be watering to maintain good to firm ground.

"We put 10mm on the straight course yesterday and 10mm on the round course today.

"There is a fantastic grass cover and we should be able to start the meeting on Thursday on ground with no jar in it. We can water before the evening card on Friday if we need to."
Report t_mar June 22, 2010 10:10 AM BST
Backed MoD yesterday (cos I'm a mug obv)... I am worried about ground, however SL site reported the ground at Navan g/f firm in places?! So hopefully if he does run he wont be too inconvenienced... Obv the trainer pulling it out for fear of injury is a possibility although given how potentially well in MoD is will there be a better oppurtunity to bag a big hcap.. the plan was cup races after the Navan run.
Report TD_Gunner June 22, 2010 10:22 AM BST
this race usually suits prominent runners doesn't it? Or am I making that up ?

Like Chiberta King, Overturn and Bernie The Bolt at the moment.
Report drever1 June 22, 2010 10:50 AM BST
t_mar.... Navan ground was good except for the final 1 1/2 furlongs which was concrete. He just got away with it. But he won't be risked in that again. Although as stated above there is a good cover of grass, which Navan didn't have.
Report t_mar June 22, 2010 10:55 AM BST
Cheers drever, fingers crossed
Report top div June 22, 2010 11:35 AM BST
TD_Gunner     22 Jun 10 10:22 
this race usually suits prominent runners doesn't it? Or am I making that up ?

Like Chiberta King, Overturn and Bernie The Bolt at the moment.

TD,as this is the only race the woeful Som Tala has managed to win since Sept '06 i think you can safely say that getting a low draw,getting the lead,slowing it right up to a walk,then 'kicking' (i use that term lightly) for home turning up the straight can enable horses of any ability to win this ridiculously biased contest......

Disclaimer: i had my plums on Wells Lyrical last year.

Seriously though,it does seem that the configuration of the course (very sharp bend after about 3f) can make it incredibly hard for hold up performers IF there is a poor pace - that may not be so much of an issue this year though,but i'd still be very wary of backing a hold up horse tbh.
Report blackcat June 22, 2010 9:10 PM BST
like the look of macarther if he runs, the obrien cast off as run well in some top class races in the past, still unexposed at 2 miles, and the trainer as landed a touch in the ebor, at a big price, cant see it going off at 40/1 if it goes to post.
Report harchibald June 22, 2010 10:06 PM BST
Andrew Balding intends launching a dual assault on the John Smith's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday with Chiberta King and Bernie The Bolt.

Chiberta King was given a fine front-running ride by Jimmy Fortune to win at Newmarket last time out, while Bernie The Bolt was unplaced in the Chester Cup on his only start so far this season.

"They've both been in good form and they shouldn't be inconvenienced by the prospect of fast ground," the Kingsclere trainer told At The Races.

"The question mark for Chiberta King is stepping up to two miles for the first time, but he shapes like a horse who should appreciate the trip. He should be comfortable on the ground as long as it isn't too fast.

"He's gone up a fair bit up in the weights - he's running off a mark of 103, which is slightly more taxing, but he's in great nick and if he stays the two miles he should have every chance.

"Bernie The Bolt has taken a bit of time to come to himself, but we're a lot happier with his work now, but I still don't think he will be at his best until the autumn.

"Having said that he doesn't mind fast ground and he's come on a lot since Chester. I think the Cesarewitch will probably be his race, but handicaps like this are well worth winning so he'll be doing his best. He is the type of horse that Newmarket suits better.

"I'll be hopeful they go a strong gallop on Saturday as he stays very well and he could play a hand at the finish."
Report harchibald June 22, 2010 10:07 PM BST
What do we make of that ?

I like BTB for this but a conundrum comment from the AB there ... strange. Puts me off a bit actually.

Shipmaster ?
Desert Sea ?
Report Benjy June 22, 2010 10:58 PM BST
Not exactly well in based on a 5lb rise for placing in a pretty crap race but La Vecchia Scuola could still be improving (after 44 runs Laugh ) and worth following for me. Hopefully they put a better jock' on (no offence to Bartley), had Fallon, Buick and Queally riding for the stable recently and any of them will do nicely.

Be surprised if it wasn't there abouts anyway.
Report Racecaller08 June 23, 2010 12:38 AM BST
Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-6
5yo: 0-6-45
6yo: 3-7-35
7yo : 3-4-37
No very strong age trends though horses aged 6  have won 4 of the last 6.
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-20-114
Horses aged 6  have a combined record of 6-11-72

Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-125
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 8-11 or less

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-13-63
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-91
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-3-35
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had ran in a class 2 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or 4 but at no higher
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 708 (0-0-3)
Chester Cup winner (Mamlook): 9830 (0-1-4)
Ascot Stakes winner (Junior): 288 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot last time out, finishing 725
3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing 

No trainer with an entry in the race this year has won it in the past decade.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-5) have found a win and a place from just 5 representatives.
Alan Swinbank (0-2-3) and Richard Fahey (0-2-5) have both filled a couple of places in the past decade.
Brian Smart (0-1-1), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-1) and john Queally (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the places.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-5) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 6-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-6-46
5 of the last 7 winners were drawn 7 or lower.

7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 5 of the last 6 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
%u2022 Aged 6
%u2022 Carrying 8-11 or less
%u2022 Officially rated 85 to 93
%u2022 Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
%u2022 Ran in last 55 days
%u2022 Ran 2 to 6 times this year
%u2022 Won over 1M 6F
%u2022 Drawn 1 to 7
%u2022 Priced 12/1 or higher
Report Racecaller08 June 23, 2010 12:51 AM BST
Sorry official ratings numbers are slightly off, these are correct:
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-13-66
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-94
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-3-26

And in summary age should be 6 or older (plus sign not showing for some reason)
Report Benjy June 23, 2010 11:23 AM BST
Cheers Racecaller.

What's the total runners for 4yo though?
Report Benjy June 23, 2010 11:32 AM BST
LVS seems to fit nicely. [:D]
Report twinter June 23, 2010 11:35 AM BST
Bit of money for LVS's stablemate.  Any reason why?
Report Dark Destroyer June 23, 2010 12:44 PM BST
Elyaadi out which accounts for compressing at the top of the market.
Report Racecaller08 June 23, 2010 3:36 PM BST
Benjy Joined: 09 Sep 09
Cheers Racecaller.

What's the total runners for 4yo though?

4yo: 3-13-66
Report harchibald June 23, 2010 9:01 PM BST
BTB - trainer put me right off
Shipmaster - won't run, ground



Both bigger than they should be, especially the latter at 16's
Report morpteh mackem June 23, 2010 9:06 PM BST
another sunny warm day today. possible showers predicted tomorrow though.
Report twinter June 24, 2010 11:14 AM BST
All prominent runners in the betting handed a decent draw.
Report SEE PIGEON June 24, 2010 11:19 AM BST
Except overturn LaughSad
Report hemsby June 24, 2010 11:58 AM BST
Merchant of Dubai declared and stall 1 Happy
Report trev w June 24, 2010 1:04 PM BST
had some e/w 25s la veccy for now...
Report Benjy June 24, 2010 1:17 PM BST

Not a great draw. Brennan taking off 5lb could be handy I suppose but I would still have liked better, although most seem to be elsewhere.

25s will do.
Report TD_Gunner June 24, 2010 1:45 PM BST
Think La Vecchia Scuola should be well suited to this race and trained by the master. Taken some of the 25s. Also like Chiberta King.
Report trev w June 24, 2010 2:14 PM BST
mod & desert sea...both seem to be fairly priced also...

lumped sea @ chester...and the jock fooked it right up..
may have to cover...not sure yet..

dont know what to make of mod's jockey booking tbhConfused
Report IrisDeBalme June 24, 2010 2:14 PM BST
interesting jockey booking on Mamlook... Seb Sanders aboard... won for Pipe on Junior rides for him again as Hughes not riding...

Not sure Chester Cup winners have a good record in this, but hard to see this horse not placed in the top 4
Report platinni June 24, 2010 3:21 PM BST
mod need soft trev?
Report trev w June 24, 2010 3:49 PM BST
dont think he needs it cumpulsory
navan lto gd
2nd @ham gd
and his 3rd to ajhar newm on good.

i am assuming theres been some wateringConfused
Report Facts June 24, 2010 4:14 PM BST
Took 7/1 yesterday - hoping he'd get in. Happy with Deuville Flyer. Very impressed with his last two runs. Improving sort.
Report morpteh mackem June 24, 2010 7:43 PM BST
df for me too, nice weight, nice draw.
Report TD_Gunner June 24, 2010 9:00 PM BST
Pinpointed a few that I liked, but narrowed it down to two. Was put off by the draw for Overturn and think the Ebor may be a more suitable race for Chiberta, so have gone for...

La Vecchia Scuola - Very good front running mare, unlucky to be picked off last time springing back to form. Good record at the track and think she can win off this sort of mark. 25/1 is fair.

Deauville Flyer - Forgot how easily he won last time until I rewatched the York success. He cruised through the race and went clear with ease under hands on heels to win eased down. Sneaks in off bottom weight must go seriously close if it falls his way. 9/2 is fair enough.

Good luck.
Report harchibald June 24, 2010 10:04 PM BST
The Couch has just tipped up ......................


Can it still win ?
Report Tatie Baron June 25, 2010 12:44 PM BST
Cosmic Sun out due to stiffness, nothing to do with being in trap 22 of course.
Report pipedreamer June 25, 2010 5:04 PM BST
Looks to be a lot of pace on here,but with the sharp bend maybe theyll hold on to them longer,surely theyll commit earlier than usual,and a hold up one will pounce,but not one who shows form on stiff tracks?[Sandown, Bath,Salisbury etc.]where your horse has to "dig deep".
Here on this track,its about being able to gallop the longest at a decent speed [one that dont flatten out].Even having this point of view still leaves one pondering just exactly whose good enough!!!
Report Facts June 25, 2010 5:06 PM BST
Ponder no more - DF is the one.Has all the neccessary credentials.
Report trev w June 25, 2010 6:17 PM BST
think aim to prosper has to enter the picture after sneaking in...if not for a poor draw would have been a perfect stat fit.
has solid form in the top staying h/caps...think the blinkers are back on last worn in the cez when the trip was a tad to far.
Report Beryl June 25, 2010 9:44 PM BST
I've backed Zaralabad. Will stay, was placed in the Irish Ces, has a decent weight, and the stable in very good form. Don't think he will mind the ground. 33's seems very big.
Report johnnyrant June 25, 2010 9:47 PM BST
Chiberta King has best form by far. Should win given clear passage.
Report Fastbearform June 25, 2010 10:44 PM BST
Fastbearform  Joined:
Replies: 769 25 Jun 10 22:41 
Good evening,

Damika has been in good form of late and knows how to win at this course and although running off top weight, must surely have at least decent ew claims. 8/1 is available and this one could tie in nicely with our other selection .

In the Northumberland Plate, I really did like the look of our friends selection, Deauville Flyer. However, in races like this, there is no way I would take the odds of 4/1, that's the way to the poor house imvho. There are better 4/1 shots running tomorrow in far less competetive races.

My selection for this despite not having the best of draws is Aaim To Prosper, which when I backed it ew at 25/1 looked to me to have a place in the bag at least, I just hope for the beast to be held up for a late challenge rather than trying to keep up early on.

Although the draw is irritating, I am sure if ATP (now 22/1) is held up early on (as I hope he will be from that draw) then I hope that he will be staying on strongly up the hill towards the finish.

Report Sir Epicure Mammon June 25, 2010 11:15 PM BST
How much overweight will Deauville Flyer carry ? 3lb ??
Report ReaseHeath June 25, 2010 11:18 PM BST
I like Aaim To Prosper too - hard to understand why he is 6-8 points bigger than Rajik based on Ascot Stakes form - watched the race again and stil could n't see a reason.

Stanstill is the other one that appeals.
Report ReaseHeath June 25, 2010 11:21 PM BST
fbf, the draw could be a blessing in disguise if you favour those tactics for ATP - might have no choice but to hold him up from 17.
Report ReaseHeath June 25, 2010 11:22 PM BST
sorry - should've read your last sentence properly - you already made that point.
Report Fastbearform June 25, 2010 11:28 PM BST

The way I see his form, his best runs have been when held up, rather than trying to stay up with the pace. That Ascot form looks pretty good to me .  Happy
Report CRAIGIEBOY June 25, 2010 11:35 PM BST
I like DFs not the tablets. Not a great race for favs but got £15ew at 10s.It shuold be placed
Report sintonian June 26, 2010 12:11 AM BST
No idea about this one tbh.

Ignoring his Chester run where he was drawn out wide Bernie The Bolt looked progressive before that, price is skinny enough though.

Tried a few quid EW on MaCarthur at 66/1. Trainer not had a winner for a while but Secret Asset got beat by Captain Dunne in a photo tonight, and PJ McDonald rides Newcastle well. The only STAT he fits is being 6yo Laugh
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 9:18 AM BST

I now have -


I am tempted by MAMLOOK who will be trained to the absolute minute for this and who has been laid out for it.

Can he give the weight away ?
Report DONEMYLOT June 26, 2010 9:37 AM BST
DF does look lobbed in but theres no price there at all now considering the ground.

Watching mamlook at Chester, there is no point throughout the last mile that Hughes could not have won. He takes a tug often enough and at the 2mile pole could have been sent forward. You have to feel this course will suit even better and the drop in trip with a fast pace is similar to the hurdles h'caps he ran in, coming through off the pace.

As said below, Seb is a proper booking here and he should be cantering in behind 6th or 7th before moving through. Of course there may be one or two lower down that nick it through a lightweight but I cant have any of those that finished behind him at Chester, and Pipe indicates that Hughes said the faster the better.

10-1 Laddies looks wrong

Report cats11 June 26, 2010 12:14 PM BST
I think Robert Winston is has chosen the wrong horse, as he surely could have ridden Stanstill who is lightly raced and probably still on the up.

Swinbank has come fairly close twice before in this race (out of 3 trys) and he as he nearly tops my ratings and fits the profile I'm looking for, so Stanstill should at least place again, @17/1 looks a good price to me.

Good luck all who back him...
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 12:15 PM BST
Chester has tipped this up each way on his site - been laid out for the race as we all know, ignore double digit on a Pipey target at your peril IMVHO. Would love to see him do it.

Value at 12.5 on here IT IS INDEED.

(I now have 4 and that's it from me - was able to get stakes (and a bit more) from Captain Coke and Real Buddy Star last night)

Report harchibald June 26, 2010 12:15 PM BST
PJ Mc is on FIRE by the way all ...

this 3.05 - you have to have more than one stab you really do.
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 3:12 PM BST
i don't believe it -

& 4th

Talk about gutted, any one of them would have done. W/D Overturn backers though
Report platinni June 26, 2010 3:19 PM BST
ul harchi
Report Lumberg June 26, 2010 3:20 PM BST
Grrrrrr!!! Overturn looked almost perfect on the trends but threw him out because of the draw. Gutting!
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 3:24 PM BST
Tks lads, I think the funniest dismissal was from 'the couch' who used the old classic that he'd been drawn in the car park and couldn't win from there ;)
Report Steeplechasing June 26, 2010 3:34 PM BST
What price the winner for the World Hurdle?
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 4:24 PM BST
What overturn World Hurdle ? Surely not a certain stayer no ?
Report sintonian June 26, 2010 4:28 PM BST
who rode MacCarthur then ?

He ran a smashing rac imo , finished 7th in the end.
Report sintonian June 26, 2010 4:28 PM BST
No chance in WH imo.

wd btw Harch.
Report harchibald June 26, 2010 4:29 PM BST
thanks sint - just a shame i didn't nail down the 1st place !

Funny how you can feel more confident without winning sometimes though
Report Steeplechasing June 26, 2010 5:03 PM BST
What overturn World Hurdle ? Surely not a certain stayer no ?

Nothing certain, but I'd take a decent price about him after making all in a hot flat hcap over 2 miles, from a bad draw, then keeping on very strongly.
Report Dark Destroyer June 26, 2010 5:35 PM BST
Hugely likeable horse but his run in the Swinton did not suggest to me at least that he would appreciate another mile.
Report sofiakenny June 26, 2010 5:38 PM BST
w/d plat..
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