Horse Antepost
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Denmania!
Surely too big at 13/8? |
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FOTP due a win.
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:D
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Denman, love that hoss. I think he's a good price, he has had plenty of rest since Cheltenham and Punchestown is not Aintree.
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my take on the guinness gold cup
Denman - ground course hard race lto enough reasons to oppose at the price Cooldine - ground/ form/hard race lto? Joncol - ground Jy Vole - form behind albertas lto looks decent when badly hampered price a bit skinny now though Tranquil Sea - ground & freshness worries Barbers Shop - class form worries War Of Attrition - how many horses win a g1 race just before they are due to retire? Notre Pere - ground, form Planet of Sound - trip? class? Rare Bob - 3/3 at the course including a g1 last year beating cooldine & joncol, not had a hard season unlike a lot of these and will handle the ground.trainer form decent Siegemaster - ground Follow The Plan - trip Rare Bob has plenty in his favour tomorrow unlike a few of these and with being 3/3 at the course (chasing) 33/1 looks huge 2pts e/w 33/1 also like fantoche in the 640 who will appreciate the better ground and is on a decent mark, a lot of the opposition need it soft no prices as yet |
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Final Approach looks an interesting one in the 2nd. Think he should be nice and fresh with the Fred Winter horses dominating the market he might be a nice price.
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3.40 - Rahan De Marcigny - Think this horse has been crying out for Good ground, he won an AQPS race (french bumper) on Good fto.
His sire Network has had a couple of winners in the Uk recently and they have won on Good ground. The form of his last few runs have worked out well. Two starts ago he was 3rd to Beroni, splitting Farringdon - 4runs since - 4,5,2,2 - both 2nds iunder top weight; and Slievecorragh, who won 2/4 starts since. Nto he was 4th to Moville, the 2nd Jigalo has won 2/4 since including the big hcap hurdle today; the 3rd Stevie Mac was 2nd at Fairyhouse under top weight. The stable form is a slight concern, as is the presence of Sivota in the race, but T Carroll has a good record for Noel Meade and I think he could be worth a nice ew investment. |
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Denmania? A loser in five of his last six. Laying E/W.
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C2 - he hasn't put two good runs back to back since his GC win!!!
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Joncol- class will see him through like golden silver 2day nolan wont run him if he aint happy wid the ground 6/1 massive price um lumping on backed this horse from day 1 aint stopping now ;)
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Jeez, how the mighty are fallen. Notre Pere won this with imperious ease a year ago, and now he's trading at 48.
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Hope i'm wrong, but don't think this is the shrewdest move by the connections of Denman,everything is wrong imo :|
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siegemaster spaff
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Can someone say something about Hobbs? Does he go for Quixotic options? With question marks about the others, I'm slightly interested in Planet of Sound at a nice price.
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Joncol e/w at 6/1 looks a great bet. I don't think he needs soft ground, Nolan has always said he hopes he's not just a soft ground horse, but since he's never raced on good ground then we don't know. He'll be fresh and he's never been out of the places in his career. He's an improving horse and think he'll surprise a few tomorrow as almost all his rivals raced at Cheltenham
Joncol e/w @ 6/1 |
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Want to take on Denman.
Right handed track Very Hard Race last time Ground problem is...not much running for u if you lay him. |
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Nibb,good shout,better ground jobbie ;)
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Also why is Cooldine - who has ended behind Joncol all 3 times they have faced eachother, and who ran in the Gold Cup - shorter odds than Joncol?
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CV,ground ?
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I suppose at least Denman ran his race last time. Many of these are badly out of form. Based on their last runs I could only make a case for Joncol and J'Vole. The former probably wants soft (though granted not proven) and is held by quite some way on a line through What A Friend.
Was waiting for JVole to reappear after Ryanair but not sure a step up in trip is whats needed. Was hoping for a big price but at single figures is not for me. There are track concerns with Denman but he has won right handed quite a few times. The Kempton run was more likely to be the flat tight track rather than the direction imo. Not to mention he looked awful in the paddock that day and was clearly below his best and would have probably been beat by MDB at Newbury! |
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4.55 - Ad Idem - First off, I completely disagree with the Rp lightspot here, the horse does not require a bog. Like many horses in Ireland heavy ground is what he has to deal with. He is by Kayf Tara and should appreciate Good, he was also 2nd on Good in the Pt2Pt bumper at fairyhouse last yr, finishing ahead of some useful types.
Since then he has finished 3rd in a bumper to Hellyhunter(finished 19L ahead of HH lto) who has won twice since; 4th in a mdn Hurdle to Ballymak; 2nd in a mdn hurdle to Mr Cracker - he was 3rd to Luska Lad & Blackstairsmountain at Fairyhouse - all 3 runs were on Hvy or Sft/Hvy. He then won his mdn hurdle over 22f on soft, with the field well strung out including nto winner lady Reberto in 4th. Lto he finished a close 2nd to the useful Quito De La roque, with the front three pulling 16L clear of the 4th. I don't think he quite got home in the hvy. He's not badly treated at the weights either, if anything he could be very well in after posting a 144 lto. The trainer is doing well with a small string. Looks a solid ew bet. |
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tt, why does Joncol need good ground? Nolan has said he hopes he's not just a good ground horse. There is no evidence either way.
I think with Denman in the field there is going to be a staying test, one way or another so you can rule out J'Y Vole, Planet of Sound, Barbers, Tranquil Sea... but that suits a fresh, gutsy, progressive Joncol. I'd say stayers like Siegemaster, WOA might benefit from Denman's pace, as will a fresh Joncol with similar tactics to his Irish Hennessy win. |
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Cv - its because he's such a big framed horse, and still filling that frame out, they didn't want to risk jarring him on anything w/o plenty of cut in it. Imo like all good jumpers better ground should suit him, that gnd today looked perfect, add some water tonight and it'll be fine.
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Joncol doesn't need soft/heavy ground, his dam sire sired Hedgehunter/Mntys Pass/It Takes Time, so there's every reason to suggest he might even improve for the ground. The reason there's doubts is due to his size, but I fear that that was more down to last season and the cotton wool approach by Nolan.
There's enough on the times today to suggest for me that it's not overly quick, and might be on the slower side of good. |
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is a horse as big as joncol going to like fast ground?
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CVByrne 20 Apr 20:45
tt, why does Joncol need good ground? Nolan has said he hopes he's not just a good ground horse. There is no evidence either way. I seem to recall Nolan being worried about good ground for his horse in that programe about his stable. |
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ground was on slow side of good today. That is why FPTP finished second :)
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I know why they kept him to soft ground and why Nolan has played it safe with him, like no hurdles campaign. But he's grown up now, he's 7 and I think Denman aside he is the pick of the field.
131 Punchestown form too so likes the track, I remember he made novicey jumping mistakes in the 3miler last year with AP up for the first time |
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« 6:40 » Boylesports.com Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m1f Soft 17 fences
£54,174.76, £16,601.94, £7,864.08, £2,621.36, £1,747.57 « 1 Rare Bob (IRE) 7/1 7 11-10 D T Hughes 140 * * » b/br g Bob Back (USA) - Cut Ahead (Kalaglow) P W Flood Chased leader, 4th after 4th, improved to 2nd again 9th, pressed leader 6 out, ridden to challenge entering straight, led 2 out, kept on well under pressure from before last (op 10/1) « 2 1¾ Gone To Lunch (IRE) 16/1 9 11-10 J Scott |
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I see Denman winning this. I think it's just flat tracks he doesn't like not right handed. I'm not sure what happened at Newbury. Maybe not fully wound up b4 the Gold Cup?
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I agree Ground is an unknown for Joncol but it's the only worry. Trip, Course, Distance, and way the race will be run will all suit, as will the advantage of being run fresh and the horse is improving. I can't see him ending out of the first 3 for the first time tomorrow.
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3pts e/w Joncol at 6/1 with PaddyP.
Done. |
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I'm not 100% on this but I thought they said on that doc about Nolan's stable that the ground was riding more like good than soft when Joncol ran 3rd behind Rare Bob & Gone To Lunch last year - makes some sense given GTL's ground preference?
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He was still under a hand ride coming into the straight, lost all chance pecking at the 2nd last.
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Caught By Witness in the Champion Bumper @9/1 anyone, on a line through Cue Card he's got a great chance here! Was 6L 2nd to him fto giving him 11lbs(CC was only receiving 7lbs at Chelt). CBW won his next start.
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Charlton2005 20 Apr 20:18
Denmania? A loser in five of his last six. Laying E/W. Fto after long layoff at Kempton is forgivable. 2nd to the best horse of his generation who put up a 186 that day. Over the top like all gold cup runners at Aintree Jaw dropping second win under top weight Bad mistake and fall when would have won (albeit unimpressively) at Newbury. 2nd to impressive course specialist Imperial Commander who put up a 185 that day. Highest rated horse he faces tomorrow, Joncol 162, Cooldine 161. He's coming from a different world of class. He has them all murdered on form lines through WAF and on Gold Cup running (Cooldine). Joncol is a bet to nothing and over priced at 6/1, but Denman is still the tank and still one helluva good horse. It's not as simple as 1 win in last 6 runs C2 :) but good luck |
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NH FLAT RACE
2M , GRADE 1, RECENT TRENDS |
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:^0 like your style Nibber :^0
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