New Posts For Thread: Related contingency in ante-post betting?https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-bettingHi,This is probably a daft question, but can i back the same horse to win 2 ante-post races in a double? For instance Hurricane Fly is 4/9 to win the Irish Champion and 100/30 to win at the Festival. So the double pays c. 11/2. But if he wins next weOn the Hurricane Fly example the stranger thing was that he was priced up longer than Jezki and Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle before they met last month but was shorter for the race at Leonardtown.So the bookmakers before the race had both markethttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537635075#537635075On the Hurricane Fly example the stranger thing was that he was priced up longer than Jezki and Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle before they met last month but was shorter for the race at Leonardtown.So the bookmakers before the race had both marketSat, 25 Jan 2014 14:36:08 -0600I wonder what the special price was for KB to win today and the WH itselfhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537629319#537629319I wonder what the special price was for KB to win today and the WH itselfSat, 25 Jan 2014 09:49:57 -0600It would be good if Betfair put up some AP doubles markets on the exchange. It'd be interesting to see what the betting would be like.https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537611851#537611851It would be good if Betfair put up some AP doubles markets on the exchange. It'd be interesting to see what the betting would be like.Fri, 24 Jan 2014 11:00:55 -0600In the second leg of double, the punter is safe in the knowledge that he horse is good enough to have won the first race, therefore enhancing his chances in the second. The first event will directly impact the market for the second race, which meanshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537606521#537606521In the second leg of double, the punter is safe in the knowledge that he horse is good enough to have won the first race, therefore enhancing his chances in the second. The first event will directly impact the market for the second race, which meansFri, 24 Jan 2014 04:35:59 -0600But it only did that after we knew how good he was, and you shouldn't have had to pay that premium before anyone knew it! Yes you should because you haven't earned the right to get paid the full whack simply by putting the bet on before the first rachttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537602193#537602193But it only did that after we knew how good he was, and you shouldn't have had to pay that premium before anyone knew it! Yes you should because you haven't earned the right to get paid the full whack simply by putting the bet on before the first racThu, 23 Jan 2014 18:08:45 -0600I guess where we disagree then is how Hurricane Fly confirming superiority over Jezki and Our Conor a second time relates to him confirming superiority a third time. I chose the examples carefully as Rafael Nadal getting knocked out of one half of thhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537600955#537600955I guess where we disagree then is how Hurricane Fly confirming superiority over Jezki and Our Conor a second time relates to him confirming superiority a third time. I chose the examples carefully as Rafael Nadal getting knocked out of one half of thThu, 23 Jan 2014 16:33:47 -0600Maybe to try to explain a bit better what my argument is, I'll use the Bobs Worth argument.Do I believe his true odds of winning the Hennessy and Gold Cup were 54-1? for the sake of argument, assuming the bookies were right in their single odds for thttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537600691#537600691Maybe to try to explain a bit better what my argument is, I'll use the Bobs Worth argument.Do I believe his true odds of winning the Hennessy and Gold Cup were 54-1? for the sake of argument, assuming the bookies were right in their single odds for tThu, 23 Jan 2014 16:11:36 -0600I do understand where you're coming from, and where the bookies are coming from. My angle really is one of pure maths and probability, which may have an uneasy crossover with a lot of punting practices...I certainly see why the bookies don't want tohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537600643#537600643I do understand where you're coming from, and where the bookies are coming from. My angle really is one of pure maths and probability, which may have an uneasy crossover with a lot of punting practices...I certainly see why the bookies don't want toThu, 23 Jan 2014 16:08:14 -0600Tom,You seem a smart guy but it strikes me that in this case you seem to be ignoring the points I am making and seeing only what you want to see. I'm not going to beat a dead horse but I would finally ask you to consider these other examples where yohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537599909#537599909Tom,You seem a smart guy but it strikes me that in this case you seem to be ignoring the points I am making and seeing only what you want to see. I'm not going to beat a dead horse but I would finally ask you to consider these other examples where yoThu, 23 Jan 2014 15:28:27 -0600^ But duffy your reasoning is exactly why this is a corrupt practice!if it loses you'd lose either way so that is the point...No it's not!!!! This is why they get away with it, but it doesn't make the true chance of the horse winning both legs correchttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30180177/related-contingency-in-ante-post-betting?post_id=537598571#537598571^ But duffy your reasoning is exactly why this is a corrupt practice!if it loses you'd lose either way so that is the point...No it's not!!!! This is why they get away with it, but it doesn't make the true chance of the horse winning both legs correcThu, 23 Jan 2014 14:08:13 -0600