New Posts For Thread: Predicting outcomes is not possible due to unforeseen circumstanceshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstancesThe outcome of the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes today is a real headscratcher. Just how and why did Lucky Kristale win and why was it so impossible to predict - unless you had a Kristale ball. To give this a horse a chance of winning you would have toMaybe she will stay, but when they run as fast as that as early as that I have to have doubts. My guess is she just won't train on.https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533859507#533859507Maybe she will stay, but when they run as fast as that as early as that I have to have doubts. My guess is she just won't train on.Sat, 13 Jul 2013 16:32:15 -0500I'm happy with my Kiyoshi rating at 114 but I still have Sandiva as running 5lb below her Naas form so I'm sticking with her on 106. Rizeena now down to 101 for QM and Lucky Kristale 100 yesterday. And that is enough changes for one day.https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533859317#533859317I'm happy with my Kiyoshi rating at 114 but I still have Sandiva as running 5lb below her Naas form so I'm sticking with her on 106. Rizeena now down to 101 for QM and Lucky Kristale 100 yesterday. And that is enough changes for one day.Sat, 13 Jul 2013 16:23:10 -0500Kiyoshi is by Dubawi out of a 10f winner (stayed 12f) and she's a half-sister to a winning hurdler, so I'm sure that she will stay at least a mile next year. However, although I think Kiyoshi is the best two-year-old filly seen out so far this seasohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533859289#533859289Kiyoshi is by Dubawi out of a 10f winner (stayed 12f) and she's a half-sister to a winning hurdler, so I'm sure that she will stay at least a mile next year. However, although I think Kiyoshi is the best two-year-old filly seen out so far this seasoSat, 13 Jul 2013 16:20:41 -0500Kiyoshi is definitely a better filly, she ran faster at Ascot, which is even more impressive as it was over 6f not 5f. I thought Sandiva would probably win the race, I still believe she ran slightly below par but on reflection I can see I'd slightlyhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533859061#533859061Kiyoshi is definitely a better filly, she ran faster at Ascot, which is even more impressive as it was over 6f not 5f. I thought Sandiva would probably win the race, I still believe she ran slightly below par but on reflection I can see I'd slightlySat, 13 Jul 2013 16:07:48 -0500Well even after changes I would still have Rizeena running below form yesterday but just by not as much as before. I think I may have been hasty giving Lucky Kristale a 106 which is 17 higher than her albany run I then changed allowance to lower ratihttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533858991#533858991Well even after changes I would still have Rizeena running below form yesterday but just by not as much as before. I think I may have been hasty giving Lucky Kristale a 106 which is 17 higher than her albany run I then changed allowance to lower ratiSat, 13 Jul 2013 16:03:00 -0500SG, I think that Fig Roll is much more effective at 6f than 5f: she was outpaced over the minimum trip on her second start before running on strongly to win at Salisbury, she was again outpaced in the Queen Mary and could never reach the leaders, buthttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533858843#533858843SG, I think that Fig Roll is much more effective at 6f than 5f: she was outpaced over the minimum trip on her second start before running on strongly to win at Salisbury, she was again outpaced in the Queen Mary and could never reach the leaders, butSat, 13 Jul 2013 15:55:21 -0500I'm still sure Rizeena didn't run to form, the signs were there as soon as the stalls opened. I don't know about the American horse but of the others close behind there was only One Chance that I rated higher than anything she had done before. It's ahttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533858637#533858637I'm still sure Rizeena didn't run to form, the signs were there as soon as the stalls opened. I don't know about the American horse but of the others close behind there was only One Chance that I rated higher than anything she had done before. It's aSat, 13 Jul 2013 15:42:49 -0500It is possible the ground was riding a shade quicker for the last races on hunt cup day and that is why Annecdote in the last got such a good rating as well so perhaps I did overate the QM.Which also means I overrated the salisbury conditions race whhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533858325#533858325It is possible the ground was riding a shade quicker for the last races on hunt cup day and that is why Annecdote in the last got such a good rating as well so perhaps I did overate the QM.Which also means I overrated the salisbury conditions race whSat, 13 Jul 2013 15:28:24 -0500I would still rather back Flintshire than Al Kazeem Figgis. As I've seen enough of Al Kazeem to know he's not an arc winner imo but Flintshire has that bit of class about him.Kind of agree James, as before Ascot the best fillies race on my figures wahttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533857527#533857527I would still rather back Flintshire than Al Kazeem Figgis. As I've seen enough of Al Kazeem to know he's not an arc winner imo but Flintshire has that bit of class about him.Kind of agree James, as before Ascot the best fillies race on my figures waSat, 13 Jul 2013 14:57:05 -0500Going back to the original post, it was interesting to hear after the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes that trainer George Margarson felt he had 'undercooked' Lucky Kristale before the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and that the only reason his filly was ashttps://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30002341/predicting-outcomes-is-not-possible-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances?post_id=533857145#533857145Going back to the original post, it was interesting to hear after the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes that trainer George Margarson felt he had 'undercooked' Lucky Kristale before the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and that the only reason his filly was asSat, 13 Jul 2013 14:42:50 -0500