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ThePin
12 Jun 15 08:36
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Date Joined: 17 Mar 15
| Topic/replies: 26 | Blogger: ThePin's blog
My first ever post like this – and probably my last when you seasoned forum-ites slag it off!

Please be gentle….


Heat 1

I don’t think Ibiza got home in the last round. Not for me. Quietly runs the first two bends at Wimbledon like no other dog. It just appears to glide over the track. The T2 runner goes slightly right from the boxes before cutting in at the bend. Riverside Pat runs on, which is important in the context of this hear as there are a number of ‘trappers’. With that in mind, Geelo will lead Pat to the bend. Salonika won me a few quid in a previous heat (after-timing clang!) but I can’t back it in T5. I see Salonika and T6 getting in each other’s way at some point. My three to qualify: 2-3-4.

Heat 2

Badmoonrising has a tremendous draw and will surely lead on the rails. He’s 12s in places and that could look like a big price at the end of the race! He’s quickly away. Paradise Maverick, in T2, has the worst draw of all six dogs, with Jaytee Berlin, one of my antepost bets for outright glory, likely to head for the rails. I’d lay Paradise for a place. Visually it looks to me that the dog can move slightly right from the traps. That said, if Jaytee, in T3, breaks sharply, I can see him getting to the bend just behind T1 and then going clear by the third bend. Have I gone nuts, what with Droopys Nidge in the line-up? Well, no. I just think Coolavanny **** will hold it up ever so slightly. Incidentally, with Nidge’s liking for cutting in at the first bend, I’ll be looking to lay this dog for a few quid. Teds Last is one dog I really fear. If it could just find a pair of trapping boots. And it’s a Charlie Lister dog. I seem to recall some years ago Bandikot Tipoki (or one other of his mutts) finding tremendous trapping improvement to qualify from a particular heat when it needed a swift break. I can’t keep Teds Last out of the frame. My three to qualify: 3-6-4.

Heat 3

Swift Keith has a good draw and has been unlucky to come up against Eden the Kid and Clares Wonder in previous rounds - both decent dogs. I have a feeling Evanta Fantasy, in trap 2, will hinder kennel-mate Evanta Evita on its outside on the run to the first bend. I’ve crossed out Jolly Tricks. I love Leamaneigh Turbo. He’s a big dog and can outmuscle most rivals to the first bend. He’s fast out and I can see this race being between Turbo and Keith. Wotnofizz has an excellent draw and was just pipped by strong finisher Riverside Pat in the previous round when finishing third after trouble. He, too, is a swift trapper. My three to qualify: 1-5-6.

Heat 4

For me, Clares Wonder has to be the pick given that it’s housed in trap 6. The only wide runner in the race. There no pace in T5, so Clares should trap out okay to the first bend. I can see scrimmaging behind. On Alert didn’t particularly impress me in winning a four-dog heat in the last round but it does run on. Ascot Woodie is another of my antepost bets but it will do well to qualify from this heat. My three to qualify: 6-5-4.

Heat 5

For all the pre-race talk about this being a tasty heat, I think T1 will win quite easily. The Blitz (which I’ve backed in a nice double with Clares Wonder tomorrow) will get to the first bend ahead of anything else and once in front this dog won’t be pegged back. Lister’s Boyneside Fun is a huge price at 10-1. An excellent draw, I can see him finishing in the top three. One of Eden the Kid and Newinn Yolo will be going home unfortunately. My three: 1-6-4.

Heat 6

With slow starters Romany Rouge and Here We Go either side of him, Roxholme Ted has a good draw in T5. If it leads, will anything catch him? My feeling, from watching replays, is that T1 and T2 both go right at the boxes. I’ve crossed them both out - and T3. I can’t see Here We Go beating either T5 or T6 in a clean race. Rouge, for me, takes far too long to get going but should qualify from a not-to-hot heat. I’d be keen to lay it in a later round. My three: 5-6-4.

Heat 7

I’ve had a big bet on Go Ahead at 10-1 and will be backing it again on the night in a market without the fave. This dog would have been a lot closer to Quietly in the previous round had it not stumbled out of the traps, just like it did in the first round (reminds me of Westmead Lord – lazy at the traps but runs on). Anyway…..this dog will be finishing strongly and my feeling is that it only has to worry about the fave, Rio Quattro. ‘Only!’ Blonde Nipper, in T3, moves slightly right and T1 is out slowly, so Rio should get a good run to the first bend. Lenson Tiggy appeared to just get home in the previous round. I have a firm belief that Tynwald and Shotgun will clash over the first two bends – neither of them are fast out.

Heat 8

Another big bet for me, this time on Jaytee Jet in T6 at 8-1. Yes, I’m bonkers. Before you shoot me down, let me explain….Judging by its previous Derby heat runs, JJ has been crying out for this box. He goes ‘looking’ for the bunny on lid rise, moving right to the first bend. Viking Jack, on its inside, will lead but I don’t think JJ will need to find too much on the clock to beat it. Droopys Ward is a dog I love, having backed it numerous times last year during the rounds. He just seems too clever for me – in that he’s always looking to avoid trouble – in the early part of the race before unleashing the turbo. Against average dogs, he can make up the gap if anything breaks ahead of him. But like in the previous round, if something half-decent gets away, then he’s in trouble. If there’s any trouble up front, Droopys wins. I can’t see that happening in this race. I’ve crossed out Bubbly, Jet Stream and Gaytime, who would probably qualify in a weaker heat. My three: 6-1-5. 

Like I said, be gentle with me!

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Replies: 249
By:
Addy_D
When: 12 Jun 15 08:51
Not many get shot down for putting their opinions up....in fact i can only think of one person Laugh

when someone puts the time and effort up and explains their reasoning, i don't really think it matters if you are right or wrong - it's about opinions and the forum is there to discuss them.

for what its worth, i fear for farloe blitz. since switching sides i fear for anything that needs to ping in the red box. 6 has a draw and could lead if blitz isnt great away and 3/4 are top class and will poach any mistakes. not any juice in the price around evens at all for me. I've actually bet Eden The Kid in this race - I think I need a bit of luck to get round the bend, a better break than last week is important, but I can't get out of my head what he did to a 9/10 greyhound last week from the third bend. I went into that race thinking its all well and good doing it on the bunny as a pup and afford him a ton more respect after the second round.

Like half the forum I fancy clares quite strongly for reasons already mentioned but i think my strongest bet is rio quattro. It leads the red dog, nipper will want to move slightly right from the boxes- he wont be turning left - lenson tiggy probably leads, bish hasnt been trapping even when it had stripes last week and the shot gun dog is devoid early. I see Rio turning second at worst and expect it to rip Lenson Tiggy a new **** at the third.

Only three bets for me. Good luck.
By:
Billy Bigbelly
When: 12 Jun 15 11:54
For what it is worth here’s the heats how I see them.

Heat 1
1st: Diego Flight (pick all up near line)
2nd: Quietly (lead until the line)
3rd: Ibiza Rocks

Heat 2
1st: Droopys Nidge (lead all the way)
2nd: Teds Last
3rd: Coolavanny ****

Heat 3
1st: Swift Keith
2nd: Leamaneigh Turbo (lead until the line)
3rd: Evanta Fantasy

Heat 4
1st: Kentish Man (lead inside and pick up Clares 4th bend)
2nd: Lenson Sanchez (runs on late)
3rd: Clares Wonder (lead early)

Heat 5 (no shocks here)
1st: Farloe Blitz (lead all the way)
2nd: Newinn Yolo
3rd: Eden The Kid

Heat 6
1st: Roxholme Ted (lead all the way)
2nd: Glenpadden Lord
3rd: Roxholme Kid

Heat 7
1st: Rio Quattro (lead all the way)
2nd: Blonde Nipper (picks up Tiggy close home)
3rd: Lenson Tiggy

Heat 8
1st: Droopys Ward (pick all up near line)
2nd: Viking Jack (lead to the 4th bend)
3rd: Gaytime Hawk

Good Luck All
By:
the bairn
When: 12 Jun 15 12:00
the pin, a bloody good post for a novice, I don't agree with everything you've said, but most of it imo is pretty sound reasoning, as far as Blitz goes I don't think he has trapped too great yet but his exceptional early will take him clear of the field, Yolo trapped as fast as he could last time and Eden is pretty fair to the bend but will have to clear other dogs, I make Blitz a good bet, Addy I also think Rio and Clares are the pick of the round. cheers.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 12 Jun 15 12:11
  when someone puts the time and effort up and explains their reasoning, i don't really think it matters if you are right or wrong - it's about opinions and the forum is there to discuss them.


  ... well said addy.    Happy
By:
Hound-Dog-2
When: 12 Jun 15 12:21
^ totally agree, it's about opinions, wouldn't slag off a piece of sound reasoning like that, not like a guesser or a betting shop Johnny.
By:
frank60
When: 12 Jun 15 13:01
Nice WRITE UP Pin, for me  Blitz is a poor price at around  Evens, there plenty of early in this great heat and there,s no Guarantee that blitz will get the lead,  Eden the Kid is my idea of value in the race ; should get close to 4/1 on betfair on this one, goodluck with bets lads.
By:
casemoney
When: 12 Jun 15 14:12
Good Write up Pin and a decent case made for all selections ,Im with you and give JT a squeak in the last people seem to have written him off ,As for Berlin you are not the only one to favour him on here, I cannot see it and think its a desperate draw
Ive got a few pound Ew at 250 So I hope Im wrong ,if he can somehow survive and get back to his beloved rail qtrs would be interesting qualifying wise ...I also read Fizz and Fun as lively outsiders obviously crowding needed in races, Fizz particularly  Coz if Turbo comes away there will be something inside him when he chops this week ,Fizz could slip round Plain All safe and sound main thing Happy Looks a great nights racing looking forward to seeing Blitz looks a lovely dog and Quitely who flew last round last week Happy
By:
frank60
When: 12 Jun 15 15:06
Good to see the heats for r2 up on You tube,
By:
wondersobright
When: 12 Jun 15 17:56
My first ever post like this – and probably my last when you seasoned forum-ites slag it off
keep posting pin, some well reasoned views

nobody is ever slated for putting their opinion up unless its "saturday nags" or some equivalent drivel
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 12 Jun 15 20:17
Good stuff pin.  Here are my thoughts.
Ht 1.
I agree with you about Quietly - both he and Blitz are so well-balanced around here - but he almost came to a complete stop at the bend after the line the other night, and I'm not sure he warrants a bet at short odds here.  Salonika is very lightly raced, had a winter's rest and may be improving.  Diego wants to be in three and won't live with him on the run down.  Salonika each ways at 6's is a worthwhile bet.
Ht2
Nidge for me until he gets beat. 1 steps across, 2 and 3 want in - run up probs. very likely. Interested in watching how Ted's runs from 4.
Ht3.
So much early in this race it is impossible to read with any certainty, other than that Swift Keith is plotted in red.  A watcher for me.
Ht4.
Clares Wonder is one of the bets of the night for me.  I don't know how often reseedings wotk but Sanchez has a bit to prove from this box for me.
Ht5.
Farloe Blitz must be fancied as he runs as straight as a barrel to the bend whether in 1, 2 or 3, and he looks sure to lead up Yolo and Eden.  I very much like Jaytee but good as he is he won't be picking up Yolo or Eden if they go six lengths up on him up the back straight, as less able dogs have done - and that looks highly likely.  He has great potentisl and reminds me a bit of Farloe Tango when he was a pup.
Ht6.
Ted has become unpredictable.  He used to start fast all the time now he misses occasionally and runs on powerfully.
Glenpadden Lord looks an improver to me.  He comes right across from 1 and if he were to start a few spots quicker, he could well dominate Kid and the race - he is an each way bet for me.
Ht7.
I don't know who put Rio Quattro in at 7/4 ( long since gone ) for this heat but presumably he's been demoted now.  If ever a powerful middle-pacer was plotted it is him here, with a slow starter inside and four middles to get in each others ways out wider.  2nd best bet of these Derby heats for me.
Ht8.
Doopys Ward is beautifully boxed inside Hawk to get a trouble-free run.  In a match I would bet him to beat Jack 8 times out of 10 and this looks a match from the 2nd bend for me.  Third best bet for me and the third in my treble.
Good luck all.
By:
noflapleft
When: 12 Jun 15 20:59
Loyal honcho no jt in heat 5
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 12 Jun 15 21:01
Thanks m8.
By:
noflapleft
When: 12 Jun 15 21:04
Can't help myself been in billys every day this week
Still 9/4 jack must lead
Gl to ward if he picks him up
By:
woodmanchester
When: 13 Jun 15 07:03
Here's my two-penneth:

Ht 1 7/2 Riverside Pat. Mow fav down if handy enough and 10/1 Geelo Vegas, each-way. Wouldn't surprise me to see him get the better of not fully firing for my money Quietly

Ht 2 16/1 Badmoonrising, each-way. If away in best style, could benefit from bother

Ht 3 11/4 Swift Keith. Solid yardstick who can outstay Leamaneigh Turbo

Ht 4 7/2 Lenson Sanchez. Can overpower Clares Wonder, if gaining a run

Ht 5 11/8 Farloe Blitz. Tremendous pace up, hard to peg back

Ht 6 2/1 Roxholme Ted. Kipper wearing stripes, should do enough

Ht 7 11/2 Tynwald Bish. Capable of starting much better, therein lies his chance

Ht 8 9/4 Viking Jack. Not convinced he'll keep on breaking but worth the risk at the price

NB Power free bet if your dog finishes second to the sp fav

Good luck!
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 13 Jun 15 11:45
Diego Flight @ 6s - will be adding Ibiza Rocks as well who is too big (think the bottom could actually get an alright run here as Salonika cuts in on the corner, the top would have a massive chance if leading and he is not without a chance to do so)

Swift Keith @ 11/4 - stake saved on Leamaneigh Turbo @ 3/1 (don't really like the race but the prices dictate i must play)

Clares Wonder @ 15/8, 7/4, 6/4 and 11/8 (unbelievable draw, he is finally getting towards the right price but cannot understand how they priced this race wrong, ffs a toddler could have done better)

Roxholme Ted @ 2/1 (stunning draw, the top 2 are the wrong way around and Ted should lead all)

Tynwald Bish @ 11/2 - Lenson Tiggy @ 10/1 (Rio Quattro will take beating if clearing the top which he should be the top does move off the fence so he has too, 4 or 5 will go around and both are big)

Viking Jack @ 5/2 and 9/4 (market is finally correcting itself after being way wrong all week)
By:
everton-fc
When: 13 Jun 15 12:46
Tonight I've played

Rox Ted
Rio Quattro
and a small dabble on Bubbly Beauty @ 25/1 & 33/1.

Good luck all
By:
patrick starr
When: 13 Jun 15 13:44
Heat 8 has become quite interesting to me, have bet jack at 5/2 n 9/4(just the wrong price) but was talking to a mate yesterday and something he said got me thinking..."if we ignore viking jacks two ping breaks..." and hes right imo cos them breaks are the exception and not the norm then theres a very cheap lead on offer with little in the way of genuine early pace on show.

My mate actually went with bubbly beauty using that line of thinking and i can entirely see the reasoning behind that pick but i think jet stream sound is the one to pick,reasons being,the dog is improving all the time and hes been up against some real early pace in his latest heat and werent beaten for much to the bend by them,i think a similar level of early pace shown here as in that race takes him around in front or at worst close up on bubbly beauty where i think he has scope to go and get her also (though obviously the change of lead is playing into the strong runners hand in that scenario also)

Am getting rid of my viking jack bet and having it on jet stream and a little on bubbly also.

gl all.
By:
everton-fc
When: 13 Jun 15 13:52
PS

That's my theory behind backing Bubbly Beauty at fancy prices, could get a soft lead round.

Good luck mate
By:
everton-fc
When: 13 Jun 15 13:53
* soft lead
By:
Addy_D
When: 13 Jun 15 14:16
Rio Quattro Nap, Clares Wonder NB and only other bet Eden the Kid. Hard race but I can't get it out my head what he did to Swift Keith last week. I absolute hate leaders from the red box at wimbledon now they changed sides and am prepared to give Kid a chance albeit might need some luck making the bend
By:
casemoney
When: 13 Jun 15 14:19
Shocked After woodies Short one we getting some big ones now Laugh
By:
patrick starr
When: 13 Jun 15 14:23
Laugh  case

Yes i guessed that was your line of thinking when i seen you post gs,gl us! (and my mate obviously who opened my eyes to it really)Happy
By:
hunglikeadonkey
When: 13 Jun 15 15:23
Clares
J a p

small jet stream sound.
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 13 Jun 15 15:45
JUST GOING TO SIT BACK WATCH WHAT UNFOLDS TONIGHT, TO MANY IFS AND BUTS ON THE CARD,
TO MANY 3-4 DOGS IN EACH HEAT THAT CAN WIN A HEAT.
CHEER ON MY ANTE PICKS THAT BE THAT

GL WITH YOUR BETS
By:
wondersobright
When: 13 Jun 15 16:03
...and the ground

prefer to watch rather than guess
By:
noflapleft
When: 13 Jun 15 16:09
Heat 1 quietly lead on rails .rocks In front of pat .4-5 May come together. 6 behind and wide not run bend well yet
Rocks stop 3 getting a run at quietly in time
Heat 2 what leads nidge may pop out again but never sure clear field hard race
Heat 3 what leads wins here 9/10 times.can't have swift k in red .fantasy in 2 traps well every chance of turning in front only 3 would pick her up
Heat 4 Clare's clear leader. on alert loves the red  only danger
Heat 5 blitz in red not sure he run bend that tight .3-4 need luck if 1 moves out should blitz be midd seed! If he was mine yup
Heat 6 kid led ted in trial  why can't he lead again .6 will do well to get a clear run here own by good friend hope gets in
Heat 7 tiggy looks the leader 2-3 need luck 5 looks bookies dog 6 to slow away .if red gets luck could Nick it
Heat 8 jack pop out last twice same again see him clear. ward is class act pick up most if on there tail.but when was the last time you saw a dog run by jack
Just my observation on what I've seen you can guess and hope but you need luck on your side gl boys
By:
patrick starr
When: 13 Jun 15 17:04
Also Heat 7,given that rio has a fantastic make up,couldnt the make up be too good and he hits the front too early and slam the anchors on like he did in the 1st round?

A little bit of naughtiness from him brings red into the mix massively imo,have bet red and also 21 rfc with 123 combi trios also.
By:
bookie 25
When: 13 Jun 15 17:16
Heat 1 No bet and cant really see the outright winner coming from that heat. If pushed i think Rocks will lead and set the race up for Pat or Diego but at the prices no real value in coupling those two and if 2 clears 1 then it could be game over. If i could lay 2 at 11/8 then i think that would be the value but hes already bigger on here.

Heat 2 Have Teds and Nidge ante post so hope both qualify. As for the race Nidge is a worthy fav but short enough **** will be moving in so couldnt really oppose Nidge. Looking at the trainers in the race 2 x Buckley, Lister and Dartnall, then a place lay of the 1 could be good value if its win price holds up on here.

Heat 3 Cant see the outright winner in there tbh and there isnt much between a few of them and the race doesnt inspire me at all from a betting point of view. At a push for an opinion....nope i couldnt have a bet in there.

Heat 4 Everyone fancying Clares has driven its price down and there isnt huge early pace in the race tbh which means Sanchez has become too big at 7/2. He traps better from a middle box and imo was hugelly unlucky not to win the Scottish Derby. Had Save The Don not been in the final Sanchez would have won imo. Clares couldnt lead Yolo and for all that Yolo is a great dog he wouldnt be the fastest to the bend and i think Sanchez could lead round here.

Heat 5 Great heat but from a betting point of view the margins are too tight for me. It all comes down to who gets out the best imo. For all 1 has great early if he misses it at all he wont lead in that heat and is too short for me. No bet but will enjoy watching that heat.

Heat 6 Bet of the night for me Is Roxholme Ted. There is not huge pace in the race and he leads and wins imo. Was 2s and still 7/4 and i think thats still too big. Should be nearer 5/4 or evs imo. I said last year i didnt think he could win the derby as he lacks about a length from 2-3 with the top dogs but he is a year older now and the difference now is he doesnt need to lead to qualify and has strengthened up a bit more whereas last year he looked more of a raw pup. I think he could go very well this year although i dont have him in my AP bets.

Heat 7 Rio Quattro is plotted and with a level break wins. Think he will go off a shade of odds on tbh.

Heat 8 Not a betting race for me but have Ward AP and will be happy to qualify. Pushed i do fancy Ward to win but a few variables so at the prices not much value.
By:
darkie returns
When: 13 Jun 15 17:28
Heat 1- With all the early could be trouble ahead and Riverside Pat close enough to mow em down hopefully.
Heat2- Impressed with Droopys Nidge so far and cant see past him here at a fair looking 6-4.
Heat3- Thought Jolly Tricks won well 1st round and ran OK last week. At 7-1 value chance worth taken he leads. Backed Swift Keith AP but was a bit disappointed last week with him and wouldn't mind seeing him drawn 2 or 3 as it goes on.
Heat 4- Agree with the majority that Clares Wonder plotted up.
Heat 5- No bet for me but would oppose Farloe Blitz in 1. Take Yolo to edge it over Kid if pushed for selection.
Heat 6- Battle of the Roxholmes.At prices value is  Kid can lead Ted and land it.
Heat 7- Price gone now but Quattro looks good. Ran a stormer in defeat last week and can lead early and put this to bed.
Heat8- If Viking Jack breaks as last twice he wins because I don't see anything back running him, even Ward. Also fancy Jaytee Jet to qualify.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 13 Jun 15 17:36
I agree 100% ADDY - the way Eden outmuscled and swept Swift Keith aside, a hardened and seasoned operator of hig class, was significant.  He might have to accept 2nd spot tonight but getting through here is the thing.  His stamina will stand him in good stead for Tuesday's run then.
By:
track record
When: 13 Jun 15 18:02
claires wonder  11/8

viking jack   9/4

eden the kid  4/1

g/l all

no time to put reasoning up  Laugh
By:
track record
When: 13 Jun 15 18:03
like quatro but price put me off
By:
eyeball
When: 13 Jun 15 18:24
628 trap 2 wide run up and t3 likes the rail....break level and they are gone , t4 nailed on to lead but don't want anything close behind...betting red and having 1x5 , 1x about and 156 , 165 for sweets
By:
eyeball
When: 13 Jun 15 18:31
oh well profit but no delights
By:
patrick starr
When: 13 Jun 15 18:40
wd eye Happy
By:
stonecold-
When: 13 Jun 15 18:40
had a small bet on kentish man 25/1 ew in the 8.04
By:
eyeball
When: 13 Jun 15 18:43
644 t3 wide run up and not fit , t2 raving mental but struggle to lead red . t5 and t6 not ripe either so beet red and have 1x2 about and 124 , 142
By:
wondersobright
When: 13 Jun 15 18:45
u/l eye good read
By:
eyeball
When: 13 Jun 15 18:45
fek off
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