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engl
14 Jul 13 13:48
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Date Joined: 04 May 09
| Topic/replies: 2,362 | Blogger: engl's blog
Is there any way to calculate going corectly?

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Replies: 15
By:
Stow_judge
When: 14 Jul 13 19:15
Very tricky one that. You could approach this from a few directions.

You could set expected win times for track, distance and grade combinations, then average the found times vs expected times.

You could set expected win times from e.g. best of last 4 runs for each winning Greyhound, then calculate an average going using the actual times recorded.

You'd need to consider improvement and could possibly add age into an equation.
How would you cope with changing going through a meeting?

It's easy to do them manually for a single track & not too time consuming to do them manually for the opens for all tracks if you are good with databases. It is not difficult to improve upon what many of the tracks come up with as most of them can't be bothered to put too much effort in.

You could take a look at some horse racing speed ratings books, e.g. Beyer's books and try to apply the ideas to Greyhound racing.
By:
engl
When: 14 Jul 13 21:59
Cheers Stow.Thanks for answer.
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Jul 13 11:11
engl, hope you are well, everyones favourite romanian Laugh

on the subject of going, it is something I do for notts (crazy increase in standard times from second half of last year)

stow has given you a great answer, the 2 things I will add are:

- you need to remove any judgement calls from your workings imo, ie setting expected win times for individual dogs or factoring in improvement for pups is not for me at all tbh
- you need to think very carefully about changing conditions of a track through a meeting, you saw a classic example of that during the Derby #bowsergate et al
By:
engl
When: 15 Jul 13 11:54
hi wonder thanks for answer im fine,hope you are well toHappy
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Jul 13 12:22
no problem engl, I'm great thanks
By:
Stow_judge
When: 15 Jul 13 12:30
You start from determining standard times for each track and distance combination. Mine are determined such that the graded ratings top out at ca 100 (bit less for provincial tracks).

wrt Improvement
This comes from my experience and  what I have read about this in horse racing speed ratings books. The horses might improve a couple of points per month up to a certain age. If you don't allow for this, you'd find yourself setting ever increasing fast going allowances to scale them back to the figures they were attaining early season. There can be little doubt that Greyhounds improve, perhaps their optimum time is around 3yo.

For a single track, there would be much more value at doing this at certain tracks than others. e.g Romford seem to get it right most of the time. Sheffield are all over the shop.

I don't see how you are removing judgement from your workings. In fact, if you are doing a single track, I don't think you need any workings.
You can just run a query & change the going figures and compare the resulting figures with your previous ratings.

I think it's often clear enough when the going has changed at a meeting. It's much more subjective to determine exactly which races it has changed from.
By:
DONEMYLOT
When: 15 Jul 13 13:07
Would you say that working simply with the figures is more profitable than the eyes?
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Jul 13 13:16
sorry stow, that's not what I meant when I said disregard improvement, of course most greyhounds improve at a certain point in their career

I don't want to put too much up here for obvious reasons but my point is this improvement is largely reflected via the graded system, ie if a pup is currently racing in A6, you would rarely find that the dog has already achieved a time capable of winning more than 50% of A6s, the potential improvement is usually factored into the grading of the race imo

in open racing, stow I'm sure you're right tbh, when the handicapping system is not used you have more flexibility in your judgement for sure

DML - all I'm saying is sometimes the numbers give you another angle, defo need to use your eyes and brain first
By:
DONEMYLOT
When: 15 Jul 13 13:18
Not having a go. I know plenty of pro's that use figures only on various sports, including golf (my main thing). I've never seen the appeal myself and would still never bet on figures. However, am very interested as it may stop bets at too nshortish prices I reckon

Thats all
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Jul 13 13:21
I didn't take it as you having a go DML, not at all
By:
Stow_judge
When: 15 Jul 13 16:36
I'd say working with the figures give you a better starting point than those that don't have them. You can find the noncompetitive races quickly and you can assess performances from all tracks in a way that others cannot easily do. Even if others are familiar with the times at some other tracks, if they are relying on the official going allowances, many of the calculated times will be quite inaccurate. Of course the figures can be good for laying as well as win betting. Following on from a decent starting point, it's all about hard work on the videos, if you are lucky enough to be able to access a good proportion of them.

For the horses, ratings can be an invaluable guide. It's an awful lot of work refining the process to a position of value.
The NFL has proved relatively successful as well. Though the system I devised does not seem to be useful once the playoffs start.

It is a lot of work maintaining the systems and as you get older (& hopefully wealthier) you get lazier. I can only really be bothered to look at Romford Fridays when I'm going and make a minimal effort on the Sky cards. I do generally have a proper go at the Derby. On the horses, I'll only look at Saturdays, or when I'm going racing and at the better class racing at the better tracks midweek. I have devised some of the best tools in racing and am now mostly too lazy & wealthy to be bothered to use them.
By:
irishone
When: 15 Jul 13 20:48
It is a lot of work maintaining the systems and as you get older (& hopefully wealthier) you get lazier

Agree 100%
By:
Gomozkov
When: 15 Jul 13 20:51
except for a brief period at clapton in the late 1960s there was no video replays until 1978.all 1970s pros were time/speed figure based but the new superior video camera pro quickly made them extinct. american horse racing closely resembles our greyhound racing and  it is vogue now in america to ignore trip handicapping {watching dvds} and concentrate on times mainly sectionals because unlucky losers are very overbet.maybe now you  should look at times again because nobody else is.in my experience dvd watching is far from infallible eg most exponents overrate the back straight and fail to appreciate an improved move at a gallop in the second half of the said back straight is often merely a stayer staying better than some weak opposition.
By:
Stow_judge
When: 15 Jul 13 22:29
There are a number of factors which make the UK and Ireland racing different from American racing, both for Greyhounds and horses.

For the horses, the way the races are run is often completely different. Many of our races are run at a slower pace in the first part of the race and horses try to quicken at the end of the races. Our tracks are vastly different. Some left handed, some right handed. Some flat, some undulating. The majority of our races take place on turf. The going can vary significantly, due mostly to our unpredictable weather. We also have clerks of the courses over watering the tracks. Many of our races are also run at the wrong distances. They regularly move the running rails. Speed ratings are invaluable, but supplementing this with video study proves worthwhile. We are able to watch replays of all our horse racing free of charge in the UK. We have two satellite tv channels, neither of which are free to view. We have racing on a free to view channel every Saturday for a couple of hours and they also cover some of the bigger meetings midweek.

For Greyhounds in the UK, we have a dwindling number of tracks. We have a smaller number of galloping tracks than sharp tracks, so early pace is the most significant factor in the majority of our races. Years of breeding for speed has also contributed to this. This is why the video replays are our most valuable tool. We now have a free to view satellite tv channel which is on 5 nights per week, Wednesday to Sunday. None of the video replays from any track are currently available to watch for free.
By:
irishone
When: 15 Jul 13 22:39
no t v or satellite channel or live feed is free to view mate, that is one of the smallest hidden costs
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