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therhino
04 Mar 20 05:15
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 19,978 | Blogger: therhino's blog
If the forecast is accurate, fairly steady conditions Friday but a pronounced advantage for the early starters on Thursday.

Benefits Rory, Stenson, Big Tone, Morikawa, Rose, Ponce, Brooks, JDay of the big names.

Bad luck Hikeki, Tommy, Sungjae, Fowler, Leish, Reed, Bryson, Xander.

Bet accordingly imo.
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Report therhino March 4, 2020 11:04 AM GMT
Here comes the Rory money Excited
Report Total Bosman March 4, 2020 1:35 PM GMT
Normally I try not to make too much of wave differences unless they look really pronounced but it does look good for early / late this week.  Not even a cold start - pleasant 20C at 7am, hot and windy in the afternoon.  Problem is a few question marks among the big names in the morning, and Rory's price can't have too much more give given his win rate so maybe worth taking on a few afternoon starters and trying to find some value among morning outsiders.
Report therhino March 4, 2020 2:38 PM GMT
Agree TB. Got what I need out of Rory, in at 6.8 and out at 6.2 though I think he'll be probably good for another tick. Traded Ponce and taken positions on Big Tone and Morikawa. Not fussed about Tony's quiet history here, his course form in Phoenix was horrible prior to this year, his Bay Hill history quite favourable in comparison. Of the outsiders have opted for Na, McNealy who seems lively and Conners. Bay Hill always been a ball strikers course so think Conners could suit as should Morikawa.

Stenson, Day and Brooks all question marks yes but really, nought wrong with the price on offer for those three. Still trigger shy though.
Report Knight Rider March 4, 2020 4:16 PM GMT
Brooks is a good test case of how high a class player's price should go off the back of a few MCs.  It's hard to believe Rory would be anywhere near 40s in the same circumstances.
Report Total Bosman March 4, 2020 6:27 PM GMT
Yeah, not even a plum tee time is doing anything for Brooks' price.  Funny thing is, call this a major he's still probably half the price, poor form and all.  One for someone braver than me though.  Stenson is my dilemma, the course form, the tee time add up to what should be an obvious back, but he's a hard guy to back big, especially when he's played so little.

I've actually backed ZJ, god help me, in the hope he's not still on tilt from the shambles on the 11th last Friday.
Report therhino March 4, 2020 9:04 PM GMT
Have only ever played the 1st round leader market on a small handful of occasions but given the forecast and the smaller than normal field, there seems some excellent opportunities to have a dabble.
Report Hank Hill March 4, 2020 9:52 PM GMT
A small punt on Rose and ponce for me.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 11:44 AM GMT
Strange that despite being in the same group Tommy has gone 18.5 - 25 on the weather forecast and Hideki held strong at 25.  If anything you'd think Tommy would cope better with conditions.

My weather lays have fared better than expected, getting out of a couple already.  Been tentative on early starters but decent greens on Homa, Kang, Griffin, ZJ and Brown.

Big money for Henrik at 36 just now despite being freely available 46-48 all week long.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 11:47 AM GMT
Must be striping them on the range, though not sure how punters outside of the US would know that.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 11:57 AM GMT
Hope you've got a nice healthy book TB, weather trading went down a treat. Great start to the week.

Team is Rory, Ponce, Stenson, Finau, Morikawa, Na, Homa, McNealy and Conners. Book value is about ten times my field red so let's hope the weather does it's job. Conners my biggest by far.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:09 PM GMT
Rough up, fast greens and breezy already, not going to be a pushover in the morning so I've been wary of backing too many. Could be pretty extreme in the afternoon, one ball moving on the green and they'll be begging to go off.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:13 PM GMT
Rough does look gnarly.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:14 PM GMT
Doesn't sound like they've made many concessions for the expected weather.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:17 PM GMT
Molinari WD.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:18 PM GMT
Have a guess at the winning score now instead of Sunday. Could be wildly wrong, but I'll have a stab at -10.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:20 PM GMT
Going to be breezy all week so given the conditions this could be another very tough week, I'll go nuts and say -7
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:22 PM GMT
Here's hoping. Can be a brute or a birdie fest this track but surely the former this week.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:28 PM GMT
If the setup and wind is as billed this is about as tough as it can be, so if they still get to the mid teens they should find another course.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:34 PM GMT
Make 16 a par 4 and play it as a par 71. Job done imo. It's not the best but has some good history, been plenty of drama on that 18th green over the years.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
Funny how golf betting goes, I spent most of the week thinking about backing Henrik and am now fist pumping him missing 5 footers on his first hole of the week.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:42 PM GMT
Random question, are folks in the UK corona virus panic buying? In Oz we can't buy pasta, rice, tinned food and bizarrely people are getting held up at knife point for toilet paper. Shelves are empty everywhere, it's mental.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:44 PM GMT
You can't get hand sanitizer for love or money but other than that the shelves still seem pretty full despite the coming apocalypse. The way the news coverage is going though I expect a bit more panic in the next week.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:47 PM GMT
Hand sanitizer makes some sense at least, more than committing indictable offences for toilet paper anyway. Fun times.

Meanwhile, there is a lid on the cup on the 10th.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:51 PM GMT
Yeah, the last thing I'd be worried about is toilet roll, you can't sh*t if you can't eat.  I'll wipe with a leaf if I have to.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 12:54 PM GMT
See if Collin can get one to drop there.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 12:55 PM GMT
-7 already looking a laughable shout.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:01 PM GMT
Collin no good either.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:03 PM GMT
OK, Justin surely
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:05 PM GMT
My guys a combined +5 thus far Laugh
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:06 PM GMT
And left out ole mate at big odds who is tearing it up Plain
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:09 PM GMT
This is silly.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:20 PM GMT
J Day obliges
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:27 PM GMT
Feel your pain about Burns, Rhino.  Nothing worse than leaving out a regular and watching them start hot.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:35 PM GMT
Collin's figured out the best solution to his putting woes is not to putt at all.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:40 PM GMT
Scott shouldn't have been thinking about going over the water on that second shot, layup take your medicine.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:43 PM GMT
Paying the price too. Funnily enough Rory actually showed some good decision making not trying the Bill Haas shot and getting out with a bogey. Bogey certainly no disaster on 11. Very bad call from the ponce.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:46 PM GMT
Yeah, why try to be a hero on Thursday or Friday? ZJ completely derailed a good tournament on 11 last week trying something he didn't need to.  Looks like we're going to have a nice mix of scoring and trainwrecks this morning.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 1:52 PM GMT
Gooch eagle on 16, made bunker shot on 17, approach to 7in on the 18th.  Decent stretch.
Report therhino March 5, 2020 1:53 PM GMT
sickening leaderboard
Report therhino March 5, 2020 2:01 PM GMT
some very ordinary stuff from these featured groups.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 2:10 PM GMT
Coley both winners last week, tipped Gooch this week...
Report therhino March 5, 2020 2:11 PM GMT
If you just look at the top of the leaderboard without scrolling down you'd be forgiven for thinking you are watching the Sanderson Farms or the Barbasol.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 2:17 PM GMT
When I said -7 was the winning score I obviously meant for first round leader.
Report Hank Hill March 5, 2020 2:34 PM GMT
ffs what's with this scoring? I have hoarded a lot of sanitizer over the years - time to sell it all and retire? Laugh
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 2:40 PM GMT
Bout time you had a profitable trade Hank...
Report therhino March 5, 2020 2:46 PM GMT
TB bringing the fire Shocked

I wouldn't take that if I was you Hank Excited
Report Hank Hill March 5, 2020 2:51 PM GMT
Now look here TB Angry  no, no, you're right Laugh
Report Hank Hill March 5, 2020 2:53 PM GMT
People scoring for fun and ponce +4 Sad
Report therhino March 5, 2020 3:22 PM GMT
Rory looks to have woken up, but bed time for me.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 4:18 PM GMT
Sam Burns FRL bettors in tears.
Report jedi sophie March 5, 2020 4:47 PM GMT
Time for the Rory lay again...
Talk about short,these thursday friday prices are ludicrous.

Tiger pomp....Rory not quite converting at that rate imo....not even bloody close.
Report jedi sophie March 5, 2020 4:50 PM GMT
Exactly why you can never be at all confident with Adam,ridiculously bad to good in days....or vice versa.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 7:18 PM GMT
No sign of absolute chaos just yet, PM scoring fine so far.  Rory's price looks slim, seen before (Mexico in particular) a good round from him is no guarantee of future performance.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 9:03 PM GMT
Thought Rory was a cert for FRL after his round but forgot about Matt Every, the Bay Hill Buzzsaw.
Report Hank Hill March 5, 2020 9:14 PM GMT
I hope he tokes a nice fattie if he takes FRL Grin
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 9:18 PM GMT
Would happily see him spark one up while sticking on the Arnie cardie on the 18th green come Sunday.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 9:43 PM GMT
Shelton just shot a level par round with 7 birdies.
Report johnnythebull March 5, 2020 10:33 PM GMT
just had to lay me some of the choker leader @ 2.8 but i'm wary as it's a who's who of handjobs behind him

could win hard held and 3 rds to go

prob shoot the lights out again 2moro and be 1.5xGrin..on verra
Report therhino March 5, 2020 10:36 PM GMT
I'd be wary of laying Rory too heavily, of all the courses they play in the USA I think this one suits him best. Many of the big guns have played their way out of it already it seems, he's in a great position.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 10:46 PM GMT
Obviously Rory now strong, strong favourite but I think today's late starters have by and large done a good bit better than expected so Rory has plenty of competition- I thought he'd have drifted more from where he was post-round as a lot of good players have posted scores in the afternoon.

They were generous with the green speeds today I think because of the wind forecast, it'll still be breezy tomorrow but they might not be so kind.  So it'll be quite tough for Rory tomorrow afternoon and we all saw what happened in Mexico.
Report Total Bosman March 5, 2020 10:47 PM GMT
Plus for all we know he could tee off 8 shots behind the Bay Hill Buzzsaw.
Report johnnythebull March 5, 2020 11:18 PM GMT
bottled it and cashed out for a massive 70p profit..i still think he can find a way to lose but can't be bothered to monitor it continuously..may have another butchers final round
Report Total Bosman March 6, 2020 1:16 PM GMT
Considering there's not much breeze this morning we're seeing absolutely nothing from the early starters.
Report jedi sophie March 6, 2020 2:28 PM GMT
Matt unravelling quick. As he can do.
Report jedi sophie March 6, 2020 2:28 PM GMT
Rory back in lead fast asleep...shortening rapidly.
Report Hank Hill March 6, 2020 2:37 PM GMT
I fear Every took my advice
Report Total Bosman March 6, 2020 2:42 PM GMT
85-65-85 not out of the question for Matt.
Report Total Bosman March 6, 2020 4:07 PM GMT
Meltdown to finish from Scottie.
Report Total Bosman March 6, 2020 4:22 PM GMT
Some spectacular tilting on display from decent positions by Scottie, Gmac, Kokrak and An.
Report RothmanMike March 6, 2020 4:33 PM GMT
Just called McIlroy ...English Sad
Report Total Bosman March 6, 2020 5:45 PM GMT
Looking at how tough this has been today as the greens speed up with the wind staying the same all weekend -7 might not be as crazy as it initially sounded.
Report jedi sophie March 6, 2020 5:48 PM GMT
Bounces on 9 looked like they were bouncing on a cart path....wild.
Report jedi sophie March 6, 2020 5:48 PM GMT
What a cretin Every is...
Report jedi sophie March 6, 2020 5:50 PM GMT
Think anyone under par in house be absolutely chuffed to bits....

Double for Im be good....

Should suit him.
Report jedi sophie March 9, 2020 9:59 AM GMT
Yet again,another implosion when very very short from our WORLD NUMBER 1....
Shocking display..

Im must be really kicking himself that water ball on 13 with a wedge,very very costly indeed.
Report jedi sophie March 9, 2020 9:59 AM GMT
Disappointing no forum as cracking event.
Report Total Bosman March 9, 2020 12:58 PM GMT
Yeah, unfortunate weekend for the forum to die, no shortage of things to discuss. When i called a -7 winning score on Thursday I didn't think I was being optimistic.

Even with the forum so much quieter than it used to be you do miss it when it's gone. I just hope Catch Me got through the weekend OK.
Report Hank Hill March 9, 2020 1:11 PM GMT
Yep shame it went down as that was very eventful. I think Rory seemed to blow it when that 3rd shot in to the par 5 went in to the rocks - all seemed downhill from there. Hatton certainly deserved it - he had his moments where he could have lost his rag but he kept it in - mostly! Leishman put in a great effort to try and reel Hatton in, but just not quite enough in the end. Im was superb again - made some clutch par saves and as long as he doesn't burn himself out we'll see him contending loads-  probably needs to dial down the schedule though. Good job Every didn't make the w/e - he might have posted 100+...
Report Total Bosman March 9, 2020 1:51 PM GMT
Onwards to Sawgrass, but getting concerned about future events being called off with so many sporting events already gone.  I imagine with so much sponsor money on the line the next step will be to play behind closed doors if they have to rather than cancel (could we have a patron-free Masters?) and I guess golf of the major sports is the one which would suffer least from having no fans (in the US it might even be better). 

But if people get jittery we could see some cancellations soon - for example Austin has already cancelled the SXSW festival so you'd think the WGC there would be in some jeopardy.
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