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therhino
04 Mar 20 05:15
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 20,229 | Blogger: therhino's blog
If the forecast is accurate, fairly steady conditions Friday but a pronounced advantage for the early starters on Thursday.

Benefits Rory, Stenson, Big Tone, Morikawa, Rose, Ponce, Brooks, JDay of the big names.

Bad luck Hikeki, Tommy, Sungjae, Fowler, Leish, Reed, Bryson, Xander.

Bet accordingly imo.

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Replies: 79
By:
therhino
When: 04 Mar 20 12:04
Here comes the Rory money Excited
By:
Total Bosman
When: 04 Mar 20 14:35
Normally I try not to make too much of wave differences unless they look really pronounced but it does look good for early / late this week.  Not even a cold start - pleasant 20C at 7am, hot and windy in the afternoon.  Problem is a few question marks among the big names in the morning, and Rory's price can't have too much more give given his win rate so maybe worth taking on a few afternoon starters and trying to find some value among morning outsiders.
By:
therhino
When: 04 Mar 20 15:38
Agree TB. Got what I need out of Rory, in at 6.8 and out at 6.2 though I think he'll be probably good for another tick. Traded Ponce and taken positions on Big Tone and Morikawa. Not fussed about Tony's quiet history here, his course form in Phoenix was horrible prior to this year, his Bay Hill history quite favourable in comparison. Of the outsiders have opted for Na, McNealy who seems lively and Conners. Bay Hill always been a ball strikers course so think Conners could suit as should Morikawa.

Stenson, Day and Brooks all question marks yes but really, nought wrong with the price on offer for those three. Still trigger shy though.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 04 Mar 20 17:16
Brooks is a good test case of how high a class player's price should go off the back of a few MCs.  It's hard to believe Rory would be anywhere near 40s in the same circumstances.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 04 Mar 20 19:27
Yeah, not even a plum tee time is doing anything for Brooks' price.  Funny thing is, call this a major he's still probably half the price, poor form and all.  One for someone braver than me though.  Stenson is my dilemma, the course form, the tee time add up to what should be an obvious back, but he's a hard guy to back big, especially when he's played so little.

I've actually backed ZJ, god help me, in the hope he's not still on tilt from the shambles on the 11th last Friday.
By:
therhino
When: 04 Mar 20 22:04
Have only ever played the 1st round leader market on a small handful of occasions but given the forecast and the smaller than normal field, there seems some excellent opportunities to have a dabble.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 04 Mar 20 22:52
A small punt on Rose and ponce for me.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 12:44
Strange that despite being in the same group Tommy has gone 18.5 - 25 on the weather forecast and Hideki held strong at 25.  If anything you'd think Tommy would cope better with conditions.

My weather lays have fared better than expected, getting out of a couple already.  Been tentative on early starters but decent greens on Homa, Kang, Griffin, ZJ and Brown.

Big money for Henrik at 36 just now despite being freely available 46-48 all week long.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 12:47
Must be striping them on the range, though not sure how punters outside of the US would know that.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 12:57
Hope you've got a nice healthy book TB, weather trading went down a treat. Great start to the week.

Team is Rory, Ponce, Stenson, Finau, Morikawa, Na, Homa, McNealy and Conners. Book value is about ten times my field red so let's hope the weather does it's job. Conners my biggest by far.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:09
Rough up, fast greens and breezy already, not going to be a pushover in the morning so I've been wary of backing too many. Could be pretty extreme in the afternoon, one ball moving on the green and they'll be begging to go off.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:13
Rough does look gnarly.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:14
Doesn't sound like they've made many concessions for the expected weather.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:17
Molinari WD.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:18
Have a guess at the winning score now instead of Sunday. Could be wildly wrong, but I'll have a stab at -10.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:20
Going to be breezy all week so given the conditions this could be another very tough week, I'll go nuts and say -7
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:22
Here's hoping. Can be a brute or a birdie fest this track but surely the former this week.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:28
If the setup and wind is as billed this is about as tough as it can be, so if they still get to the mid teens they should find another course.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:34
Make 16 a par 4 and play it as a par 71. Job done imo. It's not the best but has some good history, been plenty of drama on that 18th green over the years.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:37
Funny how golf betting goes, I spent most of the week thinking about backing Henrik and am now fist pumping him missing 5 footers on his first hole of the week.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:42
Random question, are folks in the UK corona virus panic buying? In Oz we can't buy pasta, rice, tinned food and bizarrely people are getting held up at knife point for toilet paper. Shelves are empty everywhere, it's mental.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:44
You can't get hand sanitizer for love or money but other than that the shelves still seem pretty full despite the coming apocalypse. The way the news coverage is going though I expect a bit more panic in the next week.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:47
Hand sanitizer makes some sense at least, more than committing indictable offences for toilet paper anyway. Fun times.

Meanwhile, there is a lid on the cup on the 10th.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:51
Yeah, the last thing I'd be worried about is toilet roll, you can't sh*t if you can't eat.  I'll wipe with a leaf if I have to.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 13:54
See if Collin can get one to drop there.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 13:55
-7 already looking a laughable shout.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:01
Collin no good either.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:03
OK, Justin surely
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:05
My guys a combined +5 thus far Laugh
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:06
And left out ole mate at big odds who is tearing it up Plain
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:09
This is silly.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:20
J Day obliges
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:27
Feel your pain about Burns, Rhino.  Nothing worse than leaving out a regular and watching them start hot.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:35
Collin's figured out the best solution to his putting woes is not to putt at all.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:40
Scott shouldn't have been thinking about going over the water on that second shot, layup take your medicine.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:43
Paying the price too. Funnily enough Rory actually showed some good decision making not trying the Bill Haas shot and getting out with a bogey. Bogey certainly no disaster on 11. Very bad call from the ponce.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:46
Yeah, why try to be a hero on Thursday or Friday? ZJ completely derailed a good tournament on 11 last week trying something he didn't need to.  Looks like we're going to have a nice mix of scoring and trainwrecks this morning.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 05 Mar 20 14:52
Gooch eagle on 16, made bunker shot on 17, approach to 7in on the 18th.  Decent stretch.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Mar 20 14:53
sickening leaderboard
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