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lewisham ranger
07 May 19 13:37
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Date Joined: 08 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 5,280 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
any early thoughts? could play very tough like a US open. is this a bombers paradise? can tiger win again or will he have a let-down? can rory be trusted these days?

feel like DJ good chance on this track with his length and the greens will suit him. also quite like Fleetwood, and casey. Rahmbo going well, fowler played very well at the Barclays on this course a few years back, so many chances.

I know he has fallen off a cliff but it would be a typically Jordan thing to do to get into contention when no one is talking about him. he only needs this for the grand slam, after all.

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By:
sofiakenny
When: 08 May 19 11:47
Full bank on the mighty Koepka.....course is made for him..has won 3 majors since Rory last won one..why he doesn't get the credit
he deserves is beyond belief...made a few untypical errors at Masters and still went close...14/1 is more than fair.
By:
therhino
When: 08 May 19 13:07
I agree sofia - big, brute of a course surely suited to Major Brooks.

The only cause for pause is the past tourneys winners lists, Glover, Watney and Reed don't scream bombers course though you automatically assume it's a bombers heaven. Plenty of plodders in the top 10s of those tourneys as well. I'm not including Tiger in 2002 in this, he was on another planet and what they did to the course to curb his scoring effectively took out most of the field.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 08 May 19 16:24
rhino...when Glover and Watney won this you were still in shorts!Happy
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 08 May 19 16:34
I respect koepka but I don't fear him. You know Fleetwood went very well in the last two us opens, admittedly he didn't win them like Brooks but he's twice the price. First in scrambling on pga tour. Fowler very interesting as well. Dave tindall put him up as a trends pick and I think you have to look at the motivations of the players. Who will be more motivated than fowler? I just wonder if the rescheduling of the event will lessen the motivation of some of the players, who might just think well the masters has just finished and hard to pick myself up again, whereas before the pga was the last chance in the calendar to pick up a major.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 08 May 19 18:47
I would expect the winning score to be similar to the play off events 9 or 10 under.

As for the winner its wide open
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 09 May 19 16:06
backed rory earlier. think you need at least one bomber on your side, three of the holes are over 500 yards. not sure I completely trust him but he has won two pgas already so good record in this tournament.

also weather forecasts rain for next week which is ideal for him of course. the track could play seriously long for some and take out over half the field.

Koepka going very well in the Byron, ball striking exemplary. doesn't seem to make mistakes anymore.. although I wonder if his price Is finally going to start catching up with his ability.

the reason I think it doesn't, is because he is someone who is always going to fly under the radar, well that's my view anyway.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 09 May 19 16:08
should have said "three of the par fours are over 500 yards"
By:
therhino
When: 12 May 19 07:59
Rory's record in New York does not inspire confidence. Despite having an excellent history in the playoffs, has never cracked the top 10 in 7 attempts at The Barclays, best result in the city was actually at Bethpage as a youngster at the 09 Open where he backdoored a T10 with a low one on Sunday.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 12 May 19 09:25
yeah, although rory's rough proximity has been very good this season. top 15 I think which should be useful around here.

starting to fear big cat. are people underestimating tigers chances? Confused should he be even shorter than he is? I just feel that he thrives on confidence, and that he's the best player. (not everyone would agree with that last bit.) could well improve on his masters display, which would make it tough for everyone else. I also have a theory that tiger hasn't played since not only partly to protect his body, but that he wants to go in to a major on a high. if he had played since then, the chances are he would have got beat... now his most recent golfing memory is winning the masters.

also very positive signs from Jordan this week. problem is on a long and soft golf course, any driving woes might be exposed.
By:
therhino
When: 13 May 19 10:45
Garcia the early darling of the market, not sure why given the recent form in majors.
By:
dazmacccccc
When: 13 May 19 16:02
ya do know,course form,current form,poa annua greens,form on courses that indicate performing well here.
By:
therhino
When: 13 May 19 22:13
JT WD
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 16:01
the course is playing very long. bjerrgard apparently needed fairway woods to reach the greens on five of the par fours in a practice round.

you could say that favours the longer hitters, but it sounds as if they'll struggle to reach the greens on some of the holes as well..
By:
DickTurpin
When: 14 May 19 16:38
2019 PGA CHAMPS PICKS :-

B Koepka @12.5
X Schauffele @32
P Casey @65
J Kokrak @140
K Mitchell @240

GL if playing.............
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 18:00
bets so far, casey, Fleetwood, rory,spieth, with lesser amounts on fowler and matsu
By:
sickoflayinwinners
When: 14 May 19 18:02
not very original but ew  10 places dj and rory , either make the ten u lose less than 25%  of total stake, seems ok to me
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 19:33
I see Koepka is the new favourite with a lot of bookmakers now.

I do wonder if this whole thing with Koepka winning three majors recently is a bit of an outlier. he's a player who struggled to win a tour event before that, and now people are hailing him as the new goat, which seems a bit ridiculous. will be interesting to see what his tally is in another three years- will he have doubled his total, or more, or will he be stuck around the same number?

clearly you can't fluke three majors, and Koepka himself is now saying that it's easier to win majors than it is to win non-events. an interesting theory, but I wonder if he's developed that to hide his poor record in non-majors compared to the bigger events.

I'm in the brandel Chamblee camp here, I don't think he's in the same league as woods Johnson and mcilroy, and can't see brooks getting anywhere near ten majors by the end of his career. I just take the view that there's a lot of good players around now, he's one of them, but to get a huge total of majors you have to be clearly better than anyone else around, and I don't think he is. any one of the rahm/jt/Fleetwood/byrson/schuaffle/rickie camp could get hot and get on a run of multiple majors, and all of a sudden they'll be hailed as the new goat, and brooks will be forgotten about.

cue egg on face time on sunday night.
By:
frames
When: 14 May 19 19:55
What does goat stand for ?
By:
JML
When: 14 May 19 20:11
frames-it's what Muhammad Ali used to call himself.
By:
frames
When: 14 May 19 21:28
Cheers I thought it was but reading LR's post thought it must mean something else.
Clearly talking nonsense.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 14 May 19 21:31
the JT wrist injury - is that a lingering one from that stupid shot at the Honda?
By:
jedi sophie
When: 14 May 19 22:10
Think for sure will be Hank...
By:
jedi sophie
When: 14 May 19 22:12
Keep writing off Brooks chaps.
I'll keep backing.

Big big chance this week. Think its bombers paradise,got to be. I'm loading up on the big hitters top of the market,bomb it down there,at least a chance from rough with shorter clubs,no chance from further back
By:
sofiakenny
When: 14 May 19 22:13
Koepka is 29 and has 3 majors..he is the real deal..interesting pairing with Moli and Tigger.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 14 May 19 22:13
Not sure the damp and cold too suitable for Eldrick.
Likely be in the plan somewhere but not sure ideal for him this week at all,not tees up in a month either.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 22:19
I wouldn't write off brooks... I think he'll win more majors, just I'm not totally sure if he's a guy who's to win six or more majors. Or if this recent run is something of an outlier. I guess we'll just have to see.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 22:25
has dj lost some distance... seems a fair bit back on rory on driving distance.

really like rory on this long and wet layout... agree that longer hitters are favoured... although on a 500 yard par four if you miss the fairway you're still going to have at least 200 yards (assuming not much carry from the drive) and still no chance of reaching the green.

all the players are saying that it's pivotal to be in the fairway this week. everyone's going to have their struggles I think.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 14 May 19 22:31
I think the issue of the course being wet and long is over played. Distance isn't an issue for the pros. In many ways the course will play easier if it is soft as it will widen the fairways and make the greens more receptive.

Even the shorter hitters will be able to hold the greens with longer irons. Far tougher when it is firm and fast even more so if you chuck in a little wind.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 14 May 19 22:53
This is a proper beast of a course though,in bad weather be a real grind...
Rule out many on that alone.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 14 May 19 23:02
forecast looks set fair ..some rain Friday but  apart from that ...luverlyCool
By:
jedi sophie
When: 14 May 19 23:08
Looking forward to it immensely.
After watching that tripe at the weekend.
Boring garbage golf course.zero jeopardy at all.

Roll on Thursday.
By:
charwell.
When: 15 May 19 02:45
With the course playing long, conditions forecast damp the things to look for are length off the tee, ball striking and I think an underrated stat is average finishing positions in majors. Added to the fact that fairly flat poa annua greens tend to help the less able putters...... So, as such my selections are (all Top 10 E/W):

Koepka 12/1 - What hasn't been said already? Outstanding major success, good recent form, monster off the tee. Rock solid selection.

Schauffle 28/1 -  His first eight majors show two second places, a tied fifth, a tied sixth and a further top 20. 33rd in driving distance and accurate iron player. And his top 20 placings in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-To-Green while he's 20th in Approaches from > 200 yards and 15th from 250-275 yards.

Fleetwood 30/1 - He's fourth for strokes gained tee to green on this year's PGA Tour, up from 13th last year. In Europe those numbers read ninth and third. Whereas putting is rarely his strength, it may prove so here. According to Future of Fantasy's ratings, he's the fifth best performer on poa annua greens since 2014.

Scott 40/1 - imperious long ball striker and came 3rd in 2018 on a soggy course (behind Koepka).

Cantlay 40/1 - In the top 10 of average major finishes in recent years. 4th in bogey avoidance & 10th in strokes gained tee to green; all in all this makes him an inviting punting proposition.

Grace 150/1 - Plays tough courses well. Similar to Scott he is a great ball striker and average putter.

Smith 1501/ & Harding 200/1 - Plenty overall to like about these two at the prices.

Gl all.
By:
saxon farm
When: 15 May 19 09:15
MIghty Whites 2008 spot on as usual.
By:
lockup
When: 15 May 19 10:44
Koepka 12
Fowler 21
Scott 56
Stenson 71
Leishman 81
Poulter 81

  Koepka strong fav so goodin majors
  Scott  keeps threatening but fades hopefully not this time.
  Fowler surely his 1st will happen soon
  Stenson played well there before
  Leishman great ball striker needs to get it done
  Poulter obligatory couple of quid would love him to just get a major after great Ryder cup heroics

  gl all
By:
kincsem
When: 15 May 19 12:08
I didn't realise the USPGA was moved to may until five minutes ago.

A few outsiders for an interest
Ryan Fox 790
Erik Van Rooyen 860
Adrian Otaegui 1000
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 15 May 19 13:49
I've laid off fowler. Don't think he'll win. I think he doesn't have it this week.

The one I can't figure out is woods. Not sure if he's too short a price or if he'll win by ten shots.

I do think that there's more to come from him. I don't know if he'll dominant in this era but I think there will be one major left in his career where he'll win by a lot of shots. That we'll see the kind of dominance that we saw before from him. It could well be this week.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 15 May 19 20:26
Grace at 400+ certainly looks a good price.  Not great form but proven performer in the majors and not a guy you'd consider an absolute shock if he's holding the trophy come Sunday.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 15 May 19 21:47
Tiger a no-show at the course today, played 9 holes all week.  On top of that hobbling video we saw a couple of weeks ago got to be a few question marks.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 15 May 19 22:26
if he good enough off the tee though? ranks fairly poorly in driving accuracy this season, which for someone who's not that long off the tee, doesn't bode well around here.

you see what's happened to me, a few years following the golf and I've turned into a stat freak Scared
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