Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
lewisham ranger
02 Apr 19 09:42
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 9,557 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
thought I'd start a thread.

despite his dreadful form imo Spieth is the man to beat around augusta these days. 4 out of the last 5 years he's finished in the top five in the tournament. in each of those five years he looked like winning at one point in the event and arguably is unlucky not to win more than one green jacket.

would need signs of life this week though, at the moment he's not so much flatlining as being taken off life support. the wide fairways of augusta should help with his errant ballstriking though, and there's been some signs this year of an upturn with his short game. Got quite a bit on spiffy already so here's hoping.


my other main bet is Jason day. think he is coming in somewhat under the radar but signs of much better form than last season.

a lot of people think it's rorys year after his players win and his stellar form in general, and although his price somewhat reflects that, he has the talent to blow them all away.

I think tiger is playing well enough to get into contention at least. his ballstriking has been exemplary in the first part of the season and we know his game is made for augusta anyhow. I just wonder if coming down the stretch with the huge crowd support whether the nerves will kick in for Tiger and we'll see missed drives and putts. Just so hard to win that next major again after so many years in the wilderness, although I think there's a good chance he'll break through again this year.

Another one who is very tempting is Justin Rose. we know his record around the course is spot-on. and he's not been playing better coming into a masters, just wonder if his regular caddy coming back at this event will serve as a distraction.


other players who figure highly on the radar are Rahm and Rickie, just think that the players who already have a green jacket in their locker have an advantage. 20-1 on Jordan especially with the each-way terms likely to be available on the week remains very tempting.
Pause Switch to Standard View 2019 masters.
Show More
Loading...
Report kincsem April 2, 2019 4:37 PM BST
Patrick Cantlay, Hao Tong Li, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Wise.
Spieth is playing like me.  Tiger Woods could do it.

In the last 28 years only Angel Cabrera and Nick Faldo did not start their Majors wins at Augusta.
19 players who had their first major win at Augusta.
Adam Scott; Ben Crenshaw; Bernhard Langer; Bubba Watson; Charl Schwartzel; Danny Willett; Fred Couples; Ian Woosnam; Jordan Spieth; José María Olazábal; Mark O'Meara; Mike Weir; Patrick Reed; Phil Mickelson; Sergio García; Tiger Woods; Trevor Immelman; Vijay Singh; Zach Johnson.
Report lewisham ranger April 3, 2019 9:05 AM BST
looking at the prices Koepka stands out as the value... won 3 out of the last 6 majors and he's 20-1?

I do think rory has got a good chance but when you're backing him you do have to take into account he hasn't won a major since 2014 and he's less than a third of the price Koepka is. even rahm is shorter than brooks, and he hasn't even won a major! nuts.


all that suggests to me is that brooks is a guy that will continue to be underestimated by the betting public. unless he wins here, then he finally might start at the same price as rory, dj etc for the following majors.
Report therhino April 3, 2019 10:49 AM BST
Brooks has barely shown up this year and this is the only major he hasn't shown form for. Results still very respectable having said that. I don't have an issue with Rahm being short - he's a nailed on cert to end up in Butler Cabin one day. I don't think the course suits many right handers more than he and there are not many of the top dogs ripping it up right now that have form at Augusta.

I actually think at 8.6, Rory is too big...
Report sofiakenny April 3, 2019 11:21 AM BST
Doubt Rorys' putter will allow him to win.
Report kincsem April 3, 2019 11:34 AM BST
Because I am bored

US Masters repeat second place finishers

Ben Hogan……………4
Jack Nicklaus….……4
Tom Weiskopf………4
Greg Norman…….…3
Johnny Miller………3
Raymond Floyd……3
Tom Kite……………….3
Tom Watson…………3
Arnold Palmer…..…2
Ben Crenshaw………2
Byron Nelson………2
Cary Middlecoff.…2
Craig Wood…………2
David Duval……….2
Davis Love III…..…2
Ernie Els…………….2
Gary Player……….2
Harry Cooper…….2
Jordan Spieth……2
Justin Rose…………2
Lee Westwood……2
Lloyd Mangrum…2
Ralph Guldahl……2
Retief Goosen….…2
Sam Snead…………2
Seve Ballesteros..2
Tiger Woods………2
Report kincsem April 3, 2019 11:39 AM BST
A fix to the above list
Ken Venturi was second in 1956 and 1960, both by one stroke, in 1956 as a amateur.

Amateur second place finishers
1947 Frank Stranahan (a)
1956 Ken Venturi (a)
1961 Charles Coe (a)
Report lewisham ranger April 3, 2019 1:10 PM BST
I actually think at 8.6, Rory is too big...

agreed think he should be 7-2 and rest of the market built around that

I recall one year Tiger started at 5/6 for the masters, I know because I put a grand on him to win and he missed the cut
Report kincsem April 3, 2019 2:08 PM BST
It probably wasn't the Masters.
He only missed the cut once, in 1996, when he was an amateur.
Report lewisham ranger April 3, 2019 2:32 PM BST
It was definitely the masters. maybe he didn't miss the cut, I recall him shooting about four over first round though.

it was around his peak years when he was winning everything
Report lewisham ranger April 3, 2019 2:38 PM BST
it was 2003, just checked. he'd won the last two masters which is why he was so short. shot four over first round and had no real chances after that to win.

set against that the miserly prices of 13-2 on Rory don't look that bad. then again he hadn't won his last two masters Crazy
Report beccaboo April 3, 2019 3:49 PM BST
Talking about tiger and value, in his first British open i bet him @ 5/6 in a match to beat gordon sherry.My, how their careers went in different ways still did not collect though. Gordon beat him to top amateur.
Report kincsem April 3, 2019 4:53 PM BST
I am reading The Majors by John Feinstein (1999) again.
It is a good read.

The US Masters telecast do's and do not's
Not gallery, fans.  Patrons
Not front nine, back nine.  First nine and second nine.
No mention of prizemoney.
Not Jones or Roberts.  Use full names or Mr Jones and Mr Roberts.
No mention of the blue dye in Rae's Creek.
Do not say cottages.  Call them cabins.

If a broadcaster breaks the unwritten rules he gets a McCord/Whitaker scholarship (both were banned).
McCord said the greens looked like they were "bikini waxed", and it was so difficult to escape from behind the 17th green there were body bags lined up there.
Whitaker referred to the patrons around the 18th green as "a mob".
Report Mighty Whites 2008 April 3, 2019 7:48 PM BST
Brooks has apparently lost 2 stone since honda for a photo shoot as he is topless on the front cover for a US magazine. Now claiming his swing is out of sync. Who would have thought
Report Mighty Whites 2008 April 3, 2019 7:49 PM BST
Spieth has the yips can't see how he can compete at Augusta missing two and three footers
Report lewisham ranger April 4, 2019 9:55 AM BST
surprised rose isn't more popular really... playing the best golf of his life and great record around augusta

when he finished second twice he wasn't playing the level of golf that he is now
Report Total Bosman April 4, 2019 1:48 PM BST
Quite something to see Spieth still shorter for the Masters than in an infinitely weaker field one week before.  I know he's classed as a "course expert" but there's only so much course history can do for you if your game's all over the shop.
Report lewisham ranger April 4, 2019 3:16 PM BST
maybe, but he was also playing very badly last year going into the masters, if memory serves me correctly, and his final score would have won all but one of the previous ten editions of the tournament. feel the guy deserves to win another green jacket anyway, and you could certainly argue that one jacket has been a poor reward for his exploits

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2019-jordan-spieths-first-five-years-at-augusta-have-been-truly-historic-and-heres-how
Report lewisham ranger April 4, 2019 4:51 PM BST
fowler going along well in texas. no love for rick the slick? Confused
Report DickTurpin April 7, 2019 2:24 PM BST
2019 US MASTERS SELECTIONS :-

J Thomas @25
P Casey @34
M Kuchar @65
C Howell III @300

GL and enjoy..............
Report jedi sophie April 7, 2019 7:18 PM BST
DT
With you on Casey and Kuchar,away bets certainly.
Rory and Tiger stand out for win purposes.
Looking forward to it immensely.
Usually bet about 8 to begin with.
Plenty can be ruled out entirely.
Report lewisham ranger April 7, 2019 11:43 PM BST
what do people think about tommy Fleetwood in this? I know you don't really rate him jedi, but reminds me a bit of willet... knocking on the door for a while.

I only ask as I recall he was up there in the par three tournament last year, might show some affinity for the course at least.
Report lewisham ranger April 8, 2019 12:46 PM BST
added rose. tend to back him every year at this and I'd be gutted if he won and I didn't back him in the year where he's in the best form of his life, so something of an anti-tilt play.

so far I have

Jordan
tiger
Fleetwood
rose
matsu
day

as my bets. Jordan by far the biggest winner for me.
Report therhino April 8, 2019 1:35 PM BST
Rose has his caddy back this week. Every chance of winning you would think.
Report lewisham ranger April 8, 2019 6:53 PM BST
according to the guy on the sporting life podcast, Spieth has the best shots gained against the field performance of any player in history, if you just count their first five rounds.
Report lewisham ranger April 8, 2019 6:55 PM BST
at the masters that is.
Report mengmeng April 8, 2019 7:51 PM BST
nice and simple, Rory 5 points win, Tiger 2 point eachway. good luck all
Report donny osmond April 8, 2019 10:40 PM BST
stick a tenner on at baldies get £5 free inplay

gives you 10.5/1 rory for a £10

more if you have more than one baldy, and a few mates ...
Report HeinzGuderian April 8, 2019 11:30 PM BST
Jon Rahm           20.91    £195.40  £3,889.61
Adam Scott         50.33    £12.00   £592.00
Xander Schauffele  70.92    £9.67    £676.08
Kevin Kisner      317.43    £10.32   £3,265.58
Gary Woodland     100.00    £4.00    £396.00
Charley Hoffman   200.00    £8.00    £1,592.00
Ian Poulter       200.00    £8.00    £1,592.00
Eddie Pepperell   401.13    £2.65    £1,060.35
Thorbjorn Olesen  242.92    £13.68   £3,309.52
Jimmy Walker      404.06    £4.93    £1,987
£274.93

I commend these selections to the patrons. MischiefPlainCool
Report rommel April 9, 2019 11:14 AM BST
moli, reedy,fleets,be agin rahm woods and the mince
Report rommel April 9, 2019 11:17 AM BST
be good to see poults do well
Report lockup April 9, 2019 2:03 PM BST
Rory 15/2
Tiger 14s & 17.5
Oosthiuzen 49s
Leishman 59s
Stenson 89s

  and the obligatory few quid Poults 80s & 6s top ten.
Report sewter lives again April 9, 2019 5:19 PM BST
already done

Scott 100
Tiger 19

going to add Rory
Report lewisham ranger April 9, 2019 6:12 PM BST
rory could clean out the layers this week.
Report Puggy4 April 9, 2019 6:19 PM BST
Would be interesting to see Sergio digging up the Augusta greens like he did in the middle East
Report jedi sophie April 9, 2019 11:27 PM BST
Lr
Fleetwood not for me,not here,not anywhere really. Overrated imo.
Dont think here sets up that well for him either.

More on Rory n Tiger for me.
Added Brooks for old time sake. And Moli for same.

Couple of rags and I'm set to begin with.

Good luck all. Surely plays softish? To begin with,even with Subair and there tricks..
Report San Quentin April 10, 2019 9:41 AM BST
Is Baldies offer on line or only in shop?
Report lewisham ranger April 10, 2019 10:01 AM BST
sort of feel that rory is planning to grind the course into submission. played a huge number of practice rounds over the last few years so knows every blade of grass now. playing so well this year that almost bound to be in contention. whether that strategy will work out, I guess we'll see, but the 9 available on betfair looks a bit on the big side to me. I'd have him around three points shorter.
Report rommel April 10, 2019 11:55 AM BST
much too much noise about rory-how the stars are all aligned etc,ok great win the other week....but he hasnt been up there really consistently has he
Report Total Bosman April 10, 2019 12:44 PM BST
Rory hasn't been outside the top 10 in a tournament all year, and hasn't been outside the top 10 in the Masters since 2013..  If that's not being up there really consistently (on either measure) I don't know what is.
Report therhino April 10, 2019 12:47 PM BST

Apr 10, 2019 -- 4:01AM, lewisham ranger wrote:


sort of feel that rory is planning to grind the course into submission. played a huge number of practice rounds over the last few years so knows every blade of grass now. playing so well this year that almost bound to be in contention. whether that strategy will work out, I guess we'll see, but the 9 available on betfair looks a bit on the big side to me. I'd have him around three points shorter.


3 ticks or 3 points? I think he's well priced as well, but I'm not a backer at 6s...

Report rommel April 10, 2019 12:57 PM BST

Apr 10, 2019 -- 6:44AM, Total Bosman wrote:


Rory hasn't been outside the top 10 in a tournament all year, and hasn't been outside the top 10 in the Masters since 2013..

Report rommel April 10, 2019 12:58 PM BST
great stats bos,just the edge at the top for mine with the mince...gl
Report GoBallistic April 10, 2019 1:19 PM BST
I'm a bit worried this could be a bit of a slog where the shorter hitters have no chance.  The course got drenched the last couple of days and more thundery showers forecast from day 2 onwards
Report lewisham ranger April 10, 2019 1:46 PM BST
that could well be right... some of these holes tough to hit in fair conditions. could be a bombers paradise this week.
Report sewter lives again April 10, 2019 2:17 PM BST
Scott 100
Tiger 19
Li 240
Koepka 34
Rory 9

Hoffman first round leader @ 40

Hovland top amateur and also had a cheeky bet top European e/w @ 300/1
Report toberaheena April 10, 2019 2:26 PM BST
I'm starting by trying to get through to the McIlroy psyche. He was Tigered in his matchplay with Woods. That I was amazed at however we saw it happen. Strokeplay will be different as long as the 2 are not paired. In any event .McIlroy may still need to improve his nerve at putting. Even after all that, I think Rory may be good enough to lead after 1 or 2 rounds.

Possible winners for me are Rahm, Molinari, Rose a token tenner on Lowry.
Report therhino April 10, 2019 2:37 PM BST
Rahm and Rory the two standouts for me. Rory for obvious reasons, Rahm if his head is screwed on has the game to bring Augusta to it's knees.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 10, 2019 2:42 PM BST
Rhino, Monday morning masters at the golf club - brekie, shotgun start about 10am ?
Report therhino April 10, 2019 2:47 PM BST
Lovely weather Monday so would be a treat but don't think it's on the cards Sad

Been hitting them good lately as well Cool
Report lewisham ranger April 10, 2019 3:04 PM BST
TW striping it on the range

15 on the cards Cool
Report Total Bosman April 10, 2019 3:24 PM BST
The current forecast for "strong afternoon storms" on Sunday is a concern.  Presumably hell will freeze over before the green jackets would put them out early off both tees to get in before the weather so I won't be making plans for Monday.
Report Hank Hill April 10, 2019 6:14 PM BST
Coley always worth a read imo some good insight and humourous

https://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/the-masters-player-by-player-guide/164189
Report HeinzGuderian April 10, 2019 9:12 PM BST

Apr 10, 2019 -- 8:37AM, therhino wrote:


Rahm and Rory the two standouts for me. Rory for obvious reasons, Rahm if his head is screwed on has the game to bring Augusta to it's knees.


This lad knows! Silly

Report frames April 10, 2019 9:32 PM BST
Someone fancies the young Norwegian amateur to make the cut.
Report saxon farm April 11, 2019 12:45 AM BST
The opening poster suggests McIlroy will attempt to grind the course into submission.
I vehemently disagree.
To go Gung-Ho around there is follly.
The boring old cliche of patience! remains the essence of success.
GL all.
Report lewisham ranger April 11, 2019 9:13 AM BST
you are probably right saxon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_Desert_Classic
this is interesting
2016 willet won the omega desert classic
that year he won the masters
2017 sergio garcia won the omega desert classic
that year he won the masters
2019 bryson dechambeau won the omega desert classic
Report therhino April 11, 2019 10:00 AM BST
Geez Fleetwood backers are just full of enthusiasm.
Report frames April 11, 2019 10:01 AM BST
Tommy seems to be liked.
Report jedi sophie April 11, 2019 10:05 AM BST
Pile in ladsExcitedLaugh

Not long now boys,picking through these old threads becoming a real gripe though.....

Pain in the arse ffs
Report therhino April 11, 2019 10:10 AM BST
Shorter than Brooks, Moli, Casey, and Spieth now.

They do know he's never won anything right?
Report frames April 11, 2019 10:10 AM BST
Does he work for BF , a nicker an hour ?
Report frames April 11, 2019 10:14 AM BST
One layer had a pleasant surprise this morning ,Kaymer backed down to 100.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 11:23 AM BST
Tommy could overtake Tiger and JT before the off.  Just don't see it - wouldn't have him shorter than Frankie for starters.
Report therhino April 11, 2019 11:29 AM BST
I would in no way have him shorter than Casey but he's 11 points to the good Crazy. To be honest, Day, Bubba and Xander all more likely to win and priced in the 40s CrazyCrazy

Every major it seems there is a plunge before the off that defies all logic, just Tommy's turn I guess.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 11:37 AM BST
Yeah, wouldn't read much into it in terms of actual probability, probably more to do with the fact he's English and well-liked.  If you're looking for a guy with a decent run of recent results and a few nothing-to-shout-about runs round Augusta you'd be as well backing Kisner at 6 times the price, but he's not English and doesn't have long hair.
Report lewisham ranger April 11, 2019 12:00 PM BST
does anyone know if there's anywhere I can watch the featured groups online? I have sky go on my laptop but doesn't have the red button.
Report frames April 11, 2019 12:03 PM BST
I thought I had done ok laying him at 28, topped up at 25 and now they are taking 24.I'm out of ammo.
Report therhino April 11, 2019 12:09 PM BST
In fairness to Tommy TB, it is a sensational head of hair.
Report Sports Fan April 11, 2019 12:17 PM BST
It is therhino....and what better reason could anyone possibly have to back a player?  There is also a twitter impersonation of him going around which will have undoubtedly contributed to the flood of money.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 12:20 PM BST
Every year I tell myself to sit on my hands and not get heavily involved before I start, every year there's one who drags me in...
Report therhino April 11, 2019 12:40 PM BST
Keith? Sneds maybe?
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 12:46 PM BST
Talking about the other side, getting redder and redder on Tommy.  Taken a flyer on some big prices as usual, Walker, Stanley and Kaymer (not at 100) all big wins for me having shown glimpses of form recently, and an absolute punt on Hovland.  Also going in green on Moli and Kis.
Report bustino April 11, 2019 12:58 PM BST
Have a decent bet on Brooks at 34 drifting here to 36s my thinking is he,ll contend or if he putts like last few tournies will be out with washing and can re-assess things on moving day prefer one decent bet from off and 3 majors from 5 winning tournaments is a pretty impressive stat good luck with your w/end
Report Sports Fan April 11, 2019 1:02 PM BST
Total....have a look on Sportsbook "Enhanced win only" for Fleetwood....could possibly help if you can get a bet on.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 1:08 PM BST
Good spot SF, Betfair considerably less bullish on his chances than their exchange customers.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 1:09 PM BST
"max £10"
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 1:18 PM BST
The other problem with Fleetwood's price is I'm now using it as a yardstick for the other prices and it's tempting me into others - by every measure I can think of (current form, course form, world ranking) Casey should be shorter than Fleetwood.  So now I'm thinking about backing Casey.  And I never back Casey.
Report lewisham ranger April 11, 2019 1:24 PM BST
maybe Fleetwood will just walk it?! Crazy
Report Sports Fan April 11, 2019 1:27 PM BST
I wouldn't be using Fleetwood's price as my yardstick Total.  There has been a lot of money for him recently in a few tournaments.  Remember the Arnold Palmer a few weeks back?? THEY KNEW!!! Also....remember how good a Thurs/Fri player Tommy is....almost on Keegans level!!  Oh God....is Tommy a bet @ 25's?!!  I've looked at this market too long....21 players is enough for me.
Report Total Bosman April 11, 2019 1:32 PM BST
And we're off...to the day one thread?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 2:16 PM BST
WHICH ONE Tongue Out
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com