Golf
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Morning all. So after a whole week of it's nearly time to get going again! I'm guessing most people who have read my threads over last two years know how it all works by now but just in case anyone is reading this for the first time I'll briefly re cap.
I'll pick 4 or 5 players each week, normally 5 depending on size of the field, and will look to post these selections Monday PM/Early Evening or Tues AM at latest depending on when most/all firms prices are up. The prices I post will be best available at the time of posting with high street firms. Normally selections will be e/w & I'll make clear what e/w terms I'm taking [first 5, first 6 etc]. I'll also make clear how many points I'm staking. I'll then post the following Monday the results from the week giving a running total each week for the season showing where I am re profit/loss etc for season. Those that have been following over the past couple of seasons will know that we've made a combined profit over the 2yrs of about 35pts. Not enough to retire on obviously but it sure beats losing!
In addition to the main selections each week I shall then also post a 'one to trade' selection on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the event, which is basically a player I don't necessarily think is a possible winner or even likely to place but I think will 'go well' at least for a round or two & will therefore offer a good trading opportunity. Unless it is a limited field event this player will be trading at 200 plus at the time of selection.
The target for them is to then trade at least a quarter of this price during the event. My tactics with the trader is to lay back 3 x times my initial stake if/when the player hits the target price meaning I have doubled my money if they hit this price whilst still having a decent chunk green to trade some more or let ride if they get right in the mix in the event.
To give a simple example if say I had £10 on a player at 200 this would obviously give a £2000 green. If I then lay £30 at 50 I have a guaranteed £20 profit whilst still having a £500 green left on the player.
To be honest I was disappointed with how the traders fared in 16/17 compared to the previous yr [where 2 of them actually won] & the best performance came from Poulter at Sawgrass who went very well for us at a very big price. Hopefully we'll fare better on the trader this year.
Finally as I'm sure most of you who read this are aware I post my picks on twitter each week as well, sometimes before on here. In addition I also post updates & useful info where possible through the week so if you're not already following me on twitter & are able to please do so. @sundogmonkey
As always thanks thanks to everyone for taking the time to read this & here's to a profitable season! First selections for the Safeway Open will be up later tomorrow/Tues AM.
I'll pick 4 or 5 players each week, normally 5 depending on size of the field, and will look to post these selections Monday PM/Early Evening or Tues AM at latest depending on when most/all firms prices are up. The prices I post will be best available at the time of posting with high street firms. Normally selections will be e/w & I'll make clear what e/w terms I'm taking [first 5, first 6 etc]. I'll also make clear how many points I'm staking. I'll then post the following Monday the results from the week giving a running total each week for the season showing where I am re profit/loss etc for season. Those that have been following over the past couple of seasons will know that we've made a combined profit over the 2yrs of about 35pts. Not enough to retire on obviously but it sure beats losing!
In addition to the main selections each week I shall then also post a 'one to trade' selection on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the event, which is basically a player I don't necessarily think is a possible winner or even likely to place but I think will 'go well' at least for a round or two & will therefore offer a good trading opportunity. Unless it is a limited field event this player will be trading at 200 plus at the time of selection.
The target for them is to then trade at least a quarter of this price during the event. My tactics with the trader is to lay back 3 x times my initial stake if/when the player hits the target price meaning I have doubled my money if they hit this price whilst still having a decent chunk green to trade some more or let ride if they get right in the mix in the event.
To give a simple example if say I had £10 on a player at 200 this would obviously give a £2000 green. If I then lay £30 at 50 I have a guaranteed £20 profit whilst still having a £500 green left on the player.
To be honest I was disappointed with how the traders fared in 16/17 compared to the previous yr [where 2 of them actually won] & the best performance came from Poulter at Sawgrass who went very well for us at a very big price. Hopefully we'll fare better on the trader this year.
Finally as I'm sure most of you who read this are aware I post my picks on twitter each week as well, sometimes before on here. In addition I also post updates & useful info where possible through the week so if you're not already following me on twitter & are able to please do so. @sundogmonkey
As always thanks thanks to everyone for taking the time to read this & here's to a profitable season! First selections for the Safeway Open will be up later tomorrow/Tues AM.
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Great start to year, seem to have managed to post the thread twice! We'll run with this one!
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Safeway Open Picks
Here we go then with first team of the new season! C Reavie 40-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 L Glover 50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 S Brown 90-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 C Tringale 125-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 T Merritt 150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 Good luck all for the week & the season! |
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Safeway Open 'One to Trade'.
M Kim - Top 5 last yr & hoping a return to California can get him back on track. Currently trading 190-210. |
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Safeway Open Results
A frustrating opening week to season with several of the team threatening to do something at various times but all fading in the end. Results as follows; Reavie 13th Glover 30th Tringale 43rd Brown 62nd Merritt 69th Weekly Tally -10pts Seasons Tally -10pts Trader M Kim M/C after a decent rnd 1. |
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CIMB Picks
Lahiri 33s Woodland 33s Poulter 35s Bradley 80s Rodgers 100s All 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 Good luck all! |
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CIMB 'One to Trade'
D Love III Played well here before & is a course specialist @ a similar tree lined course at the Wyndham which former champ Moore has also won on. The market assumption is because of his age he can't win but he's more than capable of going well & his current exchange price of 590 is ridiculous. |
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CIMB Results
Bradley 2nd Lahiri 10th Rodgers 23rd Woodland 28th Poulter 58th Weekly Tally +11pts Seasons Tally +1pt Trader DL3 did the business for us in rnd 1 as well trading as low as 80 so a decent week all round. |
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CJ Cup Picks
P Reed 33-1 1/4 1st 5 S Kang 50-1 1/5 1st 6 G McDowell 125-1 1/4 1st 5 CT Pan 150-1 1/5 1st 6 K Kraft 250-1 1/5 1st 6 All 1pt e/w There is some method in my madness I promise!, which I'll explain on twitter shortly when I post tips there. Good luck all! |
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CJ Cup Trader
Gavin Green Not much to go on here obviously, just a hunch that with the pressure off after last weeks home game he may have a decent week. Currently trading @ 460-480 |
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CJ Cup Results
Reed 11th Kraft 44th Pan 47th Kang 54th Gmac 64th Weekly Tally -10pts Seasons Tally -9pts A bit frustrating Reed wasn't able to sneak a place, particularly as a birdie @ par 5 18th in rnd 4 as opposed to a bogey would have got us full place money. There was some joy on the week in the form of our trader Green who had a great rnd 1 & traded at the target price. |
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sdm
Interesting thread. I also went through your sels for 2016/17. My main investments are in horseracing , but have add some nice returns playing the golf markets this year. My one observation ( advice?) I would offer up to you ( based on my serious betting on horses for the past 8 years), is to ignore ew betting, and invest on win bets only. I.e your 1 pt ew , becomes 2 points win. So same overall stake invested remains the same. I would be interested in your return/ profit or loss, in the whole of last Season, if you had backed your selection win only ( using the place stake as a win stake) My own experience over each of the past 8 years, is a significant increase in profits, by betting to win only( converting the 1 pt ew into 2 points to win) I know you'd have lost the returns on the bets that were placed, but I would guess this would be more than made up for the ' doubling ' of stake on the winners. Look forward to viewing your reply and the P/L analysis. |
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facts
ew terms in golf are far better than in horse racing sometimes 1/4 odds first 7 your observations may still be correct of course |
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WGC HSBC Picks
Cheers for your observations Facts & for taking time to read thread. It's not an analysis I've done of late. When I get time I'll go over last yr out of curiosity. As Donny says e/w terms in golf are way more attractive than in H Racing & a large chunk of my returns are 66-1/80-1 shots that finish 5th etc. It also keeps to make Sunday Evenings more interesting if you've got a 100-1 shot 2 shots out of the places going in to rnd 4! Anyway on to this weeks picks. D Berger 40-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 M Fitzpatrick 45-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 T Pieters 70-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 K Stanley 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 6 I'll potentially be adding 1 more later today/tomorrow. |
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Sandersons Farms Picks
A Landry 45-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5 B Garnett 50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6 S Kaufman 80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5 D McCarthy 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7 S Jaeger 150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6 Good luck all for both events this week! |
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WGC Final Pick & E/W Double!
Have added L Glover to WGC Team 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 6. In addition I've gone with a 1/4 pt e/w double on Glover in WGC @ 100s & Jaeger in Sandersons @ 100s. E/W terms are 1/5 1st 6. |
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HSBC WGC Trader
H Swafford - Another long hitting ball striker who'll hopefully take to this track. Currently trading @ 380 |
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totally agree with facts
backing each way just costs you more plus a lot of bookies only offer five places which is horrific. I think it's fair enough perhaps to back each way if your guy is 300-1 or bigger, and you are only doing one bet. But a lot of punters probably naively think "what can go wrong" when deciding to back each way, as if getting one placed in the top few places is easy when you have 150 runners in an average event. |
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WGC - HSBC Results
Morning all. So I've done a bit of analysis on the E/W v Win Only argument & I would have been approx 55pts worse of in 16/17 if I'd backed all my players 2pts win only instead of 1pt e/w. Agree that if you're backing at 25s/33s only week in week out e/w won't help you long term but if you're backing players @ 3 fig prices regularly the e/w return keeps u in the game & can give a good return. For example last season I had Fleetwood place @ 200s, Piercy @ 200s [shared place] Hagy @ 150s, Hadwin @ 100s as well as several others @ 66s, 80s etc. It's also worth noting I do occasionally go win only on the big guns. For example had DJ 3pts win @ Gemini last season. This season I'm yet to have an outright winner but have now returned over 33 pts on place return on an 80-1 shot & 100-1 shared place...which brings me on to WGC results... Stanley 5th [shared 2 places with 2 others] Fitzpatrick 9th Berger 24th Glover 50th Pieters 71st Event Tally +3.66pts Seasons Tally -6.33pts Trader Swafford started OK but couldn't push on. |
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Actually seasons tally should be -5.33pts. Every point counts!
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sdm
Maybe - from your analysis - that's a start to try and exclude a significant part of losing bets . ie only bet each way on ( say) 66/1, or greater odds. |
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Sandersons Farm Results
Interesting idea Facts. Perhaps something to consider for the future. Meanwhile another e/w return to report! Kaufman 4th [Shared 2 places with 2 others] Garnett 43rd Jaeger 51st Landry 59th McCarthy M/C Event Tally + 3.66 Pts Seasons Tally -1.66pts |
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Morning all. So I've done a bit of analysis on the E/W v Win Only argument & I would have been approx 55pts worse of in 16/17 if I'd backed all my players 2pts win only instead of 1pt e/w. Agree that if you're backing at 25s/33s only week in week out e/w won't help you long term but if you're backing players @ 3 fig prices regularly the e/w return keeps u in the game & can give a good return.
Worth repeating imho.....keep her lit. |
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Shriners Picks
Sticking with the e/w strategy chaps! Picks as follows. W Simpson 22-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 B An 50-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5 K Streelman 50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 B Silverman 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 P Kizzire 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 Good luck all! |
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Agreed. But I'd still stay away from those comparatively short odds ew bets.
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Shriners Trader
B Gay - Decent last week. Old plodders have a surprisingly good record here. Currently trading 360 + |
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surely the maths are that you are getting enhanced odds because your
win covers the place risk to bookies if anything the argument should be to back em place only at double steak best of luck getting on with the books 1/4 odds first 6 place only! |
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Shriners Results
So another nice e/w return to keep us ticking along! Results as follows; Kizzire 4th Simpson 20th An 32nd Silverman 47th Streelman 67th Weekly Tally +11pts Seasons Tally +9.33pts Trader Gay after an OK rnd 1 flopped Rnd 2 & M/C |
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OHL Mayakoba
1st Pick. Ollie Schneiderjans 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5. Getting it up now as price is way too big in my book! |
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reed has gone well here in the past- seems a reasonable selection- what do you think monkey?
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OHL Full Picks
Evening Lewisham. I must confess I can't c that he's actually played here before?? Either way he's proved very frustrating this yr so whilst it's quite possible it could all click for him this week & he hacks up he's not for me at the price. I've taken 6 this week in the end as follows; G McDowell 50-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5 O Schneiderjans 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5 P Kizzire 66-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7 R Knox 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5 A Baddeley 125-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6 B Stuard 150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7 As always good luck all! |
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sorry monkey, was getting this tournament mixed up with the one in hawaii.
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OHL 'One to Trade'
No worries Lewisham, as I say he could quite easily spring to life this week. Trader for this week is R Barnes. Never done much here before but it should really be his sort of course. Top 10 a couple of weeks ago. Currently trading @ 450+ |
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Might take Barnes as frl then sundog. If you think he might go well as he often has a storming first round every so often
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Very well done sundog.!
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OHL MAYAKOBA Results
Cheers Facts, a cracking week indeed! Results as follows; P Kizzire 1st !!! B Stuard 9th R Knox 9th G Mac 34th A Baddeley 74th Schneiderjans was a Non Runner. Weekly Tally +70.2 pts Seasons Tally +79.53pts Trader R Barnes also did us proud in Rnd 1 reaching the target trade price of 110. Hopefully you traded him rather than had him for FRL CCmac! |
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Brilliant ! Nuff respect Sundog !
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RSM Classic Picks
Cheers MoneyShot, certainly nice to have a winning week near the end of the yr! This weeks picks as follows; Z Johnson 33-1 1/5 1st 6 J Lovemark 40-1 1/4 1st 5 O Schniederjans 40-1 1/4 1st 5 Whee Kim 80-1 1/4 1st 5 B Gay 100-1 1/5 1st 7 All 1pt e/w. Good luck all! |
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RSM 'One to Trade'.
D Fathauer. Seems to play his best golf around this time of yr & whilst no great success here before this course should suit his game. Currently trading @ 370+. |