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Can't Catch Me
20 Oct 15 16:20
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 28,246 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Just two for me this week.

Anirban Lahiri has gone well here before, and freshened up after his great showing in the PGA, I'm having a dabble at 25-1, even though it was a bit shorter than I hoped for.

But may main bet is Lucas Bjerregaard at 50-1. Got some very good form here and seems to be a much improved player this season.

Good luck one and all.

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Replies: 92
By:
ashleigh
When: 20 Oct 15 18:08
gone for the rising star, and 3 with the best course form.
 
m fitzpatrick 
m fraser 
m jimenenez 
l bjerregaard
By:
sonofshinner
When: 21 Oct 15 08:54
2m Euro prize pot
15th holding of event (all here!)
PAR 70
Plays 6699yards
4 water holes
Hole 12 will be a good watch, it has a double fairway and intersting to see how brave the players are.

Will probably suit long drivers as fairways are pretty forgiving compared to many on the tour (Dustin Johnson).
Last two years have resulted in a playoff. THANKS TO RALFIE1982@O.L.B.G.
By:
sonofshinner
When: 21 Oct 15 19:26
lay of Rose for me@7.6
By:
toberaheena
When: 22 Oct 15 20:26
@sonofshinner...hope you are not in too much trouble with that lay of Justin Rose. I kept laying him last week and he just would not go away until the very last 8 holes or so. So, what I'm saying is, maybe , do not panic. A long, long way to go.

Myself, after bothering to get out of bed at 5 am this morning to check on a bet on Fowler in the US. , I had traded a free €200 green on him. All was ok at -2 until he found water and is paddling since. No chance now. My picks in the PGA event are nearly all out of it all ready so last week was only beginners luck. This Fitzpatrick kid may be a serious player for the future. Stays the distance as well. Rose price below 4.00 at this stage is paramount to a ludicrous offer and value to lay . Why.Mathematics and euros. Surely will trade higher over the next 3 days. Different diet and culture has more of an effect on a Westerner than most comprehend.
By:
johnnythebull
When: 23 Oct 15 20:14
US diet ain't that badWink
By:
ashleigh
When: 24 Oct 15 10:20
so can't catch me, sonofshinner and me all cheering on l bjerragaard.   
on sky from 4am tomorrow.
By:
throwthetellyoutawindow
When: 24 Oct 15 21:33
Great call CCM good luck in final round anyway hope ur sitting pretty already Cool
By:
johnnythebull
When: 24 Oct 15 22:00
thought Rose's score flattered him somewhat,scrambled well & holed some putts..should win but wouldn't be a backer
Bjerr played lights out for 16 holes but missed that birdie on 17 then wobbled a bit on 18
Lahiri can go low
Fitz missed some putts should've been a fair bit closer
hope yer man wins 4 u CCM unless i back smn elseWink
By:
toberaheena
When: 25 Oct 15 01:56
@Ashleigh...... I am almost sure Sky coverage begins at 3.00 am. Best of luck to those needing a non Rose winner. Grin and bare it looks the only option before play really settles into the final round. One option I very rarely use is to punt my way out of trouble, which means having a mighty whack of a win bet on my current loser to make him a neutral on the book. Takes bottle and not for the faint hearted. Rose is getting some rakers in the early rounds, and that is why he is up there. If he starts to putt like his normal self, I give young Fitzy a little chance. On the U.S. , for a decent top 10 finish I think Cameron Tringale may be an option but I am holding fire on my current book. No bet here so far.
By:
ashleigh
When: 25 Oct 15 07:20
2 shot swing.Happy
By:
ashleigh
When: 25 Oct 15 08:30
likely blown it.
By:
johnnythebull
When: 25 Oct 15 08:59
Bjerr choked like a dog from the turn on..putted unreal but basically has blown this
another tournament Rose 'wins' courtesy of being gifted it
hope u were up to lay off ur man @ 1.66 CCM
By:
rommel
When: 25 Oct 15 09:21
bjerr you fckn hound
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Oct 15 09:22
Sad

Cheers lads. Yes laid some off but still win significantly more if he could have got over the line. Decent effort from him all the same.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 00:56
ROLL ON 2016...

UBS Hong Kong Open 2016




THE FINAL EVENT of this calendar year but only the third of a new 2017 EURO TOUR season takes place in FANLING (HKGC). Back in 2015, the tournament was held in October and was the final opportunity for those around the top 110 on the RtoD to retain their playing privileges for the following season.
This new schedule change means there ought to be a more relaxed atmosphere in 2016 BUT players will still see it as a chance to BANK SOME CASH in the early season.....or lose it all on Highland Reel 1/1 and Maurice 13/8 in the HK Vase and HK Cup respectively at Sha Tin on Sunday afternoon.

One of the few Pro Golf events to have remained at the same venue for such a long period of time - The Masters and Crans-sur-Sierre and the European Masters can only  compare. The 58th staging (since '59) of the UBS Hong Kong Open at Fanling and the 16th time it’s been part of the European Tour schedule. A co-sanctioned event by the Asian Tour and The Hong Kong Golf association, Hong Kong PGA and the Chinese PGA receive exemptions for this tournament highlighting its place of pride in the region.

One of the shortest on Tour at 6,710 yards par 70, a very traditional old-school track, a tight tree-lined course but ‘a great test of golf’ with Bermuda greens and ‘not easy’ as the course has four dogleg left and two dogleg right holes. Course management on this narrow layout demands accuracy and a strategic approach where hitting greens and scrambling are the key stats as 36-year-old Rose proved last year by finishing 1st in both, with a 17 under 65-66-64-68. The ‘amazing’ 410yds 18th is a great finishing hole with water, trees, heavy bunkering plus a famously elusive green with par four an excellent score - one of the two hardest holes on the course last time out, plus the 9th - while the par five 13th, one of the two par fives, was ranked the easiest hole last year.


Some famous names are on the trophy and they include major winners Peter Thomson, Greg Norman, Ian Woosnam, Bernhard Langer, Tom Watson, Jose Maria Olazabal, Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy and, most recently, last year’s champ Justin Rose. Also notable second place finishers were K.J Choi (twice), Thongchai Jaidee, Prom Meesawat, Philippino Angelo Que, Italians Matteo Manassero and Francesco Molinari, Ireland’s Harrington and RORY (twice). 3-time MAJOR Winner 53yo Monty won it too btw - one of the greatest Ryder Cup players of all time, a member of eight European Teams, never lost in a singles match and was 2010 Captain (with Thomas Bjørn as his vice-captain), now we have that ‘Danish Ham’ to listen to until 2018.


While Dustbin Johnson also headlined in 2015 (69,72 to MC by one) - A star-studded 2016 cast (Four of the T50 OWGR in this 126 player field - 144 played in 2015) include defending champion and Rio Olympics Gold Medallist Justin Rose #15 is ‘back’ (as in recurring ‘back’ problems so may be trouble ahead - due to touch down in HK today) alongside reigning Masters Champ Danny ‘back too’ Willett #12 (for the first time since 2011) and fully fit and healthy Ryder Cup stars 15/2 Patrick Reed #8 and 16/1 shot Rafa Cabrera Bello #33. Former Hong Kong champions Scott Hend #60, Ian James Poulter #171 and Miguel Ángel Jiménez #231, victorious four times might also feature along with other notables 47yo Thongchai Jaidee #52, Kiradech Aphibarnrat #80, and  S.S.P. Chawrasia #215 of India and Chinese greats Liang Wen-chong, Zhang Lian-wei and 19yo rising star, Dou Ze-cheng 300/1 in Spoils.


God help those writing out the docket for Thailand’s Jazz Janewattananond, Panuphol Pittayarat, Natipong Srithong, Thanyakon Khrongpha, Pavit Tangkamolprasert, Thitiphun Chuayprakong, Chinnarat Phadungsil, Pariya Junhasavasdikul and China’s Yannick Nathan Artigolle. Anyone fancy those Pharkheen Youzlesskharnts.



TV Coverage: Sky Sports 4... Thursday from 6am, Friday from 6am, Saturday from 4.30am & Sunday from 4am....So set them alarms early !

FIRST TEE TIME IS 11pm on Wednesday night (7am HK time).
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 10:15
fancy...REED ROSE Dylan Frittelli Jason Scrivener Soo-Min Lee
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 10:43
How many holes will ROSE play ?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 16 12:01
Rafa Cabrera Bello looks a stand out bet to me this week. Greens in regulation the biggest stat here and that's his forte. Reed looked out of form last weekend, and he and Rose are very short imo.

Couple of outsiders I like are David Lipsky ew at 50/1 and Marcus Fraser at 80/1. The latter loves this tournament, has some excellent form here and played well enough in Dubai and South Africa recently. Doesnt look a particularly deep field here.

Good luck.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 12:24
Can we rule out players who are having their first attempt at this course ?


The likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Dylan Frittelli, Alexander Bjork, Paul Dunne, Haydn Porteous, Nathan Kimsey & Yannick Nathan Artigolle.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 16 13:40
Not sure you can ever do that cmiyc, and Fleetwood is in decent form. But it definitely takes a certain type of player
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 15:54
Rafa is 5th in that GIR stat with HK debutants Ben HEBERT in 7th (finished T4 in SA last week) and Fleetwood at 11th. Jaidee is 71st btw but 3rd in scrambling.
By:
ashleigh
When: 07 Dec 16 18:01
backed.
t jaidee
s hend
s lee
m fraser

good luck all.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 19:48
REED.....Pat (formerly Patrick – ask Tiger). 15/2.
RAFA.....Yet another Spanish HK winner. 14/1.
Jeung-Hun WANG.....South Korea’s best. 25’s.
LIPSKY.....let’s roll the dice on this Las Vegas lad. 45/1.
POULTER.....another WIN for Ian & Engerland. tia. 28/1.

Rose (r).....Jiménez is the only one to defend this title recently.

No place for Jaidee.....A Thai curry fighting for a T50 OWGR Masters invite.

HAPPY CHRISTMAS. Seng Dan Fai Lok. 圣诞快乐 Devil
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 20:12
IN 2015 Jason Scrivener 200/1 & Soo-Min Lee 300/1 finished T3 making their debut here while Germany's 175/1 shot Bernd Ritthammer Missed-the-Cut also on his debut.

THIS YEAR a big priced debutant might be Ireland's Paul Dunne 100/1ew or England's Nathan Kimsey 300/1ew (540 on here) - 5 pls, 6 with PP. © CMiyc Devil
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 20:14
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQN1ojoOqarh_1siGa5s-sFE3oqeMK5lSX1eQHo1IF4xzSy74owjBBsnwwOf-73T3CrnsuOdceWwe7s/pubhtml#

Devil
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 07 Dec 16 20:15
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQN1ojoOqarh_1siGa5s-sFE3oqeMK5lSX1eQHo1IF4xzSy74owjBBsnwwOf-73T3CrnsuOdceWwe7s/pubhtml# . Devil
By:
padlock
When: 08 Dec 16 06:29
Rose looking a bit wooden
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 08 Dec 16 11:57
A DAY ONE STAT...tks Steve-the-punter.

AFTER Round One in 2015 Rose sat tied for third and just one swing off the lead and he led all the way after that with runner-up Bjerregaard hot on his heels all the way to the line - and that is fairly typical of how this event tends to pan out.

Jimenez (in 2013) is the only HK Open winner this century to shoot an opening round in the 70s (shot even par 70), and he was the first to trail by more than five strokes after day one. The vast majority of winners here are up with the pace all the way - the last two winners and six of the seven winners before Jimenez three years ago - were within three strokes of the lead and inside the top-five after round one. The only exception was Ian Poulter but he was in front by halfway – well he did shoot a second round 60! This isn't a catch-up course and you really do need a good start.

THEREFORE: 1. trail by more than five strokes 2. within three strokes of the lead 3. inside the top-five.

RAFA leads at -6, so maybe include anyone even par or better BUT favour those within 3 strokes (-3 or better – i.e. T21 players) and even better, already have your money on those inside T5 (T12 players at -4 or better). There’s 67 players at even par or better with REED & ROSE already looking for a ‘happy ending’ back at The Peninsula – any recommendations??? Cabrera Bello has been one of the stand-out performers of 2016, not missing a single cut and finishing eighth on the Race-to-Dubai Rankings. Rafa was 15th here in 2011, having missed the cut the previous year.

Sébastien Gros at -5 is making his debut here after two MC in his last two events – in SA last week having been 4th in 2015 and even missed cut in Portugal ffs – Ok he spent 2014 on the Asian Tour before coming through the first two stages of the European Tour Qualifying School, only to miss out on graduation by a single shot at the Final Stage after bogeying each of the last three holes, well he is French after all. Lives in Geneva and MC in Wentworth & down the street in Crans-sur-Sierre, similar tests of accuracy - best of luck to you, but has to be a no no. Add Benjamin Hebert & Jordan L Smith to this debutant sauce.
Will be interesting to watch if Ireland’s PAUL DUNNE, NATHAN KIMSEY & Mr Fleetwood would buck my debut theory. "It definitely takes a certain type of player" to win here and so if one looks deep enough...

30yo Jbe’ Kruger, is among 10 players at -4, likes it round here with finishes of 41, 21st, 24, 46 & 38th since 2010. One 65 is his low round here while two 66’s in 2014 left him T3 going into the Sunday – but then shoots 74. MC at the Omega European Masters also doesn't bode well?

IF still having a bet then look no further than LIPSKY 20’s 4plcs (already advised 45’s) and/or maybe JAIDEE 14’s in Lads (but v poor value). If Poulter’s worst round is -2 then at 25/1 he’s in the mix on Sunday and will not make the races at Sha Tin.

RAFA WINS, simple – end of thread....HA HA HA HA all the way to the bank Devil
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 09 Dec 16 00:01
RAFA WINS, simple – end of thread....HA HA HA HA all the way to the bank Devil

Yes cus Rafa is mr reliable when he's anywhere near the lead, history tells us this Scared
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 09 Dec 16 00:39
Cabrera Bello has been one of the stand-out performers of 2016, not missing a single cut and finishing eighth on the Race-to-Dubai Rankings. Rafa was 15th here in 2011, having missed the cut the previous year.

YEAH, 1761 days since his last win in the 2012 DUBAI Desert Classic IS a long time...
BUT is he a different player this year ??? after his experiences of WGC-Dell Match Play 3rd - Ryder Cup, undefeated from his three matches - World Cup 8th ???

Anyways, the above HA HA was a little tongue-in-cheek knowing his 'CHOKER' tag from the Sunday Sunnis and Shiites on 'ere.

Just read where he grew up next to a golf course in the Canary Islands, and his sister Emma competes on the Ladies European Tour. Rafa owns a house in Bali, where he loves to spend time surfing...BALI here we come on Sunday night then, win or lose.


LIPSKY @45's WILL DO PLEASE & TYVM.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 09 Dec 16 10:09
No doubt Rafa deserves to win a tournament the way he's played over the last 18 months which is why it would be an even bigger tragedy if he does his usual psychological collapse and loses from here.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Dec 16 10:36
I've got horrible memories about Bjerregard here last year, and Rafa doing it to me countless times already this season.

Fingers crossed he can finally get over the line.
By:
frames
When: 09 Dec 16 11:54
Just saw the clip of Poulter blaming a cameraman for his 8.Bad luck Ian.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Dec 16 14:02
Love that question some lad tweeted him.

Which shot did the camerman put you off for... your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th Laugh
By:
johnnythebull
When: 09 Dec 16 17:11
just watched the highlights,then looked at the betting
which just demonstrates the lack of conviction that this guy can get it done
a sentiment shared by most who follow the game
having said that can't believe how big a price he is on the exchange..1.92..is that uber disrespectful or is it an indicator of his,once again,snatching defeat from the jaws?
magic sign skinniest at 8/13
those behind aren't exactly going to put the fear of God into anyone leading
but,at the end of the day,he is your archetypal bottler par excellence
will he fall over the line or continue to miss putt after putt on sunday?
save the white trousers,Rafa,for your Bali bolthole
By:
padlock
When: 09 Dec 16 17:54
Good pick CCM, poulter blocked me on twitter months ago. ( knobhead)
I wasn't even rude tbh
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Dec 16 07:44
FFS Rafa. Earlier than usual Cry

Five clear to joint leader in a matter of minutes.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Dec 16 07:49
This is painful to watch. What was he thinking there?
By:
ashleigh
When: 10 Dec 16 07:50
rafa losing the plot and bringing everybody back in to this.Wink
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