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gmt
20 Jul 14 10:08
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 1,276 | Blogger: gmt's blog
Weather isnt an issue, 6 shots looks plenty, its just those niggling thoughts of things like when Dennis Taylor beat Steve Davis, when Nick Faldo beat Greg Norman, when Van De Velde threw it away at the 18th and many others that stop you thinking about the new kitchen and the holidays to the Maldives. If he was 1.14 I would trade out but at 1.21 its still a big chunk to give away when in all honesty I think he will shoot a 69 maybe 70 with no real issues on the day. My only real worry is early on in the round and that someone might pick up two birdies and an eagle in the first 5 holes and if Rory is playing percentage golf as I suspect he just may be +1 at that point, if that person who shoots the -4 on those holes is Fowler, then the lead may be only 1, that would be an issue as pressure at that point could really mess with Rorys head and things could happen!!

Anyone else in the same position as me? Would be nice to hear your thoughts.
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Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 10:29 AM BST
I wish I was your position
Report Knight Rider July 20, 2014 10:37 AM BST
It really comes down to how much you need the money.  One good way to think about it is work out how much you would guarantee if you did lay off now at 1.21.  Then ask yourself, would I stick those X pounds on McIlroy at 1.21?

Long term it may not be a good move to lay off, but if you don't find yourself in this position regularly then the long term becomes less relevant.  Good luck!
Report Carrera32 July 20, 2014 10:52 AM BST
Take less profit now and keep your Premium Charge down.
Report gmt July 20, 2014 11:11 AM BST
Yes Knight Rider that's pretty much the process I am using. I will probably stay with the bet. would be very nice if its a case of ""smelling the roses" for 18 holes but no doubt there will be some moments. I was in a similar position with Kaymer in the US Open this year, was on him at 50s for a lot of money and to my regret I traded out for the last round as the course was frightening, still had a great profit but have been regretting giving away some of it in the trade out ever since.
Report vegasdreams July 20, 2014 11:19 AM BST
dependent on what u backed him at, but no brainer to green imo, highly doubt the 0.06 points you say u would get out at is worth the risk - unless u have had millions on! mind saying this i do think he wins it comfortably.
good luck WP.
Report vegasdreams July 20, 2014 11:30 AM BST
Obv again it's wat price your on - if u backed him @ 1.5 forget wat i said - @ 6.0 no brainer
Report patches July 20, 2014 12:05 PM BST
it's funny really if you've layed you know he's going to win but if you've backed him you have doubts , personally I've not had a bet all the way through and 1.2 seems very generous.
Report Ski-Wiz July 20, 2014 12:38 PM BST
It would depend on the field -5 upwards....are they red? could you lay enough to make them £0 then relax?

Another train of thought is to visualise how the round may go. Gap of 6 to increase to 7 (price falls) from the start or will it reduce to 5 (price rises). Will the gap be 4?, 3?, 2? One could lay then back later at a higher price. If you make the chasers £0, how would you handle yourself when the gap closes to 2.....panic or remain calm?

I could green up and Rory will be £6 extra and Fowler £8 extra.....or green up and leave Rory and Fowler alone and boost the greens on them two. Only Garciaev and Dubunov win would be the lowest green of the chasers.
Report patches July 20, 2014 12:43 PM BST
garciaev and dubunov two classic Russians Grin
Report gmt July 20, 2014 1:41 PM BST
Backed him at mostly 13-15s couldn't believe late on I got a fair bit at 20.0.

Someone said what would I do if the lead dimishes to 1 or 2, definitely leave it!

If he birdies the first and the others in the last three groups dont, I think its got to left in place, so everall I think I am just going to see it out to the end!
Report vegasdreams July 20, 2014 1:52 PM BST
between 13 and 20 and your quibbling ove 0.06 - green up man!!! imo lol
Report MadVlad July 20, 2014 2:11 PM BST
Green up as if what you say is true your into him heavily,then as he is trading so short now you will still be winning big with no pressure re-his final round.

How will you feel if he throws it away ?

Although I'm sure you will be telling us you laid him off if that happen's Devil
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:14 PM BST
interesting that the consensus is to green up and I am having second thoughts at the moment !
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 2:16 PM BST
200k was taken @1.21

29k@1.18
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 2:39 PM BST
tee@1.19/Rory
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:40 PM BST
letting it ride!
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:42 PM BST
WOW, driver!
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 2:42 PM BST
great tee shot
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:42 PM BST
That shot shortened him up .03!
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:49 PM BST
OH yes !!!
Report gmt July 20, 2014 2:50 PM BST
Hes pumped!
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 2:52 PM BST
1.11
Report gmt July 20, 2014 3:11 PM BST
ist moment !
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 4:02 PM BST
did you get out 1.1 gmt
Report gmt July 20, 2014 4:09 PM BST
no still in, getting concerned! May pull out if he goes to 1.2 1.21
Report gmt July 20, 2014 4:11 PM BST
That bunker shot was incredible, didn't get the appreciation it deserved!!
Report gmt July 20, 2014 4:24 PM BST
Major relief, nasty half hour that!!!
Report xmoneyx July 20, 2014 4:26 PM BST
n1
Report gmt July 20, 2014 6:17 PM BST
Surely that's it? Managed to hold my nerve all the way, played every shot, exhausted. Nearly greened up at 1.02 before the drive at 18 with the fear of OB, then I saw the iron.
Report MadVlad July 20, 2014 6:19 PM BST
enjoy your £10 @ 20's not often you win in this game Cool
Report gmt July 20, 2014 6:31 PM BST
Cmon, don't get the granite kitchen and Arga for £20 !!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan July 18, 2019 5:36 PM BST
HOW MUCH HAVE YOU LOST THIS WEEK ON RORY ?
HOW MUCH HAVE YOU LOST THIS WEEK ON RORY ?
HOW MUCH HAVE YOU LOST THIS WEEK ON RORY ? Devil
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