Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
kincsem
10 Apr 14 03:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 10,341 | Blogger: kincsem's blog
We hear this “stat” trotted out every year.
"No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.  Players need a few years to learn the course."

I believe that stat is a combination of (1) variance/luck (2) field selection.

(1) variance/luck

These first-timers have come close:
1982: Dan Pohl was beaten in a playoff. He shot 67, 67 in four rounds.
1990: John Huston was 3rd.  He opened with a 66.
1993: Tom Lehman was 3rd. He opened with a 67, and finished with a 68.
1994: Tom Lehman finished 2nd on his second appearance.
1997: Tommy Tolles finished 3rd on his first appearance, 72,72,72,67.
1999: Carlos Franco, Paraguay, his 1st year on the US tour was 6th.
2000: Carlos France was 7th on his 2nd appearance.
2001: Toshimitsu Izawa was 4th shooting a 66 and 67 (not sure if 1st appearance).
2003: Len Mattiace was 2nd, beaten in a playoff.  He played once before, 15 years earlier in 1988, missing the cut.
2004: Paul Casey was 6th on his debut, shooting a 69 and 68.
2005: Mark Hensby was 5th on his debut, opening with 69.
2009: John Merrick, 6th on debut, with a 68, 66.
2011: Justin Day, 2nd on debut, clubhouse leader in a tie with Adam Scott until Charl Schwartzel finished with four birdies to win by two shots.

Those eleven players shot low rounds in 13 tournaments without years of experience.


(2) field selection

The chances of debutants are lowered by Masters field selection rules.
(a)    previous winners (19 of 2014 field)
(b)    previous year top twelve, including ties (4 of 2014 field)
(c)    amateurs  (6 of 2014 field)

Over 50% of Masters were won by repeat winners (counting their first win and subsequent wins.) probably because the field is full of old champions and amateurs that limit realistic contenders.

Many later multiple winners: Nicklaus; Crenshaw; Mickelson, Woods; made their debuts as amateurs, boosting the "didn't win on debut" stat.  They were inexperienced in professional golf on their Masters debut.
Pause Switch to Standard View No debutant has won since Fuzzy...
Show More
Loading...
Report lfc1971 April 10, 2014 8:34 AM BST
You are right, if the stat meant anything then players would improve the more often
they played the course. They don`t. Simply players win majors, apart from a few exceptions,
after playing in a few majors.
Report bigpoppapump April 10, 2014 11:35 AM BST
how many first time triers? How many total entrants? 

With no winners since 1979, and a reasonable underlying logic (it's a course which rewards risk/reward at the right times) suggesting experience will count for something, then it seems a reasonable enough stat.  The fact that you can make a list of first timers who "went close" (didn't win) means nothing.  You could also make a list of players who weren't first timers who went close.  You could also make a list of players who weren't first timers who won the thing.

do the numbers.  Say, for example sake, there have been 50 debutants but 3000 total entrants then fair enough: That's under 2% of total entrants.  No wonder.  But what if debutants represent 10% of total entrants? And they include future winners (all winners have to debut, and they all eventually prove they're good enough, but none has won on debut since then?).  Seems a valid one until you put some numbers on it.  imo.
Report bigpoppapump April 10, 2014 11:38 AM BST
and you've bulked out your list with players second appearance (like Lehmann in 1994).  Either they're on debut or they're not.
Report Tom April 10, 2014 12:06 PM BST
I think one thing to note about this is that the criteria for getting into the Masters has changed massively in recent years with regular tour winners being invited. That means there are more debutants than ever in the last couple of years and demonstrated again this week. I think it is inevitable that we see a debutant winner sooner rather than later and think it is a pretty misleading stat. For many years it was almost a closed shop unless you were in the top 50 in the world. The great youngsters as already mentioned all play as amateurs anyway when their games are nowhere near ready to win here.

How many players win a regular tour tournament on their debut in that event? Reed - WGC Cadillac, Chesson Hadley - PR Open, Harris English x 2, Russell Henley - Sony Open. There may well be more but it shows how few there are when you think of how many debutants tee it up in events all season long. 

I think there must be a few tournaments that can claim debutants have not won there for at least as long as the Masters can. With it being a small field like the WGC events I feel it is inevitable that a debutant wins sooner rather than later if talent keeps emerging each year like this year. I am still shaking my head in disbelief that there are guys who won on tour two weeks ago who are more than 500 this week....Its not as if the top players have proven they are good at closing out at the moment. Also, throw in all the injury doubts.
Report Knight Rider April 10, 2014 12:35 PM BST
I believe I am right in saying that no debutant has won the US Open since 1913!
Report kincsem April 11, 2014 1:13 PM BST
I took the lazy option in picking out debutants who did well, and explaining why most winners couldn't win on their debut (inexperienced amateurs).
The thought did cross my mind to analyse all the Masters fields since 1934, if only to put an end to that "stat".
Of course if I do the legwork the results will be freely available to all. Laugh
Report Ski-Wiz April 11, 2014 1:39 PM BST

Apr 10, 2014 -- 6:35AM, Knight Rider wrote:


I believe I am right in saying that no debutant has won the US Open since 1913!


I think that's no amateur has won the US Open since 1913, not sure about debutant. To be honest the big thing about debutant only goes on and on in The Masters and hardly mentioned in the other 3 majors.

Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 27, 2018 10:36 PM BST
15 debutants in 2018.....NO CHANCE in this 84 man field Devil as we await winner of Shell's Wonderful World of Golf. 

Tony Finau
Xander Schauffele
Dylan Frittelli
Shubhankar Sharma
Patton Kizzire
Li Hao Tong
Austin Cook
Satoshi Kodaira
Wesley Bryan
----------------
Joaquin Niemann
Doug Ghim
Yusaku Miyazato
Harry Ellis
Doc Redman
Lin Yu-Xin
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 27, 2018 11:11 PM BST
kincsem • April 8, 2015 7:36 PM BST
(Par 3) Everyone with a good score returns a no score because of the "stat" that the winner never wins the Masters.
I pray for the year when a debutante wins the Par 3 and wins the Masters in the following days to kill these "stats".
Laugh
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 3, 2018 12:51 AM BST
16 debutants in 2018...sorry missed out another amateur in Matt Parziale...

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/meet-matt-parziale-the-firefighter-who-will-play-in-the-masters

OWGR...
Xander Schauffele #26
Tony Finau #34
Li Hao Tong #42
Satoshi Kodaira #48
Dylan Frittelli #50
Patton Kizzire #52
Yusaku Miyazato #59
Shubhankar Sharma #72
Wesley Bryan #92
Austin Cook #111
----------------
Amateur Rankings...
Joaquin Niemann #1
Doug Ghim #4
Harry Ellis #31
Doc Redman #34
Lin Yu-Xin #152
Matt Parziale #224
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 3, 2019 8:23 PM BST
17 Debutants in 2019
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 3, 2019 8:30 PM BST
= NO CHANCE (therefore 86 man field reduced down to 69)

Subtract 13 Previous Winners at +175/1 (69 man field reduced down to 56 golfers)
Report Mighty Whites 2008 April 3, 2019 11:03 PM BST
debuts

Matt Wallace    36    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Lucas Bjerregaard    43    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Eddie Pepperrell    40    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Keith Mitchell    59    Won 2019 The Honda Classic
Aaron Wise    66    Won 2018 AT&T Bryon Nelson
Kevin Tway    97    Won 2018 Safeway Open
Adam Long    108    Won 2019 Desert Classic
Andrew Landry    121    Won 2018 Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim    326    Won 2018 John Deere Classic

Viktor Hovland    Amateur    2018 U.S. Amateur Champion
Devon Bling    Amateur    2018 U.S. Amateur Runner-up
Jovan Rebula    Amateur    2018 British Amateur Champion
Takumi Kanaya    Amateur    2018 Asia-Pacific Amateur Champion
Alvaro Ortiz    Amateur    2018 Latin America Amateur Champion
Kevin O'Connell    Amateur    2017 U.S. Mid-Amateur Champion
Report Mighty Whites 2008 April 3, 2019 11:03 PM BST
debuts

Matt Wallace    36    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Lucas Bjerregaard    43    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Eddie Pepperrell    40    Finished 2018 in top 50 of OWGR
Keith Mitchell    59    Won 2019 The Honda Classic
Aaron Wise    66    Won 2018 AT&T Bryon Nelson
Kevin Tway    97    Won 2018 Safeway Open
Adam Long    108    Won 2019 Desert Classic
Andrew Landry    121    Won 2018 Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim    326    Won 2018 John Deere Classic

Viktor Hovland    Amateur    2018 U.S. Amateur Champion
Devon Bling    Amateur    2018 U.S. Amateur Runner-up
Jovan Rebula    Amateur    2018 British Amateur Champion
Takumi Kanaya    Amateur    2018 Asia-Pacific Amateur Champion
Alvaro Ortiz    Amateur    2018 Latin America Amateur Champion
Kevin O'Connell    Amateur    2017 U.S. Mid-Amateur Champion
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 4, 2019 12:00 AM BST
+ Black Japan's Shugo Imahira 1000/1 & South African Justin HARDING on at 600/1 here, and in great form 64,2,WIN,mc,mc,4,11,8,51 last 9 events Wink
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 4, 2019 9:50 PM BST
No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979


So Fuzzy Zoeller, then aged 27, stunned the golfing world when he prevailed after a play-off on his debut in the 1979 Masters. The American had claimed his first career victory in San Diego less than three months earlier, but rounds of 70, 71, 69 and 70 were good enough to put him in a three-way tie for the lead on eight under after 72 holes. Tom Watson and Ed Sneed, who bogeyed the final three holes, joined Zoeller on that score, as Jack Nicklaus and Tom Kite both slipped up late in their rounds, to force the first sudden-death play-off at Augusta.
All three players parred the first play-off hole - the 10th - after missing birdie putts, and it was Zoeller who took his second chance at the 11th by holing an eight-foot birdie putt to claim the title. "I've never been to heaven and thinking back on my life I probably won't get the chance to go. I guess winning the Masters is as close as I'm going to get," said Zoeller when later reflecting on his victory.


Roll on 2019 - that Stat will be broken 40 YEARS LATER.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 6, 2019 1:57 AM BST
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2019-what-was-it-like-for-tour-pros...
Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 6, 2019 1:57 AM BST
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2019-what-was-it-like-for-tour-pros...

.Devil
Report stephaniebot April 6, 2019 9:50 AM BST
I'm not saying they're up to winning it, but Mitchell has played again nicely since his win, and Wise clearly is talented. Wallace clearly isn't scared of winning if he gets in place, but not sure he's Major quality just yet
Report kincsem April 6, 2019 4:27 PM BST
My biggest Masters mistake was following a recipe for US Masters pimento cheese sandwiches I found on the internet.
The instructions said it would make about half a dozen sandwiches.
I ate about twenty sandwiches and still had loads more filling left.
Report stephaniebot April 6, 2019 10:28 PM BST
That's half a dozen US sandwiches, not more normal sized UK ones!Laugh
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 9, 2019 9:31 PM BST
11 DEBUTANTS
Matt Wallace
Eddie Pepperell
Lucas Bjerregaard
Keith Mitchell
Aaron Wise
Kevin Tway
Justin Harding
Andrew Landry
Adam Long
Shugo Imahira
Michael Kim
6 AMATEURS
Viktor Hovland
Takumi Kanaya
Jovan Rebula
Alvaro Ortiz
Kevin OConnell
Devon Bling

Keith Mitchell, Justin Harding & Adam Long are GOOD ENOUGH to break the mould imvho Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 9, 2019 9:34 PM BST
...and possible FRL's
Report sewter lives again April 9, 2019 10:11 PM BST
very interested to see how Viktor Hovland performs at this level
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 9, 2019 11:41 PM BST
HOVLAND 7/4 Top Amateur...... or 25's Top Debutant (against Mitchell 13/2, + others)
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 5:59 PM BST
Keith Mitchell back to level thank god

HARDING -2 (one back from CONNERS)

YIPEEEEEEEEE what a start
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 6:49 PM BST
Catch Me ifyoucan • April 4, 2019 12:00 AM BST
+ Black Japan's Shugo Imahira 1000/1 & South African Justin HARDING on at 600/1 here, and in great form 64,2,WIN,mc,mc,4,11,8,51 last 9 events

Roll on 2019 - that Stat will be broken 40 YEARS LATER.

I'll SAY IT AGAIN (if I may/as I can) Keith Mitchell, Justin Harding & Adam Long are GOOD ENOUGH to break the mould imvho Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 9:27 PM BST
Catch Me ifyoucan • April 9, 2019 9:34 PM BST
...and possible FRL's
Wink
Got DJ on side too
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 9:29 PM BST
Harding FRL
160 €10
170 €93
180 €181
190 €58
200 €126
210 €64
220 €6
450 €1
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 11, 2019 9:59 PM BST
GET IT TO -4 DJ Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2019 7:01 PM BST
MITCHELL Back in the game after Eagle/Birdie on 7 & 8th Wink
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2019 7:05 PM BST
AHRDING playing boring golf with 8 straight pars - need a few to drop on the back nine
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2019 7:05 PM BST
*HARDING
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com