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Quail Hollow musings

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Replies: 855
By:
ericthecat
When: 01 May 12 12:27
Its one for the favourites for me, you have to be a good player on this course.

Rory small win
Tiger, Mahan and Bradley all good wins
Then another 6 jackpot wins waiting part filled
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 01 May 12 13:22
So let me get this straight:


RICKIE FOWLER BACKABLE AT 50
KYLE STANLEY BACKABLE AT 140

Can someone tell me if there is something wrong with my screen? I assume this is not right
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 14:27
Just a strange disparity on researching for this week Westwood on Euro Tour 105th in driving accuracy this year with a shocking 59% fairways hit but US Tour 12th with 69%. Going a year further back on Euro Tour 61st with 64%. Every week I watch him he seems to drive the ball well and the commentators ram it down our throat what a great driver he is Silly

So why has he struggled here before - driving, out of form or what?  Lee Westwood: - / - / MC / 61 / - / - / 38 / -  from 04- 11 Seems to usually give it a miss Cool
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 14:33

May 1, 2012 -- 1:22PM, Aussie Driver wrote:


So let me get this straight:RICKIE FOWLER BACKABLE AT 50KYLE STANLEY BACKABLE AT 140Can someone tell me if there is something wrong with my screen? I assume this is not right


Not sure what point you are making Aussie if its that both prices are too high or more realistically Stanley is far too high relative to Fowler.

I'd only comment is Stanleys good form was in Jan/Feb and he's been fairly shocking since March; Fowler has a good scoring record here and is fresh in people's memories from last weeks good finish

By:
maggot
When: 01 May 12 14:35
Don't read too much into stats. You can be an inch off the fairway, which means that you've missed it. Not very often that Westwood sticks it in the muck from off the tee. Still one of the best drivers of the ball out there. It's the other end of the hole that he has issues.
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 01 May 12 14:43
Bexley my comment meant there is way too much between the two of them

Stanley has not been near as good in the last 6 weeks but I don't take much notice of the missed cut at Augusta where he was a first timer (who have very poor records generally). You only have to go back a few weeks to find form Fowler has not generated for  12 months. I don't understand the variance in prices at all
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 14:44

May 1, 2012 -- 2:35PM, maggot wrote:


Don't read too much into stats. You can be an inch off the fairway, which means that you've missed it. Not very often that Westwood sticks it in the muck from off the tee. Still one of the best drivers of the ball out there. It's the other end of the hole that he has issues.


Fair enough Maggot I understand your point but as I'm new to these tournaments I am using them as a reference point as to whats required to win. Lucas Glover I'm assuming was a huge price last year and what stat is by far his best ranking - driving accuracy
So am I wrong in having mainly selected accurate drivers in form ie Mahan , Johnson and some of my outsiders like Knost?

By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 14:45
I thought thats what you meant Aussie, Fowler has been pretty shocking this year. Last week and his course form meant I put a few quid on at 60's Blush
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 01 May 12 14:52
Rickie is my biggest red at this point Bexley, so I hope you find your profit elsewhere Wink
By:
maggot
When: 01 May 12 14:54
I don't think that you're wrong at all bexley. Good picks.

My point was that you highlighted that Westwood's driving stats were poor this year. Have a look at his G.I.R. stat, which tells you that he doesn't miss the fairway by much. G.I.R. I would imagine that he is world no 1, but the putter, and chipping lets him down.
By:
maggot
When: 01 May 12 15:46
Had a sneaky punt on Will Claxton, at a big price. Also small E/W with the books. This guy can play, and although Quail Hollow is unchartered territory, I'm hoping that the course will suit.
By:
miss anomaly
When: 01 May 12 16:29
Aussie Fowler has a legion of fans that are always convinced this will be his week. No doubt they'll eventually be right, but they're keeping his odds down for the moment.

It's happened in the past with the likes of Rory, J-Day and Anthony Kim, all of whom eventually won. It still happens with blokes like ZJ, Hunter and Bubba, though they have won enough to justify it... maybe.

Some people are short for a while, then go back to 'normal' prices like Watney, Laird, Woodland and Villegas.

Then you have a bunch of guys who are perenially undervalued like Wagner, McNeill and Mark Wilson. Maybe Kyle Stanley will go into that group.
By:
muncha.
When: 01 May 12 16:48
Might be of interest - Westwood looking for a new caddie this weekend - Billy hurt his knee yesterday apparently.
By:
ericthecat
When: 01 May 12 20:20
A couple of jackpot bets filled

Karlsson 290s a massive price course should suit his scrambling putting game.

Laird 190-210s hits it long putts well shot 76 68 lasy year so can play the course
By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 20:26
lee john's agent should be on the phone to stevie williams asap Cool
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 20:35

May 1, 2012 -- 2:52PM, Aussie Driver wrote:


Rickie is my biggest red at this point Bexley, so I hope you find your profit elsewhere


Oh I'm pretty sure you will take my money with this one like you did with Hoffman a couple of weeks back Cool

Its why I can't just pick a few and expect to profit - I'm up to 19 selections for this week now which is around about my usual. I have staked Ricky to win me a couple of hundred only so he's well down my list for amount staked this week. My staking plan and being able to trade the golf in play is all part of the strategy. I have posted a few nice lays in running on here; Furyk and Every at short prices stand out, but I have far too many trades to flag up during the course of a tournament.

Good luck to everyone I'm quite excited by this weeks golf with most of the big names back Grin

By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 20:41
ever thought about laying 60 players instead

get yourself botted up Cool
By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 20:42
obviously not your 19 backs MischiefCool
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 20:49
Yes bubbagreen my starting position is all backs and I usually only lay selections I already have a decent green on - I don't have the bank to do otherwise tbh Cool

The lays I referred to were at iirc, 4.6 and 5.4 so I do have just about enough to lay these prices and make it worthwhile Laugh
By:
peatysandy
When: 01 May 12 20:56
Anyone know why Watney such a big price (75s)?

Is he carrying an injury or something which i haven't picked up on?
By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 20:57
wtf, don't have the bank Surprised

keep investing the winnings or get out of dodge Cool
By:
maggot
When: 01 May 12 21:04
I think that price is about right, peaty, judging by the way he's been playing this year. Poor, to say the least.
By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 21:06
just playing poor. no 1 on tour from 175 - 200 last year tells u wot sort of course he needs backing on wen the confidence comes back and he sacks butch Cool
By:
ericthecat
When: 01 May 12 21:06
yep watney just playing poorly
By:
peatysandy
When: 01 May 12 21:19
thanks everyone and good point re yardage - prob wants 100-150yrds shorter.

just caught the eye as won on 2 tough courses last year.
By:
bubbagreen
When: 01 May 12 21:30
watney also lost 20 yds off the tee Cool
By:
stonecold-
When: 01 May 12 23:46
have gone for the following

main two fancys/
bo van pelt 50
keegan bradley 42

also backed
jb holmes 120
geoff oglivy 130
robert garrigus 85
bill haas 50

gl all
By:
marychain1
When: 01 May 12 23:51
Bradley at 42

Also done:

Woodland @ 200
Karlsson @ 260
Mathis @ 480
Hunter Haas @ 628
Claxton @ 690
By:
Kjeldsen
When: 02 May 12 02:50
V strong field this wk obviously, harder to find the value. Four v the field for me, all ew:

Z Johnson 33/1
B Haas 40/1
S O'Hair 80/1
D Toms 100/1
 
Gl everyone HappyHappy

http://betsmarttrading.com/tipsters/in-the-hole
By:
CrowsEye
When: 02 May 12 10:34
Previous winners/placings have come off the back of some pretty poor form so don't like a few MC's put you off.

My outsider of the week is Andres Romero.

A few decent enough showings this year, some reasonable form at Quail Hollow and a previous winner on tour.

Romero can really fire hot on his day and current form isn't really the best guide with him, at around 350~ for the win, I'm happy to make a small investment here.
By:
ericthecat
When: 02 May 12 10:39
yes romero is in my team, blows very hot or very cold but has the talent to contend. My outsiders are;

Karlsson
Laird
Couch
Blanks
Romero
Toms
Wagner
Ames
English
By:
miss anomaly
When: 02 May 12 11:30
Just musing here, along with the thread title... Turnover this week is no higher than last week, despite the vastly superior field. In fact golf turnover in general has dropped off heaps in the last few weeks, with the Masters being the obvious exception.

Not sure what the cause is - it could be that without Eddie the markets are less active - or maybe something else. Whatever it is, I have to say it's surprising when the field is this good.
By:
AdamScotty
When: 02 May 12 11:35
Can't believe Watney's odds! Long off the tee great with short irons although not a great putter can expect him to bounce back from last week with plenty of G.I.R and hole a few more putts and will be more of 7.5 in play! Excited
By:
therhino
When: 02 May 12 11:57
75s is fairly tasty on Watney, had a meltdown at the Deutsche last year around the time is grandmother passed and has not recovered as yet, having a horrendous year by his standards so far so tread carefully. Are Stevie's wage demands that high that your moonlighting here in order to pay him Adam?
By:
AdamScotty
When: 02 May 12 12:25
na 15% cut partner he's currently taking subtle classes on how not to be racist.. Preping for the players expect to be around 40's after a 2nd round shocker in Korea ;)
By:
Quincy
When: 02 May 12 12:57
Not played so far, missed the price on Furyk.  Will play about with eric's team and might add Zach Johnson.  Good luck.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 02 May 12 13:13
Quincy.....you've been on here long enough to learn how to pick your own team...WinkWink
By:
maggot
When: 02 May 12 14:01
Laid off my Phil. and O'Hair backs, and added Crane @ 172, Kevin Chappell @ 520, Roberto Castro @ 1000, and George McNeill @ 340s and over.
By:
the muppet moans
When: 02 May 12 14:03
A top class field has assembled for the Wells Fargo Championship and the chances are that tour rookies will struggle on the tough course where I think course experience is vital. Main pick is Bill Haas who has now won four times in the past two years and for him this is a "home" game.His stats never seem to be particularly impressive but he just seems to be able to get the job done somehow! He has twice been 4th here so has some positive vibes - 0.6 ew 45/1.
Second man in is Kevin Na who like Jacquelin is also on the drift - maybe because he withdrew from the Texas Open with a supposed stiff back. I sort of have my doubts and don't think he really wanted to play that event after his horrendous 16 the year before and maybe he was pressurised into playing by sponsors - he certainly got a lot of airtime! Before that he was in top form and already has three top five finishes this year. Given that he has been 14th and 5th here the last two years there is certainly a lot of value in the place part 0.25 ew 66/1
It is unusual to be able to back a player at 200 on a Monday and lay 80 on a Tuesday but that's what I managed with Robert Garrigus as everyone and his dog has jumped on.The big hitter already has two runner up berths this year and has a solid bank of form at Quail Hollow including a top ten last year - 0.25 ew 100/1
Ken Duke - worth a bet in the top ten market - 0.5 11/1 as he already has three similar finishes this year from just twelve starts. He has also been 7th and 14th here before so is worth betting in that specific market - I don't think he has the nerve to actually win though.
On Betfair Rory Sabbatini has drifted to a very backable price at 180/190 as he has twice been 3rd here and can find his form from nowhere.
By:
miss anomaly
When: 02 May 12 14:10
The market has firmed up a lot in the past hour or two. 105.8% with around 30 guys at 1000-1 means there should be some value out there.
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