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therhino
30 Apr 12 11:14
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 10
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Should be a good one this week, great field and great golf course. Determining how many shots boy wonder is going to win by should be our first order of business folks. I say a 2 shot win.

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Replies: 855
By:
maggot
When: 30 Apr 12 12:28
Phil should be favourite, IMO. Outstanding record here.
By:
ericthecat
When: 30 Apr 12 12:52
I think the top 2 are good value both should trade lower. Both winners round here both great drivers now, you must keep the ball in play round here.

A great field should be good
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 13:21
Traded so far on Webb Simpson....couldn't believe my eyes when i laid him @28 last night and got matched.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 13:22

Apr 30, 2012 -- 6:28AM, maggot wrote:


Phil should be favourite, IMO. Outstanding record here.


Phil will never be favourite when Wood and McIlroy are playing.....

By:
dazler
When: 30 Apr 12 15:31
after win on dufner, i am not as confident this week am looking at a few players
tringale
byrd
webb
kyle reifers
what do you huys think??
By:
bexley
When: 30 Apr 12 15:41
Tried a back of Furyk at 38 this morning albeit reluctantly thinking its a crap price but his game is suited for here I'll stick a few quid on to cover my stakes elsewhere. Just seen he's been backed as low as 30. Can't see it myself - seems appalling value in this field.

Mahan my pick for the week
By:
bexley
When: 30 Apr 12 16:28
Make that matched at 28 now Shocked
By:
the muppet moans
When: 30 Apr 12 16:48
Was hoping to back him around 35 at the books - wish I had taken more of the 50 last night here DOH
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:05

Apr 30, 2012 -- 9:41AM, bexley wrote:


Tried a back of Furyk at 38 this morning albeit reluctantly thinking its a crap price but his game is suited for here I'll stick a few quid on to cover my stakes elsewhere. Just seen he's been backed as low as 30. Can't see it myself - seems appalling value in this field.Mahan my pick for the week


Was thinking of taking Furyk @40's but wasn't sure is the price was of any value as wasn't sure how the bookie might price him up.....after the price crashed, tried getting 30 but not being matched......now  a lump sum on @28 so i guess i've missed the boat....oh well.

Traded on McDowell....laid @36 backed @50....

Other orders are being matched....looks like this week becoming a good one

By:
Shaky
When: 30 Apr 12 17:05
Westwood and Tringale for me. Form is king.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:08
Dazler...Webb drifting....could go to 55....would want over 100 for Bryd and tringale.....Reifers - who's he?
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:09
Westwood - form????....putting form????
By:
Shaky
When: 30 Apr 12 17:17
Westwood would have run away with the Masters if his putting was a tiny bit better. Add to that his  recent glorious triumph in the mighty Indonesian Masters and i think you are looking at the winner this weekend.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:20
''recent glorious triumph in the mighty Indonesian Masters''.....LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh....he was playing against nobodies.....this week is a massive kettle of fish.

Surely you were being sarcasticWink
By:
maggot
When: 30 Apr 12 17:40
I would say that Westwood is in pretty good form, Ski. His finishes this year read 17, 12, 2, 4, 4, 29, 21, 3, 1.

Looks ok to me.

Odd that you've never heard of Kyle Reifers.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:45
Odd that you've never heard of Kyle Reifers.

Why is it odd?.....has he won anything......??.....is he English/Scottish/Welsh/N...??
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 17:49
I would say that Westwood is in pretty good form, Ski. His finishes this year read 17, 12, 2, 4, 4, 29, 21, 3, 1.

The last win doesn't count.....mickey mouse tournament....Westwood form  may be good enough for top ten market......price too low for winner market....have laid him @15 and expect it will drift to 20....personally i would want 30 to back to win....
By:
maggot
When: 30 Apr 12 17:53
Of course it counts. He beat Bernd Wiesberger in Indonesia. How did he get on last week ?????

Reifers has been a regular on tour this year.
By:
Shaky
When: 30 Apr 12 18:35
The Indonesian Masters comment was a tad tongue in cheek but it is still a win, he can only beat what's in front of him. I would much rather be on Lee than Tiger or Rory, who havent been seen since very lacklustre performances at Augusta. I'm pretty confident on geting a good run for my money at least.
By:
harter
When: 30 Apr 12 20:20
I'm on Westwood, Mickelson and Kyle Stanley for a longshot. Distace is crucial on this course.
By:
bristoldoug
When: 30 Apr 12 21:06
Calm down children lol.

Two people stand out for me. Horses for courses Lucas Glover who granted has no form whatsoever this year, but he won this last year on the back of 3 missed cuts and has a few other good finishes here.

And Bill Haas who also has some good finishes at Quail Hollow and has already won this year.

Will add a few more im sure.
By:
therhino
When: 30 Apr 12 21:34
Not the week to be taking long shots in my opinion. Look at the list of winners this year - whilst the winners circle has been a merry-go-round, majority of tournaments being won by quality players not roughies, and with a supreme field on a classic course I can't see that trend changing this week. Take a proven winner. My opening post re Rory may have been a little crass, but in all seriousness he is the form player on Earth (Masters aside) with a point to prove and returning to a venue he has serious mojo and which suits his game beautifully. Can't see past him.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 30 Apr 12 21:36
Well seeing as the 'Reifers Cat' has poked it's head out of the bag I may as well let it out completely.

A very good long shot shout from Dazler, He had a well decorated amateur career, has won on the N/W and as Maggot pointed out is quietly finding his feet on PGA tour with regular steady finishes.

Most importantly for this week he is a Wake Forest grad who lives in Charlotte & has played at QH a couple of time before.

He played decently again in New Orleans & at one stage he looked like finishing quite a bit higher. I was keeping my fingers crossed he wouldn't come through for top 10 as he was already on my radar for this week and it would have cut his price. I've backed him e/w for top 6 @300s rather than top 5 at 400s.

No disrespect Ski-Wiz but it's knowing & picking out the Kyle Reifers of this world that makes all the difference at this. After all like the PGA tour website tipsters we can all sit here each week and say Rory or Phil should go close and Bill Haas is a good long shot.

I'll quite often back a player with good local connections at a massive price. You only need one to come in placed every now & again and it makes it more than worth it's while.

I've  had some great results like this in the past [Sneds at 200s & Garrett Willis at 300s both in St Jude spring to mind]. Obviously it would be a miracle for Reifers to win but Bill Haas another charlotte man finished 4th here as an unknown in 06 & I wouldn't be surprised if Reifers snuck in to top 6 to make a 75-1 winner, which more than likely will be a bigger price than the outright winner.

I've also backed another Charlotte resident who has played well here before De Jonge at 125s e/w with Ladbrokes. Very big e/w price considering he had a great weekend at Zurich.

my others are Byrd who I just thought was too big at 90s with SJ for top 6 allowing for his course form and solid form this year, BVP, Zach and Sang Moon Bae who fits the profile of classy young guns who historically seem to perform well at this event. He's already proved he's not afraid to produce at the big events and again thought 110s was a big e/w price for top 6 with SJ.

Good luck everyone for the week!
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 22:09
''No disrespect Ski-Wiz but it's knowing & picking out the Kyle Reifers of this world that makes all the difference at this.''

It's ok....just that i've never heard of him.....


Now Mcdowell been taken off the market....withdrawn??.....if so.....hell damnation.
By:
HARRY22
When: 30 Apr 12 22:13
Its irrelevant who was in the field...you play the course not the opponents...he hits fairways and greens and it dont matter who is in the field.
By:
HARRY22
When: 30 Apr 12 22:14
Ski wiz he says he is a little under the weather and has a busy schedule
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 30 Apr 12 22:17
Fool.....had a nice trade on him....oh well...onwards and upwards
By:
bexley
When: 30 Apr 12 22:29
My team for the week in place already:

Rory McIlroy     9    
Phil Mickelson     14   
Hunter Mahan     22   
Zach Johnson     46    
Bill Haas     46    
BrendonDe Jonge 140    
David Toms     130    
Brian Davis     140    
John Huh     100   
Jason Bohn     728   
Colt Knost     350
By:
CaptL00t
When: 01 May 12 01:03
Last week I backed Dufner, Stricker and 3 longer shots pre tourney and was green on the whole field for the whole tournament pretty much until I did one of the stupidest things I have ever done (and that's saying something!)

I decided, after Dufner found water (well as good as) on 16 on Sunday to lump on Ernie at 1.35!! Wiping out all my profit and then some, was watching on sky go with 30 second delayed coverage and couldn't bail out before Ernies missed 6footer for what would have been victory. Needless to say I woke up in the morning (after not much sleep) cursing myself, just lumped on thinking Ernie would soon drop to 1.20 or lower and would be "free money" but how wrong & stupid I was. Wiped out all hard earned profit and a small loss on top for good measure!

Anyway, needless to say, Dufners 50 foot putt and the putt which just about crept in on the hole after made me feel sick! Won't be doing anything as stupid as that again! I bloody hope!

Don't know if I can bring myself to have a go again this week after that but will probably end up taking a look, feel free to call me the king of all mugs!Crazy
By:
The Prophet
When: 01 May 12 01:20
Nothing muggish about that mate, although maybe a bit reckless.

I would say that in 'normal' circumstances your bet would win 3 out of 4 times given
By:
The Prophet
When: 01 May 12 01:21
...given the same circumstances...therefoe i don't think it qualifies as a mug bet imho.
By:
The Prophet
When: 01 May 12 01:22
And really..oh so unlucky not to win in reality.
By:
Valleyparade
When: 01 May 12 04:02
Main bet is Mahan at 20's ew first 6 with SJ

Also backed Stenson, Kokrak, Bradley and English,

gl
By:
dazler
When: 01 May 12 05:11
ski wiz.... as sundogmonkey pointed out thats who reifers is, i have a good feeling he can go well and got on a top 10 at 36/1... as he pointeds out anyone can say mcilroy or mickelson will win which they may very well do im just putting a few long shots in there also had some on kokrak top 5,, have completed my team
2 metioned above
ken duke- again an outsider he has good recent form with at t7th last week and a few other top 10s recently
tringale- again great recent from with 4 top 10s in his last 4 tournaments on the pga tour
mickelson- only short odds player im doing this week great corse form my main reason
By:
CaptL00t
When: 01 May 12 08:52
Prophet, thanks mate, feel a bit less muggish now, really like the look of the field this week so will probably have some small bets after all for an interest and continue my trading strategy (to see if it works for me) but this time no lumping on odds on shots with 2 holes to go! I used to just back 5 or 6 folders and let the bets ride with no laying or cover shots and can't even count the number of times I've had 3 or more players in contention with some trading very low and not go on to win. I have come to the conclusion it suits me more to lay when the opportunities come and try and make a small profit each tourney or at least break even, rather than get just 2 or 3 winners in a whole year (all I got last year if I remember) and make a loss every week in between!
By:
bexley
When: 01 May 12 10:27

May 1, 2012 -- 2:52AM, CaptL00t wrote:


Prophet, thanks mate, feel a bit less muggish now, really like the look of the field this week so will probably have some small bets after all for an interest and continue my trading strategy (to see if it works for me) but this time no lumping on odds on shots with 2 holes to go! I used to just back 5 or 6 folders and let the bets ride with no laying or cover shots and can't even count the number of times I've had 3 or more players in contention with some trading very low and not go on to win. I have come to the conclusion it suits me more to lay when the opportunities come and try and make a small profit each tourney or at least break even, rather than get just 2 or 3 winners in a whole year (all I got last year if I remember) and make a loss every week in between!


I'm doing pretty much that too Capt - picking a team and trading to guarantee a small return. Some weeks a good return like with Bubba and Petterson some just a very small % like with Curtis and Dufner. What reassures me is that I can turn a profit even when I didn't have the player as part of my starting team (Curtis) or when I was actively against a player who traded very low (Els) Even if Els had won I still would have made a profit. I have only tried this approach since Shell Houston mind you but its working well so far.

Don't beat yourself up about your Els plunge - it wan't a bad idea in principle and we all get the urge to take advantage and increase profits. Just learn from your reaction and decide how you will play it in future Cool

By:
shinedog
When: 01 May 12 10:54
JB Holmes
Garrigus
Furyk
Na
Byrd

Glovers course form stood out and could be worth a punt but just not playing well atm.
By:
CaptL00t
When: 01 May 12 11:06
Cheers Bexley, good luck this week. My early thoughts so far, I'm liking Mickelson (although not sure if the odds are too short, need to check his tee time, will prob back if he's an early starter) at bigger odds- zach, haas, tringale & huh.

Course suits good putters and scramblers, and players who thrive on difficult courses where just breaking par is normally a good score. Weather should be good so maybe it will play a bit easier this year but someone was saying on here the rough is a lot thicker this year so maybe good drivers like Lee Westwood will do well this year! Who knows, should be a good one anyway, keeping stakes small here!
By:
maggot
When: 01 May 12 11:40
Been nibbling away at Billy Mayfair. I think that he may go well here at a big price.

Took 180s on Glover, and 305 on Ken Duke. Laid both off, but will go back in if their prices climb.

Backed Phil, and Sean O'Hair. I had penciled in Davis Love for this, but looks like he hasn't recovered from the rib injury.

Laid Furyk.

Waiting on a few more prices to, hopefully, move my way.
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