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Ski-Wiz
02 Apr 12 12:14
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Date Joined: 23 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 11,378 | Blogger: Ski-Wiz's blog
And so it begins. (drum roll)

From January to the end of March.....a mere warm up.....to see who is on form and vice versa.....the backing and laying.....many prayers......the first of the 4 Majors......grabbing all attention......liquidity on high.....clueless forumites from elsewhere asking silly questions......the ramping and de-ramping (not mePlain).

In the past 3 months.....many predictions.....prices going up and down.....over-reaction and vice versa.....gotta love it.

The Masters, of course and rightly so, is the first high peak of interest into golf of the year.

The market based on the last 3 months form has more or less settled down......but i must stress that form is temporary and class is permanent.....will a previous winner win again at The Master or will there be a new winner......my prediction is a new winner.

Reading an article about The Masters and the draw bias......it says that because golfers can hit the ball further...a draw is not so important as it was 10 years ago....so the likes of Kaymer, etc, have no excuses....mmmmm.

Will an Englishman win.....not likely....although i would love one to win however when it comes to money......gotta ignore the colours and designs of the flags......and focus on the colour green.

Top 6 favourites in current order.

T. Woods...5.8.....currently no value.....back to his near best with a recent win....a blip or permanent return?....he did do very well last year despite all the problems his was having....will be dangerous to lay but the price is too low to back....expecting a bigger price in-running....a worthy favourite.

R. McIlroy....7.2....currently no value.....The new 'messiah'....'second coming'....let's be realistic....no doubt a very good player.....always seems to be in with a shout.....but doesn't win enough......couldn't back him until the weather on the day is nice and sunny with no or little wind....a worthy 2nd favourite.

P. Mickleson....14......currently no value......capable of winning this again.....he and Woods loves this course.....renewal of their rivalry?.....has shown great form this season....will that form continue on Thursday?....expecting a better price in-running as 14 is too low for me.

L. Donald...17.5....currently no value.....Englishman....the very word puts me off backing the next 3.....can Luke win The Masters....i can't see it happening....odds way too low.

L. Westwood...22.....currently dreadful value......he will never win a Major.....how can his odds be lower than Mahan?, Bradley, Schwartzel, etc,....i'll tell you why...because he is an Englishman.....sentimental/emotional betting based on flags is the quickest way to the poorhouse.

J. Rose...34.....currently dreadful value....win a tournament and suddenly the English goes bonkers.....6th favourite and just below Mahan (36).....what a joke....seriously, 6th favourite....Jesus wept....should be around 50 to 60.

However i'm not going through all the golfers.....WinkWink

Share your opinions....facts...expertise.....keep it civil and humorous.

Trades done and matched so far.....in order of greens, highest first.

Rickie Fowler
Webb Simpson
Martin Kaymer
Charl Schwartzel
Hunter Mahan
Rory McIlroy    
Phil Mickelson    
Tiger Woods

Have a good week everyone.LoveLove

Moreover, this week can someone start a new thread for each day from Thursday to Sunday...it is traditional WinkWink

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Replies: 114
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 02 Apr 12 12:21
Matched so far on Betnosofair - £1,842,127
By:
padlock
When: 02 Apr 12 12:48
i like the flowers also Love
By:
Deplasterer
When: 02 Apr 12 14:19
Bets for the week:

Luke. Win
Phil. Win
Pod. Win, Place & Top 10
YE Yang. Win & Place.

Lay Tiger Woods.

Thats the lot, will do my usual 2/3 balls every day of course.

Good Luck
By:
xmoneyx
When: 02 Apr 12 14:50
whats the cut?

i ask it every year an forget Silly
By:
HeinzGuderian
When: 02 Apr 12 14:57
Over the years I've had some aysmal luck at The Masters.
Kenny Perry,(£30 @ 80/1) Two up with two to play...
Jim Furyk,(30 @ 33/1)Three putted from 15 feet and missed the playoff by One shot....
Big Ernie,(50 @ 20/1) sitting in the Clubhouse with a Four shot lead,then Mickelson hunted him down to birdie the last and win......
And last year,Wee Rory (£20 @ 28/1 and £20 @ 33/1)....watched the entire days play again the next morning,nursing a large hangover and an empty wallet.By the Wednesday I had gotten over it and had £75 @ 25/1 for the U.S. Open.
( had to end that on a happy note)

Anywhooo,The Masters 2012 is upon us,and as Eric has already said,it is shaping up to be an absolute classic.

R.McIlroy +£2K
A.Scott +£3,300
K.Bradley +£7,400
W.Simpson +£3K
S.Stricker +£1K
B.Haas +£7K
R.Fowler +£3
J.Wagner +£2,500
R.Palmer +£24K
K.Na +£7,500
J.M.Olazabal +£2K

Liability Betfair = -£500
Liability High St = -£500....ish.

I was going to add The Hunter,but not at 38's.

Does Tiger worry me ? Of course. With a good start he can lay every single Ante Post Book to waste.
Will he be covered to break even ? Possibly......
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 02 Apr 12 15:37
97 players are ''invited'' to the Masters.....could they have round it up to 100 ?

Anyway read this if you like..

http://www.majorschampionships.com/masters/2012/news/First-time-Masters-starters-face-steep-learning-curve-033012.cfm

Webb got 80 here at the age of 12....mmmmm
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 02 Apr 12 15:47
14 will be competing at Augusta National for the first time....does anyone have the full list?
By:
dazmacccccc
When: 02 Apr 12 15:47
what a bottler,missing from 4 feet on 18 to win!
By:
dazmacccccc
When: 02 Apr 12 15:48
just look at the betting for top rookie on oddschecker ski
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 02 Apr 12 15:54
gawd sake....he was only 12.....oddschecker - cool
By:
stonecold-
When: 02 Apr 12 15:59
14 first timers

Keegan Bradley
Webb Simpson   
Kyle Stanley
Sang-moon Bae
Robert Garrigus
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
Harrison Frazar
Scott Stallings
Brendan Steele
Kevin Chappell
Patrick Cantlay
Bryden Macpherson
Kelly Kraft
Randal Lewis
Corbin Mills
By:
1st time poster
When: 02 Apr 12 16:26
watney
dustybin
kooch
plus outsiders
c howell
j duffener
zach
By:
fivebagken
When: 02 Apr 12 19:32
Just thrown a couple of kweens heads each way on old man Freddie to be first round leader at 125-1. Won on the Champions Tour last week, loves the course and if memory serves he led after round one a couple of years back.

Nailed on IMO Cry
By:
sewter lives again
When: 02 Apr 12 19:35
i think Trevor Immelman is going to have a very good week and have played him in several markets
By:
rhharringtpn
When: 02 Apr 12 20:11
you can get even money that K. Bradley makes the top 20 - I think thats a great price he has been one of the most consistant players over the last 6months.
By:
kincsem
When: 03 Apr 12 00:57
My winnings from Keegan Bradley will be banked eagerly.
By:
Paddy Hair
When: 03 Apr 12 03:02
Heinz,+£3 on Fowler are you sure?
By:
marychain1
When: 03 Apr 12 08:26
some aggressive trading you've done on Fowler there HG Cool
By:
jermaine defonebox
When: 03 Apr 12 09:36
The arrogant f ukker cost me 4k winnings last year but it has to be mac he cany be outside first 5 so 7.4 seems ok to me   How tiger can be shorter Is amazing won't be in top 20
By:
HeinzGuderian
When: 03 Apr 12 09:47
Well I reckon if the lad Fowler is going to win,I might as well have a good pay out on him. I have no doubt whatsoever that he has the talent. It's just a matter of putting 4 good rounds together.
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 03 Apr 12 10:12
also taking the mac at 7.4
By:
Deplasterer
When: 03 Apr 12 10:18
+3K Paddy, Heinz you forgot your K!
By:
HeinzGuderian
When: 03 Apr 12 10:22
Ah,now I get ya. Well rest assured the payout will be more than £3 !! Blush
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 03 Apr 12 11:36
Hey don't mock it....£3 is better than what the banks pay-out in interest in 1 weekGrinGrinGrin
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 03 Apr 12 11:47
More Traded

Westwood
Casey
Stallings (now the biggest green....took 1000 LaughLaughLaugh)
By:
anfeild
When: 03 Apr 12 16:10
Done my bets:

All Each Way:
Bo Van Pelt
M Kucher
T Immelaman
A Quiros.
By:
lufc67
When: 03 Apr 12 18:18
I've backed Trevor Immelman for this @150s,won it in 2008 and three top 20s since his green jacket so Augusta obviously suits his game.The niggling wrist injury which has blighted his progress over the last three years re-appeared before The Transitions Tournament and he withdrew but showed no adverse affects at Bay Hill where he finished T11 and The Tavistock Cup where he finished T4.He twitted that his wrist held up well after Arnies tourney so hoping for a big tourney from Trevor.
Good Luck all.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 04 Apr 12 08:34
Garcia traded.

Matched so far on Betnotsofair - £3,840,628....wishing it was like this every week SadSadSad
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 04 Apr 12 08:35
One more day to put your team/bets on here......to avoid being accused of after-timingWink
By:
Puggy4
When: 04 Apr 12 08:44
Rors all the way, maybe -18 will be beaten, happy with my 16/1.
By:
stevie82
When: 04 Apr 12 09:15
Schwartzel, Bradley Win bets

Van Pelt, Karlsson, Zach Johnson Each Way
By:
bexley
When: 04 Apr 12 10:03
Rory, Phil, Rose, Scott, Bubba, Mahan, Van Pelt, Snedeker bigger bets (Rose I'm on at average 68; Hunter at 50; BVP 130 as early bets)
Jimenez, Peter Hanson, Ben Crane, David Toms, Ishikawa, Ryan Palmer, Johnson Wagner my outside selections for smaller stakes

Just over £2k staked on here and meaning to trade
By:
jayjay234
When: 04 Apr 12 11:30
DONALD 4200
MCDOWELL 7500
HARRINGTON 12000
STENSON    12000
WAGNER 15000
COUPLES 12000
SINGH 12000
HOWELL III 11000
Aarron BADDS   13000

FIELD -950

will add either snedeker or keega brad later.
By:
REDUNDANT PUNTER
When: 04 Apr 12 11:41
verplank
van pelt
furyk
mcdowell
buba watson
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 04 Apr 12 11:45
KT Kim 800 into 440 in 48 hours Tongue Out
By:
Return_Of_Dawsy
When: 04 Apr 12 11:51
It seems the early starters on Friday will have the better conditions.

20mph+ winds forecast on Friday afternoon.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 04 Apr 12 13:07
I think it should even it self out over the the first two days, the morning starters tommorrow should have it calm & fair while thunderstorms are due in the afternoon, allegedly.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 04 Apr 12 13:09
The late starters will see their prices drift a bit before they start....especially if Tiger Woods get -4 or more. +20mph, if true, too windy for Rory...
By:
stonecold-
When: 04 Apr 12 13:15
main 4 selections all ew
bo van pelt
angel cabrera
ryan palmer
ye yang

have backed quite a few more on here at big  for  very small stakes also done few different markets

to shoot
the lowest round ew 1/4 5 pp
yang 80s
cabrera 80s
quite like this bet bit of interest all days if make cut

first round leader
ye yang ew 100 1/4 5
robert garrigus 150 1/4 5

top debutant
robert garrigus 14s
scott stallings 33s

good luck too everyone
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