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Chosen®
27 Dec 09 04:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 May 09
| Topic/replies: 603 | Blogger: Chosen®'s blog
As ever there have been some very impressive results reported by contributors to this forum. In most cases the online persona behind those success stories atests to their authenticity.

Looking back over the 'How was your year' thread, it seems that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Some winners specialise 'in play', while others prefer to do their business before/between rounds; some rely on golfing knowledge to guide their business, others prefer playing strictly by the numbers; some concentrate on top five and two/three-ball markets while others never stray from the outright market. Still others seem to dabble in several areas, often supplementing income outside of golfing markets.

To what extent is success in golf betting attributed to being flexible as opposed to specialising? And is it possible to make profits from a 'form' oriented approach rather than a market-driven strategy?

It would be wrong to ask these questions of others without speaking of my own approaches, so here they are:

Laying in the win market Last year I often picked four or five players at the top end of the market that I had some reason to believe (rightly or wrongly) represented poor value. This was going ok until a certain MK gave me a double dose of layers' lament. Overall loss.

Backing early starters on the 'right' tee Subjective, I know, but I defined 'the right tee as the hole which began the easier side of the course if data/conditions/course changes indicated there was a clear difference. The idea was simply to back two or three players that I also believed had the game to win on any given week in the hope of retrieving my stake by the end of the round in question. On several weeks I got players free-running for a touch, but never hit a winner. Overall loss.

Laying in two/three ball markets Both types of market are three-runner events, which is why I favour laying and having two 'runners' working for me. My strategy would be, in a three ball for example, to choose an event that was essentially too close to call (in my humble opinion) and lay the jolly at anything less than, say, 2.7 . Alternatively, if I strongly favoured one player over another in a two ball and the market couldn't separate them, I'd lay the other. Overall profit.

On balance I would have to classify my strategy as a combination of 'form' and market-driven approaches. I would also classify it as insufficient to generate long term profits.
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Report mascherano December 27, 2009 11:42 AM GMT
Laying in the win Market could turn out very profitable but somebody last season did the exact same and layed the 2 winners pre tourny in consecutive weeks and after that he gave up. one big hit could wipe your profits out. be careful just because they are bad value doesn't mean they won't win.

gl
Report Gary Binosh December 27, 2009 1:39 PM GMT
similar situation to laying 0-0s in football, you could go 100 matches without getting caught out, seems easy, but if you hit two 0-0s in a row, you're fecked
Report a bitofinterest December 27, 2009 1:42 PM GMT
not as easy as people think
and i should know..
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