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the muppet moans
15 Dec 09 10:55
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Date Joined: 07 Nov 00
| Topic/replies: 5,132 | Blogger: the muppet moans's blog
Cutting down on bets but have one for this week

I watched last weeks Alfred Dunhill scores rather annoyed at a young South African who I wanted to fly under the radar and was rather alarmed when he entered the final round in 4th place. In a way I was rather grateful Jacques Blaauw faded on Sunday as his price has held up this week for the South African Open and he would have learnt a lot from the experience. Basically he is attached to the Pearl Valley course and it was the scene of one of his great amateur triumphs when he won the South African amateur strokeplay on the course last season. He has had a very solid first year as a pro in the minor South African events but I am sure he can mix it on the bigger stage - £50 ew 150/1 and £200 on Betfair at 160 average to trade.
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Report chris_rogers30 December 15, 2009 10:58 AM GMT
Think that's a very good bet mate. GL!
Report frames December 15, 2009 11:16 AM GMT
TMM moves markets ,a sea of blue developing on Oddschecker.
Report double trouble December 15, 2009 11:41 AM GMT
Bettingzone put him all also
Report lanson December 15, 2009 12:05 PM GMT
To be fair i think a number of people will have been waiting to bet this guy.Big price little damage done if he is overawed
Report MR JAKE December 15, 2009 1:30 PM GMT
Billys site have him at 50s now. It was would be a early xmas present on sunday if he wins .
Report the muppet moans December 15, 2009 2:10 PM GMT
Mr Jake - Billys actually opened at 50's which was a bit of a surprise!
Report No Category 1 December 15, 2009 2:25 PM GMT
last weeks final round tells a story
Report mascherano December 15, 2009 2:29 PM GMT
Canizares
Molinari
McGowan
Hutsby
Aiken

gl
Report No Category 1 December 15, 2009 2:41 PM GMT
Lowry
Rock
Zanotti
Murphy

Good Luck
Report andjayten December 15, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
McGowen and Strene for me
Report Shrew D December 15, 2009 3:04 PM GMT
Sterne
Kingston
Oosthuizen
Rock
Fichardt
Bourdy
Schwartzel

Bourdy and Kingston are my bigger bets.
Report fading December 15, 2009 3:19 PM GMT
tmm shhh.....I was hoping that Pearl Valley connection might remain a secret!
Report the muppet moans December 15, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
Unlikely Fading - club affiliations are pretty easy to spot - though "hidden" course form is harder to find
Report cammy December 15, 2009 3:39 PM GMT
backed a pile of rags.

haastrup, bekker, basson (both), vaughan, fourie, jeppesen, whitelaw, curlewis and quite a few besides.

I figure there must be value in a field with Schwartzel as 12/1 fav, not sure I have found it tho ;-)

I had vowed to keep it in my trousers until Hawaii, but then it aint all that easy at times!
Report golfnut December 15, 2009 3:44 PM GMT
Maybin....main pick
Hutsby
Kingston
Soren Hansen...the break might have freshend him up.
Report Baggers December 15, 2009 3:45 PM GMT
Tmm

As you know, I fancy your man as well and was able to mp up some value on teh sub markets, 110/1 1st round leader and 50/1 Top ROW which is effectively Top Saffer
Report Denman The Destroyer December 15, 2009 5:40 PM GMT
A couple of big priced possibles,

Ariel Canete
Anton Haig
Report THE SPINNER December 15, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
ive asked bf to complete the list Qualifiers today. I am going to finish my write up and post it later
spin
Report frames December 15, 2009 6:08 PM GMT
What time later please ?
Report THE SPINNER December 15, 2009 6:11 PM GMT
why you out tonight frames ? i can email you if you cant wait chap ?? just be patient ;)
Report Shrew D December 15, 2009 7:29 PM GMT
Shrew D 15 Dec 16:04
Sterne
Kingston
Oosthuizen
Rock
Fichardt
Bourdy
Schwartzel

Bourdy and Kingston are my bigger bets.

-----------

Actually, scrap Sterne and Schwartzel. They're too short. I'll just have the other 5.
Report Midnight Special December 15, 2009 9:43 PM GMT
This event has gone to a "home" player for several years running. I think this might continue. Both Aiken and Oosthuizen can bounce back from missed cuts last week and contend. The European who might buck the trend is Damien McGrane. Both Oosthuizen and McGrane carded 64's in the 2nd round last year.

Good Luck.
Report Aussie Driver December 15, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
For me:

Mcgowen
S Hansen
Bourdy
Kingston
Lowry
Illonen
P Martin

Mcgowen my big bet. Cant believe his price this guy stepped up to the next level last season and is taking on guys who are yet to step up the same way ........... including this under the odds fav Schwartzel
Report zoltangera December 15, 2009 10:53 PM GMT
Anders Hansen and Robert Rock for me
Report THE SPINNER December 16, 2009 2:28 AM GMT
Unlike the Dunhill Champs last Week I'm struggling to find Too many mistakes.

I know very little about this Course , but what I do know, is the Weather does and will Play a major Factor this week.

You have only got to look at the past Two Years 2008 Sterne Won a Playoff against the Talented Maybin both scoring -14. 2007 -4 was the Final Wining Total the Cut being +10
Now onto my thoughts this Week.

All the Talk so far has been for "home boy" JAMES BLAAUW . I watched this Guy very closely last week, and although very talented and very capable, I don't see him as Winning material just, Yet at this Level.

Very much like one of my main three Pre Start Tips, last Week Lorenzo - Vera he got himself into position on Day 3 and 4 only to collapse under Pressure simple as that. Although he was a Cracking Trade.

Having said that I have jumped on the "bandwagon" @ 125 small just in case he's close after 54 Holes to Trade.

My Selections From The Start.

1. SAM HUTSBY

Although Not Under the Radar This Lad will become a" Cash Machine" . I think he will WIN "Rookie" of the Year At a "cantor"

He's the most Talented youngster I've seen since Rory. ! 14th as an Invite in Singapore . 8th Castello Masters, with a closing 71 showing superb control and Patience for his "tender" experience.

I would like to see how he reacts to Full Tour "life, but in this Field I dare not Leave him out.

2. JAMES KINGSTON.

I think he's finally learned how to Win , and I like his chances this Week. Very good at controlling his Ball Flight and a very good Wind Player. WON here in 07 in tough conditions , so if the Wind Blows expect him to go close.


3. CHARLIE SCHWARTZEL
I'm going to buck the Trend here and keep him on my side this Week. I thought he showed good "metal" last Sunday and with this Course being Long, and the Company this Week I think 12 ish is very fair considering he will be easy to Trade in this Field.


ALSO SMALL SIDE BETS

JARMO SANDELIN @ 330
GARY CLARK @ 350 Shot a 60 Pre Qualifying.
ALEX CANIZARES @ 120 I'm a "gluten for punishment !!

I would have Bet Maybin but too short for me

This tournament Watch carefully for the Weather changing, you should have plenty of opportunity In Running . Sterne was T75 after Round 1 last year and WON

GL SPIN
Report THE SPINNER December 16, 2009 2:39 AM GMT
sorry Jacques NOT James school boy error ! :^0
Report DOUBLE THE TROUBLE December 16, 2009 4:35 AM GMT
Ive fallen upon Aiken(42)
Garrido(65)
Hutsby(65)
Khan(70)
Oosthuizen(32)
Best of luck everyone!
Report Marooned December 16, 2009 12:42 PM GMT
It might surprise you to hear that i'm sticking with Joost this week
Report TheNephilim December 16, 2009 12:47 PM GMT
Finch
Kingston
Fichardt
Otto
Hoey

should give you a run for ya money at decent odds
Report fading December 16, 2009 1:18 PM GMT
nice write up there from Spinner, good work mate.

Right....apologies but I'm being lazy this week and not giving reasons, cos I'm knackered.

Cabrera-Bello
Garrido
Ramsay
Blaauw
Finch
Canizares

Good luck all!
Report Luciano Becchio December 16, 2009 2:29 PM GMT
Spinner, i respect what you say, but when u say "U WATCHED BLAAUW VERY CLOSELY LAST WEEK", i tend to ignore you, as i watch about all the coverage on SS and he must have been shown 3 times at the most, and the only time in round 4 was his second shot to the last
Report hacker December 16, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
Good write up Spinner i spent 2 years living in Capetown and you are spot on about the weather...The south Easter can pump this time of the year,making scoring very difficult.I played this track a few times and you have to be a good striker to post a number.
If i was backing i`d go for Kingston...good in the wind and has now learnt to win...
Report double trouble December 16, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
Have to say, I thought the same about Hutsby. I'd be surprised if anyone watches more golf than me and I cant possibly make a judgement on him yet, i've only seen him play a few shots when he led a few montsh ago. And while I'm at it Schwartzel...Showed metal? When exactly?

Sorry, Im bored...
Report THE SPINNER December 16, 2009 3:35 PM GMT
Double . he has struggled in most later stages for the last 2 years , yes "metal" might be a bit strong but thats only my opinion ..i like his chances.

Luc im sure you watch plenty as most do. I don't know too much about him your right, but ive seen many players like him, he just needs more experience, i like his swing hes a good prospect simple as that, as to watching him unless Your Woods you don't get much coverage. But ive seen enough

anyway gl this week
Report double trouble December 16, 2009 3:49 PM GMT
Personally I think these promissing youngsters are, as a general rule of thumb, just far too short most of the time. the likes of Willett, Wood and McIlroy are great prospects but youd have done your conkers following them week on week.

And I thought Schwartzel was, yet again dreadful in contention. As soon as he got there he choked, several times...3 off the tee on 12 or 13, cant remember which, bogey on 17 when he got to within 1 (and was very lucky to stay in play) and then he nearly drove OOB on the last! i know Im picky but you cant describe that as anywhere near close to someone showing metal.

Anyway, good luck with them.
Report the muppet moans December 16, 2009 3:58 PM GMT
The one thing I will say about Jacques last week is that he is a very good putter but struggled on the Sunday with 34 putts but his driving and iron play was pretty much the same
Report mascherano December 16, 2009 4:14 PM GMT
final bets ;

McGowan
Molinari
Aiken
Canizares
Ramsey
Mordt
Van Aswegen

Had a Saver on Schwartzel for a top 5 and Maybin in his 3 ball. gl.


cant believe the price you can have on Maybin in his 3 ball.

gl guys
Report Super Hans December 16, 2009 4:55 PM GMT
Sterne seems popular / unpopular. Traded over 2.5 times more than anyone else and not even fav.
Report towcester judge December 17, 2009 1:03 AM GMT
Thought Simon Khan has a great shout, must come here with a very strong mental attitude after creaming them in the tour school, he should be nice and relaxed and happy.
Has won at Celtic Manor so should be able to cope with any elements.
Comes here ,at a good time, strong bet for me.
Report golfnut December 17, 2009 1:18 AM GMT
SPINNER.....Your post above where you said...
I would have Bet Maybin but too short for me......do you mean in your main bets or as an outsider?...if you fancy somebody for whatever reason why not just back him?...i have taken a bit of stick by stating in various posts that i think his 22s at the moment are generous!...
With for sure on Hutsby....but its a big Maybe Maybin for me....
Report THE SPINNER December 17, 2009 2:35 AM GMT
golfnut

maybin has a great chance this week , but @ 22 i see for example James Kingston @ 40, even Greg Bourdy @ 32 in a st8 matchbet i see nothing in them, thats why i think hes short priced.

If he had Won on the Euro Tour Before then yes ... Its only my opinion ... he will probably "romp home now !!

Price means everything and although there are not many mistakes this week i see better value elsewhere.

gl :)
Report THE SPINNER December 17, 2009 2:40 AM GMT
Towester Judge. Simon Khan was my biggest straight Winner on the Year at the Q School.

I tipped him in my Q School Writeup, and made him Favourite although he was ignored by the Books

At 50/1

yes @ 70 seems fair but this is a much stronger field so the price is about right.

Gl :)
Report fading December 20, 2009 1:41 PM GMT
get in there! Needed that win just before xmas, well done masch also as I see you had Richie on your final shortlist
Report THE SPINNER December 20, 2009 1:46 PM GMT
wd guys excellent result what price pre tourny ? Thats a pick superb
Report fading December 20, 2009 1:50 PM GMT
Cheers spinner, I got 120s on the lad, which looked big to me at the time which is a large reason I went for him. Happy days!
Report THE SPINNER December 20, 2009 1:53 PM GMT
yeah n1 m8 superb pick didnt ever consider him..... silly me covered on shiv so got out of jail.

I want to email you with regards to next season ... ill talk to BF i dont know if they can pass emails on. and masch if possible

cya soon spin
Report fading December 20, 2009 2:10 PM GMT
my e-mail is sambaman(at)gmail(dot)com - feel free to get in touch
Report THE SPINNER December 20, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
ok will do spin
Report donny osmond December 20, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
good stuff fading, nice time of the year to pick one out
Report double trouble December 20, 2009 3:17 PM GMT
w/d fading, nice one
Report mascherano December 20, 2009 3:42 PM GMT
boom.

nice one Ramsay. :D
Report No Category 1 December 20, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
Well Played Fading. Have a good Christmas Everyone.
Report THE SPINNER December 20, 2009 4:26 PM GMT
masch i would like to email you before the new season

speak soon spin
Report hacker December 20, 2009 9:02 PM GMT
Welldone Fading,Masch...had a feeling one of the outsiders would come through on Sunday..i picked the wrong dog.!
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