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Take My Money, I Don't Want It
16 Nov 09 18:41
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Date Joined: 02 May 08
| Topic/replies: 5,042 | Blogger: Take My Money, I Don't Want It's blog
I will be running a weekly tipping service, starting with 100pts. This is to help myself control my levels of staking.
5pts is the maximum bet.
I will choose no more than 5 bets from each tournament.
Prices will be from various bookies.

This weeks picks;

Dubai World Championship Outright Market
2.5pts Each Way, Alvaro Quiros @ 50/1
2.5pts Each Way, Alexander Noren @ 66/1
2.5pts Each Way, Sergio Garica @ 20/1

Dubai World Championship Top 10 Market
5pts Rory Mcilroy @ 10/11
5pts Lee Westwood @ 5/4

Dunlop Phoenix Win Market
2.5pts Each Way, Edoardo Molinari @ 45/1
2.5pts Each Way, Shane Lowry @ 125/1
2.5pts Each Way, Yuta Ikeda @ 16/1

New Balance = 60pts
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Report Super Hans November 24, 2009 3:15 PM GMT
I`ll have your tips. I just hope they`re better than your maths.
Report chris_rogers30 November 24, 2009 3:17 PM GMT
Agree broadly with that Dec but i think @ £10 a point it should be ok
Report Eddie the eagle November 24, 2009 3:27 PM GMT
Hans , I think he meant that if he got 6.5 with the bookies , he would need 6.8 here to get the same price after commission.
Report Super Hans November 24, 2009 3:39 PM GMT
I see, it was badly worded.

Anyway just offering a bit of advice.

I`ll leave him to it then.
Report always lay off November 24, 2009 5:30 PM GMT
hey just read this thread and firstly gotta say well done tmmidwi..very good to pick 45/1 winner and 125/1 e/way....but id like to give u a little advice as ur staking reads like a kid playing with monopoly money...u started with 100pts, and used 40 pre tourney which is madness,just pure fantasy,if it was meant to b a serious calculated attempt to make a profit..then confusingly u say u will only have 5 bets in each tourney,yet u have another 3 in running in dubai, so then its 8!!...
so in total,u staked 55% of ur initial investment in the first week...so although u was lucky this week..it wouldve took just 2 bad weeks to go broke.....now i know u seem to b trying to learn as u go, but seems like you're getting too carried away with the "play money" part of this...as now you've won, u say each point is £100 which meant u stake £5500 in the first week of trying out a system!!.. the intelligent way would obviously be to start by investing a small amount of your capital while you are learning and adapt your staking from there after you gain more experience.. as believe me ,it wont b as straight forward and easy as this week has seemed to you...you will def make some mistakes that you will need to learn from , but with your weekly % of total funds, you have absolutely no margin for error, which is plain suicide...hope u dont think im being condescendingl,as i know a lot make fun of you on here, as im honestly just trying to give u some feedback that might guide u a little in the right direction if u r considering using real money....but if its only ever gonna b in fantasy,disregard my message and have fun mate!!
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 24, 2009 6:22 PM GMT
10 pounds per point not 100!!!
And thank you for your help. Now I have a decent size bank after my first good week I will stick to 5pts max on any bet and maximum 50pts per week.
Report always lay off November 24, 2009 6:44 PM GMT
lol ok mustve misread it...10 is def more realistic....
50 pts a week tho,even out of your total now, is still prob too much % of funds ..id say more like 10%.... the best way for you to reason is out at the moment would be...last week you staked 55pts and made a 192.5 pts profit, which is exactly 3 1/2 times return on investment, which means u need 1 week like that in every 4 1/2,just to break even...which im sure youll agree,you wont consistantly be able to do....after all, as good as last weeks picks were, you must admit it,you had more than the normal luck,considering they had no course form to back them.up..
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 24, 2009 6:54 PM GMT
luck? I don't believe in such a thing!

So my max total bet per week should be 10% of my total bank?
Report always lay off November 24, 2009 7:06 PM GMT
lol..yep def always need luck...and if,like last week, you're doing players without course form you need a little more!!..yeah 10% would be prudent..at least for a good while, until you've experienced some ups and downs,learnt from the mistakes you're bound to make.... you have to realise that you wont pick a 45/1 every week.. more like only every 3-6 mths!!..(if you're lucky!!)..so if u stake 50pts now,6 blank weeks and your points are gone.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 7:06 AM GMT
TMMIDWI , luck plays a huge part in golf betting short term. I think you need at least a year and probably more before you can rule out the luck part.

I'm not sure if these bets of yours are real or just imaginary , but I will give the following advice based on them being real.
From what I know of you I will also assume that you want to make golf betting your main income.
If your bank now is close to 3 k , you will have to ignore most of the good advices others have been giving you and keep on taking a little to much risk , at least until you have tripled your current bank , but you will also have to be prepared to blow your entire bank.
That said , your stakes the first week was to much no matter what way you look at it.
One thing that most gamblers imo do wrong is staking a % of what their current bank is. If you do that all the time it would lead to losing more when you go on a bad run and when your luck turns , you are staking less than you were when you were losing.
If I were you I would now say that my betting bank is 3 k and keep on with that thought in mind until you reach 6 k or blow the bank.
When you reach the target of 6 k you define your bank as 6 k until you reach 10 k or blow the bank.
When you have reached 10 k you could be a little more conservative with your betting.

How much you are staking each week will depend very much on what odds you are betting at. If you are betting win only as it looks like you are doing this week I would say that 10 % ( 300 ) of your bank should be max , but if you are betting the lower priced golfers each way and/or evens shot in the place market like last week , I see nothing wrong in using up to 20 % ( 600 ) of your bank.
The most important thing going forward if you have a losing week or two or three or ... would be to keep on staking as if your bank still is 3 k , but you will also have to accept the fact that you may blow your entire bank.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 7:07 AM GMT
TMMIDWI , luck plays a huge part in golf betting short term. I think you need at least a year and probably more before you can rule out the luck part.

I'm not sure if these bets of yours are real or just imaginary , but I will give the following advice based on them being real.
From what I know of you I will also assume that you want to make golf betting your main income.
If your bank now is close to 3 k , you will have to ignore most of the good advices others have been giving you and keep on taking a little to much risk , at least until you have tripled your current bank , but you will also have to be prepared to blow your entire bank.
That said , your stakes the first week was to much no matter what way you look at it.
One thing that most gamblers imo do wrong is staking a % of what their current bank is. If you do that all the time it would lead to losing more when you go on a bad run and when your luck turns , you are staking less than you were when you were losing.
If I were you I would now say that my betting bank is 3 k and keep on with that thought in mind until you reach 6 k or blow the bank.
When you reach the target of 6 k you define your bank as 6 k until you reach 10 k or blow the bank.
When you have reached 10 k you could be a little more conservative with your betting.

How much you are staking each week will depend very much on what odds you are betting at. If you are betting win only as it looks like you are doing this week I would say that 10 % ( 300 ) of your bank should be max , but if you are betting the lower priced golfers each way and/or evens shot in the place market like last week , I see nothing wrong in using up to 20 % ( 600 ) of your bank.
The most important thing going forward if you have a losing week or two or three or ... would be to keep on staking as if your bank still is 3 k , but you will also have to accept the fact that you may blow your entire bank.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 7:08 AM GMT
Sorry about the double post , but I got some invalid data message.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 7:13 AM GMT
One thing I forgot to mention was :
Open up an account on Betfair now and put 50 % of your bank here. If you are serious about your golf betting you must always place your bets where you get the best odds and I think that would be at least 50 % of times on here.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 7:15 AM GMT
I'll blame it on the early hours that I said you should open an account here. Of course you already have one , just put half your bank in there.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 25, 2009 10:39 AM GMT
Thanks Eddie some interesting stuff there. I have only placed 3 bets this week totaling 15pts, 5% of my bank. Should I double my bets then to get to the 10%?
Report CUPRA November 25, 2009 1:22 PM GMT
I just give up.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 1:23 PM GMT
No you don't need to do that , it was 10 % maximum , but if you want to put more on , the correct thing would be to do it on Ireland and maybe USA due to their lower odds.
Report sick of food November 25, 2009 1:39 PM GMT
Why do you need to put more on the lower odds choice? If, say you really fancy Italy at 19 but think Ireland will do ok too why not put more on Italy your number one pick? Are you not then trying to reflect your perceived value in how you bet (yes that old chestnut)? In that case the only reason I can see for putting more on at the lower odds choice is if you want to win a fixed amount on the event.
Report No Category 1 November 25, 2009 1:57 PM GMT
TMMIDWI

Any tips for the Q School Final mate?, tempted to back Archer after his -11 at stage 2.
Report Eddie the eagle November 25, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
sick of food , he doesn't need to put it on the lower priced ones , but it would be the sensible thing to do. He is trying to build his bank up and is already facing a nearly 50 % bank increase if his high priced selection wins.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 25, 2009 3:15 PM GMT
Casio World Open

2.5pts each way Jeppe Huldahl @ 150/1
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 25, 2009 3:16 PM GMT
New Balance = 272.05
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 25, 2009 3:21 PM GMT
272.05

European Q School

2.5 pts each way Francois Calmels @ 150/1
2.5 pts each way Roope Kakko @ 125/1
2.5 pts each way Lee Slattery @ 66/1
2.5 pts each way Oliver Fisher @ 33/1
2.5 pts each way Benn Barham @ 55/1

New Balance = 247.05
Report THE SPINNER November 25, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
dont forget the inform player Simon Khan, finished 127 have a look at last 5 tournies i took 40/1 decent knocker Simon...
Report No Category 1 November 25, 2009 5:07 PM GMT
50/1 Khan
Report wazzabet.com November 26, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
good start for ireland well done tmm, tourny looks over already!
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 26, 2009 4:18 PM GMT
Thanks Wazza
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It November 30, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
Chevron
5pts Lee Westwood 13/2

Nedbank
5pts Angel Cabrera 10/1

5pts double Westwood and Cabrera 81.5/1

New Balance 232.05
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 4, 2009 5:09 PM GMT
Westwood and Cabrera Double is still on!!!
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 4, 2009 6:43 PM GMT
232.05

Nedbank
Another 5pts Cabrera @ 9/2
25pts Stenson 11/4

New Balance 202.05
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 11:14 AM GMT
10pts Nick Watney @ 80/1
25pts Stenson @ 5/1
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 11:14 AM GMT
New Balance = 167.05
Report frames December 5, 2009 11:19 AM GMT
What`s that smell ?
Report CUPRA December 5, 2009 11:31 AM GMT
I thought I was the only reason I virtually gave up being on here
Report Dec1409 December 5, 2009 11:38 AM GMT
If we sign up for your 'service' do we get to pick our own imaginary prices as well?
Report Super Hans December 5, 2009 11:46 AM GMT
TMMIDWI Good to see you took my advice about getting the best price being vital to success.
Report frames December 5, 2009 11:50 AM GMT
The silence is deafening , someone must be trying a Pringle on.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 12:42 PM GMT
Don't understand what your all going on about. Watney was 80/1 with VC at the time of posting and stenson was 5/1 at the time of posting..
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 12:45 PM GMT
Correct me if I'm wrong but Watney was 80/1 with VC was he not? If he wasn't I will void that bet not a problem.
Report CUPRA December 5, 2009 12:46 PM GMT
Even Thatcher found it hard when fame hit
Report frames December 5, 2009 12:49 PM GMT
Check your shoes DML that smells getting worse.
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 12:53 PM GMT
so you are not actually backing any of these selections TMM?
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 12:53 PM GMT
just providing a service one would guess
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 2:08 PM GMT
Yes hence the title Tipping Service. I have no job and no money hence why I can't back them. But I am trying to see if I can increase my initial fantasy bank of 100 in the long term.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 2:08 PM GMT
Nick Watney bet void

new balance 177.05
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
I would keep the bet on the list just change the odds
Report Super Hans December 5, 2009 2:19 PM GMT
Take My Money, I Don't Want It 16 Nov 19:41
I will be running a weekly tipping service, starting with 100pts. This is to help myself control my levels of staking.

A good way to control your staking by not betting at all.
Report Eddie the eagle December 5, 2009 2:23 PM GMT
Wasn't it £ 10 a point too ?
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 2:29 PM GMT
If you dont have a job why not charge for this service TMM, no point giving a superior edge away for free

I am sure as the forum tipping champ you would get some interest
Report Super Hans December 5, 2009 2:40 PM GMT
I`ll pay if you can get 80/1 on a 25`s shot.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
Yes 10 pound a point. This is a trial run for a year to see if I can make profit from this. If after the year I have more than 500 points then I will be doing it with real money next year. Sensible I think....

And ffs vc had him at 80/1 and when you clicked on it the usual slip came up as if to place the bet at 80/1 no errors like you would normal get or no "bet expired etc."
As I wouldn't have been able to get on at 80/1 I would not have placed the bet.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 3:05 PM GMT
Lay Goosen for entire bank 177.05 @ 2.12

If Goosen doesn't win new balance = 327.25
If Goosen wins new balance= 0
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 3:07 PM GMT
:^0
Report Utd Fan December 5, 2009 3:08 PM GMT
1st line on the thread goes out the window

I will be running a weekly tipping service, starting with 100pts. This is to help myself control my levels of staking.
5pts is the maximum bet.
Report Eddie the eagle December 5, 2009 3:11 PM GMT
TMMIDWI , you better call that system programmer and have him install a reload button before the system goes commercial.
Report frames December 5, 2009 3:11 PM GMT
What was the little bloke called in Fantasy Island ? TMM you are making a complete fool of yourself , not hard I know.
Report drumm December 5, 2009 3:15 PM GMT
leave it out lads, the guy aint bright, not his fault
Report Eddie the eagle December 5, 2009 3:17 PM GMT
And you better tell him not to put it to close to the panic button , you know the one you just hit !
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 3:24 PM GMT
No risk in laying Goose, free money..
Report drumm December 5, 2009 3:30 PM GMT
what price would you back him at TMM
Report Eddie the eagle December 5, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
Can you please explain why you panic when you still would be 77 % up even if all your bets were to fail this week ?
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 5, 2009 4:29 PM GMT
I would back goose at 6/1 or bigger, but honestly I don't think he can handle the pressure of winning anymore, the only way he will win this tommorow is if he is 4 or 5 ahead with 9 to play, any less and he will choke.

No panic eddie, Goose won't win.
Report Killah33. December 5, 2009 9:00 PM GMT
the fact that ur betting 5 unit bets then suddenly a 177 unit bet is really sad and proves the mindset of the poor punters who come on here who become desperate

i agree with you that goose is a lay but my god - stake properly
Report Shrew D December 5, 2009 9:04 PM GMT
TMMIDWI, it was all going so well!

Oh dear. :(
Report frames December 5, 2009 9:10 PM GMT
VC did the dirty on him ,btw I`ve backed Goose for a mythical million.
Report wazzabet.com December 6, 2009 12:06 PM GMT
stenson looking good now tmm
Report Killah33. December 6, 2009 12:21 PM GMT
even if goosen loses (which he probably will now) - risking your entire bank on one bet is stupid
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 12:40 PM GMT
The goose is cooked. He never looked like winning, a sure bet to lay.
Report Utd Fan December 6, 2009 12:58 PM GMT
would love him to go birdie, birdie finish
Report Utd Fan December 6, 2009 2:30 PM GMT
well done TMM, top tipping
Report ZAPPER December 6, 2009 2:49 PM GMT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRrFWp4DUho
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
Well done Retief

New Balance = 327.25
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
Chevron

25pts Harrington @ 4/1
20pts Westwood @ 4/1
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
New Balance = 282.25
Report marychain1 December 6, 2009 3:03 PM GMT
what happened to 5 pts per bet?

You are starting to lose credibility by drastically upping the stakes when the whole point of the thread (which was quite good) was to control the amounts you were staking
Report Eddie the eagle December 6, 2009 3:08 PM GMT
marychain1 06 Dec 17:03


what happened to 5 pts per bet?

You are starting to lose credibility by drastically upping the stakes when the whole point of the thread (which was quite good) was to control the amounts you were staking


A serious conteneder for the understatement of the year award !
Report double trouble December 6, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
What credibility?
Report ronsk December 6, 2009 4:02 PM GMT
Why give this loser the time of day please?
Report donny osmond December 6, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
5 past 5 :)
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 4:28 PM GMT
ronsk 06 Dec 17:02
Why give this loser the time of day please?

My balance of 200% profit says otherwise pal!

Thank you donny :)
Report ronsk December 6, 2009 4:32 PM GMT
Apologies.... Until such time as your bank totally disappears (really shouldn't take all that long) please substitute "LOSER" for "T0SSER"....

Kind regards!
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 4:34 PM GMT
Regards to you to Ronsk :)
Report mascherano December 6, 2009 4:38 PM GMT
tmmidwi you may as well stop this thread. you have gone completely against your rules stated.

you dont deserve to win even though you are.
Report Utd Fan December 6, 2009 4:38 PM GMT
TMM,I dont know why you are continuing to keep this thread going

its a different ball game when you are using hard cash.

I would wait until you have some money and then start another thread, after all it doesnt matter how much money this is up as you have lost the whole goal of the thread
Report frames December 6, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
Are there people daft enough to believe this Walter Mitty when he starts another thread ?




No need to answer.
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 6, 2009 5:20 PM GMT
Who is Walter Mitty?
Report niknak December 6, 2009 5:27 PM GMT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Mitty

Only matter of time before the balance is zero anyways.
Report No Chatname Specified December 6, 2009 6:32 PM GMT
Take My Money, I Don't Want It 06 Dec 17:28
ronsk 06 Dec 17:02
Why give this loser the time of day please?

My balance of 200% profit says otherwise pal

200% of nothing is still nothing Idiot
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 7, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
Alfred Dunhill Championship

2.5pts each way Edoardo Molinari @ 25/1
2.5pts each way Oskar Henningsson @ 80/1
2.5pts each way Shane Lowry @ 100/1
2.5pts each way Marco Ruiz @ 200/1
2.5pts each way Ariel Canete @ 300/1
2.5pts each way Jamie Elson @ 500/1
2.5pts each way Nic Henning @ 500/1

The Shark Shootout

5pts Poulter/Fisher @ 11/2
5pts Perry/Holmes @ 10/1

Australian PGA Championship

2.5pts each way Michael Sim @ 18/1
2.5pts each way John Senden @ 28/1
2.5pts each way John Daly @ 125/1
2.5pts each way Jamie Lovemark @ 100/1 NAP

New Balance = 217.25
Report CUPRA December 7, 2009 5:27 PM GMT
I feel that ronsk and frames don't show quite the disrespect that this felle deserves.
Report SwindonBoy December 7, 2009 6:09 PM GMT
seems to be alot of bitter people, he clearly knows his golf and doing great so far
Report always lay off December 7, 2009 7:23 PM GMT
marychain1 06 Dec 17:03


what happened to 5 pts per bet?

You are starting to lose credibility by drastically upping the stakes when the whole point of the thread (which was quite good) was to control the amounts you were staking

A serious conteneder for the understatement of the year award !

lol..eddie..my thoughts exactly..i actually wasted a little of my time with a few notes trying to help him, then when i saw how mad his chasing had got while using play money after just a few weeks,when he was actually in front..i knew all hope was lost and kicked myself for wasting my time!!
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 7, 2009 9:33 PM GMT
Back to the 5pts rule, I'm sorry...
Thank you for helping ALOFF I have listened to you.
:)
Report niknak December 8, 2009 7:38 AM GMT
'A fool and his money are soon parted'
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 10, 2009 6:18 PM GMT
Some good starts from some of the lads in the albert dunhill

Edoardo Molinari -6
Shane Lowry -5
Ariel Canete -4
Jamie Elson -1
Nic Henning -3
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 11, 2009 4:25 PM GMT
Canete and Moli going nicely
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 13, 2009 1:44 PM GMT
2.5pts each way Michael Sim @ 18/1 = 6.875 pts (tied 5th with 1 other)
2.5pts each way John Senden @ 28/1 = 20pts (tied 2nd)


New Balance = 244.125
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 15, 2009 5:46 PM GMT
244.125

South African Open Championship

2.5 pts each way Edoardo Molinari @ 25/1
2.5 pts each way Sam Hutsby @ 55/1
2.5 pts each way Jacques Blaauw @ 125/1
2.5 pts each way Oskar Henningsson @ 150/1
2.5 pts each way Oliver Fisher @ 200/1
2.5 pts each way Ariel Canete @ 200/1
2.5 pts each way Anton Haig @ 300/1
2.5 pts each way Sam Little @ 300/1
2.5 pts each way Andrew Butterfield @ 400/1

New Balance = 199.125
Report mascherano December 19, 2009 10:22 PM GMT
gl
Report Take My Money, I Don't Want It December 20, 2009 2:07 PM GMT
2.5pts each way Moli @ 25/1 = 18.125

New Balance = 217.25
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