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09 Jan 23 09:26
Date Joined: 29 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: Luke121's blog
Hello everyone,
I'd like to ask you for help.
I am trading on Betfair for almost 13 years. I've learned a lot of things but in long term I am loosing money all the time.
My biggest troubles are with money management.
I can turn 30€ in 500€ (and 500€ in30€) in couple days but then I lose them all.
I lost too much money and I want to be successful.
I am not asking about your strategy, keep you secret safe :)
I just don't know how many matches trade per day and how to chose them.
Should I bet only on favorites, should I bet on the outcome where most money are?
How many trades per day?
Which money management should I use?
Ive learned that you don't need to read long match analysis to be successful but something I am doing wrong.
I know it's very individual but I need to change something and get some motivation from you.
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Report CLYDEBANK29 January 9, 2023 10:08 AM GMT
There's no polite way of putting it if you really want help.  Your questions are so naive that you are either fishing (a silly post seeking attention) or a million miles away from turning an expected profit.

There's nothing wrong in sucking at gambling.  The vast majority of people do.  If you aren't doing it for enjoyment stop, because you just aren't going to make an expected profit long term asking questions like that.  Find motivation in something else.

If you went back 10-20 years a thread like this would have loads of replies.  Now this might be the only one.  Draw your own conclusions.
Report Luke121 January 9, 2023 10:22 AM GMT
I think somewhere people should begin. I know that there are many people doing it properly.
I am not seeking attention. I've just realized (too late) that I am doing big mistakes. And I still have hope that someone could help me with that.
People are created to help each other.
Maybe I didn't ask right questions, but I believe there's some way to do it right for sure.
I lost a lot and I want to be successful.
Sometimes I am so close to do it well but at the same time I am so far away...
(Sorry for my English)
Report CLYDEBANK29 January 9, 2023 11:53 AM GMT
If you like the sport, and maybe even if you don't, my general advice for you would be to look at MMA and only bet on MMA.  Research the sport and become a master of one sport, rather than a journeyman of many.  The reason I'm saying MMA is it's because it's a sport with growing turnover and younger punters.  They are less experienced and not as good or as wise as older punters.  They also might be a little drunk or tired given the time of day. 

Be aware if betting in running that the fights can turn on a sixpence and there will be people with faster pictures who could take advantage of you and be fully aware of the betting rules on the sport.
Report Luke121 January 9, 2023 12:45 PM GMT
I see. But I think that you don't need to know details about the match or sport you are betting on, and still you can win. I try to analyze odds movements or bett only on favorites. But single human can't process all the data. So I am looking for some historical data which could tell me if it's a good idea.
I mean for example in Tennis if 70% of favorites win and you will bet on odd at least 1.5 you should make some profit.

Very simply I am more mathematical bettor than sports bettor
Report CLYDEBANK29 January 9, 2023 1:35 PM GMT
Your way isn't working and it isn't going to work for you.  No matter what historical data you have.  It could work for a very few people , but it won't for you.  You have to be very mathematical, very technical and your brain has to work in a certain way.  I'd say you fail on all three counts.  The biggest winners will have all three skills and will be knowledgeable about the sports.  They'll likely be running syndicates too.  If you aren't motivated to gain extensive knowledge in a single sport, as a possible road to profit, then I see no hope.
Report Mr Ed January 10, 2023 5:35 PM GMT
I think you are being a bit naive Luke.
Just saying 70% of favourites win does not help.
That fact may be true, but then if you look deeper it will be 90% of the favourites that at 1.10 win , but only 50% of the favourites that are 1.99 win.
You need to have some sort of edge...even a tiny edge to make the difference between winning and losing.
Report longbridge January 10, 2023 10:38 PM GMT
"I mean for example in Tennis if 70% of favorites win and you will bet on odd at least 1.5 you should make some profit."

Not a chance.  There are enough people with enough computing power looking at historic data that any such anomalies in BF prices went a very long while ago.
Report KOBEFROMDOWNTOWN January 17, 2023 2:52 AM GMT
Luke.. plenty opportunities are readily available from a trading point of view!  It’s just not 2010-2016  where you could trade so many markets such as cycling, F1, tennis, Eurovision…I could go on, it was free money from trading this stuff.  Use the forum as an information tool on things you may not know but don’t take advice from anyone on here on how to make money, punters making real money don’t spend their hours posting on here.  Find your own way,  stick to using mathematical type bets/strategies, good luck!
Report Luke121 January 18, 2023 10:19 AM GMT
Thank you guys for your replies.
I am looking for somebody successful on Betfair who do it for living.

I don't want to ask for a secret. Maybe I need some good advice because I know how to do but I can't be successful in long term.

I don't know honestly where I'm doing mistakes.
Maybe your routine, what is most important, what I should aware.

I am so disappointed about it. It affects my life and I think I am in som viscous circle
Report CLYDEBANK29 January 18, 2023 11:46 AM GMT
What keeps us stuck?

1. You’re focused on the time and energy you’ve already invested.

Its fancy name is the sunk cost fallacy, and it’s universal. All you can think of is the time you’ve already put into it.  Staying even longer won’t help you cope with the time you now consider wasted or lost. But people do it anyway, all the time. This fallacy has you focused on time already spent—which is by definition irretrievable—and keeps you from imagining where you might find yourself in the future.

2. Your eyes are trained on positive cues.

Being overly optimistic, combined with intermittent reinforcement. 

3. Being thwarted makes the heart grow fonder.

Remember the Greek myth about Tantalus, from which our word “tantalizing” derives? The gods punished him by having him stand under a tree, its fruit just out of reach, and close to flowing waters which receded every time he tried to quench his thirst. Well, it turns out that when we realize we’re likely to fail at a relationship or job or other endeavor, we begin to see that goal as even more valuable than it was initially.

4. Fear of missing out

Easier said than done but what things should you do?

Motivate yourself.  Quitting isn’t an end in and of itself; it’s a pathway to a new destination. Disengaging from a goal is a process that ends with engaging with a new one. Work on strengthening your motivation to get to that new place even as you consider letting go of the old one.
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