General Betting

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G Hall
10 Aug 20 13:32
Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 9,258 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
If the percentage rate of people who make gambing pay, as Punters, is less than 5%, and I'm probably being liberal with that figure.

The next question is why if so many people lose why do they keep doing it, surely we are not all addicts ExcitedLaugh
Pause Switch to Standard View Why do so many people lose at gambling
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Report politicspunter August 10, 2020 2:18 PM BST
Most folks lose at gambling because bookmakers (as in the roulette wheel) have a built in percentage edge that is consistent over time. This is particularly true in horse racing, football etc. It is less true in niche betting environments where the bookmaker can find it more difficult to accurately price events.
Report G Hall August 10, 2020 2:41 PM BST
Everybody who bets, does have winning bets, or else they would never bet long term. The problem being as indicated in the post above, and other factors, only a few win long term. The figure of 5% I mentioned previously is only a guess, but I would imagine I'm not too far off the mark.
Report betting_masta August 10, 2020 9:33 PM BST
most people want a lot back for very little when in reality the 1% who make money get a little back from a lot
Report betting_masta August 10, 2020 9:34 PM BST
again most people don't even understand odds, they don't realise they're being ripped off. happily betting on 1.83 markets on both sides for example and even putting those bets into multiples to compound their negative value
Report betting_masta August 10, 2020 9:37 PM BST
it doesn't even matter if you're a decent selector of bets, the overround will kill most people, those few percent add up long term
Report ericster August 11, 2020 1:53 PM BST

Aug 10, 2020 -- 10:37PM, betting_masta wrote:

it doesn't even matter if you're a decent selector of bets, the overround will kill most people, those few percent add up long term

masta, you got me right there. Haven't got a clue what you're talking about. My view is if you can find something that works, for me the search and the dream goes on, where most people fail I feel, myself included is, how many times has this been said? you just have to stay with it and if that means going a day or two without a bet, and that can be the difference between winning and losing I reckon.

As for the slots, the wheel and the pretty lights, and the cards, I mean "higher or lower " for chris' sakes, I really don't get that. I get sent free spins occasionally but I wouldn't know how, best not go there imo.

Report betting_masta August 12, 2020 4:08 PM BST
I was referring to people who bet with bookmakers, obviously, in terms of over-round. If you bet on a market where they are offering odds of 1.83 both sides, which you often get on football markets with bookmakers, then how are you ever expecting to make money? It's simple mathematics that you will lose.

However, On the exchange, the book is nearly 100% so most people should be able to break even at the very least, albeit taking into account the 2% commission
why so many losers then?

if you can answer that then you can become a very rich man
Report ericster August 12, 2020 4:35 PM BST

it's no great mystery imo. There are some very clever, studious, well informed losers out there.
I think there are losers who really ought to be doing a lot better and for them it's that hoary old chestnut self-discipline.

Having said that, there are so many people just doing it for fun. Losing for fun? You better believe it.
Report timbuctooth August 15, 2020 4:13 AM BST
Rarely mentioned, but one of the biggest obstacles to winning is the propensity to bet on mainstream sports, primarily football and the horses. The problem is that too much is known about such sports, there`s no end of form-driven data, most people have access to about 99% of that data, meaning markets end up being far too efficient to make winning easy, certainly over the longer term. Sure, we can all hit the odd winner, but we`re in this game for the long run, meaning long term strategies are needed.
So, where to start? Well, anywhere you like, so long as the markets aren`t driven by analysis of decades of form, where people can`t look back at the last 100 games between `x` and `y`, have no comparables with which to form an efficient market. For me, it`s been `Specials` (X Factor, Strictly, Big Brother etc), where the winner is decided by the public, not on measurable things like who scored the most goals or who ran fastest. The markets, are formed purely on the opinions of people like you and me, nothing concrete, nothing factual, just opinions. In XF, for example, many voters will prefer the `belter`, others the Elvis impersonator, others the rapper; how do you judge that? How does the market know what to do? That`s the beauty, the secret, as It doesn`t know what to do, it`s clueless, so ends up doing everything! There`s always huge volatility, and most series will have a number of odds-on pokes, often with them all gubbed on the line by the rag. And all of the market madness is down to that one thing, there being no `form` of any sort to compare with.
No surprise, perhaps, that Political markets, also with winners being chosen by the public, fit most of the criteria, too.

Bullet point? Avoid mainstream, long term winning becomes so much more achievable playing uninformed and volatile markets.
You can take advantage of such volatility with just the one or two plays, but far better to maximise the opportunities inefficient markets throw up by trading them

Most of us came through the `traditional` route, backing with bookies, mug punters, forever on the lookout for the jackpot, and those habits tend to be ingrained, despite a lifetime of losing! Maybe it`s time for a change of tactics? Maybe start doing what the winners do? And who are these `winners`? Well, the bookies! When I became an Indie, nearly 30 years ago, a friend said to me; `you`re a bookie now, no longer a mug punter, so no more of chasing the jackpot, that`s not how bookies win, they `chip away` at it` Probably the one bit of advice I remember more frequently than any other.
Likewise, why not copy the bookies` entire business model which has worked so well, by laying rather than backing? This involves a different `mindset` but, as we all know far too well already, picking losers is so much easier than picking winners!
Report timbuctooth August 15, 2020 4:18 AM BST
Sorry, left out a bit, should read;

`... `you`re a bookie now, no longer a mug punter, so no more of chasing the jackpot, that`s not how bookies or winning punters win, they `chip away` at it` Probably the one bit of advice I remember more frequently than any other, both as an indie in real life, and as a Specials trader on here .
Report roadrunner46 August 17, 2020 10:20 AM BST
a long term strategy is learning about your chosen specialization, gambling is no different to learning a trade, studying to be a doctor or lawyer, what they
have in common is it takes years to accomplish the necessary knowledge and skills to be successful , the only difference is with gambling you dont get a qualification certificate and you have to rely on yourself to learn, there are no lectures or teachers, if you have the talent you will search for your own path to succeed, the dedication it takes is not compatible with most peoples lives. this is one of the reasons so few people make it to the top of the mountain, there are a myriad of other reasons as well, and last but not least talent.
Report starship August 19, 2020 1:37 PM BST
very simple
u price up a selection and if is over that price u bet it
if it is under u dont bet it
if u r right about selection and price u will make a profit
if u r wrong u will lose
Report roadrunner46 August 19, 2020 5:37 PM BST
how do price up a selection if its never run beforeLaugh on monday there was a 100/1 debut winner, presume you  would  of never considered a horse
in that price bracket that has never run before, agree the price is an important factor, as barney curley would say planning - patience - price
Report Shanelee1966 August 19, 2020 6:29 PM BST
Discipline has been mine and hundreds of others on heres downfall
Report G Hall August 19, 2020 7:17 PM BST
When buying property the estate agent will tell you the three most important things are

The three most important things when punting must surely be
Report politicspunter August 19, 2020 7:22 PM BST
There are massive differences to punting on horses/dogs/football and punting on a niche market where your knowledge is likely superior to the bookie pricing it.
Report roadrunner46 August 19, 2020 7:42 PM BST
there are people  who exploit the bookies pricing on horse races, they actually take advantage of the bookies lack of knowledge, the massive  difference  between  niche markets and horse races and football to a lesser extent, is the ability to win bigger payouts for smaller amounts of money, and no matter how
good you are and superior  your  knowledge is, luck is still a major factor, with so many  variables  at play, with the niche  markets no luck involved just
superior  knowledge  or lack of.
Report Latalomne August 20, 2020 9:00 AM BST

Aug 19, 2020 -- 6:37PM, roadrunner46 wrote:

how do price up a selection if its never run before on monday there was a 100/1 debut winner, presume you

Report Latalomne August 20, 2020 9:01 AM BST
The biggest weapon in the punter's armoury is the ability to pick and choose your battles.  Nobody has to get involved with races where form is limited.
Report ericster August 20, 2020 9:43 AM BST

Aug 20, 2020 -- 10:01AM, Latalomne wrote:

The biggest weapon in the punter's armoury is the ability to pick and choose your battles.

Report ericster August 20, 2020 9:44 AM BST
Don't know what happened there but I'll go along with lomne on that.
Report betting_masta August 23, 2020 5:21 PM BST
bookies are so quick to close or restrict your accounts when betting on horse racing it's not even possible to exploit it for any length of time. bet365 banned me after a week and i do think the bookmakers are in cahoots with each other about who is a mug punter and who is not. i can get 50p on now with bet365 and i wasn't even betting big big stakes
Report Dr Crippen September 1, 2020 11:55 AM BST
The biggest weapon in the punter's armoury is the ability to pick and choose your battles.

True ericster, but you've still got to know your stuff.
Report G Hall September 4, 2020 2:10 PM BST
Good to see you back Doc
Report Dr Crippen September 5, 2020 4:01 PM BST
Thanks G.
Report Shanelee1966 September 6, 2020 5:45 PM BST
When buying property the estate agent will tell you the three most important things are

The three most important things when punting must surely be

Without it you`re doomed profit wise.

I`ve made £800+ on the horses in under a week. Blown the lot and more on football in a day.
Report ZEALOT September 9, 2020 8:40 PM BST
Most people lose because they are too greedy and 90% of them have no idea what a good return would be . Say , for example you backed 500 horses over a 12 month period and your total outlay was 10k ( £20 per bet ) how many Joe Punters would be happy with a profit of £800 ???  thats a very good 8% return . I would say less than 1% . If you ask a betting shop punter this question most will say anything up to "Doubling It . "

Most have no clue of what it takes and how much work you have to put in . First step should be breaking even and then with a little bit of tweaking you will be well on your way . Patience is the key word imo .
Report G Hall September 11, 2020 10:52 AM BST
Excellent post Zealot, I would go as far as to say a "Masterclass".
Report freddiewilliams September 11, 2020 2:13 PM BST
Research bet properly and stake properly. 5% way to high hall.
Report NORTH BERWICK September 15, 2020 9:03 PM BST
I think a fair  percentage of losers are not interested if they win or not long term . Its the action theyre after . They have no control or self discipline as they are addicted to gambling.
Report cpfc4me September 16, 2020 3:54 AM BST
ZEALOT has got it right.

In binary betting, a blind squirrel will be able to win 50% of the time and you only need to convert 1.02% of those losers into winners if you are on Betfair's Basic Plan, or 2.46% at Pinnacle's Dime Line (1.952) 

Patience to wait for value opportunities is key, as is the discipline to stake appropriately when such opportunities come along.
Report G Hall September 16, 2020 10:14 AM BST
So is the key to successful betting, in the mathematics rather than picking winners.
Report timbuctooth September 16, 2020 12:42 PM BST

There are six numbers on a die, mathematically making it 5/1 you pick the right number, but a bookie would offer 9/2 and he gets rich. But if you can just get 5/1 about your winners, you stop losing; get 11/2, and you`re the one getting rich. And banned by your bookie!

So, while `in the mathematics` makes it sound complicated, the actual maths necessary for winning is extremely simple.
Report DIE LINKE September 16, 2020 5:49 PM BST

by Felicia Campbell, The Futurist, 1976.

Dr. Campbell is an associate professor in the English Department at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. She is now completing a book on the psychology of gambling and is also chairing the Governor's Commission on the Status of People.

In our highly technical society where machine-tooled perfection is an ideal, the gambler has acquired a bad press. He is frequently viewed as an erratic, unstable, and irresponsible sort, driven by unknown forces to take foolish and unnecessary chances. The results of this risk-taking may be financially and psychologically dangerous to the gambler, as well as to those whose lives interact with his.

But gambling is a fundamental human activity, which can sere a valuable function for both the individual and society. In the future, the positive aspects of gambling may be increasingly recognized; society may revise its view of the gambler and learn to use the gambling experience as effective therapy. Through gambling, many individuals can become more actively involved in life. Others can obtain needed psychological release from tension and drudgery.

Why has gambling earned the disapproval of society? A partial answer lies in our values. For years we have been taught that happiness lies in riding the consumer merry-go-round, hoping to catch the brass ring of contentment. Accepted goals were to be realistic and attainable-- a spouse, a home in the suburbs, and 2.2 children. So ran the middle class ideal, the "American Dream."

Persons who did not fit this pattern were viewed as either not trying hard enough or somehow "mentally ill." Those who found adjustment too difficult came to rely on pills to speed them up or slow them down to fit the pace required for success.

We seemed to be redesigning the human being to fit the societal model without knowing what compromises the fully-functioning individual. In many ways, we were designing under a false set of assumptions.

An underpinning of our value system was resistance to change. If the system perpetuated itself, we thought, survival would be assured. Even in planning for the future, we too often looked for ways to augment the status quo or to simply extend desirable features of our present situation into the future.

The behavior of the gambler is not at all congruent with these established patterns. His goals seem unrealistic; he "bucks the odds" and finds excitement in doing so. He (or she) is frequently willing to forsake secure monetary practices for a chance at the big take.

The gambler steps beyond established bounds and creates a new frame of reference. He welcomes and often thrives on change. In the toss of the dice, he may move from rags to riches, in a way antithetical to traditional methods of saving money, making sound investments, or benefiting from occupational advancement.

Gambling Is Ubiquitous

The gambler is considered to be a breed apart, yet in a sense, w are all gamblers. The man who plays the stock market or speculates on real estate values is not ostracized by society, yet he shares a communal bond with the casino gambler and the daily lottery player.

We all enjoy the thrill of risk-taking. We decide not to carry an umbrella, "betting" that it will not rain, and feel vindicated when it doesn't. We exceed the speed limit, "taking the chance" that a patrolman will not be lurking in wait on the highway. We overextend ourselves financially in the expectation that a raise will be forthcoming.

Women who have been warned against having children still become pregnant, hoping they will deliver safely. People with a family history of cancer continue to smoke-- taking the chance that it will not affect their health. Divorce is rampant, yet young couples still marry, "betting" that marriage will work out for them.

We all take chances; we all gamble to some extent. Yet it is the person who bets in the formal sense who is criticized. His actions are termed masochistic, sexually sublimative, and aberrant-- harsh descriptions for behavior that has been ubiquitous in human history and that has often served people well.

The gambling impulse is part of what has been called "the adventurer within us"-- that part of ourselves which lusts for change, the wooing of all the unknown, chance, danger, all that is new. The gambling impulse sends us both to the gaming tables and to the moon, to the laboratory and to the numbers man. It is part of what makes us human.

Positive Aspects of Gambling

Contrary to popular belief, I have found gambling to be largely beneficial to the gambler, increasing rather than decreasing his efficiency. Gambling stimulates, offers hope, and allows decision-making. In many cases, it provides the gambler with a "peak experience," that godlike feeling that occurs when all of one's physical and emotional senses are "go."

Gambling offers an altered state of consciousness-- perhaps at the opposite end of the scale from the state produced by meditation, because of the intense excitement generated. Certainly it provides benefits in enabling people to face daily life.

Geralmo Cardano, sixteenth-century universal genius, physician, and odds-maker, prescribed gambling for melancholy and cares that one would otherwise be unable to endure, noting that "play may be beneficial in times of grief and that the law permits it to the sick and those in prison and condemned to death."

This practice is most humane and was common not only in Renaissance Italy, but also, until a few years ago, in Nevada prisons. One ex-inmate told me that the altered state of consciousness produced by gambling was the only thing that kept him sane in the midst of brutality, vermin, and bad food. In essence, he said, the only times he felt human during those years occurred during those moments when he lost himself in the play, making his own decisions and, for the moment, transcending his circumstances. It seems reasonable then to suggest that allowing gambling as a recreation in prison might prove valuable in the future. It would show our acceptance of prisoners as human beings, and perhaps raise the likelihood of their rehabilitation into society.

Benefits for the Elderly

In studying the positive effects of gambling, I have spent some of my most profitable hours with the old persons who throng the Nevada casinos. These people are a gallant breed who, far from wasting their meager resources gambling, are making a choice for life itself. I call them "elderly lifeseekers."

My method of research is participant observation; that is, I mingle with the crowd, becoming part of it while getting to know the people and the scene.

The people whom I meet gamble as a part of their lifestyle and a good deal of their socialization comes from the casinos.

Elise, a delightful woman approximately 70 years old, came to Las Vegas from Kansas three years ago over the protests of her daughters. A widow, Elise has a small pension and loves slot machines and the casino atmosphere.

She budgets her money carefully and told me that she moved to Las Vegas to avoid being a built-in baby sitter and housekeeper. She enjoys the freedom of Las Vegas where she can wear what she pleases and play the slot machines.

"I never lose much and I like to play," she said. "Whenever the money drops, I feel real good. I won something and I ain't won a lot of things in my life."

These victories are not small ones to Elise. She has her independence, her self-respect, and a passionate interest in gambling.

Elise is more fortunate than Vonnie, who until a few months ago, had never gambled. Vonnie's income has been devastated by inflation; she wanders the supermarkets almost in a state of terror. I have seen pet food in her cart, although I am reasonably certain that she has no pet.

On impulse, she put a nickel in a slot machine and got five back. Putting three of those back, she won a $5 jackpot. A gambler was born.

She gambles no more than a dollar or two a week. So far, she says, she is ahead. The point, however, is not that she is ahead, for she could as easily be behind, but that her feeling of helplessness is somewhat alleviated. When she bets, she takes a risk which involves her in her own destiny.

While her economic circumstances may not be altered, her self-esteem has increased and her interest in day-to-day living is much greater.

Another reason for gambling is offered by a retired colleague of mine who says that when she is really lonely, she likes to play the slot machines because they seem friendly and acknowledge her existence.

She says that she is aware the feeling is foolish, but that the blinking lights and ringing bells on the payoffs seem to say, "I like you." Silly or not, there are times when it helps to have the approval of even a machine.

I should note here that a number of oldsters have told me they gain a great deal of hope from lottery-type contest such as those run by various magazines to increase circulation. Whether this is gambling is debatable, but the effect is the same: momentary hope.

The old men, who frequent the downtown casinos are not, as tourists too often assume, persons who have destroyed themselves gambling. They are retired servicemen, railroad men, factory workers, and others.

They seem to favor craps and twenty-one which can be played for nominal sums in many of the downtown Las Vegas and Henderson casinos.

Playing cautiously, they often manage to add to their holdings. They have favorite casinos which they frequent, usually those which have friendly service and inexpensive breakfasts and buffets.

Here they gamble, eat with their friends, and discuss the play. Dealers and waitresses get to know them and converse pleasantly. The whole scene provides them with a reason for being.

This attention is not be taken lightly in a culture which no longer honors its aged, where thousands of bright, elderly human beings are pushed from their jobs before they are ready to leave, too often placed in dehumanizing institutions of one sort or another.

What the elderly look for is what most gamblers seek: involvement in "the action." Involvement is crucial to their sense of well-being in a society which seems to exclude them from the action of living and tries to hide them away.

All persons have the same chance of marking their cards correctly. Thus, the banker and the retired janitor have approximately the same opportunity for winning, the odds favoring the banker only in that he can last longer due in his greater financial resources.

When the elderly gamblers play, the success of the day is not centered so much on the amount of money taken home, but on the amount of action that one is available. They count their victories in the number of jackpots at the table, not in what they have won as individuals.

If a gambler regards his activity in this sense, he hasn't really lost anything even if he doesn't win. He has paid for a certain amount of high-intensity recreation, much as one pays for a movie or an antique show for the money spent; one has simply bought a few enjoyable hours.

Louis Labat, a University of Nevada gerontologist, is presently experimenting, with some success, in introducing gambling into local homes for the elderly. The reasoning is that gambling can stimulate the elderly to a renewed interest in life. Homes for the aged would do well to allow their residents to gamble, thus keeping them alert and involved rather than dull and tranquilized.

A colleague of mine recognized the importance of gambling when she moved to Las Vegas primarily so that her aged mother could enjoy the game. She felt it a small price to pay for the measure of satisfaction her mother received from gambling, although my colleague herself was bored by the whole casino scene.

Working-Class Gamblers

The importance of gambling to the working class is also found in "the action." The working-class individual sees gambling as a means of surmounting impotence through feeling that he has a hand in his own destiny. Having little opportunity for decision-making in his job, he feels that if he wins, he has in some way controlled his world; if he loses, it is simply a tough break.

Others, whom I've classified as "small rebels", feel that gambling provides them with some measure of escape from unrewarding occupations or family problems. One man said: "All day long you do what them dumb bastard supervisors tell you. Don't make no difference whether it makes sense or not. Sometimes you just gotta get out of line...She (my wife) don't care. I'm easier to live for awhile, I guess."

A working-class man can assert his freedom from his wife and supervisor through gambling. He can blow off steam without having an accident, absenting himself from work, or resorting to industrial sabotage.

We all practice similar forms of escapism, just as we all engage in some form of risk-taking. For many, removing oneself for a brief period of time from the anxiety and tension of daily life is a necessity. Some of us watch television; some have a martini or sleep for an extra few hours. Others find gambling an enjoyable and refreshing respite.

Corporations concerned with the efficiency and the mental well-being of employees who are involved in monotonous tasks might consider incorporating some form of gambling break into the work week. They may find that their workers are more interested and alert. The prizes need not be monetary, but could include time off--a really precious commodity to many people.

The Gambling Executive

On higher socioeconomic levels, gambling seems to provide a sort of concentrated vacation, enabling the individual to return to his or her tasks renewed and invigorated.

A friend of mine made a fortune in the restaurant business by driving himself unmercifully for about 18 hours a day, seven days a week. When he felt really overloaded, he would fly to Tahoe for the weekend. There, he would spend 48 solid hours without sleep at the tables. While on the surface this type of behavior would seem like madness for an individual obviously exhausted, quite the reverse was true. What he needed more than sleep was to be pulled completely away from business for a period of time. Relaxing at a resort would not work for him, since he couldn't lie back without thinking about business. He could, however, get so involved in craps or twenty-one that he completely divorced himself from his cares and managed to return to his work refreshed.

In addition to commanding one's total involvement, gambling also conveys a sense of purity to those who participate. The true gambler is motivated not by greed for money but by the action involved in risk-taking. Thus, he is like the hunter who is more concerned with the codes of sportsmanship and the thrill of the hunt rather than with his ultimate trophies.

In a sense then, there is an honor among gamblers. They enjoy the game for its own sake, and they respect the integrity of a contest where the odds are set--a condition that exists in few other places in contemporary life.

Compulsive Gamblers

What about the man who works all week, then gambles his earnings away on Saturday night while the bills remain unpaid and his children are neglected? This is neither an admirable nor comfortable way to live and I am not defending it. We need to look for the reasons behind excessive gambling instead of condemning gambling itself.

Any compulsion--compulsive handwashing, compulsive overeating, or compulsive gambling--may be a serious problem to the individual afflicted and to that individual's family and community. But it is the compulsion that is bad rather than the activity itself.

Only a small portion of people who perform any activity are compulsives. The proportion of compulsive gamblers to the total number of persons who gamble is small indeed. Those with problems frequently receive help from the various agencies set up for those in need.

In Nevada, gambling has become an environmental fact. People who move to Nevada must learn to adjust to the constant presence of gambling just as they do to the climate in the desert or mountain regions. Those who "over gamble" when they arrive soon learn either not to exceed a certain sum while playing or to stop gambling completely. Relatively few become compulsive gamblers.

Casinos do not cause compulsive gambling any more than soap causes compulsive than handwashing or food causes compulsive overeating. The behavior of the compulsive gambler has a cause, however, and when that cause has been dealt with, the compulsion disappears.

In one case, a woman in her fifties began to exhibit symptoms of compulsive gambling after her husband left her. Although she was well-educated and had a career, she had relied heavily on her husband for decision-making and leadership.

Looking in the mirror, she saw a broken, discouraged woman who was no longer young. She seemed to have almost no identity and she searched desperately for persons on whom to lean. Her friends did what they could and then began to drift away, unwilling to bear the burden of her dependency.

Without a support system of any kind, she considered suicide, then in a "what the hell" kind of mood, she began to gamble-soon finding herself in debt.

A thoroughly confused human being, she had beaten suicide but was relying far too heavily on her gambling as a way out of her problems, which it was not.

Eventually, she came to grips with the fact that she had to help herself. She learned to forgive herself and to accept the fact that she was a worthy human being. A woman's consciousness-raising group helped her to work through her dependencies, to explore her past life, to mature as an individual, and to accept responsibility consisted, in part, in learning to control her gambling and to repay her debts.

Gambling in the Future

How may gambling change in the future? Gambling will, of course, advance technologically. Home mini-casinos operated by credit cards are a long way off, though the technology exists. At the moment, the costs of developing home mini-casinos would far outweigh the likely returns. One reason is that the demand would probably be light, because part of the enjoyment of gambling comes from the surroundings and social contacts, even though gamblers may seem at times to ignore them completely.

Another future possibility is the emergence of a number of gambling cities similar to Las Vegas.

Casino gambling, like any other business, will be subject to future changes in economic conditions. We do know that gambling increases in times of stress such as war or depression. It is unlikely, however, that a resort industry built around casino gambling would grow in conditions of severe economic stress.

Non-Polluting Recreation

Gambling is essentially a non-polluting form of recreation, and as such, may be looked upon more favorably in the future. Gambling resorts, which account for a small part of the total gambling picture, do, of course, pose the same threat to the environment as do other resorts.

Life-style alterations could well change future modes of gambling. The American Indian was using peach and plum-stone dice before the colonists introduced more sophisticated equipment. Today, computer operators use the technology at their disposal to play an occasional game of black jack or keno. The forms are different, but the basic elements are essentially the same.

Ultimately, the future of gambling may depend heavily on changes in people's attitudes. Many people gamble whether it is legal or illegal because it gives them a "spark" which helps them face the world more successfully. Yes, we tend to regard gambling much as the Victorians viewed sex--as something shameful that should be hidden, or confined to red light districts. Fear of taking a chance keeps us repeating our mistakes instead of allowing us the growth that comes from making new ones.

I am not proposing that we solve the world's problems by turning it into a giant casino. I am suggesting that in a time when we need imagination and creativity desperately, we do wrong to suppress an aspect of the human personality which may be a key to these elements.

We must learn to accept and deal with our total humanity if we are to have any chance of creating a society geared to the growth of the individual rather than to merely making him conform. By recognizing the benefits of gambling, we may begin to appreciate our humanity rather than suffer constant guilt over our normal impulses.
Report ZEALOT September 16, 2020 7:56 PM BST
..and that passage was written in 1976 !!!!  Brilliant read that .

G Hall

If you honestly believe that 'winning at betting' is all about looking for the likeliest winner , you are so wide of the mark . Each and every participant in ANY contest has a chance and therefore each has a price . YOU NEED TO FIND SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN OVERLOOKED BY THE ODDS COMPILERS  if you want to make it pay . For example , a Premier League team playing on a Saturday that were involved in the  Europa League less than 48 hours ago in a close fought match may be worth taking on . A horse that finished 5L 3rd behind two subsequent winners who both won in higher grades and runs off an unchanged mark may well be worth a bet and if you can get on early you will probably beat the SP . The Betfair Markets are full of these little gems and when you find one STICK TO IT RELIGIOUSLY without fear or hesitation . Keep turning that money over and with an edge and correct money management it will not be long before you start to earn a decent 2nd income .

Dont want it now . Plan for something a few years down the line . Starting with a betting bank of £2000 and increasing it by 50% each year is well achievable if done the correct way and then you could tweak the %'s and maybe go for 70-80% + per annum .  . Dont set your targets too high and your main aim is not to WATCH YOUR PROFIT AND LOSS like a hawk it is to EXECUTE YOUR PLAN without fear or hesitation . The betting bank will take care of itself .
Report cpfc4me September 17, 2020 3:48 AM BST
"For example, a Premier League team playing on a Saturday that were involved in the Europa League less than 48 hours ago in a close fought match may be worth taking on"

A poor example since everyone in the world knows that they played a Europa League less than 48 hours ago, and this information has already been factored into the prices. In fact, the EPL is probably one of the toughest markets to beat, given the amount of interest, and the professional firms that have far more sophisticated models than any individual will have.

But the comment that successful betting is about value, not winners, is very true as is the observation that a betting bank will take care of itself so long as you have an edge. I started on here with a £98.50 deposit in 2004, (someone charged me £1.50 for the privilege), and that remains the only deposit I have ever made. I'm now paying the 50% Premium Charge having reached the lifetime limit which might sound like a lot of money, but if you're a pro, as so many say they are on here, making just £2,000 a month and you'll be there in just over 10 years. I'm not a pro, as there are easier ways to make a living, and plenty of opportunities outside of work hours, and if you treat it as a hobby it's far less stressful and easier to make the right decision than if you need the money.

If you have any edge, with compounding your bank will grow steadily. Just a half-percent edge and a bank doubles every 139 bets. The trouble is that this growth seems slow, e.g. after 10 bets you've made 5%, and as Warren Buffett has said, "nobody wants to get rich slow". Incidentally if you identify an edge of 1%, your bank doubles every 70 bets. One bet a day at that rate and your £100 bank is nearly £4,000 after a year. Unfortunately what happens is often that someone will get bored, and bet on something they shouldn't, or with more money than they should, and lose the bank. Or they are betting with money they need for living expenses, never a good idea, and withdraw funds. Leave it alone!

"And that’s how a betting bank should be. A betting bank shouldn’t be treated like a savings account, something that you dip into on a frequent basis to ‘pay a few bills’ - it should be money set aside that you will never need and can leave alone to grow. You don’t plant a seed and then keep digging it up if you want to grow a plant. You leave it alone. Once it has grown, it’s perfectly acceptable to do a little pruning, but let the thing grow first."

Everyone should record their betting, and having a spreadsheet and projecting into the future can be very motivating. It's similar to weight loss in a way, only in reverse! You might want to lose a couple of stone, but unless you lose a limb, you're not going to achieve that goal quickly. You achieve it by losing three or four ounces a day. Again, it's about patience and discipline. It might be easy to give up after losing "only" 2 lbs in a week because the goal looks so far away, but a spreadsheet showing progress and a target date makes it much more understandable and thus achievable.
Report G Hall September 17, 2020 6:17 PM BST
Some excellent posts there, really illuminating for someone like me, who has been gambling for longer than I care to remember.

What has been mentioned in the above posts would be alien to me. I spent a lot of time today absorbing the key points of the posts. I am going to have to overhaul my betting and look at it in terms of numbers, rather than horses or football teams, this won't come easily I can say with out any doubt

I will basically start from scratch, the concept of perhaps turning 2K into 3K after a year, is a shocker for me. I have often turned 100 into 1500/2000 over a few days only to fritter it away and more in a few hours.

However if I had adopted that approach since I signed up to the machine I would possibly be paying PC at this stage.

Many many thanks for the responses, and advice, it's time to start again.
Report timbuctooth September 17, 2020 7:57 PM BST
...look at it in terms of numbers, rather than horses or football teams,`

That`s the whole trick!

And an unusually honest post!

If, (like most of us used to), you want to go down the bookies on a Saturday afternoon, have a bit of fun, then you can ignore everything you`ve read above. But do you want to have some fun, or do you want to win, long term? They`re not the same; you kinda lose the immediate `fun` bit, but that`s replaced by a warm glow every morning when you wake up and remember that, after x years of losing, you`re now a WINNER! And this feeling being (I hope!) permanent, not the fleeting joy of the odd decent day of fun, is far more pleasant.

Pros don`t win by picking more winners than you, they`re only betting when the numbers are right, the price is right, the value`s there. Get the value and it doesn`t matter how many bets you have, they`ll all have a positive expectancy, which is the only thing that matters, long term, and the winners, whenever they come, will take care of themselves, leaving you in front. As above, the difference between getting 9/2 and 11/2 is the difference between mugs and pros, even though they`re backing the very same selections. Take evens, you lose, get 11/10 you stop losing, but get 6/5 and you`re the winner; so, long term, it is all down to numbers, not selections. Long term winning has nothing to do with finding winners, only finding value.

And, of course, not being greedy! `Chipping away`, not going for the mug jackpot, sticking (generally) to singles; with every extra selection on the bet the overround multiplies against you, so why handicap yourself further? If you want to win like the pros, you have to behave like them and, while backing singles might not seem exciting, just you wait til the morning comes that you wake up, remembering that you`re a long term WINNER!

Very best of luck with it.
Report politicspunter September 18, 2020 5:38 PM BST

Sep 17, 2020 -- 7:17PM, G Hall wrote:

Some excellent posts there, really illuminating for someone like me, who has been gambling for longer than I care to remember. What has been mentioned in the above posts would be alien to me. I spent a lot of time today absorbing the key points of the posts. I am going to have to overhaul my betting and look at it in terms of numbers, rather than horses or football teams, this won't come easily I can say with out any doubt I will basically start from scratch, the concept of perhaps turning 2K into 3K after a year, is a shocker for me. I have often turned 100 into 1500/2000 over a few days only to fritter it away and more in a few hours.However if I had adopted that approach since I signed up to the machine I would possibly be paying PC at this stage.Many many thanks for the responses, and advice, it's time to start again.

Don't bet on horses, dogs or football. Bet on niche markets where if you study you will have more knowledge than bookmakers or folks that bet on exchanges.

Report cpfc4me September 18, 2020 8:49 PM BST
Don't bet on horses, dogs or football. Bet on niche markets where if you study you will have more knowledge than bookmakers or folks that bet on exchanges.

This is good advice. You are highly unlikely to find a long-term edge in these sports unless you have access to inside information or understand where markets have inefficiencies due to participants acting irrationally. I'd include tennis in this list too.

In my experience, you have more chance of finding an edge in sports from other countries. Study the data, and see where trends exist, often more many years. E.g. Small Road 'Dogs in the NFL.
Report ZEALOT September 19, 2020 5:52 PM BST
Alot of folk who do not have a passion for horseracing believe that its totally bent and you can only win with inside information . This is 100% false info .
Report politicspunter September 19, 2020 8:38 PM BST

Sep 19, 2020 -- 6:52PM, ZEALOT wrote:

Alot of folk who do not have a passion for horseracing believe that its totally bent and you can only win with inside information . This is 100% false info .

You are correct, the bookies always win at horse racing over a period of time. Same with dogs and football.

Report politicspunter September 19, 2020 8:51 PM BST
You should concentrate on a maximum of two niche sports/betting mediums. They should normally only have two possible results. Research the event well in advance, price up the contenders, sit and wait for the bookies/exchanges estimating what the prices should be. Mine is politics, it's a licence to print money.
Report cpfc4me September 24, 2020 7:51 PM BST
Alot of folk who do not have a passion for horseracing believe that its totally bent and you can only win with inside information . This is 100% false info .

I don't disagree that you can win without inside information, but it is rare and time consuming, and certainly true that insiders have an advantage that most people will not be able to overcome long term.

My anecdotal Two Swallows story explains the disadvantage you are up against. There are more even playing fields and markets than those of horse racing.
Report G Hall September 24, 2020 8:43 PM BST
I listened to Dylan Evans talking about expert gamblers on youtube, well worth a listen.
Report politicspunter September 24, 2020 10:08 PM BST
I think the term gamblers is often poorly used. For what it's worth I don't consider myself a gambler, the folks who bet against me are gamblers. Now that might initially seem aloof but I am trying to emphasise the point that if you do your study/ preparation on your niche market, then you should be in a position to know the true chances of the contestants. Now it's just a case of waiting till bookies/exchanges price up your market.
Report cpfc4me September 25, 2020 12:13 AM BST
if you do your study/ preparation on your niche market, then you should be in a position to know the true chances of the contestants.

Agreed. And you will be in a position to know what market biases are at play, and where the value may lay.

I don't see the same opportunities in horse racing.
Report politicspunter September 25, 2020 6:53 AM BST
There are biases in virtually all betting mediums, some very minor and some massive. In football eg, a Man U supporter is very unlikely to bet Man City to beat his team in a derby, irrespective of the price. In politics, it's all about bias. There is no way that a diehard Conservative will bet Labour or SNP say, to beat their party at any level, whether it's a constituency, by election, whatever. This is where if you are completely independent and can price markets according to their true chances, you can consistently return a profit. In the USA the bias divisions are even worse on a straight democratic/republican bet. These same biases are present in multiple events, from major sports to specials bets such as strictly come dancing and if you can remain independent in your assessments on any event, you will have greatly increased your winning chances.
Report G Hall September 26, 2020 10:17 AM BST

When you started with your bank of £100, (98.50), can you recall what it had grown to after the first year.
Report cpfc4me September 26, 2020 8:05 PM BST
When you started with your bank of £100, (98.50), can you recall what it had grown to after the first year.

I opened my account in 2004, and it was around £1,300 later that year, but I was clueless and just lucky. Just as fast, I was down to £20 and as I related in my blog in 2012, was one loss away from giving up:

I've told my Betfair story before, but in short, I started in March 2004, with a deposit (after fees) of £98.50, and spent the rest of that year and 2005 going up to a four figure sum, then down to a low two figure sum, and within £20 of going bust, at which point I would have walked away.

I started recording my bets as a New Year resolution in 2006 and it's one I've managed to keep going to this day.

At the end of 2005 my Betfair balance was £1,329.05, end of 2006 £32,703.91, 2007 £49,439.70, 2008 £101,039.64. I hit the lifetime limit on 27th August 2012. My most profitable sport was NBA where a simple strategy of laying a team taking a lead proved very lucrative for many years. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum...

I also found it helpful to blog. My blog isn't a P&L blog but it's been going since 2008 and gives some insight into how my betting has evolved over the years. Some of the older posts are a little embarrassing to read, but I've left everything out there as it's all part of the learning process.
Report G Hall September 26, 2020 9:08 PM BST
Thanks for all that information CPFC, I will check the blog as well. I am finding this more difficult than I anticipated. I am currently trying to overhaul every aspect of what I have done previously.

All the help I have been getting is of great benefit to me, really appreciated.
Report subversion September 27, 2020 3:22 PM BST
You need discipline *AND* an edge.

No Discipline, No Edge = lose rapidly

Yes Discipline, No Edge = lose slowly

No Discipline, Yes Edge = win until you go on tilt and explode spectacularly

Yes Discipline, Yes Edge = HOLY GRAIL
Report ZEALOT October 15, 2020 6:48 PM BST
When you think of betting as fun you have absolutely no chance of winning long term but if you are betting in £1s there is no problem at all . The problem begins when you begin losing big money over a number of months and you have no control . Always remember that you would have to turnover about 30k ( an average of £600 a week ) to win 3k per annum , and that would be a fabulous result - Not the £2000 turnover to win the 100k that many believe .
Report SOULDANCER October 16, 2020 7:14 AM BST
The average lottery player gets 25% of their stake returned.
The average racehorse punter gets 75% of their stake returned.

If you put the work in it's not hard to change the racing loss into a profit.

The advantage with racing is there are so many horses, races, trainers, owners, courses that if you research, study, work hard you'll find lots of edges ... strategies.

Talking to punters the majority don't put the work in.

History tends to repeat itself, you can learn so much from it and that helps when betting horses.
Report VardonVoo. October 16, 2020 12:38 PM BST
"The average racehorse punter gets 75% of their stake returned"

Does that translate as "The bookies edge is 25%"? If so I can't see how any amount of "work" could overcome an over-round of that magnitude without inside knowledge.

I've never used a high street bookie. On BF I feel I'm getting fair "market" odds minus any slippage due to liquidity issues. Over many years I have been net profitable, but nearly half my profit has been absorbed in commission. I definitely made more money in the past than I have in recent years, but that may be due to different circumstances for me - I'm not necessarily blaming BF or liquidity, etc though these may be a factor.

One thing is certain - you can have a significant edge and still lose in the long run if your bet-sizing is wrong. The Kelly criterion proves this.
Discipline is often inversely proportional to buzz - getting that balance right is tricky for some. Shaping your book for a big but unlikely win instead of greening out for regular modest profits on any outcome is a temptation that you usually have to resist. Increasing a position as it goes against you, hoping for a reversal trade can pay off but leads to a much bigger loss when it goes wrong, then you have to battle "recovery" psychology for your following bets with a reduced bank which leads you back to the "rare big win vs regular small gains" discipline.

In the financial markets they have a saying:-

"It's not you against the markets - it's just you"
Report politicspunter October 16, 2020 1:40 PM BST
"Over many years I have been net profitable, but nearly half my profit has been absorbed in commission." You need to take into account commission when placing your bets and working out profit/loss.
Report SOULDANCER October 17, 2020 6:11 AM BST
As long as punters are sensible and not addicts punting is cheap entertainment even if they lose.

Comments I've heard over the years by punters.

If a horse opens up 9-1 get on.
1st dog race on a Saturday bet no. 1.
My mate bets no.1 or e.w. or if the horse is spotform and sf and Newsboy tipped.
Another mate bets horses with gold or silver in the name.

If you can't improve 25% on that I'd worry for you.
Report SOULDANCER October 17, 2020 6:28 AM BST
And there's the punters that are not online so have no access for intensive form research.

Horseracing is easiest way to turn a profit for me and that's with online accounts.

I find betting on exchange harder, horses drift and lose mostly but others drift alarmingly yet still turn up and win. Hardly bet on here, just can't find a bet.

Like guaranteed prices gives you a chance of finishing ahead.
Report roadrunner46 October 17, 2020 10:00 AM BST

Oct 16, 2020 -- 8:14AM, SOULDANCER wrote:

The average lottery player gets 25% of their stake returned.The average racehorse punter gets 75% of their stake returned.If you put the work in it's not hard to change the racing loss into a profit.The advantage with racing is there are so many horses, races, trainers, owners, courses that if you research, study, work hard you'll find lots of edges ... strategies.Talking to punters the majority don't put the work in.History tends to repeat itself, you can learn so much from it and that helps when betting horses.

this post is bang on the money in regards all the different opportunities horse racing has to offer for research

Report betting_masta October 20, 2020 8:02 PM BST
yes, well said re: horse racing. you can gain edges in racing, and actually in all sports betting, that's why bookmakers restrict people, but they don't restrict casino players
Report eyeball October 23, 2020 11:05 AM BST
I can only speak from my own experience .

Concentrate on one sport .

Know more about that sport than the layer .

Be able to arrive at a percentage chance of your wager being successful .

Bet when the odds are in your favour .

Be prepared for bans , limits and pc charges .

It will not last forever unless you find other ways of getting on .

It's a marathon , not a sprint .
Report RioGrande November 15, 2020 11:24 PM GMT
headache reading this pish
Report Nebs November 15, 2020 11:46 PM GMT
No bet is better than a bad bet.
Report ericster November 24, 2020 1:35 PM GMT
Lol Grande.
Report VardonVoo. January 12, 2021 10:02 AM GMT
Why do so many lose at gambling? One simple reason - gambling is a zero sum game before costs, therefore the costs of providing any platform has to come out of the total pool gambled before the winnings can get distributed, making it a minus-sum game. The total won by the winners can never exceed the total lost by the losers. if you have a random distribution of large winners and losers versus small winners and losers then overall there would always be more losers than winners once you reduce the pool by the costs. As for the distribution of winners and losers, this is where psychological factors come in. It also stands to reason that small losers can stay in the game indefinitely as their day-job replenishes their banks whereas large losers will soon be wiped out, so a larger number of small losers would need to be the norm in order that there would be enough money to pay off both the many small winners and the few large winners who would no longer be balanced by the quickly-eliminated large losers.

Compare the above with "gambling" on some kind of investment, such as the stockmarket. then it is no longer a zero-sum game over the long-term as the value of companies have a positive expectation. You still have to deduct the costs of trading from the overall pool but the overall pool isn't fixed anymore. There is an in-built assumption that you buy shares in companies so that they can expand and grow and increase their profits over and above the rate of erosion of the value of the money used to buy the shares. The extra money is coming from the customers of the company, minus the raw materials, taxes and salaries, etc paid. So the actual pool of money that would be split between winning and losing investors is increasing over time. That's simply not true for gambling - the winners only get paid from what's left out of the losers' money.
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