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kw
24 Dec 17 12:36
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Date Joined: 09 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 458 | Blogger: kw's blog
Well it's a boring xmas eve and touring the net I found out that Adrien Massey has revived his site to allow race profiling for free. I tried messing with this a few years ago with mixed results. I note several firms are following this as systems for sale and am wondering whether to take another look. Suggestions???

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Replies: 176
By:
kw
When: 25 Dec 17 11:48
Well spent a bit of time on AM site and came up with the following for Boxing Day from Fontwell and Market Rasen. Have only looked at Handicap races at Fontwell and Market Rasen. Can't find anything for Hcp Hurdles at Fontwell but the 2.00 looks between Bredon and Bajardo though Little Jim is not out of it. At MR 12.05 Friendship Bay 1.10 Far Loch or Thank you very much 2.15 Saint John Henry or Petite Power 2.50 Arctic Milan or Sergio 3.25 Vivas or Mr Snoozy. I don't know how they will go but if anyone can sort them further then please post. Good luck and a happy and profitable Boxing Day to all.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 25 Dec 17 13:45
kw.......2.00 Fontwell.....no idea how you arrive at the 3 horses you mention???

Can't be based on "profiling"........I suggest you check out TIMEFORM for that race re PREVIOUS WINNERS for that race. Just go on BF to 2.00 Fontwell , then click on "Form & Results" , then check out 2.00 race.

Suggest your 3 are unlikely to win, based on going likely tomorrow.

GL .........and thanks for mentioning AM site there again!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 25 Dec 17 21:19
As GOING now described as -


SOFT (Heavy in places) (GoingStick 6.1) (Rail movements: Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 7 +96yds and +144yds to Race 6) (Light rain)


then may well change from SOFT to HEAVY.

If this does happen.....makes the race more difficult to weigh up. One of your 3 might now have a chance to win....but race now looks too hard for me to "guess" the winner.

    ALBATROS DE GUYE may well have a fair chance if HEAVY, and the odds appear too high if HEAVY.

Your Bajardo may well fight out finish.

BROWN BEAR if SOFT going....

GL with race.
By:
kw
When: 27 Dec 17 11:57
Well not sure what to make of yesterday. Would have finished up having 11 bets with 2 winners at 7/2  and 12/1 at SP and a return of 17.5. Profit 6.5 a 59% ROI. Have looked today and offer up the following for consideration.
2.05 Wetherby -- Cyrus Darius and possibly Pain au Chocolate if it's 10/1 or less
3.05 Kempton -- Sir Ivan and Hollybush Henry
3.40 Kempton -- Kayf Grace, Eddie Maurice and Montys Award
By:
kw
When: 27 Dec 17 16:29
OK so a loss today Stakes 7 Return 3.75 Loss 3.25. Running totals Stakes 18 Returns 21.25 Profit 3.25 ROI 18.05.
Will try again tomorrow
By:
kw
When: 28 Dec 17 10:15
Concentrating on Catterick. Most of the selections come with a price caveat which should reduce number of selections.
I will use all singles returns at SP as I feel this is best. Others could look at Fcasts etc

1.05 --- Betancourt ( Max 10/1 )

1.35 --- Calypso Delegator and Copt Hill ( Both Max 14/1 )

2.40 --- Golden Investment, Cottersrock, Captain Mowbray, Hattons Hill, Attention Please ( All mx 10/1 )

3.15 --- Durbanville, Triopas, Secret Passenger ( all max 14/1 )

Good luck everyone whatever you back.
By:
kw
When: 28 Dec 17 15:30
OK so Stakes 9 and return of 8 means a loss of 1. Running totals Stakes 27 Returns 29.25 and profit of 2.25. Will try again tomorrow
By:
kw
When: 30 Dec 17 10:02
Jumping resumes so we go again. As always returne etc are based on ISP as this is the toughest criteria to fulfill. It will undoubtedly be possible to better the returns by using BSP or BOG.
Newbury

1.15 --- Remiluc
1.50 --- Sir Anthony Browne, Huntsman Son, Brave Eagle
2.25 --- Wuff

Haydock

1.35 --- Thomas Patrick
2.10 --- Emperors Choice
2.45 --- Federici, Church Hall

Taunton

1.25 --- Silent Steps, Sidney de Baune
2.00 --- Bandsman
2.35 --- Burrenbridge Hotel, Glimpse of Gold

Good luck today everyone. If you can sort these further then so much the better.
By:
kw
When: 30 Dec 17 22:27
Stakes today 14 with returns of 11.50 and a loss of 2.50. Running totals Stake 41 Returns - 0.25 at ISP prices. Not disastrous as BSP still showing a few points profit . Will try again tomorrow.
By:
kw
When: 31 Dec 17 10:18
Today's selections with a few caveats

Uttoxeter

12.20 --- The favourite if Comber Mill or C'est du Cahtea else no bet
1.25 -- The Horsechestnut , Kilcasen
1.55 -- Cave Top if favourite else no bet
2.25 -- No Dice
3,00 -- River Dun if favourite else no bet

Warwick

1.00 --- Shanty Town, Paddy the Oscar
2.05 --- Culture De Sivolo, Flashjack, Definately Vinnie
2.35 --- Dontminddboys, Very Live, Arquebusier

As always at ISP but you can probably beat that in other ways. Comments most welcome
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 31 Dec 17 17:36
Don't understand why a selection HAS TO BE A FAVOURITE kw???

If you have narrowed(filtered) it down to a possible winner.....then you will miss out on winners like COMBER HILL that was at good odds and also had factors in favour ffor that race.The fav in that race did have a chance to win that race, as a number of factors in the horse's favour.....but 1 dodgy jump near end possibly stopped it winning, though COMBER HILL did win fairly well at finish.

I know that certain races are often won by the fav........but the "market" is not infallible, otherwise all favs would winDevilGrin

If you believe a FAVOURITE has a strong chance to win, based on profiling a race, then why not consider your main selection with FAV in a RFC......or your 2 main selections with FAV in combination SFC etc etc.....

GL in New Year.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 31 Dec 17 17:44
2.05 race...result

Jack Sherwood silk    5. FLASHJACK (IRE) 4/1 jf
2nd    Conor Ring silk    7. DEFINATELY VINNIE 7/1
3rd    Lizzie Kelly silk    1. CULTURE DE SIVOLA (FR) 9/2
All 8 ran.

As those were your 3 selections...then  6 bet combination bet worked there....

You had one of the JT favs in your 3...therefor you don't include the other one...etc etc
By:
kw
When: 01 Jan 18 10:38
Hi. Felt a bit unlucky with Comber Hill as was Fav when I put it up but that's life. Tricasts was interesting though. Well finished up with a loss  of 4.63 at ISP. Running totals Stakes 53 Loss ( 4.88 ).
Bye the way I do not exclude or include Favs it's just that in that type of race Favs have a good record  at Uttoxeter. Anyway on to the selections today.

Exeter
1.15 --- Billy Hicks
2.25 --- Resolution Bay
3.35 --- Dance Floor King, Major Hindrance, Cap Horner

Catterick

1.00 --- Today Please, Inniscastle Lad, Life Knowledge, Hartside
2.45 --- Ramonex
3.20 --- Panis  Angelicus, Emma Beag

Cheltenham

2.00 --- Viconte Du Noyer, Ballyhill
2.35 --- Buckle Street

Fakenham

1.55 Fixed Rate
2.30 More than Luck

Musselborough

3.25 Smiling Jessica, Robins Legend

Good luck everyone
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 01 Jan 18 11:56
Each race should be appraised on the horses in the race...trainers...GOING etc etc .......Just because a race may have been won by FAVS in the past is IMO irrelevant.

Approximately 1 in 3 races are won by a FAV......but 2 out of 3 are not etc etc etc.

COMBER HILL had stronger factors in its favour for that race than the eventual FAV.....and it was by far a better VALUE bet at odds of 7 SP .

The FAV might have won in that race, as it had been doing CHASE type races, and with the GOING being HEAVY ............at the distance of race and CLASS of race....it could have won...or come close to winning.

EXCLUDING COMBER HILL because it was not FAV is an dubious way to EXCLUDE a horse for selection! There are so many FACTORS that can give a horse a chance to win............the fact it might end up FAV at the off is just 1 FACTOR ....but it is well down the list of other more important factors that are relevant to the race.

You say you are not EXCLUDING or INCLUDING a horse because it is a FAV.......but that really is missing the point, as you EXCLUDED the first named horse, COMBER HILL, just because it was not FAV at the off!

Sorry for going on about this point, however VALUE is more important than a horse being a FAV.........and you are doing really well on listing horses that do have a chance to win, or coming 2nd ( and 3rd.....but generally TRICAST bets are far harder to achieve than a SFC/EXACTA.......perhaps a PLACE bet or LAY IR  or HEDGING bet........depends on your STRATEGY.)

Anyway, GL today and with your profiling.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 01 Jan 18 15:41
Very good start to year kw...wdGrin
By:
kw
When: 01 Jan 18 15:53
Well that's better. Today's Stakes 18. Returns 28.75 and a Profit of 10.75.
Running Totals Stakes 71 with a Profit  of 6.12. Does race profiling work. I suppose the answer may be possibly.

Will try again tomorrow.
By:
kw
When: 01 Jan 18 16:03
Bye the way. Thanks for the advice re price. Will try to remove this from calculations.
By:
kw
When: 02 Jan 18 10:01
Only the one meeting at Ayr today but a few selections that will hopefully continue in a positive vein.

1.00 --- Nice and Easy, Scip the Scales, Rivabodiva, Lastinmemories
2.10 --- Un Noble
2.40 --- Onlyorsenfoolsies, Elusive Theatre
3.10 --- Las Tunas, Roxyfet, Sky full of Stars
By:
kw
When: 02 Jan 18 15:25
A very small profit at ISP. Stakes today 10 Profit .25.Running Totals Stakes 81 Profit 6.37
Profit BSP was 1 today so if backing it would seem to be best to go that way. Haven't checked back results at BSP but the profit is probably 3 or 4 points better than SP

Back tomorrow
By:
kw
When: 03 Jan 18 10:08
Musselborough handicap hurdles are not easy and at the moment I am ignoring them Today's selections are

Ludlow

2.20 --- Tree of Liberty, Little Chunk, Nightfly
2.50 --- Braventara
3.20 --- Hedgeinator, It's a Steal

Musselborough

1.30 --- Boys on tour

Be lucky everyone
By:
kw
When: 03 Jan 18 15:51
A small profit today. Stakes 7 Return 7.87 Profit .87 @ ISP. Would have been Profit of 2.39 @ BSP.
Running Totals -- Stakes 88 Profit 7.24 @ ISP

Also a couple of forecasts which may be interesting.

With regard to Musselborough Hcp Hdls I had another look at them and would have shown a profit of 5.25 @ ISP so may include selections from here in future.

Bach tomorrow
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Jan 18 16:44
You have had more than 2 SFCS/EXACTAS......if you did 6 bet COMBINATION including FAV with first 2 of your selections kw......Definitely worth checking back re your selections ans results.

Good to see a horse racing strategy thread on hereCool
By:
raspberrybottom
When: 03 Jan 18 18:24
This is developing into a very nice, interesting thread.

Hope you keep going, kw and good luck.

PS - DFC always offers interesting opinions and advice, and that normally

helps a thread along!Happy
By:
kw
When: 04 Jan 18 10:19
Thanks for the comments. A pretty quiet day today with only a couple of selections.

Bangor

1.15 ---The Kings Writ
3.20 --- American Life
By:
kw
When: 04 Jan 18 17:14
A couple of losers so the running Totals are now Stakes 90 Profit 5.24. Only 1 jumps meeting tomorrow as well. Hopefully there will be something at Wetherby.
By:
kw
When: 05 Jan 18 10:06
Unfortunately jump racing abandoned today so will be back on tomorrow hopefully. Though I might take a look at the all weather. Doubtful of anything there but you never know.
By:
ZEALOT
When: 05 Jan 18 22:42
try n beat bsp . do it regular . you win
By:
kw
When: 06 Jan 18 10:31
Well racing returns though there's not much that throws up qualifiers.

Wincanton

1.05 --- D'Arcy Sound, Jaune Et Bleu, Multigifted
3.15 --- Bill and Barn
3.45 --- Monbeg Theatre

Chepstow

1.00 --- Scotchtown, Another Venture, Socksy

So just the 8 selections. As an aside there were a couple that I put up to keep on the right side but will not be backing. May be useful on running. They just failed to make it as selections and I am not allowing ' wiggle ' room to keep the main selections clean.

Wincanton 1.40 - Gowell, 3.45 - Tajbalandabad, Ballyheague Bay

Good luck everyone
By:
kw
When: 06 Jan 18 15:58
No good today with a loss of 5.37. The running totals are now Stakes 98 Profit - .13
Still up with BSP but disappointing. Hopefully with improve tomorrow.
By:
kw
When: 07 Jan 18 10:19
Another uninspiring day today. It's been a poor week but we continue to prove the premise one way or another. All of the calculations I am using have produced a profit every year over the last 5 years at every track although losing runs can obviously be expected.
Today's options are.

Plumpton

2.05 --- Project Mars, Heluvagood
3.10 --- Ramore Will, Sir Hubert

Good luck to all.
By:
kw
When: 07 Jan 18 17:42
Poor day again. Running totals Stakes -- 102 Profit -- ( - 4.13 )
Try again tomorrow
By:
kw
When: 08 Jan 18 09:58
The weather takes its toll again leaving just Fontwell my local track. I can't find any way to make a decent profit from Hcp hurdles races here ( suggestions please ) but Hcp chases can provide a good return though only 2.15 provides any qualifiers.

2.15 -- Grayed A or Finish the Story should win this.
I shall only be backing Finish The Story and will only include this selection in Totals as short priced Favs in chases will not provide a profit so there is little point in playing them. Some will say that I should use the Fav as a saver and that may well be so but to keep the file clean it is not a selection.

Could do with a thaw. Good Luck everyone
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Jan 18 11:01
With GOING in between for 2.15 race( SOFT HEAVY IN PLACES), then this makes it difficult race to weigh up, especially for distance and few runners.

If it was HEAVY the fav appears likely to win....but is not  definite HEAVY going.

If near SOFT going, then I suspect the 9 year old horses might be the value bets in race....IF going was SOFT!

AS going is not clear.....probably would not put too much on race.

FAV carrying top weight to be 1st with 2 and 3 being 2nd in 2 SFCS/EXACTAS might be worth wee dabble.

As doubt on going...perhaps the fav may not place....so COMBINATION EXACTA bet with 2,3 and 5 is worth a wee dabble cover bet????


GL with race.
By:
kw
When: 09 Jan 18 11:00
Well called re the Fav ironman.
Currently running Stakes -- 103. Loss ( - 5.13 )

More interesting today with selections as follows

Taunton

12.35 -- Overawed, Chilli Romance, Boutan
2.10 -- Relentless Dreamer, Sandy Beach, Timeforwest
2.45 -- Fidux, Here's Herbie

Doncaster

3.10 -- General Mahler, Doktor Glaz

Hopefully a few winners to get me back on track

Good luck
By:
kw
When: 10 Jan 18 11:12
Ok. So things are not going well but to be fair I have to continue for a few weeks more before killing this off. Running Totals now Stakes --- 116.  Profit/ loss ( 16.13 )

Today's selections

Ludlow

1.55 --- Wandrin Star, Megabucks

3.35 --- Marvelous Monty, Fille Des Champs

Hopefully a winner or two to get back on track.
By:
kw
When: 11 Jan 18 10:47
A couple hit the bar yesterday but as they say no cigar.
Running Totals --- Stakes. 120  Profit/ loss -- ( - 20.13 ). Anyway I go on

Leicester

12.45 -- Diamond Rock
2.50 -- Fields of Glory, Chasma
3.25 -- Du Soleil

Catterick

2.35 -- I Just Know, Golden Investment
3.10 -- Minstrel Royal, Astaroland
3.45 -- Calypso Delegator

Good luck all.
By:
kw
When: 12 Jan 18 10:59
Feeling quite underwhelmed by results as I was expecting better. At least a winner yesterday.
Running totals-- Stakes 129. Profit / Loss ( - 24.13 ). Does race profiling work. Not on this showing. Anyway I continue to totally prove the argument.

Huntingdon

1.30! -- Shining Romeo, Just so Cool, Le Capricieux

Sedgefield

2.10 -- Castletown, Bentons Lad
3.10 -- Hedgeinator

Good luck
By:
kw
When: 12 Jan 18 16:16
Nearly a really good day. A profit at SP of  6.25
Running Totals -- Stakes 135 Profit/ Loss ( - 17.88 )

Back tomorrow
By:
raspberrybottom
When: 12 Jan 18 17:36
Well done, kw.

Keep it up! Happy
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