Does race profiling work?

kw.......2.00 Fontwell.....no idea how you arrive at the 3 horses you mention???

Can't be based on "profiling"........I suggest you check out TIMEFORM for that race re PREVIOUS WINNERS for that race. Just go on BF to 2.00 Fontwell , then click on "Form & Results" , then check out 2.00 race.

Suggest your 3 are unlikely to win, based on going likely tomorrow.

GL .........and thanks for mentioning AM site there again!

Well not sure what to make of yesterday. Would have finished up having 11 bets with 2 winners at 7/2  and 12/1 at SP and a return of 17.5. Profit 6.5 a 59% ROI. Have looked today and offer up the following for consideration.
2.05 Wetherby -- Cyrus Darius and possibly Pain au Chocolate if it's 10/1 or less
3.05 Kempton -- Sir Ivan and Hollybush Henry
3.40 Kempton -- Kayf Grace, Eddie Maurice and Montys Award

Concentrating on Catterick. Most of the selections come with a price caveat which should reduce number of selections.
I will use all singles returns at SP as I feel this is best. Others could look at Fcasts etc

1.05 --- Betancourt ( Max 10/1 )

1.35 --- Calypso Delegator and Copt Hill ( Both Max 14/1 )

2.40 --- Golden Investment, Cottersrock, Captain Mowbray, Hattons Hill, Attention Please ( All mx 10/1 )

3.15 --- Durbanville, Triopas, Secret Passenger ( all max 14/1 )

Good luck everyone whatever you back.

Jumping resumes so we go again. As always returne etc are based on ISP as this is the toughest criteria to fulfill. It will undoubtedly be possible to better the returns by using BSP or BOG.
Newbury

1.15 --- Remiluc
1.50 --- Sir Anthony Browne, Huntsman Son, Brave Eagle
2.25 --- Wuff

Haydock

1.35 --- Thomas Patrick
2.10 --- Emperors Choice
2.45 --- Federici, Church Hall

Taunton

1.25 --- Silent Steps, Sidney de Baune
2.00 --- Bandsman
2.35 --- Burrenbridge Hotel, Glimpse of Gold

Good luck today everyone. If you can sort these further then so much the better.

Today's selections with a few caveats

Uttoxeter

12.20 --- The favourite if Comber Mill or C'est du Cahtea else no bet
1.25 -- The Horsechestnut , Kilcasen
1.55 -- Cave Top if favourite else no bet
2.25 -- No Dice
3,00 -- River Dun if favourite else no bet

Warwick

1.00 --- Shanty Town, Paddy the Oscar
2.05 --- Culture De Sivolo, Flashjack, Definately Vinnie
2.35 --- Dontminddboys, Very Live, Arquebusier

As always at ISP but you can probably beat that in other ways. Comments most welcome

2.05 race...result

Jack Sherwood silk    5. FLASHJACK (IRE) 4/1 jf
2nd    Conor Ring silk    7. DEFINATELY VINNIE 7/1
3rd    Lizzie Kelly silk    1. CULTURE DE SIVOLA (FR) 9/2
All 8 ran.

As those were your 3 selections...then  6 bet combination bet worked there....

You had one of the JT favs in your 3...therefor you don't include the other one...etc etc

Each race should be appraised on the horses in the race...trainers...GOING etc etc .......Just because a race may have been won by FAVS in the past is IMO irrelevant.

Approximately 1 in 3 races are won by a FAV......but 2 out of 3 are not etc etc etc.

COMBER HILL had stronger factors in its favour for that race than the eventual FAV.....and it was by far a better VALUE bet at odds of 7 SP .

The FAV might have won in that race, as it had been doing CHASE type races, and with the GOING being HEAVY ............at the distance of race and CLASS of race....it could have won...or come close to winning.

EXCLUDING COMBER HILL because it was not FAV is an dubious way to EXCLUDE a horse for selection! There are so many FACTORS that can give a horse a chance to win............the fact it might end up FAV at the off is just 1 FACTOR ....but it is well down the list of other more important factors that are relevant to the race.

You say you are not EXCLUDING or INCLUDING a horse because it is a FAV.......but that really is missing the point, as you EXCLUDED the first named horse, COMBER HILL, just because it was not FAV at the off!

Sorry for going on about this point, however VALUE is more important than a horse being a FAV.........and you are doing really well on listing horses that do have a chance to win, or coming 2nd ( and 3rd.....but generally TRICAST bets are far harder to achieve than a SFC/EXACTA.......perhaps a PLACE bet or LAY IR  or HEDGING bet........depends on your STRATEGY.)

Anyway, GL today and with your profiling.

Well that's better. Today's Stakes 18. Returns 28.75 and a Profit of 10.75.
Running Totals Stakes 71 with a Profit  of 6.12. Does race profiling work. I suppose the answer may be possibly.

Will try again tomorrow.

Only the one meeting at Ayr today but a few selections that will hopefully continue in a positive vein.

1.00 --- Nice and Easy, Scip the Scales, Rivabodiva, Lastinmemories
2.10 --- Un Noble
2.40 --- Onlyorsenfoolsies, Elusive Theatre
3.10 --- Las Tunas, Roxyfet, Sky full of Stars

Musselborough handicap hurdles are not easy and at the moment I am ignoring them Today's selections are

Ludlow

2.20 --- Tree of Liberty, Little Chunk, Nightfly
2.50 --- Braventara
3.20 --- Hedgeinator, It's a Steal

Musselborough

1.30 --- Boys on tour

Be lucky everyone

You have had more than 2 SFCS/EXACTAS......if you did 6 bet COMBINATION including FAV with first 2 of your selections kw......Definitely worth checking back re your selections ans results.

Good to see a horse racing strategy thread on here

Thanks for the comments. A pretty quiet day today with only a couple of selections.

Bangor

1.15 ---The Kings Writ
3.20 --- American Life

Unfortunately jump racing abandoned today so will be back on tomorrow hopefully. Though I might take a look at the all weather. Doubtful of anything there but you never know.

Well racing returns though there's not much that throws up qualifiers.

Wincanton

1.05 --- D'Arcy Sound, Jaune Et Bleu, Multigifted
3.15 --- Bill and Barn
3.45 --- Monbeg Theatre

Chepstow

1.00 --- Scotchtown, Another Venture, Socksy

So just the 8 selections. As an aside there were a couple that I put up to keep on the right side but will not be backing. May be useful on running. They just failed to make it as selections and I am not allowing ' wiggle ' room to keep the main selections clean.

Wincanton 1.40 - Gowell, 3.45 - Tajbalandabad, Ballyheague Bay

Good luck everyone

Another uninspiring day today. It's been a poor week but we continue to prove the premise one way or another. All of the calculations I am using have produced a profit every year over the last 5 years at every track although losing runs can obviously be expected.
Today's options are.

Plumpton

2.05 --- Project Mars, Heluvagood
3.10 --- Ramore Will, Sir Hubert

Good luck to all.

The weather takes its toll again leaving just Fontwell my local track. I can't find any way to make a decent profit from Hcp hurdles races here ( suggestions please ) but Hcp chases can provide a good return though only 2.15 provides any qualifiers.

2.15 -- Grayed A or Finish the Story should win this.
I shall only be backing Finish The Story and will only include this selection in Totals as short priced Favs in chases will not provide a profit so there is little point in playing them. Some will say that I should use the Fav as a saver and that may well be so but to keep the file clean it is not a selection.

Could do with a thaw. Good Luck everyone

Well called re the Fav ironman.
Currently running Stakes -- 103. Loss ( - 5.13 )

More interesting today with selections as follows

Taunton

12.35 -- Overawed, Chilli Romance, Boutan
2.10 -- Relentless Dreamer, Sandy Beach, Timeforwest
2.45 -- Fidux, Here's Herbie

Doncaster

3.10 -- General Mahler, Doktor Glaz

Hopefully a few winners to get me back on track

Good luck

A couple hit the bar yesterday but as they say no cigar.
Running Totals --- Stakes. 120  Profit/ loss -- ( - 20.13 ). Anyway I go on

Leicester

12.45 -- Diamond Rock
2.50 -- Fields of Glory, Chasma
3.25 -- Du Soleil

Catterick

2.35 -- I Just Know, Golden Investment
3.10 -- Minstrel Royal, Astaroland
3.45 -- Calypso Delegator

Good luck all.

Nearly a really good day. A profit at SP of  6.25
Running Totals -- Stakes 135 Profit/ Loss ( - 17.88 )

Back tomorrow