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frog2
05 Sep 13 12:21
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Date Joined: 01 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 4,229 | Blogger: frog2's blog
The results are in for the first quarter after the sportsbook took the exchange off the Betfair front page.

Q1 FY14 Revenue £4.0m
Q1 FY13 Revenue £3.4m

So revenue is up £600,000 for May, June and July on the previous year.

To achieve this Betfair have thrown everything at the sportsbook

1. Management have been focused on it to the point where the CEO hasn't even looked at the affect of the Premium Charge on the exchange.

2. £5m was spent on April on getting 130,000 customers by buying bluesquare.

3. Customers are taken to the sportsbook confusing the them - a friend of mine stopped using the exchange because he cannot find the lay button anymore (coz he was on the sportsbook).

4. The brand is being destroyed. Betfair used to stand for:

    sharp betting
    flexibility
    liquidity
    value
        winners welcome

now I cannot think of a single unique positive way to describe it. The brand is being trashed in the obession to be like everyone else. What does the brand stand for now?

Looking at games they have gone from £19.8m to £13.7m. A massive decline with no Euro 2012 excuse. Another distraction away from the core business of the exchange.

.......

If we look at the exchange:
Q1 FY14 Revenue £60.0m
Q1 FY13 Revenue £68.9m

The revenue is down. The statement says that when international loses and Euro 2012 are taken into account the growth is a healthy 4%. This claim of 4% shows that even after:

1. Sending all new customers to the sportsbook
2. Confusing current customers with the new homepage
3. Having a clunky unorganised slow website
4. Leaving the Premium Charge in place
5. Making little or no commission adjustments to make football betting more competitive
6. Scraping any effort to educate customers about the exchange
7. Focusing advertising on the sportsbook

The exchange is growing and is by far the dominant part of the business.

1. Even after all the focus on the sportsbook and games and other rubbish over the last few years the percentage of core revenue has grown in the last year.

The exchange represents 76.1% of core revenue compared to 74.4% this time last year.

2. Overseas markets revenue on the exchange, particularly, has not fallen as much as expected. This shows that the product is more robust than sportsbook and games and need less advertising.

.......

Its hard to find a case for the continued attempts at diversifing by Betfair management. They have tried poker, social gambling, games, casino, lmax in the past.

They all confuse the person to person brand and have ended up taking up management time and have added very little to company.

Is the second tier sportsbook that they aspire to make Betfair really worth all the effort?

Breon Corcoran is probably the best gambling executive in Europe and you hear him say 'there are only so many hours in the day'. Almost 80% of his revenue comes from the exchange. Why is he focusing on the other 20%? Why is he so keen to develop a second tier sportsbook? Why sink so much time and effort into it rather than the exchange? He may not want to pay homage to the exchange but it is the exchange that creates the revenue.

Take away the exchange and you have nothing.

Take away the sportsbook, the games, the poker, the casino, the social gambling (already gone), lmax (already gone) and focus on the exchange and you will have a great product that sells itself via satisfied customers.

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Replies: 99
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 05 Sep 13 12:35
A fall in active customers from 554,000 to 530,000 is the figure that interests me the most.

There's been a 60,000 fall in 'Other' markets - those Betfair don't deem to be sustainable - and an increase of 37,000 in 'Sustainable' markets.

Considering Betfair had very few sportsbook customers this time last year, I'm assuming this 37,000 increase is hiding a substantial fall in the number of exchange customers in 'sustainable' markets.

This is exactly what I've been seeing.  Liquidity/revenue might be holding up but this is down to the large players betting more in fewer markets.
By:
hazel
When: 05 Sep 13 12:43
To add, former PR director Mark  Davies use to  promote the  exchanges "transparency".  Today betfair's transparency has turned more to fog.
By:
rcing
When: 05 Sep 13 12:51
yeah but the share price is ok , that's all that counts .
By:
hazel
When: 05 Sep 13 13:12
rcing yeah, but they paint a rosy picture.  When the fog clears will they be in full bloom, or wilting?
By:
rcing
When: 05 Sep 13 13:18
it was a tongue in cheek comment hazel . as in , so long as the share price is ok , who cares what the customers think .
By:
hazel
When: 05 Sep 13 13:23
WinkHappy
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 05 Sep 13 13:44
I didn't get where I am today without realising that a boat with a hole in will sink when it sets sail
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 05 Sep 13 13:56
I think the fact that games revenue was 44% more a year ago than it is now is a telling reflection on the brand. The exchange is naturally protected from competition, exchange games are not.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 15:27
How can Corcoran ( the so called best gambling executive in Europe) come up with any answer other than the seemingly obvious YES.
Does he know something that is being missed by all on here ?
I can't think what it might be, but there must be some reason that makes sense ( to him at least).
The reason can't surely be as straightforward or as stupid as a blind devotion to short term share price manipulation. Nobody is that badly advised .
By:
Galitzin
When: 05 Sep 13 15:30
Well said frog2. We can see it. Why can't Betfair?
By:
Compensation Year
When: 05 Sep 13 15:49
The mistake many of us make is thinking that because BF is a listed company (albeit pretty small by most standards) then the management of the company must be top notch and know more than us - even when the answer is obvious to anyone with half a brain.

Having been involved with a few large PLC's over a lifetime I can assure you that that is not the case. You only have to look at the mess the bankers have got us into over the last 15 years or so to see the sort of people who get to lead very large companies here in the UK. Fred Goodwin is not alone.......
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 05 Sep 13 15:54
Every Blue Square customer was offered a £25 free bet?  Be interesting to know how that is reflected in Q1 FY14 Revenue £4.0m.
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 05 Sep 13 16:06
CLYDEBANK29, and in 'active customers' numbers.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 16:51
I would think quite normally Clydebank.
That is the winning and losses would be recorded as such, and the 25 pounds would be recorded as a marketing expense. Pretty hard or in fact impossible I would say to breakdown from publicly available figures.
But no real trickery involved I would think.
You think differently ?
By:
frog2
When: 05 Sep 13 18:25
When about 80% of your revenue comes from the exchange why on earth would your home page send people to the sportsbook?? Seriously something is very wrong here. It makes no sense.
By:
frog2
When: 05 Sep 13 18:29
6% of revenue is from the sportsbook yet that is the focus of the business.
By:
hazel
When: 05 Sep 13 18:35
Frog you make sound and solid argument.  I suspect the management are aiming to change those figures so that more like 80% comes from the sportsbook.  It may be a case of heads down and keep marching on.
By:
hazel
When: 05 Sep 13 18:39
What's surprising is that institutional investors think they are on the right track.  They may be right.  But as you said, it would appear the original founders and supporters may have a different view.
By:
pmbets
When: 05 Sep 13 18:45
I see the demise of Betfair.I would not want to own this stock.Unless the PC charge can be scrapped this
is very near the highest the share price will ever reach.Most of us have been on here since the beginning.
The cost cutting has been the only real thing that have helped Betfair.The negative publicity it gains every day from it's
own customers against the winners tax will be too much in the end.It will all fall apart.I am glad I am all away from Betfair now and making a mint
at other companies mostly non bookie non exchange non poker.
By:
frog2
When: 05 Sep 13 19:20
I cannot see how those figures could be reversed unless the figures seriously dropped. Hills sports had a revenue of £116m last year and they are arguably a tier one player. Betfair only aspire to be a tier two player.

The exchange is making £250m is revenue with no management focus at the moment.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 19:31
Perhaps frog that is the key point from BF mgt's point of interest.
The exchange revenues are not growable in their opinion , and the revenues they generate from it will stay at or about this level you mention, without any need for them to devote mgt. resources to it.
It's seen as a core speciality product by them, with no large growth potential, because of either its perceived complexity, or because they don't feel the average recreational punter will ever feel a great need or attraction to use it.
You think they're wrong, and you may well be very right, but at least it may explain their apparent indifference to the litany of complaints they must surely be reading and absorbing on here.
They may be dumb, but they can't be totally deaf.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 19:39
pmbets

"---making a mint at other companies mostly non bookie, non exchange, non poker ".
Care to elaborate a bit on this.
Or at least give us a hint as to where we all should be looking to go forward in the hope of large profit expectations.
Or do you have it all to yourself at the moment, and understandably want it to stay that way as long as possible.
Would be lovely to hear from you.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 19:41
Btw frog, is your hair fine like mine ?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 05 Sep 13 19:42
I think your gambling brain may be a bit finer, that's for sure.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 06 Sep 13 11:29
FAFH, I've no idea what normally is but if normally means returns for free bets are written down as marketing expenses, but the initial bet that triggered the free bet is included in net revenues, then this is going to artificially bolster net revenues.

What I would want to see is marketing expenses apportioned (correctly) to the relevant betting division.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Sep 13 12:02
Even if i say it myself ,i do believe the exchange has reached absolute saturation point .  I think partly because of the money taken out of the pot by winners  ...(and the PC has never gone back into losers pockets or helped the exchange grow ,so no new trees planted to sustain the forest )
Also ,the money which was used by recreational (poor) gamblers over the years has dried up somewhat ,money hasn't been lent out ,people have seen their wages plummet in real terms .
  Degenerate gamblers always have ,and always will visit the bookies ...probably funded partly by these pay day loans and maybe  low level criminal activity  .
  So what is required ?   maybe an upturn in the economy ,or a new company taking the place of BF ,but what chance ?  . 
I'm guessing if BF were to advertise the exchange more or spend more time sending players to the exchange they would see it as short term gain only ...those players will eventually get picked off.

This is only my tuppence worth .

Desperate measures for them i reckon  .
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Sep 13 12:14
I suppose i'm being negative because of my experiences on here last 6 - 12 months , can't help noticing the fall off,especially the new season  .  (football) .

Trying to get bets taken at the right time  is becoming hard work even though the volume in ££ tells me  there is no change .

The bar has been raised - and as has already been mentioned , fewer rec' players ,more concentration of sharks it seems.
By:
stu
When: 06 Sep 13 13:13
Maybe there's a wiff of a change of heart - cf the front page format thread.

Though I've now lost it (somehow) my front page showed a new format with equal(ish) weighting for the exchange.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 06 Sep 13 13:57
I agree that the market is saturated and has been for some time, but plenty of people will always bet where they perceive they are getting the best value and service.  Where Betfair differs from bookmakers is that they are reliant on some clients providing better value and service.  There's less people providing this value and service as every week passes and this is the biggest problem imo.  At some point it might just all collapse.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Sep 13 14:52
people will always bet where they perceive they are getting the best value (and service)

___________

which i think is half the problem Clyde - too many on here know all about value
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Sep 13 14:54
'There's less people providing this value and service'
_____________

do you mean fewer people as in the gamblers ?
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 06 Sep 13 15:25
I mean there's fewer people sticking offers up for people to take
By:
Just Checking
When: 06 Sep 13 15:50
When people go to the odds comparison sites, is that price exchagne or sportsbook? I only see 1 price line for betfair on e.g, odd5checker.

Is this so ridiculous that people might see best (Exchange) BF odds on a comparison site, then come to BF and get the SB price?
By:
siwaadupa
When: 06 Sep 13 16:28
Good Job Frog!
By:
AyersRock
When: 06 Sep 13 20:42
If I were the managing director at betfiar I'd personally invite frog2 along for a meeting at HQ, you'd get a lot more done a lot quicker
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 06 Sep 13 21:05
What a pity that pmbets didn't feel the desire to come back on and elaborate on his somewhat juicy claim of making a mint elsewhwere.
Can't say I'm overly surprised though.
Gotta keep your cards close to your chest to succeed in this game.
But why then come on and say it in the first place ?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 06 Sep 13 21:08
The mgt of BF used to schedule meetings with "aware" players to get feedback and suggestions.
Do they in fact still do this ?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 06 Sep 13 21:16
Btw pmbets I'm not trying to "fish"  out from you any hard earned winning stategy, I'm really just more interested in the intriguing claim that you are making good money on sites that are non bookie, non exchange.
I can't work that one out.
What else is there in the sports gambling world.
Wait a sec, maybe it's not sports at all that you are betting on.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Sep 13 21:28
probably peddling his wares on e-bay  Laugh
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