General Betting
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I've only dabbled with this, but the idea is to back something (a horse mainly) that has been well tipped so the price will go down and can be layed.
So far I've not noticed a significant amount of difference but I'm wondering whether there's other factors involved?
So far I've not noticed a significant amount of difference but I'm wondering whether there's other factors involved?
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I wouldn't get too excited. by the time you've heard of the tip, so has everyone else, so any effect it might have (usually none) is already priced in.
in fact if anything markets tend to overreact to news in the short term, so unless you've been following the market you're as likely to catch it at a low point as to get value. |
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it usually needs to be tipped up by the ''iconic'' tipsters ie tom segal (pricewise) hugh taylor, henry rix etc ...the likes of templegate wouldnt cause a ripple
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read the formbook, you might find your own market movers before anyone else spots them
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thats not bad advice..quite a lot of the time, by looking at formlines and trends you can sometimes correctly guess the pricewise selections
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Haha viva el presidente, you might have hit on something there! Reverse psychology! Back the horses that haven't been tipped!
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I've gone down the road of trying to understand the form book. It's like rocket science! Usually when I see that a horse has good form I expect the odds to be low but they're often high. It's cos of the zillion other factors such as the conditions of the ground, weights etc. Phew! I really wish I could understand it!
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Sometimes tipsters have to nap in the most difficult race of the day E.g. Grand National, Cambridgeshire, Wokingham, its just part of being a paid employ of the newspaper whose readership want a selection for the main event.
There maybe people going the other way!.........tipsters almost always lose in the end and maybe people have caught on to this fact and there are people seeking to lay tipsters selections, keeping the prices high. Try prcewise if you can get on at best prices. His selections are avaible online free at tipsterform.com early on televised race days. |
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Reverse psychology............not scientific but I've wondered about p/wise, they don't seem to win so often, its my belief people are mostly trying to bag a big price in order to lay off at a smaller price before the race starts.
If that is true? what about the original favourite before segal puts his ten peneth into the betting market and given his selection. When p/wise selection gets backed in quite possibly the original favourite may drift out, could it then be value? |
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sometimes the most difficult races are where you find the value, there will always be clues in the formbook,
especially about the winner of the race, your usually looking for horses that are capable of winning that grade of race, you can forget about the favs most of the time in these races, because they wont be the value selections. price range will be between 5/1 and 16/1 in that price bracket. if a horse is not showing recent form, then must be another reason why you would be backing it, thats usually because its capable of winning that grade of race, due to the fact has been placed in higher grade races ect. pick any race card you want and always study the grade 4 races on that card, every grade 4 try and find the winner, then after the race write down all the winners of those races and backfit the results, try and find what they all had in common you will see what characteristics all those winners have, then you will begin to understand how the formbook works. horses will always be the most important factor, if you get to know the winners, helps alot. |
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95% ive ever lost on here was on horse racing its my belief its a difficult medium to bet on
maybe a good tip would be to concentrate on other sports as there easier to work out. Horse racing has too many unknown factors E.g. has the owner got his money on? and are their people laying it because they have inside information suggesting its got no possible chance. People will wax lyrical about the forum book but its my belief that its a publication inspired more by art than science. How come bookmakers are some of the biggest busineses in Britain, basically on the backs of profits on horse racing, if the truth can be found lying in these texts? (fobts are a fairly modern phenominum) |
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Thanks for your unbelievably good responses! Very helpful!
I've lost more on horse racing too. And Formula 1! My research continues... |
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sheppy heres an excerpt from a professional punters bio that i was reading..mike quigley i think....
What to do..... 1. Keep accurate detailed records. This is a fundamental requirement as it is so easy to remember the winners and forget the losers. Can be quite cathartic after a bad day. Try and update your records on a daily basis whenever possible. 2. Separate betting money from personal finances. Again this may seem obvious but it's absolutely essential. Imagine betting from a joint-account that's shared with the wife and trying to explain a bad day's punting! 3. Never chase losses. Never the answer. Remember there is no such thing as the last race, punting is a never ending activity of highs and lows on which a single day's activity should have very little impact. 4. Avoid "interest" bets. Very tempting when there is a high profile horse race or football match on television. Why have a bet on the Derby if you don't have an edge? 5. Learn detachment. Each bet is part of a long term plan and losing bets should not provoke emotional negative reactions however "unlucky" they appear to be. 6. Review your strategy. Which sports are profitable for you? If you categorise your records into sports and their sub-divisions (e.g. football: correct scores) this will make reviews easier. I review sport sub-divisions at least every six months, dropping or at least cutting back on areas no longer profitable. 7. Don't hedge unless......... the hedge bet is a value bet in itself. The most difficult rule to adhere to, particularly if you are sitting on a probable big priced winner. I find it very hard not to hedge and I believe this is the main reason I'm a net loser with Betfair. 8. Don't increase your stakes when on a winning streak. Treat every bet on its merits and not in relation to a current winning (or indeed losing) run. 9. Never follow tips. Particularly if the tipster is in some way connected to the tip, for example the owner, trainer or jockey of a horse. 10. Don't take short prices. Since the advent of GPT the professionals will tell you that 2/7 about a 1/5 shot is OK. But it's not for me, I seldom bet at odds-on. Further in horse racing I never take less than 2/1 about a selection. And finally never drink alcohol when you are betting as you will discover that some or all of the above rules will be impossible to keep! What not to do.......... Just for your amusement here is a parody of good betting practice published in a 2009 edition of the "Racing and Football Outlook" We thank that publication for allowing the reprint below. 1. REMEMBER that it's better to lose than break even. After all, this is supposed to be gambling. 2. DON'T keep a record of your bets and under no circumstances review your performance. Remember the only way you will remain sufficiently confident to continue betting is to shield yourself from the truth. 3. DON'T think of your betting as a long-term business. Take what you can get while the going is good. Be fully aware you'll never make it pay in the long run. Others might, but you won't. 4. ALWAYS try to smash your way out of trouble. Whether you are in a hole or on a roll, play to the death. There's no way you'll get rich sitting tight on a substantial loss or, even worse, settling for a modest profit. 5. ALWAYS carry out as little research as possible. A thorough understanding of the form book only leads you to the same conclusion as the SP forecast that's in the paper and what's the point of that? 6. DON'T waste time shopping around. A winner's a winner, whatever the price. 7. TRY to take careful note of rumours and insider tips. Face it, these people know more than you. 8. ALWAYS mix betting and alcohol. Betting is like a driving test or a job interview you will approach it with more equanimity, calmness of mind and focus after a few pints of strong continental lager. 9. DO have as many fun bets as possible. Games of chance such as lotteries and roulette let you pick the numbers you like without your judgement being clouded by statistics, form and so on. 10. ALWAYS back at odds-on. Too many horses get beaten at odds-against. |
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in the serious section of the above, i dont personally agree with 7 and 10, but its there as a guide anyway
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actually he doesnt also make a good point in 7 about only hedging when its value so i'll give him that one as well lol
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#does not doesnt
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Phew! Thanks sweetchildofmine (great song by the way and it's on the greatest heavy metal album ever made in my opinion!)
That article was really interesting! Hedging - the story of my life! Is it a good thing? Maybe but not the way I do it! I should go out and come back when the event has finished so I don't mess! The other day I remembered that I'd backed a horse but not layed it about a minute before the race! I willed my computer to boot up as fast as possible and quickly managed to lay it! And it's ******* typical that it won! If I'd had remembered only a few mins later I'd had been about £30 richer!!! |
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In answer to the following
1. Keep accurate detailed records. This is a fundamental requirement as it is so easy to remember the winners and forget the losers. Can be quite cathartic after a bad day. Try and update your records on a daily basis whenever possible. If this implies what I think it does namely that you should detail all your wins and losses, well if you are going to be so fastidious, spend the time researching and do the hard stuff you naturally don't want to because others don't want to either. Deatiling records is easy, but time consuming, and lures you into a false sense of security that you are being professional when generally it's just time wasting. You should more or less know what is profitable and what is not without keeping records of wins and losses. 2. Separate betting money from personal finances. Again this may seem obvious but it's absolutely essential. Imagine betting from a joint-account that's shared with the wife and trying to explain a bad day's punting! That's a bit pointless if as I do you rely on betting money for your personal finances. Important thing to me is to balance flexibility and getting the best rate of interest, although obviously don't use a joint account for betting. That would be particularly stupid. 3. Never chase losses. Never the answer. Remember there is no such thing as the last race, punting is a never ending activity of highs and lows on which a single day's activity should have very little impact. The only point I totally agree with 4. Avoid "interest" bets. Very tempting when there is a high profile horse race or football match on television. Why have a bet on the Derby if you don't have an edge? I'm not a machine and I didn't get into betting because I didn't like it. Just keep interest bets down to a minimum, but why avoid them altogether? You are allowed to have some fun and do them with bookmakers rather than exchanges as they will help keep the accounts open. 5. Learn detachment. Each bet is part of a long term plan and losing bets should not provoke emotional negative reactions however "unlucky" they appear to be. Why should you net get a thrill from a big win? That's the biggest buzz you can get in betting and why would you want to detach yourself from that? I once smashed up my chair with a hammer after a particularly unlucky defeat. I needed a new one though and it was therapeutic at the time. I agree that you should learn to be as circumspect as possible after a defeat. 6. Review your strategy. Which sports are profitable for you? If you categorise your records into sports and their sub-divisions (e.g. football: correct scores) this will make reviews easier. I review sport sub-divisions at least every six months, dropping or at least cutting back on areas no longer profitable. This is filler to make 10 points as, as far as I can see it's exactly the same point as made in point 1 7. Don't hedge unless......... the hedge bet is a value bet in itself. The most difficult rule to adhere to, particularly if you are sitting on a probable big priced winner. I find it very hard not to hedge and I believe this is the main reason I'm a net loser with Betfair. If you are a machine with no emotion and have mastered complete detachment then this is probably sound advice. I'm not. Sometimes it's worth hedging and giving away a little value to free your mind and on rare occasions where you have over staked on something, but where you done so deliberately, because you can minimise the risk by hedging on a partially related market, that still makes the original bet a value bet. Just don't do it too often. And also take the opportunity if it's there to do it with a bookie. Helps keep the account open. 8. Don't increase your stakes when on a winning streak. Treat every bet on its merits and not in relation to a current winning (or indeed losing) run. I'd say i'm generally a little too prudent and I'd have made less money if I hadn't increased my stakes after a winning run. 9. Never follow tips. Particularly if the tipster is in some way connected to the tip, for example the owner, trainer or jockey of a horse. Never follow a blind tip. A few tipsters are actually very good and mutual contacts can tip each other and share information 10. Don't take short prices. Since the advent of GPT the professionals will tell you that 2/7 about a 1/5 shot is OK. But it's not for me, I seldom bet at odds-on. Further in horse racing I never take less than 2/1 about a selection. I don't understand this at all and this bad advice. I back at very short odds all the time. If you were following a strict Kelly formula, which I don't, it would tell you to really smash them up. And finally never drink alcohol when you are betting as you will discover that some or all of the above rules will be impossible to keep! This should really be number 10 as number 6 is a copy of number 1 and then you have your 10 pt plan. I like a refreshing bottle of Budweiser when I'm betting now and then, but only one. |
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Thanks CLYDEBANK29!
Phew! The psychology of gambling! I'm a psychological nightmare!!! |
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I agree about "interest bets".
Quite often they'll be a sporting event on TV such as tennis etc. Now in the 80s there were a lot of people I really wanted to win. These days I don't really care! So, to make it more enjoyable I'll often put a few quid on it. All of a sudden these modern snooker people are exciting to watch! £2 for several hours entertainment seems good value! Ding Junhui can actually become appealing when I've got a bet on him!!! |
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Number 10 isn't exactly a deal breaker that invalidates the advice but its certainly a needless arbitrary barrier for a bettor to place on themselves. It even hints that the author isn't getting into a bet/position for the "right" reasons, 100% of the time.
Number 7 is strictly true but its based off a number of assumptions not mentioned. An example where a prudent bettor could ignore number 7 is where they have made a bet based off value and a later time in the bets life, has moved into a profitable position but no longer have an idea where the value is. This is similar to an arb. Anyone who has done a "proper" arb bet has technically invalidated point number 7 above but a perfectly acceptable response from the arber would be "I don't know which side of the arb represents value so why not lock in the profit and value that obviously exists somewhere?" In other words, if you can secure higher value on one side, in exchange for giving a smaller amount of value away on the other, its better then not having value at all on either. It doesn't mean number 7 is worthless advice, it has a lot of merit behind it. Countless times bettors will close out/hedge to stop the short term emotional investment which will hurt them a lot in the long term. Its just that its probably incomplete. In all probability this is probably for concise writing reasons then any blind spot in the authors thinking. |
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"£2 for several hours entertainment seems good value!"
Absolutely correct but the crucial distinction is that in this case, you are betting for entertainment purposes, not profitable ones. If you can afford to lose entertainment bets then theres absolutely nothing wrong with that but you need to separate this (in terms of your thinking, your records, your mindset etc) from the bets aimed to make a profit. This involves the bettor having to be 100% honest with themselves. |
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I do bet for entertainment purposes, BUT most of the time it's to try and make money.
I'll try and explain why I think hedging can be bad. Well it is the way I use it! I do follow a lot of sport so I've got a sense of spotting value. Now, if I put the bet on and left it, I may be in profit at the end of the year etc. BUT... I'll put the bet on with the intention of laying it a tick or so lower so I never get that much if I win. And the odds often don't go my way so I lose money. |
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7. Don't hedge unless......... the hedge bet is a value bet in itself. The most difficult rule to adhere to, particularly if you are sitting on a probable big priced winner. I find it very hard not to hedge and I believe this is the main reason I'm a net loser with Betfair.
-------  loads of reasons to hedge at fair value or even sometimes a bit below. not always, but so many circumstances where it's a good move. bit incredible that a pro is a net loser on BF, imo. |
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Clydebank is right. Almost all of that advice is bad.
It's quite hard to understand how an alleged pro would advise this: 10. Don't take short prices. Since the advent of GPT the professionals will tell you that 2/7 about a 1/5 shot is OK. But it's not for me, I seldom bet at odds-on. Further in horse racing I never take less than 2/1 about a selection. unless he's trying to scare people off and protect those short prices for himself. |
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viva i think i read somewhere that hes a traditionalist, bets primarily on racecourse and thats where he makes his money..having said that it did surprise me too
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Do tipsters bring the price down?
i bet on golf and there are a few tipsters elliott, racing post and a few others who are very influential (keith elliott changed the face of golf betting with his books ....) whether thats because of weight of money following the tipsters or because the books chop their selections just in case, i dont know. |
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i miss that damn book
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I have another question for you all???
Are there any tipsters that are really worth subscribing to? It seems like the best ones are very costly? My stakes are quite low (usually £2) so they'd have to be bloody good for me to make a profit! |
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Those who can, bet. Those who can't, tip.
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as you say sheppy the very best will cost you a pretty packet, forget about tipsters just try and find an edge of your own, its not easy but if you put the hours in you'll give yourself a chance
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Some posts I have read in the lasts couple of years:
1)Always try and attain a profit for the event before it commences. Outcomes of any sporting action is always subject to a certain amount of randominess and uncertainty the idea is to concentrate on trading a profit rather than outright betting. 2)Idea two was a quote borrowed from the stock exchange.... to buy on rumour and sell on confirmation. The rumour may leave you room to make a profit on speculative trading.........the confirmed news means you've already missed the boat and the value in the price has almost certainly gone. 3)markets in play have tendencies to overeact to events! Say when a golfer hits a shot into the trees the price on offer often rises considerably even though many times he gets away with it and even if he does get penalised one shot it isn't the end of the world . It is possible that markets are getting more sophisticated on in play events on Betfair, but its certainly worth checking out anyway. |
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number 3 is very true..too many punters assume a ball in the trees means a double bogey or worse...cabrera won a masters play off from deep in the trees
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moneytree puts his tips on the forum, he is worth opposing
there have been a few threads over the years based on tipsters selections, either backing or laying them |
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alan keyte probably the most notable..as for money tree its just uncanny how he does it
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one guy is currently backing steve palmers tips on golf, just hit profit on the season !
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Cheers guys, you're all very helpful!
It's great to be in the company of so many experts! Or people that speak a lot of sense anyway! I've actually got tips off Betfair forums and they haven't been much good. But, I haven't really followed them. It could've just been a bad week. Haha so moneytree isn't too hot then?!? sweetchildofmine - You could be right, maybe I need to do some intensive studying? |
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are they paper bets though or for real and is he getting quoted prices?
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oh dont worry sheppy there'll be one or two along soon to spoil it..hope you find what youre looking for (hmm theres a song in there somewhere)
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i think the bloke doing the palmer thread is working to best prices at time of selections and as he isnt restricted
to racing post advertisers is sometimes getting better prices than advertised with the selections. |