keeping notes

every year i keep meaning to, but never get round to it unfortunately

yes, I keep a notebook with ideas about trading strategies and analyses of markets and events I've traded. has been invaluable.

analysing fck ups is particularly important, imo.

sometimes notes on an idea of a betting strategy, which has always failed in practice

records of profit/loss always as essential to know where you're at overall. for me, massively down overall sadly...

I'm terribly lazy! Up until recently I'd not done a good job of recording my bets. I always thought that I'd keep track of them but I've realised this is not the case. I hardly knew whether I was up at the end of the week or down?

One thing I have started doing is taking a screen shot of the betting slip. This is with the bookies, not Betfair. This is cos there's been several times when I've not been able to see my betting history due to a site update etc. Plus, some bookies only let you see your history for a short period.

I always worry that it could mysteriously disappear and not get paid out. So it's good to have some evidence.

and think I can cope with all the relevant information from memory without having to make notes all the time


same here, but when you think back 20 or 30 or 40 years a few notes might help you understand why you did it

the flip side is of course that some things are best forgotten

thats it donny, its easy making notes when things are going well, but when you have a disaster day, it takes a lot of willpower to start logging it all down on paper

I have a bet ledger/diary that is hand written.  Simple jottings on the right with the result. Your 'abilities' start to stand out. 

The most insightful page is where I have a +/- for each team on how much money I made or lost on them recorded at LSP.

Example - last night I backed the Padres returning .90.  The flipside is under their opponents, te rockies, I also listed .90.  By doing this, I've discovered teams I can't read.  A few years ago, I discovered that the bruins killed 7 bets for me.  So I then avoided them.

I put this theory to the test by taking a bloggers results on baseball.  Whether he back, opposed or played the o/u involving the blue jays, he was 0-9 by the all-star break.

He had 5 more bets involving them and went 1-4.

That is a massive 1-13.

I also discovered he was 7-1 with the Rangers and 2-15 on inter-league. 

Imagine his bank and strike-rate if he put lines through certain teams.


This approach can be applied to any sport.   Check out tracks and distance at race tracks.

It is important to understand your strengths and weaknesses.

I find it helps to "deal" with a loss though if it's logged SCOM, but I see your point

Thanks for all your replies. I think I'm going to try and keep some notes when the football season starts again proper. I have always kept a record of every single bet I've placed,I  find this fairly easy to do on a spreadsheet and I sort of do it by habit now.

Think the point about recording profit/loss record on each team you've bet on is a good idea, although perhaps there's a danger you could read too much into this and be reluctant to bet on a team if you've got a massive loss when betting on games involving this team. Although this of course could indicate you've wrongly evaluated this team in the past and gives you a reason to re-evaluate your opinion.

A nice idea but how would it help? Could some one who thinks it
would help, perhaps show a working example, even an imaginary
situation?

well ken I made a note last season that you started a thread napping sheff utd at 2/5 at home to Hartlepool and they got turned over , and every time I refer to that note it brings a smile , so they certainly have value

Kenilworth, my ledger is gold. 

It's a/reflection on my abilities or where I don't read right.  Pontefract, my reads were crap, horses loosing by 6,7,8 lengths and ew's fading.  Whereas this winter at wolverhampton, if a bet lost, it was by less than a length so focus a bit harder and the money came in.

Mid june, I looked back through late april and found distances I was doing well.  Last 30 bets on horses, 22 paid dividends.

almost without fail if you read the auto biographies of the worlds most successful gamblers, they will tell you to always keep a diary and log of ALL your bets

By keeping a good record of my bets this year( and this is the first time I've done it at length) I have discovered that my best type of races to bet in are 2year olds and novice chases. In other sports NRL comes out way on top. I discussed it with a pal last night and told him that I would be backing only in 2yo races from today, the results 6 bets 2 winners( Lucky Kristale and Viva Verglass) £500 profit. This may just be a one off but I will try to specialise in these areas.

Steamship, take the money and run!
[b]sweety[/b], don't believe everything you read in autobiographies!
SHAPESHIFTER, you are rambling as is AMY.

I keep details of all my bets on a spreadsheet. The thing that really worked for me and my strategy, which wins by the way, was stopping watching all races throughout the day.

I don't find out until the end of the racing day how much profit I have made. Very boring throughout the day but 9/10 I have a bigger bank at the end of the day than I had at the beginning.

Takes away the emotion from the near misses and stops me wandering onto placing bets that I 'fancy.

GL ALL

AlwaysTravellingBest - I don't watch racing but I watch the odds as their running, and this can be very frustrating! By the odds it looks like you're gonna win, then it suddenly jumps up! Then back down again! I think it'd be less painful if I looked at the results after the race!

As soon as my bets are placed and they are off I simply move on to the next race, not knowing any results until the end of racing.

Never looked back

I do like that idea cos like you say it stops things from getting psychological! When it looks like your horse is gonna win it's SO frustrating to see it get beat and could affect your decisions on the next race.

Good luck!

Discovered in my notes....

Tennis....mens challengers....1st round and quarter finals, strike rate was solid including set betting.  Semi's, mediocre returns.

Roi since january around 40% so far this year with 5 bets a week

well done shapeshifter another positive for note keeping

backing only in 2yo races from today, the results 6 bets 2 winners( Lucky Kristale and Viva Verglass) £500 profit.

level stakes baking in Win market?

Sheppy - I enjoy watching the race aswell. I sometimes watch racing without a bet

Had £20 on both got Lucky Kristale at 29 on here. Not so good Saturday only 1 winner The Grey Gatsby my main bet was Our Gabriel 2nd. Sunday 1 bet 1 winner but short price only

Being able to reflect on bets - both winners and losers - seems useful on the face of it, a chance to analyse why and where it went right or wrong for future reference.

As my largest stakes now revolve around Test and ODI cricket, I was thinking of typing up my own reports of international matches, noting pitch conditions and the effect changing weather had on those pitches; as well as players' individual performances in the context of the game and pitch conditions.

But in terms of doing your 'home work', I find that most of the relevant stats are already out there online to refer to and as far as pitch conditions are concerned, the live TV and radio commentators and pundits are usually reasonably accurate if, like me, you are often glued for all 4/5 days of the Test.

As far as football goes, I did log my betting (usually Match Odds or Correct Score laying) over a period of months and I must admit, it made horrific viewing after a while. Too many wasted and silly bets, although I suppose it did focus my mind on the need to eradicate the losers and my least successful betting patterns.

With football, there are so many imponderables that can go against you, so many favourites overturned for inexplicable reasons (poor officiating mainly), that you will probably find that all your note-taking is rendered meaningless and can even muddle your thinking if you become a slave to it. A note made tomorrow could be irrelevant in 6 weeks or months time when a team has changed due to injuries, suspensions or transfers. Champions League games also have to be factored in in terms of how it will effect team selection for domestic league games played before and afterwards.

I went through a phase where I would often lay teams who were leading 0-2 or 0-3 away with, say, 15 minutes to go at short odds of around 1.10, right down to 0.02 and 0.01. Just picking random in-play games all round the world based on the low odds and time left in the game. It's amazing how many team throw away a two/three-goal lead. My biggest single win netted me around £600 on a South American game but other wins ran into the small hundreds. Very pleasing.

I kept a basic log detailing the date, game, odds, stake, win/loss and accumulative P&L, but there was no pattern to results. I'd win 3 games out of 5 in the space of an hour and then go 50 games (maybe 2 or 3 days) before my next win. It was all very small stakes for high reward, so no harm done, but there was no discernible pattern at all in my results. I trialled it for about 3 months and abandoned the idea, because I found it too time consuming being glued to the screen watching for late goals in in-play games when I needed to be doing my day job (from home).

Bottom line, keeping a basic log of your bets can't be a bad thing if it means you learn from past experiences, both good and bad.

As my old military friend always said: "Time spent in reconnaissance is seldom wasted."

Last night, I backed the oakland A's at home against boston.  I often do split stakes with money-line and run-line (-1.5).  My strike rate on GAMES INVOLVING OAKLAND is 4 succesful, 1 unsuccesful.

Of the three backing, all succesful but 'just' (all come from behind)

The other were opposing. (1-1)

Games involving Boston W W L
The loss was backing at long odds, they lost by a run.

Combined, they were one of three match-ups where my reads were strong so researched those games, ignoring 12 of 15 thus focusing.

I went in 80% stakes, no run-line on oakland because despite confidence, the games had been close when I backed the A's.

It took extra innings but Oakland 'just' won.

So GAMES INVOLVING OAK 6-1

BOSTON 4-1.

New from notes - when selecting oakland - last 5 all unders.

Sorry for the after-time.  Will try to post an example in advance some time.

But the main thing is I focused on three games on the day.

T

Sorry, stats wrong on record

Oakland now 5-1
Boston 3-1

Shapeshifter, isn't the whole 'striking' out full bad records considered back fitting in a sense? What if you're just having a bad run on those and it's about to even out or you're having a particularly good run on your most profitable ones which again will even out.

You need to diversify as much as possible IMO. What's profitable one year may not be the next and vice versa.

That's far too small a sample to be meaningful. I done the same analysing my football bets - you are left with; bet in this league, avoid this team, back at this price, etc. You are left with no turnover. Best to play to small profit margins (ROI) than try and find the magic formula. You cannot win every bet no matter how well researched and there is only so much you can get on anyway - this being the crucial factor. How much can I turnover in a year? This is the first question I ask.

"I done the same analysing my football bets" - wise words , elegantly written by the yorkshire thumper

This is a decent thread.......

In terms of notes , I probably do what some punters do, ie use spreadheet to keep a log. Im quite good with excel, and what it has done for me is identify area of football betting where I cant get an edge...

Interesting a few on here mention " psychology "......keeping some sort of notes like a spreadsheet does take the emotion out of it if you are prepared to accept that losing bets are an occupational hazard of gambling for profit. A key for me over the years I ve been doing this on here was to put in a " stop loss system " - this in its simplest form for me was to budget to a liability of no more than 2% of bank as a max. It defo makes the losing runs a lot easier to handle.

Although I agree with note-making, keeping basic records that don't become too time consuming and will help to minimise repeating costly mistakes, it's important to retain a sense of perspective and context.

It does no good psychologically if, on reflection and analysis, you 'beat yourself up' over every losing bet. Sure, there will be times when you look back at outcomes and rightly assess that you've acted like a fool or failed to do proper research.

But, equally, you can easily and often be a victim of a freak, unforeseen turn of events that has no bearing on your judgement. I've lost count of the times (usually in cricket) I've been on the wrong end of an historic record achievement by one team or player that no-one saw coming. Look how close England came to losing the last Ashes Test thanks to the heroics of a 19-year-old debutant who scored a record 98 runs as 11th man! And the record 10th wicket partnerships in the same game.

Simply by placing a bet, we are gambling and taking risks.

You can't win 'em all.

Jul 15, 2013 -- 6:27AM, CrowsEye wrote:

Shapeshifter, isn't the whole 'striking' out full bad records considered back fitting in a sense? What if you're just having a bad run on those and it's about to even out or you're having a particularly good run on your most profitable ones which again will even out.You need to diversify as much as possible IMO. What's profitable one year may not be the next and vice versa.

For me, it is cutting down on the 'noise' that clouds our judgement.  So, in the case of baseball (or hockey), removing teams that I have no pulse on is the first step.  Finding teams you can read, even on a short period then profit from is my focus.

But over the years, there are teams that 'surprised' me or killed my bets.  So why swim against the current?  I'm not going to bet on every team, every game.  Right now, one event with the possibility of one to three bets (ml, run line, o/u).

If I put a line through a team, then the only time I have to really think about them is if they come up against one of the four or five teams I am following closely.  As well, you can look at a game without betting on it.  For NHL, I will target two teams that are playing later in the week and will follow the two or three games they each play leading up to gauge their play.  Then, if I am confident in the reads leading up, the play is on.

A few weeks ago, I followed San Diego's losing streak of nine.  The tenth, against Colorado, everyone said they would win at home, etc.  I watched no bet.  I thought SD played well but they did lose 2-1.  Next night, the play was on at 4/5 and they won.

All about when to make jabs and go for the knock-out.

It does no good psychologically if, on reflection and analysis, you 'beat yourself up' over every losing bet. Sure, there will be times when you look back at outcomes and rightly assess that you've acted like a fool or failed to do proper research.


I defo dont beat myself up.....I think if you approach this with realism, then you realise that , for example in the match odds markets , there can only be 3 possible outcomes. I personally think there is a limit to how much research you can actually use in forming an opinion. There are all sorts of stats available on numerous websites, but at the end of the day its all about " do you think the odds are correct for what you believe the outcome will be " ....

I tend to look at opposing favourites - if I cant find a reason for doing so, I wont bother with it....

On diversifying:  I am betting on three sports:
Tennis (one to two matches a day)
Horses (two/three but more if I see the plays)
Baseball (one or two).

This seems to keep me on a steady course of focus without overloading on any sport.  Right now, my horses are a bit soft from some errors in my reads (post mortems) but tennis fantastic, baseball coming together.

So the ebbs and tides counter each other but it's nice when it comes together on all three sports.

What's profitable one year may not be the next and vice versa
I keep an open-mind but am really enjoying research and finding positive selections right now so focusing on bettering that.

That's far too small a sample to be meaningful. I done the same analysing my football bets - you are left with; bet in this league, avoid this team, back at this price, etc. You are left with no turnover.

I guess the analogy is 'McDonalds v a quality steakhouse'

If you want to set up hundreds of franchises and even though one is barely making money, go ahead.  If you want to go for 'the location' and have less clients but more profit, then that is the other direction.  Both work but it's up to the individual.


Best to play to small profit margins (ROI) than try and find the magic formula. You cannot win every bet no matter how well researched and there is only so much you can get on anyway - this being the crucial factor.

I take the opposite view:  I'm going into every bet with confidence on that my read has been done to the fullest then watch the result.  So the mantra 'cannot win every bet' doesn't exist in my world.

How much can I turnover in a year? This is the first question I ask.

I ask 'what am a best at and focus there.  How many bets at the end of the year, who knows.

I do 'target' a number a day/month  but this is natural rather than set in stone.  Tennis is a great example.  Look over the day's results and tomorrows match ups.  Then find two or three plays and if you can't select the one, go to bed and do it over coffee in the morning.

I think it depends on how much money you want to make to make the time spent worthwhile. If you want to make 20-30k a year, you need to be turning over 1m. If you are happy with 2 or 3k a year then there is no 'rush'.

priceless, thumper, our very own David Brent !

Jul 17, 2013 -- 6:57AM, I.quit.my.country wrote:

I think it depends on how much money you want to make to make the time spent worthwhile. If you want to make 20-30k a year, you need to be turning over 1m. If you are happy with 2 or 3k a year then there is no 'rush'.

So you are saying a 3% roi after commissions, etc ?!?!?

If you're talking tour-over and trading, a different subject.

If you're talking betting, which the thread is focused on, personally I would hang up my lucky pin rather than even risk any amount that had no margin for error.

And whether you're a weekend warrior or have ten plays a day, any analysis will return insight.

Keeping notes is vital depending on what you trade imo.

I have past football odds and notes on certain scores and how they trade from thousands of games.
Could not trade without them now.

Plechy good to see you still posting here

any plans to re-ignite your legendary Challenge thread at all?

Would love to think it could be done - 12 even money (minimum) bets, doubling stakes each time, to win £100,240 (before commission - but my resources are too low at the moment to contemplate it. Instead, I'm trying to rebuild a strong bank through cricket, hoping I can show more discipline and leave football alone.

That sounds very ambituous Plechy !! If you got to bet 11, would u have the b@lls to stick £50k on number 12 !!!

Could it be done?? Well its not impossible, but runs like that are as rare as hens teeth.....

I think we all have good runs and once in a whileI'll look over my shoulder and realize I had 6 or 7 in a row.

Could I slap down 50 k.......I wouldn't.

Then, again, I'm the kind of person that when the banker offered me 17,000 in the First round of deal or no deal, I would take it just to see how they'll fill the next 40 mi utes : )

Joshua: Yes, of course it can be done. I got as far as Bet 6 (after taking my original £20 stake to winning £1200) in my previous attempt but I frittered away a chunk of that bank on silly bets, so I no longer had £1200 to 'go again' in pursuit of £2400. End of story.

In terms of keeping notes, in this case I obviously did keep a record of those bets, which were mainly Test cricket and live Premier League football.

In answer to your second question: NO, I admit, I wouldn't have the balls to risk all of a £50k bank on an even money shot!

Anyway, sorry to have veered from the original topic.

Sorry Plechy.....I wasnt being funny.....

Some time ago there was a 1 goal thread which had been going for ages....I had a lot of fun on that !!

SHAPESHIFTER 17 Jul 13 16:29 Joined: 04 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 2,688 | Blogger: SHAPESHIFTER's blog
Jul 17, 2013 -- 12:57PM, I.quit.my.country wrote:

I think it depends on how much money you want to make to make the time spent worthwhile. If you want to make 20-30k a year, you need to be turning over 1m. If you are happy with 2 or 3k a year then there is no 'rush'.

So you are saying a 3% roi after commissions, etc ?!?!?

If you're talking tour-over and trading, a different subject.

If you're talking betting, which the thread is focused on, personally I would hang up my lucky pin rather than even risk any amount that had no margin for error.

And whether you're a weekend warrior or have ten plays a day, any analysis will return insight.

I'm talking about systematic turnover (betting). A 1% ROI after 10,000 bets/yr is a lot more valuable than a 30% ROI with only 100 bets/yr, obviously.

No, but 23% over the year and 1100 (3 to 5, 6 days a week) bets is

More importantly, a lot less time in front of the pixels.

you can easily keep your notes/betting record @ mybetlog.com

It's designed to do exactly that :) Upload P/L spreadsheet and whoaa the magic happens!

Sens talks sense.

Have a spread similar with all the queries though I first enter in a journal then load in every 20 bets or so.