General Betting
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Which is most important?
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Both equally important...... a sound staking plan is vital to sucess but you also need to avoid poor value selections in order to show long term profit.
IMO the most important betting requirment is discipline.............without this you are destined to lose. | |||||||||
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Pretty much the same as everything else in life.
Unless perhaps you are a rock star. Even then, the disciplined ones last longer. | |||||||||
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If you take 'any' price , the best staking plan is of no use whatsoever .
VALUE is all that matters . | |||||||||
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Been done to death this subject and I agree with Zealot, as
there is only one staking plan. | |||||||||
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Without value you will lose whatever your staking plan.
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cat, I thought ZEALOT already said that.
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Maybe the point is really that you can probably destroy a value strategy by bad staking.
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I said something different, kenny.
As frog says staking is important to keep a value strategy from going bust. Clever staking can increase the profit for value strategy. Ay system without value loses. So the answer to the op = "value" | |||||||||
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Cat
Are you really so absolutely sure that without value you are doomed, irregardless of your staking or money mgt. skills. I win and I'm pretty sure that I make an inordinate amount of bad value wagers, simply because I do not approach matters with finding value predominantly in mind. Am I just lucky then ? Have I lucked onto some form of subconscious value finding perhaps ? | |||||||||
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I know your answer I think.
Let me have a shot. Without knowing what I do how you can possibly say whether I am finding value or not. Correct ? But the point I'm really trying to make is that my betting strategy is not value driven in any form or manner. Pretty much the same as I invest in stock mkts. Money mgt.& spreading the risk, taking losses early, letting profits run etc etc. All pretty basic stuff. I mean I bet on football teams whose names I can't even spell, in countries I've never set foot in, with players from backgrounds and cultures I have no concept of. | |||||||||
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Why not try the roulette board, with better odds?
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Look at this woman at this time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kafRnGuCLEs
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Frog, I would say quite categorically that you are finding value if you are profiting long term. Whether you seek it actively or not is irrelevant.
It is theoretically possible to have a protracted lucky run just like its possible for a roulette table to spin red twenty times in a row but the longer you go on making money the more likely it is that you are finding value rather than lucking out, | |||||||||
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Well Cat I suppose it's all a bit of a non-argument really.
If you're winning long term, then it goes without saying that you must be beating the odds on offer and as such are finding value. But I don't adjust my bet sizes on the basis of any mathematically calculated value price. So I'm damned if I know how I'm getting the value I apparently am getting. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth I suppose. | |||||||||
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"taking losses early, letting profits run"
Both of these reasons are probably 'value seeking'. You take losses early because when they happen things are likely to get worse (creating negative value) and you let profits run because when a bet is in profit it is likely to get better (creating positive value). You don't need to evaluate a bet as value or not in order for it to BE value. Personally I think everyone who is in profit here either: gets value and knows it gets value and doesn't know it is lucky Here is how I see the answer to the question:
It seems easier to me to 'not stake too much' than to 'Get Value' | |||||||||
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ZEALOT Joined: 15 Sep 09
Replies: 4105 08 Oct 12 22:15 If you take 'any' price , the best staking plan is of no use whatsoever . VALUE is all that matters --------------------------------------------------------------------------. catflmasppo Joined: 12 Sep 10 Replies: 370 09 Oct 12 06:59 Without value you will lose whatever your staking plan Is what ZEALOT said and cat said, not the same? | |||||||||
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No, the 2 statements are completely different points of view !!!!
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does it even matter if they are similar? im sure the forum police will turn a blind eye just this once
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If people think the postings are different, that's
ok by me as I'd rather do something else. GL | |||||||||
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oohhh... i love a bit of pedantry
ZEALOT: VALUE is all that matters catflmasppo: Without value you will lose whatever your staking plan Is what ZEALOT said and cat said, not the same? Zealot says Value is ALL THAT MATTERS, catflmasppo says Value MATTERS(presumably amongst other things) | |||||||||
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You need a staking plan that will sustain your bankroll long enough for your value to show returns. A good staking plan with bad value bets is just a way of keeping you from going under more quickly.
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A good staking plan ? Is there such an animal ?
Please explain how it works. | |||||||||
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ratchet staking is as basic as they come and its easy to follow and makes a deal of common sense...
Firstly you should have calculated your betting bank (This is personal to you) For this example I will use £1000 So your first win bet will be 1000 x 3% = £30 This remains at £30 until your bank increases with winnings. In other words you only recalculate your stake once your betting bank goes over £1000 Lets say the first bet wins at 2/1, your new bank will be: 30 x 2 = 60 + 1000 = £1060 So your next win bet will be 1060 x 3% = £31.80 If you then get a couple of losers, remember that the stake stays at £31.80 until enough winners come in to increase your betting bank to over £1060 this time. The only time the stake decreases is when you take profits from your betting bank. Make sure you do take profits from time to time, but recalculate your lower stake using the 3% rule. Its that simple, but you will find very powerful because over time you will have winnings on winnings. It’s like accumulative interest, it starts of slowly at first but soon increases rapidly. | |||||||||
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basically if you bust your bank staking only 3% then youre in the wrong game
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FAFH : So I'm damned if I know how I'm getting the value I apparently am getting.
If you're doing pretty much the same thing all the time, it sounds like you've found a market that consistently forms at the wrong price, they do exist. Less than 10000 bets and it could be just luck though IMO. | |||||||||
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Kenilworth : Is what ZEALOT said and cat said, not the same?
To me it is the same yes, I was going to say the same thing too but in different words but there's no point :) | |||||||||
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Ratchet staking is ok SCOM but if you get a run of losses you'll be recovering the bank using lesser stakes than you lost at, which is not good.
Level staking is the best IMO, using a small enough percentage of the bank to not have to reduce staking during losing runs unless hit by a rare exceptionally prolonged drastic losing run. I use 0.2% of the bank as a stake, withdraw a wage every week (even on losing weeks), and increase the bank every 3 months or so, so yes ratcheting up but not based on short periods of results. | |||||||||
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I see cat used the expression ''clever staking''.
Please explain. | |||||||||
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It's gone quiet.
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Clever staking is varying the stake according to the perceived value in each bet.
Sensible staking is level stakes at a low percentage of bank. Stupid staking is high percentage of bank or varying the stake according to previous results e.g martingale All imo of course | |||||||||
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"Sensible staking" is "LEVEL STAKES"???????
LEVEL STAKES indicates that person BACKING that way has not much of an "edge".....and is a very crude way of backing.....IMO. LEVEL STAKES is good for comparison purposes if BACKING being compared between 2 people. Agree with your first sentence above CF  | |||||||||
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Well, 1/3 isn't bad
 I don't think anyone should look beyond level stakes until they have a clearly proven edge. Even then you have to have a really good understanding of where your edge is coming from to implement something like Kelly. I can often see value bets but quantifying the value is a whole different level of sophistication. | |||||||||
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Clever staking is varying the stake according to the perceived value in each bet.
Yes you're right of course Cat, but I find that the greater the perceived value the less you will likely get matched, which is completely normal and expected. DFC, I can't see that level stakes means little edge, it's just sensible safe and sound as Cat said above. The only way I could improve on my level staking is to get more matched on the greater value prices, but as said above the closer you get to the true price the more you can get matched, if you aim too high you'll miss the boat altogether. | |||||||||
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Rowing, sailing and yachting aren't main events for me, so missing the boat altogether isn't a problem.
Clever staking and sensible staking sound rather similar, but the answer is that to all intents and purposes, level staking using 2% of your bank is about as good as it gets. Fractional Kelly will prove more profitable if your estimates of your edge are accurate, but in sports this is not as easy as it might seem, and 2% is a good compromise. Remember, if you are not profitable to level stakes, no staking plan in the world can help you in the long term. | |||||||||
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Depends on your average odds range really cpfc, 2% would bankrupt me several times a year!
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 trev | |||||||||
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catflappo Joined: 11 Nov 11
Replies: 734 12 Oct 12 21:56 Clever staking is varying the stake according to the perceived value in each bet. Reads a bit vague to me. Varying stake, presumably increasing on the percieved value (upwards no doubt) seems more like common sense rather than clever. | |||||||||
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Correct but the cleverness isn't the concept it's the ability to accurately quantify the value.
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EXACTLY!!!!! Well said :)
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