1% road to fortune

Two poker sites used to pay 10% interest on accounts.

And on that subject, banks, is money safe in them when they award there bosses huge wage increase for screwing up the companies future and the world economies, "hot potatoe".

lori, poker sites charge 10% for all games so thats not a good example really.

They even paid it on winning accounts, Betfair charge 20%+ on winnings so it's a fine example.

You could deposit $10000 and play about $100 worth of tourneys per month(paying $10 in rake) and get $1000p.a

Still standing
11 Dec 11 18:34 Joined: 05 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 227 | Blogger: Still standing's blog
4 words, sort of.
Betfair greedy, PC bad

Pc is intended for the data hogs.  Charge them.  Leave 1 click bettors alone.  The 5% commission is what is supposed to pay for company expenses.  BF never contemplated bots and tons of data usage.  Things were fine before the bots.  BF does charge PC to little one finger users like me.  They have to expand their exclusion zone.

The premium charge has nothing to do with bots or data usage which have already been tackled by the transaction and data charges.  Pc is aimed directly at users who pay only a small amount of commission relative to their profit.  Of course, some of these may be bot users.

As someone who is prepared to defend at least the principle of the pc I am disappointed to learn that bff has changed camp again.

more people win on betfair, a recent report ststrted that in america they only have around 80 professional punters, well considering that legal squash poker sites and betting products other than the senators wallet filling casino giants, betfair has 1o time the aadvantage to gamblers that the american system can offer, pc or no pc pretty impressive stuff by betfair.

Americans can't bet on Betfair

betfair is the fresh air, oxegen rich to gambling online that america is the nerve gas too, if you wqant to observe corporation control that markists wanrded everyone about then cast your eyes across the pond, and no I am not a communist, just a realist.

They also have substantially more than 80 pro punters.

They must have more than 80, it was a terrible report, probably payed for by eight-eight-eight the only american betting company to gain exclusive rights to on-line gambling, casino owned of course.

*in the states

catflaqpo     11 Dec 11 19:15 
As someone who is prepared to defend at least the principle of the pc I am disappointed to learn that bff has changed camp again.

I will never agree with your stance on PC - but you made me laugh with this

Just need a contribution from FINE AS FROG HAIR now for this thread to be classified as well and truly ****ed up.

betfair will never work in the states because the american goverment never asking the public in the first place if there was a problem with online gambling put the ban in place with no public referendum ior concent, meanwhile its common knowledge that for many years big casino giants have blocked every other form of gambling off-track other than there own casinos and even own a lot of the racing tracks they install casino machines in and run it as a poor relation to there casino operations, even sposoring the demise of greyhound racing with there own web-sites taking part in the affiar.

Greed is the enemy of all cultures.

Just spotted frimpong loitering on the Forum.

one hopes that bookmakers are never allowed to sway power in this country the same way as casinos do over there.

power has to lie at the hands of the elected goverment and inline with common policies of fairness.

catflaqpo • December 11, 2011 7:15 PM GMT

The premium charge has nothing to do with bots or data usage which have already been tackled by the transaction and data charges.  Pc is aimed directly at users who pay only a small amount of commission relative to their profit.  Of course, some of these may be bot users.

OK Cat.

Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

We both pay 5%, isn't that fair ?  If the million maker uses way more resources then others, make him pay for the resource usage. This person may be running a 24/7 trading bot.  But, if this person is just a skilled bettor, why should he pay more then 5%.  Just because he paid more ?  Do millionaires pay more for a pizza then someone making considerably less ?  That millionaire will probably be paying more tax to the government, but we're not comparing the same things.  The PC is like a tax on the rich.  Why does that apply to BF ?  The more taxes rich people pay go towards the betterment of society, the PC goes towards BF only.  One day BF will get bitten in the ass for the PC.

perhaps fairness has to be looked at in perspective and relative to the conditions involved, charging is much fairer than banning and the only real alternative to a company that does rely on a fairness ethos to all users.

if you dont win mega-bucks then you get the best deal on the planet in terms of a betting product, if you cream off the revenues then you pay more for your easy-tax free existance in this country as a professional gambler.

seems fair to me.

Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

SS, I agree with your wievs on PC, but that statement is just ridiculous.

win the lottery in the great usa and straight away you pay 28% tax, over here we are very fair you dont pay on windfalls like gambling, these big bot operators are draining your cash away tax free, money betfair pays to get in the system via multi-million promotions and advertising.

how many bots are able to jump on board hms betfair, tax free operators draining the coffers out of all your accounts, now the tables are turned not just in betfairs favour but via service enrichment and company success back to all customers, case closed on the importance of the correct charging but not case closed on the arguements alas.

the arguements will go on and on, no doubt.

Eddie the eagle • December 11, 2011 7:44 PM GMT
Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

SS, I agree with your wievs on PC, but that statement is just ridiculous

Why is that ridiculous ?  Why can't everyone pay 5% ?  The PC is based on how much a person makes, how much he makes shouldn't matter, unless 'he' is really a resource hogging bot.  How about scrapping the PC and going to a sliding scale like income tax.  I believe that is what BF is trying to do with the PC, but their way of figuring it out is way too complicated.

Still Standing,

First of all you must realise that the charging structure is designed to maximise betfair's profits rather than to be fair.  It would be very simple to implement a fair charging system but not without hitting profits. Maximising profits isn't simply charging as much as possible it's about encouraging the kind of activity they make more money out of and discouraging that which they don't.  Hence the commission discount, transaction and data charges, and premium charges. All customers are valuable provided they are paying enough compared to the amount that they take out and the resources they consume.

My second point is that there are different ways of looking at fairness.  Before pc it was possible for player's A and B to both make 100k gross a year with player A paying 60k commission and player B 5k just because of their different styles of betting.  Now it's 60k vs 20k which seems fairer to me.

SS, it's ridiculous because a flat 5 % commission would drive away Betfairs biggest/best customers.

Getting back to Spalding... making 1% of $100 is one thing, making 1% of 10K is a very different business.

I struggle to make 3% weekly.

It's also still possible for player A to have $1m of bets and player B to have $50k of bets, and both pay the same amount of commission.

I'll always believe in turnover being the measure, not profit. It's not Betfair's business who profits (other than themselves, which is fine obviously)

lets face it, if the marginal excahnge model that we all enjoy has to find some dough to survive, better they take it off the super-rich winners on betfair that dont currently pay a penny in taxes, they can afford it, they could probalby buy us all a cigar on what they have made

Lori, is that what you'd like to see as a user or something that you'd take to the board if you were CEO? (or both [;)])

I bet none of you wont get a christmas card off any of the big winners on betfair even though its all of us that have
made them rich along with betfair supplying the market and services.

Got to feel sorry for the new lad who's started a thread and you clowns have hijacked it rattling on about pc......again

Both fwiw.

I believe it's fairer and more obvious.


In terms of how it would impact me, I suspect (assuming they did it to make exactly the same profit they do now, which the wouldn't) I'd be about the same off as I'm in the middle ground of position taking and trading.

It would solve the complaint that betting on longer events with more bets has less commission and would remove the rather arbitary charge currently in place.

Get in...

When the new lad wins 146 grand and they take 80 of it, he'll be interested in the debate

lol. good point lori, wheres froggy we need his posts to really skyboot this thread lol

I agree it is fairer and more obvious Mr Lori, but we the board want to know how it will benefit us.

I'm not a shareholder btw before anyone asks

It'll remove the perception that there are ambiguous/unfair charges if you start winning and it'll create a slightly wider spread for the board to put their own commission free bets in.

maybe SS should aim at 2% instead so that he may better pay the mighty rome in taxes

to say betair are only nippers in age compared to other firms, they do seem to have everything wrapped up.

When the new lad wins 146 grand and they take 80 of it, he'll be interested in the debate

fair point but can you see it happening?

just wish this site was as blessed with good data and write-ups as the racing post, surley the racing post is the best web-site for gamblers in terms of product service, i remember buying the first copy all those years ago.

Lori, your fired!

lol

has FAFH been fired? hes not joined in the great debate?

What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ?  Making 1% sounds easy.  It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that.  Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.

I'm over and out on the PC debate.

What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ?  Making 1% sounds easy.  It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that.  Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.


Totally agree with Still Standing. Exactly. I lost 4% of my bank today and I'm very mad. Making 3% weekly is quite difficult if you have a 10K bank, let alone a 1% daily.

There are hundreds of websites telling us how easy it is to make massive consistant profits form gambling, they also sell rocking horse chit and geniune santa clause beard clippings by the kilo, look how the internet has blessed us all.

I like being called 'the new lad'!!

I have no illusion about how difficult this seemingly impossible quest will be........but then life's difficult in itself

It is difficult because the system can only afford for a small percentage to win, therefore you have to be better than most.

Interesting observation I have made is that the market ladder as desighed by the betfair gods
works in special increments called ticks, now its no coincidence that these ticks are proportional to helping a market so that achieving sub 101 % over-rounds is difficult because the ticks are not small enough to enable closer matching activity, they are more biased at the favourite end of the market where the majority of the money is matched but the ticks are less useful at the other end of the spectrum.

My point being that if your risk betting( no resolved position, pre-result) you not only have
to take into account the commission charge you will be on but also the over-round deviation
plus betfairs cross-matching bot which forces wider margins between lay and back prices and why
it is so difficult sometimes to reach sub 101% over-round.

If your a newbie you may well be 6%-8% out of pocket on average risk bets when combining all
negative forces against you mathmatically.

Another great problem that most punters will be aware of when risk betting based on researching form implied edges is that its so hard to know if any edge yopu percieve is true or false.

To explain this dilema properley lets look at an example, the classic coin flip!

You are offered 2.00 on the outcome of a coin flip, heads or tails, now on betfair this might even be
as low as 1.90(taking into account commission) so straight away yiou are at a disadvantage.

You decide to look at the recent history of the results to find a trend and discover that of the last
100 flips, tails has come out 60 times.You decide that tails looks like a good thing and could have an edge so you decide to back tails for the next 100 flips.

What do you think happens to the account in the next 100 flips as this example fools the punter into thinking he has an edge?

What happens is as simple as this, imagine you have a sequence of data x amount long
the data contains either 1 or 0, equivalent to heads or tails on a coin, over the complete
lenght of x data both 1 and 0 have appeared on average 50% of the time becasue the data is quite long,
in fact as long as a piece of string()

Now if you take any small length of data say 100 units and discover a bias towards either 1 or 0
you decide to back this result in the next 100 units, what you discover is that the edge was false
because once you take the 100 say units out of the equation that have 60 , 1 results you must be left
with an extra 0 results in the remaining data in the form of natural variation minus bias sequences.

Of course most punters will say , oh my  research is cast iron or my system always works but does it really or has it only in the sequences they have looked at?

So the golden rule if risk betting is that you must find an exotic form and data profiles that escapes market interest unlike conventional form and data compiling that follows the market structure. Also these percieved edges of profit must be true or robust and not false.

most natural variation comes in waves, these waves may not have a defined height or frequencey but they will oscilate between 2 points on average, high and low, and observing any high sequence then observing the next sequence will deliver a low result bias.

ffs

IF you get in qick enough on a true bias you can still ride the crest of a wave

I sincerley hope jimmy that the ffs that you posted stands for  Frequency Forecasted Systems

or does it stand for the statement that is heard when applying cash into systems based on false trends

Jimmy has summed it up perfectly, you should go and lie down somewhere quiet for a while, bff.

I hope you base your bets on better information than you do diagnosing posters mental and physical health then

See what you've started now, spalding?

Look at still standing's and trader11's posts (some decent advice, sort of).

Good luck with your attempt, anyway....

It's the best I can do until you are wired into the api.

It seems like you guys go into this in a hell of a detail??!! Surely you can do all the modelling and trend analysis that you like, but if you still don't fancy an outcome to happen it wouldn't be wise to plump for that?

Hi spalding2011, I just waanted to bring up the major problem with all risk betting based on historic data which I have explained hopefully so as to be some use for others.

basically without boring everyone with data it boils down to this:

Most percieved edges hover around the 10% mark after charges deducted, most researchers may have noticed higher results but in practice these strike rates come down and lower the effective profit margins to around 10% or even 8% for the average edge.

So if you are up against say 6% loss in markets after charges then if some of your systems shall we call them are true(8%+) some are neutral (-6%) and some are negative=false(-14%) then you have to be very careful of which type of sequence you will return in all the combined types resulting returns.

a logical overview of the average chance of having a positive,negative or neutral retuning system over time will conclude that on average the majority of folk will be betting against the book over-round and charges, or big over-round if using bookmakers.

I can give you an average chance that you will have of being succesful at making above £250,000 in the future.

chance of making plus £250,000 on betfair overtime is 0.01 or 1 in 10,000.

did
u
make
1%
yester
day
?

another major problem with gamling is that it is much easier to be succesful in the very short term then it ever is in the long term so this induces a gambler to focus to much on an individual event!

bf_fananatic 11 Dec 11 19:13 

"lori, poker sites charge 10% for all games so thats not a good example really"

I have heard some stupid, imbecilic, ill informed garbage on here, but that is really up there in the top 3 (or should that be bottom 3) of the lot!

(It can easily be as little as 3% or even less btw)

Not to mention the ever impressive rakeback deals.

every popker site I have played on, on-line, you have to pay 10% on top of your buy in
£5.00 buy in plus £0.50 charge =£5.50 total, what on earth are you on about?

good luck spalding.

Thank you egner.

Its day 10 (didn't realise the community tab was a forum until the other day).

I am on £110.75 and target was £10.46........in the money!!!!

Just a bit of fun

That should read £110.46

does
anyone
have
the
patience
to
win
a
pound
with
a
100
bank
and
then
stop
till
the
next
day?

maybe he is going to fast at 1%/day growth, slow down kid and stop being greedy, try o.1% /day
and give us a chance to win something before you win that much you bring on the wrath of pc4
from the betfair gods

when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more

when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more

Same with me and many others its finding the time to bet.Betting on betfairs exchange
taxes one great resource besides money and thats time as although you can bet multiples
you have to monitor markets to place live bets, as yet there is no freely available
autobetting software to enable wider access to placing un-attended bets
and this is one reason why I am atempting to develop my own autobot
as even the comercial ones are not brilliant.

Took a bit of an educated punt on A.P. McCoy to be placed in the 15.25 at Bangor. Targets met up til and including Day 23. Next day of action will be Boxing Day.

Hope everyone has a good xmas and even though there is NFL games played on Christmas Day you can all put the lap tops away for a day to spend with family and friends.

Have a great one!

Oh so this is going to be an aftertiming thread?

Got ya.

hanging
offence
is
aftertiming

Spalding, you'll take some stick if you don't post your bets pre-off.

Just the way it is here, mate.

raspberrybottom......thanks for the heads up. Much appreciated.

I couldn't really give two toots about stick I might get on here. Just looking for banter, interest, fun and a bit of constructive conversation about all things betting.

Fair play to you! Good luck with this.

Well at least spalding is a realist as it always ilogical to post your selection on a thread pre-off
as if getting a negative run you get a drumming on the thread as well as a beating in the bank, ouch!

took a bit of a hit laying Kauto Star in the King George, but made some recovery with Spurs at -1,-1.5 yesterday. Hope everybody had a great xmas

took a bit of a hit laying Kauto Star in the King George, but made some recovery with Spurs at -1,-1.5 yesterday. Hope everybody had a great xmas

racing profit site

http://twitter.com/#!/@racingprofits

says on a win bet---stake 1% bank £200

yet said in 20 days doubled bank winning 5% a day

wouldnt that mean picking a 4/1 shot each day?or three 4/5 shots in a accum?

Winning 1% of your total bank while risking 5% of you total bank really means you're winning 20%.  Thats laying a 5 to 1 and winning every day.

thx

Wonder how Spalding's doing?