General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 352 comments are related to the topic:
have bots destroyed betfair?
have bots destroyed betfair?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 352
|
By:
How ironic is it that emulating the financial exchange made betfair and then floating on the real exchange may kill its liquidity in the end and sink it.
|
|
By:
live by the sword then die by it
 |
|
By:
bff,
For what it's worth, if you backed every 1000.00 horse pre off you'd make a profit, although I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for one to salute. Favourites that firm in betting have a slim margin of profit for layers. Then keep going up in price bands on firmers, then start again with the favourites and the drifters and keep going up to 1000.00 or the outsider. This is how it goes by percentages. |
|
By:
"if you backed every 1000.00 horse pre off you'd make a profit"
Is that really fact or just a made up stat? I find it hard to believe. |
|
By:
Why would I make it up?
What possible advantage could I get by making anything up, unless I'm just mean and nasty....which I'm not. I'm a market analyst, not a trader nor a punter. Reading the intricacies of the betting markets is what I now do for a living. So if you can go long enough to strike a winner - it's a fact. |
|
By:
Is that with keep bets on or off?
|
|
By:
off
|
|
By:
Interesting and a free bot strategy for anyone watching!
How far back did you go with the analysis? I did a similar thing a couple of years ago, took 6 months worth of horse racing data and proved that if you laid every horse in running anywhere between 1.01 and 1.06 you'd make a profit. Problem is that you have to get in the front of the queue to make it work, with yours that isn't an issue. You are assuming though that past results are going to be replicated in the future. |
|
By:
I did a year's worth of data and then did another year to prove it wasn't an anomoly.
I came up with exactly the same as you re the inrunning prices. In fact I came up with 1.03 and up to 1.06 gave better profit than 1.01. So it's got me puzzled why 1.01 is so loaded up early and 1.02 or 1.03 is left almost empty. Why not get in front of the entire 1.01 queue? But alas neither of the above strategies suit me, as I can't justify using up the bank when it could be used over and over generating consistent percentages. |
|
By:
I did have a fiddle around botting it but realised there isn't actually that much margin even if you get to the front of the queue because the value diminishes as you increase the stake.
|
|
By:
Its odds on that the boffins at BF know how to diminish the edges of the best players as there bots can counteract these players bets via price drift control, I dont know about you but I think the city slashing the value of betfair more than half is actually quite a wise valuation as its more apparent to the city that betfair cant feed its own engine anymore and is devouring itself.
|
|
By:
I don't know what bots you are referring to but if betfair have managed to incorporate mariokart features into the api I think it should be available to everyone.
|
|
By:
Any bot owners with stories of it going wrong and losing a few quid or does that sort of thing not happen ?
|
|
By:
I lost about 3k once on aussie horse markets. Betfair created the market with the wrong start date and my bot started playing a day early. Someone cleverly manipulated the market causing me to lay at a gigantic underround.
There was also someone who lost about 60k on a market even though they only had £200 in their account. Some unscrupulous bot-sabatuers knew a particular horse was going to be announced a non runner and backed the the field over and over again with this bot happily greening itself up. Until of course the horse was withdrawn and all bets on it voided. |
|
By:
Some unscrupulous bot-sabatuers knew a particular horse was going to be announced a non runner and backed the the field over and over again with this bot happily greening itself up. Until of course the horse was withdrawn and all bets on it voided.
Which brings up a very interesting point. What if someone is a stable hand and knows a horse is very likely to be withdrawn? Surely this opens up a whole area of legal precedence. Why doesn't this fall under the category of insider trading and / or obtaining a financial advantage by deception. |
|
By:
In this particular case it depends how they knew. In general you are right that knowledge of a withdrawal is insider info.
|
|
By:
Assuming it's not publicly available...
|
|
By:
So you were fair game for the manipulation Cat,nothing to do with BF putting the wrong date up ?
|
|
By:
Both, it wouldn't have happened if bf had got the date correct but it did expose some sloppiness in my strategy which I fixed very soon after. [:p]
|
|
By:
what i find puzzling is to why there aren't more bots trolling the quiet markets gathering all this value
|
|
By:
What would happen if the trick were attempted the other way round?
There was a Sandown NH Flat race in Nov. 1993 where an apparently unraced 5yo gelding called Sprintfayre was listed as DOUBTFUL in the Racing Post and Sporting Life. Down as being trained by Rod Simpson, it shared the same age, sire (Magnolia Lad), breeder (ME Gauvain) and owner (J Coleman) as a decent hurdler called Billy Boru, trained by Albert Davison. It was assumed to be a non-runner up until about 15 minutes before the off, when it walked into the parade ring looking hard-fit. The number board still had it as a non-runner, and it was only the next day that most people found out that the rider was Grand National-winning jockey Marcus Armytage. Eddie Fremantle and I realized what was going on, and our bits and pieces in the ring reduced the price from 25/1 into an SP of 14/1. It made all and won by 4 lengths. I just wonder how that situation would have worked on Betfair now. Would every back made before the announcement of Sprintfayre's participation have been a loser and every lay a winner? Or would every bet been voided? |
|
By:
Can that actually happen?
|
|
By:
Well it sounds like it did, Cat!
|
|
By:
Isn't there some point at which all the entries are firmed up?
|
|
By:
It did, catflmasppo.
It's hard to remember which bookies laid me the horse after so long. Dave Richardson was one (£1,000 to £60, I think), but it was the bookie who laid £1,250 to £50 each way who got really shirty, stabbing the Racing Post and shouting over and over again, "It said it's a non-runner! It said it's a non-runner!" "I know," I kept saying. "It's not right, is it?" as he counted out the readies. It might have been the bookie who bet under the name of Bill Papps, but, as I said, it's a long time ago now. |
|
By:
Being able to profit from knowledge of non-runners is down to betfair's stupid reduction factor system. RF's should be designed to map the pre-withdrawal odds onto the post-withdrawal odds (they should also be based on odds at bet matching time) but instead are designed to ensure the odd Ferengi doesn't lose out on the price of a toblerone. Another spectacular failure of the betfair bow ties (rotating).
|
|
By:
The men in the Press Box at Sandown were aware the horse was running when Fremantle went up about 15 minutes before the off to find out who the rider was, but all the bookies had the horse crossed out on their boards, and had to rewrite it when we pointed out the horse going down to the start.
Happy days.  |
|
By:
"So it's got me puzzled why 1.01 is so loaded up early and 1.02 or 1.03 is left almost empty. Why not get in front of the entire 1.01 queue"
BTO, i think this is because of non-runners, which automatically use a reduction factor to your laid price in the event of a NR (probably a lot of races if you put money up very early to be at front of queue). Even a price of 1.05 or 1.1 would get knocked down to 1.01 with a small reduction factor as low as 10% ... and you'd be at the back of the 1.01 queue. |
|
By:
So he was prepared to scam you by laying a non runner.
I very glad you hit him hard. |
|
By:
a
|
|
By:
Sorry, screaming, I thought you meant it had happened on here.
|
|
By:
1993, cat.
|
|
By:
Missed that [smiley:crazy]
|
|
By:
Bots are ******* **** mate I can't ******* stand them and they put me off using Betfair.
|
|
By:
Why?
|
|
By:
I find it irritating when you put up a back bet or a lay bet and a bot undercuts you by 1 tick and another bot undercuts that bot, so you go from the front of the queue to the back. You do the work by working out odds and putting up bets and the people who use the bots get value sitting on their arses.
|
|
By:
Fair enough, maybe an exchange isn't the best place for you then?
|
|
By:
I think the problem though, is that he's not in the minority, I think the majority would agree that these bots can be profoundly irritating. The type of people who post on this particular forum don't happen to be the majority though, they tend to be bot users and pc payers.
The real problem is that Betfair isn't a democracy, it's a monopoly. So if punters, position players, bot users, pc players and so on don't like something about betfair they have to put up or shut as there isn't really a choice. Betfair can do what they wish. Lori's idea about creating a book whereby it's very dangerous for a bot to undercut you is a good one, the problem though is if I create a book that's close to 100 percent but gives me a wide enough margin to beat commission in the long-term, it leaves me exposed to someone with inside information just backing one horse in my book and leaving me exposed on that runner. |
|
By:
Have Bots destroyed Befair ?
NO .. Why a Bots dont have a Brain like us humans think about it who built a BOT not a BOT but a Human .. they have no sense of feel no sense of smell never be in love no family need i go on bring on the Bots only thing they know is to provide liquidity in the market. Here's a fact they don't know why they provide liquidity cause they're programmed - bot my backside |
|
By:
Mythical prince, Betfair use Bots themselves "where there are gaps in the market". The reason there is not many bets being placed or laid in those markets is probably due to these bots being used in the first place, as it puts people like myself off using them. So instead of trying to make a quick £2, they are more than likely losing a much greater sum in commission.
|