Trading horses - any advice?

Hmm. No replies. Not sure that anyone is interested - but today was much better again. One losing race but £2.21 profit off £2 stakes. Very obviously not cracked it or anywhere near. but I might be learning lessons and moving in the right direction.

Sorry - don't pay PC right now. Which seems to be the main topic on this forum. Any help for someone starting out would most gratefully be recived.

wow a lot of newbies posting on the general forum the last few days... Did you try the horse racing forum???

top right hand corner

little x

click on that

and don't return

best free advice EVER

this 'game' ain't for you!

Well at least those are responses. You may well be correct - this game may not be for me. But it would be helpful if you could say why. That is what I'm asking.

Posted this on GB because I'm thinking of another strategy in another sport. Similar considerations likely to apply.

no one wins on the nags

Best advice I've had so far. Correct scores then (pre-match)?

horses to footy now?

lay to back? how will that work?

£2 stakes. Trying to learn without losing £1000s. Realise that playing in a live market is very different to paper trading. Expertise is football - but looking at which markets are more/less efficient. Realise completely that I may not know enough,but prepared to lose an amount of money I can afford to find out. Just looking for some help.

I would not use stop losses. You just open yourself to losing money to spoofers. Take small bets that you think are value using your own judgement of the event and if they become no longer good value then close them.
Normally this would be at a profit. The only reason to take a loss is if something definite has happened that you think the market has underreacted to. For instance in cricket you might lay the draw at 3.0 and then the weather changes and you think that it is now very probably going to be a draw, but the odds are still 2.0, then you are justified to "red up" and take a loss.
Do not take a loss unless you have definite information that makes you reconsider your initial view. Take small enough bets that you can afford to run them and take the loss if necessary.

Thank you Getting Better. Useful information - and I appreciate you taking the time to give me an example. GL

sorry bud. just realised my stupid comment. i must be more tired than i thought. good luck

I'll give you a counter-example for why you don't want to use stop losses. Sometimes you will find the same trainer has 2 or more decent horses in a race. Almost invariably one of these "drifts", i.e. the odds start to get better. Everyone thinks the trainer "knows" that one of his horses is fitter than the other and wants or expects the other to win. In racing because there is a certain amount of inside information, but people think there is a lot more than there is.
So you back the horse that drifts with the same stable as the favourite, if you stop out that bet at a loss you'll be surprised how often you're wrong and the less fancied horse wins.
The trainers do not know how well their horses will run, they know more than you to be sure. I once overheard a conversation with an owner and a trainer, the trainer who was a very nice and honest man was saying he was not 100% sure the horse was fit, although he said he thought it probably was else it would not have run. He was very cagey about the horse's chances. The owner had been going to back it, but he didn't, anyway the horse won!
I was very tempted to ring up betfair and lay the horse but I did not because I thought that was a bit unethical, good job I didn't!

Slt, in all honesty, it doesn't sound as though you've been betting long enough to come to any conclusions at all. As far as I can see, you've had two days of betting and you're already pondering whether you're moving in the right direction.

At this early point, dispel any thoughts of whether you're 'cracking it'. For the next few days, just place tiny bets. Better yet, don't place any bets at all. Simply make a note of your pick in each race and write down the price that you would have got. When you've made a decent profit over the course of several days, you might want to put real money (but still small stakes) behind it.

If you're doing the horses, you should probably be spending a lot of your time reading past race results. Take the top two finishers and then look at their form coming into the race and compare it with that of the other horses. Look at every aspect of the form and ask yourself where the top horses appeared to have an edge over the other runners? How could you have known they would be strong contenders before the race started? If you spend a lot of your time doing that, you should start to get an idea of what's important in a winning horse.

Bear in mind, as well, that a lot of races will always remain hard for the majority of us to decipher. Over a 7/8-race card, you should be looking for just one or two races where you can bet with conviction. Many people like to play race after race, but it's very hard to be profitable unless you're selective.

By the way, this game needs a lot of patience and hard work. If you're of the opinion that it's going to take you a few weeks to become a strong player (and most newcomers do seem to think this way), then you should drop that notion right now.  Your early training really should be all about reading as much form and watching as many races as possible, and asking yourself how you could have found the top finishers in each case.  Later on, you'll want to concentrate more on whether a horse's price is giving you good value or not (most obvious winners will be poor value), but for the time being you just want to get an idea of why some horses will win a race and most won't.

save your money , only just over 2% winners on here . You wont listen though will you ?

I guess that 2% never listened either, page-413.

You sound as if you will just be trading horses on the numbers, if so then you are almost certainly going to fail as you will never get past the usual sequence which is:

win small, win small, win small, win small, lose big - repeat

The problem being the races you lose on will wipe out the small cumulative winnings you have from the other races.

Add in the risk of site or equipment failure or just the inevitable temptation to let a bad position go in play and you are just sitting at your screen dodging bullets all day.

There's nothing to stop him, apart from his own emotions, going
small loss, small loss, small loss, small loss, big win-repeat

His big winners wiping out his small losses from previous races.

Having adequate cover with other exchanges/books, back up ISP and not getting into a position where he gets into a situation where he lets a bad loss go in play and letting a big pre race green go in play because the odds dictate he should.

The cutting losses quickly and letting profits run is often used but is, from a human emotions point of view, difficult to do.

Thank you for these helpful responses. Much food for thought there. Lord Bobbbin - I have 'paper traded' for several months before placing a bet. What i've found is that (firstly) attempting to get bets matched in fast moving markets is much more difficult than I would have imagined paper trading and (secondly)emotions take over more than I imagined when playing for real money - even really small stakes. It's obvious that I have much to learn - and your helpful post (and those of others) are helping point me in the right direction.

The other thing I should say is that I'm new to trading but not to betting (several years experience just not on BF). I have a steadily profitable strategy elsewhere but it is limited - not by liquidity but by opportunity. Sorry to be cryptic but you may be able to read between the lines of that... Thing is I realise that strategy will stop being profitable one day. So I want another string to my bow. The way that I look at it is if I play for minimum stakes from a small bank then one of two things will happen. Either over time my bank will disappear = in which case fair enough I've not got what it takes so I move on. Or I break even or make a modest profit which I can build on, possibly learning a skill I can use for many years. I definitely do not look upon this as a get rich quick scheme - I realise how hard it is (2% winners) but I'm prepared to give it my best shot.

The posts I have had have been really helpful - any further thoughts very gratefully received.

Vis/buzzer

Implied in your posts is whether or not to use stoploss. Another way is double your position at what appears to be the bottom of the market. Trouble is - when do you know you've reached the bottom? Have tried this a few times. Succeeded most times - redded out for far reduced loss or even minor profit. But when it's gone wrong i've found myself in trouble - even having identified what seem to be the resistance points. This approach seems to me to be doomed to failure. Seems to me the small loss, small loss, big win scenario is more likely to pay off long term. Thoughts?

The best way to learn to trade the nags is to start with the big prices in large field maidens both UK and Irish (always remembering to back 1st) these outsiders in maidens jump around enormously in price in the 150-1000 range.  Then work your way down in price to the mid range and eventually to the short prices.  This is what I am curently doing myself.

Good points Cardinal. If it was me, though, I would concentrate on laying the favourite. That gives you a focal point, and you can use the favourite as a measuring stick for the entire field. What factors are in the fave's favour? Which ones go against him? How many other horses have the possibility of beating him?

While you can't assume a favourite is overbet, the typical punter who doesn't have a firm fix on the race (and they're essentially the ones you want to be taking advantage of) is far more likely to place his money on the favourite than on any other horse in the field. Particularly in the final minutes before the race goes off, there's every chance there'll be too much money going on the fave. And in any 8-race card, you'll probably find two or three faves who are sent off at prices that don't reflect their true chances of winning.

You've got to view it over a number of races - Think, if I was to back this horse at these odds, would I expect that horse to lose or make me money over 10 races?  However, if you're careful, there are definitely a decent number of mispriced favourites. And determining whether the fave is mispriced or not is probably going to be an easier task at first than finding the value horse in a field of 12 or 15.

Lord Bobbbin - helpful advice again. i was watching the favourites prices today (but not acting on them). Noticeable that they came in massively on the last few races. Punters chasing losses? Suggests some value there - but as you say, much more research needed. And I'm up for that. That's how I've made my modest football profits.

Thanks Slt.  It's certainly tricky, and a case of feeling your way in - it's very easy to watch a series of favourites getting beaten, and then wade in with your own money just as a sequence of short-priced winners kicks off! - but there are definitely possibilities.   

And you make a very good point when you suggest that the punters are even more likely to be lumping on after they've been stung by a big favourite going down. I know to my own cost that a chasing punter is rarely thinking rationally.

Good luck!

Steady progress. Five consecutive winning days. A few scary positions. Think that I may be letting losing positions go too far - but more importantly trading out of winning positions too soon. Also stopped entering the market too soon  -very tempting though when you think you see the trend.

Good to hear you're still above water slt!     What markets do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

Flat races - favourite greater than evens but avoiding races where,say, there are three joint favourites priced at 5 or thereabouts. Eight or more runners. Under evens looks like shark infested water to me at this early stage. Watching for the prices to come in suddenly without any obvious reason for doing so - although obviously I will be missing things at this stage. Trying to oppose punters lumping on in the last five minutes before off where I suspect that the downwards movement is excessive. Always red/green out before off. (Don't think I'm giving too much away there - since I am very far from expert and may be misreading totally).

In football season it's correct scores in running - hence my post above - but I'm afraid I'll have to be a bit more circumspect about my strategy. few enough opportunities for me to find value.

I see. So you're trying to trade the momentum coming into a race, and then attempting to close the position just before the off? Your strategy does seem to involve a lot of trying to interpret what the crowd's thinking, which I'd imagine is never an easy thing to get right - even with lots of experience - and could lead to a fair amount of frustration.

Are you keeping records of how you'd be faring if you simply left the positions on and let the races run through to their finish? Personally, I'd find it less scary if I was trying to base my picks more on something tangible - such as the form of the horses - rather than the rather fickle pyschology of the crowd. (It's certainly smart to look for races where the public are pushing the price down a bit too much, but I still think I'd find it difficult to have any sort of confidence in my pick unless my primary reason for laying it was that its form failed to justify its odds.)

Fatal really my previous post. Small loss today. But redded out sensibly. Watched the prices go further away once I was out. I almost feel good about it - up over the week and learned to take a loss. hard when there are seconds left and you're all red - but I got a freeish lesson that that was the thing to do. Obviously need to improve the analysis - but that's why I'm using the £2 stakes. and will continue doing so until I have some confidence thta I know what I'm doing. May take a long time - but I'm in this for the long run.

lord Bobbbin - thanks for your support. You probably have forgotten more than I'll ever know. Appreciate your input very much

Lord Bobbbin. Yes I am keeping records. That's how I found my correct scores strategy - paper traded enough alternatives to know that they didn't work. I've noticed that my lay bet is consistently below BSP - I'm waiting for downward surges in what appears to be races where the favourite is overbet by a fair degree. And then trading out. I (think that) I understand what you're saying - would I be better to let it run. On my small sample, yes. But prepared to keep £2 trading until some sort of more statistically significant trend emerges. I'm hoping that patience, caution and study will be my friend.

dont assume correct score trading doesnt work, there are two scores in particular that can be successfully traded 19 times out of twenty pre match

Thank you. Sweetchild. I won't ask you to reveal. (But 0=0 and 1-0 to favourites?) I presume that this is a successful strategy for you. Mine is an in-play strategy - doesn't appear that often but is a steady earner.

Tough day today. Broke even but it took a lot of work. Stuck to £2 stakes and no chasing. Redding up three consecutive races was quite demoralising. But finally got the big win towards the end of the card. Can't believe how much is bet on favourites on a Saturday - and looking at what I'd laid I would have only laid one winner and that just over evens. Saturday may be a tough day for this strategy - looks like punters back favourites at any price. Would love to see some stats analysis on this.

If you know on a Sat punters back favs at any price then that is the only day you should be trading

STATS re favourites ....check link ( not sure if "CUSTOM REPORT" still works though?)

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php

So we know 35% of favs win and you would be well down backing them all in the long term.

How does that help this trader?

Hi slt2005, Good luck with the trading. It is not for everyone but if you don't have a go, you don't know. Some people are good at it and some aren't.

I think some of the posts above don't know much about trading as they are saying to study form, or whatever, but you don't need to know anything about a horse (or whatever) to trade. I have no idea about which horse might win, or should win, and I don't care which horse wins. As long as I can lay it at a lower price than I've backed it for, I'm happy.

The point of trading is to make money in the long term not just after one race or one day but over a series of days/weeks, etc. I know it is hard (and I still do this) but you have to RED UP ASAP and don't hope the price will come back to you (because it often doesn't). There will always be another race come along where you can make a smallish loss back just in one race.

I could go on all night here (in OZ) but most people will get bored.

One more thing though, depending how big your bank is, if you are starting with small stakes then I would back first whenever possible and then lay. This way you will only lose your stake should something unexpected happen whereas if you are laying first then you would be exposed to a lot higher liability than 2 pounds.

I hope that makes some sense.

The Vis - even I know that's not the way forward. Just an observation - based on very little stats. When there's been a number of outsiders win on a Saturday backing seems to get (even more) irrational on the last races of the day. Not something I'd act on on this stage.

Ocho - wise words indeed. The next thing I need to develop is the ability to red up early but also know when to let a winning position develop and green up at the right time. out of interest - do you trade UK races (I assume that would be the middle of the night for you). Very grateful for any further thoughts from you.

Better today. Prices a bit more stable. I felt more able to take my time (albeit a few seconds) to read the market. Traded five races and green on all of them. Only time I was in danger was on the last - but even then the maximum red was one third of the cumulative profit for the day. Question for me is whether I'd have redded out on one more tick against - I'd like to think that I would. But that's what I need to work on. Looking at the bigger picture, redding up after a pre-determined number of ticks allows you to re-enter the market later, once you've re-read it, to recover a small amount. Over time reducing your losses marginally in this way seems to me to offer a better chance to achieve a long term profit. Just need to make sure that the reddouts do not outweigh the greenouts (in magnitude at least)

I must confess something here and now to you slt2005, I can't trade the UK horse racing . I'm not sure if it's because I'm in Oz and the internet is slow for the UK races or the amount of money being bet on the markets just moves the markets too quick for me (probably both) I just can't win there.

I think it may have something to do with the speed thing because the Ozzie races I don't seem to have any problem with. If I need to scratch a trade when I see some big money come in one or two ticks on the other side I can usually do that with no problems on the Oz races. But, there again, the volume is lower than the UK.

I usually single tick trade on the Ozzie races on a Saturday afternoon and sometimes on Sundays. Doing the same on the UK is a killer for me. I have tried to trade the UK races late on a Friday or Saturday night (if I've got nothing on [;)) as they start about 11PM when there is no daylight savings here in winter. 

With the UK races I have tried trend trading and have fared a lot better. I look at the charts on The Geeks Toy and basically place my first trade when there is a breakout on the chart. You probably don't believe this but it is amazing how often the price will move at least the amount of the high/low point of the recent previous movement on the chart.

For instance, say the price of horse X has been hovering between 5 & 6 ($1 difference in my currency). A break above will result in the price going to 7 (and sometimes 7+) and break downwards and the price can go to 4 (or under). I still haven't really worked out a stop loss but it should be if the price quickly moves back to under 6 (say 5.8) or above 5 (say 5.2).

This even seems to work when you think there is no way this can happen - like a 12.5 horse coming down to 10 and then going down to 7.5 (a big steamer).

Like I said previously, just try it out like you're doing with small stakes. If you get good on the UK markets the world is your oyster (or at least until you win too much.[:(]

Good Luck [:)]

any updates?

slt2005, How are you going?

I don't know any   profitable traders who learned to trade by following strategies learned on this forum.

You will only learn if you discover for yourself.

Go elsewhere to seek the knowledge, time is too precious to waste looking for the path on here.

Turn over your own stones.

Was on holiday last week so away from the forum. First day back was today. Traded five races, all for a profit. The last looked like I'd have to red up for a very small loss but achieved a small profit instead at the end. Still think I'm entering the market too early - waiting another minute or so would have seen the market go the way I thought, although getting matched for my entry bet may have been much more difficult. Recognising races where I don't want to go in a bit better too - or where the market has changed in a way that I wouldn't want to enter. Still much to learn - but at least I'm doing this without losing my bank.

Thanks to other posters for the encouragement.

slt - what is the average book % on the markets where you are successful.

IE, the over round.

I've been looking to pre-race horse trading to fill the gap left by the football off season, and like you slt2005 i'm feeling my way in.

I can understand both points of view put forward in this thread. Some have said that you won't get anywhere without knowledge of racing and study of form etc, others have said it's all about the numbers and you can trade with little knowledge of racing. Whilst i think it's pretty clear that you do need some knowledge of horse racing to be a successful trader, the last 10 mins leading up a race seems to be more of a game than anything. Horses that look to have a good chance drift massively and then go on to win, and massive steamers completely flop. And the price swings are big, fast and often unpredictable.

It's not easy, but i have good discipline which helps. The wait for the new football season is killing me!

GL with your trading.

If you think it is"pretty clear" then I assure you it will be a loooong time before you make profit in this area.

Fair enough, you've obviously found something i haven't, and i don't think i'll be spending the time looking for it unless it appears in the next 3 weeks.

Thebert, I'm not sure what Ocho is doing is really focused on whether a horse is going to win or not. It just seems to be about backing at one price, and then laying it at a better price before the race starts. If you can do that regularly, taking advantage of late betting momentum, I suppose it ought to be possible to make some good green.     

Like you, it does seem to me to be a little bit of a game. Before I got into horse-racing, I used to trade the Forex markets, and if I wanted to spend my time sitting in front of charts I think I'd probably stick to the currencies. I suspect, like me, you're thinking mostly about the form and the value of the horses, and perhaps using the last few minutes of the betting window to see if you can get a little extra value, taking advantage of bridge-jumpers putting on money stupidly. That makes sense to me, but clearly Slt and Ocho have very different views and are primarily trading the momentum.

Hey guys. I definitely don't give a continental which horse wins as that is not what trading is all about (in my opinion). Just doing what LordBobbbbin says - backing it at one price and laying it lower and then greening up.

The Forex market would be good if you have the cash. If you don't then BF trading is perfect. [;)]

Actually, depending on how you want to do it, you can do Forex very cheaply. You have to be a bit careful with some of the bucket-shops out there, but I always found Oanda a workable platform for my modest needs - you can plunge with pennies if you wish... Metatrader 4 is a very solid free charting package. Use a few moving averages, draw a few trendlines, note down the swing-highs and lows and you've got a chance. Global-view is a pretty decent forum too.

Bung it on

Overrounds were 103,102,100,101 and 103. Sorry to be thick but can you explain the significance of this. What should I be looking for? Have I picked 'good' races or 'bad' ones?

slt - you are not thick you are learning. My 6 year old little girl can count to 100 in tens.  She knows if she stops at 40 there were another 60 she didn't count.
But... she can't yet see how if I owe her Mummy 60 pence and give her a 1 pound coin, I should get 40 pence in change (even though she can tell me that there are 100 pence in a pound).

If you study the over round thoroughly(dare I say obsessively),in relation to different class of races etc. you will realise more about entry points than any one other single factor.

This is the closest you will ever get to discovering the Golden Goose. Esp on this forum. If you do, you will be way ahead of the crowd because people are generally too lazy to put the effort in to see why this so spectacularly significant.

LordBobbbin
19 Jul 11 14:37 Joined: 01 Sep 08 | Topic/replies: 1,370 | Blogger: LordBobbbin's blog
Actually, depending on how you want to do it, you can do Forex very cheaply. You have to be a bit careful with some of the bucket-shops out there, but I always found Oanda a workable platform for my modest needs - you can plunge with pennies if you wish... Metatrader 4 is a very solid free charting package. Use a few moving averages, draw a few trendlines, note down the swing-highs and lows and you've got a chance. Global-view is a pretty decent forum too.

I didn't realize you could use those sorts of amounts on the Forex but the trouble with that is that it is a 24 hours a day 5 1/2 days a week market which may not give you the signal you are after for hours (or maybe more) but with horse racing (i.e. new opportunity) there's a race just about every 5 minutes in Australia and 10 minutes in the UK.

That's what I'm talking about

Well yeah, that was why I moved from Forex to horse racing. I liked the fact that you didn't have to spend hours waiting for something to materialise. In horse racing, put your money down and, within a few minutes, you either win or lose. 

Mind you, I'm a lot more experienced now, so I'd like to think if I went back to Forex I wouldn't spend quite so long hooked to the screen and worrying about my positions. (The stop and limit orders work pretty well over there, so there's not really any reason to sit in front of the screen constantly.)  And the potential money is outrageous for anyone who wants to keep building their bank and upping their size, while in horse betting you're always going to be a little limited in how much you can put on. Oh well. I'll jump that fence when I come to it....

OK. Down yesterday - but up on the week to date. First race I thought I'd found the bottom of the market - favourite had steamed and met what looked to me to be a resistance point. Placed lay - and watched it drop 5 ticks within 1 or 2 seconds. Fatally hesitated for another 10 or so seconds. Further damage. redded up - and then watched it come back to almost its original level. Still have this entry point problem (I can see what I should have done on exit - red up at the first opportunity. Other views very welcome on this point). I'm taking the entry point issue as a discipline issue - no bet better than a bad one. The good thing is I'm still learning and (on my minimum stakes) am up. Even after a few weeks I can see things that were previously invisible. Carrying on with minimal stakes - this seems to me to be the best learning method - and positive about how much I'm likely to learn from this point forward.

You are learning but very very slowly.

You show the profile of a long term loser.

The site cannot exist without you.

Please keep doing what you are doing, our wages depend on it.

I doubt the entry point is a discipline issue, just lack of experience/knowledge. I'm no better.

Well, you can't learn from NOT doing. Don't worry about Bung Hole (miserable sod). The aim of the game is to be up long term (preferably weekly but at least monthly). And you'll never know if you don't have a go.

Just think about it. If you can become a successful trader, you will never have to study form again and then you don't have to give a toss about which horse wins the race. As soon as the race is set to start, you green (red) up and move onto the next race.

You sound like you're being very sensible and professional Slt. Just keep gathering experience and thinking about where you're going right and wrong. It's a long learning curve, but you sound like you're doing fine for this point in the process.

And if I was you, I'd put the likes of Bung on your block list. You certainly don't need him throwing pointless insults at you.

Lay quinlans horses 3 minutes before the off then back them when race starts

For what it's worth, I'm primarily a layer rather than a backer. But if I can spot one horse in a race in the form book that travels well, I'll back it for a place, and hope to trade out at a lower price before the business end in case it finds nothing when it comes off the bridle.

Day off today. My daughter's birthday!!! Going away for the weekend too so time to reflect on what I've learned - and not - so far. I still believe it's possible to make a long term profit but this will take patience and hard work. i knew that before I started so am fully signed up in that regard. £2 stakes seem to be serving me well - offering an opportunity to learn and make mistakes without it being the end of the world. evidently at the point that I increase stakes (some considerable way down the road) then getting matched for the full amount is likely to become an issue.

Have really valued the helpful responses to this thread - keep them coming.

You haven't recognised the helpful responses so how can you value them.

Total Richard. I love people like you.

can u not just tell us how you came about the answer when you get there? :-)

If you want to trade horses I think 2 small ones is worth ! big one, a horse with 2 humps is worth more
to trade with an arab as they go well in the sand and a horse with 3 legs is good trade if layed and is worth 100 backed, thats about all I know about trading horses!

Lots of clever faking and short squeeze type noves in UK racing - you can't trust "apparent" weight of money often as it is usually trying to push the price one way then to suddenly disappear and let the market move the opposite way. Chances are the same people who appear to have big money to back are actually filling up on lays from your backs below their big $$$s ready to pull the carpet to trade out for a profit as you rush to cover the "unexpected" reversal.  The problem is they fake it over and over but then don't and the move is genuine - so hard to fade their faking.  UK racing is hard to trade with confidence as you can't trust what you see often.

The stock markets have been fleecing the mugs for 100 years with this type of stuff and it is the bread and butter of Wall Street.

The answer? Watching like a hawk for tiny tiny signals to separate fakes from genuine moves will help a bit but is pretty tiresome.  Longer term trend moves would be more predictable if you have the time and patience.  Overall UK trading it is a hard way to make a $$ unless of course you become one of the big fakers I guess.

I suspect quite a few people have written some clever bots to do a sequences of fake, fake reverse type moves with random "appear to fake" but do a real move thrown in often enough to keep everyone guessing.  They sit back and rake it in - occasionally getting stung by those who study the form or have inside knowledge who take their fake with a big thankyou.  Overall though it must pay for them to tolerate the losses.

trading on sports exchanges is on a parallel with trading on stocks in many ways, there are the hawks and buzzards on wall street who rather like traders on say betfair look at movement in prices and volumes to try and steel a 1.01 profit, do that hundreds of times and you have made a unit, but then there are the owls, the knowledgeable few who actually spen time to study the businesses in and out, the current trends in respect of each business and using there vast expierience of there own pointers summise or predict the performance thus share value in future of shares, this also applies to sports exchanges. The difference in what the buzzards and hawks can make and the owls in the dark of uncertain results is big, the owl at night is the winner, his perception and insight keeps him going.
hes not a 1.01 like a hawk who can be seen and avoided by his prey, hes the original stealth hunter and he always makes his kill.

GB2, I disagree, you should use stop losses. Most traders trade price information and know nothing beyond that. Also trading allows one to use much large stakes that you should if you let bets ride. I think you use a hybrid of trading and form based betting but most traders just use the numbers and therefore can't let bets ride because they have no reason to think they have an edge.

Weight of money doesn't work anymore. It used to be like having a money tree in your garden. But not now. But that doesn't mean you can't trade the numbers, you just need to be much more sophisticated.

If you study the form hard enough and long enough you will always find the winner.....because the race will of finished!

:-)

Traded 19 races over the weekend. Red on one only. Have analysed my initial lays and found that they are less than BSP in more than 80 per cent of the cases. Not sure whether this is due to the markets I've entered or whether it's a reflection of the time at which I've entered them.

Glad football is back - started the correct score trading again. Some problems getting matched on the original back but have had a couple of modestly profitable markets already.

OK. Sure there will be no-one interested in this thread any more. Have concentrated on the trading rather than the talking for a few months. And it's gone well. Several times where I thought I couldn't do it - as some of the responses to my earlier posts suggested. Lord Bobbins, in particular (others too), I would like to thank you for your wise advice. It's paid off.

Many lessons learned. Even a little idea about form,tips,trainers etc goes a long way. Important learning lesson - as a trader you're not seeking to find the winner of the event but merely the way that the price will move pre-race. Big difference. If you can work out the factors that determine this and stay on the right side of them then you'll be OK. There will be down times - judicious use of stop loss will prevent them from being too bad - but maximising your profit in the good times is key. Lose small, lose small, lose small, win very big.

Main lesson - it can be done. It just takes the right mindset and sheer determination.

Just realised I've posted on my wife's account. Post above is from me.

Don't trust her on HR tips - Long Run was nailed on apparently.

(Don't think I'll be getting any marital favours tonight as a result of that last comment).

By the way. Bung It On nearly gave the game away up there. Took me a while to realise it, but he's right.

why do you connect sp whit your trades?
the sp change price in the 4-5 minutes before the start.

why is it important for you?

My advice forget horses and trade cricket in play , so much easier

Jacopo - because it is a gauge that you are reading the market correctly. For example if you are laying first then if your selected horses go off at a shorter price consistently, then you are analysing the market wrong. Which means you are regularly swimming against the tide. This is fine if you believe you have better information/insight on an individual race. But over the long term you will lose if this is the case. Therefore it's a crude but important marker.

Ratkin - know what you mean. Roll on the IPL.

Also, this is a tough game. Not impossible, but tough. Your profit expectations get worn down and all the bits of research that you read about (and think OTT) become essential daily chores.

But then you arrive at a realistic position regarding (a) whether you'll make a profit (b) how much that profit might be and (c) whether it's worth the candle. Good news for me is that the answer to (a) and (c) is yes. Answer to (b) is acceptable for now - exploring options for scaling up. Increasing stakes across the board is not necessarily the answer. Investing wisely is the way forward - working out how that is best achieved.

By the way, much more difficult than in-play football - which where I started and which provides the bread and butter.

Finally. Hats off to those who trade every race every day. You assimilate information much quicker than me. i trade a max of three a day. My profitability would increase greatly if I could up that - but I work on 80% prep and 20% actual trading in the markets (probably understated that split). Those who can go into a market cold 10 mins before the off and turn a regular profit have my admiration.

Often check out the forum but never ever posted before because I find most threads of no interest and even less use, but came across this thread recently and its prompted me to participate at last. 

Slt2005, your comments from the beginning are thoughtful and I recognise a kindred spirit in your approach.  I am sure you are making profits, though scaling them up is tough as you know.  You have even received a few interesting replies (although the majority are still dross).

For what its worth here is my two penneth:

Never stop looking for new angles, edges or ways to improve
Always apply a stop loss strategy
And of course never ever chase losses

Greybeard - sorry for the delay in responding. I don't get so much opportunity to check the form these days.

Thank you for your helpful comments - it sounds like we are indeed kindred spirits.

You make a key point when you talk about constantly needing to learn and improve. This is my focus ofr the coming months. It feels easier to do that now I know I can make a steady profit - if I try something new and results deteriorate I always have the tried and trusted to fall back on. But the markets change continuously. As I mentioned earlier I started with football correct scores. For a while I had a way of working that delivered a steady drip of profit. But that market has changed - in the Premier League at least - and it was time for a new approach. I still keep an eye on that market, and when market conditions are good (which is now increasingly rare) I will enter. But never when the conditions are questionable.

Discipline is a much mentioned subject on here. For me discipline was taking on a new sport and sticking to minimum stakes but crucially treating each trade as though it was for 100 times the amount actually staked. No chasing. And no engaging in behaviours that would be acceptable on £2 stakes but not on £200 or £2000. Quite strange to feel really down walking away £1 down at the end of a day - but knowing that would have been much much worse on the stakes commonly used on here.

Taking this approach bought me time - time to learn. It also allowed me to study the markets dispassionately. When should I enter, when should I not? When should I leave? Watching the markets themselves taught me more than any 'magic system' and crucially was the catalyst to develop my trading skills. The amount I've learned during this period is unbelievable - things I'd never have considered. And the amount I still have to learn is so very much more. I am a average/poor trader. But if I can carry on my rate of progress I have a shot at being an average/good one.

Just re-reading my own thread. Embarrassing some of it. But lessons learned early. Over time my approach has developed and profits continue to steadily increase. My reason for posting this is mainly to say that it is clear to me that it is possible to be profitable here - one of the main qualities that seems to me to be needed is patience (and another, persistence). Time spent getting to know the markets has really paid off - looking at my last post, I'd say I'm an averagely skilled trader now. Looking forward to being good.

tell me slt are you trying to do this with the betfair standard site or are you using bet angel or one of the other add ons

You have a good attitude but you clearly have no idea what you're doing.

Didn't realise how old first post was, nice to see you're doing better at least.

slt, would you mind posting a P&L please? Also, what stakes do you use, and do you trade just on the numbers on the screen?

Hi slt Are you still trying this or did you have to give it up, I have been reading a lot about it over the last few months and like you thought I would like to give it a go! I just don't think I could dedicate the time and effort needed to succeed