Trading horses - any advice?

wow a lot of newbies posting on the general forum the last few days... Did you try the horse racing forum???

Well at least those are responses. You may well be correct - this game may not be for me. But it would be helpful if you could say why. That is what I'm asking.

Posted this on GB because I'm thinking of another strategy in another sport. Similar considerations likely to apply.

Best advice I've had so far. Correct scores then (pre-match)?

lay to back? how will that work?

I would not use stop losses. You just open yourself to losing money to spoofers. Take small bets that you think are value using your own judgement of the event and if they become no longer good value then close them.
Normally this would be at a profit. The only reason to take a loss is if something definite has happened that you think the market has underreacted to. For instance in cricket you might lay the draw at 3.0 and then the weather changes and you think that it is now very probably going to be a draw, but the odds are still 2.0, then you are justified to "red up" and take a loss.
Do not take a loss unless you have definite information that makes you reconsider your initial view. Take small enough bets that you can afford to run them and take the loss if necessary.

sorry bud. just realised my stupid comment. i must be more tired than i thought. good luck

Slt, in all honesty, it doesn't sound as though you've been betting long enough to come to any conclusions at all. As far as I can see, you've had two days of betting and you're already pondering whether you're moving in the right direction.

At this early point, dispel any thoughts of whether you're 'cracking it'. For the next few days, just place tiny bets. Better yet, don't place any bets at all. Simply make a note of your pick in each race and write down the price that you would have got. When you've made a decent profit over the course of several days, you might want to put real money (but still small stakes) behind it.

If you're doing the horses, you should probably be spending a lot of your time reading past race results. Take the top two finishers and then look at their form coming into the race and compare it with that of the other horses. Look at every aspect of the form and ask yourself where the top horses appeared to have an edge over the other runners? How could you have known they would be strong contenders before the race started? If you spend a lot of your time doing that, you should start to get an idea of what's important in a winning horse.

Bear in mind, as well, that a lot of races will always remain hard for the majority of us to decipher. Over a 7/8-race card, you should be looking for just one or two races where you can bet with conviction. Many people like to play race after race, but it's very hard to be profitable unless you're selective.

By the way, this game needs a lot of patience and hard work. If you're of the opinion that it's going to take you a few weeks to become a strong player (and most newcomers do seem to think this way), then you should drop that notion right now.  Your early training really should be all about reading as much form and watching as many races as possible, and asking yourself how you could have found the top finishers in each case.  Later on, you'll want to concentrate more on whether a horse's price is giving you good value or not (most obvious winners will be poor value), but for the time being you just want to get an idea of why some horses will win a race and most won't.

I guess that 2% never listened either, page-413.

There's nothing to stop him, apart from his own emotions, going
small loss, small loss, small loss, small loss, big win-repeat

His big winners wiping out his small losses from previous races.

Having adequate cover with other exchanges/books, back up ISP and not getting into a position where he gets into a situation where he lets a bad loss go in play and letting a big pre race green go in play because the odds dictate he should.

The cutting losses quickly and letting profits run is often used but is, from a human emotions point of view, difficult to do.

Vis/buzzer

Implied in your posts is whether or not to use stoploss. Another way is double your position at what appears to be the bottom of the market. Trouble is - when do you know you've reached the bottom? Have tried this a few times. Succeeded most times - redded out for far reduced loss or even minor profit. But when it's gone wrong i've found myself in trouble - even having identified what seem to be the resistance points. This approach seems to me to be doomed to failure. Seems to me the small loss, small loss, big win scenario is more likely to pay off long term. Thoughts?

Good points Cardinal. If it was me, though, I would concentrate on laying the favourite. That gives you a focal point, and you can use the favourite as a measuring stick for the entire field. What factors are in the fave's favour? Which ones go against him? How many other horses have the possibility of beating him?

While you can't assume a favourite is overbet, the typical punter who doesn't have a firm fix on the race (and they're essentially the ones you want to be taking advantage of) is far more likely to place his money on the favourite than on any other horse in the field. Particularly in the final minutes before the race goes off, there's every chance there'll be too much money going on the fave. And in any 8-race card, you'll probably find two or three faves who are sent off at prices that don't reflect their true chances of winning.

You've got to view it over a number of races - Think, if I was to back this horse at these odds, would I expect that horse to lose or make me money over 10 races?  However, if you're careful, there are definitely a decent number of mispriced favourites. And determining whether the fave is mispriced or not is probably going to be an easier task at first than finding the value horse in a field of 12 or 15.

Thanks Slt.  It's certainly tricky, and a case of feeling your way in - it's very easy to watch a series of favourites getting beaten, and then wade in with your own money just as a sequence of short-priced winners kicks off! - but there are definitely possibilities.   

And you make a very good point when you suggest that the punters are even more likely to be lumping on after they've been stung by a big favourite going down. I know to my own cost that a chasing punter is rarely thinking rationally.

Good luck!

Good to hear you're still above water slt!     What markets do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

I see. So you're trying to trade the momentum coming into a race, and then attempting to close the position just before the off? Your strategy does seem to involve a lot of trying to interpret what the crowd's thinking, which I'd imagine is never an easy thing to get right - even with lots of experience - and could lead to a fair amount of frustration.

Are you keeping records of how you'd be faring if you simply left the positions on and let the races run through to their finish? Personally, I'd find it less scary if I was trying to base my picks more on something tangible - such as the form of the horses - rather than the rather fickle pyschology of the crowd. (It's certainly smart to look for races where the public are pushing the price down a bit too much, but I still think I'd find it difficult to have any sort of confidence in my pick unless my primary reason for laying it was that its form failed to justify its odds.)

Lord Bobbbin. Yes I am keeping records. That's how I found my correct scores strategy - paper traded enough alternatives to know that they didn't work. I've noticed that my lay bet is consistently below BSP - I'm waiting for downward surges in what appears to be races where the favourite is overbet by a fair degree. And then trading out. I (think that) I understand what you're saying - would I be better to let it run. On my small sample, yes. But prepared to keep £2 trading until some sort of more statistically significant trend emerges. I'm hoping that patience, caution and study will be my friend.

Thank you. Sweetchild. I won't ask you to reveal. (But 0=0 and 1-0 to favourites?) I presume that this is a successful strategy for you. Mine is an in-play strategy - doesn't appear that often but is a steady earner.

If you know on a Sat punters back favs at any price then that is the only day you should be trading

So we know 35% of favs win and you would be well down backing them all in the long term.

How does that help this trader?

The Vis - even I know that's not the way forward. Just an observation - based on very little stats. When there's been a number of outsiders win on a Saturday backing seems to get (even more) irrational on the last races of the day. Not something I'd act on on this stage.

Ocho - wise words indeed. The next thing I need to develop is the ability to red up early but also know when to let a winning position develop and green up at the right time. out of interest - do you trade UK races (I assume that would be the middle of the night for you). Very grateful for any further thoughts from you.