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Who or what makes a price suddenly contract on a football match here?
I'm looking at the Bolton Arsenal game, the price had been steady all week and then it suddenly shortens dramatically
This is not infrequent
All relevant information is known, Arsenal were offered at 1.8 by bookmakers. It isn't a great price and yet it crashes. Is there some sort of football pricewise or similar that makes a price shorten like this?
I'm looking at the Bolton Arsenal game, the price had been steady all week and then it suddenly shortens dramatically
This is not infrequent
All relevant information is known, Arsenal were offered at 1.8 by bookmakers. It isn't a great price and yet it crashes. Is there some sort of football pricewise or similar that makes a price shorten like this?
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Probably due to big money (in Asia ?) wanting to get on.
Is it smart money from Asia or is there some other unknown betting force from Asia I am unaware of?
Not smart money, just big money. Sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses, just because it comes from Asia does not mean the people placing it are any more clued up then people here.
As an example, a year or two ago, there was a huge gamble on Stevenage to beat Port Vale in an FA Cup first round replay, leading to 4.4 being available on the league side and Stevenage being odds on! Now I have no idea who in Asia caused this, but they must have been a total mug as anyone who knows the first thing about football knew the odds were laughably wrong, and won accordingly.
As an example, a year or two ago, there was a huge gamble on Stevenage to beat Port Vale in an FA Cup first round replay, leading to 4.4 being available on the league side and Stevenage being odds on! Now I have no idea who in Asia caused this, but they must have been a total mug as anyone who knows the first thing about football knew the odds were laughably wrong, and won accordingly.
So I guess there is good money in either laying those or backing the others...
Despite Port Vale winning that match, I would be confident the main drivers of the price move, whoever they were, knew both an awful lot more about that match and football in general. And will be less muggish than any posters on this forum.
Just my view.
Just my view.
The silverback, fine, you are entitled to your view, but anyone particapting in that gamble which drove a conference side's price to odds on when playing a team a division above them is clueless in my book. And I said so on the thread at the time.
I'd go as far to say it was one of the biggest mug gambles I'd ever seen in betting.
I'd go as far to say it was one of the biggest mug gambles I'd ever seen in betting.
The original price of 2.3 was about correct, in that it stated that both teams were of approximate equal ability, a top conference side versus a mid table team a division above. The kick off price of around 1.8 indicated that Stevenage were not just superior, but vastly so. Like I say, anyone who knows anything about football knew that to be total rubbish.
Major market movers aren't like all these people you mention who think they know about football. They really do know about football. And also about betting. And often information nowhere near the public domain.
The people who move markets have money, they have money because they are extremely good at what they do.
If you see a move your better going in that direction yourself than opposing it imo, even if the prices do seem "crazy".
If you see a move your better going in that direction yourself than opposing it imo, even if the prices do seem "crazy".
There's the initial move and then the overreaction that always follows which is the best point to get involved imo
Oh, so to make a price change you actually have to know something about football and betting, do you? 
What utter codswallop.
I suppose that these high rollers that ladbrokes keep bragging about how much they win from are all experts, are they?
The idea that these donks in Asia know more about an FA Cup first round replay (between two sides the vast majority of which will never even have heard of) rather than people who follow the leagues in this country of is truly comical. What information "nowhere near the public domain" did they suddenly discover in the day or two prior to the game, prey tell?
If you want to think they are some sort of gambling / football geniuses then fine, let there be many more gambles like that one! The truth is in that instance they were just clueless guessers like so many others...
What utter codswallop.
I suppose that these high rollers that ladbrokes keep bragging about how much they win from are all experts, are they?
The idea that these donks in Asia know more about an FA Cup first round replay (between two sides the vast majority of which will never even have heard of) rather than people who follow the leagues in this country of is truly comical. What information "nowhere near the public domain" did they suddenly discover in the day or two prior to the game, prey tell?
If you want to think they are some sort of gambling / football geniuses then fine, let there be many more gambles like that one! The truth is in that instance they were just clueless guessers like so many others...
turtle, I don't think it's about the cleverness of individuals.
As the Asian betting market is much bigger than the European one, the pricing will be more accurate.
Just like the pricing on an EPL match is likely to be much more efficient than a random eastern European game, because so much more is bet on it.
As the Asian betting market is much bigger than the European one, the pricing will be more accurate.
Just like the pricing on an EPL match is likely to be much more efficient than a random eastern European game, because so much more is bet on it.
What else was there to lump on this afternoon other than arsenal? Thats the way people think.
Smashing Arsenal in to 1.66 when they had been 1.80+ for days before doesn't seem to shrewd to me
Sure, mug highrollers can move a market. But, and I don't profess to know exactly how it works, often the guys they bet with will know it's mug money so there won't necessarily be a market move.
Turtles - what i don't think you realise is that all the big European syndicates bet in Asia regardless of where they are based. They can't "get down" otherwise and betfair is nowhere near liquid enough to accomodate them. It's not all mug Asians betting in Asia. The main Asian market movers are likely to be based in England.
Turtles - what i don't think you realise is that all the big European syndicates bet in Asia regardless of where they are based. They can't "get down" otherwise and betfair is nowhere near liquid enough to accomodate them. It's not all mug Asians betting in Asia. The main Asian market movers are likely to be based in England.
Tobermory. I don't know if it was shrewd or not. But the sums these people bet in requires a liquid market so I shouldn't think betting early is an option.
The Investor, I don't see any evidence to support the idea that just because the bet originates in Asia, the price has to be accurate.
Like I said in my example, the opening price of 2.3 was correct for the reasons I mentioned. The sp price of 1.8 or so was total rubbish. And I can't honestly imagine why an FA Cup first round replay was of such interest to them in any case!
Like I said in my example, the opening price of 2.3 was correct for the reasons I mentioned. The sp price of 1.8 or so was total rubbish. And I can't honestly imagine why an FA Cup first round replay was of such interest to them in any case!
If money represents information and there is more money on Asian markets it's a safe assumption.
no money = no information = football forum (dont tell them i said that 
)
(dont tell them i said that )
Hello there ÖÐÎÄÂÛ̳.
My guess is this. People looked at the game and saw that Arsenal had everything to play for in this game as they are (or rather were still chasing the league title) whilst bolton had absolutely nothing to play for. Also the last game Arsenal played really well against a very good Tottenham game and were a bit unlucky not to win whilst Bolton got smashed 5-0.
People love to bet on what they think will happen rather than what is value and for many people these factors indicate that Arsenal just had to win. Yesterday Chelsea came in as well again because it was a game they just had to win.
When you notice this happening on other games does it tend to be the price of the favourite or a big team coming in at the last minute. It is for me. Do you see the price on Barca drifting wildly at the last minute when they are playing some lower table tripe at home and there is no new team news? I don't.
As for why there were large bets just before kick off, could be anyone or any reason, don't know why they have to come from Asia, other countries have rich people that like to bet. My guess would be that it is various bookmakers that have taken lots of bets on Arsenal to win for reasons mentioned above and are reducing their liability just before kick-off.
It is just a guess though and i'm just not quite into all this conspiracy theory stuff like how some asain triads have a member in the Arsenal club inner circle who has informed them and them only that "the Arsenal players really are up for it today even more so than usual".
It must be because i am some poorfor naive betfair user and not as "street" as other people.
My guess is this. People looked at the game and saw that Arsenal had everything to play for in this game as they are (or rather were still chasing the league title) whilst bolton had absolutely nothing to play for. Also the last game Arsenal played really well against a very good Tottenham game and were a bit unlucky not to win whilst Bolton got smashed 5-0.
People love to bet on what they think will happen rather than what is value and for many people these factors indicate that Arsenal just had to win. Yesterday Chelsea came in as well again because it was a game they just had to win.
When you notice this happening on other games does it tend to be the price of the favourite or a big team coming in at the last minute. It is for me. Do you see the price on Barca drifting wildly at the last minute when they are playing some lower table tripe at home and there is no new team news? I don't.
As for why there were large bets just before kick off, could be anyone or any reason, don't know why they have to come from Asia, other countries have rich people that like to bet. My guess would be that it is various bookmakers that have taken lots of bets on Arsenal to win for reasons mentioned above and are reducing their liability just before kick-off.
It is just a guess though and i'm just not quite into all this conspiracy theory stuff like how some asain triads have a member in the Arsenal club inner circle who has informed them and them only that "the Arsenal players really are up for it today even more so than usual".
It must be because i am some poorfor naive betfair user and not as "street" as other people.
if these mysterious asians are so clever, why do they crash the price rather than get on in stages at a better aggregate price?
so what have we established - that they're smart, or that they're impatient?
well if you had some information such as lineups well before everybody else you've got a set period of time to get your money matched before the lineups are released or somebody else beats you to it.
Like the Spurs match last season, somebody clearly knew the lineups in advance and the odds went ballistic.,
Like the Spurs match last season, somebody clearly knew the lineups in advance and the odds went ballistic.,
that would be fine in the case of surprise team selections (eg the odds shift on the man u game yesterday), but what was the surprise in the arsenal selection today?
as far as i can see there was no real change in the fundamentals behind the arsenal game.
as far as i can see there was no real change in the fundamentals behind the arsenal game.
There was no change , no new info whatever
Anyone who just follows the price down as low as they have to in order to get the bet on is a mug however much they are betting
Anyone who just follows the price down as low as they have to in order to get the bet on is a mug however much they are betting
How do we know it is Asians? - I always thought it was the Swedish betting maching......
I think at least SOME of the big changes are bookies laying off liabilities in a lump? Why they don't drip it a bit I'm not sure as they would you'd think get better prices.
i think the result of other teams have an impact on teams odds. For instance the fact that both manchester and chelse winning before arsenal played would make them(arsenal) more motivated to win inorder to keep the race for the second place and the title, hence, a shorter odd compared t the previous days. by the way if manchester had lost or drew i think most probably the odds for arsenal win would have shorten a lot more.
It all seems a little strange to me! 50 million China men watching Stevenage v Port Vale, how bizarre.
Well i dont really know any specifics,... but to Cite old Kaiser Willhelm:
"Beware of the yellow Danger"
"Beware of the yellow Danger"
turtleshead could it have been possible that that match you mentioned was manipulation. These guys could start a move like that and then switch to layers when people start piling in?
I suspect that's often the case WWCD. Happens regularly in horse racing with the favourite's price swinging back and forward like a pendulum. Another stupidity of the betfair interface.
of course, there's also the possibility that big name teams get laid at stupid prices to the locals in asia, then the layers hedge on here overnight.
would love to see the books on epl games in the far east. I bet there are overrounds that would make baldfred come in his ill-fitting trousers.
would love to see the books on epl games in the far east. I bet there are overrounds that would make baldfred come in his ill-fitting trousers.
Most of you are missing the point that, despite the market being based in Asia, the largest movers of the majority of the Asian markets are in fact more likely to be European based professional bettors / syndicates than crazy Asian punters.
sorry silverback, but i just don't buy that pros and syndicates would bet in such a price insensitive way.
Hence the immense liquidity on Asian handicaps on betfair?
betting at everything down to 1.66 in one go rather than feeding money in at 1.7x is totally price insensitive.
if it happened at 1000th the scale we'd all be laughing and calling them mugs. but somehow if you do exactly the same stupid thing with a sh!tload of money you become inscrutable and shrewd beyond the comprehension of mere mortals.
if it happened at 1000th the scale we'd all be laughing and calling them mugs. but somehow if you do exactly the same stupid thing with a sh!tload of money you become inscrutable and shrewd beyond the comprehension of mere mortals.
If they are throwing 000s away in alot of matches how come they have so much 
Didn't the same thing happen in reverse with Villa v Stoke? Mugs.
I think professional footballers would be a source of huge mug money
I've never really checked how shrewd these plunges are though - they may well be professional syndicates
I've never really checked how shrewd these plunges are though - they may well be professional syndicates
Some win, some lose, just like any other bet on here.
Hence the immense liquidity on Asian handicaps on betfair?
Exactly silverback. Betfair couldn't even sell Asian handicaps to the Asians by going 1% flat rate commission on those markets for a lengthy trial period.
Exactly silverback. Betfair couldn't even sell Asian handicaps to the Asians by going 1% flat rate commission on those markets for a lengthy trial period.
They sold it to me though.
I was on a 5% comm rate, and ended up paying 4% of GP in commission back in 2007.
The good old days
I was on a 5% comm rate, and ended up paying 4% of GP in commission back in 2007.
The good old days
one of the reasons you get significant moves just before the off, is that a lot of syndicates/system players only place their bets in the last 10 minutes before ko.
Well that is pretty stupid of them, how would they have an advantage over anyone else when everyone has the same information then?
Okay, I was under the impression that the pros bet when they have info that most do not, such as early team news. How would this be the case 10 minutes before kick off
team news is an over-rated bit of information. i think bets placed on early info make up a miniscule % of total money bet. (in major games anyway). and i think a lot of the early information is misunderstand/wrong/incorrectly quantified/subject to change.
team news is an over-rated bit of information. i think bets placed on early info make up a miniscule % of total money bet. (in major games anyway). and i think a lot of the early information is misunderstand/wrong/incorrectly quantified/subject to change.
team news is an over-rated bit of information. i think bets placed on early info make up a miniscule % of total money bet. (in major games anyway). and i think a lot of the early information is misunderstand/wrong/incorrectly quantified/subject to change.
team news is an over-rated bit of information. i think bets placed on early info make up a miniscule % of total money bet. (in major games anyway). and i think a lot of the early information is misunderstand/wrong/incorrectly quantified/subject to change.
(just in case anyone missed it)
(just in case anyone missed it)
I just don't see pros lumping on 10 minutes before the start, when the prices are most likely to be accurate!
It's also when their models are most likely to be accurate.
Investor ~ do you think the post is comical or just the fact I felt the need to triple post ? Always interested in your views.
As Lori says, it's also when the models are most accurate. My little system for example is back tested using odds I have taken just before kick-off, so that is when I think I should be placing my bets. Sometimes the price moves my way, and sometimes against in the run up to ko. I haven't noticed a correlation between price movement before the kick-off and winning bets.
As Lori says, it's also when the models are most accurate. My little system for example is back tested using odds I have taken just before kick-off, so that is when I think I should be placing my bets. Sometimes the price moves my way, and sometimes against in the run up to ko. I haven't noticed a correlation between price movement before the kick-off and winning bets.
To clarify - I would imagine the earlier markets are driven by information that is less freely available. Modelling what information you do and don't have leads to a wider margin for error being required.
I'd love to have the early team news for any sport as it would definitely be a profitable proposition as you can bet against people who don't have the same information.
I'd love to have the early team news for any sport as it would definitely be a profitable proposition as you can bet against people who don't have the same information.
I can understand people lumping on just before KO and taking a couple of ticks hit, because there's not alternative to drip the money in at that point. if you make a price 1.63 and it's 1.7, then the logical thing to do is feed in to get as much on as you can at 1.7 till just before KO, then take everything down you consider value.
but we're talking about people crashing a price 12 hours before a game.
but we're talking about people crashing a price 12 hours before a game.
Agree with Loserschase. Team News rarely even requires 'information' anyway, it can be easily anticipated by anyone who knows anything about football:
eg If Chelsea fail to beat Spurs on Saturday there will not be a full strength United team at Arsenal the next day because the league will be all but over and the Champion's League semi 2nd leg is 3 days afterwards .The market will anticipate this by 8pm but the following day you will get people saying 'Rooneys not playing:Lay United!' without considering that the odds already reflect that a 2nd string team is going to play.
I don't get this 'Asian Money' theory anyway . Surely huge amounts being bet close to the off is what happens on every market anyway.
Horse Racing: the 3:00 race on Tuesday will have about £800 matched at midnight on Monday, about 4k by 12:00pm Tuesday , £25k by 2:40 and £500,000 at the off.
Most people just bet from one event to the next, not thinking about the 3:00 race til they've watched the 2:50 .
IMO the Biggest Betfair Myth is that the Late Money is smarter than the Early Money. The people involved in markets from the outset sem to know what they are doing i'd say .Any obviously wrong prices are taken very quickly .As there are only small amounts matched the people involved in making the market on many events may appear to bet in small amounts but they well be because they are staking 0.25% of their Banks and are betting in hundreds of markets.
eg If Chelsea fail to beat Spurs on Saturday there will not be a full strength United team at Arsenal the next day because the league will be all but over and the Champion's League semi 2nd leg is 3 days afterwards .The market will anticipate this by 8pm but the following day you will get people saying 'Rooneys not playing:Lay United!' without considering that the odds already reflect that a 2nd string team is going to play.
I don't get this 'Asian Money' theory anyway . Surely huge amounts being bet close to the off is what happens on every market anyway.
Horse Racing: the 3:00 race on Tuesday will have about £800 matched at midnight on Monday, about 4k by 12:00pm Tuesday , £25k by 2:40 and £500,000 at the off.
Most people just bet from one event to the next, not thinking about the 3:00 race til they've watched the 2:50 .
IMO the Biggest Betfair Myth is that the Late Money is smarter than the Early Money. The people involved in markets from the outset sem to know what they are doing i'd say .Any obviously wrong prices are taken very quickly .As there are only small amounts matched the people involved in making the market on many events may appear to bet in small amounts but they well be because they are staking 0.25% of their Banks and are betting in hundreds of markets.
I know a trader for the Hong Kong Jockey Club (Hong Kong's tote operator and the only legally licensed place to bet on the football here) and i know for a fact that they offset some of their liabilities on BF although most of that is dripped into the market rather than taken in the last few 10 minutes unless they have a large wager come in. They have lots of room to maneuver in terms of pricing as this is what is currently available as i write this:
Schalke vs Man Utd match odds market:
BF: 3.7 / 3.3 / 2.3
HKJC: 3.35 / 3.05 / 2.05
Stoke vs Wolves match odds:
BF: 1.88 / 3.6 / 5.1
HKJC: 1.75 / 3.35 / 4.1
I wish i could lay at those kind of over rounds!
Schalke vs Man Utd match odds market:
BF: 3.7 / 3.3 / 2.3
HKJC: 3.35 / 3.05 / 2.05
Stoke vs Wolves match odds:
BF: 1.88 / 3.6 / 5.1
HKJC: 1.75 / 3.35 / 4.1
I wish i could lay at those kind of over rounds!
Just checked and HKJC were offering Arsenal at 1.57 at kick off on Sunday so again - lots of room for the asian bookmakers to maneuver!
ignore that - people whould not be rewarded for being too lazy to google.
So what's the theory on what just happened to the ManU odds . 2.36 to 2.22. number of spikes including 120k.
. 2.36 to 2.22. number of spikes including 120k.
It has to be asian money, that sort of money doesn't exist anywhere in europe.
Oh and it's super-smart money as well.
Oh and it's super-smart money as well.
well, that makes more sense to me. presumably a combination of heavyweights whose models have identified value contingent on team news and major sports books from europe and further afield laying off.
Interesting how, once clobbered like that, it tends to sit there - i.e. it's not recovering much, now stabilised on 2.22 verusus 2.32 before godzilla stomped in and whacked it with 100s of k.
one thing to consider is the possibility of a kind of stampede effect. if you have a lot of heavy hitters waiting to get on, either for value or risk management reasons, then seeing the price start to crash on large volume may trigger all of them to pile in to get some of it on the way down.
It's Schalke04 laying his fave team as a cover bet for one of his challenges.
Bang on the money this time by the looks of it...
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